Category: 3. Business

KARACHI:

The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) staged a strong rebound on Friday as it surged nearly 1,300 points, led by investor interest in attractive stocks of fertiliser, bank, technology and energy sectors.

The benchmark KSE-100 index rose to the record high of 169,865 following a two-day breather, but it fell short of the 170k milestone at the close of trading. The market reached 170,053 in intra-day trading, however, it again could not hold the level and dropped just before the end of the session.

Earlier, at the commencement of trading, the index immediately dipped to the intra-day low of 168,422 and thereafter it made a gradual recovery by erasing all the losses. At close, the KSE-100 index recorded an increase of 1,289.83 points, or 0.77%, to settle at 169,864.53.

According to analysts, on a week-on-week basis, the index gained 1.66%, which could be attributed to the approval of $1.2 billion in loans by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the power-sector debt settlement of Rs659.6 billion.

In its daily review, Topline Securities said that the KSE-100 index rebounded on Friday as it largely traded in the positive zone and closed at 169,865 (up 0.77%). Top positive contribution to the index came from Fauji Fertiliser Company, MCB Bank, Systems Limited, Maple Leaf Cement, Pakistan Petroleum, Engro Fertilisers and Hubco as they cumulatively contributed 962 points.

Traded value-wise, Nishat Mills (Rs3 billion), Pakistan Petroleum (Rs2.17 billion), Sui Southern Gas Company (Rs1.28 billion), Maple Leaf Cement (Rs1.25 billion), Meezan Bank (Rs1.24 billion), Fauji Fertiliser Company (Rs1.2 billion) and OGDC (Rs1.16 billion) dominated the activity, Topline said.

In its weekly report, the brokerage house said that the KSE-100 gained 1.66% week-on-week. “This gain can be attributed to news that the IMF board approved a $1.2 billion loan by granting waivers for missing a few core conditions, and the landmark Rs659.6 billion power-sector debt settlement.”

Mubashir Anis Naviwala of JS Global said that the PSX rebounded strongly as the KSE-100 index surged 1,290 points to close at 169,865.

The market opened soft but quickly recovered with a steady upward momentum. It touched the intra-day high at 170,053, showing strong buying interest, he said.

Overall volumes remained healthy at 873 million shares as optimism returned after Thursday’s pullback, lifting major sectors. Buyers remained dominant throughout the session, driving sustained strength. “The near-term outlook stays positive as the market attempts another break above 170k,” he added.

Overall trading volumes stood at 873 million shares compared to the previous tally of 1.3 billion. The value of traded shares stood at Rs40.9 billion.

On the ready market, shares of 482 companies were traded. Of these, 259 closed higher, 180 dipped and 43 remained unchanged.

Hum Network was the volume leader with trading in 71.8 million shares, rising Rs0.23 to close at Rs14.88. It was followed by Dost Steels with 47 million shares, gaining Rs0.22 to close at Rs8.14 and WorldCall Telecom with 40.8 million shares, up Rs0.04 to close at Rs1.83.

Foreign investors were net sellers of shares worth Rs547.5 million, the National Clearing Company reported.

So what has caused the price of cocoa and milk to shoot up?

Extreme weather caused by climate change has hit cocoa farmers’ crop yields in Africa, says Ghadafi Razak, an academic at Warwick Business School.

Extreme rainfall in India, Brazil and Thailand in 2023, followed by droughts the following year have meant poor harvests in those countries too, pushing up prices.

The extra costs take time to feed through to customers, says Christian Jaccarini, a senior food analyst at the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit think tank, which means those extra costs are hitting shop shelves now.

“It takes about 18 months for the impact of a shock to be felt by consumers, so we still have quite a long time with higher prices for chocolate,” he said.

Milk prices have shot up too. Diarmaid Mac Colgáin, founder of the Concept Dairy consultancy blames the rising cost of feed, fuel and fertilisers as well as farmers facing higher wage bills and production costs.

He says some brands have substituted palm oil and shea oil for some of the milk to make up the fat content of their chocolate.

KARACHI:

Pakistan’s Sensitive Price Index (SPI) for the week ended December 11, 2025, registered a year-on-year increase of 3.90%, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures on essential commodities despite a marginal weekly decline of 0.03%, according to the latest data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

The combined SPI, based on 2015-16=100 and tracking 51 essential items across 50 markets in 17 cities, stood at 335.73 points, down from 335.84 points the previous week. This slight easing offers tentative relief to households grappling with elevated costs, particularly in urban centres where food and energy prices dominate expenditure baskets. However, the YoY uptick underscores broader economic challenges, including supply chain disruptions and fiscal adjustments, with sugar and gas charges emerging as key drivers.

Week-on-week, prices of 12 items (23.53%) rose, 10 (19.61%) fell, and 29 (56.86%) remained stable. The sharpest declines were in tomatoes (-16.18%), sugar (-4.91%), onions (-4.08%), and potatoes (-1.71%), alleviating some food bill burdens for lower-income groups. Conversely, chicken surged 6.19% amid seasonal demand, followed by wheat flour (2.88%) and eggs (0.93%), signalling volatility in protein and staple categories. Cooking oil (5 litres) and vegetable ghee (2.5 kg) edged up 0.72% and 0.70%, respectively, while tea prepared and powdered milk saw modest gains of 0.56% and 0.39%.

On a YoY basis, the 3.90% rise was fuelled by sugar (30.28%), gas charges for Q1 (29.85%), wheat flour (21.59%), and gur (14.96%), highlighting sustained hikes in sweeteners and utilities. Beef climbed 13.42%, firewood 12.86%, and diesel 8.42%, exacerbating transport and heating costs. Positive offsets included potatoes (-42.59%), tomatoes (-40.75%), garlic (-37.46%), and onions (-30.23%), with pulse gram dropping 28.95% due to improved harvests.

Disparities across consumption quintiles paint a nuanced picture: the lowest-income group (Q1, up to Rs17,732 monthly) faced a steeper YoY decline of 0.26% but a milder YoY rise of 3.01%, compared to Q5 (above Rs44,175), which saw a 0.02% WoW gain and 3.47% YoY increase. Overall, Q3 posted the highest YoY at 4.08%, underscoring regressive impacts on middle-class budgets.

Historical trends reveal moderation: the combined SPI has eased from a 4.00% YoY in early December to 3.90%, down from peaks above 5% in October. Quarterly data for Q4 2025-26 shows Q1 SPI at 317.38, up 5.68% QoQ but only 2.08% YoY, suggesting stabilising rural-urban dynamics.

Economists view the dip as a welcome breather, potentially signalling harvest gluts in perishables, but warn of upside risks from global commodity volatility and impending energy tariff revisions.

KARACHI:

The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is expected to retain interest rates at 11% on Monday, a Reuters poll showed, as analysts push back rate-cut forecasts to late 2026 after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned inflation risks persist and policy must stay “appropriately tight”.

All 12 analysts surveyed expect no cut in the policy meeting on Monday. A majority of them see inflation hovering at 6%-8% in the coming months before rising again towards the end of fiscal 2026 as base effects fade and food and transport prices stay volatile after flood-related supply disruptions.

Most respondents now believe the central bank will not begin easing until the closing months of FY26, which ends in June 2026, with some analysts pushing forecasts for the first cut into fiscal year 2027, beginning July 2026.

The IMF, in a second review released on Thursday, said monetary policy needs to remain “appropriately tight and data-dependent” to keep expectations anchored and noted that the SBP had maintained positive real interest rates on a forward-looking basis.

It said the tight stance had been pivotal in reducing inflation and should be maintained to ensure price stability and support the rebuilding of external buffers.

Analysts said these risks, along with the SBP’s preference for maintaining positive real interest rates, would keep policymakers cautious.

The SBP has held its policy rate at 11% since September, after cutting it by 1,100 basis points between June 2024 and May 2025 as inflation fell sharply from highs near 40% in 2023.

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The Republican chair of the US House of Representatives’ China committee has questioned the information on which the White House based its recent decision to allow Nvidia to export advanced chips to China.

John Moolenaar, the Michigan Republican who heads the influential China panel, cast doubt on arguments that China’s most advanced chips, which are manufactured by Huawei, rivalled those of Nvidia.

President Donald Trump this week said he would allow Nvidia to sell the H200 — its second most powerful chip — to China despite concerns from some US security officials that it would propel Chinese advances in artificial intelligence that would help accelerate its military’s modernisation.

Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang has argued Huawei has made such progress in developing chips that it makes no sense to restrain the US company from competing in China.

But critics say Nvidia is overstating the progress that Huawei has made as part of a lobbying campaign.

“Huawei has sought to end-run US technology controls by linking ever-greater numbers of less-capable chips together to achieve individual service output comparable to Nvidia’s results,” Moolenaar wrote in a letter to commerce secretary Howard Lutnick obtained by the Financial Times.

Moolenaar noted Huawei had argued that its flagship chip — the 910C — was a “genuine competitor” to Nvidia and some in the US have relied on that claim to justify exporting advanced chips to China in an effort to make Beijing more reliant on the American AI “tech stack”.

The Michigan lawmaker said Huawei was “less willing to acknowledge” that the 910C was manufactured in Taiwan by TSMC, something that is now prohibited after the commerce department determined it had violated American export controls.

Moolenaar said Huawei’s next design chip — the 910D — would have to be manufactured in China and had less advanced capabilities than the 910C.

“Given China’s relentless indigenisation drive, the fact that the 910D is a step backward in capability represents a tacit admission that China’s domestic fabs, without the benefit of illegal production abroad, are not yet able to replicate the 910C’s sophistication at scale,” he wrote.

Moolenaar also cited reports that DeepSeek, the Chinese AI champion, was having to rely on smuggled Nvidia chips to continue training its AI models.

“Approving the sale of cutting-edge chips to Chinese companies risks undercutting the extraordinary strategic advantage that President Trump achieved in his first term,” he said.

Moolenaar added that allowing China to buy millions of chips that were more advanced than its indigenous versions would undermine Trump’s efforts to ensure that the US maintained its dominance in the AI industry.

He also requested a briefing from Lutnick about the analysis used to justify allowing Nvidia to export the H200 to China.

A bipartisan group of six senators, including Republican Pete Ricketts and Democrat Chris Coons, have introduced a bill that would bar the US from providing H200 export licences for 30 months. Its co-sponsors include Republicans Tom Cotton and Dave McCormick.

Mark Warner, the Democratic vice-chair of the Senate intelligence committee, on Friday told the Defense Writers Group that “it was a mistake” to allow Nvidia to export the H200 chips to China.

Several people familiar with the debate in Congress said Republicans were very frustrated with the decision but were reluctant to criticise the move because they were nervous about a backlash from Trump.

Asked about the letter, Nvidia said critics had made similar arguments about the H20, a less-capable chip that the company developed for the Chinese market, which it dismissed as being “backwards”. Trump banned Nvidia from selling the H20 before later reversing course.

“Before the ban, selling H20 kept foreign competition at bay,” Nvidia said. “After H20 shipments were blocked, foreign AI chip firms stepped into the gap and grew dramatically — so much that when we were allowed to resume H20 shipments, we had no takers.”

The company added that critics of the administration and foreign competitors were trying to exclude US industry from a commercial business that “should provide America tens of billions of dollars and thousands of real jobs”.