Category: 3. Business

The ongoing pricing standoff, which began two months ago between BHP and China’s state-backed CMRG (China Minerals Resources Group), has added to uncertainty in the iron ore market. The standoff is part of China’s strategic push to exert greater influence over iron ore pricing and to increase the use of the yuan in contract settlements, reducing reliance on the US dollar.

CMRG was created by Beijing three years ago to shift leverage from major iron ore producers toward China, the world’s largest iron ore buyer.

Beijing has recently expanded its embargo on some BHP cargoes, ordering steel mills and traders to stop buying “jingbao fines”, a low-grade of iron ore that represents a small part of the miner’s exports to China. The ban follows an earlier halt on BHP’s “jimblebar fines”, a Pilbara iron ore grade and one of BHP’s most popular export types.

While the dispute is likely a negotiating tactic rather than a structural break, it heightens near-term volatility by disrupting trade flows and undermining confidence in China’s procurement approach. If unresolved, the impasse could drive a rerouting of some trade flows and force BHP to discount cargoes into alternative markets. For now, BHP has kept its full-year 2026 production guidance unchanged at 258-269 million tonnes.

We entered 2025 with a relatively bearish view of the commodities complex, while expecting gold to be the standout. And that was a pretty good call, especially when you look at oil and European natural gas. The oil market has been largely unfazed by geopolitical events and sanction uncertainty, which has seen it trade lower.

A number of agri commodities have also come under pressure, including cocoa, sugar, wheat and corn, on the back of more comfortable supply conditions. That said, wheat and corn have clawed their way back from the lows seen this year, with trade tensions easing between the US and China.

Base metal markets have performed well. While tariffs had been a downward concern, this uncertainty was more than offset by distortions seen in trade flows, with the market concerned about how trade policy will evolve. This has been particularly apparent in the copper market. The broad weakness in the US dollar would have provided further support to the metals complex.

Of course, precious metals have been the standout, with gold repeatedly hitting record highs throughout the year. Uncertainty over trade policy also led to distortions in the gold market. While heightened geopolitical risks, falling real yields, and a weaker USD all proved supportive of gold investment demand, central banks continue to make strong purchases, a trend that has been clear since the freezing of Russian assets following the Russia/Ukraine war.

For 2026, we remain bearish towards energy markets, with the global oil market set to be in large surplus, following OPEC+ rapidly ramping up output as it shifts policy, while demand growth remains modest. There is plenty of uncertainty about Russian oil supply following US sanctions, but as we move through 2026, markets will get a clearer picture of the full impact. For now, we believe the impact will be limited in the medium to long term. However, there is potential for greater volatility, given that OPEC’s spare production capacity has shrunk as the group has increased output.

While there are some short-term upside risks for the European gas market, it’s set to become better supplied, despite the region’s plans to phase out Russian gas and LNG. The start-up of LNG export capacity, particularly from the US, will leave global LNG markets and the European gas market increasingly more comfortable. However, the ramp-up of US LNG exports risks leaving the US gas market tighter.

Developments related to Russia-Ukraine peace talks will also be important to watch in 2026, with any progress towards ending the war likely to put further pressure on energy markets.

Most base metals are likely to remain well supported next year. Uncertainty over US refined copper tariffs will likely continue to see strong refined copper flows to the US, tightening up the ex-US market. And this coincides with a persistently tight copper concentrate market. For aluminium, the market is focused on China approaching its production cap, along with several producers elsewhere considering closures due to high power prices. We believe the aluminium market will be tight in 2026. For nickel, we expect little change amid persistent surpluses, keeping prices under pressure. We expect iron ore to trade lower with Chinese demand still a concern and supply growing, helped by the start of the 120mtpa Simandou mine.

We expect gold prices to remain strong and yet reach new heights. With the Fed set to cut rates and the USD likely to remain under pressure, this should be constructive for investment demand, while central banks are likely to continue adding to their reserves.

While agri commodities have seen some downward pressure this year due to strong supply and trade tensions, we believe the corn, wheat, and soybean markets are set to tighten next season, suggesting the potential for some upside in prices. However, much will depend on US trade policy with China, while for soybeans, US biofuel policy is also important.

The sugar market is set for a large surplus, driven by another strong crop from CS Brazil, while India is poised for a large recovery in output. This should keep sugar prices under pressure. The cocoa market is set for another surplus in 2025/26, suggesting prices are likely to continue trending lower from elevated levels. Finally, we also expect some moderation in the coffee market, with Brazil set to see a strong 2026/27 crop, but there are risks to this view.

Air pollution from petrol and diesel vehicles remains one of Europe’s most harmful public-health threats. Emissions from internal combustion engines are major sources of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). These are pollutants with no safe exposure level, as well as well-established links to heart disease, stroke, lung cancer, asthma, COPD, diabetes, dementia, pregnancy complications, and impaired development in children. Across Europe, air pollution contributes to more than 300,000 premature deaths every year, with the heaviest burden falling on children, older people, those with chronic conditions, and socio-economically disadvantaged communities.

To protect public health, the EU committed to ending the sale of new petrol and diesel cars and vans by 2035. This phase-out is a vital measure to reduce toxic air pollution, strengthen health system resilience, and advance a fairer, cleaner, and healthier Europe. Recent signals from parts of the automotive industry and some Member States suggest that the 2035 commitment may be weakened or delayed.

For this reason, EPHA joins organisations representing over 85,000 health and medical professionals in issuing an open letter urging national governments to stand firm. Rolling back the phase-out would prolong Europe’s dependence on fossil fuels, increase avoidable illness, and undermine citizens’ right to clean air.

Phasing out combustion engines will mean fewer premature deaths, healthier children, reduced healthcare costs, and a more sustainable and competitive European economy. The transition can – and must – be done equitably, minimising negative effects on employment, in cooperation between governments, industry, and citizens.

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Huntsman Cancer Institute at the University of Utah (the U) participated in a clinical trial that found that a new combination treatment plan helped people with recurring grade 3 astrocytoma, an aggressive form of brain cancer, live longer.

Astrocytoma is an extremely challenging diagnosis for both patients and physicians, as the range of treatments and efficacy is limited. It’s incredibly rewarding to be involved in a study like STELLAR, which demonstrated a combination treatment that has a significant benefit and offers incredible potential for patients with this specific diagnosis.”

Howard Colman, MD, PhD, co-leader of the Neurologic Cancers Disease Center at Huntsman Cancer Institute, Jon M. Huntsman Presidential Professor in the Department of Neurosurgery at the U, and primary investigator of the STELLAR trial

The Phase 3 trial from Orbus Therapeutics evaluated the efficacy and safety of a treatment plan using a combination of the drug eflornithine, a compound that targets an enzyme to inhibit the proliferation of tumor cells, and the oral chemotherapy lomustine, which is used to treat a variety of brain cancers.

The international trial enrolled 343 patients from 74 hospitals and clinics in North America and Europe, including Huntsman Cancer Institute. All patients had to have previously received radiation and chemotherapy, as well as had recurrence of the disease after treatment.

The study initially enrolled patients who had a type of brain tumor called anaplastic astrocytoma. But as medical definitions changed, the study ended up including three types of brain tumors: glioblastoma, grade 3 IDH-mutant astrocytoma, and grade 4 IDH-mutant astrocytoma.

Astrocytomas are primary brain tumors that can form in the brain or spine. IDH, a gene that mutates and is thought to drive the conversion of normal cells in the brain into tumor cells, is the most common driver of astrocytoma tumors. Glioblastoma is a different type of astrocytoma that is more aggressive and does not involve mutations in the IDH gene.

In the STELLAR trial, the experimental group of patients received oral eflornithine in combination with lomustine. The other half, the control group, received lomustine alone.

Among all patients, the study found no difference in overall survival rates between the control and experimental group. There was also no benefit of eflornithine for patients with grade 4 IDH-mutant astrocytomas or glioblastoma.

But for patients with grade 3 IDH-mutant astrocytoma, the new treatment helped them live much longer-about 35 months compared to 24 months with the standard treatment.

Colman and his team also considered the progression-free survival rates of each group, which measure how long it takes for a patient’s disease to worsen after starting treatment. For patients with grade 4 IDH-mutant astrocytoma or glioblastoma, there was no significant improvement. But, as in overall survival rates, patients with grade 3 IDH-mutant astrocytoma on the combination therapy fared better. Patients taking lomustine alone had a median progression-free survival rate of 7.2 months. In patients taking the combination therapy of lomustine and eflornithine, the median was more than twice as long, at 15.8 months.

“This is a groundbreaking development. Advances in treating brain tumors are critical to overcoming this difficult diagnosis for Huntsman Cancer Institute’s patients and patients throughout the country,” says Neli Ulrich, PhD, MS, chief scientific officer and executive director of the Comprehensive Cancer Center at Huntsman Cancer Institute and Jon M. and Karen Huntsman Presidential Professor in Cancer Research in the Department of Population Health Sciences at the U. “With every breakthrough in the treatment of astrocytoma, we move closer to transforming uncertainty into hope. Through federally funded cancer research and strong public–private partnerships, we are accelerating scientific discovery and bringing new, powerful treatments to the patients who need them most.”

This clinical trial is supported by the National Institutes of Health/National Cancer Institute, including cancer center support grant P30 CA042014, as well as Huntsman Cancer Foundation.

The results of the study were published in the Journal of Clinical Oncology.

Bitcoin grinds higher

Bitcoin (BTC) has started December under pressure, reflecting renewed risk-off sentiment and broad market weakness.

​On 1 December, the cryptocurrency plunged to as low as roughly $84,000.00, a steep drop that analysts attribute to a wave of liquidations across crypto markets, thinning liquidity, and falling risk appetite among investors.

​In the days following that sell-off, Bitcoin rebounded moderately, recovering past $94,000.00, before slipping back towards the $88,000.00 region where it found support.

​Some market watchers view this stabilisation as evidence that near-term fear may be easing and that interest in high-quality crypto assets could be resurfacing.

​Nevertheless, the outlook remains fragile and conflicted. The early December sell-off wiped out much of Bitcoin’s earlier gains: what had been a rally peaking near record highs has given way to renewed uncertainty.

​With institutional demand softening in November and spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows mounting – including record withdrawals from major funds – liquidity stress and investor re-evaluation of risk are weighing heavily on BTC’s near-term prospects.

​Beyond price moves, recent institutional dynamics have added nuance to the market picture.

​One of the largest corporate holders of Bitcoin, Strategy, which amassed hundreds of thousands of BTC in prior years, has now indicated it may liquidate part of its holdings.

​The company’s shift away from its long-time “buy and hold” posture has raised concern among market participants who wonder whether more heavy sellers could emerge if Bitcoin’s value does not recover.

​At the same time, some argue that the ongoing dip in BTC presents a potential entry point for long-term investors, provided macroeconomic conditions – particularly interest-rate expectations and liquidity in traditional markets – do not deteriorate further.

​In sum, the past few weeks have seen Bitcoin swing between sharp declines and tentative rebounds, reflecting a crypto market deeply influenced by macroeconomic uncertainty, shifting institutional flows, and evolving investor sentiment.

​Whether the current bounce evolves into a sustained recovery or remains a temporary reprieve will depend heavily on developments in global markets, institutional behaviour, and broader confidence in risk assets.

​Bitcoin bullish case:

​Bitcoin is gradually heading towards its early December high at $94,213.50. A daily chart close above this level on a daily chart closing basis may lead to the psychological $100,000 region being revisited.

​For the bulls to be back in control, however, the 11 November high at $107,461.75 would need to be overcome.

​Bitcoin bearish case:

​While the 3 December high at $94,213.50  isn’t overcome on a daily chart closing basis, downside pressure may once more rear its head with the $80,000.00 zone remaining in sight.

​For this to be the case, a resumption of the bear trend and fall through Sunday’s low at $87,783.05 would need to ensue.

​Short-term outlook: neutral while below $94,213.50

​Medium-term outlook: neutral while below the 3 December high at $94,213.50 and above its $80,619.71 late November low 

AL-S Pharma is planning a registrational study for its amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) monoclonal antibody (mAb), AP-101, after the drug met its efficacy and safety endpoints in a mid-stage trial.

During the Phase II study (NCT05039099), ALS patients treated early with AP-101 displayed prolonged survival and delayed ventilatory support after 12 months of treatment compared to those who received placebo for six months then AP-101 for six months. This benefit was observed across both the sporadic ALS and superoxide dismutase 1 (SOD1) mutation carrier cohorts.

The SOD1-targeting mAb also triggered disease stabilisation, as measured by King’s staging, which qualitatively categorises disease progression based on the condition of the bulbar, upper and lower limb and diaphragm regions.

Patients receiving AP-101 also experienced reduced functional decline in patients with elevated, misfolded SOD1 levels at baseline, as well as those with SOD1 mutations.

Alongside the drug’s impact on disease progression and stabilisation, patients receiving AP-101 experienced changes to neurofilament biomarkers, which AL-S claims “aligns with AP-101’s clinical benefit”.

While AL-S did not provide specifics on the drug’s safety profile, the Swiss biotech did note that adverse events (AEs) were similar between the placebo and treatment groups. There were no antibody responses to AP-101 observed during the 12-month study.

AL-S presented the data at the 36th International Symposium on ALS/MND, which was held from 5 to 7 December in San Diego; however, the company had previously confirmed the drug met the trial endpoints.

According to the CEO of AL-S Pharma, Michael Salzmann, the biotech now plans to discuss next steps for AP-101 with regulators in the coming months, as the company prepares to initiate a confirmatory Phase III study.

Homing in on SOD1

While ALS has typically been a challenging indication to treat, there are now four therapies that have gained approval from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

This includes Biogen and Ionis Pharmaceuticals’ SOD1-targeting antisense oligonucleotide, Qalsody (tofersen), which gained accelerated approval from the FDA in 2023, despite the VALOR trial failing to meet its primary endpoint of improved ALSFRS-R scores over 28 weeks. The FDA granted the drug approval based on changes in plasma levels of neurofilament light (NfL) protein.

While Qalsody’s results have been mixed thus far, SOD1 has been a target of interest across the ALS research space, with four drugs, including AP-101, in active development, according to GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center.

GlobalData is the parent company of Clinical Trials Arena.

The ALS Association currently estimates that SOD1 gene mutations are observed in 10-20% of familial ALS cases, while 1-2% of sporadic ALS cases are linked to this mutation.

If AL-S’s SOD1-directed AP-101 were to get the FDA go-ahead, it would offer an alternative dosing option to Qalsody, as AP-101 can be administered intravenously, while Qalsody requires patients to undergo an intrathecal injection.

According to GlobalData’s patient-based forecast, Qalsody will make $68m for Biogen and Ionis in 2029.

Insider Brief:

• Quantum Source released a comprehensive technical report, developed with The Quantum Insider, that compares all major qubit modalities and outlines engineering pathways toward fault-tolerant quantum computing.

• The report highlights that the field has moved from theoretical exploration to practical engineering, with recent demonstrations from Google and Quantinuum showing logical qubits outperforming physical ones.

• It introduces a unified framework comparing qubit systems by qubit carrier and computational model, showing that while no modality currently dominates, hybrid approaches may have the potential to overcome key scalability limits.

• A case study on Quantum Source’s deterministic atom–photon platform shows how their design replaces probabilistic photonic entanglement with efficient, repeatable atom-mediated processes, reducing hardware overhead and enabling scalable, modular architectures for future fault-tolerant systems.

Quantum Source, a pioneering company developing scalable photonic quantum computing systems, has released a new industry report, From Qubits to Logic: Engineering Fault-Tolerant Quantum Systems, offering one of the most comprehensive technical assessments to date of the global push toward fault-tolerant quantum computing.

The report, developed in partnership with The Quantum Insider, synthesizes progress across all major qubit modalities and introduces a comparative framework linking physical qubit performance, quantum-error-correction (QEC) strategies, and scalability. The report emphasizes that the path to fault tolerance has shifted from a theoretical goal to an engineering challenge, defined by how well systems scale, and integrate control, architecture, and error-correction design.

The Transition from Theory to Demonstration

The report defines fault tolerance as the capability of a quantum computer to perform arbitrarily long computations reliably, even when each underlying physical gate or measurement is prone to error. Achieving this requires encoding logical qubits across many physical qubits and applying continuous error detection and correction.

As explained in the report, recent milestones such as Google’s Willow processor achieving error suppression below the surface-code threshold and Quantinuum’s demonstration of logical gates outperforming physical ones confirm that the field has entered a new phase. Logical qubits are now capable of surpassing physical fidelity, which is an essential crucial step toward scalable, useful quantum machines

“For more than two decades, the theoretical foundations of quantum error correction have matured,” said Michael Slutsky, Head of Theory at Quantum Source. “In recent years, the first functional logical elements have been experimentally demonstrated across a broad range of hardware platforms, showing steadily improving performance and marking real progress toward the fault-tolerant era. We’re not there yet—but the future is coming into focus.”

A Unified Framework for Comparing Qubit Modalities

The report organizes today’s quantum hardware landscape along two fundamental axes:

• The physical nature of the qubit carrier (matter-based vs. photon-based), and
• The computational model (circuit-based vs. measurement-based quantum computing, MBQC).

This two-axis perspective clarifies both the constraints and opportunities inherent to each modality:

• Superconducting qubits – Fast gate speeds and mature fabrication, but cryogenic wiring and variability limit scaling.

• Trapped-ion qubits – Record-setting fidelities and all-to-all connectivity, yet scaling is constrained by mode crowding and control complexity.

• Neutral-atom qubits – Large, reconfigurable arrays with second-scale coherence, but two-qubit fidelities must exceed 99.9 %.

• Semiconductor spin qubits – CMOS compatibility and density advantages offset by device variability and cryogenic control challenges.

• Photonic qubits – Operate at room temperature and excel at networking, but photon loss and probabilistic entanglement limit scalability.

The comparative framework reveals that no modality yet leads the path to fault tolerance. Each platform carries its own engineering trade-offs, from coherence limits to fabrication challenges, making progress uneven and interdependent. While hybrid approaches remain unproven, they represent a promising area of exploration, particularly for addressing bottlenecks that no single technology can overcome alone. It is within this emerging space that Quantum Source is positioning its deterministic atom–photon architecture.

Quantum Source’s Deterministic Atom–Photon Architecture

At the center of the report there is a case study on Quantum Source’s hybrid atom–photon platform, which replaces probabilistic two-photon fusion with deterministic atom-mediated entanglement.

In conventional measurement-based photonic computing, millions of synchronized photon sources and switches are needed to compensate for low entangling-gate success rates. Quantum Source’s design solves this by using single trapped atoms as reusable entanglement mediators:

• A photon is first entangled with an atom inside a high-finesse optical cavity.

• The atomic state is then mapped onto a second photon, entangling the two photons deterministically through the shared atomic state.

• The same atom can repeat this process, efficiently generating large photonic cluster states.

This deterministic atom–photon mechanism reduces hardware overhead, requiring fewer photon sources, switches, and detectors. It also maintains full compatibility with room-temperature photonic systems.

“By harnessing deterministic photon–atom interactions on a chip, we can generate entangled photonic states with unprecedented efficiency, at room temperature, in a compact and scalable architecture,” said Oded Melamed, CEO of Quantum Source. 

The report concludes that this hybrid approach “directly addresses the primary photonic bottleneck of two-photon entanglement” and could enable modular, distributed FTQC architectures where matter qubits handle deterministic logic and photons manage long-distance communication

Implications for Industry and Policy

The paper frames FTQC as both a technological and strategic inflection point.

For industry, success will depend on co-optimizing hardware, software, and error-correction stacks to minimize overhead. For investors and policymakers, diversification across hardware modalities is essential: each contributes unique value to the developing ecosystem.

The report forecasts that within the next decade, logical qubits will likely outperform physical ones and million-qubit systems will become a realistic engineering target. Hybrid innovations such as Quantum Source’s atom–photon platform may play an essential role in achieving those goals.

About the Report

From Qubits to Logic: Engineering Fault-Tolerant Quantum Systems is a 2025 technical white paper by Quantum Source, developed in partnership with The Quantum Insider.

The report presents a comprehensive comparative analysis of major qubit modalities and introduces a framework for evaluating fault-tolerant scalability across hardware classes. It includes expert commentary from leading researchers and references to recent experimental breakthroughs spanning superconducting, ion-trap, neutral-atom, spin, and photonic platforms.

For more information or to access the full report, visit this link.