Category: 3. Business

Shares slipped Friday in Asia after a day of dramatic swings on Wall Street that included Microsoft’s worst drop in nearly six years.

Oil prices dropped and the prices of gold and silver weakened.

The CEO of Indonesia’s stock market, Imam Rachman, resigned Friday “As part of a commitment toward recent market conditions,” the exchange said in an announcement.

Jakarta’s benchmark gained 1.2% following news of his resignation. It had been trading at all-time highs but sank 7.4% on Wednesday and 1.1% on Thursday after MSCI, a U.S. provider of global equity, fixed income and real estate indices, warned about market risks such as a lack of transparency.

Chinese markets retreated, with the Hang Seng in Hong Kong down 1.8% to 27,455.13. Shares in major ports operator CK Hutchison Holdings dropped 5% after Panama’s Supreme Court ruled that the concession held by a subsidiary to operate ports at either end of the Panama Canal was unconstitutional.

That advanced a U.S. effort to block any influence by China over the strategic waterway.

The Shanghai Composite index slipped 0.9% to 4,122.61.

Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 fell back, losing 0.1% to 53,322.85 as stocks related to artificial intelligence declined. Testing equipment maker Advantest lost 4.5% and computer chip equipment maker Disco Corp. lost 1.7%.

South Korea’s Kospi gave up most of its gains late in the session, edging 0.1% higher to 5,224.36 after the Yonhap News Agency reported that a first day of talks with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick aimed at resolving trade tensions had not yielded an agreement. The talks are due to continue Friday.

Earlier this week, President Donald Trump said he planned to raise tariffs on South Korean exports if the U.S. ally did not swiftly ratify a trade agreement worked out months ago.

In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 declined 0.7% to 8,869.10.

Taiwan’s benchmark lost 1.5%.

On Thursday, U.S. stocks finished with relatively modest moves.

The S&P 500 slipped 0.1% after flirting with its record high in the morning and dropping by as much as 1.5% later in the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1% and the Nasdaq composite fell 0.7%.

Microsoft was the heaviest weight on the market by far, tumbling 10% even though it reported stronger profit and revenue for the latest quarter than analysts expected. It was the stock’s worst day since the market’s COVID crash in 2020.

Tesla also weighed on the market after falling 3.5%. It delivered a bigger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected, but the results were sharply lower than from a year earlier.

Companies are under pressure to deliver solid growth in profits following record-setting runs for their stock prices. Stock prices tend to follow the path of corporate profits over the long term, and earnings need to rise to quiet criticism that stocks have grown too expensive.

In other dealings early Friday, the price of gold slipped 2.8% to $5,205 per ounce after it rallied briefly to near $5,600 on Thursday. Gold’s price topped $5,000 for the first time just this week and it has nearly doubled over the last 12 months.

Silver, which has been zooming higher in its own feverish run, declined 4.1% to nearly $110.41.

Prices for precious metals have been surging as investors look for safer investments while weighing a wide range of risks, including a U.S. stock market that critics say is expensive, political instability, threats of tariffs and heavy debt loads for governments worldwide.

The U.S. dollar has seen its value sink over the last year because of many of the same risks that drove gold’s price higher. Early Friday, the dollar was trading at 153.85 Japanese yen, up from 152.97 yen. The euro slipped to $1.1921 from $1.1967.

Oil prices slipped after jumping more than 3% on Thursday due to worries about tensions between the United States and Iran, which could ultimately constrict the flow of crude. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned the U.S. military “will be prepared to deliver whatever the president expects,” just a day after President Donald Trump told Iran to “make a deal” on its nuclear program.

U.S. benchmark crude oil lost $1.07 to $64.35 per barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, shed $1.10 to $68.49 per barrel.

In brief

Belgium is introducing two significant changes that will increase financial exposure for employers who breach Belgian labor legislation. As of 1 February 2026, (i) the statutory multiplier used to calculate criminal and administrative fines will increase, and (ii) a new mandatory minimum penalty will apply in certain cases involving an aggravating factor. Together, these reforms will strengthen the overall sanctioning framework and heighten compliance risks — particularly for serious offenses under the Social Criminal Code.

Increase of criminal and administrative fines

Under Belgian law, the actual amount of criminal or administrative fines is calculated by applying a statutory multiplier (“opdeciemen”/”décimes additionnels”) to the basic fine amounts set out in the relevant legislation. Currently, this statutory multiplier is eight. As a result, basic fines must be multiplied by eight to determine the amounts effectively payable.

As of 1 February 2026, the statutory multiplier will increase to 10, leading to a proportional rise in all administrative and criminal fines.

Within the framework of the Social Criminal Code — which categorizes infringements into four sanction levels depending on their seriousness — the table below sets out (i) the applicable sanction levels and (ii) the corresponding fines (including the statutory multiplier), both before and after the legislative change. The table does not include imprisonment penalties associated with Level 4 infringements.

Sanction level	Administrative fine		Criminal fine
	Before	After	Before	After
Level 1	EUR 80-800	EUR 100-1,000	N/A	N/A
Level 2	EUR 200-2,000	EUR 250-2,500	EUR 400-4,000	EUR 500-5,000
Level 3	EUR 800-8,000	EUR 1,000-10,000	EUR 1,600-16,000	EUR 2,000-20,000
Level 4	EUR 2,400-28,000	EUR 3,000-35,000	EUR 4,800-56,000	EUR 6,000-70,000

Importantly, the Social Criminal Code often provides that fines may be multiplied by the number of employees affected, up to a maximum of 100 employees. This multiplication mechanism — combined with the increased statutory multiplier — means that the total financial exposure in cases involving multiple employees may increase substantially.

Mandatory minimum fine for Level 4 infringements with an aggravating factor

Following the recent reform of the Social Criminal Code, the relevant enforcement authorities must take an “aggravating factor” into account when determining sanctions for infringements punishable at Level 4. As a general rule, an aggravating factor refers to situations where the infringement was committed knowingly and intentionally.

Under the current regime, the existence of an aggravating factor obliges the judge or competent administrative authority to consider it when determining the sanction — e.g., by imposing a fine toward the higher end of the statutory range — or when assessing whether additional sanctions (such as an operating ban or business closure) are justified. However, the law does not currently require the court or administrative authority to exceed the minimum threshold for the sanctions.

This will change as of 1 February 2026. Where a Level 4 infringement is found to have been committed with an aggravating factor, the imposed fine cannot be lower than half of the maximum statutory fine for Level 4. This introduces a binding statutory minimum that materially restricts judicial and administrative discretion and ensures that aggravated Level 4 infringements are sanctioned at a substantially higher baseline level.

However, the legislation provides for a limited exception. The mandatory minimum does not apply where the fact that the infringement was committed “knowingly and intentionally” has already served as the aggravating circumstance justifying a reclassification of the infringement from a lower sanction level to Level 4. In these situations, the intentional nature of the conduct cannot be relied on a second time to trigger the new mandatory minimum fine.

The UK’s first superfast-charging train running only on battery power will come into passenger service this weekend – operating a five-mile return route in west London.

Great Western Railway (GWR) will send the converted London Underground train out from 5.30am to cover the full Saturday timetable on the West Ealing to Greenford branch line, four stops and 12 minutes each way, and now carrying up to 273 passengers, should its celebrity stoke up the demand.

The battery will recharge in just three and a half minutes back at West Ealing station between trips, using a 2,000kW charger connected to a few metres of rail that only becomes live when the train stops directly overhead.

There are hopes within government and industry that this technology could one day replace diesel trains on routes that have proved difficult or expensive to electrify with overhead wires, as the decarbonisation of rail continues.

The train has proved itself capable of going more than 200 miles on a single charge – last year setting a world record for the farthest travelled by a battery-electric train, smashing a German record set in 2021.

The GWR train and the fast-charge technology has been trialled on the 2.5-mile line since early 2024, but has not yet carried paying passengers.

GWR’s engineering director, Simon Green, said: “This is a significant moment for all those involved in this innovative project and comes at a crucial time as we focus on plans to replace our ageing diesel fleet.

“Our fast-charge trial has successfully demonstrated that battery technology offers a reliable and efficient alternative to power electric trains, in cases where overhead lines aren’t possible or desirable.”

Network Rail’s western route director, Marcus Jones, whose teams installed the fast-charge infrastructure, said the trial had shown “how promising this technology is and today marks another important milestone for the industry”.

“Rail is already the greenest form of public transport, and battery‑powered trains will play a crucial role in our commitment to a low‑emission railway and ambition to reach net‑zero by 2050,” he said.

Hybrid battery-electric trains, running on battery where power lines are not available, are already established in Japan and elsewhere. Merseyrail also has trains running a short distance on batteries, but primarily powered and recharging from a third rail.

However, the rapid charging technology used in the new GWR service means trains can be built using batteries alone, which are safer for the public than using a high-voltage third rail, and have less impact on local electricity grids.

The electrification of the Great Western mainline was ended in 2020, curtailed due to its enormous cost overruns. GWR believes the technology could now allow it to switch away from diesel on much longer routes in south-west England.

Emerging-market stocks, bonds and currencies are making a roaring start to 2026 as the dollar’s fall to a four-year low hastens a push by investors to diversify into markets beyond the US.

Bourses in Turkey, Brazil, South Africa, Chile, Mexico and Taiwan have gained at least 10 per cent in dollar terms this month, with Colombia and Korea up more than 20 per cent, as currencies and commodity prices have surged and investors have shifted bets on AI to Asia’s chipmakers.

The Brazilian real, Mexican peso, Chilean peso and South African rand are among the world’s best performing major currencies this year, gaining 5 to 6 per cent against the dollar when including returns from the relatively high interest rates in those countries.

“Fundamentals in emerging markets have been improving for a while but it took the weak dollar for global investors to pay attention,” said David Hauner, head of global emerging markets fixed-income strategy at Bank of America.

Many emerging-market central banks have boosted interest rates well above inflation in recent years in an attempt to retain capital that was being enticed away by the rise in US interest rates since 2022, which helped drive a decade-long strengthening in the dollar.

While such efforts had previously been overshadowed by US markets, said James Lord, global head of FX and emerging markets strategy at Morgan Stanley: “Now, [central bankers] are really reaping the rewards of [their] enhanced credibility as the dollar cycle has turned.”

An MSCI benchmark index of emerging market stocks is up nearly 11 per cent so far in January, after a 31 per cent gain last year that was its best performance since 2017. The value of stocks in the index has risen by more than a trillion dollars this year to $28tn, up from $21tn at the start of 2025.

In comparison, the MSCI World index of advanced economy stocks is up 2.8 per cent this year, while the S&P 500 index of US blue-chip stocks is up 1.6 per cent.

A recent Bank of America analysis of thousands of global “long-only” funds managing trillions of dollars found that last year they bought $109bn in shares in Asian markets outside Japan, and $59bn across other emerging markets, as they sold $160bn of US shares.

This year’s early gains include chipmaker stocks in Taiwan and Korea that have been key suppliers to US AI companies and now make up a large part of the emerging markets-wide benchmark. Elsewhere, MSCI’s bluechip South African index — mostly miners and banks — is up 15 per cent this year to a record high.

What these rallies had in common, said Archie Hart, equity portfolio manager at Ninety One, was that, “if you look at charts of the gold price, the silver price, and the [memory chip] price, they have all gone vertical”. Some spot prices for memory chips have almost quadrupled since October as AI demand has led to shortages.

“The positive overlay on that is obviously a weaker dollar,” given that emerging market equity performance had tended to be inversely correlated with the dollar for decades, Hart said. However, he noted, the dollar had still only weakened slightly from historically high levels. “If I look at the trade-weighted dollar over the last 25 years, about 75 per cent of the time it has been lower than it is now.”

Edward Evans, an emerging market equity portfolio manager at Ashmore Group, said stocks were being driven by more than the AI boom and dollar weakness, arguing that many companies in developing markets, such as fintech and ecommerce groups in Latin America, were “market leaders [that are] competitive globally”.

Fixed-income assets are also outperforming developed-world peers. A JPMorgan index of EM local currency bonds is up more than 2 per cent since the start of the year, following a 19 per cent return in 2025. Meanwhile, US high-yield bonds, which compete for a similar pool of investor capital, are up less than 1 per cent this month, according to an ICE Bank of America index.

Latin American bonds in the JPMorgan index have returned almost 6 per cent this year, most of which has been driven by currency moves.

Alper Gocer, head of emerging market debt at Pictet Asset Management, said fixed-income investors were not selling dollar assets to invest the proceeds in emerging markets, but were looking for options for new capital.

“Investors have started to look at diversification from, rather than escaping, the dollar,” he said. “Emerging markets, especially local currency debt, are one of the good alternatives.”

Local currency sovereign and corporate bond markets in developing nations have grown to almost $25tn, or close to the size of the US Treasury market. But global investor holdings of this debt in markets outside China largely stagnated over the past decade because of the dollar’s strength, before picking up over the past year.

Last week, investors added $1.5bn to funds investing in emerging market local currency bonds, according to fund monitor EPFR. This was the biggest weekly jump in allocations since 2018 — a further sign that interest in emerging markets is gaining momentum even after strong returns in 2025.

This week, the rally has shrugged off warnings that possible intervention to prop up the Japanese yen against the US dollar could hit so-called “carry trades”, in which investors borrow in currencies with low interest rates — such as the yen — to profit from higher yields in emerging markets.

“This isn’t just hedge funds doing carry trades in short-term FX markets — there is actual buying of emerging-market local currency bonds,” which is showing up in official balance of payments data this month, said Lord at Morgan Stanley.

The yen, which had been falling against the dollar since May last year, has jumped almost 3 per cent against the greenback since reports late last week that the US was contemplating co-ordinated intervention with Japan in the dollar/yen FX market.

“In the past, episodes of unwinding short positions in the yen would lead to positioning reductions across carry trades, hurting emerging market assets in the process,” Barclays analysts said. This year, they noted, this has not happened.

“The confidence shock on the dollar is triggering a long overdue strategic catch-up in emerging-market local currency allocations,” they said, adding that this could fuel further demand.

China’s import-export hit a record US$6.36 trillion in 2025, buffering against domestic weakness amid increasing geopolitical tensions. High-tech and green exports have replaced low-cost manufacturing as the primary growth engine.

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Against a backdrop of geopolitical fragmentation, slowing global demand, and persistent trade protectionism, China’s foreign trade performance in 2025 underscored the adaptability of the world’s second‑largest economy. Total imports and exports reached a record RMB 45.47 trillion (US$6.36 trillion), marking a 3.8 percent year‑on‑year increase and affirming China’s continued centrality to global trade flows. Export growth remained the primary driver, rising 6.1 percent to RMB 26.99 trillion (US$3.77 trillion), while imports showed tentative recovery, edging up 0.5 percent to RMB 18.48 trillion (US$2.58 trillion).

Beyond the aggregate numbers, the data reflects a deeper shift underway. China is moving decisively away from its traditional role as a low‑cost manufacturing hub toward a trade profile anchored in high‑end manufacturing, green technologies, and strategically diversified markets. Expanding trade ties with ASEAN and Belt and Road partners have reduced exposure to geopolitical friction with developed economies, reinforcing China’s position not only as a global production center, but also as an increasingly sophisticated consumer and innovation market for multinational companies.

Overview of China’s import-export in 2025

The trade surplus set a record

A defining feature of China’s 2025 trade landscape was the widening import‑export gap, which pushed the annual trade surplus past the US$1 trillion threshold for the first time, reaching a record US$1.19 trillion. This divergence was driven primarily by sustained export momentum, which continued to outpace the relatively modest increase in imports, bringing total import value to US$2.65 trillion.

From a temporal perspective, trade performance followed a distinct V‑shaped trajectory over the course of the year. After a sluggish start marked by contraction in the first two months, trade activity stabilized in the second quarter before gaining momentum through the second half of the year. This acceleration culminated in December, when monthly imports and exports reached a new record of US$617 billion. In dollar terms, exports exceeded market expectations with a 6.6 percent year‑on‑year increase, while imports also accelerated, rising 5.7 percent and signaling a strong finish to the year.

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This resilience was not cyclical alone, but structural in nature, underpinned by consistent policy support aimed at stabilizing foreign trade throughout 2025. In response to rising protectionism and heightened external uncertainty, Beijing rolled out targeted measures to stabilize export orders, support trade‑oriented enterprises, and encourage market diversification. These interventions helped buffer external shocks and sustain trade activity. As a result, China achieved positive import growth for three consecutive quarters starting in Q2, further supported by the scale and depth of its domestic market.

Structural shift in export landscape

China’s export performance in 2025 was defined by a clear divergence between technology‑intensive sectors and traditional labor‑intensive goods, underscoring the country’s ongoing industrial upgrading. Mechanical and electrical products remained the backbone of outbound shipments, delivering consistent year‑on‑year growth of around 8 percent throughout the year and accelerating to 8.4 percent in December. High‑tech exports mirrored this trajectory, expanding steadily and ending the year with a strong 7.5 percent annual increase, reflecting robust external demand for electronics, advanced machinery, and technology‑enabled products.

In contrast, traditional manufacturing categories faced persistent downward pressure. Exports of garments, footwear, furniture, toys, and travel goods declined on a year‑on‑year basis throughout 2025, with contractions deepening toward year‑end. Apparel and footwear exports, for example, fell by more than 10 percent year‑on‑year in December, highlighting both weak global consumer demand and intensifying competition in price‑sensitive markets. Textile exports proved comparatively more resilient, hovering close to flat growth by year‑end, suggesting partial stabilization rather than a full recovery.

Resource‑ and material-related exports showed mixed dynamics. Steel and aluminum products recorded mild contractions, while fertilizer exports surged mid‑year before tapering off, indicating sensitivity to global commodity cycles and seasonal demand. Agricultural exports stood out for their stability, maintaining low but positive growth across all months.

Overall, the 2025 export landscape reflects a structural shift toward higher‑value, technology‑driven growth, even as traditional sectors continue to adjust to global demand rebalancing and price pressures.

The most explosive growth occurred in the “New Three” industries: electric vehicles (EVs), lithium batteries, and solar products. Combined exports for these green technologies surged 27.1 percent in 2025. Within this green energy ecosystem, specific niches saw hyper-growth:

• Wind power: Exports of wind turbine generators jumped 48.7 percent.
• Batteries: Lithium battery exports grew 26.2 percent.
• Green transport: Exports of electric motorcycles and railway locomotives increased by 18.1 percent and 27.1 percent, respectively.

Beyond green energy, broader high-tech product exports climbed 13.2 percent to reach US$750 billion. A significant milestone in 2025 was China’s transition into a net exporter of industrial robots. Exports of industrial robots surged 48.7 percent, signaling that domestic technology has matured enough to compete in advanced automation markets globally. Similarly, exports of high-end machine tools and specialized equipment rose by over 20 percent, further eroding the market share of traditional industrial powers.

Diversification of trading partners

The 2025 data confirm a definitive geopolitical realignment of China’s supply chains. Trade with BRI partner countries reached US$3.39 trillion, capturing 51.9 percent of China’s total trade value. This majority share represents a critical structural hedge. By prioritizing these markets, China has partially insulated its export engine from Western decoupling pressures, building a trade ecosystem less dependent on G7 demand cycles.

ASEAN solidified its position as China’s largest trading partner, with total bilateral trade exceeding US$1.02 trillion. This relationship has evolved from simple commodity exchange to deep industrial integration, with Southeast Asia increasingly serving as the primary extension of China’s manufacturing base. Beyond Asia, the “Global South” delivered the year’s most impressive growth stories:

• Africa: Trade surged 18.4 percent, driven by China’s export of heavy machinery and infrastructure projects, which offset weaker consumer demand elsewhere.
• Latin America: Trade grew 6.5 percent, deepening ties in agricultural supplies and industrial equipment.

In stark contrast, trade with the United States (US) contracted sharply. Exports to the US fell 20 percent, while imports declined 14.6 percent. However, businesses must interpret this data with nuance. Rather than a simple evaporation of demand, much of this contraction likely reflects supply chain rerouting. Chinese intermediate goods are increasingly shipped to third-party hubs, such as Vietnam or Mexico, for final assembly before entering the U.S., masking the continued interdependence of the two economies.

The picture with the European Union (EU) is mixed. While overall volume growth has slowed compared to emerging markets, sectoral integration remains tight. Notably, European automotive parts and healthcare products continue to see robust demand in China, while Chinese green technology exports to the EU grew 11.5 percent in December, defying broader protectionist headwinds.

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This shift may suggest that the “China + 1” strategy is evolving to more regionalized supply-chain configurations. It is no longer just about alternative sourcing, but about regionalized supply hubs. China is transitioning from a final assembly point for the West to the core industrial engine supplying intermediate goods to Southeast Asia and the BRI nations. Consequently, strategies are shifting from “In China, For China” to “In China, For Global,” leveraging the Chinese mainland supply chains to serve high-growth markets in the Global South.

Import dynamics and domestic demand

Despite modest full‑year growth of just 0.5 percent, China’s imports followed a clear V‑shaped recovery pattern in 2025. Year‑on‑year declines persisted from January to May, bottoming out at ‑8.4 percent in the January-February period, before giving way to a steady rebound from June onward. Import growth peaked at 7.4 percent in September and remained resilient through year‑end, closing December at 5.7 percent. This improvement was led primarily by industrial input, reflecting stabilizing manufacturing activity and firm underlying production demand despite continued price headwinds.

On the other hand, beneath the surface of China’s flat headline import growth lies a story of resilient industrial demand and evolving consumer tastes. The import growth figure was heavily suppressed by a global dip in commodity prices. A closer look at volumes reveals a robust industrial appetite that the dollar figures obscure.

The “price effect” created a divergence between value and volume in 2025. While the import value of key industrial commodities barely moved, physical volumes surged, confirming that China’s factory floors kept humming.

• Crude Oil: Import volumes increased by 4.4 percent, signaling steady energy needs for manufacturing and transport, even as import value settled at US$295.2 billion.
• Iron Ore: Import volumes climbed 5.2 percent, driven by infrastructure projects and machinery production, with total value reaching US$122.7 billion. This divergence confirms that the “sluggish” import growth was a monetary phenomenon, not a reflection of collapsing domestic activity.

Meanwhile, despite national self-sufficiency campaigns, China remains deeply integrated into global supply chains. Integrated circuits were the single largest import item, with full-year imports surpassing US$424 billion. This massive inflow underscores a critical reality for foreign tech firms: China’s demand for advanced processing power continues to outpace its domestic capacity, making it a vital market for global semiconductor majors.

While discretionary spending on big-ticket items like property softened, household consumption showed resilience in specific high-quality segments. Imports of “lifestyle” agricultural goods outperformed the broader market, signaling a continued upgrade in consumption habits among the middle class. For example:

• Edible vegetable oil: Imports surged 16.6 percent year-on-year to US$8.6 billion.
• Fresh & dried fruits: Imports grew 5.6 percent to US$19.4 billion. These bright spots indicate that Chinese consumers are prioritizing premium food and health products, offering a clear growth avenue for global agricultural exporters.

The 2025 import profile clarifies where commercial opportunities are becoming more concentrated. The “China opportunity” is narrowing but deepening in two specific lanes: high-tech components that China cannot yet manufacture at scale and premium consumer goods that cater to a discerning middle class. Exporters positioning themselves in these “deficit gaps” will find robust demand, regardless of the broader macroeconomic headwinds.

The role of private enterprise

In 2025, private enterprise did not just participate in China’s trade resilience but engineered it. The data confirms that private firms have cemented their status as the “main engine” of the country’s external economy, effectively decoupling their performance from the slower-moving state-owned sector.

Private companies generated US$3.74 trillion in import and export value, a 7.1 percent increase year-on-year. This growth outpaced the national average, pushing the private sector’s share of total foreign trade to a commanding 57.3 percent. For foreign investors, this metric is a crucial indicator: the vitality of China’s market is now overwhelmingly driven by non-state actors, who comprise over 80 percent of the 780,000 entities with active trade records.

The agility of private firms proved decisive in navigating the geopolitical fractures of 2025. Unlike larger, policy-bound state-owned enterprises (SOEs), private exporters were faster to pivot supply chains and sales networks toward emerging markets. They were the primary drivers of double-digit trade growth in Africa and Latin America, rapidly customizing products, from affordable smartphones to agricultural machinery, to meet local market needs. This adaptability allows them to capture market share in regions where Western competitors are often slower to mobilize.

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Crucially, 2025 signaled a maturity milestone as Chinese firms are moving aggressively from original equipment manufacturing (OEM) to original brand manufacturing (OBM). Exports of products under “self-owned brands” grew by 12.9 percent, significantly faster than the headline export rate. This surge drove the share of branded exports up by 1.4 percentage points. This shift warns global competitors that Chinese rivals are no longer content with razor-thin margins on contract manufacturing; they are capturing the premium value of brand equity, competing directly on identity and reputation in global markets

Outlook for 2026 and challenges ahead

Looking ahead to 2026, China’s foreign trade is expected to remain resilient but more constrained, shaped by a combination of slowing global momentum and ongoing structural upgrading at home. Export growth is likely to moderate to around 4 percent, down from 2025 but still outperforming the global average, as market diversification and product upgrading continue to offset external headwinds. The deeper drivers of this resilience lie in China’s highly complete industrial chain and entrenched competitiveness in key manufacturing segments, even as global trade growth slows and protectionist barriers multiply.

The reconfiguration of global supply chains is paradoxically accelerating China’s export upgrade from mid‑ to low‑end consumer goods toward higher‑value intermediate and capital goods. Demand from emerging markets such as ASEAN, Africa, and Latin America will remain a core support, fueled by faster industrialization and continued reliance on Chinese intermediate inputs and equipment. At the same time, global investment in AI computing capacity is expected to sustain strong demand for China’s power equipment and data‑center‑related exports. That said, policymakers face a balancing challenge: guarding against excessive short‑term declines in labor‑intensive exports that could create employment pressures.

By market, 2026 may see a pattern of narrowing drag from the US and easing momentum in non‑US markets, though the latter will remain the primary growth engine. A potential easing of US‑China tariff tensions, combined with expansionary US fiscal and monetary policies, could help stabilize bilateral trade. Meanwhile, exports to ASEAN, Latin America, and the EU should stay firm, though growth may cool modestly due to higher base effects from transshipment trade and tightening regulatory and trade rules in advanced economies.

On the import side, China is likely to rely more heavily on domestic stimulus and institutional opening‑up to stabilize demand. Continued “trade‑in” programs for appliances and automobiles, expansion of Free Trade Zones, and deeper integration under RCEP and the China‑ASEAN FTA 3.0 will support both imports and regional trade integration. Strategically, 2026 points toward localization and insulation as key trade themes: firms that anchor production in China for the domestic market, while leveraging ASEAN as a regional connector, will be best positioned to navigate an increasingly fragmented global trade environment.

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Dezan Shira & Associates provides supply chain and tariff advisory to help businesses improve resilience, optimize sourcing, and manage cross-border exposure. From supplier consolidation in China to expansion into Vietnam, India, or ASEAN, we support partner identification, due diligence, tariff engineering, and continuity planning. Backed by 30+ years of experience, we help businesses build agile, future-ready supply chains. To arrange a consultation, please contact China@dezshira.com.

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About Us

China Briefing is one of five regional Asia Briefing publications. It is supported by Dezan Shira & Associates, a pan-Asia, multi-disciplinary professional services firm that assists foreign investors throughout Asia, including through offices in Beijing, Tianjin, Dalian, Qingdao, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Suzhou, Guangzhou, Haikou, Zhongshan, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong in China. Dezan Shira & Associates also maintains offices or has alliance partners assisting foreign investors in Vietnam, Indonesia, Singapore, India, Malaysia, Mongolia, Dubai (UAE), Japan, South Korea, Nepal, The Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Italy, Germany, Bangladesh, Australia, United States, and United Kingdom and Ireland.

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