Category: 3. Business

By Jules Rimmer

With thin liquidity and lots of market players absent, the third quarter can often be accompanied by market turmoil.

Historically, the summer months tend to witness the sharpest spikes in volatility and since the global financial crisis there have been multiple incidents of severe market disruption at this time of year. A note published by Deutsche Bank strategist Henry Allen investigates the possibility of another market shock in 2025.

Examples of previous summer crises, or at least third quarter, are legion: in 2024, the sudden unwind of the yen-carry trade trade triggered a major sell-off around the world and VIX VIX touched 65; in 2022, Fed chair Jerome Powell gave a hawkish speech and the Fed made their third consecutive 75 basis point hike to ward off inflation; 2015’s upheaval was sparked by a 43% slump in China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite CN:SHCOMP and fears of a Greek exit from the eurozone provoked chaos across European bourses; the global financial crisis of 2008 was catalyzed by Lehman’s bankruptcy, and the prequel to this crash was the bank run on Northern Rock and BNP Paribas’ freeze on funds owing to the subprime mortgage emergency in the summer of 2007.

Deutsche Bank’s Allen posted the most likely cause of a calamity this summer.

Chief among them, unsurprisingly, is the threat of trade war escalation. Trump has set another deadline now of Aug. 1 for the imposition of punitive tariffs on trading partners but markets have become accustomed to offers of compromise and worst-case scenarios being averted. This may not necessarily be the case this time given the policy unpredictability.

Allen also identifies the potential for inflation to start trending higher owing to the lagging impact of the tariffs already set. Bond and stock markets are discounting several Fed rate cuts in the second half of 2025 and malign CPI releases could price those out. On the flipside, weak economic data could also upset market sentiment and reawaken recessionary concerns.

Another source of developing tension is the fiscal dilemma facing not just the U.S. but several other G10 governments. Already this year, rising term risk premia – the extra return sought by investors for longer-duration instruments – has forced long bond yields higher in the U.S. BX:TMUBMUSD30Y , Japan BX:TMBMKJP-30Y and the U.K. BX:TMBMKGB-30Y Rising yields provide an immediate transmission mechanism for worries about funding high deficits.

Geopolitics have been a constant preoccupation of markets since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 and their propensity to upset markets has been demonstrated by adverse reactions to conflicts in the Middle East and the sub-continent. Geopolitics are a major source of volatility at present and any number of conflicts threaten to erupt into something calamitous.

While none of the shocks to which markets have been subjected this year has seriously derailed risky assets, this has been in part because of the ability of policymakers to adapt and create an adequate response. Something from left field that can’t be addressed so easily is the unknown, unquantifiable threat.

-Jules Rimmer

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TD set to launch Generative AI pilot designed to save colleagues time and enhance client interactions

TORONTO, July 8, 2025 /CNW/ – Today, TD Bank Group (“TD” or the “Bank”) announced the launch of the TD Securities Artificial Intelligence (AI) Virtual Assistant, a proprietary generative AI-powered chatbot. Initially launching as a pilot, the TDS AI Virtual Assistant is designed to help augment the productivity and effectiveness of TD Securities (“TDS”) Front Office Institutional Sales, Trading, and Research professionals. By streamlining daily tasks, the virtual assistant will help to significantly enhance the value these colleagues can bring to their client interactions.

The TDS AI Virtual Assistant, a type of Knowledge Management System (“KMS”), is an internal chatbot designed to help employees efficiently retrieve, aggregate and synthesize vast amounts of information into concise context-aware summaries and insights to help colleagues to answer client inquiries with increased efficiency and speed.

Using Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG), the virtual assistant searches internal TDS research documents, interpreting, analyzing, and summarizing key points to respond effectively to user prompts. It also employs Text-to-SQL functionality to convert conversational queries into SQL queries, which are then executed against the data repository to gather and synthesize results into summary tables and visual plots as needed to provide timely market information. Once implemented, this virtual assistant is designed to save front office colleagues time, allowing them to focus on strategic client engagement and decision-making.

“We’re excited about the potential that the TDS AI Virtual Assistant brings to the TD Securities team,” said Dan Charney, Executive Vice President, Vice Chair and Head, Global Markets, TD Securities. “This isn’t just another tool—it’s a meaningful step toward the future of how we work, that was built by traders, for traders. In a world that’s moving faster every day, we’re focused on giving our people smarter ways to cut through complexity and stay ahead. By combining human expertise with powerful technology, we’re unlocking new possibilities—for our teams, and ultimately, for our clients.”

Key Features of the TDS AI Virtual Assistant include:

• Productivity Boost: Reduces information overload by automating information gathering and summarization, allowing teams to focus on more strategic analyses and client engagement.
• Capital Markets Native: Understands nuanced industry specific language and context.
• Trust and Reliability: Every insight is returned with direct citations to the source material, allowing for rapid verification by the users.

“The TDS AI Virtual Assistant represents a significant development in our evolution of how we are helping revolutionize experiences for our colleagues and clients by operationalizing new technologies such as GenAI at the Bank,” said Dan Bosman, Senior Vice President and Chief Information Officer, TD Securities & Payments. “We have been methodical in rolling out Knowledge Management Systems across the organization as these platforms are critical in developing capabilities for colleagues and enhancing experiences for customers. The strong collaboration between our technology groups, Layer6 and Enterprise Innovation teams has been instrumental in achieving these important milestones.”

The launch of this virtual assistant is the result of the Bank’s investment in cutting edge research translated into application, driven by multiple teams across the Bank. TD recently announced TD AI Prism, a new AI foundation model, the goal of which is to help redefine how the Bank predicts customer needs to help personalize their banking experiences. TD launched two KMS platforms – in some of its contact centres and in branches – with plans to be live across seven of its businesses by the end of the year. The Bank also completed a large-scale migration of data records into its secure cloud-based platform, helping to give the Bank more speed and flexibility to unlock solutions such as the TDS AI Virtual Assistant.

As the financial sector evolves, TD remains committed to innovation and the responsible use of AI as part of its role as a forward-thinking organization, driving advancements that benefit both the institution and the industry at large. This approach is fostered by the Bank as part of TD Invent, its strategic effort to power innovation. In an era where speed, accuracy, and adaptability are paramount, TD’s approach demonstrates the strategic use of AI in helping to address complex financial challenges.

About TD Bank Group
The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its subsidiaries are collectively known as TD Bank Group (“TD” or the “Bank”). TD is the sixth largest bank in North America by assets and serves over 27.9 million customers in four key businesses operating in a number of locations in financial centres around the globe: Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking, including TD Canada Trust and TD Auto Finance Canada; U.S. Retail, including TD Bank, America’s Most Convenient Bank^®, TD Auto Finance U.S., and TD Wealth (U.S.); Wealth Management and Insurance, including TD Wealth (Canada), TD Direct Investing, and TD Insurance; and Wholesale Banking, including TD Securities and TD Cowen. TD also ranks among the world’s leading online financial services firms, with more than 18 million active online and mobile customers. TD had $2.1 trillion in assets on April 30, 2025. The Toronto-Dominion Bank trades under the symbol “TD” on the Toronto and New York Stock Exchanges. 

SOURCE TD Bank Group

The World Energy Investment (WEI) report is the global benchmark for tracking capital flows across fuels, electricity, critical minerals, finance, and more. Now in its 10th edition, the report provides a detailed update on investment trends in 2024 and an early outlook for 2025, while reflecting on a decade of milestones and lessons.

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