Category: 3. Business

  • Google is abruptly changing the game for journalism — again

    Google is abruptly changing the game for journalism — again

    This is an era of the “rug pull”, an age of the “pump and dump”.

    The terms come from investment scams, but now apply more generally. A project is going well, prices are skyrocketing, attracting more investors: “the pump”.

    Suddenly, it all comes crashing down. The rug is pulled and the founders vanish with the money. Investors are left with worthless assets: “the dump”.

    After years of being courted by tech companies and encouraged to provide content optimised for their platforms and websites, news sites are increasingly finding themselves locked out and denied access to their users.

    This is sometimes presented as a media industry issue, as a story about news sites outflanked by changing technology.

    But it’s about much more than that. News sites are the canaries in the coalmine.

    This is about the biggest change to the web in 20 years, one that will affect how you access information and what you read and watch.

    Most of us have grown up with the “open web” — the enormous global collection of websites where information and content are published and shared freely without requiring the approval of a hypothetical web-owner or third party.

    It’s so commonplace it’s hard to imagine a future without it, and yet it’s under threat.

    AI tools trained on the best websites of the open web are now killing traffic to these sites.

    And despite changing the future of journalism and our access to an online public resource of information, the issue is getting little attention.

    The term Google has become so ubiquitous in our lives that it has become synonymous with the word “search”. (AP: Matt Rourke)

    From search engine to answer engine

    The two best examples of this trend are the choices made by Meta and Google to sideline news site content and referrals.

    Just under a decade ago, Meta abruptly changed its algorithm to show less news content on the main feed, beginning a process that culminated a year ago, when it announced it no longer wanted any news content.

    Now it looks like Google is doing something similar.

    The facts are different, but the consequences for journalism are the same.

    Google has built an AI model partly trained on news content (which it initially took for free, without asking) that’s able to answer many user queries and therefore avoid having to direct them to the sites themselves.

    As a result, search traffic to news sites appears to be tanking.

    This week, Google went one step further, rolling out the advanced search tool AI Mode to Australian users, which will further sideline news sites and embed the shift from “search engine” to “answer engine”.

    Some publishers are discussing “Google Zero” — the hypothetical moment when Google Search stops sending any traffic to third-party websites, instead providing AI overviews directly on the search results page.

    “I think it’s an absolutely pivotal, maybe the most pivotal moment for journalism ever,” Kevin Indig, a US-based search engine optimisation (SEO) expert, told me.

    “A lot of publishers are asking themselves, what is our business model?”

    “What is our model when AI answers so many questions?”

    Newsrooms optimise for Google

    It’s hard to overstate Google’s importance to online journalism.

    Over the past two decades print readership declined, radio and TV audiences dwindled, and social media platforms became fickle.

    Facebook turned away from news and the responsibility of moderation. Twitter got weird. YouTube was overrun with misinformation.

    Through all this, Google was pretty solid. The essential utility for the web continued to direct billions of users to news sites, so ubiquitous it was almost invisible.

    Optimising articles so they ranked higher in Google became second nature. News sites employed staff to spot search trends.

    Google isn’t just another way of getting eyeballs on an article. Its search engine is baked into the concept of a news website.

    And it goes further than this.

    Given Google’s dominance of the search market, Google search is arguably central to the operation of the open web — of the hundreds of millions of publicly accessible websites that get most of their readers via Google.

    A whole SEO industry exists on the basis that Google will continue to sift the web and publish search results leading users to the most relevant sites.

    Another huge industry, content marketing, is based on the idea that publishing useful or generally interesting information on a topic will draw readers to a site, where they may then purchase a product or service.

    As Indig put it, until recently, “every participant of the marketplace was winning.”

    “Whether they’re journalists, or content marketers, or advertisers, or Google, they were all winning. It was a great deal.”

    Then generative AI changed the game.

    Loading

     

    Has Google done a rug pull?

    About a year ago Google rolled out generative AI answers, posted above the standard blue links, for some search queries.

    Since then, news sites have reported steep declines in search traffic of 30 per cent. Some content marketers saw declines of 80 per cent.

    There’s broadly two opposing arguments here. The first is that Google is giving users what they want — the internet changes and we all have to adapt. The second is that this is a rug pull.

    According to the second argument, Google using AI to answer search queries isn’t just an evolution of search, but a betrayal of the basic quid pro quo.

    The open web is based on the idea of a reciprocal and mutually beneficial relationship between publishers and search engines like Google.

    But Google’s AI is trained on open web data, which includes news sites.

    So Google is arguably using content from news sites that costs these newsrooms readers and advertising revenue. It’s gone from helpful partner to publishing rival.

    Instead of Google sending readers to other sites, it’s pursuing a future where there’s only one big site: Google.

    Now, maybe fears of “Google Zero” are an overreaction.

    Google still sends billions of readers to news sites.

    Services like Google Discover remain an important source of traffic for news.

    Google needs content from news sites to train its AI, so the AI can generate answers that are factual and up to date.

    It also needs news sites to do well so it can make money from selling ads on these sites.

    But then again, it’s early days. We’re only one year into the experiment.

    There’s widespread speculation Google will make AI Mode (a chatbot-like generative AI search tool) the default for search, which would mean less traffic to news sites, and probably mass lay-offs and fewer publishers.

    And what then?

    The future of journalism could be pretty bleak if publishers were only being kept alive to train AI chatbots for a US tech company.

    The new "AI Mode" button.

    This week Google rolled out the chatbot-like “AI Mode” for search in Australia. (Supplied: Google)

    What can publishers do?

    Publishers could demand licensing deals so that Google and others pay them for the content used to train AI models.

    This is already happening. In August, Google signed a deal with Australian Associated Press to provide content for its AI platform.

    But this approach has its drawbacks. Licensing deals favour big news sites. Smaller, independent publishers could miss out, as happened with the News Media Bargaining Code in 2021.

    This inequality around licensing deals contributed to the net loss of about 166 news outlets in Australia over the past five years.

    Another option is regulators like the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission could demand AI companies fairly compensate publishers for content.

    Regulating US tech giants is tricky. Meta pulled Australian news from Facebook and Google initially threatened to pull its search engine rather than pay publishers for content under the News Media Bargaining Code.

    A third option is an automated system for paying content owners for their work.

    In July, the online infrastructure company Cloudflare announced the trial of a service that allows content owners to charge AI crawlers for access.

    So far, there’s no broad consensus about what works, Indig said.

    In the meantime, across the open web, gates are going up. More publishers are using paywalls to make up for lost ad revenue.

    “For a lot of publishers, gating wasn’t viable,” he said.

    “Now it’s like they’re being pushed towards the cliff and gating is one of the best kinds of options that they have.”

    Expect to see more gated content, fewer publishers, and perhaps fewer articles overall.

    From now on, you may see fewer explainers, how-to guides, or other content that’s generally more easily summarised by AI.

    After this rug pull, the web is going to be less open.

    Continue Reading

  • USW Offices in Singapore, Santiago and Sub-Saharan Africa Explore Baking’s Future at IBIE

    USW Offices in Singapore, Santiago and Sub-Saharan Africa Explore Baking’s Future at IBIE

    Last month’s International Baking Industry Exposition (IBIE) offered U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) staff from Sub-Saharan Africa, South America and Southeast Asia a peek into the future of the industry — from advantages artificial intelligence (AI) could present bakers to more practical developments in baking ingredients, including potential benefits sourdough fermentation has for consumers’ gut health.

    Scientific advancements in wheat biotechnology also took its turn in the spotlight.

    As USW Bakery and Noodle Technologist Ivan Goh puts it, the IBIE is like a “world tour of everything baking.”

    IBIE, considered one of the world’s largest and most comprehensive baking events, was held Sept. 13–17 in Las Vegas. It attracted more than 1,000 exhibitors from across the globe.  Focus was placed on the latest advancements in technology, ingredients, equipment and packaging. The show also hosted its largest education program ever, with more than 250 sessions and demonstrations.

    Helping USW Help Customers

    “Technical staff in all U.S. Wheat offices handle numerous customer inquiries related to wheat-based products on a regular basis, so this kind of experience was especially valuable for us,” said Goh. He attended the 2025 IBIE with USW Regional Vice President Joe Sowers, along with South and Southeast Asian Baking Technologists Sam Yap and Adrian Redondo. “Many manufacturers showcased their latest machines and even assembled complete production lines at the show, which provided great insight into how various products are made.”

    USW’s Cape Town office brought a team of millers and bakers from Sub-Saharan Africa.

    “The goal was to provide technical staff from regional milling and baking companies in our region a chance to engage directly with U.S. bakery equipment manufacturers,” said USW Cape Town Program and Marketing Specialist Domenique Opperman. She led the team with USW Regional Director for Sub-Saharan Africa Chad Wiegand. “These are companies that purchase U.S. wheat, and we felt they would really get a lot out of learning about the latest innovations.”

    USW’s Santiago office sponsored a team of bakers at this year’s IBIE, too. USW Regional Director Miguel Galdos and Technical Specialist Andres Saturno explored new innovations in baking with the team. They also engaged with milling and baking companies from South America participating in the event.

    “We had the opportunity to meet with several important bakeries in our market to answer questions and discuss what we were seeing,” said Galdos. “For example, the Chilean Bakers Association was on hand, so we spent time with their members to interact with them of the things being presented.”

    Brad Erker, executive director of Colorado Wheat Research Foundation, conducted an educational session on scientific advancements in wheat biotechnology during this year’s IBIE. Erker discussed the potential for enhanced crop performance and sustainability improvements through biotech innovation.

    Continue Reading

  • Q&A: Four Decades of Teaching Global Grain Procurement

    Q&A: Four Decades of Teaching Global Grain Procurement

    Dr. William “Bill” Wilson helped establish the Grain Procurement Management for Importers short course at the Northern Crops Institute (NCI) more than four decades ago. Over the course of his long career, he has worked with hundreds of course participants from across the globe.

    Wilson recently transitioned to a new role with North Dakota State University (NDSU) but was still involved in this year’s course. USW talked with him about the course’s history, the core tenets that make it successful year after year, and how the course has been refined over time to meet the changing needs of global grain buyers.

    What was the initial driving force behind establishing the NCI grain procurement short course?

    At the time the course was founded in 1982, the U.S. marketing system was considered very complicated compared to that of competitors like Australia or Canada. The purpose was that if we better educate buyers about the mechanics of our grain marketing system, then buyers can be more effective in their purchasing strategies. That was the idea, and I would say it still is the idea.

    How have course participants changed over the years?

    During our first couple of courses, nobody knew what an NCI course meant. One of the first programs was primarily seven people from Iraq who were involved in insect inspection. They were not really involved in the nuts and bolts of procurement, but that was the state of the industry at the time.

    Over the next decade, the course increased to about 40 people. We had a lot of simultaneous translation; sometimes we were translating simultaneously into five languages. But the class was largely dominated by government buying agencies, so they had limited discretion as to what they did and their primary goal was to get the lowest cost.

    Nowadays, we fill our class every year with 35 students, which is the capacity of our trading room. And we are always at capacity. We now teach multiple courses, one on wheat and corn and one on soybeans.

    All of the students today are younger; they’re trained in futures, options and trading; they’re conversant in English and they’re very active in the purchasing of wheat. This is radically different than earlier years. They’re operating in a very competitive environment and using what we consider to be sophisticated strategies for managing risk and procurement.

    How has the course been refined to meet the needs of this change in participants?

    These are all recently trained people. They’re fully aware of the operations of futures , cash and options markets. When I observe the way we teach and what they ask questions about, they’re doing everything we’re teaching them. What they’re trying to do is fine-tune the way they’re doing it, whereas in earlier years, we were teaching them – what is the futures market?

    First, we teach a lot about risk management, and we teach a methodology called Value at Risk (VaR). This is a novel technology and we teach it regularly in our university class. Increasingly, five to 10 percent of students are actively using this already in their import situation. So they’re looking to fine-tune their knowledge of how to use this method.

    Second, we have a commodity trading room at NDSU that I developed in 2012. We have 34 workstations replicating what would look like a commodity trading room at any company, and we have access to all of the major media and information sources in the world. So a big part of one of our sessions is to articulate and illustrate all of these sources of information.

    We also have online trading during our course. We give them assignments ahead of time, and then they have to trade overnight in groups. It brings the group together.

    When we have very volatile marketing periods, it brings out a lot of questions, not only on the mechanics of making a buy decision, but also things like the price ladder and others.

    Third, we are spending a lot of time on logistics and supply chain management. Every company in the world is analyzing its supply chain. I asked the students what their biggest source of risk is and it was transit time risk, so we introduced case studies to illustrate the impacts of transit time risk, where you make a purchase, expect shipment in 15 days and it takes 45 days. We now also have a special session devoted specifically to stock holding as a strategy.

    How has industry engagement with the course changed?

    In the 1980s, trying to get an industry speaker to come to Fargo was a killer. If I asked any company, I want to bring in a group of 30 people that you don’t know, so that you can tell them anything, they would say – forget it! So, I had to lean on former students of mine.

    Then, over time, as our audience became more sophisticated and more commercially intriguing, we had no problem having industry speakers. We now have three to five industry speakers. We have traders coming in, we have local shuttle elevators coming in and the BNSF railroad is a regular speaker. As a matter of fact, we have more industry speakers than we can accommodate!

    How does the integration of academic and industry experts benefit participants?

    It’s good because I’m an academic. We as academics don’t know everything, and we don’t sell wheat, so it’s important to have industry speakers.

    And industry speakers typically are not natural teachers. So we have a perfect complementarity now between academic presentations and experienced industry speakers. This has enhanced our program substantially.

    How has USW helped contribute to the success of this course?

    USW was with us from the very beginning. Most important to me is that USW identifies participants around the world who would benefit the most from this course. All of the overseas staff have been involved in the courses, so they know what we do. USW is like a matchmaker.

    I also interact with the USW staff overseas. When they’re at NCI for trade teams and other programs, I always take a little pulse check about what’s of emerging importance and how we need to make marginal changes to the course each year.

    How does this course ultimately drive sales of wheat?

    When you teach in this class, you’re teaching somebody for their career and for a lifetime. Our approach is to teach the tools that are really important to utilize the flexibility of the U.S. market system.

    The tools that we teach are always applicable for U.S. purchases. Over time, the idea is that if buyers are more knowledgeable, they make better decisions. That’s the approach we take.

    Continue Reading

  • Amazon’s Project Kuiper to launch satellite broadband in Pakistan by 2026

    Amazon’s Project Kuiper is set to launch satellite broadband services in Pakistan by the end of 2026, marking a significant step in the country’s digital transformation. The announcement was made following a high-level meeting between Pakistan’s Federal Minister for IT and Telecommunication, Shaza Fatima Khawaja, and a delegation from Project Kuiper on October 9, 2025.

    The project aims to deliver high-speed, low-latency broadband via a constellation of up to 3,236 Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites. The service will focus on reaching underserved and remote areas of Pakistan, which have traditionally struggled with reliable internet connectivity.

    The Ministry of Information Technology and Telecommunication confirmed that key infrastructure, including ground gateways and local points of presence (PoPs), will be established in Pakistan to support the satellite broadband rollout. This infrastructure will help ensure stable performance and seamless integration with Pakistan’s national network, providing internet speeds of up to 400 megabits per second through affordable user terminals.

    Minister Shaza Fatima Khawaja welcomed the collaboration, calling it a vital step toward expanding digital access across the country. She emphasized that Project Kuiper’s entry aligns with Pakistan’s vision of becoming a “Digital Nation,” where high-speed internet is accessible to all citizens, regardless of their location.

    The initiative is expected to have a significant impact on Pakistan’s IT sector, fostering innovation, attracting foreign investment, and enabling the growth of digital services in areas such as education, healthcare, and e-commerce.

    Officials from the Ministry of IT reiterated Pakistan’s commitment to facilitating international partnerships that contribute to the growth of a connected and inclusive digital economy. The arrival of Project Kuiper’s services is part of the country’s broader strategy to incorporate cutting-edge technologies and accelerate its digital transformation.

    Continue Reading

  • ‘Dozens’ of organizations had data stolen in Oracle-linked hacks

    ‘Dozens’ of organizations had data stolen in Oracle-linked hacks

    Security researchers at Google say hackers targeting corporate executives with extortion emails have stolen data from “dozens of organizations,” one of the first signs that the hacking campaign may be far-reaching.

    The tech giant said Thursday in a statement shared with TechCrunch that the Clop extortion gang exploited multiple security vulnerabilities in Oracle’s E-Business Suite software to steal significant amounts of data from affected organizations.

    Oracle’s E-Business software allows companies to run their operations, such as storing their customer data and their employees’ human resources files. 

    Google said in a corresponding blog post that the hacking campaign targeting Oracle customers dates back to at least July 10, some three months before the hacks were first detected. 

    Oracle conceded earlier this week that the hackers behind the extortion campaign were still abusing its software to steal personal information about corporate executives and their companies. Days earlier, Oracle’s chief security officer, Rob Duhart, claimed in the same post — since scrubbed — that the extortion campaign was linked to previously identified vulnerabilities that Oracle patched in July, suggesting the hacks were over.

    But in a security advisory published over the weekend, Oracle said the zero-day bug — named because Oracle had no time to fix the bug, as it was already being exploited by hackers — can be “exploited over a network without the need for a username and password.” 

    The Russia-linked Clop ransomware and extortion gang has made a name for itself in recent years for mass-hacking campaigns, often involving the abuse of vulnerabilities unknown to the software vendor at the time they were exploited, to steal large amounts of corporate and customer data. This includes managed file transfer tools, like Cleo, MOVEit, and GoAnywhere, which companies use as a way to send sensitive corporate data over the internet.

    Google’s blog post includes email addresses and other technical details that network defenders can use to look for extortion emails and other indications that their Oracle systems may have been compromised.

    Continue Reading

  • Atlantic Aviation taps Cushman & Wakefield as Collaborator to Advance Next-Generation Urban Air Mobility – Cushman & Wakefield

    1. Atlantic Aviation taps Cushman & Wakefield as Collaborator to Advance Next-Generation Urban Air Mobility  Cushman & Wakefield
    2. Flying taxis are coming to L.A. This developer is already picking places to land them  Los Angeles Times
    3. CWK to Advise on Urban Air Mobility VertiPort Development  GuruFocus
    4. Cushman & Wakefield Tapped To Map Out America’s First Vertiports  Bisnow
    5. Texas FBO Aims to Bring Top Air Taxis to the Busiest Urban Areas in the US  autoevolution

    Continue Reading

  • Ferrari reveals features of first fully electric vehicle

    Ferrari reveals features of first fully electric vehicle

    MILAN — MILAN (AP) — Italian luxury sports carmaker Ferrari raised its 2025 guidance on Thursday, despite global 15% tariffs on foreign car imports to the United States, as the company unveiled the new powertrain and chassis of its first fully electric production vehicle.

    Ferrari CEO Benedetto Vigna declined to give target production numbers or a price for the Ferrari Elettrica, which will be delivered beginning late next year, with the design to be revealed in the spring.

    Under the carmaker’s new five-year plan, 40% of the product lineup will be the brand’s core internal combustion engines, 40% will be hybrid and 20% will be electric by 2030, with an average of four new launches a year in the period. The new business plan calls for more models with lower volumes of each.

    The fully electric vehicle Ferrari Elettrica represents a new segment that Vigna said would bring new buyers to Ferrari. It builds on 15 years of electrification research at Ferrari, starting with Formula 1 technology that was first incorporated into the limited edition La Ferrari hybrid supercar that debuted in 2013.

    To maintain the sports car feel and emotions integral to the Ferrari experience, the Elettrica will capture powertrain vibration through accelerometers on the rear axle that will be amplified to create a sports car roar. Drivers also can select five power levels using steering panels to create the sensation of continuous acceleration.

    Ferrari also is manufacturing most critical components internally, including the battery system and software. The chassis and body shell will be made out of 75% recycled aluminum, saving 6.7 tons of carbon dioxide per vehicle.

    In raising its forecast, Ferrari said that revenues this year would top 7.1 billion euros ($8.2 billion), up from more than 7 billion euros in the previous guideline. Ferrari also targets earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA, of 2.7 billion euros with a margin of more than 38.3%.

    Presenting its five-year plan, the Formula 1 racing team and sports carmaker that has expanded into luxury goods is projecting net revenues of 9 billion euros by 2030 with and EBITDA of at least 3.6 billion euros on 40% margins.

    Chief Financial Officer Antonio Picca Piccon said that the confirmation of 15% tariffs on European car imports to the U.S. removed “an important element of uncertainty.” The targets were raised based on solid business performance and increased revenues from the sports car business.

    Continue Reading

  • Board Member Stein to Host Forum in Los Angeles for Auditors of Small Businesses and Auditors of Broker-Dealers

    The Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) announced today that PCAOB Board Member Kara M. Stein will host an in-person forum on auditing in the small business environment and on auditing broker-dealers on November 12, 2025. The one-day event – part of a series of 2025 forums – will take place at Loyola Marymount University (St. Robert’s Hall, 1 LMU Drive, Los Angeles, CA, 90045).

    “Auditors of smaller public companies and of broker-dealers make up essential parts of the auditing landscape and our investor-protection framework,” said Board Member Stein. “The PCAOB is dedicated to engaging with our stakeholders in support of vibrant capital markets, and I look forward to continuing this dialogue in Los Angeles.”

    Tailored to PCAOB-registered firms auditing smaller public companies or broker-dealers, the forums provide a unique opportunity for auditors to interact with representatives from the PCAOB and other regulators.

    In addition to remarks from Board Member Stein, the agenda includes the following:

    • Presentations by PCAOB staff from the Office of the Chief Auditor, the Division of Registration and Inspections, and the Division of Enforcement and Investigations.
    • Presentation of illustrative examples related to audit risks associated with revenue, cash flow projections, related party transactions, and review of exemption reports.
    • Discussion of resources that the PCAOB has recently released to assist and inform auditors in their implementation QC 1000, A Firm’s System of Quality Control, and other standards.
    • Presentations by staff of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA). 

    Registration Required for the November 12 Forum; CPE Available

    There is no fee to attend the Los Angeles forum, but advance registration is required and can be completed here. While the event is in-person only, a recording of the event will be made available on the PCAOB’s website. Attendees can earn continuing professional education (CPE) credits.

    Forum attendees are encouraged to submit questions in advance via email. There also will be an opportunity to submit questions during the forum.

    Visit the PCAOB’s Information for Smaller Firms page – which the PCAOB maintains as part of its ongoing efforts to support smaller audit firms – to find resources including publications, videos, and a sign-up form for the Communications to Small Audit Firm Practitioners mailing list.

    *****

    About the PCAOB

    The PCAOB is a nonprofit corporation established by Congress to oversee the audits of public companies in order to protect investors and further the public interest in the preparation of informative, accurate, and independent audit reports. The PCAOB also oversees the audits of brokers and dealers registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including compliance reports filed pursuant to federal securities laws.

    Continue Reading

  • Google offers free one-year AI Pro plan for Pakistani students over 18

    Google has announced a free one-year subscription to its Google AI Pro plan for students in Pakistan who are 18 years or older.

    The initiative aims to assist students in enhancing their learning, research, and creativity by providing access to advanced AI tools at no cost.

    With the Gemini AI Pro Plan, eligible students can explore Google’s most powerful AI features, including the Gemini 2.5 Pro model, Gemini integration in Google Apps, and NotebookLM.

    The Gemini 2.5 Pro model offers more in-depth features such as Deep Research, which helps with assignments, research, and creative projects. Additionally, Gemini in Google Apps integrates AI assistance into tools like Gmail, Docs, Sheets, Slides, and Meet, enabling students to summarize emails, create presentations, and analyze data more efficiently.

    NotebookLM, an AI-powered research and writing tool, offers five times more Audio Overviews, Notebooks, and other features to assist students with their academic work.

    The plan also includes the ability to create dynamic videos from text or photos, access higher limits for tools like Veo 3 and Flow, and enjoy 2TB of cloud storage across Google Drive, Gmail, and Photos for storing notes, projects, and academic resources securely.

    This offer is part of Google’s mission to empower students globally by providing them with the tools they need to enhance their education and creativity.

    The Google Gemini AI Pro Plan is available now for eligible university students across several countries in the Asia-Pacific region, including Pakistan. Students can sign up to gain free access for up to one year and begin using these advanced AI tools.

    Continue Reading

  • Speech by Governor Barr on the economic outlook

    Speech by Governor Barr on the economic outlook

    Thank you to the Economic Club of Minnesota for the opportunity to speak to you today.1 I’m happy to be here for several reasons, one of which is that I have roots in Minnesota. My grandmother was born and raised in Eveleth, where her parents ran a small clothing store they opened in 1906 to serve the growing population that came here in the iron ore mining boom of that era. That generation’s hard work and dreams of a better future helped build this great state as well as the prosperous economy that this club and the Federal Reserve are both dedicated to fostering.

    We are midway between the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and our next meeting at the end of this month. At our last meeting in September, we decided to reduce the policy rate by 25 basis points, a decision I supported. My FOMC colleagues and I also updated our projections for the economic outlook for the next couple of years and gave our assessments of the likely appropriate policy rate path as economic conditions evolve. In my remarks today, I will share my own thinking related to those decisions last month, and how incoming data and other developments have subsequently shaped my views as we head into the FOMC’s next meeting in three weeks. That includes the economic implications of various developments in Washington including the federal government shutdown, which I imagine is on the minds of many of you today.

    We are currently in a challenging position, because the risks to both sides of the FOMC’s mandate—employment and inflation—are elevated. I agree with Chair Powell’s succinct view that there is no risk-free path forward for monetary policy. While inflation has come down a great deal since 2021, it is still above our 2 percent target and is now rising. And although several data points indicate that the labor market may be roughly in balance, we also know there has been a sharp drop in job creation since May, which suggests risks to the labor market going forward. The most difficult circumstances for making monetary policy decisions are when both mandate variables are at risk.

    Let me start with inflation. The latest data show that 12-month headline inflation based on personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose again in August to 2.7 percent. Core PCE inflation, which has historically been a good guide to future inflation, was 2.9 percent. After falling from its high of 7.2 percent in mid-2022 to 2.3 percent in April of this year, PCE inflation has been rising since then.

    That timing is no coincidence. Research by Federal Reserve staff and others indicates that the increase in inflation since April has likely owed largely to the sharp increase in tariffs that kicked in around then. There are various measures of the overall level of tariffs. For assessing how tariffs are affecting inflation, I find it helpful to look at tariff collections relative to imports, which gives us a measure of the real effective tariff rate paid as goods come into the country. This rate has risen sharply this year, reaching about 11 percent in August, and is likely to rise further in the near term.

    The tariff hikes have boosted core goods inflation, and at the same time progress on core services inflation has stalled. I expect that core PCE inflation will end the year over 3 percent.

    The median FOMC participant estimates that headline PCE inflation will not return to our 2 percent target until the end of 2027, more than two years from today and six and a half years since inflation began rising in 2021. This would be the longest period of PCE inflation above 2 percent since a seven-year stretch that ended in 1993. I recognize that the economy and the American people have been hit by a series of unusual economic shocks in recent years—the COVID-19 pandemic and related shutdowns, disrupted supply chains for goods and labor shortages, higher energy costs from Russia’s war on Ukraine, and the sudden increase in tariffs this year. Even so, after the high inflation Americans have endured, two more years would be a long time to wait for a return to our target, and that possibility weighs on my judgment for appropriate monetary policy.

    I am also concerned about further upside risks to inflation and inflation expectations. While the immediate effects of tariffs on inflation have been smaller than most economic forecasters had expected, the inventories built up in anticipation of the tariffs may have had a role in easing the immediate impact, as have compressed profit margins. While that is good news for inflation, the corresponding bad news is that firms will eventually run down those inventories and will only be able to compress margins for a while. Many importers, and firms affected by imports, are reporting that they are waiting as long as possible to pass on the costs from tariffs to their customers, mostly by temporarily reducing profit margins.2 Normalizing margins over time implies a gradual, but longer, upward trajectory for inflation, a pattern of price increases that I fear could convince many consumers that higher inflation is going to be more of a permanent phenomenon. This is important because expectations of future inflation affect spending decisions in the near term and can drive a cycle of escalating inflation, as we saw after prices began rising in 2021.

    With that experience in mind, I am skeptical of assurances that we should fully “look through” higher inflation from import tariffs. While, in principle, tariffs are a one-time increase in prices and should not sustainably raise inflation, that may not be the case if prices keep rising month after month and affect expectations. There has been nothing “one-time” or predictable about these tariff increases, which have ratcheted upward this year on particular countries and particular sectors in a series of steps. At some point, businesses and consumers could start to make pricing, spending, and wage decisions based on their belief in higher future inflation, thereby driving a cycle of persistence. Measures of near-term inflation expectations are down from peaks in April when tariffs were announced, but they are still higher than last year.

    As a result, I believe the Federal Reserve’s price stability goal faces significant risks. That said, there are some factors that mitigate these risks. In particular, the softer labor market could help keep inflation in check by making it harder for workers to bargain for higher wages even if people expect their cost of living to increase, and by making it harder for businesses to fully pass through price increases to consumers. In addition, the more gradual effect of tariffs on prices has not, to date, led to the type of supply chain dislocations that can have pronounced second-round effects on inflation. Also, longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.

    So let’s turn to the labor market. While we do not have the full complement of labor market data because the government shutdown has delayed the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ employment report, we do know that the payroll services firm ADP found that private-sector employment shrank last month, in keeping with a slowdown in job creation since May. Part of the slowing surely reflects developments on the supply side—from both reduced net immigration and somewhat reduced labor force participation—but it is unclear exactly how much. As a result, it is challenging to gauge exactly how much labor demand has softened. Growth in labor supply has declined significantly, with perhaps as many as a million fewer people in the workforce than would have been expected based on the typical pattern of immigration that prevailed in the years prior to the pandemic. With a reduced supply of labor, what constitutes a healthy growth rate for employment would be smaller. One can see that slower labor supply growth has been an important factor in the weaker job creation, because over the period that job gains have slowed significantly, the unemployment rate has only edged up to 4.3 percent, a level typically associated with a sound labor market.

    Other measures suggest that labor supply and demand remain in the same rough balance they have been in for more than a year. The ratio of job openings to the number of people looking for work is around 1, the level that has persisted since about the middle of 2024. Likewise, the rate of people losing their jobs is running at the same rate that it has for the past two and a half years, and there is no sign of an impending jump in the unemployment rate in the weekly reports of new claims for unemployment insurance. That said, even if the labor market is still roughly in balance, the fact that this balance is being achieved from simultaneous slowing in labor supply growth and in hiring suggests that the labor market is more vulnerable to negative shocks.

    In addition, despite the low and relatively steady unemployment rate, household perceptions of the labor market have deteriorated and are below the level they reached in the strong labor market immediately before the pandemic. According to the New York Fed’s survey of consumers, people’s perceptions of their chance of finding a new job if they lost their current job fell sharply in August to the lowest reading since the survey started in June 2013. It rebounded somewhat in September, but remained at levels seen in 2013, when the labor market was weak. Also, components of the workforce that are usually an early indication of cyclical changes in the labor market have deteriorated. The unemployment rate for Black or African American workers, which reached a historic low in 2023, is back to its highest level since the pandemic. Unemployment rates for younger workers are also up.

    One reason I take these signals seriously is that experience shows that when labor markets turn down, it can happen suddenly. With job growth near zero for the past several months, the labor market could decline precipitously if the economy is hit with another shock. Growth in gross domestic product (GDP) has slowed significantly this year; however, earlier concerns of a continued slowdown seem to be fading. After a negative reading in the first quarter, real GDP grew at a 3.8 percent rate in the second quarter—smoothing through to a rate of 1.6 percent for the first half of the year. Strong spending and other data for the third quarter indicate that GDP remained strong last quarter. While I expect that tariffs and lower labor supply have weighed on growth and will continue to do so, I do not yet see significant risks in the growth data, though I remain attuned to risks from a variety of factors. It is hard to judge at this point whether the federal government shutdown will leave a noticeable imprint on economic growth, because we don’t know how long it will last, and whether it may result in sustained changes in government spending. Based on past shutdowns, it is most likely that a shutdown would reduce GDP growth in the quarter in which it occurs and then boost growth in the subsequent quarter by the same amount.

    As I said earlier, this economic outlook, and the associated uncertainties that underlie it, pose challenges for judging the correct stance of monetary policy as well as the appropriate path forward, given that the risks to achieving both components of our mandate are elevated.

    With the easing in output growth and the likelihood of tariffs and labor supply weighing on the economy in the months ahead, we need to be prepared for the possibility that the softening in the labor market will become something worse, especially if there is a further adverse shock to demand.

    At the same time, inflation, which made steady progress last year toward the FOMC’s 2 percent goal, has moved up in 2025, especially after the sharp increase in tariffs, which keep rising. I have laid out my reasons for believing that the so far modest impact of tariffs on inflation probably means a much longer-lasting rachet upward, potentially affecting expectations in a way that makes the job of taming inflation harder.

    In balancing and managing these risks to the FOMC’s goals, I supported the Committee’s decision on September 17 to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points. Monetary policy was and remains modestly restrictive, so it seemed to me appropriate to move the rate a bit closer toward neutral, pending more data and further developments on the economy, the forecast, and the balance of risks. Since that meeting, we have learned that consumer spending has been on a notably stronger trajectory than previously indicated, leading most observers to revise up estimates of spending and GDP growth for the rest of the year. We also got confirmation that PCE inflation moved up as expected, and that core inflation remains well above the FOMC’s target. Another development was the announcement of new tariffs on imports of heavy trucks, medicine, and furniture.

    There was, and remains, considerable uncertainty about the future course of the economy. It is possible that recent low payroll growth is a harbinger of worse to come, or that payroll growth eventually strengthens, consistent with the low unemployment rate and sound growth. It is possible that tariffs will have only a modest impact on the course of prices and that progress resumes toward 2 percent inflation next year, but it is also possible that both inflation and expectations of future inflation escalate.

    Common sense would indicate that when there is a lot of uncertainty, one should move cautiously. This is validated by past monetary policymaking experience, and a particular research insight from nearly 60 years ago. The Brainard principle, developed by economist William Brainard, holds that when there is considerable uncertainty about the consequences of a policy action, the recommended course is to move more gradually than would otherwise be the case.3 I believe that principle applies now, and that the FOMC should be cautious about adjusting policy so that we can gather further data, update our forecasts, and better assess the balance of risks. If we see inflation moving further away from our target, then it may be necessary to keep policy at least modestly restrictive for longer. If we see heightened risks in the labor market, then we may need to move more quickly to ease policy. The FOMC can, and I believe would, act forcefully to stabilize the economy if necessary.

    I think a cautious approach will help us to balance the risks to both sides of our mandate as we continue to assess the economic outlook.

    Thank you.


    1. The views expressed here are my own and are not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee. Return to text

    2. There is little evidence that foreign producers are absorbing the cost of tariffs; see Robbie Minton and Mariano Somale (2025), “Detecting Tariff Effects on Consumer Prices in Real Time,” FEDS Notes (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, May 9). Return to text

    3. See William C. Brainard (1967), “Uncertainty and the Effectiveness of Policy,” American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, vol. 57 (May), pp. 411–25. Return to text

    Continue Reading