Category: 3. Business

Unions have urged the chancellor to keep focused on raising living standards, targeting child poverty and upping the national minimum wage, in the face of renewed calls from business to change course on employment rights.

The TUC said that Rachel Reeves must deliver “a living standards budget” on Wednesday to ease the pressure on working households whose incomes have remained stagnant in more than a decade.

Analysis by the unions showed working people were just £12 a week better off compared with 2008 after a “painful Tory pay hangover”. Real wages grew at an average of just 0.04% each year under the Conservative government between May 2010 and April 2024, it found, while public service workers saw no increase at all.

It said that had real wages continued to grow as they did from 2000-2008, workers would now be paid £317 per week more.

Paul Nowak, the TUC general secretary, said: “This budget must be a living standards budget.

“Households up and down the country [are] still suffering a painful Tory pay hangover – leaving this Labour government with lots of ground to make up.”

He urged Reeves to “show ambition on the minimum wage”. He also called for action to bring down energy bills, and for scrapping the two-child benefit cap in full.

The TUC said Reeves should tackle the “child poverty emergency”, announcing new polling by Survation showing 83% of the public agreed no child should be living in poverty in the UK.

Reeves has signalled she is preparing to lift the two-child cap, according to pre-budget reports.

Novak said the budget would be “a crucial moment to show ministers are on the side of working people”.

Business groups meanwhile have renewed calls on the chancellor to “make hard choices for growth” by bringing down the cost of welfare and state pensions, and rethinking the employment rights bill.

Rain Newton-Smith, the CBI chief executive, said: “If growth is your priority, prove it – make hard choices for it. Against opposition, against short-term politics. Be it welfare, be it pensions increases – show the markets you mean business.”

She said that Reeves’ 2024 budget had “turned to business to plug a hole” and created £24bn annually in extra costs for businesses, including additional national insurance contributions from employers.

She added: “How can business hire for growth […] when key government choices pull the other way? When NICs rises and likely changes to salary sacrifice make it more costly to take a chance on people.”

Speaking to the CBI conference in London on Monday, Newton-Smith will urge the government to “change course on the employment rights bill” which “eight in 10 firms say, in its current form, will make it harder to hire”.

Lobbying against the bill, which was a key Labour manifesto pledge and extends workers rights on issues such as sick leave and unfair dismissal, has intensified with the Lords unpicking clauses as legislation goes through parliament.

Some consensus between unions and business has emerged over high energy costs, which the CBI also identified as a major problem, deterring companies from investment when “straining under some of the highest electricity costs in the world”.

The government is expected to announce some kind of support package on energy bills, along with this weekend’s announcement of a freeze on rail fares, to blunt the impact of wider expected tax rises in the budget.

The transport secretary, Heidi Alexander, told the BBC on Sunday that the highly anticipated budget – and apparent U-turns on some measures – was coming on the “shifting sands” of changing economic forecasts and that it remained “a very challenging global economic environment”.

In one concrete measure to tackle the cost of living confirmed in the budget, the Treasury said rail fares would not increase next year – the first absolute freeze in 30 years, after fares had gone up more than 60% in the past 14 years.

None of those previous episodes, though, have prepared traders for the speed and scale of the past few weeks, in a reversal that was sharper than expected even if it lacked the systemic stress of prior crashes.

Friday’s drop sent Bitcoin to a low near $80,500, putting it on track for its worst month since Terra’s $60 billion collapse in 2022 set off the bankruptcies that ended in FTX. Altogether, some half a trillion dollars in Bitcoin value has been wiped out. And that’s before tallying the carnage across the altcoin complex. 

Bitcoin is still comfortably up since President Donald Trump’s November victory, but much of the heady run has vanished in his first year back in office, the very stretch he hailed as crypto’s golden age. Most of the losses remain on paper. But for the first time since exchange-traded funds helped bring Wall Street and retail into the market, those positions are under pressure.

The spark this time around is harder to spot. These new ETFs didn’t exist during the last big crypto crash. Investors have pulled billions from the 12 Bitcoin-linked funds this month, Bloomberg data show, with past buyers including Harvard’s endowment and several hedge funds.

The slew of digital-asset treasury companies — publicly traded crypto holding vehicles, inspired by Michael Saylor’s Strategy Inc. — have seen even steeper outflows as investors question the value of corporate shells built solely to hold tokens.

What’s clear is that crypto has become much bigger than the retail traders and techno futurists who are committed to HODLing through thick and thin. Now it has become woven into the fabric of Wall Street and the broader public markets, bringing a whole new set of finicky players to the table. 

“What’s happened these last two months was like rocket fuel, as if people were expecting this to crash,” said Fadi Aboualfa, head of research at Copper Technologies Ltd. “That’s what institutional investors do. They’re not there to hold, they don’t have that mentality. They rebalance their portfolio.”

Bitcoin remains up roughly 50% from its pre-election low. And the scale of this pullback still pales next to its 75% collapse during the 2021–2022 bear market. That hints at how much deeper the pain could still go. Back then, each leg down exposed another major player — from Celsius to BlockFi to Three Arrows.

Flash Crash 

But with no obvious blowups or scandals this time, some traders think the current drop is more about technicals and confidence than systemic cracks.

“We aren’t following the same path down; overall macro conditions, government support, and fewer bad actors in the space make today’s market more resilient,” said Luke Youngblood, founder of lending platform Moonwell. “The foundations crypto is building on are stronger, even if there are causes for concern down the line.”

The clearest catalyst was a flash crash on Oct. 10 in which $19 billion of crypto bets were liquidated in a matter of hours. The event exposed the chronic lack of liquidity during weekend trading — the flipside to crypto’s famed 24-7 trading schedule — as well as a build-up of excessive leverage on certain exchanges, knocking Bitcoin from the all-time high of $126,251 that it had reached just days earlier. 

“To some extent, we believe a lot of the decline in crypto markets is due to what happened on 10/10,” Brett Knoblauch and Gareth Gacetta, analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., wrote in a Thursday note. “It feels as if some big players in the space are being forced to sell, as what happened on 10/10 might have had a far-larger impact on balance sheets than initially thought.”

The problem hasn’t quite died out yet either. Liquidity in crypto markets remains low, with market makers weakened by the crash unable to step in and support prices. Around $1.6 billion in bets were liquidated across exchanges on Friday, according to Coinglass data, as the latest drop hit leveraged traders.

Bitcoin’s gold-like mystique — always a big stretch — has faded. Gold has held its ground. Crypto remains a proxy for fast-twitch risk appetite — and it’s reacting faster than the market around it.

This week, Bitcoin got caught up in topsy-turvy trading in technology stocks, with the token’s volatility being pointed to as both the cause and effect of equities turmoil. On Thursday, for example, the S&P 500 rose early in the day, bolstered by strong earnings from Nvidia Corp., before suffering its biggest intraday reversal since the April tariff turmoil. 

Analysts at Nomura blamed crypto, among other causes. Bill Ackman floated an unusual link — suggesting Fannie and Freddie holdings were behaving like a crypto proxy.

Crypto’s fate is now tied to AI-fueled market optimism. With bubble chatter building, it won’t take much to spook investors into selling. There are also plenty of dangers lurking within the crypto ecosystem. The Saylor copycats have been built on the belief that a public company that does nothing but hold crypto can be worth more than the value of the tokens it holds. 

The push to repurpose public firms into crypto treasuries has endured to this point in the downturn — echoing the overleveraged lenders of 2022. If confidence cracks, forced selling could follow. Many are already underwater on their token holdings.

“When you’ve got a medical device company or a cancer research firm rebranding as a crypto treasury, it’s a sign of where you are in the cycle,” said Adam Morgan McCarthy, senior research analyst at blockchain data firm Kaiko. 

Overall, any positive vibes left in the industry appear to be hurtling toward rock bottom. The Fear and Greed index — a tool that measures sentiment in crypto markets — sat at a score of 11 out of 100 on Friday, according to CoinMarketCap. That’s deep in “extreme fear” territory. 

“Fear sentiment has spiked to relative highs while structural demand for spot remains notably absent, leaving the market without the natural buyers typically present during significant corrections,” said Chris Newhouse, director of research at Ergonia, a firm specializing in decentralized finance.

• Thinking about whether Amer Sports is a bargain or overpriced? You are not alone, and the answer might surprise you!

• The stock has surged lately, climbing 12.2% over the past week, 7.2% in the last month, and is up 40.2% for the year so far.

• Much of this action is tied to renewed interest in sportswear brands and several high-profile retail partnerships that have grabbed investor attention. These recent news stories are fueling expectations for stronger demand and have changed how traders are approaching Amer Sports’ stock.

• The company currently scores 1 out of 6 on our undervaluation checklist, which means there is plenty to discuss about how we assess its value. We will walk through the common valuation methods, then reveal a different way to get the full picture at the end of this article.

Amer Sports scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model works by estimating a company’s future cash flows and then discounting them back to today’s value. This process provides an intrinsic value for the stock. For Amer Sports, this method relies on both analyst forecasts and advanced extrapolations for years beyond typical coverage.

Amer Sports is currently generating $254.13 million in Free Cash Flow. Analysts project this number to reach about $732.5 million by the end of 2029, with estimates for 2026 through 2029 ranging from approximately $462.67 million to $828 million. Beyond those years, projections are calculated based on historical trends and expected stability.

Using these projections, the DCF model estimates Amer Sports’ intrinsic value at $16.86 per share. With the stock trading much higher, this means the current share price is 102% above its estimated fair value. This suggests the stock is significantly overvalued on this measure.

Result: OVERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Amer Sports may be overvalued by 102.0%. Discover 926 undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Amer Sports.

The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a widely used method for assessing the value of profitable companies like Amer Sports. It reflects how much investors are willing to pay today for a dollar of current earnings, making it a useful shorthand for gauging market expectations and relative value.

A “normal” or “fair” PE ratio varies widely depending on a company’s growth prospects and perceived risks. Fast-growing or lower-risk companies typically command higher PE ratios, while slower-growing or riskier ones are valued at lower multiples.

At present, Amer Sports trades at a PE ratio of 60.68x. For context, this is significantly higher than both the luxury industry average of 19.66x and the average of its direct peers, which is 32.55x. By these traditional yardsticks, the company appears richly valued.

However, Simply Wall St’s “Fair Ratio” is designed to capture much more nuance. It combines factors like Amer Sports’ projected earnings growth, profit margins, its position within the market, and company-specific risks, offering a tailored benchmark. In this case, the Fair Ratio for Amer Sports is 26.17x, which more accurately reflects what a multiple should be for this specific company right now.

This means Amer Sports’ actual PE ratio is more than double its Fair Ratio, suggesting that, despite growth optimism and industry momentum, the stock is trading at a clear premium to its fundamentals.

Result: OVERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1430 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Earlier we mentioned that there’s an even better way to understand valuation, so let’s introduce you to Narratives. A Narrative is your personal story for a company, where you set your own estimates for future revenue, earnings, and profit margins, and use them to calculate what you think is a fair value for the stock based on your expectations.

Narratives work by connecting a company’s business outlook with concrete financial forecasts, then linking those projections to a calculated fair value. This approach puts you in the driver’s seat, letting your unique perspective shape what you believe the stock is truly worth. Narratives are available right now on Simply Wall St’s Community page, used by millions of investors to share, debate, and learn from each other’s views.

This tool makes investing more actionable; by comparing your Narrative Fair Value with today’s share price, you can clearly see for yourself whether you think Amer Sports is a buy, a hold, or a sell. Plus, Narratives automatically respond to new developments. When news or fresh earnings hit, your calculations update in real time so you never fall behind.

For example, recent Narratives about Amer Sports set fair values as high as $52 if you expect explosive earnings growth led by premium brand expansion, or as low as $34 if you’re more cautious about long-term risks and competition. This shows how your story and your numbers can be entirely your own.

Do you think there’s more to the story for Amer Sports? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include AS.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

• If you have ever wondered whether Carrier Global is truly a bargain or just another name in the headlines, you’re in the right place.

• The stock has seen notable movement lately, dropping 3.1% over the past week and 9.4% for the month, with a year-to-date return of -23.3% and down 31.0% in the last year. Yet, if you zoom out, it is still up more than 48% over five years.

• Recently, Carrier Global has made headlines with its strategic expansion into sustainable building solutions, catching the attention of both industry watchers and environmentally conscious investors. Developments like these could reshape the growth narrative and have contributed to recent volatility in the share price.

• Based on our current assessment, Carrier Global scores a 4 out of 6 on key valuation checks, suggesting there are several signals it might be undervalued. We will break down these valuation methods and explore a smarter way to approach fair value throughout the rest of the article.

Find out why Carrier Global’s -31.0% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.

The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates a company’s intrinsic value by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to today’s value. This approach helps investors determine whether the current stock price reflects the real worth of the business based on its ability to generate cash over time.

For Carrier Global, current Free Cash Flow stands at $1.13 Billion. According to analyst forecasts, Free Cash Flow is expected to grow and reach $3.09 Billion by 2028. Beyond the analyst estimates, projections are extrapolated and indicate continued healthy increases in future cash flows throughout the next decade.

Applying the DCF approach, Carrier Global’s estimated fair value is $68.13 per share. This suggests the stock is trading at a 23.1% discount to its intrinsic value based on current forecasts.

Carrier Global currently appears undervalued by the market. This may indicate a potential opportunity for investors looking for growth and value in the building solutions sector.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Carrier Global is undervalued by 23.1%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 926 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Carrier Global.

For profitable companies like Carrier Global, the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is a widely preferred valuation metric. It offers a snapshot of how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of the company’s earnings, making it a fast and useful measure for companies with consistent profits.

It is important to remember that what counts as a “normal” or “fair” PE ratio is not universal. Growth expectations and risk levels can drive meaningful differences. Rapidly growing companies or those perceived as safer often command higher PE ratios, while slower-growing or riskier companies tend to have lower ones.

Carrier Global currently trades at a PE ratio of 32x. This is higher than the Building industry average of 17.3x and above the selected peer average of 28.1x. On the surface, this could suggest that Carrier Global is priced at a premium compared to many of its direct competitors.

Simply Wall St’s proprietary “Fair Ratio” helps place this in context. Rather than just comparing Carrier Global to peers or industry norms, the Fair Ratio weighs factors such as expected growth, profit margins, company size, and business model risks. In Carrier Global’s case, the Fair Ratio is 38.6x, reflecting these company-specific dynamics.

Because Carrier Global’s current PE of 32x is below its Fair Ratio of 38.6x, this suggests the stock is undervalued on a relative basis, even if it looks expensive next to industry and peer averages. The Fair Ratio method gives a more accurate picture, as it is tailored to Carrier’s unique situation rather than broad benchmarks.

Result: UNDERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1430 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let’s introduce you to Narratives.

A Narrative is a simple, approachable way to tell the story behind a company’s numbers, showing how your expectations for Carrier Global’s future revenue, earnings, and profit margins shape your view of its fair value.

Rather than just focusing on the raw financial data, Narratives help you connect the dots between a company’s real-world developments, your personal perspective on where it is headed, and what you think the shares are truly worth.

On Simply Wall St’s Community page, which is home to millions of investors worldwide, you can explore or create these dynamic Narratives yourself. Narratives are designed to make investing easier by letting you visualize how financial forecasts, news, and new earnings reports instantly update the share’s fair value, allowing you to make smarter buy and sell decisions as the facts change.

For instance, within Carrier Global’s Narratives, some investors with a bullish outlook see fair value as high as $100 per share, while more cautious users set their estimates closer to $65, demonstrating how Narratives help capture different viewpoints, investment theses, and risk tolerances with full transparency.

Do you think there’s more to the story for Carrier Global? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include CARR.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

• In the past week, Kraft Heinz unveiled plans to break up its business into two separate entities and launched new product initiatives including Heinz Leftover Gravy in the US and Heinz Ketchup Zero in Dubai, aiming to attract millennial hosts and health-conscious consumers.

• This restructuring marks a major shift in Kraft Heinz’s approach, as the company seeks to revive growth and unlock greater shareholder value amid evolving consumer preferences and changing holiday traditions.

• We’ll explore how Kraft Heinz’s planned business separation could reshape the investment outlook, especially regarding future growth initiatives and cash flow priorities.

The best AI stocks today may lie beyond giants like Nvidia and Microsoft. Find the next big opportunity with these 26 smaller AI-focused companies with strong growth potential through early-stage innovation in machine learning, automation, and data intelligence that could fund your retirement.

To be a Kraft Heinz shareholder today, you need confidence that the upcoming business separation can unlock value while stabilizing core North American revenues in the face of persistent volume declines. The recent announcement broadly supports the company’s push for relevance, but the restructuring itself remains the biggest short-term catalyst and source of risk, new product launches alone are unlikely to materially shift this calculus in the immediate future.

Among recent product initiatives, the launch of Heinz Ketchup Zero in Dubai stands out. This move directly ties into Kraft Heinz’s ongoing focus on health-conscious innovation, a potential catalyst as health and wellness trends influence consumer choices and could impact the company’s future revenue mix.

Yet, it’s important to recognize that unlike the promise of new products, the risk of execution missteps and cost pressures tied to the business separation represents information that investors should be aware of…

Read the full narrative on Kraft Heinz (it’s free!)

Kraft Heinz’s outlook forecasts $26.1 billion in revenue and $3.3 billion in earnings by 2028. This assumes a yearly revenue growth rate of 1.0% and a $8.6 billion increase in earnings from the current -$5.3 billion.

Uncover how Kraft Heinz’s forecasts yield a $27.13 fair value, a 7% upside to its current price.

Fair value estimates from 22 Simply Wall St Community members range from US$23.95 to US$68.79, showing wide disagreement about Kraft Heinz’s true worth. Many are watching whether innovation can meaningfully offset weak core market performance, making it valuable to explore several alternative viewpoints.

Explore 22 other fair value estimates on Kraft Heinz – why the stock might be worth 5% less than the current price!

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes – extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

Our daily scans reveal stocks with breakout potential. Don’t miss this chance:

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include KHC.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

• In the past week, Morgan Stanley downgraded Hewlett Packard Enterprise, citing challenges from the Juniper Networks acquisition and the impact of rising memory costs on future profit margins and earnings forecasts.

• This development highlights analyst concerns around HPE’s ability to manage integration risks while maintaining margin expansion and earnings growth amid industry-wide cost pressures.

• We’ll look at how margin pressure from higher memory costs and the recent Juniper integration may affect Hewlett Packard Enterprise’s investment narrative.

These 11 companies survived and thrived after COVID and have the right ingredients to survive Trump’s tariffs. Discover why before your portfolio feels the trade war pinch.

To be a Hewlett Packard Enterprise shareholder today, you need confidence in the company’s ability to execute its transition to higher-margin software, services, and AI-centric infrastructure, despite short-term integration risks from the Juniper Networks acquisition and near-term cost pressures from rising memory prices. Morgan Stanley’s recent downgrade underscores concerns that these issues may weigh on anticipated margin expansion, although no material shift has been signaled in the company’s core long-term narrative or fundamental catalyst: successful execution on AI and networking-led growth.

Among recent announcements, HPE’s launch of next-generation Cray supercomputing solutions stands out for its relevance to the investment case. These innovations support the company’s push into AI-ready compute, positioning HPE to benefit from industry AI adoption trends, the very catalyst that could offset margin pressure from integration challenges and higher hardware input costs.

By contrast, investors should keep in mind the potential consequences if Juniper integration risks are not managed effectively and …

Read the full narrative on Hewlett Packard Enterprise (it’s free!)

Hewlett Packard Enterprise’s narrative projects $44.4 billion revenue and $2.7 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 10.3% yearly revenue growth and a $1.6 billion earnings increase from $1.1 billion today.

Uncover how Hewlett Packard Enterprise’s forecasts yield a $26.51 fair value, a 29% upside to its current price.

Five members of the Simply Wall St Community have estimated HPE’s fair value in a broad range from US$17.90 to US$33.26 per share. Considering concerns about execution on recent acquisitions, these varied outlooks highlight the importance of understanding both upside potential and risks when making investment decisions.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Hewlett Packard Enterprise – why the stock might be worth as much as 62% more than the current price!

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes – extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

These stocks are moving-our analysis flagged them today. Act fast before the price catches up:

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include HPE.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

The shift was subtle, then sudden. For weeks, the riskiest trades in finance — crypto, AI stocks, meme names, high-octane momentum bets — had been slipping. On Thursday, that slow-motion retreat snapped. The Nasdaq 100 sank nearly 5% from its intraday peak, its sharpest reversal since April. Nvidia Corp. at one point shed nearly $400 billion despite beating earnings expectations. Bitcoin hit a seven-month low. Momentum names dropped in near-perfect sync.

It was a vivid reminder of how easily pressure can cascade through crowded trades, and how markets powered by momentum and retail enthusiasm can buckle without warning.

There was no obvious trigger. No policy shift. No data surprise. No earnings miss. Just a sudden wave of selling, and an equally abrupt recovery. What rattled investors wasn’t just the scale of the moves, but their speed, and what that speed suggested: a momentum-driven market, prone to synchronized swings and fragile under strain.

“There are real cracks,” said Nathan Thooft, chief investment officer at Manulife Investment Management, which oversees $160 billion. “When you have valuations at these levels and many assets priced for near perfection, any cracks and headline risks cause outsized reactions.”

Thooft began paring back equity exposure two weeks ago, reducing exposure to equity risk in tactical portfolios from overweight to neutral as volatility picked up. He now sees a market that’s splintering, not with a single story, but with “plenty to cheer about for the optimists and plenty of worries for the pessimists.”

The numbers are hard to ignore. Bitcoin is down more than 20% in November, its worst month since the 2022 crypto crash. Nvidia is heading for its steepest monthly decline since March. A Goldman Sachs index of retail-favored stocks has fallen 17% from its October high. Volatility has surged. Demand for crash protection has returned.

But the most visible tremors, and perhaps the most amplified, are playing out in crypto. The selloff in Bitcoin has mirrored the fall in high-beta stocks, strengthening the case that crypto is now moving in lockstep with broader risk assets.

The short-term correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 hit a record earlier this month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Even the S&P 500 showed unusual synchronicity with digital assets.

“There is perhaps an investor base — the more speculative and more levered segment of retail investors — that is common to both crypto and equity markets,” wrote JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, noting that blockchain innovation underpins a growing bridge between the two spheres.

data-srcyload

Ed Yardeni tied part of Thursday’s equity drop to Bitcoin’s plunge, calling the connection too tight to dismiss. And billionaire investor Bill Ackman offered his own comparison — claiming that his stake in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac effectively acts as a kind of crypto proxy.

That dynamic — in which digital tokens rise and fall alongside speculative equities — tends to fade in quiet markets, only to return in moments of stress. “Like the Rockettes, they all dance in lockstep,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. “Bitcoin is a representative of the risk-on, risk-off sentiment on steroids.”

While some claim crypto is leading the downturn, the case is thin. Institutional exposure is limited, and the asset’s price action tends to be more sentiment-prone than fundamental. Rather than setting the tone, crypto may simply register market stress in its most visible — and visceral — form: a highly leveraged, retail-heavy barometer where speculative nerves show first.

Other explanations for febrile stock trading are technical: volatility-linked funds shifting exposure, algorithmic flows tipping thresholds, options positioning unwinding. But all point to the same conclusion: in a crowded market, even small tremors can cascade.

Thursday’s sharp reversal only magnified that anxiety. The so-called fear gauge, the VIX, spiked to its highest level since April’s “Liberation Day” selloff. Traders rushed to buy crash protection. Adrian Helfert, chief investment officer at Westwood, was among those who had already begun repositioning in recent weeks, adding tail-risk hedges in anticipation of a regime shift. The crypto slump reinforces the broader retreat from risk assets, he said.

“Investors are viewing it less as a safe haven and more as a speculative holding to shed as market fear rises, leading to deleveraging and rapid ‘despeculation’ across high-risk segments,” Helfert said. “This is reinforcing the move away from risk assets.”

data-srcyload

Even Nvidia’s blowout earnings couldn’t hold the line. Despite topping expectations, the AI heavyweight fell sharply during the week, underscoring the broader pressure on tech valuations. The Nasdaq 100 notched its third straight weekly loss, shedding about 3%. Retail flows into single-name stocks also flipped negative for the week, according to JPMorgan estimates. And though the market bounced Friday — following dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams — the rebound did little to erase the deeper sense of unease.

All of it points to a retreat from the frothiest parts of the market, where AI exuberance, speculative positioning, and cheap leverage have powered much of this year’s gains — and where conviction is now harder to find. And until recently, crash protection was difficult to justify. Risk assets had rallied hard since May, and those betting against the boom had repeatedly been burned. But now, even long-time bulls are looking over their shoulders.

“A lot of folks who have done well are right now discussing 2026 risk budgets, and obviously AI concerns are top of mind,” said Amy Wu Silverman, head of derivatives strategy at RBC Capital Markets. “A number of investors I have spoken with have wanted to hedge for a while. We jokingly call them the ‘fully invested bears.’”

Story Continues

An elderly couple has been given protection orders after alleging their adult son threatened his mother with two knives and told her and other family members he would “cut your heads off”.

Their adult daughter, who said her brother is a crack addict, also got a protection order from the emergency domestic violence court at Dolphin House in Dublin.

She told Judge Gerard Furlong that she, her parents and other family members were sitting around the kitchen table one evening recently when her brother came in shouting and demanding keys.

He lifted the table up and then grabbed two knives and threatened her mother, aged in her seventies, with them, she said. “She was just doing the crossword.”

Her brother, aged in his thirties, has been a crack addict for about nine or 10 years and has started to get “stuff” delivered to their home.

“I haven’t spoken to him for about 10 to 15 years but I had to defend my mother.”

Her brother pushed her, gardaí were called and they removed him, she said. Gardaí told the family the man was given a letter to go voluntarily to a psychiatric unit.

However, he returned to the house that same evening and threatened family members, describing them as “rats”, the woman said. “He threatens to kill anyone who comes to the house, to slice their heads off.”

When the judge said there was enough evidence for the couple to get an interim barring order against their son requiring him to leave the house, the father said he did not want to see him on the streets. “I’m kind of giving him a chance, I want to see what happens.”

In a separate ex parte (one side only represented) application on Friday, a mother got an interim barring order against her adult son.

He has had alcohol and drug issues for years but, after she got a barring order in 2022, he went for treatment and came out “a different man” for about a year, she said. He has relapsed since, the woman, becoming tearful, said.

She permitted him return home for a few days but that turned into months and he will not leave, she said. He is “abusive and aggressive”, she does not feel safe or respected in her home and he was physically abusive to her on an occasion last September, she said.

“I feel afraid,” she said. Grandchildren living with her are seeing this behaviour and she has “begged” her son to get a job and treatment. “I’m here with a heavy heart,” she said, weeping. “I love him.”

A woman who said she has pictures on her phone and doctors’ letters to support her claims that her ex partner had beaten her, fractured her spine, headbutted her and was “very possessive and controlling” during their four relationship got a protection order.

She was living in his home but she had left and is now in a hostel, she said. “I’m safe there now.”

In another case, a woman got a protection order against her estranged husband. “I go to bed scared,” she said.

Her husband moved into her home after they got married more than ten years ago and was verbally and physically abusive to her, including spitting at and pushing her and constantly undermining her, she said. He was “very controlling” in many aspects of her life, including financial.

She ended the relationship in Spring last year after he threatened to assault her and his status as an occupier of her house, a council house, has been removed, she said.

Since he left the property, he has tried to get her to resume the relationship, she said. He has a significant problem with alcohol and tablets and she felt sorry for him and had sometimes let him back into the house, she said.

Over the past month, he had become “very abusive” and she wanted no contact but he continues to come to the house, she said. He has no key but, after noticing he had removed a bolt from inside the front door, she changed the locks. He had insisted he had a room in the house and “will be back”. He has threatened to kill himself, saying he had “nothing to lose” and she is constantly fearful he might break in. “I just want it to stop.”