Category: 3. Business

This article was first published in The Business Times on October 9, 2025. It was co-authored with Julia Bingler, Fellow at the Council on Economic Policies.

Authorities must revise capital frameworks and integrate resilience into monetary operations to tackle challenges

In just the last few months, novel risks have crystallized across ASEAN+3.

Grab merchants in Singapore began accepting stablecoin payments; Typhoon Bualoi flooded Philippine and Vietnamese ports and factories, paralyzing entire provinces; and US tariff increases are forcing regional economies to recalibrate supply chains.

These disruptions share a common thread: traditional economic frameworks cannot keep pace. Digital assets are reshaping monetary systems, social tensions are threatening political and economic stability, climate extremes are disrupting supply chains, and geopolitical shifts are upending trade patterns.

Policymakers must now simultaneously respond swiftly to immediate crises, such as rising living costs, geopolitical pressures and extreme weather events, while steering deeper structural changes involving demographic shifts, digital currencies, artificial intelligence (AI) and the transition to sustainable economies.

The prosperity of ASEAN+3 economies–the 10 Southeast Asian nations plus China (including Hong Kong), Japan and South Korea–hinges on whether policymakers, central banks and financial supervisors can navigate an increasingly complex landscape of novel risks that cut across food security, labor markets and infrastructure resilience, potentially undermining economic welfare and financial stability.

The rising likelihood of compound shocks adds complexity. But if tackled strategically, such policies can become catalysts for sustainable prosperity.

New risks require new approaches

Novel risks are not simply variations of known shocks. Most are cross-border, systemic and fraught with deep uncertainties, with a high likelihood of materializing concurrently.

Because they challenge conventional governance and risk management approaches, these risks require more adaptive and targeted instruments to safeguard financial stability, as well as to ensure price stability and sustainable long-term prosperity.

Conventional financial risk assessment models based on historical data and unrealistic assumptions cannot capture novel risks appropriately. Backward-looking stress testing is increasingly unviable. By their nature, these are risks that economies have not faced before, making forward-looking risk management and analysis essential.

Global systemic challenges at this level cannot be hedged or diversified away. When they crystallize, there will be wide cross-border implications.

Novel risks also put monetary policy under pressure. Stablecoins and climate change weaken monetary transmission channels and exacerbate existing vulnerabilities.

While fully pegged stablecoins promote financial inclusion for the under-banked and bridge traditional finance with the digital economy, they also amplify currency devaluation and weaken central banks’ ability to set monetary policy in line with domestic economic conditions. They could trigger capital flow volatility, liquidity shortfalls, and sudden devaluations that wipe out savings.

Climate change, meanwhile, will damage productive capacity, alter investment patterns and create inflationary pressures through supply shocks.

Financial authorities must step up

Finance ministers, central bankers and financial supervisors need new approaches to address these challenges.

Price and financial stability must now take into account forces that threaten stability beyond traditional business cycles. Without such adaptation, economic and financial governance frameworks risk losing their effectiveness.

Novel risks demand strategically recalibrated monetary policy, resilience-focused financial regulation and forward-looking supervision. Policymakers, central banks and financial regulators already possess powerful tools that – if deployed early and strategically – can help financial markets navigate these risks more effectively.

Several ASEAN+3 central banks are already leading the way with initiatives to manage the digitalization of financial services, strengthen regional payment systems, develop human capital, promote financial inclusion and support the transition to climate-resilient economies.

The Bank of Korea has created a virtual asset committee to monitor crypto developments and support legislation; the Bank of Thailand has completed consultation on its AI risk management policy; and the Monetary Authority of Singapore is developing a generative AI risk framework through Project MindForge. Japan has amended the Payment Services Act to introduce stablecoin licensing requirements, and Bank Negara Malaysia has launched a Climate Finance Innovation Lab while integrating climate risks into supervision.

However, these initiatives remain fragmented and often modest in scale relative to the magnitude of the risks ahead. The time has come to scale up, systematize the implementation of these measures and regionalize them.

Supervisors and regulators need to revise capital adequacy frameworks to reflect novel risks, and issue explicit guidance on how institutions must incorporate them into strategies.

Disclosures must deliver decision-useful, forward-looking information. Systemic capital buffers need calibration to reflect the likelihood of risks materializing simultaneously. Regional collaboration will be critical to avoid regulatory arbitrage and fragmentation.

For monetary policy, central banks need to integrate resilience directly into refinancing operations and asset purchase programs. They must reflect novel risks in collateral frameworks and balance sheet management, including foreign reserve holdings.

Regional cooperation essential

ASEAN+3, as a region of diverse economies bound by deep interdependence, faces unique challenges.

Risk spillovers are inevitable, and no single nation’s measures will suffice. A prolonged heatwave in one country disrupts food supply chains in another. Capital mispriced in one jurisdiction creates vulnerabilities across the regional financial system. A rapid shift to US dollar stablecoins could weaken monetary policy effectiveness and create sudden liquidity shortfalls.

To deal with these risks, both individually and simultaneously, the region must monitor developments, meet regularly to coordinate policy actions, and develop internal capacity to understand and manage them.

By pooling expertise as well as developing common standards and interoperable regulatory frameworks, ASEAN+3 policymakers can transform a patchwork of responses into a regional architecture of resilience.

Finance ministries and central banks have long been the guardians of economic and financial stability. In this new age, they must also become architects of resilience and enablers of economic transitions.

Aligning financial supervision and monetary policy with novel risks is not a technocratic exercise. It is a strategic choice that will define whether regional economies can achieve sustained growth, mitigate emerging risks, enhance social welfare, and benefit from climate-resilient prosperity in the decades ahead.

ASEAN+3 can provide an example of global best practice, leading in setting the framework and institutional arrangements necessary to monitor and manage novel risks.

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(Bloomberg) — Asian stocks fell after shares of US regional banks tumbled on rising concerns about lending standards. Government bonds rose and gold was poised for a ninth week of gains.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.8%, with financial companies among the biggest losers. US equity-index futures fell 0.3%, after the underlying gauges dipped Thursday. Contracts indicated European shares were also set for a weaker open. Regional lenders slid in the US after the fallout from the collapse of subprime auto lender Tricolor Holdings spread beyond Wall Street.

As investors positioned for safe havens, gold and silver hit new all-time highs, powered by fears about credit quality in the US economy and heightened American frictions with China. Treasuries extended gains with the two-year yield falling to the lowest level since 2022 and the 10-year yield below 4%. An index of the dollar declined, while the yen strengthened past the 150 against the greenback.

The moves highlighted growing concerns about the US credit market, serving as the clearest evidence of the nervous undercurrents recently plaguing Wall Street, after stocks rallied to record high levels. That’s adding to a list of worries facing investors, including the US government shutdown, fears of an AI bubble and renewed US-China trade tensions.

“This US banking shock is more about market sentiment and liquidity than a systemic credit collapse,” said Dilin Wu, a strategist at Pepperstone Group Ltd. “It’s a good case of global risk aversion at the moment — fundamentals are okay, but fear is dominating the trading desks.”

In other corners of the market, shares in Hong Kong dropped more than 1%, leading losses in the region as tensions with the US continued to weigh on sentiment. Technology shares retreated with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. dropping 1.7% in Taipei trading as traders locked in gains.

The Treasury 10-year yield dropped two basis points to 3.96%, while similar-maturity Australian yields fell four basis points to 4.11%.

Earlier, the S&P Regional Banks Select Industry Index plunged 6.3% on Thursday, its biggest decline since April’s tariff-induced selloff and an echo of the losses that rocked the sector during a crisis in 2023.

Zions Bancorp fell 13% after a $50 million charge-off tied to a California Bank & Trust loan, while Western Alliance Bancorp dropped 11% after revealing exposure to the same borrowers.

Two high-profile collapses in short order — last month’s implosion of auto lender Tricolor and the bankruptcy of auto-parts supplier First Brands Group — have put traders on alert for more bad news waiting in the wings. Asian bank stocks dropped as well.

What Bloomberg strategists say…

Asia stock investors look more inclined to take money off of the table than to make bold positional moves, heading into the event horizon of another weekend of potential geopolitical bumps. The overall lack of conviction is neatly encapsulated so far by gold’s failure to sustain strong moves in either direction.

— Garfield Reynolds, Markets LIV Team Leader. Click here for full analysis.

“It will be creating some cautious pullback, taking risk off the table,” said Vishnu Varathan, head of macro research for Asia ex-Japan at Mizuho Bank. “Investors in Asia may be cautious of exposures or liabilities on the books in Asia that may get hurt.”

In trade news, the White House is poised to ease tariffs on the US auto industry, a move that would deliver a major win for carmakers that have aggressively lobbied to stem the fallout from record-level import duties.

US-China trade tensions are once again emerging as a drag on equities, and the selloff in Asia and emerging markets could overshoot expectations given their stretched valuations, according to Morgan Stanley.

“Recent client marketing in the US indicates seasoned investors are positioning more defensively, seeking quality and yield,” strategists including Jonathan Garner wrote in a note.

Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that the bank will continue normalizing policy if confidence in achieving its economic outlook strengthens — keeping the door open for a near-term interest-rate hike.

Also in Japan, the likelihood of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party forming a new coalition with opposition party Ishin is 50-50, the leader of the smaller party said Friday, as key talks continue ahead of a parliamentary vote on who will lead the nation.

In geopolitical news, President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin agreed to meet in Budapest during a two-hour phone call. The conversation took place a day before Trump’s White House meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

Oil headed for a third weekly decline as investors focused on oversupply and the fallout from renewed US-China trade tensions. Brent was near $61 a barrel as Trump said he would hold a second meeting with Putin, raising the prospect that an increase of barrels from the OPEC+ member will exacerbate a global glut.

Corporate News:

Meta Platforms Inc. is set to seal an almost $30 billion financing package for its data center site in rural Louisiana, marking the final step for the largest private capital deal on record. Apple Inc. is preparing to finally launch a touch-screen version of its Mac computer, reversing course on a stance that dates back to co-founder Steve Jobs. Infosys Ltd. raised the lower end of its forecast for yearly revenue, banking on a revival in spending on technologies such as artificial intelligence. Nintendo Co. has asked suppliers to produce as many as 25 million units of the Switch 2 by the end of March 2026. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. shares drop as much as 2.4% in Taipei, despite the chipmaker raising its revenue outlook on strong AI demand. Some investors are seen taking profits after a run-up in the stock in recent months. Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

S&P 500 futures fell 0.4% as of 12:46 p.m. Tokyo time Nikkei 225 futures (OSE) fell 1.5% Japan’s Topix fell 0.9% Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.8% Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.6% The Shanghai Composite fell 1% Euro Stoxx 50 futures fell 0.8% Currencies

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1710 The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 150.00 per dollar The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.1255 per dollar The Australian dollar fell 0.3% to $0.6465 Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin rose 1% to $109,000.08 Ether rose 2% to $3,928.49 Bonds

The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 3.94% Japan’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 1.625% Australia’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 4.09% Commodities

West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.3% to $57.31 a barrel Spot gold rose 0.7% to $4,355.68 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Winnie Hsu, Mark Cranfield and Abhishek Vishnoi.

©2025 Bloomberg L.P.

Samsung C&T and Samsung Electronics Will Make an Equity Investment of $110 Million Into GRAIL, Subject to Closing Conditions

Samsung C&T Will Drive Commercialization of Galleri in South Korea With Possible Expansion to Japan and Singapore

Samsung Electronics and GRAIL Will Also Explore Potential Strategic and Operational Collaborations

Samsung C&T (SCT), Samsung Electronics (SEC), and GRAIL, Inc. (Nasdaq: GRAL), today announced they have signed a binding Letter of Intent for a strategic collaboration to bring GRAIL’s Galleri^Ⓡ multi-cancer early detection (MCED) test to key Asian markets. SCT and SEC have also agreed to invest $110 million into GRAIL, a healthcare company whose mission is to detect cancer early when it can be cured, at a price of $70.05 per share of common stock.¹

 

“Guided by its commitment to advancing next-generation bio-technologies and improving quality of life, Samsung C&T has continuously invested in innovative companies. The collaboration with GRAIL represents a significant new step—moving beyond investment to a strategic business partnership that provides Samsung with a strong foothold for expanding into the cancer screening field and delivering one of these promising technologies to customers in South Korea and across Asia.” said Jaywoo Kim, Executive Vice President of Life Science Business at Samsung C&T.

 

Subject to final execution of definitive agreements, GRAIL and SCT will work as exclusive partners to commercialize the Galleri test in South Korea, with a possible extension into other Asian geographies, including Japan and Singapore. SCT will undertake key activities to drive adoption of Galleri . Initially, tests will be performed in GRAIL’s clinical laboratory in Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.

 

“We look forward to partnering with Samsung to bring multi-cancer early detection to Asia, beginning in South Korea,” said Sir Harpal Kumar, President, International Business & Biopharma, at GRAIL. “Samsung’s significant equity investment strengthens our balance sheet and provides further cash runway as we advance through key milestones to secure reimbursement for Galleri in the U.S. and key international markets.”

 

In addition, SEC and GRAIL intend to explore potential strategic and operational collaborations such as supporting longitudinal genomic-lifestyle clinical research, and the integration of SEC’s health data platform with GRAIL’s technologies and data.

 

“Our investment in and strategic cooperation with GRAIL is part of our vision to improve the health of billions of people. A potential collaboration with GRAIL could allow for the integration of our AI, our digital care platform, and device ecosystem with GRAIL’s clinical genetic data and technology, which could allow us to provide a level of personalization for our users to help them better understand their health,” said Hon Pak, Senior Vice President and Head of Digital Health Team, Mobile eXperience Business, at Samsung Electronics.

 

The terms of the collaborations are set forth in the term sheets between the parties. Definitive agreements will be negotiated in good faith pursuant to the term sheet and are intended to be entered into in early 2026. Commercial operations will begin soon after execution. Within South Korea, and potentially Japan and Singapore, GRAIL will partner with SCT as its sole distributor, subject to certain requirements, and GRAIL’s Galleri test will be the exclusive MCED test distributed by SCT.

 

The investment is subject to execution of the definitive collaboration agreements between the parties, as well as customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals. The investment is expected to close in early 2026.

 

Latham & Watkins served as legal advisor and Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC served as financial advisor to GRAIL. Samsung was advised by Covington & Burling, BKL, and E&Y Han Young (Korea).

 

 

¹ Representing a 10% premium to the 15 day VWAP.

 

 

About Samsung C&T Corporation

Samsung C&T Corporation, a dynamic player in industries ranging from construction, trading, fashion and resorts, is actively expanding its portfolio with strategic investments in the fields of biopharmaceutical and life sciences. Since its investment in Samsung Biologics and Samsung Bioepis, Samsung C&T continues to invest in innovative technologies and businesses within the bio and healthcare sectors, with the goal of contributing to improving the quality of human life.

 

About GRAIL

GRAIL is a healthcare company whose mission is to detect cancer early, when it can be cured. GRAIL is focused on alleviating the global burden of cancer by using the power of next-generation sequencing, population-scale clinical studies, and state-of-the-art machine learning, software, and automation to detect and identify multiple deadly cancer types in earlier stages. GRAIL’s targeted methylation-based platform can support the continuum of care for screening and precision oncology, including multi-cancer early detection in symptomatic patients, risk stratification, minimal residual disease detection, biomarker subtyping, treatment and recurrence monitoring. GRAIL is headquartered in Menlo Park, CA with locations in Washington, D.C., North Carolina, and the United Kingdom.

 

For more information, visit grail.com.

 

About Galleri^®
The Galleri multi-cancer early detection test is a proactive tool to screen for cancer. With a simple blood draw, Galleri can detect more than 50 types of cancer before symptoms appear — when they can be easier to treat and are potentially curable². Galleri is the only available MCED test with demonstrated performance in patients screened for cancer^2,*. The Galleri test doubles the number of cancers detected when added to standard of care cancer screening, and has the lowest false positive rate of any MCED test^1,2,3,4,**. When a cancer signal is found, Galleri provides a cancer signal of origin with high accuracy to help guide an efficient diagnostic work-up^4,5,6. The Galleri test requires a prescription from a licensed healthcare provider and should be used in addition to recommended cancer screenings such as mammography, colonoscopy, prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test, or cervical cancer screening. The Galleri test is recommended for adults with an elevated risk for cancer, such as those aged 50 or older.

 

For more information, visit galleri.com.

 

* The Galleri test performance metrics were derived from the outcomes of an interventional clinical study of patients presenting for screening without clinical suspicion of cancer, a study population that reflects the intended use population.

** Test performance metrics do not represent results of a head-to-head comparative study. Separate studies have different designs, objectives, and participant populations, which limits the ability to draw conclusions about comparative performance.

 

Important Galleri Safety Information
The Galleri test is recommended for use in adults with an elevated risk for cancer, such as those age 50 or older. The test does not detect all cancers and should be used in addition to routine cancer screening tests recommended by a healthcare provider. The Galleri test is intended to detect cancer signals and predict where in the body the cancer signal is located. Use of the test is not recommended in individuals who are pregnant, 21 years old or younger, or undergoing active cancer treatment.
Results should be interpreted by a healthcare provider in the context of medical history, clinical signs, and symptoms. A test result of No Cancer Signal Detected does not rule out cancer. A test result of Cancer Signal Detected requires confirmatory diagnostic evaluation by medically established procedures (e.g., imaging) to confirm cancer.

 

If cancer is not confirmed with further testing, it could mean that cancer is not present or testing was insufficient to detect cancer, including due to the cancer being located in a different part of the body. False positive (a cancer signal detected when cancer is not present) and false negative (a cancer signal not detected when cancer is present) test results do occur. Rx only.

 

Laboratory/Test Information
The GRAIL clinical laboratory is certified under the Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments of 1988.

 

(CLIA) and accredited by the College of American Pathologists. The Galleri test was developed — and its performance characteristics were determined — by GRAIL. The Galleri test has not been cleared or approved by the Food and Drug Administration. The GRAIL clinical laboratory is regulated under CLIA to perform high-complexity testing. The Galleri test is intended for clinical purposes.

 

GRAIL Forward Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements. In some cases, you can identify these statements by forward-looking words such as “aim,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “continue,” “could,” “estimate,” “expect,” “intend,” “may,” “might,” “plan,” “potential,” “predict,” “should,” “would,” or “will,” the negative of these terms, and other comparable terminology. These forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks, uncertainties, and assumptions about us, may include expectations and projections of our ability to negotiate definitive agreements, the closing of the investment, the terms under which we will conduct our collaborations, future potential additional collaborations, our ability to commercialize Galleri in other geographies, success of our collaboration with counterparties, sufficiency of cash on hand to finance our business and anticipated trends in our business.

 

These statements are only predictions based on our current expectations and projections about future events and trends. There are important factors that could cause our actual results, level of activity, performance, or achievements to differ materially and adversely from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements, including those factors and numerous associated risks discussed under the sections entitled “Risk Factors” in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the period ended December 31, 2024 and in our Quarterly Report on [Form 10-Q for the period ended June 30, 2025] (the “Form 10-Q”). Moreover, we operate in a dynamic and rapidly changing environment. New risks emerge from time to time. It is not possible for our management to predict all risks, nor can we assess the impact of all factors on our business or the extent to which any factor, or combination of factors, may cause actual results, level of activity, performance, or achievements to differ materially and adversely from those contained in any forward-looking statements we may make.

 

Forward-looking statements relate to the future and, accordingly, are subject to inherent uncertainties, risks, and changes in circumstances that are difficult to predict and many of which are outside of our control. Although we believe the expectations and projections expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot guarantee future results, level of activity, performance, or achievements. Our actual results, financial condition and success in our business strategies and operations may differ materially from those indicated in the forward-looking statements. Except to the extent required by law, we undertake no obligation to update any of these forward-looking statements after the date of this press release to conform our prior statements to actual results or revised expectations or to reflect new information or the occurrence of unanticipated events.

 

References:

1. Nabavizadeh N, et al. Safety and Performance of a Multi-Cancer Early Detection (MCED) Test in an Intended-Use Population: Initial Results from the Registrational PATHFINDER 2 Study. Proffered Presentation Presented at: European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) Annual Meeting; October 17-21, 2025; Berlin, Germany.
2. Klein EA, Richards D, Cohn A, et al. Clinical validation of a targeted methylation-based multi-cancer early detection test using an independent validation set. Ann Oncol. 2021 Sep;32(9):1167-77. doi: 10.1016/j.annonc.2021.05.806
3. GRAIL, Inc. False positive rate. [Data on file: GR-2025-0256]
4. Schrag D, Beer TM, McDonnell CH, et al. Blood-based tests for multi-cancer early detection (PATHFINDER): a prospective cohort study. Lancet. 2023;402:1251-1260. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(23)01700-2
5. GRAIL, Inc. Enhanced Cancer Signal Origin prediction. [Data on file: VV-TMF-59592]
6. Hackshaw A, et al. Cancer Cell. 2022;40(2):109-13.

• Aston Martin announces a comprehensive update to its online configurator
• Lustrous paint finishes and new environments provide the perfect showcase for Aston Martin’s ultra-luxury design
• New graphics and navigation bring Aston Martin’s product range to life

 

16 October 2025, Gaydon: Aston Martin launches the most comprehensive update of its online Configurator since it was originally launched four years ago. This essential component of modern car buying is a true gateway to the brand, and the refresh refines and elevates aspects of the user experience to create a truly premium digital presence.

 

At the heart of the new configurator is an enhanced user experience, richer image quality and a more immersive feel overall. These changes are based on extensive user research and testing that has been undertaken to guide the configurator towards its new iteration. From the moment the configurator is opened, it presents a cohesive overview of the Aston Martin product range. Users then select the image of the model they want to start the configuration process. Once selected, the accompanying vehicle statistics are now more prominent, located directly below the cars themselves.

 

The new configurator also uprates the graphical quality of the rendered images, with paint finishes appearing more lustrous and reflective, thanks to new animated previews that showcase colours responding to lighting finishes.  Paint thumbnail designs have also been enlarged, with a new graphic that emphasises the three-dimensional qualities of the paint as it moves across the surface of the bodywork.

 

In addition to the existing rendered backgrounds, a new Gaydon environment has been created to help showcase the customer’s finalised specification. The stunning atrium entrance hall of Aston Martin’s Warwickshire HQ has played host to Aston Martins of every generation, from road and race cars to concepts and classics.

 

On desktop systems, the navigation bar has also been moved from vertical to horizontal, allowing more space for the image of the vehicle. This sidebar can also be expanded or collapsed for a clearer view. As the customer makes their choices, key options are presented via a more accurate and relevant zoomed in view to highlight the difference between the various product selections.

 

The newly enhanced configurator streamlines an essential part of the customer journey, with a fresh design language and graphical depictions. It will provide a showcase for the marque’s newest models, including the Aston Martin Vanquish Volante, Aston Martin DBX S, and the forthcoming Aston Martin Valhalla. In addition, paint colours like Apex Grey and Podium Green, are rendered in vivid, crisp detail, as are material surfaces like carbon fibre and titanium.

 

‘Our Configurator is an integral part of the modern Aston Martin customer experience,’ says Alex Long, Aston Martin’s Global Marketing Director. Our digital team has worked closely with Aston Martin’s design studio to shape an experience that is vivid, responsive, and inspirational. It’s essential to us that the quality and richness of Aston Martin’s design, engineering and craftsmanship is faithfully rendered to potential customers.’

 

-ENDS-

By Amy Hogan-Burney, Corporate Vice President, Customer Security & Trust  

In 80% of the cyber incidents Microsoft’s security teams investigated last year, attackers sought to steal data—a trend driven more by financial gain than intelligence gathering. According to the latest Microsoft Digital Défense Report, written with our Chief Information Security Officer Igor Tsyganskiy, over half of cyberattacks with known motives were driven by extortion or ransomware. That’s at least 52% of incidents fuelled by financial gain, while attacks focused solely on espionage made up just 4%. Nation-state threats remain a serious and persistent threat, but most of the immediate attacks organizations face today come from opportunistic criminals looking to make a profit.
 
Every day, Microsoft processes more than 100 trillion signals, blocks approximately 4.5 million new malware attempts, analyses 38 million identity risk detections, and screens 5 billion emails for malware and phishing. Advances in automation and readily available off-the-shelf tools have enabled cybercriminals—even those with limited technical expertise—to expand their operations significantly. The use of AI has further added to this trend with cybercriminals accelerating malware development and creating more realistic synthetic content, enhancing the efficiency of activities such as phishing and ransomware attacks. As a result, opportunistic malicious actors now target everyone—big or small—making cybercrime a universal, ever-present threat that spills into our daily lives.
 
In this environment, organizational leaders must treat cybersecurity as a core strategic priority—not just an IT issue—and build resilience into their technology and operations from the ground up. In our sixth annual Microsoft Digital Defence Report, which covers trends from July 2024 through June 2025, we highlight that legacy security measures are no longer enough; we need modern defences leveraging AI and strong collaboration across industries and governments to keep pace with the threat. For individuals, simple steps like using strong security tools—especially phishing-resistant multifactor authentication (MFA)—makes a big difference, as MFA can block over 99% of identity-based attacks. Below are some of the key findings.
 
 

 
Critical services are prime targets with a real-world impact.
 
Malicious actors remain focused on attacking critical public services—targets that, when compromised, can have a direct and immediate impact on people’s lives. Hospitals and local governments, for example, are all targets because they store sensitive data or have tight cybersecurity budgets with limited incident response capabilities, often resulting in outdated software. In the past year, cyberattacks on these sectors had real-world consequences, including delayed emergency medical care, disrupted emergency services, cancelled school classes, and halted transportation systems.
 
Ransomware actors in particular focus on these critical sectors because of the targets’ limited options. For example, a hospital must quickly resolve its encrypted systems, or patients could die, potentially leaving no other recourse but to pay. Additionally, governments, hospitals, and research institutions store sensitive data that criminals can steal and monetize through illicit marketplaces on the dark web, fuelling downstream criminal activity. Government and industry can collaborate to strengthen cybersecurity in these sectors—particularly for the most vulnerable. These efforts are critical to protecting communities and ensuring continuity of care, education, and emergency response.
 
Nation-state actors are expanding operations.
 
While cybercriminals are the biggest cyber threat by volume, nation-state actors still target key industries and regions, expanding their focus on espionage and, in some cases, on financial gain. Geopolitical objectives continue to drive a surge in state-sponsored cyber activity, with a notable expansion in targeting communications, research, and academia.
 

 
Key insights:

• China is continuing its broad push across industries to conduct espionage and steal sensitive data. State-affiliated actors are increasingly attacking non-governmental organizations (NGOs) to expand their insights and are using covert networks and vulnerable internet-facing devices to gain entry and avoid detection. They have also become faster at operationalizing newly disclosed vulnerabilities.
• Iran is going after a wider range of targets than ever before, from the Middle East to North America, as part of broadening espionage operations. Recently, three Iranian state-affiliated actors attacked shipping and logistics firms in Europe and the Persian Gulf to gain ongoing access to sensitive commercial data, raising the possibility that Iran may be pre-positioning to have the ability to interfere with commercial shipping operations.
• Russia, while still focused on the war in Ukraine, has expanded its targets. For example, Microsoft has observed Russian state-affiliated actors targeting small businesses in countries supporting Ukraine. In fact, outside of Ukraine, the top ten countries most affected by Russian cyber activity all belong to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)—a 25% increase compared to last year. Russian actors may view these smaller companies as possibly less resource-intensive pivot points they can use to access larger organizations. These actors are also increasingly leveraging the cybercriminal ecosystem for their attacks.
• North Korea remains focused on revenue generation and espionage. In a trend that has gained significant attention, thousands of state-affiliated North Korean remote IT workers have applied for jobs with companies around the world, sending their salaries back to the government as remittances. When discovered, some of these workers have turned to extortion as another approach to bringing in money for the regime.

The cyber threats posed by nation-states are becoming more expansive and unpredictable. In addition, the shift by at least some nation-state actors to further leveraging the cybercriminal ecosystem will make attribution even more complicated. This underscores the need for organizations to stay abreast of the threats to their industries and work with both industry peers and governments to confront the threats posed by nation-state actors.
 
2025 saw an escalation in the use of AI by both attackers and defenders.
 
Over the past year, both attackers and defenders harnessed the power of generative AI. Threat actors are using AI to boost their attacks by automating phishing, scaling social engineering, creating synthetic media, finding vulnerabilities faster, and creating malware that can adapt itself. Nation-state actors, too, have continued to incorporate AI into their cyber influence operations. This activity has picked up in the past six months as actors use the technology to make their efforts more advanced, scalable, and targeted.
 

 
For defenders, AI is also proving to be a valuable tool. Microsoft, for example, uses AI to spot threats, close detection gaps, catch phishing attempts, and protect vulnerable users. As both the risks and opportunities of AI rapidly evolve, organizations must prioritize securing their AI tools and training their teams. Everyone—from industry to government—must be proactive to keep pace with increasingly sophisticated attackers and to ensure that defenders keep ahead of adversaries.
 
Adversaries aren’t breaking in; they’re signing in.
 
Amid the growing sophistication of cyber threats, one statistic stands out: more than 97% of identity attacks are password attacks. In the first half of 2025 alone, identity-based attacks surged by 32%. That means the vast majority of malicious sign-in attempts an organization might receive are via large-scale password guessing attempts. Attackers get usernames and passwords (“credentials”) for these bulk attacks largely from credential leaks.
 
However, credential leaks aren’t the only place where attackers can obtain credentials. This year, we saw a surge in the use of infostealer malware by cybercriminals. Infostealers can secretly gather credentials and information about your online accounts, like browser session tokens, at scale. Cybercriminals can then buy this stolen information on cybercrime forums, making it easy for anyone to access accounts for purposes such as the delivery of ransomware.
 
Luckily, the solution to identity compromise is simple. The implementation of phishing-resistant multifactor authentication (MFA) can stop over 99% of this type of attack even if the attacker has the correct username and password combination. To target the malicious supply chain, Microsoft’s Digital Crimes Unit (DCU) is fighting back against the cybercriminal use of infostealers. In May, the DCU disrupted the most popular infostealer—–Lumma Stealer—alongside the US Department of Justice and Europol.
 
Moving forward: Cybersecurity is a shared defensive priority.
 
As threat actors grow more sophisticated, persistent, and opportunistic, organizations must stay vigilant, continually updating their defenses and sharing intelligence. Microsoft remains committed to doing its part to strengthen our products and services via our Secure Future Initiative. We also continue to collaborate with others to track threats, alert targeted customers, and share insights with the broader public when appropriate.
 
However, security is not only a technical challenge but a governance imperative. Defensive measures alone are not enough to deter nation-state adversaries. Governments must build frameworks that signal credible and proportionate consequences for malicious activity that violates international rules. Encouragingly, governments are increasingly attributing cyberattacks to foreign actors and imposing consequences such as indictments and sanctions. This growing transparency and accountability are important steps toward building collective deterrence. As digital transformation accelerates—amplified by the rise of AI—cyber threats pose risks to economic stability, governance, and personal safety. Addressing these challenges requires not only technical innovation but coordinated societal action.