Category: 3. Business

Imagine logging into your bank account one morning and finding everything frozen—cards declined, standing orders stopped and your savings untouchable. No fraud alert, no bounced cheque. Just a brief message: “We are closing your account. Please make alternative arrangements.”

This is not a rare nightmare. Around the world, more people and businesses are being “de-banked”—cut off from basic banking services.

In the financial industry, the practice is called “de-risking” or when banks sever ties with clients or even whole sectors to avoid regulatory or reputational risk.

While it might sound like a niche compliance issue, in reality, it sits at the intersection of financial crime prevention, political rights, trade flows and everyday access to money—and the UK, US and EU are taking sharply different approaches to it.

Earlier this month, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order aimed at preventing banks from denying services based on political or religious beliefs. The order bans the use of “reputational risk” as a justification for closing accounts and directs banking regulators to review practices within 180 days.

Supporters say the move protects freedom of political expression and stops discrimination against conservatives, who claim they have been disproportionately targeted.

Critics warn it could force banks to keep serving clients engaged in activities that create genuine financial crime or security risks.

As with many issues Trump is passionate about, the topic of de-banking in the US was spurred by his personal experiences. He repeatedly accused JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America of refusing his business after his first term as president because of his and his supporters’ conservative views.

He claims JPMorgan gave him 20 days to close his account and that Bank of America refused a large deposit even though both banks have denied politically motivated action.

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Another high-profile case was that of the National Council for Religious Freedom (NCRF), an organization founded in 2022 that explicitly backs politicians who support combining politics with religion and vote against bills such as the Equality Act, which prohibits discrimination on the basis of sex, gender identity and sexual orientation, “because it prohibits religious freedoms.”

Groups like these, especially if they rise to national prominence quickly and start depositing large sums into their accounts without providing sufficient background or donor transparency, can trigger automatic responses from banks worried about compliance with anti-money laundering regulation and are subject to enhanced monitoring.

So when NCRF’s accounts at JPMorgan Chase were suspended, it was probably not based on their clients political beliefs. Banks are profit-maximising institutions who aim to serve a wide yet reliable client base—drawing political attention to their work is the stuff of literal nightmares for them, especially banking behemoths like JPMorgan Chase.

In a letter, the bank said the closure was due to incomplete compliance documentation—not religious or political reasons.

Yet the NCRF used this decision to decry “woke capitalism” and launch a national campaign in the US to limit decisions, including reputational risk, and focus solely on quantifiable risks like credit, operational or compliance issues.

The new executive order is cause for headaches for bankers. In practice, lenders may have to review thousands of past account closures, document decisions more extensively and possibly reinstate customers they previously cut off.

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In Britain, the debate was turbo-charged by the 2023 Nigel Farage–Coutts affair. When the high-end bank closed the Brexit campaigner’s account, internal documents later revealed the decision factored in his political views. The row became front-page news, prompting government promises to strengthen transparency.

From a compliance and commercial standpoint, there are reasons why Coutts’ decision may have been well within the norms of risk management. Farage’s status as a politician makes him a Politically Exposed Person or PEP under anti–money laundering rules.

UK banks are required to apply enhanced due diligence to PEPs, including detailed checks on sources of wealth, closer transaction monitoring and ongoing reassessment of any potential links to corruption or financial crime. That doesn’t imply wrongdoing—but it does mean the account demands more resources and carries a higher regulatory burden. For a bank whose value proposition is built on discreet, low-risk relationships, this can tip the cost-benefit balance.

Reports at the time suggested that Farage’s account had fallen below Coutts’ minimum financial thresholds for certain services. When a client no longer meets profitability benchmarks, but still demands high levels of compliance oversight and carries reputational sensitivities, a private bank has strong incentives to part ways.

In that light, Coutts’ choice looks less like a political purge and more like a calculated alignment of its client book with its risk appetite and commercial strategy.

However, that was not the angle that dominated the headlines, and it ended up shaping de-risking and de-banking policy in a significant way in the UK.

In 2024, complaints to the Financial Ombudsman Service about account closures rose 44% to nearly 3,900, with a higher proportion upheld in favour of consumers. Meanwhile, over 140,000 business accounts were closed in 2023—raising concerns, especially for small businesses and non‑profits.

Since then, UK banks must give customers at least 90 days notice before closure and provide more detail on why accounts are terminated. The conversation is still dominated by high-profile, politically sensitive cases—rather than the wider economic and trade implications of de-risking.

By contrast, Brussels has treated de-risking as a long-standing, largely technical policy challenge. For years, EU institutions have issued guidance to safeguard financial inclusion while enforcing anti–money laundering and counter–terrorism financing (AML/CFT) rules.

“European Banking Federation (EBF) member banks often find themselves caught between a rock and a hard place: they must comply with stringent AML/CFT requirements—they are required to end relationships with their riskiest clients—yet they are requested to ensure access to basic banking services for legitimate customers,” the European Banking Federation told Euronews in a statement.

“Hence their de-risking decisions should remain proportionate and risk-based, not indiscriminate bans on entire countries or customer groups,” they continued.

According to the EBF, most banks in Europe focus on individual, case-by-case de-risking and pay particular attention to “red flags”. For example, situations where a customer’s identity cannot be verified using secure, government-approved ID checks, or any transaction in which they cannot confidently confirm who the person or company really are or who the “beneficial owner” is.

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For member banks, it is a matter of weighing whether the risks can be reduced enough to comply with regulations and protect the bank’s reputation, and whether managing that risk would require more time, money, and effort than the account is ultimately worth.

“In the EU, de-risking is increasingly recognised as a significant consumer issue, though it is neither a new concern nor one that fully mirrors the priorities of the Trump Administration,” the EBF statement continues.

“For years, EU institutions—most notably the European Banking Authority—have issued guidance aimed at safeguarding financial inclusion and ensuring that legitimate customers are not unfairly excluded from the banking system.”

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Morphological and structural characterization of AC and AC-MgO particles

Figure 3 shows the XRD patterns of activated carbon, pure MgO, and AC-MgO particles. The XRD pattern of pure MgO particles exhibits sharp characteristic peaks at 2θ angles of 36.8°, 42.7°, 62°, 74.2°, and 78.3°, corresponding to the (111), (200), (220), (311), and (222) planes, respectively³⁹. The two broad peaks observed at around 22° and 44° in the XRD patterns of both pure AC and AC-MgO particles are attributed to the (100) and (101) diffraction planes of the carbon structure⁴⁰. By comparing the diffraction patterns, it is seen that the XRD patterns of pure AC and the cubic crystalline structure of MgO are superimposed in the XRD pattern of the AC-MgO nanocomposite, indicating that the synthesis was successful.

Figure 4a shows the SEM image of activated carbon particles used in this study, indicating particles with a clear, crack-free, and smooth surface. The SEM micrograph and the corresponding EDS analysis from the AC-MgO nanocomposite particle are presented in Figs. 4b–d. As could be seen from Fig. 4b, a significant change in the surface morphology of the AC particles occurred after their modification with MgO nanoparticles. Additionally, the SEM image at higher magnification (Fig. 4c) confirms the presence of MgO nanoparticles on the nanocomposite surface, exhibiting a small spherical morphology and partial overlap with each other. From the EDS analysis results presented in Fig. 4d, it can be observed that the Mg and O elements were uniformly distributed, indicating that the MgO nanoparticles were dispersed well on the activated carbon.

The microstructure of the AC-MgO nanocomposites was also revealed by TEM and selected area electron diffraction (SAED) images (Fig. 5a, b). The discontinuous ring pattern in the SAED image confirms the polycrystalline nature of MgO nanoparticles. The SAED image shows concentric rings corresponding to the (111), (200), (220), (311), and (222) reflections of MgO particles. HR-TEM imaging (Fig. 5c) reveals lattice fringes with spacings of 0.21 nm, which are attributed to (200). These results align well with the XRD data.

Surface analysis of the membranes

Characterizing the surface properties of ultrafiltration membranes is essential for improving their performance for separation applications. In this study, the effect of adding AC-MgO particles on the surface properties of PES membranes was analyzed in terms of surface roughness and contact angles. As illustrated by the AFM images in Fig. 6, the surface roughness of the composite membranes is higher compared to the pristine PES membrane, with R_a values of 6.94 ± 0.125 nm and 16.59 ± 0.487 nm for the pristine PES and PES-AC/MgO membranes, respectively. The addition of particles resulted in a rougher surface, which facilitated filtration by increasing both the effective filtration area and pore size²⁷. Figure 7 shows the contact angles of the pure PES membrane and the membrane containing 0.354 wt% AC-MgO. The results confirm an improvement in hydrophilicity after incorporation of AC-MgO particles into the membrane. This improvement resulted from the presence of polar functional groups (–OH and –COOH) on the surface of AC-MgO, which migrated toward the membrane surface during membrane formation and allowed greater interaction with water molecules^41,42. Furthermore, as evident from the AFM results, the membrane roughness increased with the addition of particles, which could make the hydrophilic surface even more water-attracting⁴³.

Response surface methodology

Results of ANOVA

Summary of ANOVA results of the RSM model for PWP of the developed membranes is shown in Table 3. An F-value of 1.13 for lack of fit indicates that it is not significant relative to the pure error. Given that at the 95% confidence level, variables with p-values less than 0.05 are generally considered statistically significant⁴⁴, the model is highly significant due to having a p-value less than 0.0001, while the lack-of-fit with a p-value of 0.47 is not significant. These results confirm that the model adequately fits the experimental data and is appropriate for predicting the response within the studied range of variables.

A predictive second-order polynomial model was established using multiple regression analysis within the RSM framework to quantify the effects of four key factors on the pure water permeability, as expressed by the following equation:

To further evaluate the model’s accuracy, the predicted values are plotted against the experimental data in Fig. 8. As shown in this figure, the data points lie very close to the diagonal line, indicating strong consistency and close agreement between the observed and the predicted values. This alignment indicates the adequacy of the model fit. Additionally, the fit is confirmed through the coefficient of determination ((:{R}^{2})), where a high (:{R}^{2}) value of 0.94 demonstrates a strong correlation between the predicted and observed values. Furthermore, the minimal difference (less than 0.2) between the predicted (:{R}^{2}) ((:{R}_{pre}^{2})) and the adjusted (:{R}^{2}) ((:{R}_{adj}^{2})) confirms the validity of the model. Based on these statistically significant results, it can be confidently concluded that this model is effective in predicting optimal operating conditions.

Figure 9a presents the normal probability plot of residuals for the PWP responses. Residuals represent the difference between the measured and the predicted values. From this figure, the distribution of points closely following a straight line indicates that the residuals are approximately normally distributed. Figure 9b displays the residuals plotted versus the predicted PWP values. In this figure, the studentized residues are randomly scattered, indicating that the residuals are independent of the predicted response. The absence of any discernible pattern further supports the assumption of residual independence. Additionally, the slight fluctuation of residuals around the x-axis confirms the assumption of constant variance. These results collectively demonstrate the predictive accuracy of the model.

From the above results, the model predictions for water permeability are reasonably accurate and reliable. The optimal processing parameters predicted by the model are: AC-MgO concentration of 0.354 wt%, air gap distance of 18.933 cm, dope solution flow rate of 2.981 ml/min, and bore fluid flow rate of 7.775 ml/min. The maximum theoretical water permeability of the hollow fiber membrane under the optimal processing conditions was estimated to be approximately 56.715 L/(m².h.bar), and the experimentally measured permeability at this condition was found to be 52.49 L/(m².h.bar). This result suggests that the employed model has good predictive capability of the variables for achieving the optimal response.

Impact of particle concentration and process parameters on PWP

Figures 10 and 11a, d, and f illustrate the correlation between the concentration of AC-MgO particle in dope solution and the pure water permeability. As the content of AC-MgO increases, the PWP of membranes increases; however, a slight decrease is observed at low concentrations of particles. From these results, the higher concentration of particles in the fluid has a more pronounced positive effect on PWP. Such improvement is mainly ascribed to the synergistic effects of increased porosity and hydrophilicity due to the added particles⁴⁵. The relationship between PWP and air gap distance, as shown in Figs. 10 and 11a, c, and e, reveals that permeability increases with the rising air gap, which is attributed to the formation of longer finger-like structures⁴⁶. Figure 10 and 11b, c, and d also show that PWP increases with increasing dope solution flow rate, which is attributed to the significant formation of large macrovoids⁴⁷. Additionally, as depicted in Fig. 10 and 11b, e, and f, the PWP increases by increasing the bore fluid flow rate, likely due to the greater thickness of the layer with the finger-like structures⁴⁸. Further details will be described in the following sections.

Microstructure analysis of manufactured HFM cross section

To investigate the effect of the studied parameters on HFM morphology, SEM micrographs were taken from the transverse cross-section of the manufactured membranes. These images reveal that the cross-section of the membranes generally consisted of three distinct layers, with pore morphology varying depending on the process parameters, as discussed below.

Effect of particle concentration

The SEM images of the manufactured HFM cross-section with various AC-MgO particle content are shown in Fig. 12. As observed from this figure, the membrane cross-section typically comprised three distinct layers: an outer layer, which is generally dense with minimal porosity; a middle layer characterized by a macro-porous structure that influences permeability⁴⁹; and an inner layer composed of micro- and meso-porous structures. Additionally, Fig. 12 illustrates that increasing the AC-MgO content led to the formation of larger finger-like pores. These particles acted as nucleation sites for pore formation by providing surfaces where the non-solvent preferentially interacted with the dope solution. The improved hydrophilicity of the dope solution, resulting from the presence of AC-MgO, accelerated the solvent–water exchange rate and facilitated the development of larger pores and an increase in the thickness of the finger-like structured layer^12,50. These morphological changes, along with increased hydrophilicity due to the presence of AC-MgO particles, which allowed water molecules to more easily wet the membrane surface and penetrate the pores⁵¹, significantly enhanced the PWP of the membrane. These findings are in excellent agreement with the data presented in Figs. 10 and 11.

Effect of air gap

The effect of air gap distance on the thickness of the layer with the finger-like structure in the HFM, are presented in Fig. 13. It is shown that by increasing the distance from 2 cm to 12 cm and 42 cm, while keeping other parameters constant, the size of this layer in samples S8, S2, and S1 increased from 30 μm to 43 μm and 60 μm, respectively (Fig. 13a–c). Similarly, the thickness of the finger-like structured layer changed from 38 μm to 60 μm for the samples S15 and S18, respectively (Fig. 13d, e). Moreover, increasing the air gap distance caused greater pore diameters, as the fibers were exposed to air for a longer time before being submerged in the coagulation bath, allowing water vapor to induce phase inversion more extensively^52,53. According to the SEM micrograph presented in Fig. 13, the improved PWP of the composite hollow-fiber membranes can be ascribed to the combined effects of longer finger-like structures in the middle layer, and a shorter dense structure on the outer layer compared to membranes fabricated with a shorter air gap⁶. All these factors contributed to the increase in water permeability through the membrane, indicating a direct relationship between PWP and air gap distance, as is also evident in Figs. 10 and 11.

Effect of dope solution flow rate

It has been demonstrated that the flow rate of the dope solution during the fabrication of hollow fiber membranes significantly influences their structural morphology. In this study, four different flow rates were used to investigate the effects of dope solution flow rate on the PWP and morphology of hollow fiber membranes. As can be seen, increasing the flow rate from 2 to 3 ml/min for samples S28 and S27, resulted in an increase in the outer diameter of hollow fibers from 473 to 534 μm, and a significant increase in their wall thickness from 34 μm to 90 μm (Fig. 14a, b). Similarly, increasing the dope flow rate from 1.5 ml/min to 2.5 ml/min for samples S12 and S2 resulted in the outer diameter increasing from 539 to 609 μm and the wall thickness rising by 54% from 52 to 80 μm, respectively (Fig. 14c, d). These findings indicate that increasing the polymer dope solution flow rate mainly affects the outer dimension of the hollow fiber, leading to a notable thickening of the fiber wall. These observations are consistent with previous studies on PES hollow fiber membranes⁴⁷, which reported that higher flow rates produce fibers with thicker walls. Moreover, the outer surface of membranes fabricated with higher dope solution flow rates exhibited the largest pore sizes. This is attributed to the shorter residence time, which limited solvent evaporation into the air. Consequently, phase inversion of the membrane’s outer surface occurred entirely within the external coagulation bath. In this environment, rapid demixing between the solvent and water led to the formation of larger surface pores compared to membranes exposed to longer evaporation-induced phase inversion⁵⁴. As illustrated in Fig. 14, an increase in the outer diameter of the membrane is also associated with a greater wall thickness and the development of larger finger-like pores. These structural changes contribute to an enhancement in PWP.

Effect of bore fluid flow rate

The effect of flow rate of bore fluid on fiber morphology, while other process parameters were held constant, is also illustrated in Fig. 15. For samples S19 and S20, increasing the flow rate from 5 ml/min to 8 ml/min increased the thickness of the middle layer with the finger-like structure from 30 μm to 35 μm and the inner diameter from 344 to 358 μm, respectively (Fig. 15a, b). Similarly, for samples S2 and S10, increasing the flow rate from 6.5 ml/min to 9.5 ml/min increased the inner diameter from 458 μm to 470 μm and the thickness of the middle layer from 43 μm to 56 μm, respectively (Fig. 15c, d). These data indicate that increasing the bore fluid flow rate through the spinneret led to elongated voids and produced a thinner fiber wall, resulting in enhanced PWP. This observation is attributed to increased internal pressure caused by a higher bore fluid flow rate on the inner surface of the hollow fiber during spinning, which in turn leads to a reduction in membrane wall thickness⁵⁵. Additionally, at high flow rates, the bore fluid rapidly diffused into the doper solution. Consequently, phase inversion occurred faster throughout the dope solution relative to polymer migration towards the bore fluid. This led to the formation of a more homogeneous void distribution⁵⁶.

As explained above, the improved PWP of the developed HFMs can be attributed to their enhanced hydrophilicity and the presence of large finger-like pore structures in the middle layer. Meanwhile, the inner layer, characterized by its small pore size, is primarily responsible for the selectivity and separation performance of the membrane. For potential application in hemodialysis, this membrane design allows small solutes such as urea to pass freely, enabling effective removal of uremic toxins. At the same time, larger molecules, including proteins (e.g., albumin) and blood cells, are efficiently retained by the inner layer, thus preventing their leakage into the dialysate solution ^57,58. Therefore, despite increased permeability, selective filtration is maintained.

We came across a bullish thesis on Global-E Online Ltd. on Compounding Your Wealth’s Substack by Sergey. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on GLBE. Global-E Online Ltd.’s share was trading at $31.06 as of August 13^th. GLBE’s forward P/E was 84.03 according to Yahoo Finance.

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Global-E (GLBE) delivered a strong Q2 2025 performance, with revenue of $214.9 million, up 27.9% YoY and 13.2% QoQ, surpassing estimates by 3.4%, and gross merchandise value (GMV) reaching $1.454 billion, a 34.4% YoY increase. This marked the company’s first quarter of sustainable GAAP profitability, with net income of $10.5 million versus a $22.4 million loss in the prior year, and EPS of $0.06, 50% above expectations.

Service fees contributed $102.9 million and fulfillment services $112.0 million, reflecting steady take rates and strong merchant adoption. Regionally, the U.S. drove growth with $117.5 million in revenue (+34.1% YoY), while the EU expanded 44.7%, and other regions, including Israel, saw significant gains; the UK experienced a 6.6% decline due to Marks & Spencer halting cross-border sales after a cyberattack, though recovery is expected in Q4.

Operational efficiency improved with S&M expenses down to 19.7% of revenue, R&D at 12.2%, and G&A at 4.1%, while free cash flow reached $63.5 million, supported by $516 million in cash and equivalents. Multi-local fulfillment is on track for 15% of GMV, and BorderFree.com’s contribution grew to 4%. Strategic partnerships were strengthened through a renewed three-year DHL agreement and enhanced Shopify integrations, including an exclusive 12-month Shop Pay offering.

Management highlighted continued merchant expansion, new product adoption, and robust pipeline activity, projecting Q3 GMV growth of ~30% and revenue growth of 24%, with full-year 2025 guidance raised slightly to $921.5–$971.5 million. Despite trade policy uncertainties and UK headwinds, Global-E’s diversified model, growing international footprint, and operational execution position it for sustained profitability and meaningful shareholder value creation.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Global-E Online Ltd. (GLBE) by Steve Wagner in May 2025, which highlighted strong Q1 revenue growth, GMV expansion, scalable EBITDA, and strategic Shopify partnerships. The company’s stock price has depreciated approximately 6.1% since our coverage due to macro and regional headwinds. The thesis still stands as GLBE sustains growth. Sergey shares a similar thesis but emphasizes Q2 results, GAAP profitability, and strengthened partnerships.

We came across a bullish thesis on Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. on Consume Your Own Tech Investing’s Substack by Benjamin Tan. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on LTH. Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. ‘s share was trading at $27.98 as of August 13^th. LTH’s trailing and forward P/E were 27.43 and 21.69, respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

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Life Time Group Holdings (LTH) operates 184 centers across the U.S. and Canada, positioning itself as a premium wellness destination that blends fitness, lifestyle, and community. With offerings spanning gyms, spas, childcare, cafés, and fast-growing amenities like pickleball, Life Time attracts a diverse member base—families, professionals, retirees—driving record-high visits and retention. This inclusivity underpins its pricing power and member stickiness, allowing the company to focus on raising prices and expanding ancillary revenue rather than chasing volume.

Management targets 10–12 new openings annually, favoring measured growth in affluent urban and suburban markets, including mall and residential integrations. Financial performance is improving meaningfully: Q2 2025 revenue grew 14% to $762 million, net income rose 37%, and free cash flow remained positive for the fifth consecutive quarter. Adjusted EBITDA reached $211 million, surpassing Planet Fitness despite far fewer members, reflecting Life Time’s high-value, asset-intensive model. Strategic sale-leaseback deals, including $150 million in June and $100 million more planned in H2, are converting real estate into capital while reducing net debt leverage from 3.0x to 1.8x.

Risks include reliance on affluent members, high operating leverage, and still-nascent digital and branded product initiatives, but guidance calls for 2025 revenue growth of ~14% to $3.0 billion, EBITDA growth of 20%, and net income growth over 86%. At ~$27 per share, Life Time trades at ~12x forward EBITDA versus ~20x for Planet Fitness, suggesting valuation upside. With disciplined execution, sustained margin expansion, and a long runway in untapped markets, LTH could more than double in value over the next two to three years, offering attractive asymmetric risk/reward.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp. (MODG) by Strategic Alpha in September 2024, highlighting undervaluation, venue growth, and value unlock via segment separation. The stock has depreciated approximately 9.53% since then due to delayed restructuring benefits. The thesis still stands as separation could drive rerating. Benjamin Tan shares a similar view but focuses on premium positioning and margin expansion in Life Time Group Holdings.

TAX FILING: The newly introduced Tax Asaan application of the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) will likely make the task of filing income tax returns a complicated one. Given the low level of computer literacy in the country, very few people would be able to understand the app and access the portal. Besides, overseas Pakistanis not using Pakistani cellular connections would find it impossible to do so. It is not understandable how the tax consultants will handle hundreds of returns of their clients as the simple system of accessing through user name and password has been done away with. The FBR should revert to the old system if it intends to increase the number of filers.

Saleem Adil
Karachi

MISMANAGED CONCERT: I attended the Independence Day concert held in Hyderabad recently, and was deeply disappointed by the arrangements. The venue was overcrowded, and nobody seemed to have any real control over the audience. I personally witnessed girls being harassed by groups of boys. Such incidents not only ruined the spirit of the occasion, but also created a threatening environment for the attending families. Public events, especially those marking our independence, should be safe and welcoming for everyone. The authorities should plan better and ensure proper security at such events.

Muhammad Farhan
Hyderabad

A COSTLY BIRTHDAY GIFT: The recent birthday wish to the president of Pakistan in the shape of newspaper ad-vertisements placed by the Sindh govern-ment was worth millions of rupees, making it one of the costliest birthday gifts from anybody to anyone anywhere. What was the purpose of such advertisements except personal publicity, sycophancy and negative publicity? Taxpayers do not like their money to be wasted like this. However, one needs some level of moral sensitivity, political astuteness and thoughtfulness to realise this. A birthday wish is a personal matter, and a private communication is most appropriate.

Khayyam Durrani
Karachi

Published in Dawn, August 17th, 2025

KARACHI:

The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) extended its bullish run in the shortened four-day trading week, with the benchmark KSE-100 index hitting an all-time high of 147,005 points before closing at 146,492, up 1,109 points, or 0.8% week-on-week (WoW).

The rally was fueled by robust corporate earnings, Moody’s upgrade of Pakistan’s sovereign rating to Caa1 and optimism about the declining circular debt in the power sector, though profit-taking capped gains by the week’s end.

On a day-on-day basis, bulls marched towards 150k on Monday with full excitement as the KSE-100 index breached 146k and ended the day at 146,930, up 1,547 points, in anticipation of a Pakistan-US trade deal.

The bourse had a consolidation day on Tuesday where the KSE-100 floated in both directions and ultimately ended at 147,005 (+76 points) by keeping intact the 147k level as investors did some switching-cum-profit-taking. On Wednesday, profit-booking around 148k pushed the index to close negative at 146,529, down 476 points.

After the break of the Independence Day, the PSX ended the last session of the week on a flat note, settling at 146,492, down 38 points. During the day, investors largely squared off weekly positions, which kept sentiment mixed and prevented the index from holding above the 147,000 mark.

Arif Habib Limited (AHL), in its weekly review, noted that during the four-day trading week, shortened due to the Independence Day holiday, the KSE-100 index maintained its upward trajectory, reaching an all-time high of 147,005 points on Tuesday.

The rally was fueled by healthy corporate earnings during the ongoing results season. Furthermore, Moody’s upgraded Pakistan’s sovereign rating to Caa1 from Caa2, citing improving external buffers, fiscal consolidation and reform progress under the IMF programme. In addition to this, the circular debt in the power sector declined to Rs1,614 billion as of June 2025, AHL said.

In July, the auto industry recorded sales of 11,034 units, down 49% month-on-month (MoM) but up 28% year-on-year (YoY). Furthermore, oil production registered an uptick of 0.8% WoW, arriving at 59,604 barrels per day. Production at the Makori East and Nashpa increased during the week. Also, the Pakistani rupee appreciated marginally by 0.14% WoW, closing at 282.06 against the US dollar, it said.

The sectors that contributed positively were banks (1,062 points), cement (531 points), auto parts (104 points), auto assemblers (67 points) and investment banks (62 points). Meanwhile, sector-wise negative contribution came from fertiliser (318 points), E&P (214 points), oil marketing companies (159 points), power (102 points) and refinery (43 points).

Scrip-wise positive contribution came from Meezan Bank (354 points), Lucky Cement (289 points), HBL (253 points), Bank Alfalah (158 points) and Mari Petroleum (136 points). On the other hand, negative contributors were Fauji Fertiliser Company (313 points), Pakistan Petroleum (198 points), UBL (195 points), OGDC (171 points) and Hub Power (125 points).

Average daily volumes arrived at 606 million shares, down 7.2% WoW, while the average traded value settled at $143.8 million, down 13.1%, AHL added.

Wadee Zaman of JS Global mentioned that the KSE-100 extended its bullish streak during the outgoing week, touching the high of 147,534 points before slipping into the red on Friday. The index closed at 146,492 points, up 0.8% WoW.

Investor sentiment was driven by Moody’s upgrade of Pakistan’s rating to Caa1 with the outlook changed to stable, reflecting the country’s improving external position.

On the economic front, he said, the power-sector circular debt dropped to Rs1.6 trillion by the end of June 2025, showing a notable reduction of 33% from last year’s level of Rs2.4 trillion. It was largely attributed to the disbursement of Rs801 billion to power producers under the government’s stock clearance drive.

The Power Division is also expected to present its final proposal for the complete implementation of debt re-profiling with the Chinese independent power producers (IPPs), whose dues currently stand at Rs475 billion. Meanwhile, as per trade data, services’ exports rose 9.2% YoY to $8.4 billion in FY25, Zaman said.

ISLAMABAD:

The chief executive officer of Pakistan Revenue Automation Limited (PRAL) has refused to get a temporary extension in his tenure, creating fresh challenges for the government whose decision to either shut down or restructure the entity has already sent ripples among the employees.

The PRAL board had offered CEO Amir Malik an extension until a new head was appointed, according to correspondence seen by The Express Tribune. PRAL serves as the backbone of Pakistan’s tax system.

Malik’s extended tenure is ending next week, which comes just as Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has instructed that PRAL be wound up and replaced with a new, more efficient entity.

Sources said Malik did not accept the board’s offer to stay on temporarily, arguing that neither the PRAL board nor the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) defended the organisation before the prime minister. The government has not yet advertised the position of chief executive in the press.

When contacted, a senior FBR official said that the government would hire a new full-time CEO from the market.

Malik did not respond to a request for comments.

Uncertainty about PRAL’s future first emerged when the prime minister directed its closure last month. Later, the government said the meeting minutes had not been properly recorded and that the PM wanted to restructure PRAL, not shut it down.

After a story appeared in The Express Tribune, the PRAL management and board issued a statement stating that the recent discussions on modernisation had led to a decision to pivot the existing structure of PRAL to a new, state-of-the-art organisation as part of FBR’s digital transformation strategy.

PRAL will deliver enhanced functionality, financial autonomy, and technological innovation, ensuring a world-class experience for both FBR and taxpayers, according to the statement.

It added: “We want to clarify that PRAL will continue its operations without interruption throughout this period. All current systems, services, and support functions will remain fully operational to ensure there is no disruption for our stakeholders.”

The statement further added that the transition will be gradual, well-coordinated, and seamless, ensuring stability for employees, users, and customers at every stage.

The CEO’s initial three-year term had ended in February this year, which the board of PRAL extended for a term of six months, which is going to end next week.

The decision to close or restructure PRAL has unsettled employees, raising fears over job security. A couple of senior officials have already tendered their resignations, one even seeking waiver of the notice period, according to the sources.

PRAL board members believed Malik had sought reappointment instead of a short-term extension. They said the board would advertise for a new chief executive, while Malik would have the option to contest for the post. Given his experience, they noted, he might have an edge over other candidates.

PRAL’s senior management was of the view that the entity was wrongly blamed for the outdated hardware and software systems, which have reached both end of life and end of service and are a reason for disruptions and lack of availability of some of the services.

They said the FBR also did not want to completely shut the STARR and FASTER systems, used for processing tax refunds but still running on Oracle 8.

Taxpayers file returns and pay taxes through PRAL’s system, which also serves as the depository of all tax transactions. However, the obsolete hardware and software have raised questions over the sustainability of services. The government had taken a foreign loan in 2019 to upgrade systems, but deadlines have since lapsed.

Management has also informed the board that PRAL faces difficulty in hiring experienced private-sector professionals, including a chief financial officer and chief product officer.

The PRAL management had also requested hiring of heads of software platforms and head of software development. The shortlisted names were sent to the board some time back but there were delays in finalising the candidates, said the sources.

The FBR, which relies on PRAL for its digital backbone, has also extended the income tax return filing deadline to October 31, 2025, which may also help it avoid operational disruption following PRAL’s pending closure or restructuring.

Last week, however, the PRAL board said that despite the planned restructuring the regular services will not be disrupted.