Category: 3. Business

  • Informality and the effects of minimum wage policy in developing countries

    Standard, perfectly competitive models of dual-sector economies predict that wage floors should induce sizeable reallocation from formal to informal employment.
    At the same time, recent evidence suggests that strict segmentation is a poor characterisation of formal versus informal employment and that gradients of informality may be a more accurate description of labour markets (e.g. Meghir et al. 2015, Ulyssea 2018, 2020 and VoxDev Talk here, Haanwinckel and Soares 2021, Feinmann et al. 2024).

    In our new research (Derenoncourt et al. 2025), we show that minimum wage policy can positively affect living standards for workers thought beyond the reach of labour law, with limited reallocation effects towards the informal sector.

    We study large increases in the national minimum wage that occurred in Brazil between 2000 and 2009. These increases moved the country from a regime of low minimum wage bite (a minimum-to-median wage ratio of 0.34) to one of high bite (a minimum-to-median wage ratio of 0.58) in ten years. About 46% of all workers employed in the Brazilian private sector are informal. Within this group of workers, there is substantial heterogeneity in their type of employment: about half of informal workers work in formal firms (intensive margin of informality), while the other half are employed in informal firms (extensive margin of informality). These features of the Brazilian labour market, combined with the availability of rich data capturing formality status, make Brazil an ideal context for analysing the effects of minimum wages on informality.

    The bite of the minimum wage among informal workers

    We start by analysing the monthly earnings distributions for workers in all types of employment. Our sample of interest is comprised of prime-age workers (25 to 54 years old) working full-time. To follow informal workers’ margin of informality in years where this information is not observed, we combine data on industry and the margin of informality available in the labour force survey since 2011 and in the establishment survey (ECINF) conducted in 1997 and 2003. Specifically, we show that working in agriculture, domestic services, and construction is a strong proxy for working in the extensive margin of informality (working at an informal firm), while informal workers in other industries can be reasonably assigned to the intensive margin (working at a formal firm). Doing so allows us to construct a database of informal workers by their margin of informality from 1995 to 2015. We make this database, along with all our other data and programs, available on our websites.   

    We first show that there was a large mass of workers paid at the minimum wage in 1999, before the minimum wage increases. Among informal employees in formal firms, 8.1% of them were paid exactly at the minimum wage, with 7.3% paid strictly below. Among informal employees in informal firms, these respective shares were 10.8% and 23.5%. For comparison, among formal workers, there was almost perfect compliance, with only 0.7% paid strictly below the minimum wage and 12.7% of workers at exactly the minimum wage.

    Why was there such a large mass of informal workers at the minimum wage? First, it may have been due to the relatively high penalties associated with violating labour laws. In 1999, the penalty associated with paying below the minimum wage was larger than the penalty associated with not registering informal workers and evading social security contributions. Second, the minimum wage could serve as an important benchmark for ‘fair’ remuneration – a phenomenon that could also explain the spike at the minimum wage among informal employees in informal firms (Maloney and Mendez 2004). Third, competitive mechanisms might have been at play. This hypothesis is consistent with the fact that informal employees working in formal firms at the minimum wage resemble formal workers in terms of their observable characteristics.

    Interestingly, we show that the monthly earnings distributions of formal workers and informal workers in formal firms strongly track the minimum wage throughout the period of large increases in the 2000s – therefore upending the notion that the formal and informal sectors operate in different, segmented labour markets.

    Figure 1 Monthly earnings distributions in the informal sector before the minimum wage increases

    a) Informal employees: Intensive margin

    b) Informal employees: Extensive margin

    The wage effects of the minimum wage

    To quantify the magnitude of the wage effect among formal employees, we use a difference-in-differences design exploiting variation in the bite of the reform across states and industries. We measure the bite of the reform for the formal sector as the fraction of formal employees paid at or below the 2009 minimum wage in 1999, across 279 state and industry cells defined pre-reform. We find that a one standard deviation increase in the share of affected workers is associated with a 13.2 log point increase in average monthly wages (see Figure 2a).

    Using a similar research design, we find large and immediate wage increases among informal employees working in formal firms (see Figure 2b). These effects are concentrated at the level of the minimum wage for formal and informal employees in formal firms, with no impacts higher in the wage distribution.

    We find an immediate and substantial passthrough of the minimum wage of 0.88 for informal workers working in formal firms – meaning, for the same increase in the share of affected workers as in the formal sector, wages increase by 88% of the increase in the formal sector.

    For informal workers employed in informal firms, the passthrough is smaller (59%), and takes several years to materialise. We do not find any evidence of passthrough to the self-employed.

    Interestingly, because the magnitude of the wage effects are similar within ~280 state-by-industry cells and ~6,500+ microregion-by-industry cells, we conclude that this suggests that the spillover effects of the minimum wage to the informal sector happen within finer local labour markets.

    Figure 2 Wage effects of the minimum wage in 2009

    a) For formal employees

    b) For informal employees in formal firms

    The effects of the minimum wage on the allocation of employment

    In a setting of a low- or middle-income country, the potential for minimum wages to benefit workers and reduce poverty hinges not only on the policy’s effect on wages, but also on its effects on formalisation, specifically the reallocation of employment away from the formal sector.

    Using a linear probability model, we estimate an own-wage reallocation elasticity of -0.28 in 2009 – that is, for a 10% increase in average wages as a result of the policy, there is a 2.8 percent shift into other modes of employment out of the formal salaried sector. We think of this elasticity as ‘small’ – if we follow Dube’s (2019) benchmark used to make sense of the more extensively studied ‘own-wage employment elasticities’ in high-income countries.

    Finally, we ask: what would have been the formal share in the economy in the absence of the 2000s minimum wage increases? Calculations based on simple assumptions motivated by our findings (no overall disemployment effects, shifts out of the formal labour force absorbed by informal salaried employment, and no general equilibrium effects of the minimum wage), we find that the formal share would have been 64.3% in 2009 instead of the actual share of 62.1% (see Figure 3). Absent the minimum wage increases, the formalisation process would have sped up by one year for the entire private workforce of salaried workers.

    Figure 3 Evolution of the formal versus informal sector, and counterfactual shares

    Conclusion

    Our findings raise the possibility that the minimum wage may be an effective tool to improve living standards for workers in developing economies typically considered beyond the reach of labour law. They also shed light on the historical record of other countries such as the US, which experienced strong increases in its minimum wage in the 1950s and 1960s while formalising and whose GDP per capita then was comparable to that of Brazil in the 2000s. Our results also have implications for the study of non-compliance in high-income countries today (Clemens 2021, Clemens and Strain 2022, Stansbury 2024).

    Authors’ note: For more about economic research on the informal sector, see the VoxDevLit on informality; for more on minimum wages, see the various columns on VoxDev.

    References

    Clemens, J (2021), “How Do Firms Respond to Minimum Wage Increases? Understanding the Relevance of Non-employment Margins”, Journal of Economic Perspectives 35(1): 51-72.

    Clemens, J and M Strain (2022), “Understanding “Wage Theft”: Evasion and Avoidance Responses to Minimum Wage Increases”, Labour Economics 79.

    Derenoncourt, E, F Gerard, L Lagos and C Montialoux (2025), “Minimum Wages and Informality”, NBER Working Paper No. 34445.

    Feinmann, J, M Lauletta and R H Roch (2024), “Payments Under the Table: Employer-employee collusion in Brazil”, Working Paper.

    Fields, G S (1990), “Labor Market Modelling and the Urban Informal Sector: Theory and Evidence”, in D Turnham, B Salome and A Schwarz (eds), The Informal Sector Revisited, OECD.

    La Porta, R and A Shleifer (2014), “Informality and Development”, Journal of Economic Perspectives 28(3): 109–26.

    Haanwinckel, D and R R Soares (2021), “Workforce Composition, Productivity, and Labour Regulations in a Compensating Differentials Theory of Informality”, The Review of Economic Studies 88(6): 2970–3010.

    Meghir, C, R Narita and J-M Robin (2015), “Wages and Informality in Developing Countries”, American Economic Review 105(4): 1509–1546.

    Peattie, L (1987), “An Idea in Good Currency and How It Grew: The Informal Sector”, World Development 15(7): 851–860.

    Portes, R and R Schauffler (1993), “Competing Perspective on the Latin American Informal Sector”, Population and Development Review 19(1): 33–59.

    Stansbury, A (2024), “Incentives to Comply with the Minimum Wage in the US and UK”, ILR Review.

    Tokman, V E (1992), Beyond Regulation, The Informal Economy in Latin America, Lynne Rienner Publishers.

    Turnham, D and D Erocal (1990), “Unemployment in Developing Countries, New Light on an Old Problem”, OECD Development Centre Working Paper.

    Ulyssea, G (2018), “Firms, Informality, and Development: Theory and Evidence from Brazil”, American Economic Review 108(8): 2015–2047.

    Ulyssea, G (2020), “Informality: Causes and Consequences for Development”, Annual Review of Economics 12(1): 525–545.

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  • UK spending half an hour longer online than in pandemic, says Ofcom

    UK spending half an hour longer online than in pandemic, says Ofcom

    Laura CressTechnology reporter

    Getty Images Smiling woman using smartphone in bed at nightGetty Images

    UK adults spent over half an hour longer online every day in 2025 than they did during the pandemic, according to an annual survey of internet habits by the regulator Ofcom.

    The Online Nation report found on average, people in the UK spent four hours and 30 minutes online every day in 2025 – 31 minutes longer than in 2021.

    Psychologist Dr Aric Sigman told the BBC this was not a problem in itself, but what mattered was “what this time is displacing and how this may harm mental health”.

    He added the “good news” was society was “beginning to question online time more critically”.

    In a year where the major UK Netflix drama Adolescence won praise and politicial attention for shining a light on misogynistic online content, the survey found adults were feeling less positive about the impact of the internet overall.

    Only a third (33%) said they felt it was “good for society” – down from 40% in 2024.

    However, nearly two thirds of people still believed the benefits of being online outweighed the risks.

    And many adults said they found the internet to be a source of creativity, with roughly three quarters agreeing being online helped them to broaden their understanding of the world.

    Children wary of ‘brain rot’

    The report also explored children’s experiences of being online.

    While more than eight in ten aged 8-17 said they were happy with the amount of time they spent on the internet, they also recognised there were negative impacts of endlessly scrolling on smartphones.

    The term “brain rot” was used by some children surveyed to describe the feeling they were left with after spending too long on their devices.

    It has become a popular phrase to describe overconsuming online posts and videos considered to be the opposite of mentally challenging.

    And Ofcom found across four of the main services used by children – YouTube, Snapchat, TikTok and WhatsApp – up to a quarter of the time 8 to 14-year-olds spent online was between 2100 and 0500.

    VPN use more than doubles

    From 25 July, Ofcom required websites operating in the UK with pornographic content to “robustly” age-check users, under the Online Safety Act.

    Some people began using a virtual private network (VPN) at this time – tools which can disguise your location online to allow you to use the internet as though you are in another country.

    The increase indicates people are likely using them to bypass requirements of the Act.

    After the age checks became mandatory, the survey said VPN use more than doubled, rising from roughly 650,000 daily users before July and peaking at over 1.4 million in mid-August

    But it also found the number had since declined to around 900,000 in November.

    ASMR ‘relaxing’

    The report also found 69% of children aged 13 to 17 said they used online services to help with their wellbeing, either to relax or improve their mood.

    More than half named ASMR as a tool they had used in particular to help them relax.

    These videos became an online phenomenon more than a decade ago – which some people claim causes them to feel a tingling sensation.

    It has led to an entire industry of online creators making special content viewed on platforms such as YouTube.

    But children were not solely positive about their online experiences.

    Seventy percent said they had issues with self-improvement media – involving toxic messaging or body shaming.

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  • Stonepeak’s Infrastructure Debt Note Begins Trading on the ASX

    Stonepeak’s Infrastructure Debt Note Begins Trading on the ASX

    Stonepeak-Plus INFRA1 Note has commenced trading on the ASX under the ticker code “SPPHA”

    Provides investors access to high-quality infrastructure debt

    NEW YORK & SYDNEY – December 9, 2025 – Stonepeak (“Stonepeak”), a leading global alternative investment firm specializing in infrastructure and real assets, today announced that the Stonepeak-Plus INFRA1 Note (the “Note”), an unsecured, deferrable, redeemable floating rate debt security has commenced trading on the Australian Securities Exchange (“ASX”) under the ticker code “SPPHA”.

    The Stonepeak-Plus INFRA1 Note provides Australian investors with access to regular monthly income generated primarily through a curated portfolio of high-quality infrastructure debt assets. This successful listing follows the strong initial demand Stonepeak received for the Note offering, which surpassed the A$300 million target in cornerstone commitments.

    Debt investments for the Note will be sourced predominately from critical infrastructure assets in the transportation and logistics, energy and energy transition, communication and digital, and social infrastructure sectors in Australia, New Zealand, and other markets. The interest rate applicable to Stonepeak-Plus INFRA1 Notes is a benchmark rate of BBSW (1 month) + a margin of 3.25% per annum which accrues on a monthly basis, and the Note will have a target repayment date six years after the issue date.

    “Today marks an exciting milestone for Stonepeak, as our first Australian listed note begins trading on the ASX. We’re proud to be broadening access to infrastructure debt given the benefits it can have for investors’ portfolios as an asset class that favors downside protection and risk-adjusted returns. We are excited to celebrate this important moment, and look forward to bringing a high-quality portfolio of infrastructure debt assets to our investors,” said Andrew Robertson, Senior Managing Director and Head of Australia and New Zealand Private Credit at Stonepeak.

    “The launch of Stonepeak-Plus INFRA1 on the ASX builds on our success in infrastructure credit and is a testament to the talent of our global Stonepeak Credit team. We will continue to look for ways to deliver resilient, income-generating solutions for investors through compelling opportunities in the credit space, and create more equitable opportunities for investors to access the asset class,” said Stonepeak Co-President Jack Howell.

    Today, Stonepeak Credit comprises nearly 30 investment professionals, counts more than 85 investments in its portfolio, and manages approximately A$2.9 billion in assets. Notably, this year Stonepeak completed the acquisition of Boundary Street Capital, a leading specialist private credit investment manager focused on the digital infrastructure, enterprise infrastructure software, and technology services sectors in the lower middle market. The launch of the Note also reflects the continued growth of Stonepeak+, Stonepeak’s dedicated wealth solutions platform.

    E&P Capital, Westpac, Morgans, FIIG Securities, MST, and Shaw and Partners are serving as financial advisers to Stonepeak, with Corrs Chambers Westgarth acting as legal adviser.

    About Stonepeak Credit
    Stonepeak Credit is the credit investing arm of Stonepeak, a leading alternative investment firm specializing in infrastructure and real assets with approximately A$121.1 billion (USD$80 billion) of assets under management. Stonepeak Credit targets credit investments across the transportation and logistics, energy and energy transition, digital infrastructure, and social infrastructure sectors that provide essential services with downside protection, high barriers to entry and visible, recurring revenue generation. It seeks to provide capital solutions that are flexible across the capital structure while generating cash yield through majority senior secured credit investments.

    Stonepeak is headquartered in New York with offices in Houston, Washington, D.C., London, Hong Kong, Seoul, Singapore, Sydney, Tokyo, Abu Dhabi, and Riyadh. For more information, please visit www.stonepeak.com.

    Contacts

    Kate Beers / Maya Brounstein
    corporatecomms@stonepeak.com
    +1 (646) 540-5225

    Jack Gordon
    jack.gordon@sodali.com
    +61 478 060 362

    Important Notices

    Stonepeak-Plus Infra Debt Limited (ACN 692 150 253) (Issuer) is the issuer of the unsecured, deferrable, redeemable, floating rate notes known as the Stonepeak-Plus INFRA1 Notes (Notes) which are quoted on the ASX. The Notes are redeemable by the Issuer and interest is deferrable by the Issuer in certain cases. Unless otherwise specified, any information contained in this material is current as at the date of publication and has been prepared by the Issuer.

    The offer of Notes was made by a prospectus (Prospectus) which is available, along with a target market determination (TMD), at https://stonepeakplus.com.au/, which sets out important information about the Notes, including the related investment risks.

    The Issuer appointed EQT Australia Pty Ltd (ACN 111 042 132) (Authorised Intermediary) as authorised intermediary to make offers to arrange for the issue of Notes under the Prospectus, pursuant to section 911A(2)(b) of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). The Authorised Intermediary is an Australian financial services representative (number 1262369) of Equity Trustees Limited (ACN 004 031 298; AFSL 240975). Stonepeak-Plus Infra Debt Management Pty Ltd (ACN 691 462 067, authorised representative no. 001318081) (Manager) provides investment management and other services to the Issuer.

    The Issuer is not licensed to provide financial product advice in relation to the Notes. The information provided is intended to be general in nature only. This material has been prepared without taking into account any person’s objectives, financial situation or needs.  Any person receiving the information in this material should consider the appropriateness of the information, in light of their own objectives, financial situation or needs before acting.

    Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Investments in the Notes are subject to investment risk, including possible delays in payment and loss of interest or principal invested. The Notes and their performance are not guaranteed by any member of the Stonepeak Group or any other person. The Notes are not bank deposits.

    The material has not been independently verified.  No reliance may be placed for any purpose on the material or its accuracy, fairness, correctness or completeness.  To the fullest extent permitted by law, the Issuer, the Manager, the Authorised Intermediary or any other member of the Stonepeak Group and their respective associates and employees shall have no liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this material or otherwise in connection with the information.

    The above AUM is as of June 2025 inclusive of subsequent committed capital. Certain of these investments have signed but are pending close, and there can be no assurance they will close or that if they close that it will be on the terms currently agreed. The AUM, employee and investment information relates to Stonepeak Group, and not the Issuer.

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  • Musk’s Neuralink taps FDA regulator who led division overseeing the start-up

    Musk’s Neuralink taps FDA regulator who led division overseeing the start-up

    Dec 9 (Reuters) – Elon Musk’s brain implant company Neuralink has tapped a top U.S. health regulator responsible for overseeing the company and its competitors, according to a company announcement.

    U.S. FDA executive David McMullen will lead Neuralink’s medical affairs division, according to the company’s website, a prominent appointment that calls into question the Trump administration’s promise to end the revolving door of government regulators moving into the private sector.

    Sign up here.

    McMullen most recently served as director at the Food and Drug Administration’s Office of Neurological and Physical Medicine Devices, which is responsible for the total lifecycle review of devices such as Neuralink’s brain implant.

    The move places a top government official inside Musk’s orbit after the billionaire led a government cost-cutting enterprise earlier this year that forced out regulators overseeing Neuralink and other medical device companies. The FDA ended up asking some of those scientists to return.

    McMullen holds longtime ties to executives at Neuralink. He previously worked at a neuroscience lab at Duke University along with researchers who went on to the senior ranks at the company.

    “This role combines scientific rigor, direct patient impact, and the chance to move the entire field of BCI (brain-computer interfaces) forward,” McMullen said in a statement.

    Neuralink said in September that 12 people worldwide with severe paralysis have received its brain implants and were using them to control digital and physical tools through thought.

    Neuralink began human trials in 2024 on its brain implant after addressing safety concerns raised by the FDA, which had initially rejected its application in 2022.

    The company earlier faced scrutiny from U.S. regulators over its animal testing program. Neuralink employees previously told Reuters that the company was killing more animals than necessary, including monkeys and pigs, because it was rushing and botching experiments due to time pressures from Musk.

    Reporting by Rachael Levy in Washington; Additional reporting by Mariam Sunny in Bengaluru; Editing by Caroline Humer and Lincoln Feast.

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

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  • US FDA approves first drug under new fast-track review program – Reuters

    1. US FDA approves first drug under new fast-track review program  Reuters
    2. Whither the FDA’s Commissioner’s National Priority Voucher?  The American Action Forum
    3. FDA Grants First Approval Under Priority Voucher Program, Fast-Tracking Antibiotic to Strengthen US Drug Supply Chain  Contagion Live
    4. What MFN Pricing Means for Future Drug Development  Pharmaceutical Commerce
    5. CNPV Limits May Not Slow Collaboration or Commercialization  Pharmaceutical Commerce

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  • Standard Chartered is finally slashing its bitcoin target by half. Here’s why.

    Standard Chartered is finally slashing its bitcoin target by half. Here’s why.

    By Frances Yue

    Bitcoin on Tuesday was trading 26% below its October record high.

    As bitcoin edged higher Tuesday, Standard Chartered said it now expects the cryptocurrency to end the year higher at $100,000. That’s still a halving of its previous year-end target of $200,000, which was issued in June 2024.

    The bank also halved its bitcoin forecast for year-end 2026 to $150,000, from $300,000, and lowered its year-end projections through 2029. But it still expects bitcoin (BTCUSD) can reach $500,000 in 2030, according to a Tuesday note by Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital-assets research at Standard Chartered.

    Until recently, Standard Chartered was one of the only major banks acting as a custodian of cryptocurrencies for its institutional clients. Unlike stocks, price targets for bitcoin can be few and far between on the Wall Street.

    The downward revisions also come as bitcoin has been treading water for the past few days and was trading slightly above $93,000 on Tuesday, almost 26% off its record high of $126,273 reached on Oct. 6. “Price action has forced us to recalibrate our bitcoin price forecasts,” Kendrick wrote.

    Of note, Kendrick also said: “We think buying by bitcoin digital-asset-treasury companies (DATs) is likely over.”

    Digital-asset-treasury companies are businesses that have adopted a strategy of piling up their balance sheets with crypto – even if historically many of these companies had little or nothing to do with crypto. A fear in markets has been that if these companies start selling crypto, one of the year’s most popular trades could implode.

    Earlier this week, Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MST), the largest and highest-profile bitcoin-treasury company, defied expectations that it may face difficulties in fundraising by disclosing it had purchased roughly another $1 billion worth of bitcoin last week, its biggest single acquisition since July.

    Strategy has been trading below the value of its bitcoin holdings since November, reversing the steep premium it once enjoyed, according to data provider BitcoinTreasuries.net. As of Tuesday, its shares traded at an 11% discount compared with a premium that reached as high as 700% in 2020.

    Read: GameStop’s bitcoin holdings – and sales – slide

    Buying from both digital-asset-treasury companies and bitcoin exchange-traded funds has been one of the main forces driving bitcoin’s price since 2024, according to Kendrick.

    But one leg of that demand appears to be weakening. Like Strategy, many other crypto-treasury companies have seen their share prices fall below the value of the crypto assets they hold. That makes additional buying harder to justify and less financially supported as they struggle to raise new financing, according to Kendrick. As a result, he expects buying from this group to stall.

    Read: Many crypto-treasury companies are trading for less than what their digital assets are worth. Is this a bargain or a big red flag?

    The chart below shows that the aggregate market net asset value of bitcoin-treasury companies – or the aggregate market capitalization of such companies divided by the value of bitcoin they held – has fallen sharply from earlier this year.

    Still, Kendrick noted that it remains unlikely Strategy will sell any of its bitcoin.

    For smaller digital-asset-treasury companies, Kendrick said the most probable outcome is stabilization rather than selling. These firms are more likely to pause or maintain their current holdings rather than unwind them, he added.

    Looking ahead, Kendrick expects bitcoin’s price action to be driven mostly by ETF flows. He expected to see continued ETF inflows over the next several years, supported by broader institutional adoption of bitcoin.

    However, near-term flows have been mixed. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust IBIT, the largest bitcoin ETF, has logged six consecutive weeks of outflows as of last week – its longest streak of weekly outflows since its debut in January 2024, according to data from CFRA Research. It has still accumulated $25.4 billion in net inflows year to date.

    -Frances Yue

    This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

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    12-09-25 1814ET

    Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

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  • The Consumer Goods Forum’s Human Rights Coalition Shares Member Progress in Tackling Forced Labour

    The Consumer Goods Forum’s Human Rights Coalition Shares Member Progress in Tackling Forced Labour


    • Report from The Consumer Goods Forum’s Human Rights Coalition shows advancements made by individual companies using CGF’s framework to strengthen approaches to tackle forced labour.
    • The public results show members have individually put in place strong governance, clear policies, structured risk assessments and mitigation plans – demonstrating that action accelerates when effective frameworks, tools and peer learning are in place. 
    • The publication also provides practical member case studies and highlights areas where more work is needed.

    Paris, 10 December 2025, The Consumer Goods Forum (CGF)’s Human Rights Coalition (HRC) has today published a report on the progress of its members’ human rights due diligence systems, focused on preventing forced labour in their operations. The publication is part of the Coalition’s commitment to transparently shine a light on steps taken and important challenges ahead.

    Explore the findings and access the full report

    The HRC is a collective of brands, manufacturers and retailers voluntarily working together in line with competition rules to ensure that human rights are protected and respected across the entire length of international value chains. The Coalition’s members, who act individually and independently in their business operations, represent an estimated $1.7 trillion in combined annual revenue and supply chains that reach millions of suppliers and workers worldwide.

    The report, published five years after the Coalition was first formed and coinciding with the UN’s Human Rights Day, shows that members have individually put in place strong governance, clear policies, structured risk assessments and mitigation plans that integrate worker input; 91% of member companies have now reached maturity through their own individual efforts.

    At the heart of the report is the full CGF ‘Maturity Journey Framework for Human Rights Due Diligence (HRDD) Systems Focused on Forced Labour in Own Operations’. A six-step pathway for companies to individually evaluate and strengthen their individual due diligence systems. The framework offers companies an option for a  transparent self-assessment to understand their own progress and identify what comes next:

    John Ross, CEO of IGA and a CGF board member and Coalition sponsor, said:

    “This report underscores a simple truth: tackling forced labour starts with strong governance, clear expectations, and leaders willing to hold their own organisations accountable. By making this assessment public, the Human Rights Coalition shows how important it is to keep due diligence front and centre.”

    HRC Co-Chairs, Virginie Mahin, Senior Director Global Social Sustainability & Stakeholder Engagement, Mondelēz International and Rachel Elliott, General Manager Sustainability – Human Rights, Woolworths Group, and outgoing Co-Chair Jessica Rivas, Director, Climate and Nature Sourcing Transformation, McDonald’s Corporation, said: 

    “We’re proud to see that 91% of Coalition members have reached maturity in embedding due diligence in their operations. Our recommended Framework is an effective way for the wide consumer goods industry to approach human rights due diligence and ensure we’re all delivering best practices for people.”

    The report contains a range of practical examples illustrating how member companies are applying due diligence best practices, including: 

    • APP Group launching a full due diligence process including training over 5000 employees and managers; 
    • Danone connecting assessment action and monitoring through an integrated governance system; 
    • Ferrero operationalising a new forced labour prevention policy; 
    • Jerónimo Martins embedding Human and Labour Rights Through Training, Audits and Worker Integration
    • Mondelēz International expanding risk assessment across its operations; 
    • McDonald’s updating its Human Rights Policy, Supplier Code of Conduct and supporting guidance;
    • Neste extending access to grievance mechanisms for third-party workers;
    • Unilever evaluating the impact of fee remediation on migrant workers in Malaysia and Thailand.

    While marking important headway, the report also points to significant steps that remain. For example, remedy systems – designed to correct harm and restore the rights of impacted workers – are being developed and rolled out by many companies but have not yet reached the scale required by the size of the challenge. Structured assessment practices allow companies to collect data, but consistency still needs to be strengthened. Companies are individually, tracking and monitoring outcomes of their programs, but have yet to embed a feedback cycle that feeds directly into company decision making.

    Wai-Chan Chan, Managing Director of The Consumer Goods Forum, said:

    “I’m proud that the Human Rights Coalition members have individually strengthened governance, clarified responsibilities and taken steps to identify and act on risk, following collaborative action through the Coalition. I look forward to seeing how the wider consumer goods sector can pick up these recommended best practices, supporting not only workers across the globe, but also helping deliver against strategic business priorities and meet key company commitments.”

    The members of the Human Rights Coalition are: Ahold Delhaize, APP Group, The Coca Cola Company, Colgate-Palmolive, Danone, Ferrero, Flora Food Group, Haleon, Heineken, IGA, Jerónimo Martins, L’Oréal, The Lindt & Sprüngli Group, Lipton Teas & Infusions, Mars, Inc., McDonald’s Corporation, Mondelēz International, Neste, Nestlé, PepsiCo, Tesco Unilever, Walmart and Woolworths Group.

    Explore the findings and access the full report

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  • Cracker Barrel’s logo retreat fails to spark restaurant sales boost

    Cracker Barrel’s logo retreat fails to spark restaurant sales boost

    Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free

    Cracker Barrel, a US old-fashioned restaurant chain, cut its sales outlook for its fiscal year as it continues to recover from a social media controversy over an attempt to modernise its logo.

    The company, whose restaurants are known for serving Southern-style comfort food, reported sales fell more than expected in its most recent quarter, sending its shares down about 10 per cent in after-hours trading on Tuesday.

    “First-quarter results were below our expectations amid unique and ongoing headwinds,” chief executive Julie Masino said. “We have adjusted our operational initiatives, menu and marketing to ensure we are consistently delivering delicious food and exceptional experiences.”

    Cracker Barrel in August changed its “Old Timer” logo that featured an elderly man leaning against a wooden barrel as a way to modernise the brand and attract new customers. But the shift ignited a social media backlash that prompted accusations that the company was engaging in “woke” rebranding.

    US President Donald Trump weighed in, saying in a Truth Social post that the restaurant chain should go back to the old logo and “admit a mistake”.

    Management quickly reverted to the old logo but the controversy has stuck: sales continue to fall and the company’s share price is down by about half this year.

    Activist investor Sardar Biglari launched a proxy campaign this year urging shareholders to vote against the re-election of Masino, alleging that her tenure had been marked with “highly publicised mis-steps”. The chief executive retained her role following a November vote.

    Cracker Barrel’s fortunes have diverged from those of American Eagle Outfitters. The apparel retailer’s ads over summer featuring actor Sydney Sweeney dragged it into the “culture wars” but it was defended by Trump. Last week, the company boosted its outlook, helped in part by the success of its marketing campaign featuring the starlet.

    The absence of a “Trump bump” in sales has left Cracker Barrel exposed to the sort of challenges facing other American restaurant chains, as cash-strapped consumers skip dining out amid high prices and concerns about job security. Chipotle lowered its sales forecasts for the third time this year as it noted that the chain lost diners to grocery stores.

    Cracker Barrel cut its full-year outlook and now expects annual revenue to be between $3.2bn and $3.3bn, compared to previous guidance of $3.35bn to $3.45bn: management told analysts they expect weaker customer traffic and a higher level of discounting. It also downgraded its forecast for adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation to between $70mn and $110mn, lopping $80mn off each end of its earlier projection.

    The outlook downgrade accompanied the group reporting a 5.7 per cent drop in revenue to $797.2mn in the three months that ended October 31, owing to a fall in traffic. That missed Wall Street’s expectations for revenue of $801mn.

    It swung to a first-quarter net loss of $24.6mn, weighed down by items including impairments related to store closures and company restructuring costs.

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  • Markets anxious over Japan’s risk of ’negative spiral,’ top bank MUFG exec says

    Markets anxious over Japan’s risk of ’negative spiral,’ top bank MUFG exec says

    TOKYO, Dec 10 (Reuters) – Markets are increasingly worried about Japan’s “tail risk” of slipping into a negative spiral, where monetary tightening lags inflation and a weak yen pushes prices higher, the markets chief at top lender Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306.T), opens new tab said.

    Markets have priced in a 90% chance of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan this month, shifting attention to how the central bank signals its longer-term policy path.

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    MUFG is among top Japanese players in the foreign exchange market and the largest owner of Japanese government bonds among major banks.

    “If the BOJ fails to anchor expectations for further rate hikes beyond the next and the government boosts spending to appease voters frustrated with inflation, the yen could weaken further,” Hiroyuki Seki, the head of MUFG’s Global Markets Business Group, told Reuters in an interview.

    “That could re-accelerate import costs, creating a negative spiral of inflation and currency depreciation,” he said.

    Despite narrowing interest rate differentials with the United States, the yen has remained weak around 155 per dollar, partly reflecting market expectations that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s reflationary stance could limit further BOJ tightening.

    Seki stressed that eliminating Japan’s extremely low real interest rates was essential.

    “The BOJ needs to move early and steadily toward monetary normalization to preempt a vicious cycle where insufficient tightening allows yen depreciation to push inflation even higher,” he said.

    Beyond the potential December hike, Seki expects the BOJ to follow a gradual normalization path, raising rates by 25 basis points roughly every six months, provided economic and price trends evolve in line with the central bank’s projections.

    The so-called terminal rate – the level at which the tightening cycle is expected to end – is projected at 1.25%-1.5% by mid-2027, though risks are skewed higher if inflation proves sticky, he said.

    The BOJ has released estimates suggesting Japan’s nominal neutral interest rate – one that neither cools nor overheats the economy – lies somewhere between 1% and 2.5%.

    On MUFG’s Japanese government bond strategy, Seki said the bank has been cautiously rebuilding positions since the benchmark 10-year yield rose above 1.65%.

    “If the yield exceeds 2%, we plan to accelerate the pace of rebuilding, mainly on 10-year bonds, in line with higher interest rates,” he said. MUFG has substantial capacity for purchases given its currently restrained risk exposure, he added.

    Reporting by Makiko Yamazaki, Miho Uranaka and Tomo Uetake; Additional reporting by Takaya Yamaguchi
    Editing by Tomasz Janowski

    Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles., opens new tab

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  • UK’s higher borrowing costs compared with major countries ‘may be coming to an end’ | Government borrowing

    UK’s higher borrowing costs compared with major countries ‘may be coming to an end’ | Government borrowing

    The “premium” that the UK pays to borrow money compared with its international peers may be coming to an end as markets grow more confident about the government’s plans, a thinktank has suggested.

    The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) said that the chancellor Rachel Reeves’s announcement in the autumn budget that she would be more than doubling the UK’s financial headroom by 2030 from £9.9bn to £22bn had begun to assure bond markets about Labour’s fiscal approach.

    Government bond yields – which is the return paid on government debt – have been increasing around the world in recent years, as a result of higher inflation, rising interest rates and countries running bigger deficits.

    However, UK’s gilt yields have been higher than its peers, including the US and the eurozone, largely because the economy suffers from a “credibility problem” over whether its fiscal policies will be achieved, according to IPPR, a left-leaning thinktank.

    UK yields have risen by 0.4 to 0.8 percentage points more than major peers since Labour won the 2024 election, the IPPR said, costing taxpayers up to £7bn a year. The government has spent £92bn on interest payments so far for this financial year, it said.

    Bond yield graphic

    The higher cost of borrowing for the UK comes despite the fundamentals of its economy being stronger than countries with lower borrowing costs. The UK’s debt-to-GDP ratio is 101%, compared with 122% in the US and 237% in Japan, and the government is planning to halve the amount it borrows each year by the end of this parliament.

    The problem is that bond traders think the UK is not good at keeping to its fiscal policies, the IPPR said. The mini-budget in 2022 under the Liz Truss administration “showed how quickly a UK government could bypass the fiscal framework”, the thinktank said. It added that in the years leading up to this event, successive chancellors had “repeatedly changed, missed or redefined their own fiscal rules” or changed themselves, with seven different chancellors from 2016 up to the 2024 election. A “lack of trust in stated fiscal policy has set in, as actions have spoken louder than words,” it said.

    However, the autumn budget prompted the UK premium against the eurozone to almost halve. William Ellis, a senior economist at IPPR, said: “The premium on UK borrowing costs appears to be easing, showing that markets are responding to growing confidence in the government’s fiscal approach. Sticking to its fiscal plans could save the exchequer billions and free up fiscal space in the future.”

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    IPPR said another way to lower borrowing costs would be for the Bank of England to pause its sale of government bonds after “selling them at a record pace”.

    Carsten Jung, the associate director for economic policy at IPPR, said: “The Bank of England needs to pull its weight. Actively selling government bonds is adding unnecessary pressure to the gilt market. It should stop – just as every other major central bank has.”

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