Category: 3. Business

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You are battling the January blues and see a cheap deal on one of your socials for a two-week break in Spain during August. Better still, the price is £200 cheaper than elsewhere, possibly because the holiday is almost sold out.

When you text to confirm the details after making the payment, you are talked through the booking by a convincing contact.

Unfortunately, that will be the last you hear from the travel agent as they are criminals, and the advertisement was a fake set up to lure you in.

January is one of three months during the year – June and July being the others – when scammers ramp up their efforts to defraud people planning summer and winter breaks. This time of year is traditionally when holiday companies see a rush of bookings as people crave something to look forward to after Christmas.

Jim Winters, head of economic crime at Nationwide, says the building society sees a pick up in holiday scams at this time of year. Typically, people are drawn in by a social media ad, which is either a direct copy of a legitimate one from a reputable company, or created by AI.

“They’ll look at where the popular holiday destinations are, and if there’s one that is up and coming they’ll tailor the scam,” he says.

Nationwide said the average loss to people is about £3,500.

What it looks like

The hook is a credible-looking ad on social media for two weeks in the sun, or a winter break skiing. The reason it looks like the real thing is that it has probably been copied from a genuine travel site, however the price quoted will be significantly less than you might expect to pay.

After clicking on the ad, you will be asked to fill in your details and then be contacted on a chat app, such as WhatsApp, later. Or you may be able to click through directly to the chat from the ad.

Winters explains: “The offer will look like a bargain, an incredibly good value holiday. They might even give you some time pressure – as in ‘this is a one-time only deal’ or ‘you’ve got to sign up to it in the next 24 hours to qualify for this price’, and ‘we’ve only got x amount of tickets at this amount’.”

The fraudsters will ask for payment through bank transfer, and then, typically, cease contact, although some will still answer inquiries to lend some sort of legitimacy to the fraud. But, ultimately, the holiday does not exist.

What to do

When booking a holiday, make sure that you start the process on a reputable website, and not via a chat app. A good tip is to check the URL of the site in your browser. Be aware of the tactics of criminals. Urgency, and the fear of missing out on a deal, are big ploys to make victims act quickly and without thinking through decisions.

“Fraudsters know when peak periods are,” says Winters. “They know when people will be shopping for holidays. And, crucially, they know when they’ll be vulnerable to ‘too good to be true’ offers.”

Being asked to pay via bank transfer is a significant red flag as you will not have the section 75 protections that come with using a credit card.

If you think you have been defrauded, contact your bank immediately. After that, contact Action Fraud, the central hub for fraud and online crime.

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European institutions are increasingly pushing into private markets to help mitigate “a new regime of higher volatility”, BlackRock has said, as it rapidly expands its own activity in the sector.

Dominik Rohé, deputy head of international business at the world’s largest fund manager, said clients in Europe, the Middle East and Africa accounted for about 35 per cent of its private asset fundraising last year.

The amount raised from institutions in this region increased by more than 50 per cent in absolute terms from 2024, in a sign of the fast-growing adoption of private assets in this market.

Rohé said institutions in Europe such as pension funds have been shifting away from public equities and bonds towards private assets, partly to manage market turbulence and to find investments whose returns were not correlated with movements in stock or bond markets.

“European institutions are allocating more to private markets as they recognise that we are in a new regime with higher volatility and different correlations between bonds and equities,” he told the FT.

BlackRock has bought three firms — infrastructure investment group Global Infrastructure Partners, private investment firm HPS Investment Partners and data provider Preqin — to fuel its expansion in the sector over the past two years. It is targeting $400bn in private market fundraising by 2030.

The private markets sector has grown rapidly as investors have been attracted to an asset class that is viewed as less volatile because it is priced less frequently than public markets. But private markets can be more opaque and the less frequent valuation process can pose a risk for investors.

Geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty pushed up volatility last year, including a sharp sell-off in equity markets in the wake of US President Donald Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs, even as equities reached all-time highs.

Institutions “also see the opportunity to achieve early and diversified access through private markets into areas that are driving the economy, such as the infrastructure that will support the growth of AI as well as cash flowing businesses that have chosen to stay private for longer”, Rohé said.

BlackRock this week reported strong inflows into its fast-growing private markets unit, with the private credit business attracting $7.2bn and its infrastructure investment unit drawing in close to $5bn in three months.

BlackRock has amassed $322.6bn of assets under management in private markets. Total assets under management climbed to a record of $14tn, driven by its equity and fixed-income business.

Rohé said that private markets “can be more opaque to evaluate” and warned investors to be mindful of some of the liquidity challenges posed by private assets that can be harder to value and sell.

He added that across the EU and UK, more than 90 per cent of companies with annual revenue of over $100mn are privately held.

Suppliers of parts for Nvidia’s H200 have paused production after Chinese customs officials blocked shipments of the newly approved artificial intelligence processors from entering China, according to a report.

Reuters could not immediately verify the report, which appeared in the Financial Times citing two people with knowledge of the matter. Nvidia did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment made outside regular business hours.

Nvidia had expected more than one million orders from Chinese clients, the report said, adding that its suppliers had been operating around the clock to prepare for shipping as early as March.

Chinese customs authorities this week told customs agents that Nvidia’s H200 chips were not permitted to enter the country, Reuters reported.

Sources have also said government officials summoned domestic tech firms to warn them against buying the chips unless it was necessary.

The sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter, said authorities had not provided any reasons for their directives and had not given any indication if this was a formal ban or a temporary measure.

The H200, Nvidia’s second most powerful AI chip, is one of the biggest flashpoints in US-Sino relations. There is strong demand from Chinese firms, but it remains unclear if Beijing wants to ban the chips outright to encourage domestic chip companies to develop their own; whether the Chinese government is still mulling restrictions; or if it is all a bargaining tactic.

If the import ban is confirmed, it adds to a convoluted situation that includes the Trump administration allowing the US-designed, Taiwanese-manufactured H200 chips to be exported to China, with the US government reportedly to take a share of the profits.

The US government then decreed that instead of the completed chips being sent directly to China from Taiwan, they instead first go to a US laboratory for testing, allowing a 25% tariff to be imposed as they pass through the US. The tariff was also applied to chipmaker AMD’s MI325X processor.

Experts and analysts are split on whether selling the H200 to China is strategically a good idea. Those in favour say its availability might slow China’s progress developing similar chips and keep Chinese companies dependent on US technology; those against say the H200 is, for example, powerful enough to be used in weapons systems that China’s military might one day deploy against the US or its allies.

With Reuters

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TOTO (TSE:5332) has been drawing attention after its recent share performance, with returns over the month and past 3 months outpacing its longer term 5 year record and prompting fresh interest in its plumbing fixtures business.

See our latest analysis for TOTO.

With the share price at ¥4,724 and a 30 day share price return of 11.60% feeding into a 7.71% year to date gain, recent momentum contrasts with a weaker 5 year total shareholder return of a 12.53% decline. This hints that sentiment around TOTO’s prospects has shifted more positively in the nearer term.

If this kind of renewed interest in established industrial names has your attention, it could be a good moment to see what else is moving through fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With the stock at ¥4,724, a value score of 1 and trading above an average analyst price target of ¥4,309, the key question is whether TOTO is still undervalued or if the market is already pricing in future growth.

TOTO is trading on a P/S of 1.1x, which sits above both its peer group and the broader Japan building industry despite the recent share price recovery.

The P/S ratio compares the company’s market value with its annual revenue, so it tells you how much investors are paying for each ¥ of sales in TOTO’s plumbing fixtures and related products business.

In TOTO’s case, the current 1.1x P/S is described as expensive compared to both the peer average of 1x and the Japan building industry average of 0.6x. At the same time, that 1.1x level is flagged as good value against an estimated fair P/S of 1.6x, a level the market could move toward if sentiment and fundamentals stay aligned.

Relative to the sector, the current P/S suggests investors are already paying a premium versus many building names, even though TOTO’s earnings profile has recently included a large one off loss and low return on equity.

Explore the SWS fair ratio for TOTO

Result: Price-to-Sales of 1.1x (ABOUT RIGHT)

However, you still need to weigh risks like TOTO’s recent large one off loss and low return on equity, which could potentially limit how much investors are willing to pay.

Find out about the key risks to this TOTO narrative.

While the 1.1x P/S ratio looks roughly in line with a fair ratio of 1.6x, our DCF model points in a different direction. On that basis, TOTO at ¥4,724 is described as trading above an estimated fair value of ¥3,460.5, which suggests less room for error if expectations slip.

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out TOTO for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 100+ undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match – so you never miss a potential opportunity.

If you see the story differently or prefer to lean on your own work, you can shape a fresh view in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your TOTO research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

If TOTO has sharpened your focus, do not stop here. The Screener can quickly surface other angles that might suit your watchlist and research style.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include 5332.T.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

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Buying shares in the best businesses can build meaningful wealth for you and your family. While the best companies are hard to find, but they can generate massive returns over long periods. Just think about the savvy investors who held Channel Infrastructure NZ Limited (NZSE:CHI) shares for the last five years, while they gained 453%. And this is just one example of the epic gains achieved by some long term investors. Also pleasing for shareholders was the 13% gain in the last three months.

So let’s investigate and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business’ progress.

Trump has pledged to “unleash” American oil and gas and these 15 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit.

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company’s share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During the five years of share price growth, Channel Infrastructure NZ moved from a loss to profitability. Sometimes, the start of profitability is a major inflection point that can signal fast earnings growth to come, which in turn justifies very strong share price gains. Given that the company made a profit three years ago, but not five years ago, it is worth looking at the share price returns over the last three years, too. We can see that the Channel Infrastructure NZ share price is up 106% in the last three years. Meanwhile, EPS is up 77% per year. This EPS growth is higher than the 27% average annual increase in the share price over the same three years. So you might conclude the market is a little more cautious about the stock, these days.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

It is of course excellent to see how Channel Infrastructure NZ has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Channel Infrastructure NZ the TSR over the last 5 years was 602%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

It’s nice to see that Channel Infrastructure NZ shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 60% over the last year. And that does include the dividend. That gain is better than the annual TSR over five years, which is 48%. Therefore it seems like sentiment around the company has been positive lately. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example – Channel Infrastructure NZ has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on New Zealander exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.