Category: 3. Business

A line snaked around the lobby of McMenamins’ Kennedy School Hotel in Northeast Portland on Saturday. Hundreds gathered for the company’s first ever Dry January Fest, a showcase of the bubbling interest in non-alcoholic beverages.

More people have been participating in Dry January, when people swear off alcohol for the month following the excesses of the holidays.

Rachel Flesher, district manager of special events for McMenamins, said they have been seeing more demand from customers for tasty beverages free of booze. That, in turn, inspired an event based around Dry January.

(Editor’s note: McMenamins is a corporate sponsor of Oregon Public Broadcasting. OPB’s sponsors do not shape or influence our editorial coverage.)

“We’re always trying to think of new, fun ways to entertain our guests and the NA market just keeps growing,” Flesher said.

Within minutes of opening, the Kennedy School gym was packed with people lining up for samples of non-alcoholic beers, wines, cocktails and shrubs. The large turnout surprised some of the staff, and even those who bought tickets.

Cameron Larson of Portland sat down with a non-alcoholic Old Fashioned. Larson has participated in Dry January the past three years and said it used to be difficult to find an alcohol-free drink “that actually tasted decent.”

Now, everywhere he goes, he finds a greater variety and quality in these beverages.

“It’s not centralized to Portland or Eugene or Seattle — it’s in the biggest and smallest communities,” Larson said. “It’s pretty inspiring.”

The festival comes as enthusiasm for non-alcoholic drinks has spiked. A Gallup poll published in August 2025 found that 54% of Americans said they drink alcohol, the lowest percentage since Gallup began studying the figure 90 years ago.

Stevie Shaw of Hillsboro attended Dry January Fest and said she stopped drinking last August. The variety of non-alcoholic drinks now available has made the transition easier, even for those who only stop drinking for the month, she said.

“It’s a great reminder that it’s a good time to take a break and give more time to yourself,” Shaw said.

And more businesses in the Pacific Northwest are investing in the creation of non-alcoholic drinks and spirits, as demand for some forms of alcohol has waned. Last year saw the craft brewery industry struggle in Oregon and elsewhere. Rogue Ales and Spirits closed its brewery and restaurants in November, before filing for Chapter 7 bankruptcy.

That shift was on full display at the Dry January Fest.

McMenamins corporate chef Mary Minor ran a booth on shrubs, which are often made from alcoholic vinegars. Several years ago, McMenamins’ pubs ordered very little of her non-alcoholic shrubs. Now, they order them by the gallon.

“We are having to do a lot more research and development in that area,” Minor said.

Minor said younger people want more variety in their drinks, whether that’s no alcohol or just less than a traditional beer.

Based on the success of Dry January Fest, McMenamins might consider more events based around non-alcoholic items, Flesher said.

Katherine Dawson is searching for siblings she’s never met.

The 35-year-old is one of an estimated 60,000 Australians who are donor-conceived and whose biological fathers’ identities were kept a mystery.

“I was told you’re not allowed to know who he is, you’re not allowed to know who any of your siblings are and I was really blocked from knowing that information,” Ms Dawson said.

Ms Dawson began researching the missing pieces of her genetic heritage by visiting clinics to find records and taking ancestry DNA tests.

So far, she’s confirmed she has 53 half-siblings living across South Australia, Victoria and Queensland, as well as overseas.

But she believes she may have up to 700 siblings, including some who may not know they are donor-conceived.

She’s desperately trying to find them to pass on potentially life-saving medical advice about an elevated cancer risk that runs in the family.

“I can’t just sit back and go live my life and forget about it,” she said.

State register allows ‘personal journeys’

Ms Dawson is one of 428 people on South Australia’s Donor Conception Register, which was launched in February last year.

The SA government has described it as the first publicly accessible electronic register of its kind in Australia to operate in real-time with retrospective effect.

The online register allows adults who were conceived through donated sperm, egg or embryo in SA — and the parents of a donor-conceived person — to access information about their donor and siblings, such as names, date of birth and gender.

The register is backdated to include treatments carried out in the 1970s and donations made under the condition of anonymity prior to September 2004.

As of December 2025, the register included 428 individuals — 53 donors, 115 donor-conceived, and 153 donor-recipient parents. The remaining 107 were profiles generated for minors whose personal information is protected.

SA Health deputy chief executive for clinical system support and improvement, Robyn Lindsay, said the register allowed people to share personal information, such as contact details or medical history.

Prior to 1988, doctors and clinics had no legal requirements to keep records of donor conception treatments.

Ms Lindsay said finding historical records had been challenging, given that some fertility clinics had closed and records could be damaged or missing.

“Information about the donor, and those who received treatment, were even deliberately kept quite separately,” Ms Lindsay said.

“Records deteriorate over time and doctors’ writing, even in the first instance, is often hard to read.”

She said SA Health was trying to verify records with the Births, Deaths and Marriages registry — a process that could take months to complete.

“It’s really important that this information is of high integrity, and it is verified, so that can be frustrating when people are looking for a complete set of information quickly,” Ms Lindsay said.

An urgent health warning

Ms Dawson met her biological father in 2023. She discovered that he was a prolific donor who visited multiple clinics in Victoria over at least six years during the 1980s and under different names.

She hopes the register will be able to link her to more siblings in SA and warn them of a family-cancer risk.

“There might be siblings I’ve got already that have developed bowel cancer, given some of them could be in their 40s now and they should be checking from their mid-20s,” she said.

Ms Dawson said she’d like to see a national register established. It would help other donor-conceived people easily access their genetic information without having to navigate legislation in different states and territories.

“We should be thought about in the long term, and prevented from the potential trauma and potential difficulties and hardships of essentially being stuffed around,” she said.

Growing calls for a national register

Bec Kilday’s search for her donor’s identity has also taken her across state borders.

The 36-year-old, who grew up in Adelaide, has been genetically linked to a Victorian donor whose sperm was sent interstate.

“I actually reached out to the fertility clinic that my parents used fairly early on in the journey and asked for what information they might have available … and I got no response,” Ms Kilday said.

But Ms Kilday has so far discovered 27 half-siblings and believes there are more.

She joined the register hoping to uncover more information — not only for herself, but for her donor and Victorian-based siblings, whose IVF procedures weren’t performed in SA.

Ms Kilday said a national register would eliminate some of the difficulties she had experienced in seeking information from interstate.

“It’s not to say a national register is necessarily going to be quicker — it’s just that if they had access to all of the information it wouldn’t be double handling as much,” she said.

Australian Medical Association SA president Peter Subramaniam said the development of a national framework was a “logical next step”.

“We are one country and people in Australia move around,” Dr Subramaniam said.

He said having a patient’s medical history was a huge benefit for doctors to start preventative early treatments and screenings, but added that it was essential that personal data be handled with sensitivity.

“One of the key risks for any registry such as this is to make sure we get the right information, so we need to have data integrity and data fidelity,” Dr Subramaniam said.

In September, a federal “rapid review” of the assisted reproductive technology and IVF sector highlighted the risk of unregulated donations and the absence of a national donor register.

The report found while some jurisdictions have their own donor register, the databases are managed independently and are not linked.

“The lack of a nationally linked resource also compromises the ability of donor-conceived individuals to identify or verify donors, siblings, or medical information,” the report found.

The federal health department said ministers had agreed to make a referral to the Australian Law Reform Commission to explore options for harmonising and modernising relevant legislation nationally.

“Opportunities that seek to create more consistency in laws and regulations across jurisdictions for donations should be considered in the future to address this issue,” a spokesperson said.

Use of metformin did not reduce progression in male patients with low-risk prostate cancer on active surveillance, though the observed adverse effects (AEs) in patients with obesity may warrant further investigation, according to results from the randomized, double-blind phase 3 MAST trial (NCT01864096) published in the Journal of Clinical Oncology.

Among the 408 eligible patients who were enrolled in the trial and randomly assigned to either the metformin arm (n = 205) or the placebo arm (n = 203), 144 experienced either therapeutic or pathologic progression, with 70 cases of progression in the metformin arm and 74 in the placebo arm. In the metformin arm and placebo arm, the progression-free survival (PFS) probability was 94% (95% CI, 90%-97%) and 96% (95% CI, 93%-99%), respectively, at 12 months, 62% (95% CI, 54%-70%) and 69% (95% CI, 62%-76%) at 24 months, and 58% (95% CI, 51%-67%) and 60% (95% CI, 53%-68%) at 36 months. Per the Kaplan-Meier survival curves, there was no significant difference in time to progression between the treatment arms (P = .59). Notably, the HR for progression in the metformin group was 1.09 (95% CI, 0.79-1.52).

Overall, pathologic progression was observed in 136 patients, with 66 instances in the metformin arm and 70 in the placebo arm. In the metformin arm and placebo arm, the PFS probability was 94% (95% CI, 91%-98%) and 96% (95% CI, 94%-99%), respectively, at 12 months, 64% (95% CI, 57% to 72%) and 70% (95% CI, 63% to 77%) at 24 months, and 58% (95% CI, 51% to 67%) and 61% (95% CI, 54% to 69%) at 36 months. No statistically significant difference was observed (P = .66; HR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.77-1.51).

A planned a priori analysis was stratified by body mass index (BMI). Patients with a BMI of 30 or greater who were assigned to the metformin group had a higher risk of pathologic progression per Kaplan-Meier survival curves.The HR for progression in the metformin group was 2.36 (95% CI, 1.21-4.59; P = .0092), highlighting the significantly increased risk associated with metformin use in this subgroup, whereas in patients with a BMI less than 30, the HR was 0.82 (95% CI, 0.55-1.23; P = .33). In the Cox proportional hazards model including the treatment group, BMI category, and interaction term, the interaction between BMI and treatment arm was significant (P = .0092).

Overall, the HR for progression in the metformin group was 1.09 (95% CI, 0.78-1.53; P = .60). In the BMI less than 30 and BMI of 30 or higher subgroups, the HRs were 0.86 (95% CI, 0.58-1.29; P = .48) and 2.19 (95% CI, 1.13-4.26; P = .021), respectively.

Further, therapeutic progression was observed in 45 patients, with 27 cases in the metformin arm and 18 in the placebo arm. In the metformin and placebo arms, the PFS probability was 97% (95% CI, 94% to 99%) and 98% (95% CI, 97% to 100%), respectively, at 12 months, 83% (95% CI, 77% to 89%) and 91% (95% CI, 87% to 95%) at 24 months, and 81% (95% CI, 75% to 88%) and 90% (95% CI, 86% to 95%) at 36 months. The difference between the 2 arms was not significant (HR, 1.73; 95% CI, 0.95-3.14; P = .068). The per-protocol sensitivity analysis revealed that the HR for the metformin group was 1.76 (95% CI, 0.97-3.20; P = .063).

“In conclusion, these findings demonstrate no benefit in adding metformin as a means of delaying progression among patients with low-risk [prostate cancer] on [active surveillance]. Furthermore, a potentially harmful effect was noted among obese men,” wrote lead study author Neil E Fleshner, MD, MPH, FRCSC, of the Division of Urologic Oncology at Princess Margaret Cancer Center of University Health Network in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

A total of 408 patients were included in the analysis and randomly assigned, in a 1:1 ratio, to either receive metformin at 850 mg once daily, escalating to 850 mg twice daily over 1 month, or receive placebo. Eligible patients were between 18 and 80 years old with a biopsy-confirmed, low-risk, localized prostate cancer, and decided to undertake expectant management as their primary treatment. Those who received prior prostate cancer treatment, had any prior use of metformin, sulfonylureas, thiazolidinediones, or insulin, and a diagnosis of type 1 or 2 diabetes were excluded from participation.

The median age of patients was 62.0 years (IQR, 57.5-67.0), and 93.5% of patients were White. Most patients had clinical stage T1c disease (93.7%). The mean baseline BMI was 28.0 kg/m² (SD, 4.0), and 73.4% were considered nonobese and defined as having a BMI less than 30.

The primary end point of the trial was time to progression, defined as the earliest occurrence of therapeutic or pathologic progression.

The B0 rate at 18 months was 27.3% in the metformin group and 28.1% in the placebo group (P = .880); at 36 months, it was 41.0% vs 31.1%, respectively (P = .181).

Regarding safety, the most reported adverse effects (AEs) were gastrointestinal, which occurred more frequently in the metformin group. Diarrhea occurred in 19% of the metformin group vs 8% of the placebo group, and nausea, dyspepsia, or abdominal pain occurred in 9% of the metformin group vs 1% of the placebo group. These AEs were typically mild or moderate in severity, and no significant differences were observed in serious AEs between the 2 groups.

Reference

Fleshner NE, Bernardino RM, Izawa J, et al. Metformin active surveillance trial in low-risk prostate cancer. J Clin Oncol. 2025;43(34):3662-3671. doi:10.1200/JCO-25-01070

The Australian dollar has been on a slow march down from a peak of 109 US cents achieved in July 2011.

The local currency approached 80 US cents during the depths of the COVID-19 emergency in February 2021.

Five years on, it has fallen roughly 12 per cent from that level, now at around 70 US cents.

The depreciation has been significant enough to benefit exporters, while providing a headwind for importers and travellers.

The local currency now sits at a crossroads, especially considering recent geopolitical events.

The key question now is, as it evolves, who will be the winners and losers?

What’s driving the dollar?

The value of the Australian dollar, or the “Aussie” as it’s known in market circles, is driven by several forces. 

They include the interest rate differential between the United States and Australia, the prices of commodities, geopolitical factors, and overall market sentiment.

And when looking specifically at the Australian-US dollar cross rate, the value of the greenback is also important.

While the Australian dollar has been in a steady decline over the past five years, it found strength in 2025, gaining roughly 8 per cent.

In trade-weighted terms, it has also moved from a low of 58.8 US cents in April 2025 to 62.3 in December 2025.

This has largely been driven by firming commodity prices and a weakening US dollar.

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Weaker greenback

It is the weaker greenback that has been central to the Australian dollar’s gradual increase over the past year.

Indeed, the US dollar index, which tracks the value of the greenback, fell from around 110 in January to as low as 96 in July.

But analysts say further Australian dollar strength will require more than weakness in the US dollar.

“The Aussie dollar is up about 8 per cent for the year while the US dollar index is down about 9 per cent, which highlights that global investors looking for an alternative to the greenback are not enthused by the Aussie, notwithstanding the RBA’s hawkishness,” InTouch Capital Markets senior currency strategist Sean Callow said.

After bottoming again in September, the Australian dollar found further strength for a few months, but since mid-November, a clear narrative has emerged: US interest rates could fall further still, while Australian interest rates may increase.

There’s a positive correlation between a nation’s interest rates and the value of its currency.

The potential for easier US monetary policy and tighter Australian monetary policy is pushing the value of the Aussie dollar higher.

“The Aussie dollar would likely appreciate, especially against low-yield peers, should the RBA remain hawkish amid inflation challenges,” RSM Australia economist Devika Shivadekar said.

But Mr Callow is not expecting the Australian dollar to surge past 70 US cents, for example.

“But a lacklustre global economy should limit Aussie dollar gains to around 0.69 to 0.70 [US cents].”

Mr Shivadekar thinks China’s economy, which is key to global economic growth, will be front and centre in contributing to that “lacklustre” performance.

“Key risks … stem from a China slowdown hurting commodity demand, global risk-off shocks, and a widening rate gap if the Fed/others stay tighter for longer,” she said.

Commodities rising

The Australian dollar’s value also shifts with commodity markets.

While the price of iron ore has been steadily increasing since July, it’s the price of gold and silver that seem to be providing support for the local currency.

While the prices of precious metals have consolidated over the past couple of weeks, their years-long bull run has been impressive.

Gold has surged about 65 per cent in 2025.

Gold is a traditional haven asset that performs well during periods of economic and geopolitical uncertainty and can fall in price when the opposite is true.

Silver rocketed up 182 per cent last calendar year, driven by its critical mineral status, supply shortages and rising industrial and investor demand.

Winners and losers

Businesses that import inventory will be hoping the recent ascent of the Australian dollar will continue.

The rising Aussie reduces their costs.

Exporters, however, will likely want to see the Australian dollar remain firmly under 70 US cents.

The sweet spot for exporters, analysts say, is roughly 65 US cents.

Meanwhile, Australians heading overseas will be keen to see the Australian dollar appreciate further.

The Australian dollar performed very well for Australians in the wake of the global financial crisis of 2008/2009 by rising beyond parity with the US dollar.

And in July 2024, the Australian dollar hit a peak against the Japanese yen, which saw many flock to the country.

The dollar is now down roughly 4 per cent from those levels.

Where to from here?

So how is the Australian dollar expected to perform against the major currencies in the months ahead?

Movements against the yen will depend on Japan’s fiscal and monetary policies, while changes against the Chinese yuan may depend on Australian, US and Chinese trade policies.

The Reserve Bank and the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions will move the Australian dollar against the US dollar.

“It’s easy to see further appreciation, as [a] hawkish RBA vs [a] more dovish US Federal Reserve and downward USD pressure could see the Australian dollar even get up to 70 US cents,” AMP deputy chief economist Diana Mousina said.

“Fair value is more like 72 US cents but it’s hard to see significant upside beyond 70 US as euro and yen benefit more from lower USD and [we need to see] stronger global growth, and China to see [a] higher Australian dollar.”

If US interest rates fall significantly from here and Australian interest rates rise, the dollar, analysts say, will likely move convincingly above 70 US cents.

And US President Donald Trump’s foray into Venezuela puts another spanner in the works of the currency market.

Brace for big moves in commodities prices and currencies in the coming days and months.

A lawsuit filed late last month took Chicago-based McDonald’s to task over the McRib sandwich, calling its name a form of false advertising.

The lawsuit was filed Dec. 23 in U.S. District Court in Chicago. Plaintiffs Peter Le of Baldwin Park, California; Charles Lynch of Poughkeepsie, New York; Dorien Baker of Chicago; and Darrick Wilson of Washington, D.C., sought class-action status in the lawsuit.

McDonald’s offers the McRib during limited windows with ad campaigns to announce their return each time, most recently starting this past November.

The lawsuit said McDonald’s has “cultivated a sense of anticipation around the McRib, leveraging its scarcity to drive sales across its many locations.”

As CBS News has reported before, the notorious 520-calorie sandwich contains just five simple ingredients: seasoned boneless pork dipped in BBQ sauce, sliced onions, and dill pickles in a toasted homestyle bun.

“When everything combines, you have BBQ pork sandwich perfection,” McDonald’s has said.

But the lawsuit alleged that fans of the sandwich assume they’re biting into pork rib meat, but the McRib does not really contain any.

Despite its name and distinctive shape — its meat patty has been deliberately crafted to resemble a rack of pork ribs—the McRib does not contain any actual pork rib meat at all,” the lawsuit said. “Instead, its meat patty is reconstructed using ground-up portions of lower-grade pork products such as, inter alia, pork shoulder, heart, tripe, and scalded stomach.”

The lawsuit said actual pork rib meat cuts — spareribs and baby back ribs — are premium cuts of pork that are more valuable than lower-quality cuts. Despite not containing any rib meat, the McRib is among the most expensive single-item options offered on the menu at McDonald’s, the lawsuit said.

“The name ‘McRib’ is a deliberate sleight of hand. By including the word “Rib” in the name of the sandwich, McDonald’s knowingly markets the sandwich in a way that deceives reasonable consumers, who reasonably (but mistakenly) believe that a product named the ‘McRib’ will include at least some meaningful quantity of actual pork rib meat, which commands a premium price on the market,” the lawsuit said. “McDonald’s does this despite knowing that the sandwich in fact does not contain any meaningful quantity of actual pork rib meat — indeed, none at all.”

The lawsuit said consumers are led to believe they’re eating rib meat when they’re eating a McRib, but are actually eating “a lower-quality restructured meat product that did not contain any actual pork rib meat.”

“Put simply: consumers have been materially misled en masse as a result of McDonald’s deceptive labeling and marketing into purchasing sandwiches that they would not otherwise have purchased, or would only have paid less for, had they known the truth,” the lawsuit said.

The lawsuit further alleged McDonald’s knows or should know that customers are being misled, given the name “McRib” and the way the sandwich’s patty is shaped to look like a pork rib.

The lawsuit accused McDonald’s of fraudulent omission or concealment, fraudulent misrepresentation, negligent misrepresentation, and other counts. It demanded an order “enjoining McDonald’s to desist from further deceptive naming, marketing and advertising practices with respect to the McRib and such other injunctive relief that the Court deems just and proper,” and an award of damages to the plaintiffs.

A response from McDonald’s was not immediately available.

McDonald’s first added the McRib to menus in Kansas City in 1981, according to CBS News Austin. 

The chain pulled it from its menu four years later, but the sandwich has become a cult favorite among McDonald’s loyalists in recent years. It was previously sold regionally before expanding to all of its U.S. restaurants in 2020, CBS News Austin reported. 

What are you watching in 2026 when it comes to the economy or markets?

That’s the question we put to the ABC’s business journalists, presenters and commentators as we head into the new year.

From the Japanese bond market to intergenerational inequality and from unemployment to electric vehicles, here’s what they’re keeping an eye on in 2026.

Kirsten Aiken, presenter of The Business

Inflation is the indicator to watch in early 2026.

In fact, set an alarm for 11.30am on January 28. That is when the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the December quarter’s CPI. The Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock has already indicated the quarter’s trimmed mean (or core inflation) will be key to the RBA’s deliberations for interest rates in early February.

Bullock could not have been clearer when fronting the media pack for the final time in 2025. She emphasised time and again the RBA is alert to the signs of a more broad-based pick-up in inflation.

The jawboning saw financial markets immediately reprice rate expectations. But was it also a warning to Australians to watch their holiday budgets, as well as the federal government to rein in the public spending of recent years ahead of a rate rise?

We have been given fair warning that the cash rate of 3.6 per cent could move higher in 2026. The likelihood of whether a hike could happen early in February, and at the RBA’s first opportunity for the year, will become much clearer as early as 11.30am on January 28.

Gareth Hutchens, business and economics reporter

What will happen to unemployment in 2026?

Australia’s unemployment rate touched a 50-year low of 3.4 per cent in October 2022, but it has been slowly grinding higher for the last three years.

In November it was 4.3 per cent.

The Reserve Bank thinks it will need to settle around 4.4 per cent for inflation to be under control.

Economists like to point out that an unemployment rate of 4.4 per cent is still low by modern historical standards. Between 1993 (when inflation-targeting began) and the start of 2020 (when the COVID pandemic hit), the unemployment rate averaged 6.3 per cent.

So if inflation can settle back down inside the RBA’s 2-3 per cent target range, and the unemployment rate can stay around 4.4 per cent, the RBA will take that as a win.

But if unemployment keeps rising, and other measures of “spare capacity” in the labour market (underemployment, youth unemployment, etc) keep deteriorating, the RBA’s hopes of “locking in” the hard-won employment gains from the COVID lockdowns may blow away with the wind.

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Like most mortgage borrowers, I’ll be watching interest rates closely in 2026.

But what are they going to do?

After the Reserve Bank’s most recent rate cut in August markets were confident there’d be another two rate cuts by February, which would have taken the cash rate to 3.1 per cent, with a fair chance of a third cut before 2026 was done.

Fast forward past a couple of shockingly high inflation numbers and a press conference where Michele Bullock laid bare on the table that the choice now was between rates on hold and rates rising, and that market pricing has flipped completely.

Traders now collectively think there’s close to a 40 per cent chance of a rate rise in February, a near-certainty of one by June, and a better than 50-50 chance of two before the end of 2026.

I attend almost every one of RBA boss Michele Bullock’s press conferences, sit in all their Statement on Monetary Policy media lock-ups, and even have the odd one-on-one background chat with senior officials. So what do I think?

If I was a betting man, I’d wager on an extended hold because, as my colleague Gareth Hutchens points out, the jobs market looks a little shaky and I think the RBA would want to wait and see how things develop before raising rates.

But, as Kirsten Aiken notes, another couple of shockers for inflation data coming out on January 7 and 28 could force the bank’s hand as early as February.

I’ll be interviewing the RBA’s deputy governor Andrew Hauser on January 8, so maybe he’ll give us a bit of a steer… but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Dan Ziffer, The Business journalist

Intergenerational inequality is the biggest thing.

Younger people are being saddled with debt (personal and government) face the dizzying cost of dealing with the climate crisis and housing… Housing? I’ve only been given 200 words and I’m trying to swear less.

Our tax settings. Our benefits. The divergent ways we treat income from work and income from assets (like homes and shares).

In the second year of a second term, this is the time for Labor to take dramatic shifts to re-balance systems that overwhelmingly preference older and wealthier people.

For the Coalition the choice is much simpler: change or die.

The Australian Electoral Study demonstrates the “conservative maturation” theory — that people vote more conservatively as they age — isn’t happening. Some Millennials (born between 1981 and 1996) are 45-years-old: this year the Coalition won just 21 per cent of that group.

I don’t think anyone, as they gently rub the back of their grizzling baby through a sleepless night, with a long day of work stretching in front of them, thinks: “When my children do this, I hope things are harder for them.”

But that’s what we’ve done. We need to change it.

In 2026 I’m going to be watching how electrification is accelerating in our economy.

I live in inner Sydney, so I’m very aware it’s a particular type of bubble, but it is a very populous one.

The increased number of electric vehicles on our roads is incredibly noticeable.

That’s reflected in the government’s decision to review its Electric Car Discount, citing industry data showing EVs now comprise about 10 per cent of new vehicle sales.

Car manufacturers had been accused of dumping their least efficient petrol cars in Australia, as we trailed other jurisdictions in restrictions on the sale of new combustion engine cars (although it seems Europe may be winding back its planned ban).

Now, there’s talk of China flooding the market with cheap EVs — the number of models available here has skyrocketed.

Whilst you used to only see the odd top-end Tesla, you’d now be hard pressed to take a glance at Parramatta Road and not spot a bunch of BYDs and mid-range EVs from the major manufacturers.

The second-hand EV market will keep gaining more depth too.

For the first time, in the inner city it seems feasible to own an EV without at-home charging capacity, with more councils rolling out street charging.

The government has also said energy retailers will need to offer free power in the middle of the day, to spread the benefits of solar beyond those who can afford panels and batteries, including to renters.

So is 2026 the year of electrification for the masses? Let’s see.

Alicia Barry, ABC News 24’s finance reporter

If rates move higher will investors have to work harder for returns? 

Active managers, who focus on the performance and outlook of individual companies have had a tough run in the last few years locally, outpaced by passive money chasing the benchmarks, like index funds. 

The low interest rate “risk on” environment supported gains in risky assets like equities across the board, particularly in technology stocks. 

Blackrock strategist for APAC and the Middle East Ben Powell says if rates drift higher, investors need an active investment strategy, “having to pick where we have conviction, be that in artificial intelligence or elsewhere. Because the central bankers, they’re still nice people, but they’re constrained by inflation from being quite as supportive for risk and for markets as we all got used to.” 

So where to look if rates go up? Citi says AI won’t dominate quite as much in 2026 and expects cyclical stocks (those exposed to economic cycles like miners) to do well. 

The investment bank prefers financial stocks over consumer staples (which are typically seen as defensive). It’s possible 2026 will finally be the year of the stock picker.

All eyes will be on the Bank of Japan in coming weeks and months.

It’s considered a giant funding source to the world’s global financial markets, especially Wall Street.

In past decades Japanese interest rates have been extremely low.

Known as the carry trade, investors would borrow yen from Japan and invest in US assets including Treasury bills and stocks on Wall Street, which offered relatively lucrative returns.

On December 19, the Bank of Japan, keen to hit its inflation target of 2 per cent and with one eye on increased business confidence, hiked its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 0.75 per cent.

In contrast the Reserve Bank of Australia’s cash rate stands at 3.6 per cent.

Immediately following the announcement, the Japan 10-year government bond yield rose above 2 per cent — it’s highest level since 1995.

Trillions of dollars are tied up in and around the carry trade and Japanese investments in the US.

The key question is how high Japanese interest rates need to go before borrowing from Japan becomes too expensive, overriding future returns from US assets.

In this case, large flows of money could return home to Japan, deeply cutting into Wall Street liquidity and, potentially, Australian superannuation funds currently heavily exposed to American markets.

Emilia Terzon, national business reporter

I’ll be watching out for more tariff turmoil.

Australian businesses — from beef producers through to bikini designers — were caught out by US President Donald Trump’s global upheaval in 2025. 

We even had Australia Post temporarily suspend most shipping to the US! Many businesses are still recovering from the disruption to their supply chains and pricing structures, especially those that manufacture goods in China and then import them into the US.

I’ll be looking out for how the Australian government, including Austrade, deals with any more disruption, and of course at any more tariff directions out of the White House.

Story Continues

by Scott Nishimura, Fort Worth Report
January 4, 2026

Editor’s note: During the holiday season, the Fort Worth Report is following up on the stories you told us you appreciated the most in 2025.

Last winter, longtime Fort Worth restaurateur and dumpling purveyor Hao Tran had just agreed to a lease on a substantially larger location in White Settlement.

Fast forward nearly a year, construction is due to start in January on Hao’s Duong DeVille, named for a Cadillac her father bought when she and her two siblings were children.

Her target opening is late spring. Construction will take about five months, according to Tran and her landlord Will Churchill, who owns the shopping center at Loop 820 and White Settlement Road with his sister, Corrie Fletcher.

Tran is still noodling on whether to retain Hao’s Grocery & Café at 120 St. Louis Ave. on Fort Worth’s Near Southside.

To keep her smaller shop, Tran says she needs to make it more economically viable: cooking classes and private events, such as prix-fixe dinners, pay the bills.

“The retail doesn’t cover the rent,” she said in early November, noting she’d already booked three events for the following month. “That’s the only way I can sustain business here.”

Tran regards the opportunity to build a 3,601-square-foot restaurant at the new shopping center as a godsend. “It literally dropped in my lap,” she said.

Tran juggles the business with her full-time career as a Trimble Technical High School teacher. She taught science at the campus for 25 years including culinary courses in the last two.

Tran opened the cafe seven years ago after spending years cooking for pop-ups. 

She estimated she surpassed 1 million dumplings sold in early 2025. She runs her shop four days a week and fills out her schedule with the classes and events.

Now at 57, and after a few unsuccessful attempts to expand, Tran thought she was done with that idea.

“I was going to retire (from teaching) and work through this until I didn’t want to do it anymore,” she said over bowls of pho one recent Sunday evening.

Unknown to her, Tran and her shop were on the radar of Churchill and Fletcher — the twin great grandchildren of the Fort Worth auto dealer Frank Kent. The siblings had purchased real estate at Loop 820 south of White Settlement Road and were renovating and repositioning the multiple commercial buildings on the site.

The duo’s prime target: a restaurant to broaden the offerings along the west side border of Fort Worth. Nearby Parker County is enjoying explosive growth with developments including the Walsh housing community and the UTA West campus. West Fort Worth’s high-end neighborhoods of Montserrat and Montrachet also bring potential customers.

The twins’ pursuit of Tran was similar to other efforts they’ve launched in commercial real estate where they first purchased sites, identified tenants they wanted, and then pursued deals. Melt Ice Creams on West Magnolia Avenue and Heim Barbecue are two such businesses they championed.

In Tran’s case, Churchill and Fletcher offered to finish out the new restaurant space at their expense.

“From our perspective, she’s a great lady with an immense amount of talent,” Churchill said. “To do a project that is worthy, it’s going to take a significant amount of capital. We felt it was important to take the burden of that responsibility on ourselves.

“It allows her to execute without having debt hanging over her head every day,” he said. “If she was a normal office tenant, we don’t do anything close to that.”

“It is a gift,” Tran says. “I have to work the business. Use it well.”

Churchill and Fletcher had some delays on their originally envisioned timeframe. Over the past year, the two also sold the family’s auto businesses; repositioned their Fort Brewery business; and began construction of a Weatherford location of Heim Barbecue.

The extra time was welcomed by Tran, who’s had plenty of time to consider her strategy. “I wasn’t in a rush,” she said.

Her Near Southside shop has three employees, not including Tran, and virtually no seating other than a small private dining room. 

She estimates the new restaurant will need 15 to 25 staffers as the space will seat 124 inside and another 34 on the patio, she said.

The new restaurant will have a full bar, a change from her BYOB cafe. There will also be a television.

“We’re not going to be a sports bar,” she said. “It’ll be a place where friends and community can gather and sit and have a drink at 10 o’clock on Tuesday night.”

The cafe is open from noon to 8 p.m. Thursday through Friday and noon to 5 p.m. Saturday and Sunday, with events and classes on other days.

At the new place, Tran wants to start with Thursday to Sunday dinner service, then expand to other weekdays and times. Even if the hours aren’t yet set, she knows she wants a late dining room.

“That area needs it,” she said. “It needs a late-night place that’s got great food and great vibes.”

She said she’s asked longtime vendor and friend Thai “Luu” Vo, a Fort Worth vegan food truck operator, to become her chef de cuisine.

In preparation for the next stage of her life, Tran sold her home and moved into a garage apartment two years ago.

“I got rid of 80% of my personal belongings,” she said. “I’m living very feng shui.”

Scott Nishimura is a senior editor for the Documenters program at the Fort Worth Report. Reach him at scott.nishimura@fortworthreport.org.At the Fort Worth Report, news decisions are made independently of our board members and financial supporters. Read more about our editorial independence policy here.

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Story Continues

People who have had their personal information stolen from the Stuff-owned Neighbourly platform could be vulnerable to online threats, a cyber security expert says.

Neighbourly has lost names, email address, private messages, posts and GPS locations which have been put up for sale on the dark web.

The website was initially shut down on New Year’s Day after the breach was uncovered but is now back online again.

Neighbourly has told members it will look to get a court injunction, but it is satisfied the breach was quickly contained.

It surfaced around the same time of another major breach with privately-owned Manage My Health, which more than 120,000 patient files compromised.

“The most concerning thing about the Neighbourly one is that there is GPS information in there, which I assume is people’s homes,” Patrick Sharp, general manager at Aura Information Security told RNZ.

“So that, correlated with other information that’s out on the internet might provide some kind of attack opportunity for an attacker.”

Sharp said the taking of the information was “absolutely” a concern.

“After the Medibank breach in Australia in 2022 there were tens, or maybe hundreds of thousands of actual financial crimes that resulted from the information stolen in that breach… so this is probably the beginning,” he said.

“Bear in mind as well that the people who are impacted by the ManageMyHealth breach and the Neighbourly breach are potentially people who are quite vulnerable and don’t understand how to protect themselves.

“So if a member of your family, an elderly person in your family, or anything like that tells you that they’re affected then you should probably help them try to understand or vet any kinds of unsolicited contact they get from anyone as well,” Sharp said.

“I think more than anything they need to be suspicious, and if someone calls you out of the blue or you get an email which you’re not expecting, you should just be very, very suspicious about it.”

Sharp said cyber attacks rise toward the end of the year, and websites or platforms growing in size an expose vulnerabilities.

“The reality is that websites are very complex systems and they go through a lot of change as they update new features and so on, and so when they do that, the possibilities of introducing new vulnerabilities into those websites is very, very possible,” Sharp said.

“And so unless they maintain a high degree of security during the development process and the update process, those vulnerabilities can be quite impactful,” he said.

“In practice one it’s out there, it’s out there,” Sharp said.

Neighbourly earlier said it took its data privacy responsibilities seriously and had contacted members directly.

On its website, it promotes itself with the tag line “your personal information is safe”.

Lives could be put at risk

Gorilla Technology chief executive Paul Spain said the Neighbourly data breach was “really significant”.

“There’s a large amount of data involved and it impacts somewhere between 800,000 and one million people potentially,” he said.

“The size of the breach suggests that it is certainly a possibility for a large percentage of those people who have their data taken.”

Spain also said the taking of GPS co-ordinates was a concern and would be concerning for some people.

“I guess the reality is when there’s this many people impacted then probably most folks won’t directly be impacted, but you just don’t know whether you’re going to get targeted with some sort of a scam where they know some personal information and they are able to take advantage of you,” he said.

“And if that ends up leaking out on the dark web and becomes available to anybody that could actually put, in some cases, put people’s lives at risk.”

He said a court injunction would be to stop people who are New Zealand-based from referencing the information.

“Because once it’s available out there, of course, anybody can get it and so you could just do a court injunction that says ‘hey, this is private information and shouldn’t be published through through legitimate platforms’,” he said.

“But it’s still available unfortunately to anyone that chooses to pay for it or retrieve the portions of it that might be leaked for free.”

Spain described the Neighbourly breach as a wake-up call.

“And unfortunately we seem to have, I think, a kind of ‘she’ll be right, mate’ attitude to cyber security in New Zealand for a lot of organisations, and it’s surprising, you know, how many organisations don’t get regular cyber security audits carried out or have a good level of clarity around where their risks are and what they can do to reduce those risks.

“You know, an organisation of the scale of stuff.co.nz who own Neighbourly, they should be at the scale to make sure that they’re keeping on top of these things.”

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