Category: 3. Business

  • While shareholders of XP (NASDAQ:XP) are in the red over the last five years, underlying earnings have actually grown

    While shareholders of XP (NASDAQ:XP) are in the red over the last five years, underlying earnings have actually grown

    Generally speaking long term investing is the way to go. But no-one is immune from buying too high. To wit, the XP Inc. (NASDAQ:XP) share price managed to fall 62% over five long years. That is extremely sub-optimal, to say the least. More recently, the share price has dropped a further 17% in a month.

    The recent uptick of 4.7% could be a positive sign of things to come, so let’s take a look at historical fundamentals.

    AI is about to change healthcare. These 20 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part – they are all under $10bn in marketcap – there is still time to get in early.

    While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

    During the unfortunate half decade during which the share price slipped, XP actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 26% per year. So it doesn’t seem like EPS is a great guide to understanding how the market is valuing the stock. Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.

    Because of the sharp contrast between the EPS growth rate and the share price growth, we’re inclined to look to other metrics to understand the changing market sentiment around the stock.

    We note that the dividend has remained healthy, so that wouldn’t really explain the share price drop. While it’s not completely obvious why the share price is down, a closer look at the company’s history might help explain it.

    You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

    NasdaqGS:XP Earnings and Revenue Growth October 18th 2025

    XP is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. Given we have quite a good number of analyst forecasts, it might be well worth checking out this free chart depicting consensus estimates.

    It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It’s fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for XP the TSR over the last 5 years was -58%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

    Investors in XP had a tough year, with a total loss of 4.2% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 16%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. However, the loss over the last year isn’t as bad as the 10% per annum loss investors have suffered over the last half decade. We’d need to see some sustained improvements in the key metrics before we could muster much enthusiasm. Importantly, we haven’t analysed XP’s dividend history. This free visual report on its dividends is a must-read if you’re thinking of buying.

    But note: XP may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

    Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

    Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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  • 5 bubble-resistant tech stocks to guard your portfolio from an AI crash

    5 bubble-resistant tech stocks to guard your portfolio from an AI crash

    By Christine Ji and Philip van Doorn

    At a time where some companies are seeing declining free cash flow due to AI spending, these five tech stocks are doing the opposite

    Investors looking to hedge against an AI downturn should consider looking at a company’s free cash flow yield.

    Announcements of deals with OpenAI have sent shares of chip makers Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) soaring, while nuclear-energy stock Oklo Inc. (OKLO) has rallied almost 1,000% in the last year – despite having no revenues – on hopes that nuclear power will help meet the energy needs of artificial-intelligence infrastructure.

    In a market trading on future potential instead of current fundamentals, many investors are wondering if the AI trade is overheating. And if AI is indeed becoming a bubble, what can you do to protect your portfolio?

    There are still ways to play the AI trade in a less speculative way by focusing on a company’s fundamentals. Ted Mortonson, managing director at Baird, has his eyes on one metric: free cash flow, or the money left over after a company spends on its operations and capital assets.

    A company’s free-cash-flow yield – or how much free cash flow it generates divided by its total market capitalization – gives investors a way to compare how much cash is returned for every dollar invested in the stock. While massive AI capital expenditures are seeing free cash flows at Big Tech companies trend downward or turn negative, other areas of the market are seeing the opposite effect.

    If demand for AI products fails to live up to current expectations, it’ll be hard to avoid a widespread stock-market decline. Market concentration among the “Magnificent Seven” megacap tech stocks has reached record levels, and the AI theme has boosted valuations across all parts of the economy.

    Yet companies with growing free cash flows will be better positioned to weather a potential downturn than those without.

    Screening for tech stocks with high free-cash-flow yields

    To begin this screen, we started with the 70 components of the S&P 500’s SPX information-technology sector XX:SP500.45. What might surprise you about this sector is that it excludes some of the largest tech-oriented companies such as Meta Platforms Inc. (META) and Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) (GOOG), both of which are in the communications-services sector XX:SP500.50.

    To bring those companies in, we added the 45 components of the Nasdaq-100 Technology Sector index XX:NDXT (a subset of the Nasdaq-100 index NDX) to our initial list. After removing duplicates, this left us with 82 stocks.

    We screened for estimated free-cash-flow yields based on current share prices and consensus 2026 estimates for free cash flow per share among analysts polled by LSEG. The estimates are adjusted for the calendar year for companies whose fiscal reporting periods don’t match the calendar. Since consensus 2026 FCF estimates weren’t available for 10 of the companies, we were left with 72 stocks.

    Some of these companies pay dividends – and since no management team wants to lower dividend payouts because of the dire effect that doing so can have on a stock’s price, we subtracted the dividend yields from the expected FCF yields for estimated 2026 FCF “headroom.” The idea is that the headroom is cash that the companies are free to use to fund expansion, raise dividends, buy back shares or for other corporate purposes that would hopefully benefit shareholders.

    Here are the 20 stocks passing the screen with the highest expected 2026 free-cash-flow headroom:

       Name                                   Ticker   Forward P/E  Estimated 2026 FCF headroom  Estimated 2026 FCF yield  Dividend yield 
       PDD Holdings Inc.                     PDD              11.4                       12.59%                    12.59%           0.00% 
       GoDaddy Inc.                          GDDY             18.4                        9.78%                     9.78%           0.00% 
       Akamai Technologies Inc.              AKAM             10.4                        8.48%                     8.48%           0.00% 
       ON Semiconductor Corp.                ON               18.9                        8.02%                     8.02%           0.00% 
       Adobe Inc.                            ADBE             14.1                        7.74%                     7.74%           0.00% 
       Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp.  CTSH             12.0                        6.83%                     8.72%           1.89% 
       Gartner Inc.                          IT               18.2                        6.82%                     6.82%           0.00% 
       First Solar Inc.                      FSLR             11.0                        6.68%                     6.68%           0.00% 
       Dell Technologies Inc.                DELL             14.0                        6.60%                     7.99%           1.39% 
       GlobalFoundries Inc.                  GFS              18.2                        6.55%                     6.55%           0.00% 
       Gen Digital Inc.                      GEN               9.7                        6.55%                     8.44%           1.89% 
       Zebra Technologies Corp.              ZBRA             16.8                        6.06%                     6.06%           0.00% 
       Salesforce Inc.                       CRM              19.7                        5.90%                     6.58%           0.68% 
       Qualcomm Inc.                         QCOM             13.6                        5.86%                     8.03%           2.17% 
       F5 Inc.                               FFIV             17.9                        5.84%                     5.84%           0.00% 
       Skyworks Solutions Inc.               SWKS             17.4                        5.83%                     9.64%           3.81% 
       Western Digital Corp.                 WDC              17.3                        5.32%                     5.64%           0.32% 
       NetApp Inc.                           NTAP             14.7                        5.50%                     7.24%           1.74% 
       Workday Inc.                          WDAY             22.3                        5.20%                     5.20%           0.00% 
       Atlassian Corp.                       TEAM             31.9                        4.87%                     4.87%           0.00% 
                                                                                                                             Source: LSEG 

    (You might need to scroll the table to see all of the data, or flip to a landscape view, depending on which device you are using. Click on the tickers for more information about each stock.)

    Read: Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the information available on the MarketWatch quote page

    The table includes forward price-to-earnings ratios, which are current stock prices divided by consensus earnings-per-share estimates among analysts polled by FactSet. Most of the stocks among these 20 trade at low valuations compared with forward P/E ratios of 30.5 for the S&P 500 information-technology sector, 27.9 for the Nasdaq-100 and 23 for the full S&P 500.

    Out of these 20 names, analysts are especially bullish on five, in particular: Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM), Western Digital Corp. (WDC), Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL), Atlassian Corp. (TEAM) and Salesforce Inc. (CRM)

    Several of these names are hardware companies that have benefited greatly from selling the picks and shovels of the AI trade. Storage and memory businesses such as Qualcomm and Western Digital have seen demand for their products shoot up. Western Digital is one of the largest players in enterprise hard disk drives and is gaining pricing power amid this backdrop, Travis Prentice, chief investment officer of the Informed Momentum Company, recently told MarketWatch. As a result, Western Digital’s free-cash-flow yield inflected positive at the end of 2024 and has increased ever since.

    Mortonson likes Qualcomm because of its “fabless” business model, which means that it designs its own chips but outsources the manufacturing. “Semiconductor companies that do not own their fabs produce an enormous amount of free cash flow,” Mortonson told MarketWatch. Additionally, Qualcomm’s products will be critical to powering AI devices at the “edge,” such as next-generation wearables, he added.

    Dell is another attractive opportunity for investors looking for free cash flow. Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan wrote in a note last month that Dell should be able to grow its free cash flow “meaningfully” as it increases profitability on the AI servers it sells and expands its storage business.

    Outside of AI hardware, the software sector also presents opportunities for robust free cash flows. Atlassian, which specializes in collaboration tools for developers, is one example. Miller Jump, vice president of equity research at Truist Securities, anticipates that Atlassian will be able to grow its free cash flow at 13.7% annually.

    And Salesforce is another pick for Mortonson and BofA analyst Brad Sills. Although the stock has sold off 26% this year on fears of slow AI adoption, the company showed rising momentum with its Agentforce offering at its recent investor day. Salesforce also announced plans to repurchase $7 billion in shares over the next six months. In a note on Thursday, Sills raised the company’s free-cash-flow targets for the 2026 and 2027 fiscal years to $16.2 billion and $18.5 billion – a 2.5% and 3.7% increase, respectively.

    Read: Think AI is a bubble? Here’s how to position your stock portfolio.

    -Christine Ji -Philip van Doorn

    This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

    (END) Dow Jones Newswires

    10-18-25 0800ET

    Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

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  • RNA Sequencing Signatures May Guide Treatment Selection in Advanced ccRCC

    RNA Sequencing Signatures May Guide Treatment Selection in Advanced ccRCC

    RNA sequencing (RNAseq)-defined clusters could effectively be used to select treatment for patients with metastatic clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC), according to data from the prospective phase 2 OPTIC RCC trial (OPtimal Treatment by Invoking biologic Clusters in Renal Cell Carcinoma) trial (NCT05361720) presented at the 2025 ESMO Congress.1

    The OPTIC trial sought to validate RNAseq-based clusters that were defined using a machine learning model from data collected in the IMmotion 151 trial (NCT0242082).2 In the trial, those with cluster 1/2, indicating an angiogenic tumor, were treated with cabozantinib (Cabometyx) plus nivolumab (Opdivo) and demonstrated deepened clinical outcomes.

    “Selection of patients exhibiting an angiogenic gene expression signature enriches for clinical outcomes to cabozantinib plus nivolumab, including high objective response rate, reduction of tumor burden for all patients, and lack of progressive disease,” Scott, M. Haake, MD, PhD, assistant professor of medicine, Division of Hematology & Oncology at Vanderbilt School of Medicine, said during a presentation of the data.

    What were the results of the OPTIC RCC trial?

    The study met its primary end point with an objective response rate (ORR) of 76% among patients with cluster 1/2 tumors treated with cabozantinib plus nivolumab. Responses included 2 patients with a complete response (8%), 17 with partial responses (68%), 6 with stable disease (24%), and no patients with progressive disease.

    “Of the 6 patients with stable disease, 3 just missed the criteria for objective response, but are very close at 27%, 27%, and 29%,” Haake noted. By RECIST criteria, a partial response is defined as a reduction of 30% or more.

    In addition, 100% of tumors demonstrated tumor burden reduction, with a median reduction of 42% (range, 5%-100%).

    Median follow-up was 11.1 months (range, 0.9-31.5), and as of the presentation, 17 of 27 patients remained on the study.

    Further, the investigators compared gene expression patterns for tumors with the most vs the least tumor shrinkage. Preliminary results demonstrated distinct gene expression patterns in tumors with the most tumor shrinkage, Haake said. “When we look at pathways that include these differentially expressed genes, we see several metabolic pathways are enriched in tumors with the most tumor shrinkage, an increased epithelial transition expression, correlating with decreased tumor shrinkage.”

    He noted that time-to-event end points such as PFS and duration of response will require additional follow-up.

    How was the OPTIC RCC trial conducted?

    In the trial, patients were selected for treatment based on their RNA sequencing-defined cluster. Those with cluster 1/2, defined as angiogenic, received nivolumab/cabozantinib whereas those with cluster 4/5, defined as inflamed, would receive ipilimumab (Yervoy)/nivolumab. “[This allows] us to test the hypothesis that angiogenic tumors can enrich the response to a regimen which contains an anti-angiogenic therapy,” Haake said.

    The cluster 4/5 portion of the study remained open for accrual, and findings were not presented for this group. Those with cluster 3/6/7 were excluded from the trial.

    Patients were eligible for the OPTIC RCC trial if they had an ECOG performance score (PS) of 0 or 1, metastatic ccRCC without prior systemic therapy in any setting, and available tissue for RNA sequencing or cluster prediction.

    ORR served as the primary end point, while secondary end points included progression-free survival (PFS), a depth of response of 80% or more at 6 months, and immune-related adverse events.

    Of the 27 patients included in the analysis, patients were a median age of 68 years (range, 52-86), and the majority were male (56%), White (89%), and had an ECOG PS of 0 (70%). Of note, 41% of patients were in the favorable-risk IMDC prognostic group.

    There were no patients with sarcomatoid histology, and the sites for metastasis were typical of advanced kidney cancer. “However, we should point out that there was a higher proportion of pancreatic adrenal metastases relative to other frontline studies,” Haake added.

    In terms of operational logistics, the investigators improved their speed over the course of the study, optimizing the turnaround for sequencing and data analysis with a consent to cluster assignment from 40 days to 20 days. “The rate-limiting step was typically acquisition of tissue, especially when biopsies or surgical samples were obtained at outside facilities that needed to be shipped to Vanderbilt before submission,” Haake explained.

    Where did the OPTIC RCC trial originate?

    According to Haake, the origins of the OPTIC RCC trial started with groups of clusters defined in the randomized phase 3 IMotion 151 trial which was designed to evaluate atezolizumab plus bevacizumab vs sunitinib in patients with kidney cancer who were not previously treated.

    Of the 7 clusters discovered, grouping similar tumors, cluster 1/2 exhibited a strong angiogenic gene expression signature. “Patients in these 2 clusters had favorable PFS to both the control arm and the experimental arm, possibly because both arms contain the potent anti-angiogenic therapy,” he added.

    Meanwhile, cluster 4/5 demonstrated a superior response to the immune checkpoint inhibitor-containing experimental arm.

    “[Therefore], the goal [of the OPTIC RCC trial] was to take these tumor clusters or gene expression signatures that retrospectively correlated with drug response and prospectively evaluate their ability to enrich for drug response,” Haake explained. “…We can do this study. We can biopsy metastatic tumors. We can isolate their mRNA, sequence them, assign them clusters and treat them according to those cluster assignments, all within the context of an interventional clinical trial.”

    References

    1. Haake SM, Beckermann K, Barata P, et al. Efficacy of Cabozantinib and Nivolumab in Cluster 1/2 Metastatic Clear Cell Renal Cell Carcinoma: Results from OPTIC RCC, a phase II trial of a novel RNAseq-based biomarker. Presented at: 2025 ESMO Annual Congress; October 17-21, 2025; Berlin, Germany. Abstract 2591O.
    2. Motzer RJ, Powles T, Atkins MB, et al. Final Overall Survival and Molecular Analysis in IMmotion151, a Phase 3 Trial Comparing Atezolizumab Plus Bevacizumab vs Sunitinib in Patients With Previously Untreated Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma. JAMA Oncol. 2021;8(2):1–6. doi:10.1001/jamaoncol.2021.5981.

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  • Assessing Airbnb (ABNB) Valuation as Shares Rebound from Recent Lows

    Assessing Airbnb (ABNB) Valuation as Shares Rebound from Recent Lows

    Airbnb (ABNB) shares climbed nearly 2.5% today, reflecting renewed investor interest as the stock continues to recover from its dip over the past 3 months. Recent trading momentum highlights shifting sentiment in the travel platform.

    See our latest analysis for Airbnb.

    Airbnb’s share price rebound this week follows several choppy months, with the stock still trailing its year-ago levels as shown by a 1-year total shareholder return of -7.7%. However, positive price action lately suggests market sentiment may be turning, as investors start focusing on the company’s long-term growth prospects.

    If renewed momentum in travel platforms has you exploring fresh ideas, now is a great time to see what’s happening among fast-growing companies with strong insider backing via our fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

    But with Airbnb’s stock still trading about 10% below analyst price targets and a healthy gap to some estimates of intrinsic value, investors are left pondering whether this is the start of a bargain opportunity or if the market has already accounted for brighter days ahead.

    The most widely discussed narrative on Airbnb puts its fair value well above the current share price, highlighting a major disconnect between the stock’s recovery and what long-term believers see as its true growth potential. According to TickerTickle, this valuation is anchored in big bets on the product evolution and future scale outside the US.

    They have launched long-term rentals, made over 500 product improvements, and are going all in on AI to make the platform smoother. It is easier now to find the right stay without scrolling for 20 minutes.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Want to know why this fair value projection stands out? The hook is a turbocharged revenue mix and future margins that would put Airbnb in the top tier of consumer tech names. Only the full narrative reveals which aggressive forecasts are behind these sky-high expectations.

    Result: Fair Value of $163.75 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

    However, regulatory pressure in Europe and unresolved tax disputes in the US remain risks that could quickly alter the upside argument for Airbnb investors.

    Find out about the key risks to this Airbnb narrative.

    Looking from a market ratios perspective, Airbnb trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.4x, which is higher than the US Hospitality industry average of 23.5x, but just below its peer group average of 31x. The fair ratio based on historical patterns comes in at 30.9x, indicating that the stock is actually near where the market could expect it to settle over time. This gap raises the question: are current expectations too high, or is there further room for upside if Airbnb outperforms?

    See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

    NasdaqGS:ABNB PE Ratio as at Oct 2025

    If you want to challenge these views or follow your own research path, crafting your take on Airbnb’s story is easy and takes just a few minutes. Do it your way.

    A great starting point for your Airbnb research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

    Don’t let your next big opportunity slip away. Take the lead and spot market-shifting winners with Simply Wall Street’s powerful stock screener tools.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

    Companies discussed in this article include ABNB.

    Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

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  • Meet the AI Stock That’s Crushing Nvidia and Palantir in 2025

    Meet the AI Stock That’s Crushing Nvidia and Palantir in 2025

    • Nvidia and Palantir have climbed in the double and triple digits this year as investors pile into artificial intelligence (AI) leaders.

    • This younger player is active in a new and exciting space that’s offering AI customers exactly what they need.

    • 10 stocks we like better than Nebius Group ›

    Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) have been two stocks investors could count on for outsized gains over the past few years — and that continues as they both head for increases of more than 30% and about 130%, respectively, this year. This is thanks to the companies’ strengths in the artificial intelligence (AI) market.

    Nvidia designs the world’s most sought-after AI chip, one that fuels the most essential AI tasks. And Palantir helps customers immediately apply AI to their operations and generate game-changing results. These companies already are benefiting from AI, and so are their customers.

    In spite of these successes, Nvidia and Palantir haven’t been scoring the biggest gains among AI players in recent months. In fact, one stock in particular has left these two market giants in the dust when it comes to stock performance. Let’s meet the AI stock that’s crushing Nvidia and Palantir in 2025.

     

    I might surprise you when I say this player, in its current form, didn’t even exist about a year and a half ago. It formed when Russian tech company Yandex sold off its Russian businesses last summer and reorganized under a new name with a headquarters in Amsterdam. I’m talking about Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS), a stock that’s jumped more than 300% this year.

    Nebius soared into the spotlight, offering something in high demand right now — and likely this demand will continue in the years to come. The company provides neocloud services, meaning it offers compute for AI workloads as well as a selection of managed services for customers.

    This is extremely practical, as it means customers don’t have to buy their own high-powered graphics processing units (GPUs) and instead can go to Nebius to rent access to these chips. And it also saves customers time, as they don’t have to wait to ramp up a facility, but instead can take advantage of infrastructure that already exists.

    Of course, Nebius competes with cloud giants such as Alphabet‘s Google Cloud and Microsoft Azure — customers can run AI workloads through those services too. But major cloud service providers offer a wide range of services beyond AI, while Nebius has focused on specifically serving the AI customer. This specialization could help it fine-tune its offering to the needs of customers and stand out. On top of this, demand for AI capacity is so strong that there is room for the major cloud providers and up-and-coming neocloud players like Nebius all to generate growth.

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  • Blackstone says Wall Street is complacent about AI disruption

    Blackstone says Wall Street is complacent about AI disruption

    Stay informed with free updates

    Wall Street investors are underestimating artificial intelligence’s potential to make entire industries obsolete, Blackstone’s president has said, adding that the impact of the technology was now “top of our list” when evaluating deals.

    Jonathan Gray said that understanding AI risks has become a priority for the private capital group when assessing investments, with the technology already upending business models and causing job losses.

    “We’ve told our credit and equity teams: address AI on the first pages of your investment memos,” said Gray at the Financial Times Private Capital Summit in London this week.

    High valuations of lossmaking AI companies, and the circular financial relationships between many key players, have fuelled concerns about a bubble in the sector.

    Gray said investor exuberance meant it was inevitable that there would be some misallocation of capital to AI companies — “think of Pets.com in 2000”. But he added that the scale of the technology’s impact meant investors may still underestimate its potential to crush entire industries.

    FT interview with Blackstone’s Jonathan Gray

    Conducted by Arash Massoudi at Private Capital Summit in London.

    Some content could not load. Check your internet connection or browser settings.

    “People say, ‘This smells like a bubble,’” but they’re not asking: ‘What about legacy businesses that could be massively disrupted?’” said Gray.

    “If you think about rules-based businesses — legal, accounting, transaction and claims processing — this is going to be profound,” he added.

    Gray compared the looming disruption to New York City taxi licences, which grew almost 500-fold in value over many decades, before swiftly losing 80 per cent of their value when ride-hailing apps Uber and Lyft disrupted the market.

    Gray said Blackstone had elevated AI risks to the “top of our list” when assessing the potential downside of investments.

    “We’re spending enormous time on both new deals and, importantly, our existing portfolio: what does AI mean for enterprise software, for service businesses handling data and for rules-based work?” he added.

    The rise of AI algorithms created by OpenAI, Microsoft and Google is already disrupting white-collar sectors such as accounting, consulting and law, and threatening business models of companies such as advertisers, publishers and software groups.

    Machine -learning technology is also threatening manual jobs in areas such as manufacturing. 

    Blackstone, an early and prolific investor in the data centres used by OpenAI and others to power large language models, has been assessing AI risks for years. It has recently decided not to buy some software and call-centre companies seen as vulnerable to AI-related risks, according to people briefed on the matter.

    Blackstone has also invested heavily in utility companies that power data centres, even repositioning some of its industrial portfolio companies such as Copeland and Legence to sell products to providers of AI infrastructure.

    Despite its evaluation of AI-related risks, some of Blackstone’s investments are exposed to the impact of technological change. Its private credit business has lent billions of dollars to enterprise software companies, including Medallia, that risk losing customers to AI-driven competitors.

    Gray said that while AI would create some negative economic disruptions, the technology could also yield underestimated productivity benefits for large corporations and the global economy, creating trillions of dollars in new corporate wealth. So he has challenged dealmakers to also not miss AI-related opportunities.

    “We’re forcing the conversation. We don’t claim to know exactly how it all plays out. But if every deal team has to analyse AI impact then it’s the number-one topic in the room,” he said. 

    “Acting like it’s business as usual would be a mistake,” he added.

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  • Gold prices are so high, even central banks are feeling FOMO

    Gold prices are so high, even central banks are feeling FOMO

    By Myra P. Saefong

    Central banks view gold as a ‘key, liquid component of their reserves’

    Germany’s central bank, the Deutsche Bundesbank, holds the world’s second-largest gold reserves, behind the U.S.

    Gold prices at record highs sounds like a broken record, but central banks have continued to buy more than they’re selling, even with prices for the precious metal at their highest levels ever.

    “Central banks continue to be consistent and strategic buyers of gold, even at record prices, because of the role it plays in strengthening their reserve portfolios,” Joe Cavatoni, senior market strategist at the World Gold Council, said in comments sent to MarketWatch Friday.

    “For many, this is about diversification, stability, and long-term confidence in their holdings,” he said.

    “In an environment of persistent geopolitical uncertainty, shifting interest rate expectations, and questions around the reliability of fiat currencies such as the U.S. dollar, gold remains a trusted store of value that’s independent of any one government or financial system,” Cavatoni said. “We’re seeing a structural, not cyclical, change in how central banks view gold – as a key, liquid component of their reserves.”

    Central banks around the world added 19 metric tons to their global reserves in August, according to data from the World Gold Council dated Oct. 3. That followed a month-to-month fall in July.

    Gold futures have climbed by nearly 60% this year, with prices on Comex notching record-high settlements 48 times so far in 2025, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Gold for December delivery (GC00) (GCZ25) last marked a record finish of $4,304.60 an ounce on Oct. 16.

    The record-high price “likely remains a constraint on the level of buying by central banks,” but the recent moderation in buying “does not necessarily signal that central banks as a whole are losing interest in gold,” the WGC said in its report.

    Central-bank purchases of gold rose in August.

    Strength in central-bank purchases “proves that central banks aren’t immune to FOMO,” which refers to the fear of missing out, Adrian Ash, director of research at BullionVault, told MarketWatch on Friday.

    Strength in central-bank gold purchases ‘proves that central banks aren’t immune to FOMO … [and] confirms that the bid from sovereign states remains keen, even at new record highs’ in gold prices.Adrian Ash, BullionVault

    “Why wait for gold prices to double?” he said. The central-bank purchases also confirm that the “bid from sovereign states remains keen, even at new record highs” in prices for the precious metal.

    Read: Gold is the hot topic at the IMF and World Bank meetings. Could that help put a lid on prices?

    As of October, the U.S. is the country with the largest gold reserves, according to BestBrokers, an investment-research platform, citing data from the WGC and International Monetary Fund.

    The U.S. holds about 8,133.5 metric tons of gold in its reserves.

    The U.S. holds about 8,133 metric tons of gold stored at U.S. Mint locations in Fort Knox, Kan.; West Point, N.Y.; and Denver, as well as a small amount in the vaults at the New York Federal Reserve, according to Edmund Moy, a former director of the U.S. Mint, which is part of the Treasury Department. He noted that the U.S. Mint’s director has custodial responsibility over U.S. gold reserves.

    Moy, who is now senior IRA strategist for precious-metals distributor U.S. Money Reserve, said the U.S. holds the most gold reserves as a direct result of U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt requiring Americans to turn in their gold coins to the federal government starting in 1933. It’s also a result of foreign nations paying in gold for American products during World War II, he said.

    At one point many years ago, America’s gold reserves stood at more than 20,000 metric tons and were used to back the U.S. dollar, but in the early 1970s, countries began to suspect that the U.S. had printed more dollars than it could back with gold, which started a run on redeeming dollars for gold, Moy said. President Richard Nixon stopped those redemptions in 1972, and U.S. gold reserves have remained stable at around 8,113 tons, he said.

    In August, the biggest central-bank gold buyer was the National Bank of Kazakhstan, and the National Bank of Bulgaria and Central Reserve Bank of El Salvador also jointed the buyers list, according to the WGC.

    The National Bank of Poland has been the largest purchaser year to date, and it “reaffirmed its commitment to gold by increasing its target share,” the WGC said.

    Poland, Turkey and the Czech Republic have added to their gold reserves for at least 24 months straight, said Moy. China and India have also been consistently building up their gold reserves – “both to strengthen their currencies and to reduce their dependence on the [U.S. dollar],” he said.

    Central banks continue to buy gold, even at record-high prices, primarily because they want to reduce their exposure to the U.S. dollar given their “concerns over the deteriorating U.S. fiscal condition and increasing economic uncertainty and [the] potential impact on their dollar holdings,” Moy said.

    ‘Central banks will continue to be big players in the gold market for the foreseeable future.’Edmund Moy, U.S. Money Reserve

    Some countries, such as Russia, want to have some of their reserves in a “sanction-proof asset,” he said, and others want to reduce their dependence on the U.S. dollar while “exploring alternatives” to displace the dollar as a reserve currency.

    “Increasing gold reserves will improve their positioning” in whatever direction those alternatives take, Moy said. “Central banks will continue to be big players in the gold market for the foreseeable future.”

    -Myra P. Saefong

    This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

    (END) Dow Jones Newswires

    10-18-25 0700ET

    Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

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  • Swedish Death Cleaning, but for Your Digital Life

    Swedish Death Cleaning, but for Your Digital Life

    What do you want people to have now? Why wait for death to share things you want to share? For example, you might want to give people access to photos and videos. You might also share important documents that are actively in use—health files, children’s immunization records, pet health records—with one or two trusted people.

    The best cloud storage services let you securely share files and folders. Keeping documents in cloud storage also means they’re backed up, so copies of your documents are safe in the event of a fire, flood, theft, or local data loss.

    What do you want a trusted person to access quickly and easily if you’re incapacitated or die unexpectedly? One of my fears is that I’ll be hospitalized and no one will remember that I prepared and signed an advance health care directive. If you don’t have a lawyer who holds your important documents (and maybe even if you do), make sure at least two people can access digital copies of them quickly and easily.

    Just as with other important documents, you can share these files securely via cloud storage, but put them into a clearly labeled folder, like _IMPORTANT FILES. Using an underscore ensures that the folder appears at the top of the list when files are sorted alphabetically. Because these documents contain sensitive information, make sure you review the security settings when you enable sharing so that only your trusted persons can access them.

    Examples of papers to include are your will, power of attorney form, advance health directive, deeds and titles, certificates (birth, marriage, divorce), and identity papers (Social Security cards, naturalization papers).

    What do you want people to have only after you die? You might not want your sibling or your spouse to have the keys to your email or your Instagram account now, but do you want them to post on your behalf after you die? Do you want them to permanently delete any accounts once you’re gone?

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  • Friend or foe? The China challenge on the Moray Firth

    Friend or foe? The China challenge on the Moray Firth

    Douglas FraserBusiness/economy editor, Scotland

    Getty Images A wind farm off the coast of Aberdeen Three wind turbines on the water spin, while a small ferry sails past nearby Getty Images

    The offer from Ming Yang would see parts built for wind turbines

    Accepting the offer to build parts for wind turbines looks like a no-brainer.

    About £1.5bn of investment, 1500 jobs – perhaps even double that – and at last, a sign that the renewables energy bonanza is going to offer some lasting benefit to Scottish manufacturing.

    Any government – Westminster, Holyrood or Highland Council – would normally be delighted by the plan for a factory making turbine blades of more than 100m in length as well as nacelles, the gearboxes weighing hundreds of tonnes which sit atop turbine towers.

    But this is not a normal offer. It comes from Ming Yang, one of the biggest industrial players in China’s rapid expansion of offshore wind, as that Asian giant has powered past the UK’s global lead.

    The company wants to locate production somewhere it can service the European market.

    Getty Images Workers in hard hats watch on as a wind turbine is loaded onto a large lorryGetty Images

    China is rapidly expanding its offshore wind market, seen here at the Dongying offshore wind power equipment industrial park in Shandong province

    Ardersier, to the east of Inverness, is a strong contender and favoured option.

    Under the ownership of a company set up to develop it, Haventus, it has 350 acres of space being developed with £400m of investment, to be ready for the boom in offshore renewables expected by the end of this decade.

    That’s the area of roughly 180 football pitches. Ardersier is the biggest industrial facility of its kind in Europe. It is included in the boundaries of the Cromarty Firth and Inverness Green Freeport, meaning generous tax breaks to attract investment.

    Around 100 acres is being prepared as lay-down space for equipment being assembled for float-out, so far most of it imported into the UK.

    The remaining 250 acres requires manufacturing to make that investment viable, a large chunk of it publicly-funded. Ming Yang would take up most of that space.

    Spy trial

    That’s if it gets the go-ahead. The company put out an unusual announcement of its plans. Usually, it would be announced once the deal was done.

    But the announcement made it clear that the hurdle it still has to clear is the UK government.

    The Chinese industrial giant was choosing to put pressure on Whitehall ministers, so that everyone knows how big the investment could be and what they could jeopardise.

    When it published the statement, late on Friday 10 October, it may have known some of what was to follow over the subsequent week, as UK politics became convulsed by one of the toughest questions facing Whitehall – of how to to handle China.

    The collapse of a planned trial of two British citizens, one from Edinburgh, accused of spying for China, had lit the fuse in September for a row that was to blow up at Westminster.

    Opposition figures were demanding to know why the Crown Prosecution Service had not received the co-operation of the UK government in providing a sufficiently strong witness statement about the risk China poses to national and economic security.

    Three witness statements provided to the prosecutors were published this week, which went some way to explaining that, yes, China is a significant threat to UK interests and capable of a large-scale espionage operation.

    Imperial powers

    But they also highlighted the dilemma at the heart of a key element of UK foreign policy.

    China is an important trading and investment partner. The UK has been courting China for decades as it became the world’s manufacturing powerhouse, and now emerges as a technological superpower.

    UK ministers have pushed at the trade doors to boost British exports of luxury goods, from cars to whisky, and they want to do far more in the service sector.

    But meanwhile, there’s a wariness, as China’s international clout has grown, and it has become ever more brazen in pursuing its national interest.

    Maybe it helps to be a former imperial power in recognising the rise of a new one.

    In much of the developing world, China’s Belt and Road initiative with developing nations has sought to ensure it has the raw materials, the growing markets and the dependent creditors with which to secure its economic interests and extend its influence.

    With developing countries, it has come to dominate some areas of exported manufacturing such as solar power, as much as it dominates toy and electronics production. With Australia, it has played hardball in securing raw materials and energy.

    Getty Images Donald Trump and Xi Jinping shake hands on a stage in front of large US and Chinese flags Getty Images

    Animosity has grown between the US and China over tariffs

    It has refused to let the US, under Donald Trump, dictate the terms of a new trading relationship, hitting back with tariffs at least as fiercely as the US president imposed them.

    China has found a vulnerable spot in America’s trading game, by curtailing export and the use of rare earths, necessary for numerous manufacturing processes.

    That is hitting the US’s closer allies too. China has the bulk of rare earth extraction, as well as the dirty processes of refining them, which other countries have been unwilling to host.

    Software sabotage

    This is similar to the way in which the US has used its technological lead to require other countries to curtail trade with China.

    It banned the use of US technology in supply chains that involved the telecoms giant Huawei. Under Joe Biden’s presidency, which became increasingly negative about China, as did the US Congress, the UK’s manufacturers were among those forced to fall into line.

    That is the outline of a complex and troubled trading relationship. The darker recesses of the relationship are also complex and wide-ranging.

    In the most recent of the witness statements to the prosecutors of the now-collapsed spy trial, deputy National Security Adviser Matthew Collins said China is capable of carrying out large-scale espionage against the UK, and that China represents “the biggest state-based threat to the country’s economic security”.

    Huawei’s presence in microchips and software within Britain’s computer systems and particularly its telecoms was seen as putting the UK under high vulnerability to surveillance, showing where people and their mobile devices are, and what they’re communicating, as well as offering ways of disabling them.

    There are concerns that TikTok’s technology could do the same, bringing a bar on its use on government mobile phones.

    Military research

    One of the main attractions of the UK to China is its world-class university system. It attracts tens of thousands of Chinese students to study in the UK.

    The dependence on Chinese fee income carries the threat of destabilising some institutions, including the more prestigious Scottish ones.

    Getty Images Glasgow University's main building, pictured from the courtyard look towards the turrets and windows on one side of the gothic building. A tree is shedding orange leaves on the grassGetty Images

    Several Scottish universities have Confucius Institutes, including the University of Glasgow

    The threat is more obvious in influence within universities, where Chinese money has funded Confucius Institutes as a focus for links. These are not only cultural, but in sensitive technology research.

    Speaking to the BBC this week, Nigel Inkster of the International Institute for Strategic Studies and formerly with the spy agency MI6, there are “a lot of cases of joint research which have clear military-defence applications, where I would have thought it would occur to those engaged to ask questions about the desirability of continuing with such activities”.

    His assessment is that the Chinese government will do whatever it takes, wherever it chooses, to protect its national interests.

    He argues that the ideology behind Beijing’s Communist Party rule means that paranoia about threats to its political dominance is hardwired and drives it to extensive surveillance.

    Steely sabotage

    A different threat emerged earlier this year with the Chinese owners of the Scunthorpe steel works, apparently running down supplies to blast furnaces close to the point where they could not be re-started.

    That brought MPs scurrying back to Westminster on a very rare Saturday sitting. They passed emergency legislation which effectively took control of the plant out of Chinese hands, asserting its importance as a strategic industrial asset that needs to be protected.

    Without it, Britain would become more dependent on imported steel, with Chinese steelmakers eager to sell Britain its lower-priced surplus.

    Getty Images Grangemouth oil refinery stands in front of the Clyde river with mountains in the background. The refinery has several tall towers, with one emitting flamesGetty Images

    Grangemouth ceased processing crude oil in April, leading to the direct loss of about 400 jobs

    A decision made to close Grangemouth oil refinery earlier this year was taken by a company half-owned by PetroChina.

    If there were strategic concerns raised within government, we didn’t hear them at the time. Instead, Petroineos was allowed to shut it down, and the government’s role was to put money into the transition of skills and the Forth Valley site for new sources of energy.

    And that brings us back to Ming Yang – not a state-owned firm, but all such private companies are subject to the requirement that they act in the Chinese government’s interests.

    The threat of mass surveillance, as with Huawei, is hardly matched by the building of turbine blades on the coast of the Moray Firth.

    So why might that £1.5bn investment cause concern to UK authorities, including the security services? Is it any worse than the 16-year Chinese ownership of a cashmere-spinning firm near Kinross?

    Self-destruct

    One reason is in industrial policy – the risk that cheaper Chinese production of turbines could undermine the growth of rival companies and countries, and grab a worryingly high share of the market. And turbine manufacture makes use of rare earths.

    That has been happening with electric vehicles. BYD vehicles claimed more than one in 30 UK car sales last month, almost ten times more than September last year.

    When Alexander Dennis announced closure of its Falkirk bus-building plant earlier this year, it cited the competition from China, taking the country’s share of UK bus sales from a tenth to more than a third within only two years.

    The other threat is in the software through which wind turbines are controlled, and the software which connects wind farms to the National Grid.

    It is possible, and not seen by China and energy experts as far-fetched, that software code could be inserted that gives the manufacturer the ability to disable the turbines.

    One specialist suggested that interference in those turbine controls could put such strains on the structures in very high winds that they could destroy themselves. And as the mainstay of Britain’s power production, that would be a vital economic asset at risk of compromise.

    ‘The Tinder of energy’

    A less dramatic inroad into the British energy system could be achieved through a new partnership between Ming Yang and Octopus Energy, biggest retailer of energy to British households and with a presence in six other retail markets.

    Their recently-signed Memorandum of Understanding begins to explore ways in which the two companies could collaborate.

    Getty Images An overhead view of the wind turbines of the Burradale wind farm, outside Lerwick in the Shetland Islands, north of the Scottish Mainland Getty Images

    Octopus wants to cut household bills. It’s investing in a rapid expansion of renewable power.

    It has an innovative way of identifying places to build onshore turbines. ‘Winder’ is an app described as ‘the Tinder of energy’ – matching communities where people want a local supply of green energy with those who want to develop wind farms.

    Ming Yang could be the supplier of the equipment, at lower prices than current suppliers, though Octopus insists the relationship would not be exclusive.

    High-level, high-stakes

    The Ming Yang factory planned for Ardersier looks focussed instead on offshore wind farms, and particularly floating turbines.

    Asked about the powers to block that plan, the UK government’s business department issued a terse two-sentence reply:

    “This is one of a number of companies that wants to invest in the UK. Any decisions made will be consistent with our national security.”

    It’s rare that the Scottish government misses an opportunity to call for more powers.

    In this case, perhaps it can see the dilemma it too would face, when a spokesman says: “We recognise that Ming Yang’s investment is subject to a decision from the UK government and look forward to the outcome of that process.”

    PA Media Director General of MI5 Sir Ken McCallum delivers the annual Director General's Speech at Thames House in front of an audiencePA Media

    Sir Ken McCallum, the head of MI5, recently warned that Chinese state operatives present a daily national security threat to the UK

    So what would be consistent with “our national security”? How does the UK government balance such concerns with the eagerness to attract foreign investment?

    It won’t say. Asked this week what the government’s position on China is, Dame Emily Thornberry, Labour chair of the Commons foreign affairs committee, said that she does not know because the government won’t say.

    Both Conservative and Labour ministers have avoided spelling out the dilemma because of the risk of causing offence in China and sparking a hostile response from Beijing.

    For that reason, a vital piece of Scotland’s energy transition hangs in the balance, at the mercy of high-level and high-stakes geopolitics.

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  • Low Dose Pembrolizumab Combined With Chemotherapy Improves Pathologic Complete Response in Triple Negative Breast Cancer

    Low Dose Pembrolizumab Combined With Chemotherapy Improves Pathologic Complete Response in Triple Negative Breast Cancer

    Authors-Atul Batra, Sameer Bakhshi, Akash Kumar , Adhip Arora, Hemavathi Baskarane, Ajay Gogia ,Kaushal Kalra, Ashutosh Mishra, Suhani Suhani , Jyoti Sharma, Rajinder Parshad , Vuthaluru Seenu , Krishna Asuri, Virinder Kumar Bansal, Piyush Ranjan, Babul Bansal, Brijesh Kumar 

    Triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) is an aggressive subtype with limited targeted treatment options. Achieving a pathologic complete response (pCR) after neoadjuvant chemotherapy strongly predicts improved survival outcomes. The addition of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs), such as pembrolizumab, to standard chemotherapy has significantly increased pCR and event-free survival rates, as shown in the KEYNOTE-522 trial. However, access to full-dose pembrolizumab remains limited in many low- and middle-income countries due to cost. Exploring low-dose pembrolizumab (LDPm) offers a promising strategy to maintain efficacy while reducing toxicity and improving affordability.

    Design and Methods

    This was a phase II, open-label, randomized controlled trial conducted at a single tertiary cancer center in New Delhi, India. The study enrolled patients with untreated stage II–III triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) who had not received any prior systemic therapy. Eligible participants were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to one of two treatment arms.

    The experimental arm received standard neoadjuvant chemotherapy consisting of four cycles of dose-dense doxorubicin and cyclophosphamide, followed by four cycles of dose-dense paclitaxel, in combination with low-dose pembrolizumab (50 mg every six weeks for three doses). The control arm received the same neoadjuvant chemotherapy regimen without pembrolizumab.

    The primary endpoint of the trial was the pathologic complete response (pCR) rate in the intention-to-treat (ITT)population. Secondary objectives included evaluating pCR among patients who underwent surgery, assessing safety profiles, and exploring other clinical and biological outcomes relevant to treatment efficacy and tolerability.

    Results

    A total of 157 patients were enrolled in the study, with 78 assigned to the low-dose pembrolizumab (LDPm) arm and 79 to the control arm. Among them, 152 patients successfully completed neoadjuvant therapy and underwent surgery.In the modified intention-to-treat population, the pathologic complete response (pCR) rate was 53.8% (42 of 78 patients) in the LDPm group compared with 40.5% (32 of 79 patients) in the control group. This corresponds to an absolute improvement of 13.3% (one-sided P = 0.047).

    When the analysis was limited to patients who underwent surgery, the pCR rate remained higher with LDPm—56.7% versus 41.0% in the control arm, showing an absolute difference of 15.7% (one-sided P = 0.031). Regarding safety, grade 3 or higher adverse events occurred in 50% of patients in the experimental arm and 59.5% in the control arm, indicating comparable toxicity between the two groups. However, there was one treatment-related death in the pembrolizumab group, attributed to toxic epidermal necrolysis.

    Baseline characteristics such as age, tumor stage, nodal status, and menopausal status were well balanced between both treatment arms, ensuring comparability of the study groups.

    Conclusions

    • The addition of low-dose pembrolizumab resulted in a numerically higher pCR rate (absolute ~13–16 %) compared with chemotherapy alone.
    • The magnitude of the increase is in the same ballpark as what has been observed with full-dose pembrolizumab in prior trials (e.g. KEYNOTE-522 showed ~13.6 % pCR increment)
    • Safety appears broadly acceptable, though serious immune-related toxicity (though rare) remains a concern.
    • In resource-constrained settings where standard-dose pembrolizumab is inaccessible, a low-dose alternative might represent a pragmatic option to improve outcomes in TNBC.

    You can read the full abstract here

     

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