Category: 3. Business

  • Assessing Sea Limited’s Value After Recent Southeast Asia Expansion News

    Assessing Sea Limited’s Value After Recent Southeast Asia Expansion News

    • Wondering if Sea is a smart buy or overpriced right now? You are not alone. Figuring out its true value is one of the biggest questions investors are asking.

    • Despite a recent 6.1% dip over the past week and a 12.0% decline in the last month, Sea is still up an impressive 34.3% this year and 36.8% over the past 12 months.

    • Sea’s stock price has been on a rollercoaster as the company continues to make strategic moves in e-commerce and digital financial services, keeping it in the headlines. Recent reports on expansion into new Southeast Asian markets and pivotal partnerships with local firms have fueled both excitement and caution among investors.

    • Based on our checks, Sea scores a 3 out of 6 for value. This means it appears undervalued in about half of the key areas we assess. Next up, we will break down how different valuation methods measure Sea’s worth and, if you stick around, reveal a smarter way to interpret what these numbers truly mean.

    Sea delivered 36.8% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Multiline Retail industry.

    A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates a company’s intrinsic value by projecting its expected future cash flows and then discounting those cash flows back to today’s dollars. This approach aims to determine what a company is truly worth based on the cash it can generate in the future.

    For Sea, the current Free Cash Flow (FCF) stands at $3.58 Billion, providing a solid foundation for further growth. While analysts cover cash flow projections for the next five years, projections beyond that (out to 2035) are extrapolated. This offers an extended glimpse into Sea’s potential. In 2029, Sea’s FCF is expected to reach $7.80 Billion, indicating robust anticipated growth.

    Using all projected figures and discounting those future cash flows back to their present value, the DCF model calculates Sea’s intrinsic value at $313.84 per share. Compared to the current market price, this implies the stock is trading at a 55.1% discount. This suggests Sea is significantly undervalued by this measure.

    Result: UNDERVALUED

    Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Sea is undervalued by 55.1%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 886 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

    SE Discounted Cash Flow as at Nov 2025

    Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Sea.

    The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a widely used valuation tool for profitable companies like Sea, as it relates a company’s share price to its actual earnings. It is particularly relevant for investors because it helps gauge how much the market is willing to pay today for a dollar of the company’s annual earnings.

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  • 4 historic train stations reimagined as luxury hotels

    4 historic train stations reimagined as luxury hotels

    After an extensive six-year, 50bn-yen ($324m/£ 246m) renovation, the Tokyo Station Hotel reopened in 2012 as a 150-room property and a member of the Small Luxury Hotels of the World collective. It prides itself on blending omotenashi (the traditional Japanese concept of hospitality) with modern luxury.

    Guests can admire the hotel’s vaulted ceilings and European-style architecture alongside contemporary amenities such as the AN SPA and 10 on-site restaurants.  

    General Hotels Corporation Crowne Plaza Indianapolis Downtown Union Station has some of the most unique rooms of any train station hotel (Credit: General Hotels Corporation)General Hotels Corporation
    Crowne Plaza Indianapolis Downtown Union Station has some of the most unique rooms of any train station hotel (Credit: General Hotels Corporation)

    Crowne Plaza Indianapolis Downtown Union Station, US

    Opened in 1853, Indianapolis Union Station was the first “union station” in the United States, pioneering the concept of a single, shared terminal for multiple railroad lines. Today, the Crowne Plaza Indianapolis has paid homage to that legacy by converting 26 Pullman train carriages into special guest rooms.

    Climbing the narrow steps into a glossy blue-and-gold private carriage brings guests into a suite-like space lined with train windows and burnished gold fixtures. Outside each room stand statues depicting railway workers from the early 1900s.

    In addition to the unique rooms, the National Historic Landmark hotel offers easy access to downtown attractions, including Lucas Oil Stadium and Gainbridge Fieldhouse.

    If you liked this story, sign up for The Essential List newsletter – a handpicked selection of features, videos and can’t-miss news, delivered to your inbox twice a week. 

    For more Travel stories from the BBC, follow us on Facebook and Instagram.


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  • One RTG Mining Insider Raised Stake By 9,918% In Previous Year

    One RTG Mining Insider Raised Stake By 9,918% In Previous Year

    Looking at RTG Mining Inc.’s (TSE:RTG ) insider transactions over the last year, we can see that insiders were net buyers. That is, there were more number of shares purchased by insiders than there were sold.

    While we would never suggest that investors should base their decisions solely on what the directors of a company have been doing, logic dictates you should pay some attention to whether insiders are buying or selling shares.

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    Notably, that recent purchase by Richard Hains is the biggest insider purchase of RTG Mining shares that we’ve seen in the last year. So it’s clear an insider wanted to buy, at around the current price, which is CA$0.03. While their view may have changed since the purchase was made, this does at least suggest they have had confidence in the company’s future. While we always like to see insider buying, it’s less meaningful if the purchases were made at much lower prices, as the opportunity they saw may have passed. The good news for RTG Mining share holders is that an insider was buying at near the current price. The only individual insider to buy over the last year was Richard Hains. Notably Richard Hains was also the biggest seller.

    You can see the insider transactions (by companies and individuals) over the last year depicted in the chart below. By clicking on the graph below, you can see the precise details of each insider transaction!

    Check out our latest analysis for RTG Mining

    TSX:RTG Insider Trading Volume November 16th 2025

    There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of undervalued small cap companies that insiders are buying.

    For a common shareholder, it is worth checking how many shares are held by company insiders. We usually like to see fairly high levels of insider ownership. Based on our data, RTG Mining insiders have about 3.0% of the stock, worth approximately CA$1.7m. However, it’s possible that insiders might have an indirect interest through a more complex structure. I generally like to see higher levels of ownership.

    The recent insider purchase is heartening. We also take confidence from the longer term picture of insider transactions. But we don’t feel the same about the fact the company is making losses. While the overall levels of insider ownership are below what we’d like to see, the history of transactions imply that RTG Mining insiders are reasonably well aligned, and optimistic for the future. In addition to knowing about insider transactions going on, it’s beneficial to identify the risks facing RTG Mining. Our analysis shows 4 warning signs for RTG Mining (3 shouldn’t be ignored!) and we strongly recommend you look at these before investing.

    If you would prefer to check out another company — one with potentially superior financials — then do not miss this free list of interesting companies, that have HIGH return on equity and low debt.

    For the purposes of this article, insiders are those individuals who report their transactions to the relevant regulatory body. We currently account for open market transactions and private dispositions of direct interests only, but not derivative transactions or indirect interests.

    Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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  • The Expensive Stuff That Makes AI Work – The Wall Street Journal

    1. The Expensive Stuff That Makes AI Work  The Wall Street Journal
    2. Data Centers in Nvidia’s Hometown Stand Empty Awaiting Power  Bloomberg.com
    3. Experts Tout Decentralized AI Efficiency Gains as GPU Shortages and Energy Limits Loom  Bitcoin.com News
    4. Supply-chain delays, rising equipment prices threaten electricity grid  MyStateline
    5. Data centers are spiking electricity costs in Maryland. It’s the ‘tip of the iceberg,’ one expert warns  CNN

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  • Estée Lauder Companies (NYSE:EL) Has Announced A Dividend Of $0.35

    Estée Lauder Companies (NYSE:EL) Has Announced A Dividend Of $0.35

    The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.’s (NYSE:EL) investors are due to receive a payment of $0.35 per share on 15th of December. The dividend yield is 1.6% based on this payment, which is a little bit low compared to the other companies in the industry.

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    It would be nice for the yield to be higher, but we should also check if higher levels of dividend payment would be sustainable. Even though Estée Lauder Companies isn’t generating a profit, it is generating healthy free cash flows that easily cover the dividend. In general, cash flows are more important than the more traditional measures of profit so we feel pretty comfortable with the dividend at this level.

    According to analysts, EPS should be several times higher next year. If the dividend continues along recent trends, we estimate the payout ratio will be 44%, so there isn’t too much pressure on the dividend.

    NYSE:EL Historic Dividend November 16th 2025

    Check out our latest analysis for Estée Lauder Companies

    The company’s dividend history has been marked by instability, with at least one cut in the last 10 years. The dividend has gone from an annual total of $0.96 in 2015 to the most recent total annual payment of $1.40. This implies that the company grew its distributions at a yearly rate of about 3.8% over that duration. It’s encouraging to see some dividend growth, but the dividend has been cut at least once, and the size of the cut would eliminate most of the growth anyway, which makes this less attractive as an income investment.

    Given that the dividend has been cut in the past, we need to check if earnings are growing and if that might lead to stronger dividends in the future. Over the past five years, it looks as though Estée Lauder Companies’ EPS has declined at around 48% a year. Dividend payments are likely to come under some pressure unless EPS can pull out of the nosedive it is in. It’s not all bad news though, as the earnings are predicted to rise over the next 12 months – we would just be a bit cautious until this becomes a long term trend.

    In summary, while it’s good to see that the dividend hasn’t been cut, we are a bit cautious about Estée Lauder Companies’ payments, as there could be some issues with sustaining them into the future. The company is generating plenty of cash, which could maintain the dividend for a while, but the track record hasn’t been great. Overall, we don’t think this company has the makings of a good income stock.

    Market movements attest to how highly valued a consistent dividend policy is compared to one which is more unpredictable. However, there are other things to consider for investors when analysing stock performance. Taking the debate a bit further, we’ve identified 2 warning signs for Estée Lauder Companies that investors need to be conscious of moving forward. If you are a dividend investor, you might also want to look at our curated list of high yield dividend stocks.

    Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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  • What’s Grokipedia, Musk’s AI-powered rival to Wikipedia? | Elon Musk News

    What’s Grokipedia, Musk’s AI-powered rival to Wikipedia? | Elon Musk News

    Last month, tech billionaire Elon Musk launched Grokipedia, an AI-powered platform, to rival online encyclopedia Wikipedia.

    “Grokipedia will exceed Wikipedia by several orders of magnitude in breadth, depth and accuracy,” Musk posted on X the day after his site went live on October 27.

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    In the age of generative artificial intelligence and AI-assisted search engines, Wikipedia remains an information repository authored by humans.

    Yet PolitiFact found Grokipedia’s articles are often almost entirely lifted from Wikipedia. And when the entries differ, Grokipedia’s information quality and sourcing are problematic and error-prone, making it a less reliable research tool.

    Musk said on an October 31 episode of the “All-In” tech and business podcast that his team instructed his company’s chatbot, Grok, to go through the top 1 million Wikipedia articles and then “add, modify and delete”.

    “So that means research the rest of the internet, whatever is publicly available, and correct the Wikipedia articles, fix mistakes, but also add a lot more context,” he said on the podcast.

    Grokipedia articles often contain the text “Fact-checked by Grok“.

    PolitiFact reviewed Grokipedia articles and found that when they include language that’s different from what appeared on Wikipedia, the new content:

    • Is not supported by citations;
    • Does not provide references; or
    • Introduces misleading or opinionated claims.

    Grokipedia often also removes context from its articles.

    A sample of Grokipedia’s 885,279 articles reveals they are subject to a similar AI-related phenomenon we first saw in May, prior to the tool’s unveiling. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr then released a Make America Healthy Again report that contained several erroneous citations, including crediting sources that did not exist.

    Joseph Reagle, Northeastern University associate professor of communication studies, said Grokipedia misunderstands Wikipedia’s and AI’s strengths.

    “Wikipedia’s merits are that it is the result of a community of thousands of people diligently working to create high-quality content,” Reagle said, while AI is useful when it’s interactive and accepts pushback.

    Hundreds of thousands of volunteers worldwide contribute content to Wikipedia, guided by the platform’s editorial policies and guidelines.

    The Wikimedia Foundation, the nonprofit that operates Wikipedia, is aware of Grokipedia’s copying problem.

    “Even Grokipedia needs Wikipedia to exist,” said Selena Decklemann, chief product and technology officer at the Wikimedia Foundation, in a statement to PolitiFact. “Wikipedia’s content is open source by design; we expect it will be used in good faith to educate. This issue is especially urgent as platforms like Grokipedia increasingly draw on our articles, selectively extracting content – written by thousands of volunteers – and filtering it through opaque and unaccountable algorithms.”

    Entries are nearly identical, except for wrong or missing references

    We looked at Grokipedia articles covering various topics including science, music and economics. In many articles we reviewed, Grokipedia links to Wikipedia articles with this statement: “The content is adapted from Wikipedia, licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 License.”

    That means Wikipedia’s licensing allows Grokipedia to copy, redistribute and adapt the content with an attribution. It also requires Grokipedia to give the same permissions for its adapted content. (There are some articles that don’t copy from Wikipedia and don’t feature this statement, such as the article for Joseph Stalin.)

    Grokipedia’s article structure is similar to Wikipedia’s, which features reference lists at the bottom. But in some instances, Grokipedia copies Wikipedia articles while omitting their citations and reference lists.

    Grokipedia’s article for “Monday,” for example, includes information about the day of the week’s etymology, related religious observances and cultural references. But it contains no citations other than to say it was adapted from Wikipedia.

    The Grokipedia article was a 96 percent match of Wikipedia’s “Monday” article, according to Copyscape, a plagiarism checker. The Wikipedia article, however, listed 22 references.

    Sometimes Grokipedia botches citations. In the entry for “culminating point,” Grokipedia cited the wrong book chapter in which military theorist Carl von Clausewitz introduced the concept. The rest of the article text is copied from Wikipedia.

    One article that differs significantly from its Wikipedia counterpart is the entry for “Hello”, a song by British singer Adele. Multiple items in the Grokipedia reference list are Instagram reels that provide secondhand, unattributed information and commentary. Wikipedia’s standards say such user-generated content is “generally unacceptable as sources”.

    In the entry for the Canadian singer Feist, Grokipedia copied from Wikipedia but added a line saying her father died in May 2021. The citation led to Vice’s 2017 ranking of the 60 best Canadian indie rock songs, an article that doesn’t mention the death of Feist’s father, who was still alive that year.

    Grokipedia lacks transparency on correcting errors

    PolitiFact found at least one instance when Grokipedia introduced misleading information.

    The Grokipedia and Wikipedia articles for “Nobel Prize in Physics” are largely the same, but one sentence Grokipedia added said, “Physics is traditionally the first award presented in the Nobel Prize ceremony.” It did not provide a citation, and it appears to be wrong: In at least the past few years, the Nobel Prize for Physiology or Medicine was awarded first.

    “Unlike Grokipedia, which relies on rapid AI-generated content with limited transparency and oversight, Wikipedia’s processes are open to public review and rigorously document the sources behind every article,” Decklemann said.

    Wikipedia allows anyone to contribute and edit articles, and ensures transparency by making the history of an article viewable. Some volunteers have advanced permissions and are equipped to address negative behaviour on the platform.

    However, Wikipedia has come under scrutiny after an editor blocked changes to an article on the Gaza genocide page.

    On Grokipedia, registered users can suggest edits to published articles. But Grokipedia has no feature allowing readers to view what edits have been made. It is unclear what happens when there are errors – whether a human or Grok corrects them, how those changes are deliberated, and how long it takes to update pages.

    PolitiFact Researcher Caryn Baird contributed to this report.


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  • Taking A Look At YSX Tech. Co., Ltd’s (NASDAQ:YSXT) ROE

    Taking A Look At YSX Tech. Co., Ltd’s (NASDAQ:YSXT) ROE

    While some investors are already well versed in financial metrics (hat tip), this article is for those who would like to learn about Return On Equity (ROE) and why it is important. By way of learning-by-doing, we’ll look at ROE to gain a better understanding of YSX Tech. Co., Ltd (NASDAQ:YSXT).

    Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company’s management is utilizing the company’s capital. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

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    ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

    Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders’ Equity

    So, based on the above formula, the ROE for YSX Tech is:

    15% = US$4.0m ÷ US$28m (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2025).

    The ‘return’ is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. Another way to think of that is that for every $1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn $0.15 in profit.

    View our latest analysis for YSX Tech

    Arguably the easiest way to assess company’s ROE is to compare it with the average in its industry. However, this method is only useful as a rough check, because companies do differ quite a bit within the same industry classification. You can see in the graphic below that YSX Tech has an ROE that is fairly close to the average for the Consumer Services industry (17%).

    NasdaqCM:YSXT Return on Equity November 16th 2025

    So while the ROE is not exceptional, at least its acceptable. While at least the ROE is not lower than the industry, its still worth checking what role the company’s debt plays as high debt levels relative to equity may also make the ROE appear high. If a company takes on too much debt, it is at higher risk of defaulting on interest payments. You can see the 3 risks we have identified for YSX Tech by visiting our risks dashboard for free on our platform here.

    Companies usually need to invest money to grow their profits. That cash can come from retained earnings, issuing new shares (equity), or debt. In the first and second cases, the ROE will reflect this use of cash for investment in the business. In the latter case, the use of debt will improve the returns, but will not change the equity. In this manner the use of debt will boost ROE, even though the core economics of the business stay the same.

    Although YSX Tech does use debt, its debt to equity ratio of 0.22 is still low. The combination of modest debt and a very respectable ROE suggests this is a business worth watching. Judicious use of debt to improve returns can certainly be a good thing, although it does elevate risk slightly and reduce future optionality.

    Return on equity is useful for comparing the quality of different businesses. Companies that can achieve high returns on equity without too much debt are generally of good quality. If two companies have around the same level of debt to equity, and one has a higher ROE, I’d generally prefer the one with higher ROE.

    Having said that, while ROE is a useful indicator of business quality, you’ll have to look at a whole range of factors to determine the right price to buy a stock. It is important to consider other factors, such as future profit growth — and how much investment is required going forward. You can see how the company has grow in the past by looking at this FREE detailed graph of past earnings, revenue and cash flow.

    Of course YSX Tech may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have high ROE and low debt.

    Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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  • Vinci Compass Investments Ltd. Just Missed Earnings

    Vinci Compass Investments Ltd. Just Missed Earnings

    As you might know, Vinci Compass Investments Ltd. (NASDAQ:VINP) last week released its latest quarterly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Results showed a clear earnings miss, with R$241m revenue coming in 4.4% lower than what the analystsexpected. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of R$0.74 missed the mark badly, arriving some 47% below what was expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we’ve gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

    We’ve found 21 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free.

    NasdaqGS:VINP Earnings and Revenue Growth November 16th 2025

    Following the latest results, Vinci Compass Investments’ five analysts are now forecasting revenues of R$1.14b in 2026. This would be a notable 19% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 105% to R$5.67. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of R$1.14b and earnings per share (EPS) of R$4.84 in 2026. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there’s been a decent improvement in earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.

    Check out our latest analysis for Vinci Compass Investments

    The consensus price target was unchanged at US$13.39, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Vinci Compass Investments at US$14.43 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$11.96. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

    Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The period to the end of 2026 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 15% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 16% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 6.9% per year. So it’s pretty clear that Vinci Compass Investments is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

    The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Vinci Compass Investments’ earnings potential next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$13.39, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

    With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company’s earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Vinci Compass Investments going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

    And what about risks? Every company has them, and we’ve spotted 4 warning signs for Vinci Compass Investments (of which 1 is a bit concerning!) you should know about.

    Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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  • How Google’s DeepMind tool is ‘more quickly’ forecasting hurricane behavior | Google

    How Google’s DeepMind tool is ‘more quickly’ forecasting hurricane behavior | Google

    When then Tropical Storm Melissa was churning south of Haiti, Philippe Papin, a National Hurricane Center (NHC) meteorologist, had confidence it was about to grow into a monster hurricane.

    As the lead forecaster on duty, he predicted that in just 24 hours the storm would become a category 4 hurricane and begin a turn towards the coast of Jamaica. No NHC forecaster had ever issued such a bold forecast for rapid strengthening.

    But Papin had an ace up his sleeve: artificial intelligence in the form of Google’s new DeepMind hurricane model – released for the first time in June. And, as predicted, Melissa did become a storm of astonishing strength that tore through Jamaica.

    Forecasters at the NHC are increasingly leaning hard on Google DeepMind. On the morning of 25 October, Papin explained in his public discussion and on social media that Google’s model was a primary reason he was so confident: “Roughly 40/50 Google DeepMind ensemble members show Melissa becoming a Category 5. While I am not ready to forecast that intensity yet given the track uncertainty, that remains a possibility.

    “It appears likely that a period of rapid intensification will occur as the storm moves slowly over very warm ocean waters which is the highest oceanic heat content in the entire Atlantic basin.”

    Google DeepMind is the first AI model dedicated to hurricanes, and now the first to beat traditional weather forecasters at their own game. Through all 13 Atlantic storms so far this year, Google’s model is the best – even beating human forecasters on track predictions.

    Melissa eventually made landfall in Jamaica at category 5 strength, one of the strongest landfalls ever documented in nearly two centuries of record-keeping across the Atlantic basin. Papin’s bold forecast likely gave people in Jamaica extra time to prepare for the disaster, possibly saving lives and property.

    Google DeepMind has been making weather forecasts for a few years now, and the parent forecast system from which the new hurricane model is derived also performed spectacularly well in diagnosing large-scale weather patterns last year.

    Google’s model works by spotting patterns that traditional time-intensive physics-based weather models may miss.

    “They do it much more quickly than their physics-based cousins, and the computing power is less expensive and time consuming,” Michael Lowry, a former NHC forecaster, said.

    “What this hurricane season has proven in short order is that the newcomer AI weather models are competitive with and, in some cases, more accurate than the slower physics-based weather models we’ve traditionally leaned on,” Lowry said.

    To be sure, Google DeepMind is an example of machine learning – a technique that has been used in data-heavy sciences like meteorology for years – and is not generative AI like ChatGPT.

    Machine learning takes mounds of data and pulls out patterns from them in a such a way that its model only takes a few minutes to come up with an answer, and can do so on a desktop computer – in strong contrast to the flagship models that governments have used for decades that can take hours to run and require some of the biggest supercomputers in the world.

    Still, the fact that Google’s model could outperform previous gold-standard legacy models so quickly is nothing short of amazing to meteorologists who have spent their careers trying to forecast the world’s strongest storms.

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    “I’m impressed,” said James Franklin, a retired NHC forecaster. “The sample is now large enough that it’s pretty clear this is not a case of beginner’s luck.”

    Franklin said that although Google DeepMind is beating all other models on forecasting the future path of hurricanes worldwide this year, like many AI models it occasionally gets high-end intensity forecasts wrong. It struggled with Hurricane Erin earlier this year, as it was also undergoing rapid intensification to category 5 north of the Caribbean. It also struggled with Typhoon Kalmaegi – which made landfall in the Philippines on Monday.

    In the coming offseason, Franklin said he plans to talk with Google about how it can make the DeepMind output even more helpful for forecasters by providing additional under-the-hood data they can use to assess exactly why it is coming up with the its answers.

    “The one thing that nags at me is that while these forecasts seem to be really, really good, the output of the model is kind of a black box,” said Franklin.

    There has never been a private, for-profit company that has produced a top-level weather model which allows researchers a peek into its methods – unlike nearly all other models which are provided free to the public in their entirety by the governments that designed and maintain them. While Google has made top-level output of DeepMind publicly available in real time on a dedicated website, its methods have still largely been hidden.

    Google is not alone in starting to use AI to solve difficult weather forecasting problems. The US and European governments also have their own AI weather models in the works – which have also shown improved skill over previous non-AI versions.

    The next steps in AI weather forecasts seem to be startup companies taking swings at previously tough-to-solve problems such as sub-seasonal outlooks and better advance warnings of tornado outbreaks and flash flooding – and they are receiving US government funding to do so. One company, WindBorne Systems, is even launching its own weather balloons to fill the gaps in the US weather-observing network, which has recently been downsized by the Trump administration.

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  • Crowded Emerging-Market Trades Draw Warnings From Money Managers

    Crowded Emerging-Market Trades Draw Warnings From Money Managers

    Options traders appear to be turning bearish on the Brazilian real, which has delivered carry trade returns of around 30% this year.

    Some of the year’s most popular emerging-market trades such as betting on the Brazilian real and stocks linked to artificial intelligence are becoming a source of concern as money managers warn of risks from overcrowding.

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    Wells Fargo Securities sees valuations for Latin American currencies — among 2025’s top carry trade performers — as detached from fundamentals. Fidelity International is concerned about less liquid markets in Africa that it sees at risk should global volatility spike. Lazard Asset Management meanwhile is keeping its guard up after early November’s firesale in Asian tech stocks — the worst since April.

    “Investors are too complacent on emerging markets,” said Brendan McKenna, an emerging-market economist and FX strategist at Wells Fargo in New York. “FX valuations, for most if not all, are stretched and not capturing a lot of the risks hovering over markets. They can continue to perform well in the near-term, but I do feel a correction will be unavoidable.”

    Such caution isn’t without reason. Many parts of the developing-markets universe look overheated after a heady cocktail of Federal Reserve rate cuts, a softer dollar and an AI boom drove stellar gains. The very flows that propelled the rally are now posing the risk of sudden drawdowns that have the potential to ripple through global sentiment and tighten liquidity across asset classes.

    A quarterly HSBC Holdings Plc survey of 100 investors representing a total $423 billion of developing-nation assets showed in September that 61% of them had a net overweight position in local-currency EM bonds, up from minus 15% in June. A Bloomberg gauge of the debt is on track for its best returns in six years.

    The MSCI Emerging Markets Index of stocks has risen each month this year through October — the longest run in over two decades. Up almost 30%, the gauge is headed for its best annual gain since 2017, when it rallied 34%. That was followed by a 17% slump in 2018 when a more hawkish than expected Fed, a US-China trade war and a surging dollar took the wind out of overcrowded EM stocks as well as popular carry — in which traders borrow in lower-yielding currencies to buy those that offer higher yields — and local-bond trades.

    “As we approach year-end, there is a risk that some investors look to take profits on what has been a successful trade in 2025 and that this leads to a rise in volatility in FX markets,” Anthony Kettle, senior portfolio manager at RBC BlueBay Asset Management in London, said in reference to local-currency bonds.

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