Category: 3. Business

Will retailers and merchants have a strong holiday season? That depends. This year, more than most, the 2025 holiday season will actually be two holiday seasons.

If your business caters to higher-income individuals or if you’re located in a wealthier part of the country, you’ll probably have a decent holiday season. True, even the wealthy are cutting back. But according to the HR firm ADP average salaries have risen between 4.5% and 6.7% depending on whether workers stayed or switched jobs. The stock markets, though increasingly volatile, are up over 13% since the beginning of the year. And in some parts of the country, notably New York, Boston, DC and San Francisco, the average household income is over $125,000 – almost $41,000 higher than the national average. People in this demographic may be a little more cautious but they’ll spend.

Don’t believe me? Just take a walk in or near Soho, Georgetown, Presidio Heights or Beacon Hill. Restaurants selling $49 chicken parms and $16 baked potatoes … and they’re full. Vegas steakhouses are still getting $165 for a porterhouse – and the tables are packed. I searched for a room recently near Dana Point, California, and the Marriott there was sold out … at $750 a night!

But for many others? That’s a different story.

Another analysis from the HR giant Paychex reports that rises in hourly wages – those mostly earned by blue-collar workers – have been tracking below 3% for over a year (it’s currently at 2.58%).

According to Van Hesser, the chief strategist at credit rating analysis agency KBRA, the top 10% of earners account for 50% of spending. But the rest? They’re not going to spend as much this year. They’re already riddled with credit card debt. They’re mostly not participating in the stock market boom. They are barely making rent, let alone splurging on holiday gifts.

That doesn’t mean the remaining 90% of the US won’t be visiting stores. But it’s guaranteed that they’ll be spending less. Costs are much higher. Promised tax rebates and pie-in-the-sky “tariff” refunds aren’t happening this year. And with millions losing their jobs this year alone thanks to corporate mismanagement, restructurings, profit-taking and the creepage of AI, the next few years are sure to be uncertain.

The annual major surveys of retail sales are telling us just that.

For example, an S&P Global Ratings report expects holiday sales (November-December) will grow 4% in 2025 from 2024, but thanks to weaker consumer confidence on the “uncertain macroeconomic outlook” those researchers say that most of these sales increases won’t be volume related, but due to increased prices that actual retail spending when you take out inflation will “remain relatively flat”.

The consulting giant Deloitte is projecting that holiday retail sales will grow between 2.9% and 3.4% in 2025. But this is well below the 4.2% from last year’s growth and below the 10-year average of 5.2%. The reasons given are all the same: tariffs, inflation, uncertainty.

“It’s a tale of two economies,” said KRBA’s Hesser. “While wealthy consumers continue spending, the less wealthy are pulling back – evidenced by earnings misses from fast-casual dining (Chipotle, Cava) and decade-high unemployment for recent college graduates.”

Hesser also warns that the negative wealth effects that could come from an equity market correction “can create headwinds across the entire consumer landscape, from staples to discretionary categories like travel and leisure – especially as we head into the holiday season”.

So how will small businesses – my clients – fare this holiday season? Considering that for most, holiday sales make up as much as half of their annual revenue, it’s a very important question.

I’m sure the usual crowds will be out supporting them on Small Business Saturday. And for those doing business to the right demographic – the top 10% of earners, they’ll be fine. Or if they’re located in the more affluent areas of New York, Boston, DC and San Francisco they’ll be fine too. Others may have more of a challenge this year.

Story Continues

Working from home used to be an extraordinary concession in extraordinary times—namely, the Covid-19 pandemic that kept us all in our jammies for at least the better part of a year. While many of us have returned to the office to some extent, some vestiges remain. That includes the enduring popularity of at-home walking pads. They’re compact, affordable treadmills that you can slide under a standing desk to rack up some miles and improve your focus while you work.

I’m a recent convert, mainly because it’s so easy to just check if I broke 10,000 steps that day and hop on a walking pad for 20 minutes while watching some holiday rom-com. So it is with great pleasure that I report that our best walking pad, the Urevo CyberPad for Home, is now an unbelievable $139 off.

Unlike most affordable walking pads, the CyberPad has a 14 percent incline. That’s steep enough for a pretty solid workout, even if the speed does not exceed 4 mph. Reviewer Kristin Canning said that she found it smooth and responsive, and her knees didn’t hurt even after hours of walking. It also comes with a Bluetooth remote as well as an app (iOS, Android). You can control the pad with either, and it also has a display screen on the front of the pad that shows speed, incline, time, distance, and calories.

It also has some fun features that you might not see on other, even more expensive pads. With the app, you can control lights that run along the rails of the CyberPad. For well under $500, this is a sturdy, versatile addition to your home office.

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Airlines have averted the threat of major global travel disruption after rushing to fix a software glitch on Airbus A320 jets caused by intense solar radiation. 

Carriers worked through Friday night and into the weekend after aviation regulators said they must fix the problem before resuming flights.

American Airlines, Delta Air Lines and Air India were among those that said they had completed software updates by Saturday, along with European low-cost operators Wizz Air and EasyJet.

Data from flight tracker FlightAware showed most big airports reporting good traffic flow, although some had minor problems. 

In the US, where the glitch threatened to disrupt the busy Thanksgiving travel weekend, transportation secretary Sean Duffy said in a social media post on Saturday that carriers had “reported great progress” and were “on track to meet the deadline of this Sunday at midnight to complete the work”. 

Some airlines, however, were harder hit. Colombia’s Avianca said on Friday that more than 70 per cent of its fleet was affected and that it was halting ticket sales until December 8. 

In Asia, Japan’s ANA said on Sunday that it had completed the software updates on all the affected aircraft but that the work had resulted in a “significant number” of domestic flight delays and cancellations over the weekend. The carrier cancelled 95 flights on Saturday, affecting about 13,200 passengers. 

Guillaume Faury, chief executive of Airbus, apologised to airline customers and passengers for the “significant logistical challenges and delays”. The manufacturer’s teams were “working round the clock” to enable carriers to “get planes back in the sky”, Faury wrote in a social media post on Saturday. 

Airbus on Friday had warned that a “significant” number of its A320 family of aircraft, the world’s most widely flown commercial jet, needed an immediate software update after finding that intense solar flare radiation could corrupt data critical to the functioning of flight controls. 

About 6,000 aircraft, half of the global fleet in service, were affected. Most of the jets have been able to undergo an uncomplicated software fix by reverting to a previous version — a process that takes about two to three hours. But about 900 aircraft require a change in hardware, which will take longer.

Airbus discovered the issue after a JetBlue Airways flight between the US and Mexico suffered a control problem and a sudden drop in altitude, which forced an emergency landing in Tampa, Florida.

The investigation traced the problem to a flight system that sends commands from the pilot’s sidestick to elevators at the rear of the plane. Those elevators control the aircraft’s pitch or nose angle.

Dear editor

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are gold standard for evaluating intervention efficacy. Yet, for complex physical interventions like acupuncture, establishing an adequate placebo control remains challenging.¹ Common placebo procedures include shallow needling (SN), non-penetrating needle device (NPND), non-acupoint needling, and needling at acupoints not traditionally indicated for the target condition, either alone or in combination.² A critical question is which placebo technique is optimal.

Wang et al recently addressed this using a Bayesian Network Meta-Analysis (NMA) in primary insomnia (PI). They concluded that NPND is preferable to SN as a placebo control in acupuncture RCTs for PI, citing comparable effects on reducing PSQI scores and altering objective sleep parameters, but a lower overall ranking for NPND on the SUCRA curve, suggesting weaker therapeutic activity.³

While we acknowledge the rigor of this study, we respectfully offer a different perspective to stimulate further discussion.

Evidence for NPND Inertness Remains Restricted

An ideal control should be physiologically inert, exerting no therapeutic effect while ensuring participant blinding.¹ Validating NPND necessitates rigorous demonstration of inertness. Wang et al reported no significant difference between NPND and non-acupuncture controls in improving subjective sleep—but this relied on only two trials: one with a no-treatment control (n = 16)⁴ and another permitting any insomnia treatment except acupuncture and herbal medicine—potentially including CBTi or hypnotics (n = 49).⁵ This limited evidence introduces substantial uncertainty. Furthermore, if NPND produces outcomes comparable to conventional treatments, it might possess intrinsic efficacy rather than being inert. Future studies should compare within-group outcomes before and after NPND intervention to confirm inertness.

Beyond Efficacy: Practical Considerations in Placebo Selection

Wang et al’s conclusion—that NPND is preferable to SN based exclusively on therapeutic outcomes in sleep—oversimplifies the methodological complexity of acupuncture RCTs. Practical factors must also be considered.

First, insomnia treatment often involves head acupoints (eg, GV20, EX-HN1),⁶ typically needled transversely (≤15° relative to the skin surface). NPND like Streitberger or Park devices relies on adhesive bases and perpendicular application, making them unsuitable for simulating transverse needling. Moreover, in participants with abundant scalp hair, device adhesion is often compromised, potentially necessitating shaving—a requirement that further undermines feasibility in clinical trials.

Second, blinding efficacy with NPND may be inadequate in participants familiar with acupuncture. Pilot data from our previous RCT on perimenopausal insomnia revealed that participants could readily distinguish NPND from real needles based on tactile sensation and perceived penetration. Consequently, we substituted NPND with SN at non-insomnia-relevant acupoints. The sham group achieved a Bang’s Blinding Index of −0.14 (within −0.20 to 0.20), indicating successful blinding.⁷

The Unique Advantages of SN as a Control Should Not Be Overlooked

Beyond enhancing blinding credibility through a more authentic needling sensation, SN offers additional advantages over NPND, including: (1) Superior cost-effectiveness and accessibility, as it utilizes standard acupuncture needles instead of costly specialized devices; (2) Enhanced clinical relevance and external validity, by reframing the research question around a clinically meaningful dose-response relationship (ie, therapeutic deep needling versus minimal shallow needling), the findings of which directly inform real-world practice; (3) Greater ethical acceptability, owing to the mild physiological stimulus provided even at non-indication points, thereby alleviating concerns associated with administering a completely inert intervention.

While NPND remains appropriate in certain contexts—such as acupuncture-naïve populations in Western settings, or trials restricted to perpendicularly needled acupoints (eg, HT7, PC6)—SN may be preferable in East Asian participants familiar with acupuncture, in RCTs involving scalp acupoints, or when budget constraints are considerable.

Conclusion

In RCTs of acupuncture for insomnia, placebo selection should not only consider inertness but also other factors such as blinding effect, applicability across different needling techniques, costs, cultural context, and ethics. Rather than pursuing a single “ideal” placebo, we recommend making context-specific choices tailored to the study population, clinical setting, and research objectives. Adopting such a nuanced and flexible approach can enhance the internal validity of RCTs while ensuring the clinical relevance of the findings.

Abbreviations

CBTi, Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for Insomnia; NMA, Network Meta-Analysis; NPND, Non-Penetrating Needle Device; PI, Primary Insomnia; PSQI, Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index; RCT(s), Randomized Controlled Trial(s); SN, Shallow Needling; SUCRA, Surface Under the Cumulative Ranking; TCM, Traditional Chinese Medicine.

Data Sharing Statement

Data availability is not applicable as no new data was generated or analyzed in this communication.

Author Contributions

Fei-Yi Zhao – Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Investigation, Writing – original draft; Wen-Jing Zhang – Formal analysis, Supervision, Writing – review & editing; Qiang-Qiang Fu – Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Investigation, Writing – review & editing. All authors gave final approval of the version to be published; have agreed on the journal to which the article has been submitted; and agree to be accountable for all aspects of the work.

Funding

No funding was received.

Disclosure

The authors declare no competing interests.

References

1. Zhang CS, Tan HY, Zhang GS, Zhang AL, Xue CC, Xie YM. Placebo devices as effective control methods in acupuncture clinical trials: a systematic review. PLoS One. 2015;10(11):e0140825. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0140825

2. Appleyard I, Lundeberg T, Robinson N. Should systematic reviews assess the risk of bias from sham–placebo acupuncture control procedures? Eur J Int Med. 2014;6(2):234–243. doi:10.1016/j.eujim.2014.03.004

3. Wang Y, Wu M, Zhang J, et al. Is Sham acupuncture equally effective for primary insomnia? A Bayesian network meta-analysis. Nat Sci Sleep. 2025;17:1997–2012. doi:10.2147/NSS.S541797

4. Xu SF, Sun YN, Wang S, Wu JY, Yin P. Clinical observation of electroacupuncture at Baihui (GV20) and Shenting (GV24) for the treatment of primary insomnia. Sichuan J Tradit Chin Med. 2014;32(5):154–156.

5. Lee B, Kim BK, Kim HJ, et al. Efficacy and safety of electroacupuncture for insomnia disorder: a multicenter, randomized, assessor-blinded, controlled trial. Nat Sci Sleep. 2020;12:1145–1159. doi:10.2147/NSS.S281231

6. Zhao FY, Spencer SJ, Kennedy GA, et al. Acupuncture for primary insomnia: effectiveness, safety, mechanisms and recommendations for clinical practice. Sleep Med Rev. 2024;74:101892. doi:10.1016/j.smrv.2023.101892

7. Zhao FY, Zheng Z, Fu QQ, et al. Acupuncture for comorbid depression and insomnia in perimenopause: a feasibility patient-assessor-blinded, randomized, and sham-controlled clinical trial. Front Public Health. 2023;11:1120567. doi:10.3389/fpubh.2023.1120567

The upmarket bakery chain Gail’s is planning 40 more outlets after sales rose by a fifth last year as it opened 36 new bakeries and sales to supermarkets increased.

The cafe and retailer, which currently has 185 sites, said sales rose to £278m in the year to the end of February but that pre-tax losses widened to £7.8m, from £7.4m a year before, as costs rose and it spent millions on opening new outlets.

Gail’s directors said staff and energy costs had risen, hitting profit margins, while it spent £51m on store reopening costs.

Sales at its retail arm rose almost 23%, more than double the pace of its wholesale division, which supplies clients including Waitrose, Ocado and Amazon from bakeries in London, Manchester and Bath.

A Gail’s spokesperson told the Propel trade journal: “We are pleased to have delivered strong year-on-year growth. This performance is underpinned by the increasing demand for high-quality, nutrient dense food, and by the support of the communities we serve. We will continue to build on this momentum by growing with purpose and remaining committed to improving access to good food.”

Speaking at a conference organised by Propel this month, Tom Molnar, who co-founded Gail’s 20 years ago, said the business was “still early in our growth”.

He said: “We do have a lot of bakeries now, but it took 20 years to get there. It wasn’t easy, and it wasn’t very fast. Twice, we had to stop growing altogether, because we didn’t think that we could be better; we were worried about getting consumed by speed. We’re still early in our growth. You take McDonald’s, Greggs or any other successful food business here in the UK – they operate from thousands of sites, and we’re still below 200.”

Gail’s owners, led by the private equity group Bain Capital, last year reportedly hired the financial advisory company Goldman Sachs to help find new investors in an effort to drive expansion. The chain was said to be worth as much as £500m.

The bakery was founded by Yael (Gail) Mejia in the early 1990s serving restaurants and other venues in London. In 2003, Molnar and a few others joined Mejia and the group opened the first bakery cafe in Hampstead in 2005.

The rapidly expanding chain has become an unlikely political bellwether – used by the Liberal Democrats to help identify areas where voters might be ready to switch from the Conservatives.

Its expansion has also spurred local protests, including a heated one in Walthamstow, east London, where a petition to stop a Gail’s opening was signed by hundreds of residents. A new branch in Brighton was spray-painted with the world “boring” and a large image of a penis, according the local newspaper the Argus.

ASICS (TSE:7936) has seen its stock shift in recent trading sessions, drawing attention from investors curious about evolving trends. Looking at recent price moves, the shares have tracked a modest range this month with slight downward pressure.

See our latest analysis for ASICS.

Stepping back, ASICS has delivered standout long-term results, with a total shareholder return of 25.4% over the last year and an astonishing 415.75% in the past three years. While the last few months saw some mild share price weakness, the bigger picture still points to sustained momentum and renewed interest from investors looking for growth in consumer brands.

If you’re curious about what other fast-rising companies are catching attention lately, this is a great time to discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With shares still trading at a notable discount to analyst targets and robust fundamentals in play, the key question is whether ASICS remains undervalued or if the market has already accounted for its next stage of growth.

ASICS currently trades at a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 31.5x, far above both its peer average and the luxury sector as a whole. This raises questions about whether such a premium is warranted for the brand’s earnings outlook.

The price-to-earnings ratio measures how much investors are paying for each unit of profit. In consumer brands like ASICS, this multiple often reflects not just present profitability but also expectations for future growth and brand strength.

Despite strong recent earnings growth and a robust return on equity, this 31.5x multiple is more than double the industry average of 14.9x and also well above our estimated fair ratio of 23.1x. The current valuation suggests that the market is highly optimistic about future performance, potentially pricing in ambitious targets for sustained growth and profitability. If expectations fade, the multiple could contract significantly to better align with peers or its intrinsic potential.

Explore the SWS fair ratio for ASICS

Result: Price-to-Earnings of 31.5x (OVERVALUED)

However, slowing revenue growth and a potential pullback from recent highs could expose the stock to volatility if market sentiment shifts.

Find out about the key risks to this ASICS narrative.

Taking a different approach, our SWS DCF model estimates ASICS to be overvalued, with shares trading above the model’s calculated fair value of ¥3,286. While multiples suggest high optimism, the DCF model indicates that future cash flows may not fully support the current market price. Could analyst optimism be running ahead of fundamentals?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out ASICS for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 914 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match – so you never miss a potential opportunity.

If you see things differently or want to uncover your own perspective, it’s easy to analyze the numbers and tell your version of the story in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding ASICS.

Every investor deserves the smartest tools. Open the door to new opportunities with Simply Wall Street’s screeners and stay a step ahead in today’s dynamic market.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include 7936.T.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

SailPoint (SAIL) has seen its stock move lately, with investors keeping an eye on the company’s recent performance numbers and trends. Shares changed only slightly in the last day but have lagged over the past month, showing a cautious sentiment around the name.

See our latest analysis for SailPoint.

Looking at the bigger picture, SailPoint’s 1-month share price return of -15.04% highlights a notable loss of momentum. This result caps off an already weak trend so far this year, despite steady demand for its identity security solutions. In a single stroke, the stock has underperformed both recently and over the longer term, signaling that appetite for risk in this corner of enterprise software remains muted.

If you’re curious to see what else is out there, this could be the perfect time to broaden your search and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With shares sitting well below analyst targets, the question facing investors now is whether SailPoint’s recent weakness signals a buying opportunity or if the market has already factored in all of its future growth prospects.

SailPoint trades at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 10.6x, which is notably higher than both its peer group and industry averages. For investors, this premium valuation raises the question of whether the company’s revenue growth profile is strong enough to justify such a hefty price tag.

The price-to-sales ratio measures how much investors are willing to pay per dollar of revenue. It is a popular metric for software companies, many of which are still working towards consistent profitability, because it focuses on revenue generation rather than profit. When a P/S ratio stands well above the norm, the market is often anticipating robust revenue growth or defensibility.

In SailPoint’s case, the current P/S of 10.6x is elevated compared to both the US Software industry average of 4.9x and its peer group average of 8.6x. In addition, our fair P/S ratio estimate is 7.1x, suggesting further downside if expectations moderate. The market is clearly assigning a premium that is above historical or sector benchmarks, implying high confidence in future sales growth or strategic positioning.

Explore the SWS fair ratio for SailPoint

Result: Price-to-Sales of 10.6x (OVERVALUED)

However, slowing revenue growth or persistent operating losses could challenge investor confidence and force a reassessment of SailPoint’s elevated valuation.

Find out about the key risks to this SailPoint narrative.

While the price-to-sales ratio points to an overvalued stock, another angle comes from the SWS DCF model. This method looks at the present value of expected future cash flows, rather than just revenue.

Our DCF model finds SailPoint trading above its estimate of fair value. This suggests investors might be paying a premium for future growth that is not yet guaranteed. Could this mean further downside risk, or is the market simply seeing something others miss?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out SailPoint for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 914 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match – so you never miss a potential opportunity.

If you see things differently or want to dig into the details yourself, building your own analysis is quick and straightforward. Try it out: Do it your way

A great starting point for your SailPoint research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Take control of your portfolio and seize opportunities now. Expand your watchlist by checking out these handpicked stock ideas, each targeting a key trend in today’s market.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include SAIL.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

More than 250 languages were spoken across Australia before British colonisation. Now only half are still in use as a result of policies that suppressed and prevented First Nations people from speaking their mother tongues.

Indigenous affairs reporter Ella Archibald-Binge travels to two communities including her country to hear from elders, teachers and students about efforts to revive native languages and close the education gap