Category: 3. Business

Scientists sometimes compare predicting the course of epidemics to forecasting the weather.

But there’s a major difference — the impact of human behavior —  says Alessandro Vespignani, director of Northeastern University’s Network Science Institute. 

Consider what happens during a downpour, he says. “If we all open an umbrella, it will rain anyway.”

“In epidemics, if we all open the umbrella in the sense that we behave differently, the epidemic will spread differently,” Vespignani says. “If we are more risk averse, we might avoid places. We might wash our hands more and so on and so forth.”

That makes modeling the interplay between human behavior and infectious disease transmission one of the remaining key challenges in epidemiology, according to a paper Vespignani and colleagues published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).

“It’s very difficult to integrate behavior in the models,” especially since existing behavioral models often lack real-world data calibration, says Vespignani, Northeastern’s Sternberg Family Distinguished Professor.

But now, thanks to what they learned during COVID-19, researchers say they have found a solution.

The pandemic released a global flood of data in terms of traceable illness and death, accompanied by electronic data such as geolocation from mobile phones that indicated changing patterns in daily commutes, Vespignani says.

Being allowed access to such large data sets led the researchers to novel, possibly groundbreaking, discoveries about the best ways to incorporate behavioral changes into models of disease progression, Vespignani says.

“We are really moving the frontier of epidemic and outbreak analytics and forecasting to the next level,” he says.

“All the data accumulated in the past few years and the knowledge is creating an understanding that hopefully will put us in a different place the next time we have to manage an infectious disease threat.”

The study in PNAS looked at three different behavioral models — one data-driven and two mechanistic — across nine geographic areas during the first wave of COVID to evaluate how well they were able to capture the interplay between disease transmission and behavior.

The mechanistic model, which describes the mechanism of behavioral changes,  outperformed the data-driven model, which employs machine learning to find patterns, in coming up with both a short-term forecast and retrospective analysis, Vespignani says.

“In a sense that was a bit of a surprise,” given scientists’ traditional preference for data modeling, he says.

A major advantage of mechanistic models is how they took into consideration that individuals exposed to the news of the pandemic started to change their behavior even before mandates were established, Vespignani says.

And risk aversion grew as COVID spread and more people were infected.

BBC

Nick Cosgriff

Network Rail

PA Media

A plane which was due to travel from the UK to Turkey had to turn back after a bird strike.

The EasyJet flight from Liverpool to Bodrum “performed a routine landing” shortly after it took off at 16:15 BST and the flight was delayed, the airline said.

A spokeswoman said: “The pilot returned to Liverpool in line with our procedures and performed a routine landing where it will be inspected by engineers.”

She said the safety of passengers and crew was EasyJet’s “highest priority”.

Microsoft said Wednesday that it will lay off about 9,000 employees. The move will affect less than 4% of its global workforce across different teams, geographies and levels of experience, a person familiar with the matter told CNBC.

The announcement comes on the second day of Microsoft’s 2026 fiscal year. Executives at the Redmond, Washington-based company typically unveil reorganizations at the time of the new fiscal year.

“We continue to implement organizational changes necessary to best position the company and teams for success in a dynamic marketplace,” a Microsoft spokesperson said in an email.

Microsoft has held several rounds of layoffs already this calendar year. In January, it cut less than 1% of headcount based on performance. The 50-year-old software company slashed more than 6,000 jobs in May and then at least 300 more in June. As of June 2024 it employed 228,000 people. In 2023, it laid off 10,000.

Perhaps the largest culling of Microsoft workers came in 2014, when the company eliminated 18,000 after acquiring Nokia’s devices and services business.

As was the case with the May layoffs, Microsoft is looking to reduce the number of layers of managers that stand between individual contributors and top executives, said the person who asked not to be named while discussing internal matters.

“To position Gaming for enduring success and allow us to focus on strategic growth areas, we will end or decrease work in certain areas of the business and follow Microsoft’s lead in removing layers of management to increase agility and effectiveness,” Phil Spencer, Microsoft’s CEO of gaming, wrote in a Wednesday memo to employees in that division.

Microsoft reported nearly $26 billion in net income on $70 billion in revenue for the March quarter. The numbers were well ahead of Wall Street’s consensus, keeping Microsoft ranked as one of the most profitable companies in the S&P 500 index, according to data compiled by FactSet.

Executives called for about 14% year-over-year revenue growth in the June quarter, thanks to expected expansion in Azure cloud services and corporate productivity software subscriptions

Microsoft stock closed at a record high of $497.45 per share on June 26. At the start of Wednesday’s trading session, the shares were down about 0.6%, while the S&P 500 was roughly flat.

Autodesk, Chegg and CrowdStrike are among the other software providers that have slimmed down in 2025. Earlier on Wednesday, payroll processing company ADP said the U.S. private sector lost 33,000 jobs in June. Economists polled by Dow Jones had predicted an increase of 100,000.

Private sector hiring unexpectedly contracted in June, payrolls processing firm ADP said Wednesday, in a possible sign that the economy may not be as sturdy as investors believe as they bid the S&P 500 back up to record territory to end the month.

Private payrolls lost 33,000 jobs in June, the ADP report showed, the first decrease since March 2023. Economists polled by Dow Jones forecast an increase of 100,000 for the month. The May job growth figure was revised even lower to just 29,000 jobs added from 37,000.

“Though layoffs continue to be rare, a hesitancy to hire and a reluctance to replace departing workers led to job losses last month,” Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist, said in a press release published Wednesday morning.

To be sure, the ADP report has a spotty track record on predicting the subsequent government jobs report, which investors tend to weigh more heavily. May’s soft ADP data ended up differing significantly from the monthly jobs report figures that came later in the week.

This week, the government’s nonfarm payrolls report will be out on Thursday with economists expecting a healthy 110,000 increase for June, per Dow Jones estimates. Economists are expecting the unemployment rate to tick higher to 4.3% from 4.2%. Some economists could revise down their jobs reports estimates following ADP’s data.

Weekly jobless claims data is also due Thursday, with economists penciling in 240,000. This string of labor stats comes during a shortened trading week, with the market closing early on Thursday and remaining dark on Friday in honor of the July Fourth holiday.

Service roles hit hardest

The bulk of job losses came in service roles tied to professional and business services and health and education, according to ADP. Professional/business services notched a decline of 56,000, while health/education saw a net loss of 52,000.

Financial activity roles also contributed to the month’s decline with a drop of 14,000 on balance.

But the contraction was capped by payroll expansions in goods-producing roles across industries such as manufacturing and mining. All together, goods-producing positions grew by 32,000 in the month, while payrolls for service roles overall fell by 66,000.

The Midwest and Western U.S. saw the strongest contractions in June, declining by 24,000 and 20,000, respectively. Meanwhile, the Northeast shed 3,000 roles. The Southern U.S. was the sole region tracked by the ADP to see payrolls expand on net in the month, recording an increase of 13,000 positions.

The smallest firms tended to see more job losses in the month than their larger counterparts. In fact, businesses with more than 500 employees saw the biggest payroll growth in the month with an increase of 30,000, per ADP. By comparison, businesses with fewer than 20 employees accounted for 29,000 lost roles on net.

Annual income growth decreased modestly from May for both job stayers and hoppers. The rate of pay increase for those staying in their jobs ticked down to 4.4% from 4.5%, while those getting new roles slid to 6.8% from 7%.

The S&P 500 is up more than 4% for the year, posting a stunning comeback in the second quarter after worries about President Donald Trump’s tariff fights nearly sent the benchmark into a bear market.

Researchers in the Department of Forest Biomaterials are developing a proprietary material that could serve as a sustainable alternative to one of the world’s most significant sources of pollution: plastic foam. 

“Our material eliminates polystyrene foam materials that are filling landfills and persisting as litter in the environment,” said Richard Venditti, the Elis-Signe Olsson Professor of Pulp and Paper Science and Engineering.

Plastic foam, often known by the brand name Styrofoam, is used in many everyday products — from disposable food and beverage containers like cups and plates to shipping materials such as packing peanuts and protective packaging.

While convenient, plastic foam presents a significant environmental challenge due to its lack of biodegradability and difficulty in recycling. Estimates indicate that plastic foam takes up to 30% of landfill space globally. 

Venditti, alongside Joel Pawlak and Alfonso Dominguez Gonzalez of the Department of Forest Biomaterials, began working to develop a biobased alternative about a year ago and have since created a material made from a mix of natural fibers.

The fiber-based material, which is fully recyclable and biodegradable, could someday replace plastic foam materials used in cushioning and insulation for packaging, providing an option for companies seeking sustainable alternatives.

In addition to packaging materials, the material could potentially be utilized in furniture and vehicle cushioning, construction panels and insulation for food and temperature-sensitive medical products.

Venditti and his collaborators recently secured support from the Chancellor’s Innovation Fund (CIF) to continue their research. The fund awards support to a select few short-term, commercially focused research projects every year.

“Recieving this award is an honor,” Pawlak said. “The Chancellor’s Innovation Fund shows the university’s commitment to commercializing technologies that can benefit the citizens of North Carolina.”

The researchers plan to utilize the CIF funds to engage prospective industry partners, including fiber producers, insulation and cushioning foam manufacturers, and retail companies that depend on packaging to ship their goods.

Indeed, just as the CEOs were pouring out their woes to the Commission president, a few floors below, Teresa Ribera, commissioner for a clean industrial transition, was presenting the bloc’s climate targets for 2040.

Von der Leyen’s center-right European People’s Party is widely accused of watering down the EU’s environmental agenda to help preserve competitiveness, and the German visitors seemed satisfied she was alive to their interests.

The Commission president was “listening very closely to the details,” said Hendrik Wüst, the minister-president of the industrial powerhouse region of North Rhine-Westphalia, who accompanied the CEOs. “We have passed along quite a lot of good subjects to President von der Leyen, who will also support competitiveness,” he added. “We have received quite a strong signal from her.”

Wüst hails from von der Leyen’s party in Germany, the Christian Democratic Union within the EPP’s group.

Industry representatives from other EU member countries haven’t been as lucky. Confindustria, the Italian business confederation, told POLITICO that Italian industry leaders never get that kind of facetime with the president.

But the Germans paraded their ease of access. Markus Steilemann, chief executive of chemicals company Covestro, told POLITICO this wasn’t the first time he had met the Commission’s top official. There have been “numerous occasions,” he said, ascribing it to his “numerous accountabilities within the European chemical industry, within the German chemical industry, but also as a CEO.”

President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the US will charge 20% tariffs on imports from Vietnam under a new trade deal reached during last-minute negotiations.

A much higher levy of 46% was set to go into effect next week as part of the global tariff plan Trump announced in April. Dozens of other economies, including the European Union and Japan, are still scrambling to make their own deals with the US before the planned increases.

Under the agreement, Vietnam will charge no tariffs on US products, Trump said in a social media post.

Tariffs typically push up the prices that shoppers are charged, which in turn can drive down demand.

The “Great Deal of Cooperation”, as Trump called it, will also impose a steeper tariff of 40% on goods that pass through Vietnam in a process known as “transshipping”.

“Vietnam will do something that they have never done before, give the United States of America TOTAL ACCESS to their Markets for Trade,” Trump posted on his Truth Social platform.

“In other words, they will ‘OPEN THEIR MARKET TO THE UNITED STATES,’ meaning that we will be able to sell our product into Vietnam at ZERO Tariff,” he added.

The president said he believed US-made SUVs, “which do so well in the United States, will be a wonderful addition to the various product lines within Vietnam”.

Shares in clothing companies and sport equipment manufacturers – which have a large footprint in Vietnam – rose on the news a deal had been reached, but later declined sharply after the president released details, including the continued tariffs.

Trump initially imposed steep levies on trading partners around the world in April , citing a lack of “reciprocity”, but then announced a pause where they were all lowered to 10%.

Many countries then approached the US to negotiate trade deals, according to the White House.

Since April, Washington had so far only announced a pact with Britain and a deal to temporarily lower retaliatory duties with China.