Category: 3. Business

• NPL volumes in CESEE down 3.5 per cent year on year in Q2 2025, reaching €28 billion
• Overall coverage ratio dips to 63.3 per cent, but remains above pre pandemic norms
• Pockets of risk in commercial real estate, SME and retail sectors, with bank NBFI linkages flagged as a vulnerability

Non-performing loans (NPLs) in central, eastern and south-eastern Europe (CESEE) remained at historic lows in Q2 2025 despite ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures, according to the latest edition of the EBRD’s NPL Monitor, which was published today.

NPL volumes in the region fell by 3.5 per cent year on year to stand at €28 billion in that quarter, helped by borrowers’ solid fundamentals and active balance-sheet management.

The average NPL ratio in the region remained broadly stable at 1.93 per cent, while the overall coverage ratio dipped slightly due to softer provisioning in some markets but remained comfortably above pre-pandemic levels at 63.3 per cent.

The headline figures suggest that the region remains resilient in the face of continuing geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic pressures. Low unemployment and borrowers’ strong liquidity have helped to improve credit quality, limiting numbers of new NPLs.

At the same time, national trends are diverging amid variation in macro pressures, sector-level exposure and policy responses.

The report notes that there are pockets of risk in sectors such as commercial real estate, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and retail, with affordability and refinancing hampered by the fact that interest rates remain high. The report also warns that the interconnectedness of banks and non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) is another vulnerability and could amplify stress in adverse scenarios.

Activity in the NPL market remains robust, with secondary liquidity improving but uneven. Greece continues to lead the way when it comes to secondary sales, while Türkiye has seen a rise in primary deal flows. In contrast, smaller CESEE markets have seen limited volumes, dominated by small retail portfolio disposals to local asset managers.

The NPL Monitor urges supervisors to maintain their proactive surveillance of sectoral risk pockets, intensify monitoring of bank-NBFI linkages, and act early if numbers of Stage 2 loans increase. Timely intervention and robust provisioning remain critical in order to safeguard financial stability, the report concludes.

The EBRD’s NPL Monitor is a semi-annual publication under the Vienna Initiative’s NPL Initiative, covering 17 CESEE countries and selected non-CESEE markets. The NPL Monitor is published on the Vienna Initiative’s website, alongside partner publications prepared by the International Monetary Fund (the CESEE Deleveraging and Credit Monitor) and the European Investment Bank (the CESEE Bank Lending Survey), which are also being issued today.

The Vienna Initiative was established in 2009 during the global financial crisis with the aim of safeguarding the financial stability of emerging Europe by bringing together banks, governments, regulators and international financial institutions.

 

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Summary

At around 15:45 on Friday 13 December 2024, a passenger train operated by Southern Railway struck the buffer stop on arrival in platform 12 at London Bridge station at a speed of around 2.3 mph (3.7 km/h). There were no reported injuries to the driver or to the passengers on the train and there was very minor damage caused to the train and railway infrastructure.

The train had been travelling at 13.3 mph (21.4 km/h) when it entered the platform and its speed gradually reduced as it progressed towards the buffer stop. When the train was around 3.5 metres from the buffer stop and travelling at a speed of 6.8 mph (10.9 km/h) the driver made an emergency brake application. Despite this, there was insufficient distance remaining to prevent the collision.

The accident occurred because the driver of the train did not apply the brakes in time on approach to the buffer stops, almost certainly because they experienced a microsleep, due to fatigue. There are several factors that may have contributed to the driver’s fatigue. Two probable causal factors in the accident were that the base duty roster was constructed in a way that increased the risk of fatigue and that the driver had also worked many of their rostered rest days in the period up to the accident, further increasing the risk of fatigue. A possible causal factor was that the driver had less than their normal amount of sleep the night before the accident.

A further causal factor was that none of the engineered protection systems fitted to the train intervened to prevent the collision. The Train Protection and Warning System fitted on approach to the buffer stops did not automatically apply the train’s brakes because the train was travelling below the set intervention speed. Other safety systems fitted on board the train could not detect the short loss of driver alertness that occurred.

A probable underlying factor to the accident was that the management of fatigue risk by Govia Thameslink Railway, the company operating the Southern Railway franchise, was not sufficiently effective and that it had not adopted some elements of industry good practice in fatigue risk management. A second underlying factor was that there are no safety systems currently fitted to mainline trains which can detect and mitigate short losses in driver alertness.

As part of its investigation, RAIB observed that the actual hours that staff work were not considered in the management of Govia Thameslink Railway safety-critical staff with medical conditions when external advice was being sought as to their fitness for work.

Recommendations

RAIB has made two recommendations as a result of this investigation, one addressed to Govia Thameslink Railway to improve its fatigue management process and to follow industry best practice. The other is addressed to the Rail Safety and Standards Board, in consultation with the rail industry, to provide guidance when seeking external advice about medical conditions and working hours that may increase the risk of fatigue in safety-critical staff.

Notes to editors

1. The sole purpose of RAIB investigations is to prevent future accidents and incidents and improve railway safety. RAIB does not establish blame, liability or carry out prosecutions.

2. RAIB operates, as far as possible, in an open and transparent manner. While our investigations are completely independent of the railway industry, we do maintain close liaison with railway companies and if we discover matters that may affect the safety of the railway, we make sure that information about them is circulated to the right people as soon as possible, and certainly long before publication of our final report.

3. For media enquiries, please call 01932 440015.

Newsdate: 17 December 2025

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The October data shows:

• on average, house prices have fallen -0.1% since September 2025
• there has been an annual price rise of 1.7% which makes the average property in the UK valued at £270,000

England

In England the October data shows, on average, house prices fell by 0.1% since September 2025. The annual price rise of 1.4% takes the average property value to £292,000.

The regional data for England indicates that:

• the North East experienced the most significant monthly increase with a movement of 1.3%

• London saw the biggest monthly price fall, with a movement of -1.9%

• the North East experienced the greatest annual price rise, up by 5%

• London saw the lowest annual price growth, with a decrease of -2.4%

Price change by region for England

Region	Average price October 2025	Annual change % since October 2024	Monthly change % since September 2025
East Midlands	£241,000	2.3	-0.1
East of England	£340,000	1.9	0.3
London	£547,000	-2.4	-1.9
North East	£163,000	5	1.3
North West	£214,000	3.1	0.3
South East	£384,000	0.7	0.3
South West	£303,000	-1.3	-0.6
West Midlands	£248,000	2.7	0.1
Yorkshire and the Humber	£206,000	3.1	-0.2

Repossession sales by volume for England

The lowest number of repossession sales in August 2025 were in the East of England.
The highest number of repossession sales in August  2025 was in Yorkshire and the Humber.

Repossession sales	August 2025
East Midlands	6
East of England	2
London	9
North East	20
North West	10
South East	10
South West	11
West Midlands	11
Yorkshire and the Humber	21
England	100

Average price by property type for England

Property type	October 2025	October  2024	Difference %
Detached	£470,000	£465,000	1.1
Semi-detached	£290,000	£279,000	3.8
Terraced	£244,000	£238,000	2.4
Flat/maisonette	£219,000	£227,000	-3.6
All	£292,000	£288,000	1.4

Funding and buyer status for England

Transaction type	Average price October 2025	Annual price change % since October 2024	Monthly price change % since September 2025
Cash	£277,000	0.5	-0.3
Mortgage	£297,000	1.7	0
First-time buyer	£245,000	1.7	0.2
Former owner occupier	£353,000	1	-0.4

Building status for England

Building status*	Average price August 2025	Annual price change % since August 2024	Monthly price change % since July 2025
New build	£403,000	13.4	1.1
Existing resold property	£290,000	1.7	0.7

*Figures for the 2 most recent months are not being published because there are not enough new build transactions to give a meaningful result.

London

London shows, on average, house prices fell by 1.9% since September 2025. House prices have shown an annual price decrease of 2.4% meaning the average price of a property is £547,000.

Average price by property type for London

Property type	October 2025	October 2024	Difference %
Detached	£1,133,000	£1,149,000	-1.4
Semi-detached	£713,000	£703,000	1.4
Terraced	£630,000	£628,000	0.4
Flat/maisonette	£428,000	£451,000	-5.1
All	£547,000	£561,000	-2.4

Funding and buyer status for London

Transaction type	Average price October 2025	Annual price change % since October 2024	Monthly price change % since September 2025
Cash	£576,000	-4.7	-2.9
Mortgage	£542,000	-1.7	-1.6
First-time buyer	£469,000	-2.5	-1.6
Former owner occupier	£681,000	-2.2	-2.4

Building status for London

Building status*	Average price August 2025	Annual price change % since August 2024	Monthly price change % since July 2025
New build	£531,000	5.3	-0.3
Existing resold property	£563,000	-1.3	-0.7

*Figures for the 2 most recent months are not being published because there are not enough new build transactions to give a meaningful result.

Wales

Wales shows, on average, house prices fell by 1.1% since September 2025. An annual price increase of 1.5% takes the average property value to £211,000.

There were 6 repossession sales for Wales in July 2025.

Average price by property type for Wales

Property type	October 2025	October 2024	Difference %
Detached	£329,000	£326,000	0.6
Semi-detached	£211,000	£205,000	3.3
Terraced	£168,000	£165,000	1.6
Flat/maisonette	£128,000	£131,000	-1.9
All	£211,000	£207,000	1.5

Funding and buyer status for Wales

Transaction type	Average price October 2025%	Annual price change % since October 2024	Monthly price change % since September 2025
Cash	£210,000	1	1.1
Mortgage	£211,000	1.8	1.1
First-time buyer	£181,000	1.9	1.3
Former owner occupier	£251,000	1	0.7

Building status for Wales

Building status*	Average price August 2025	Annual price change % since August 2024	Monthly price change % since July 2025
New build	£345,000	13.9	1.1
Existing resold property	£208,000	1.2	0.6

*Figures for the 2 most recent months are not being published because there are not enough new build transactions to give a meaningful result.

UK house prices

UK house prices rose by 1.7% in the year to October 2025, down from the revised estimate of 2% in the 12 months to September 2025. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, average house prices in the UK decreased by 0.1% between September 2025 and October 2025, compared with a decrease of 0.2% from the same period 12 months ago (September 24 and October 2024).

The UK Property Transactions Statistics showed that in October 2025, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the estimated number of transactions of residential properties with a value of £40,000 or greater was 98,000. This is 2.1% lower than a year ago (October 2025). Between September 2025 and October 25, UK transactions increased by 1.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The highest monthly house price rise was in the North East where prices increased by 1.3% in the month to October 2025. The highest annual growth was also in the North East, where prices increased by 5% in the year to October 2025.

See the economic statement.

The UK HPI is based on completed housing transactions. Typically, a house purchase can take 6 to 8 weeks to reach completion. As with other indicators in the housing market, which typically fluctuate from month to month, it is important not to put too much weight on one month’s set of house price data.

Access the full UK HPI.

Background

1. We publish the UK House Price Index (HPI) on the second or third Wednesday of each month with Northern Ireland figures updated quarterly. We will publish the November 2025 UK HPI at 9:30am on Wednesday 21 January 2026. See the calendar of release dates.
2. We have made some changes to improve the accuracy of the UK HPI. We are not publishing average price and percentage change for new builds and existing resold property as done previously because there are not currently enough new build transactions to provide a reliable result. This means that in this month’s UK HPI reports, new builds and existing resold property are reported in line with the sales volumes currently available.
3. The UK HPI revision period has been extended to 13 months, following a review of the revision policy (see calculating the UK HPI section 4.4). This ensures the data used is more comprehensive.
4. Sales volume data is available by property status (new build and existing property) and funding status (cash and mortgage) in our downloadable data tables. Transactions that require us to create a new register, such as new builds, are more complex and require more time to process. Read revisions to the UK HPI data.
5. Revision tables are available for England and Wales within the downloadable data in CSV format. See about the UK HPI for more information.
6. HM Land Registry, Registers of Scotland, Land & Property Services/Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency and the Valuation Office Agency supply data for the UK HPI.
7. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) and Land & Property Services/Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency calculate the UK HPI. It applies a hedonic regression model that uses the various sources of data on property price, including HM Land Registry’s Price Paid Dataset, and attributes to produce estimates of the change in house prices each month. Find out more about the methodology used from the ONS and Northern Ireland Statistics & Research Agency.
8. We take the UK Property Transaction statistics  from the HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) monthly estimates of the number of residential and non-residential property transactions in the UK and its constituent countries. The number of property transactions in the UK is highly seasonal, with more activity in the summer months and less in the winter. This regular annual pattern can sometimes mask the underlying movements and trends in the data series. HMRC presents the UK aggregate transaction figures on a seasonally adjusted basis. We make adjustments for both the time of year and the construction of the calendar, including corrections for the position of Easter and the number of trading days in a particular month.
9. UK HPI seasonally adjusted series are calculated at regional and national levels only. See data tables.
10. The first estimate for new build average price (April 2016 report) was based on a small sample which can cause volatility. A three-month moving average has been applied to the latest estimate to remove some of this volatility.
11. The UK HPI reflects the final transaction price for sales of residential property. Using the geometric mean, it covers purchases at market value for owner-occupation and buy-to-let, excluding those purchases not at market value (such as re-mortgages), where the ‘price’ represents a valuation.
12. HM Land Registry provides information on residential property transactions for England and Wales, collected as part of the official registration process for properties that are sold for full market value.
13. The HM Land Registry dataset contains the sale price of the property, the date when the sale was completed, full address details, the type of property (detached, semi-detached, terraced or flat), if it is a newly built property or an established residential building and a variable to indicate if the property has been purchased as a financed transaction (using a mortgage) or as a non-financed transaction (cash purchase).
14. Repossession sales data is based on the number of transactions lodged with HM Land Registry by lenders exercising their power of sale.
15. For England, we show repossession sales volume recorded by government office region. For Wales, we provide repossession sales volume for the number of repossession sales.
16. Repossession sales data is available from April 2016 in CSV format. Find out more information about repossession sales.
17. We publish CSV files of the raw and cleansed aggregated data every month for England, Scotland and Wales. We publish Northern Ireland data on a quarterly basis. They are available for free use and re-use under the Open Government Licence.
18. HM Land Registry is a government department created in 1862. Its vision is: “to achieve digital services and expertise that unlock a better, faster and less stressful property market.”
19. HM Land Registry’s purpose is: “to secure your property ownership, make buying of land easy and safe for everyone and provide access to property information.”
20. HM Land Registry safeguards land and property ownership valued at £8 trillion, enabling over £1 trillion worth of personal and commercial lending to be secured against property across England and Wales. The Land Register contains more than 26.5 million titles showing evidence of ownership for more than 89% of the land mass of England and Wales.
21. For further information about HM Land Registry visit www.gov.uk/land-registry.
22. Follow us on @HMLandRegistry, our blog, LinkedIn and Facebook.

Euresearch, in collaboration with the European Innovation Council (EIC), will host the EIC Info Day in Switzerland on 4 February 2026 at the Kursaal in Bern. 

With a budget of € 1.4 billion for 2026, the EIC programme offers great opportunities for Swiss-based researchers and innovators to access Europe’s most ambitious funding instruments for scientific and technological breakthrough development, deep-tech innovation, and scale-up financing. 

This full-day event will cover the entire EIC portfolio — from early-stage ground-breaking research to market-ready deep-tech innovation and scale-up support — delivered with insights directly from experts of the European Innovation Council. 

Join us to gain strategic guidance and practical advice, learn from proven success stories and engage in thematic networking sessions. 

The event will be held in English. For agenda and registration please head to the dedicated Euresearch page.