The past few years have rewritten the rules of global trade. What began with a pandemic and continued through geopolitical conflict has now tipped into a new phase: not de-globalisation, but re-globalisation.
The events surrounding “Liberation Day” in April and the subsequent global trade tensions are not a break with recent history, they are the latest act in the restructuring of supply chains and capital flows.
Re-globalisation reshapes commodity demand
For decades, the US–China relationship set the rhythm for world trade. That era is fading. China’s exports to the US are slowing sharply, and the global economy is diversifying its industrial dependencies. Corporates and governments alike are actively reducing reliance on single customers or suppliers.
This rebalancing is redirecting commodity flows and India is increasingly the market to watch. With ambitious plans to build out domestic manufacturing, India is emerging as an important anchor for long-term commodity demand.
Meanwhile, China’s massive investment in solar capacity has triggered one of the most profound cost shifts in modern energy markets. Solar is no longer a climate-policy debate; it is now the cheapest energy source on the planet. As a result, renewable installations are scaling on economics alone. This is particularly significant for metals such as silver, where demand growth is now being driven by price-competitive green-tech adoption rather than subsidies or climate diplomacy.
De-fiatisation eclipses de-dollarisation
Around Liberation Day, talk of “de-dollarisation” erupted. But that framing misses the bigger picture. The real story is de-fiatisation: diminishing trust in fiat currencies as ageing populations, fiscal deficits, rising debt and concerns around currency debasement weigh on all major economies – not just the US.
This macro anxiety has propelled gold higher and fuelled notable interest in silver, especially from investors seeking diversification. Silver, however, appears to have run ahead of fundamentals in recent weeks and may need to cool off before resuming its trend. Even so, precious metals as a whole remain a logical hedge at a time when inflation fears and bubble concerns stalk global equity markets.
As well as the effect on silver, de-fiatisation is also impacting demand on digital assets, with investors seeking non-traditional currencies as risk management alternatives.
Gold at $4,000: not a bubble
Gold’s surge to $4,000 per ounce is often attributed to retail enthusiasm. That is partly true, but “retail” also includes private wealth managers allocating on behalf of ultra-high-net-worth clients. Behind the headlines, institutional behaviour matters even more.
Central banks were already rebuilding gold reserves even before this year’s events. Their buying is strategic and price-insensitive, providing firm long-term support for bullion.
An emerging trend may reinforce this further: the US introducing stablecoin regulations, stablecoin issuers and large crypto firms may favour gold over Treasuries for asset backing and collateral purposes. This development could deepen structural demand for gold in the years ahead.
Copper’s bifurcated reality
The copper market of 2026 is defined by contradiction. Near-term demand is lacklustre. Long-term demand especially tied to AI-related energy infrastructure is enormous. That mismatch sets the stage for exceptional volatility.
Inventories have been sucked into the US ahead of potential tariffs on refined copper, tightening supply elsewhere. Global stocks look elevated, but US inventory is effectively landlocked, distorting the picture. If tariffs are reversed, copper could flood out of the US rapidly. With a decision expected in June, the run-up may be noisy and disorderly.
A new volatility driver: interest-rate divergence
Markets expect a dovish tilt from the incoming Federal Reserve chair. But the Fed no longer speaks with a single voice. Minutes show striking divergence, and the result is a market prone to bouts of panic and euphoria.
Recession indicators, particularly ISLM (Investment-Savings/Liquidity Preference-Money Supply) dynamics, have been flashing red for months, echoing early-2000s patterns. Inflation remains sticky, and tariff effects, even when unwound have left price levels structurally higher. Markets are not positioned for the risk of inflation re-accelerating in 2026, with potential repercussions for rates, bond markets and precious metals.
Aluminium enters the power wars
Aluminium’s strength has surprised many. While substitution with copper attracts headlines, the deeper story is power. Aluminium pricing is fundamentally tethered to electricity costs, and AI-driven power demand is rising at a pace few anticipated.
Aluminium smelters are traditionally built near stranded or ultra-cheap power sources. Today, they may find themselves competing with data centres, industrial consumers with extraordinary and rapidly expanding energy requirements. One of the major misconceptions around AI is the timeline and cost of building adequate power capacity. A hyperscale data centre does not simply plug into the grid; it requires infrastructure resembling a dedicated power station.
What it all means for 2026
Taken together, these dynamics point to a commodities landscape defined by re-globalisation, shifting power constraints, and heightened macro uncertainty. Supply chains are becoming more diverse but also more volatile; energy transitions are accelerating on cost advantage rather than policy; and investor behaviour is increasingly shaped by concerns over currency stability, inflation and geopolitical fragmentation.
Metals such as gold, silver, copper and aluminium will be influenced not just by traditional supply–demand balances but by structural forces—ranging from tariff regimes and central bank strategies to AI-driven power demand. As a result, 2026 is likely to be a year of persistent volatility, sharp regional divergences and significant long-term opportunity for those positioned to understand and navigate these new patterns.
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