Category: 3. Business

  • Media Buying Briefing: Overheard at DPMS — How agencies grapple with AI in programmatic

    Media Buying Briefing: Overheard at DPMS — How agencies grapple with AI in programmatic

    It can sometimes be a fine line between a promise and a threat — but that’s where generative AI stands in its application to the media agency world today. At least that’s the biggest takeaway from a Town Hall discussion at last week’s Programmatic Marketing Summit, held in New Orleans as the last of Digiday’s events for the year 2025. 

    Held under Chatham House rules, which provide anonymity and the freedom to speak freely for the media agency people attending, the Town Hall conversation highlighted the confusion and complexity surrounding the intersection of programmatic advertising and agentic AI. 

    There were differing opinions over to what extent AI and agentic technologies are already part of programmatic workflows (and there seemed to be no consensus definition for what qualifies as agentic). What the agency executives did seem to agree on, though, was that AI agents are best kept away from the actual point of transaction between media buyers and sellers. 

    Instead they should be relegated to pre- and post-transaction tasks, like helping to plan campaign parameters and to organize post-campaign performance data. But even that level of AI involvement will require enhanced training of agency employees not just on AI tools (and their limitations) but also on the fundamentals of programmatic advertising workflows for the human employees to better supervise their AI counterparts.

    The following has been edited for space and clarity.

    Setting the stage

    “I think we all know that machine learning AI … from a buying standpoint is already very integrated. But I think what is new is the gen AI, right? And that’s what’s exciting. The agent idea, and this idea of ideation creating autonomy is where it’s evolving. But I don’t think we all know what we’re talking about, just because it is already integrated within buying across Meta, Google, etc. But from a gen AI aspect, I think that’s what’s really exciting. Where we’ve seen efficiencies in terms of our AI that we’re using is helping with media mix models planning. That really helps with efficiencies, as well as automation in general, in terms of administrative tasks, analytics, and aggregating data.”

    AI used as a smoke screen

    “Every agency has some level of machine learning being used in their algorithms and optimizations. We’re not afraid of that, but it isn’t very transparent by nature. One of the challenges we face in this industry is now we’re being fed AI as a cover for more opaqueness in pricing, more opaqueness in performance optimizations. Whether it’s [The Trade Desk’s] Kokai’s new algorithms all trying to do stuff for you and saying ‘Just trust us.’ That, I think scares us, because we know it’s not LLMs, but we also know they’re using it as a smoke screen, and we’re not all equipped to poke holes in their theories and push back. I think that might be where a lot of the fear is, because we just see more opaqueness and us having less and less control.”

    “We have not gotten there yet, but one of the things that we’re working on on our agency is, how do we use the agentic AI to help us explain what AI is doing in our campaigns? But how do we get it to explain stuff? Because if a person makes an optimization, you can say, Why did you make that optimization? What do you think it was going to do? And what did it do? AI doesn’t do that — it just makes the optimization and has a result or doesn’t have a result.”

    Careful with that agent, Eugene

    “Agents are built for fetching and gathering. That’s what they do good. They don’t think. You just asked why — they don’t do that. They’re all probabilistic anyway. Technically agents are [Las] Vegas on all the things you’re looking to track, and it tries to get to a better result based on what it’s seen in the past. So if you’re doing something new right now with the agent, don’t do that. They’re not really good at that yet, because they’re working on odds. I feel like we’re probably three or four years away from trusting any of these things.”

    “AI can be really good for things with defined parameters. But as an industry, we’re kind of lumping in a lot of AI together. For, say, a programmatic media plan, it’s going to potentially hallucinate because things like outdated information aren’t being taken down from the web, and it’s taking that into consideration. If you just let it to its own devices, you’re not going to get best results. But if you use a very clean data set to find parameters of how things should be evaluated, I think it can be very beneficial.”

    What’s to come? 

    “From the strategist side, some of the programmatic partners actually have tools that will build your whole media plan, right? But what I haven’t seen is the integration being there. I think their dream of it is, click the one button that builds the plan for you and optimizes the plan. I don’t think that’s upon us yet, but I think that’s what may be coming for us.”

    “All of us are being told that’s what people want — let’s do that. But then you have legal compliance, and your finance team. All it takes is for the AI to hallucinate one zero, and you’re in big trouble. And that’s one mistake that’s going to cost you potentially a client, or could cost you your job. Because LLMs will never NOT hallucinate — their underlying architecture design has that flaw. I don’t know how many trillions of dollars have been invested in this, but they haven’t fixed this problem. They’re like a very smart intern — we’re going to give it information. It’s going to be able to do a lot of tasks that are menial and take a lot of time, and do it fast. But before we do action, we’re going to put it through some of the older models, or sometimes trust the older models to do the actual heavy lifting, because they have experience. We know they work, and we know they can work and they can do it better.”

    “You were saying smart intern — it’s a six year old. Think of it as your six year old child who will give you an answer whether it’s right or not, because they want to prove to you that they think what you said is important. That’s AI right now. It’ll be different later, but right now, it’s a six year old.”

    “We’re using AI in pre- and in post-production. Your whole planning team is pre-production. Your analytics team is post production, giving reports back. That is a lot of the day to day job, so that can save us a ton of time. The actual production part is actually a small percentage of our time. We set up the campaign, we run it, the optimizations come from post analytics, and then we go and make the changes. A lot of the lead up is a lot of time that AI can save us.”

    Accountability

    “Accountability comes with management not allowing people to use, ‘Well, that’s what the AI gave me’ as an excuse. They have to be accountable to their work no matter how it’s been generated. And I think that’s how we have to move forward. Because if we allow everyone to use that as an excuse, that we’re going tons of errors.”

    “My concern is on [the 25-year-old media planner’s] over-reliance on AI for doing a lot of these things. Is that going to impact overall foundational knowledge that allows them to make these strategic decisions creatively and out of the box? Because they’ve been brought up [thinking] ‘Well, I can just do all of these things by throwing it in here.’ They don’t understand the why behind it, and then it snowballs 20 years from now.”

    How to train your AI

    “How would you train the AI better? The best way I can describe it is, it’s like good barbecue — low and slow. Use older data that’s very specific. It probably comes in slower than what you’re getting from signal-based data, or real-time data and all the rest of that. Not necessarily because it’s better, but because it has less garbage in it.”

    Color by numbers

    Does the need to market as aggressively as possible during the holidays offer an opportunity for retail media networks and challenger social platforms to capture more holiday and 2026 ad dollars? The answer is yes — if they can close the measurement and trust gap, according to new research from Kantar. Some supporting stats: 

    • Retailers see building in-store/omnichannel capabilities (82%) and off-site data monetization (45%) as key ways to compete with Amazon. 
    • 87% of brands would be more likely to trust and invest in retail media networks accredited for standardized measurement, but only 24% of retailers are fully aligned with such standards. 
    • 67% of brands are ready to invest more if in-store impact can be proved. 
    • 80% of brands say unified in-store/online measurement is essential or important.  

    Takeoff & landing

    • The closure of Omnicom’s acquisition of Interpublic Group resulted into the planned layoffs of about 4,000 staffers, leading to a wave of publicly aired bitter feelings over social media. It also resulted in the shuttering of IPG’s Magna media investment and business intelligence unit, along with the departure of Eileen Kiernan, the highest ranking media executive in IPG’s fold. 
    • Havas made two different acquisitions last week: U.K. experiential agency Bearded Kitten, which will be folded into Havas Play, and, earlier in the week Unnest, a French data consulting and engineering firm, to support Havas Media Network’s tech and data abilities. It declined to identify purchase prices for either. 
    • Personnel moves: Dentsu named Kara Osborne Gladwell its global product architect officer for Media, and brought back Tia Castagno to become Global Innovation President. Both are newly created global positions and report to Will Swayne, global practice president, Media … Monks hired Thiago Correa to be svp of media for the EMEA region, coming from Publicis where was global client lead for H&M  … Creator marketing agency Influencer hired Ryan Fitzpatrick as CFO, coming over from a similar post at VaynerX.

    Direct quote

    “This merger is a reminder that scale doesn’t fix fragmentation. AI only works when the underlying customer data is unified, governed, and understood. The organizations that win in the next phase of marketing won’t be the ones with the most tools — they’ll be the ones with the clearest picture of their customers.”

    —Tony Owens, CEO of customer data cloud Amperity, on Omnicom’s acquisition of IPG. 

    Speed reading

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  • MHIET U.S. Subsidiary’s Franklin Plant Celebrates 10th Anniversary– Cumulative production of 6.5 million automotive turbochargers —

    MHIET U.S. Subsidiary’s Franklin Plant Celebrates 10th Anniversary– Cumulative production of 6.5 million automotive turbochargers —

    Tokyo, December 08, 2025 – Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Engine & Turbocharger, Ltd. (MHIET), a part of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) Group, held a ceremony on November 7 to commemorate the 10th anniversary of the opening of the Franklin, Indiana (USA) plant of Mitsubishi Turbocharger and Engine America, Inc. (MTEA), headquartered in Itasca, Illinois, MHIET’s production base for automotive turbochargers in the United States. The Franklin plant has manufactured a cumulative total of 6.5 million turbochargers over the last 10 years, and expects to reach 10 million units by 2030.

    The commemorative ceremony was attended by Franklin Mayor Steve Barnett and other city officials, as well as Kenji Mori, General Manager of MHIET’s Turbo Division, and other company executives. Mayor Barnett said, “MHIET’s commitment to excellence, teamwork and respect reflects the best of the Japanese culture that has truly left their mark in Franklin.”

    The demand for turbocharger is expected to remain strong, owing to the current proactive development of gasoline-fueled turbo engines in North America. With automobile manufacturers, who are the main customers for these devices, increasingly demanding shorter timeframes for development and delivery, the Franklin plant has established a mass production system that can respond flexibly while maintaining high quality.

    Specifically, the plant produces turbochargers on automated assembly lines, with quality rigorously controlled by an advanced traceability system. The factory adheres strictly to the “5S” workplace organization method (Sort, Straighten, Shine, Standardize, Sustain). In addition, the plant is located close to engine assembly plants of its main customers.

    This production system and nearby location allow the plant to quickly and steadily supply high-quality turbochargers, which is highly regarded by customers. In 2024, MTEA received the “Supplier of the Year” award from U.S. automaker General Motors (GM) for the third time. The company has also received the “Excellence in Quality and Delivery” award from American Honda Motor multiple times.

    At the same time, reflecting the rise of protectionism and intensifying trade friction, customers are increasingly requesting compliance with the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement). The Franklin plant meets the Labor Value Content (LVC) requirement of the USMCA Rules of Origin. MTEA is also taking steps to develop and build a supply chain in North America to meet the Regional Value Content (RVC) requirements of the USMCA Rules of Origin.

    Going forward, MHIET will continue production of high-quality turbochargers at the Franklin plant and maintain a flexible supply system, while aiming to bolster its supply chain and expand its North American operations.

     

    ■Overview of MTEA

    Mitsubishi Turbocharger and Engine America, Inc.

    【Head office Address】

    Two Pierce Place, 11th Floor, Itasca, IL 60143, U.S.A.

    1200 North Mitsubishi Parkway, Franklin, IN 46131, U.S.A.

    【Main lines of business】

    Sales of industrial engines, production and sales of turbochargers, service and parts supply for both products

    • 【Milestones】
      April 1985 Mitsubishi Engine North America, Inc. (MENA) established and started operations as a sales and service base for engines and turbochargers in North America
      April 2010 Established a sales and design office in Michigan, USA
      May 2015 Opened Franklin plant in the U.S. and started production of turbochargers
      June 2016 Corporate name changed from MENA to Mitsubishi Turbocharger and Engine America, Inc. (MTEA)
      April 2022 Cumulative turbocharger production reaches 5 million units

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  • Public companies account for 62% of Chin Hin Group Property Berhad’s (KLSE:CHGP) ownership, while individual investors account for 22%

    Public companies account for 62% of Chin Hin Group Property Berhad’s (KLSE:CHGP) ownership, while individual investors account for 22%

    Trump has pledged to “unleash” American oil and gas and these 15 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit.

    To get a sense of who is truly in control of Chin Hin Group Property Berhad (KLSE:CHGP), it is important to understand the ownership structure of the business. The group holding the most number of shares in the company, around 62% to be precise, is public companies. Put another way, the group faces the maximum upside potential (or downside risk).

    Individual investors, on the other hand, account for 22% of the company’s stockholders.

    Let’s delve deeper into each type of owner of Chin Hin Group Property Berhad, beginning with the chart below.

    View our latest analysis for Chin Hin Group Property Berhad

    KLSE:CHGP Ownership Breakdown December 8th 2025

    Small companies that are not very actively traded often lack institutional investors, but it’s less common to see large companies without them.

    There are many reasons why a company might not have any institutions on the share registry. It may be hard for institutions to buy large amounts of shares, if liquidity (the amount of shares traded each day) is low. If the company has not needed to raise capital, institutions might lack the opportunity to build a position. Alternatively, there might be something about the company that has kept institutional investors away. Chin Hin Group Property Berhad’s earnings and revenue track record (below) may not be compelling to institutional investors — or they simply might not have looked at the business closely.

    earnings-and-revenue-growth
    KLSE:CHGP Earnings and Revenue Growth December 8th 2025

    We note that hedge funds don’t have a meaningful investment in Chin Hin Group Property Berhad. Chin Hin Group Berhad is currently the company’s largest shareholder with 62% of shares outstanding. With such a huge stake in the ownership, we infer that they have significant control of the future of the company. With 2.5% and 2.4% of the shares outstanding respectively, Kumpulan Wang Bersama and Human Resources Development Fund are the second and third largest shareholders.

    While it makes sense to study institutional ownership data for a company, it also makes sense to study analyst sentiments to know which way the wind is blowing. We’re not picking up on any analyst coverage of the stock at the moment, so the company is unlikely to be widely held.

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  • Baidu Shares Rise as It Assesses Chip Unit Spinoff

    Baidu Shares Rise as It Assesses Chip Unit Spinoff

    By Tracy Qu

    Baidu shares rose after the company said it is considering spinning off its AI chip unit.

    The Beijing-based company is assessing a possible spinoff and listing for Kunlunxin (Beijing) Technology, according to a filing with the Hong Kong bourse on Sunday.

    Baidu said the proposed spinoff and listing will be subject to regulatory approval processes and added that there is no assurance that the spinoff and listing will proceed. The news was first reported by Reuters on Friday.

    The stock rose 4% to HK$126.40, equivalent to US$16.24, in morning trade on Monday, after climbing 5% on Friday. Baidu's gains outperformed the Hang Seng Tech Index, which was recently 0.1% lower.

    The news comes as a number of Chinese chip companies have pursued domestic listings amid Beijing's push to end reliance on foreign technology.

    Moore Threads, a domestic graphics processing unit designer, began trading in Shanghai last week. Its shares surged more than fivefold on Friday. Meanwhile, chip company MetaX plans to raise the equivalent of more than $550 million in Shanghai.

    Baidu, once China's dominant internet search engine provider, has sought new growth drivers beyond its core business in recent years. The company has been investing in artificial intelligence, chip design, as well as autonomous-driving technologies.

    Write to Tracy Qu at tracy.qu@wsj.com

    (END) Dow Jones Newswires

    December 07, 2025 23:05 ET (04:05 GMT)

    Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

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  • China’s Weak Currency Is Powering Its Exports, Drawing Criticism – The New York Times

    1. China’s Weak Currency Is Powering Its Exports, Drawing Criticism  The New York Times
    2. Exclusive: China state-owned banks soak up dollars to slow yuan gains, sources say  Reuters
    3. USD/CNH put fly  FXStreet
    4. China Central Bank sets lowest RMB reference rate since 2022  chinaeconomicreview.com
    5. Why China needs to let the renminbi rise  Hoover Institution

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  • Stocks, bonds cautiously hopeful for Fed rate relief – Reuters

    1. Stocks, bonds cautiously hopeful for Fed rate relief  Reuters
    2. The Week That Was, The Week Ahead: Macro & Markets, Dec. 7  TipRanks
    3. Sentiment improving, but watch for political risk  bangkokpost.com
    4. The Stock Market Keeps Shrugging Off Every Obstacle  Inc.com
    5. Market Calm Settles In as Wall Street Awaits Fed Decision  TradeAlgo

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  • China's November exports top expectations, imports underperform – Reuters

    1. China’s November exports top expectations, imports underperform  Reuters
    2. China’s exports rebound in November, massively beating expectations after U.S. trade truce  CNBC
    3. US tariffs prompt surge in Chinese exports to south-east Asia  Financial Times
    4. China Exports Rise More than Expected  TradingView
    5. China Shakes Off Tariff Scare to Stick With Export-Driven Growth  Bloomberg.com

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  • Asian Stocks Edge Higher at the Start of Fed Week: Markets Wrap

    Asian Stocks Edge Higher at the Start of Fed Week: Markets Wrap

    (Bloomberg) — Stocks in Asia edged higher on Monday as traders prepared to navigate a heavy slate of central bank decisions this week, including one where the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates.

    MSCI Inc.’s gauge of Asian equities rose 0.2%, with technology being the biggest contributor to gains. US stock index futures were up slightly while a gauge of the dollar edged lower. Japan’s economy shrank in the three months through September, the government confirmed in a revised report on Monday, while signs emerged over the weekend that the nation’s relations with China were deteriorating.

    With traders already having priced in a 25-basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week, a lack of fresh catalysts has seen markets move in tight ranges in recent days. A gauge of global equities has continued to hover near an all-time high reached in October as investor caution over the durability of this year’s AI-driven rally persists.

    “The FOMC meeting will be the headline risk event,” Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group, wrote in a note. “A 25 basis-point cut is fully priced and viewed as a done deal, but the real debate centers on what a ‘hawkish cut’ looks like and whether the statement and Powell’s press conference aligns to that well-subscribed outcome.”

    Japan’s gross domestic product fell at an annualized pace of 2.3% in the third quarter, as revised figures showed business spending and housing investment came in weaker than preliminary figures. The contraction was deeper than the initial reading of a 1.8% fall, and was the first in six quarters.

    The data added an element of complexity to the Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy decision next week, but likely won’t derail it from its gradual hiking path.

    Meanwhile, central banks spanning Australia to Brazil and the Philippines to Turkey will be announcing rate decisions this week, just as renewed inflation pressures prompt a reassessment of 2026’s monetary outlook.

    What Bloomberg’s Strategists Say…

    “Global bonds are set to extend their retreat as revived cost pressures push central banks to become more hawkish. JGBs face another pair of nervy auctions with the BOJ priced to hike rates next week. Even the Fed’s expected rate cut is likely to be offset by a hawkish statement.”

    —Garfield Reynolds, MLIV Asia Team Leader. Click here for the full analysis.

    Defense Stocks

    Beijing and Tokyo traded complaints against each other as their simmering diplomatic spat intensified over the weekend after Chinese fighter aircraft trained their fire-control radar systems on Japanese military jets for the first time.

    Defense stocks in Japan and China rose on Monday.

    China’s CSI 300 Index extended its gain to more than 1% after exports for November rose 5.9% in dollar terms, exceeding estimates and giving investors an insight into the health of the economy and the impact from modest US tariff relief.

    Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron warned that the European Union may be forced to take “strong measures” against China, including potential tariffs, if Beijing fails to address its widening trade imbalance with the bloc.

    In commodities, silver wavered near a record and gold rose as China’s central bank added to its bullion reserves for a 13th straight month in November. Oil steadied as traders monitored India’s buying of Russian crude and Ukrainian attacks on its neighbor’s energy infrastructure.

    ‘Ripping Through’

    On Friday, the S&P 500 Index rose 0.2% to inch closer to a record high as a dated reading of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge met expectations. Treasuries declined, pushing the 10-year yield up four basis points to 4.14% and closing out their worst week since April, after conflicting economic data cast fresh uncertainty on the scale of potential Fed rate cuts next year.

    Treasury yields may extend their rise, possibly toward 4.5%, on the back of an impending fiscal boost from President Donald Trump’s earlier spending bills, strong growth and “the broader reflationary momentum now ripping through global long-end bond yields,” Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG Markets in Sydney, wrote in a note. “While we think this is likely more of a story for 2026, a rise of this magnitude could impact equities if it unfolds rapidly.”

    Read: Bond Traders Defy Fed and Spark Heated Debate on Wall Street

    This week’s auctions of three-, 10- and 30-year government debt are slated to begin Monday, a day earlier than usual to avoid coinciding with the Dec. 10 Fed announcements. Australia is set to reopen a bond line maturing in 2054 just as the 10-year yield hits the highest since Nov. 2023.

    The US continues to clear the data backlog with the delayed JOLTS reports scheduled for release. Weekly jobless claims and the employment cost index are also due. Besides the Fed rate decision, economists expect the Bank of Canada, Swiss National Bank and Reserve Bank of Australia will leave their respective policy rates on hold this week.

    While the Fed is likely to cut on Wednesday, “the rate path for 2026 is more uncertain as members balance lingering price pressures from tariffs, a cooling labor market, the likely pick-up in economic activity in the coming months,” Barclays strategists including Andrea Kiguel wrote in a note to clients. “We think 2026 is likely to be a year of prolonged holds, though markets could try to add hike premiums if inflation momentum persists.”

    Meanwhile, Wall Street research veteran Ed Yardeni is recommending going underweight the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks versus the rest of the S&P 500, expecting a shift in earnings growth ahead.

    Corporate News

    US President Donald Trump raised potential antitrust concerns around Netflix Inc.’s planned $72 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery Inc., noting that the market share of the combined entity may pose problems. US lawmakers released annual defense authorization legislation that backs almost $901 billion in discretionary spending for national security programs and seeks to restrict American investments in sensitive Chinese industries. Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. and Singapore’s GIC Pte agreed to a binding deal with National Storage REIT to buy the Sydney-listed firm for around A$4 billion ($2.7 billion). Qatar Airways Group named Hamad Ali Al‑Khater as its new group chief executive officer in a surprise shakeup, succeeding Badr Mohammed Al-Meer after just two years in the post. An outage that took down markets operated by CME Group Inc. for more than 10 hours at the end of last week was caused by human error at a data center owned by CyrusOne. Indian regulators held IndiGo’s chief executive accountable for the severe disruptions that have roiled the country’s biggest airline in recent days, faulting the company for “significant lapses in planning, oversight, and resource management.” Eli Lilly & Co., Pfizer Inc. and Johnson & Johnson secured spots on China’s first innovative drug catalog, opening a new market channel and boosting sales prospects for costly, cutting-edge treatments. Some of the main moves in markets:

    Stocks

    S&P 500 futures rose 0.1% as of 12:20 p.m. Tokyo time Japan’s Topix rose 0.4% Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.2% Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.8% The Shanghai Composite rose 0.7% Currencies

    The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1% The euro rose 0.1% to $1.1654 The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 155.01 per dollar The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.0670 per dollar The Australian dollar was little changed at $0.6646 Cryptocurrencies

    Bitcoin rose 1.2% to $91,303.81 Ether rose 0.8% to $3,112.06 Bonds

    The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.13% Japan’s 10-year yield was unchanged at 1.950% Australia’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.71% Commodities

    West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.2% to $60.19 a barrel Spot gold rose 0.3% to $4,211.67 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

    ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.

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  • Wall Street update: US stocks finish higher as inflation fuels rate cut expectations

    Wall Street update: US stocks finish higher as inflation fuels rate cut expectations

    US stocks climb as inflation data strengthens rate cut outlook

    United States (US) stock markets ended the week on a positive note, supported by soft inflation data that reinforced expectations of a rate cut at this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. For the week, the Nasdaq 100 finished 1% higher, the S&P 500 rose by 0.31%, and the Dow Jones gained 238 points (+0.50%).

    Ahead of Thursday’s FOMC meeting, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index – the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred gauge of underlying inflation – rose a tame 0.2% month-on-month (MoM) in September and 2.8% year-on-year (YoY), in line with forecasts. Yet despite the benign print, US Treasury yields rose 4 basis points (bp) across the curve, taking their lead from Canadian bond yields, which gained after a hotter-than-expected jobs report.

    US 10-year yields show strongest weekly rise since April

    This resulted in US 10-year yields finishing the week 12 bp higher, marking their strongest weekly increase since April, to be eyeing the neckline of a potential inverted head-and-shoulders pattern at 4.17 – 4.19%. A clear breakout above this level would open the way for US 10-year yields to rise towards 4.50%.

    While this is likely more of a story for 2026, a rise of this magnitude could impact equities if it unfolds rapidly. Potential catalysts for rising US bond yields include: 

    • The impending fiscal boost from the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’
    • The Fed cutting rates into resilient growth
    • The broader reflationary momentum now rippling through global long-end bond yields.

    Key data release before Thursday’s decision

    Looking ahead, the only notable data release before Thursday’s FOMC decision is Wednesday morning’s October Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report, useful context, but already somewhat stale.

    FOMC interest rate decision

    Date: Thursday, 11 December at 6.00am AEDT

    At the last FOMC meeting in October, the Fed cut rates by 25 bp into a target range of 3.75% – 4.00%.

    It was the central bank’s second consecutive rate reduction and was approved by a 10 – 2 vote. Fed Governor Stephen Miran voted against the decision in favour of lowering rates by 50 bp, while Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid dissented in favour of holding rates steady.

    Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters at the post-meeting news conference that a December cut was not a ‘foregone conclusion’. The minutes of the meeting released on 19 November showed disagreement about the path forward, with the Board divided over whether a stalling labour market or stubborn inflation were bigger economic threats.

    The hawkish minutes resulted in the odds of a 25 bp rate cut at this week’s meeting falling to about 30%. However, since then, dovish Fed commentary and soft tier-two labour market data now sees the interest rates market pricing in an 87% chance of a 25 bp rate cut to 3.50% – 3.75% at this week’s meeting.

    The commentary will likely have a hawkish element, with Fed Chair Powell noting that the bar for further cuts is higher, and he will likely point out the views of participants who opposed a cut.

    Looking ahead, the rates market is pricing in another two full 25 bp rate cuts in 2026, with a 50% probability of a third 25 bp rate cut in 2026.

    Federal funds rate chart

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  • China’s exports in November massively beat expectations on U.S. trade truce

    China’s exports in November massively beat expectations on U.S. trade truce

    A cargo ship loaded with containers departs from Qingdao Port in Qingdao City, Shandong Province, China, on December 4, 2025.

    Costfoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

    China’s exports massively beat market expectations in November as manufacturers rushed to ship out inventory on the back of a trade deal with Washington, following a meeting between the leaders of the world’s top two economies.

    Outbound shipments surged 5.9% in November in U.S. dollar terms from a year earlier, China’s customs data showed Monday, topping economists’ forecast for a 3.8% growth in a Reuters poll. That growth marked a rebound from an unexpected 1.1% drop in October — the first contraction since March 2024.

    Imports growth of 1.9%, however, missed expectations for a 3% rise, as Beijing renewed pledges to expand imports and work toward balancing trade amid widespread criticism against its aggressive exports.

    Imports had grown just 1% in October from a year earlier as a protracted housing downturn and rising job insecurity continued to be drag on domestic consumption.

    Chinese manufacturers breathed a sigh of relief after Chinese leader Xi Jinping and U.S. President reached a deal during their meeting in South Korea in late October, putting on hold a raft of restrictive measures for one year.

    The two sides agreed to roll back steep tariffs on each other’s goods, export controls for critical minerals and advanced technology, with Beijing committing to buying more American soybeans and working with Washington to crack down on fentanyl flows.

    Following the truce, the U.S. levies on Chinese goods remain at around 47.5% according to Peterson Institute for International Economics. Beijing tariffs on imports from the U.S. stand at around 32%

    China’s factory activity shrank for an eighth month in November, an official manufacturing survey showed, with new orders staying in contraction. A private survey focused on exporters showed manufacturing activity unexpectedly fell into contraction.

    Chinese policymakers are expected to meet later this month for the annual Central Economic Work Conference, to discuss economic growth target, budget and policy priorities for next year. The specific targets will not be officially announced until the “Two Sessions” meeting in March next year.

    Beijing is expected to keep the 2026 growth target unchanged at “around 5%,” according to Goldman Sachs, which would require incremental policy easing early next year to ensure a growth acceleration from a likely lackluster reading in the fourth quarter of 2025.

    The Wall Street bank expects Chinese authorities to lift the augmented fiscal deficit ceiling by 1 percentage point of GDP, cut policy rates by a total of 20 basis points and step up stimulus measures to rein in the housing slump.

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    The strengthening yuan in recent weeks has not appeared to stem the flow of China's exports. The offshore yuan has strengthened nearly 5% since April to 7.0669 per dollar at market open on Monday, according to LSEG data.

    Despite a steady 5% annual GDP growth since 2023, China "urgently needs to curb its export dependence and pivot towards domestic consumption to ensure sustainable expansion," Weijian Shan, chief executive of private equity firm PAG, said in an opinion piece last month.

    A stronger yuan could boost consumption's contribution to economic growth to the 2023 level of 86% from currently 53%, as it would lower costs of imports and enhance household purchasing power, Shan added.

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