(Bloomberg) — The Federal Reserve’s annual gathering in the Rocky Mountains is usually a time for central bankers and their wonky friends to kick back, discuss a few complicated economic topics and then go for a hike in the shadow of Grand Teton.
This year, the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium, which wrapped up Saturday, was at times a tense affair and drove home how difficult the path ahead is for the US central bank.
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On Friday, Chair Jerome Powell used his keynote speech to signal the Fed is headed for an interest-rate cut as soon as its next policy meeting in September. Yet there are clear divisions among policymakers over whether that’s the right call. Powell, himself, noted the economy has handed Fed officials a “challenging situation.”
Policymakers are grappling with inflation that’s still above their 2% goal — and rising — and a labor market that’s showing signs of weakness. That unnerving reality, which pulls policy in opposite directions, is made worse by a high degree of uncertainty about how each of those factors will evolve over the coming months.
“We’re getting some cross-currents and it’s in a difficult environment,” Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said in an interview on the sidelines of the conference. “I always say the hardest job the central bank has is to get the timing right at moments of transition.”
The conference also highlighted the political pressures weighing on the Fed. Those are likely to intensify in coming months as President Donald Trump looks to put his stamp on what may be the most prominent federal institution to have so far escaped his overhaul attempts.
As Powell delivered his speech Friday morning, Trump said he would fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook if she didn’t resign over recent allegations that she committed mortgage fraud. It’s the latest attempt by the administration to pressure the Fed from multiple angles as Trump relentlessly pushes for lower interest rates.
Security for the event was noticeably heightened compared to recent years, adding to the tension at the gathering. Officers from the Fed Police, US Park Police and Teton County Sheriff’s Office, some in military-style fatigues and carrying weapons, were a constant presence.
Earlier Friday morning, officers had to remove one person, the Trump-backer and Fed gadfly James Fishback, after he confronted Cook in the lobby of the lodge and shouted questions about the mortgage controversy.