Category: 3. Business

David Abrahamovitch averages four cups of coffee a day; a fitting dedication to caffeine as the founder of Grind (and the father of two young children). But, he confesses, he wasn’t always a coffee aficionado. The first Grind café, opened in 2011, came about after Abrahamovitch, then aged 25, inherited his father’s mobile phone shop on London’s Shoreditch roundabout.

On the advice of a friend, he transformed the phone shop — where he’d once worked as a teen — into a Melbourne-style café. It was a success, but real growth came a decade later, when Grind launched online sales of pods and beans during Covid.

Today, despite having 13 cafés — including its newest branch in Dubai airport — online sales make up the lion’s share of the company’s revenue.

The business was last valued at £150mn, with annual revenue at £30mn for the 2023-24 year. It employs 350 staff.

“A lot of people get into coffee because they love coffee,” Abrahamovitch says. “I got into coffee because I had a building.”

You grew up on the outskirts of east London. What was your family background like?
My parents didn’t come from much at all, but both were smart and worked hard. In their generation, that was enough.

My mum was in the corporate world, and gave us stability. She was paying the mortgage and the school fees. My private education was amazing — it was cool to be clever there.

My dad was a classic entrepreneur, setting up shops across different industries. It was very much feast and famine, but it looked more fun than going to an office. My sister is also an entrepreneur now [running Dusk, the bar drinks app], so there’s a clear influence.

By the time I was born, my dad had moved into mobile phone repairs, spotting that it was going to become a big thing. From the age of 12, I would work all summer in the repair shop. I watched how to do sales calls, account management and customer engagement. I learned more from that about running a business than I did from my economics degree. I actually worked full-time during my final university year for a dispute resolution tech start-up, initially backed by [venture capital firm] Balderton.

I also did a few summer banking internships during my degree, but I knew immediately I had no interest in it as a career.

What inspired the first Grind store and how did you finance it?
When dad died, I had to figure out what to do with the shop he’d left behind on Shoreditch roundabout. It was a long-term lease, and the rent was £8,000 a quarter. My mum paid the rent for a few quarters, and I got a small amount from selling off the customer base. The shop had been wasted as a mobile store — the area had really transformed and my dad had always talked about changing it. When I mentioned it to my friend Kaz, from Melbourne, he said: “Let me put some money in. Let’s do a café with proper coffee.”

I didn’t have enough money to fit out the first one. I thought we would be doing it for £50,000 and it ended up costing nearly £200,000 because we had to do so much to make it commercial. I magicked a quarter of it up myself from credit cards and stocks. The rest we really had to beg, borrow and steal. I remember filling out business bank pages to borrow £20,000 for coffee machines and ended up having to agree personal guarantees. We even did some of the work ourselves, such as sanding down the stools — it was the first and the last time I’ve done any DIY. 

I called my mum the night before opening to ask for a few hundred pounds for the float. She literally came with a bank bag of £400 or £500 in five, 10 and 20 pence coins. That £500 really was the last of what we had. We budgeted for a loss in the few months, but, luckily, people came in. The flat white caught on. 

For the first few years, I couldn’t afford to go full-time at Grind. I stayed working full-time at the Balderton-backed tech start-up. It nearly killed me getting the first one open. Then in January 2014, we raised £1mn. At that point, I thought I owed it to the investors to go all in. Plus, by then, we were making £15,000 a week, helped further once we got our late licence and could serve espresso martinis after 5pm. 

When did the business really take off?
In 2019, after we did a £3.5mn crowdfunding raise, we invested in building out a new direct-to-consumer arm. I wanted to make high-quality coffee pods without the sustainability issues, and we launched that in January 2020. 

I thought maybe the new website could generate one store’s worth of revenue. But by April, during lockdown, we were doing crazy numbers. One minute I was telling all the staff they had to go home. Then my phone was exploding with Shopify notifications. We had £2mn in our account earmarked for two sites in Canary Wharf and the South Bank, but ended up putting it all into the direct-to-consumer part of the business.

We didn’t even have all the stuff we needed, but I was just like: “Do not stop, no one touch that website. I don’t care if we don’t have the stock. We’ll figure it out.”

There were moments when I thought we would lose the business completely because of Covid. It was crazy to go from that in March 2020 to 18 months later, the business being worth way more.

It was only after that point that Grind became a cohesive brand. Beforehand, it had just been Soho Grind or Shoreditch Grind and so on. We became a different entity [Kaz James was a co-founder for the first physical stores, but Abrahamovitch is the sole founder of the broader Grind entity].

What was Grind’s approach to cracking such a competitive sector?
We knew from the start we didn’t want any other coffee brands sold at our cafés. A roaster took pity on us and was like, sure, I’ll give you 20 bags a week of your own white label blend!

In terms of flavour profile, we haven’t really changed much since. If you go to speciality grocery stores and get an espresso, it’ll be quite flowery and delicate. And coffee guys like that. But the reality is 95 per cent of the coffees we’re selling are flat whites and cappuccinos. And that [type of] coffee doesn’t work that well with milk. So it was about having something where you can still really taste the coffee coming through the milk, with a little bit of chocolate and nuts — that little bit of natural sweetness. Italians think their way is the best, with their dark, fast, $1 espressos. I love Italians’ obsession with food and drink, but I don’t necessarily agree.

How do you manage your personal finances now?
The direct-to-consumer boom prompted us to bring in a big investor [Richard Koch, who co-founded LEK Consulting]. Since then, I’ve sold down my stake a little in various rounds to de-risk a bit. That’s allowed me to buy an amazing house and all the stuff that comes with having two kids. 

Apart from my house, the vast majority of my money is invested in exchange traded funds, stocks and a pension. I also have seven or so angel investments. I mostly back founders I know.

On paper, 80 per cent of my wealth is still in the business. I think I’ll grow it faster there than in the stock market. But equally, I’ve got two kids and I want to make sure that if, for some reason I’m no longer here, there’s plenty to pay the school fees and have a nice life. Although my wife [Victoria Beckham’s make-up artist] is successful in her own right.

I subscribe to the American attitude that keeping founders poor doesn’t help anyone. They’re just more stressed about the day-to-day and won’t want to take risks in the same way. My lead investor has been super supportive in terms of allowing me to take money off the table.

What do you spend money on?
My main splurge now is definitely holidays. I’m never going to be able to travel with a three- and a four-year-old again. Plus, they won’t want to go on holiday with me in another 10 years probably. When it comes to material things, it’s as everyone says — as soon as you can afford the stuff, you no longer want it.

H&M’s chief executive has urged European politicians to create a level playing field for fashion retailers in areas such as tax, chemical regulations, purchasing practices and workers’ rights to combat unfair competition from Chinese rivals such as Shein and Temu.

Daniel Ervér told the Financial Times that the Swedish fast-fashion retailer was on “a very long journey” towards increased profitability after ceding its crown as the world’s largest fashion chain to Zara’s Spanish owner in “an industry that is changing at a furious pace”.

He added: “I don’t think we have seen a level playing field. If you don’t pay taxes, if you don’t comply with chemical regulations, don’t adhere to purchasing practices, protect the social rights of workers, that’s not a responsible way of conducting business. There’s a responsibility for lawmakers to ensure there is a fair playing field, [otherwise] it will weaken our competitive strength as European companies.”

H&M has been increasingly squeezed from above by the likes of rivals Zara, and from below by cheaper rivals including Shein, Temu and Primark.

Zara has been pushing upmarket with tactics such as displaying limited-edition collections at high-profile events such as Paris Fashion Week and revamping stores designed by leading architects. H&M has followed its lead to some degree in a bid to set itself apart from cut-price online rivals such as Shein and Temu, which benefited from sales surges during the pandemic.

Ervér’s plan to turn around family-controlled H&M has focused on boosting profitability and putting the customer at the heart of its focus — both on display at the refitting of a central Stockholm store around the corner from its head office.

The store is airy for an H&M location, with more space between displays and fewer clothes on show, while items from its upmarket Studio and Atelier ranges as well as beauty products greet customers at the entrance. Shoppers can scan a code in the fitting room to ask an employee to bring them a different size or order anything out of stock for home delivery.

“Previously it was high-density but we wanted to break that. With the right product, we sell more with less. It becomes a more effective way of running the business,” said Johanna Klingspor, H&M’s head of creative development.

The revamp is already bearing some fruit as Ervér also targets cost control. Operating margins fell from more than 20 per cent in 2010 to just 3 per cent in 2022. They reached 8.6 per cent in the third quarter this year, up from 5.9 per cent a year earlier.

“What I recognised when stepping in is that this company has so much untapped potential . . . given how the competitive landscape has changed, we need to step up our game. We need to stop doing what doesn’t make a difference for the customer and really shift resources and money to what makes the difference,” said Ervér, who took over running H&M in February 2024.

Shareholders have given his plans a cautious welcome. Shares are up about 16 per cent this year, but were higher just before he took over as well as before the pandemic.

One top-10 shareholder said: “H&M were caught in between — not in Zara’s price point, and definitely not in Shein’s. They let the margins slide for too long.”

A fashion analyst added: “Ervér’s elevation strategy is taking the company in the right direction as it helps to reduce the H&M brand’s exposure to value fashion — the most competitive segment of the market and the most exposed to competition from not only the likes of Shein, but also second-hand platforms.”

But questions remain. H&M has historically sourced more of its clothes from Asia leaving it less nimble than Zara, which has more production closer to its biggest markets in Europe and the US. H&M’s need to discount some stock has led to volatility in both sales and gross margins.

“We need to continue to become quicker. Nearshoring is one piece of the puzzle, but there are many others,” Ervér said. His aim is to have some items on sale between six and 10 weeks after the initial idea.

The 44-year-old pointed to H&M presenting its latest collection at London Fashion Week for the first time in two decades. “That puts a lot of pressure on us to step up because you have the whole world, journalists, influencers, looking at you and assessing you.”

H&M is controlled by the family of Stefan Persson, son of the company’s founder, who owns shares carrying 83 per cent of voting rights. He has gradually increased his ownership in recent years and many observers in Stockholm expect him eventually to take the company private.

Ervér said he did not think it was “so provocative” to put customers ahead of investors. H&M had been “fortunate to have one large shareholder” and that satisfying all investors meant “being focused on the customer,” he added.

The retailer is also making a push into second-hand through its Sellpy platform. Some of its stores, such as the one in central Stockholm, have curated second-hand sections that attract younger shoppers. Ervér said: “We see it becoming an important part of the way that you express yourself and the way you shop second-hand becomes a complement to the existing business.”

Ervér disagrees with critics who say sustainability is incompatible with fast fashion: “To do fully sustainable collections for the richest people is not so difficult. The big challenge is to do it at scale.”

He is happy that H&M has broken the link between growth and emissions, going up in sales and down in greenhouse gases although he concedes “we are far from done”.

The Swedish group has a partnership with start-up Syre, a sister company to bankrupt battery maker Northvolt, to recycle polyester that recently expanded to include products from sporting goods group Nike.

Ervér said that few customers “want to pay more” for green products but that entrepreneurship, creativity and policy should drive the change because it “won’t happen organically”.

On competition, the H&M chief executive argued that the big disruption came a decade ago when digitalisation changed how people shop, as well lowering the barriers to entry in fashion. That opened up the market for a “completely new set of competitors” without physical stores.

“We need to make sure we leverage the strengths of having 500 in-house designers, the strength of curating the experience, and really facilitating the shopping experience,” Ervér added.

The U.S. dollar was heading for its worst weekly performance since late July on Friday as traders increased bets that the Federal Reserve will cut rates again next month.

The dollar has dropped this week as traders conclude that weakening labor data will lead to more rate cuts, even as many Fed policymakers express concern about still-elevated inflation.

“It feels like with the post-shutdown run of releases, it’s generally been soft … the data overall definitely leaned towards a cut,” said Eric Theoret, FX strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto.

The U.S. federal government is releasing a backlog of economic data after reopening from a record 43-day shutdown.

Fed funds futures traders are pricing in 87% odds of a cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s December 9-10 meeting, up from 71% a week ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Fed officials will enter a blackout period on Saturday ahead of the meeting. The dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major peers, was last down 0.09% at 99.44, and on track for a 0.61% weekly loss, its largest since July 21. ANTICIPATION AHEAD OF BOJ MEETING

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is due to speak on Monday, and traders will focus on whether he signals a likely rate increase at the BOJ’s December meeting, which could continue to lift the currency.

“There’s obviously a lot of anticipation around the Bank of Japan meeting in December. Will they hike rates? Will they not hike rates? And up until now, Ueda has been reasonably non-committal/dovish and hasn’t really signaled a December hike yet,” said James Lord, head of FX and emerging market strategy at Morgan Stanley.

“But with dollar-yen at these levels and the fiscal package that has been announced by the government, there’s a possibility that we will see a rate hike in the December meeting,” Lord said. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government on Friday finalised a $117 billion supplementary budget for this financial year to fund a massive stimulus package, most of which will be financed through new debt issuance.

The Japanese yen strengthened 0.14% against the greenback to 156.09 per dollar.

FOREX TRADING CALM AFTER CME OUTAGE An overnight outage due to a cooling issue at CME Group’s CyrusOne data centres halted trade on its widely-used currency platform and in stock and commodity futures. By 1335 GMT, trading had resumed after having been knocked out for over 11 hours, according to LSEG data.

Currency markets appeared largely unfazed by the outage during U.S. hours, which came in already light trading volumes after Thursday’s U.S. Thanksgiving Day holiday.

“Liquidity remains thin given that most participants executed month-end trades ahead of yesterday’s Thanksgiving holiday, and most major pairs are seeing choppy, but range-bound trading action with technical levels holding firm,” said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto.

The euro rose 0.06% to $1.1602.

Sterling was little changed at $1.3237 and heading for its best weekly performance since early August with a gain of 1.09%, after British Finance Minister Rachel Reeves revealed her long-awaited budget this week.

“Obviously (the budget) was garnering a lot of headlines, but it also felt like a lot of the bad news had been priced in. And overall, it feels like the market had a bit of a relief rally in the pound on Wednesday,” said Theoret.

Reeves fought back on Thursday against criticism of the government’s spending plans, which will fund extra welfare spending by raising the country’s tax burden to a post-World War Two high. The Canadian dollar extended gains after data showed that Canada’s economy grew at a much faster pace than expected in the third quarter as crude oil exports and government spending boosted economic activity. The loonie was last up 0.39% versus the greenback at C$1.398 per dollar.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 0.38% to $91,052.

(Reporting by Karen Brettell; Additional reporting by Ozan Ergenay; Editing by Ros Russell, Rod Nickel)

Story Continues

The TAM receptor family, which includes Tyro3, Axl, and MerTK receptors, has potential as a new therapeutic target for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) therapies, according to a new review published in Cell & Bioscience.¹

TAM receptors are broadly expressed throughout the body and seen as important regulators of immune homeostasis and inflammatory resolution, the authors explained. Previous research has shown that mice with a TAM deficiency experienced spontaneous chronic inflammation and autoimmune phenomena, which the authors said may be clinical precursors to RA.²

In humans, the investigators noted that TAM receptors serve as a key inhibitory feedback mechanism.¹

“Blocking TAM signaling results in severe defects in the clearance of ACs (apoptotic cells), exacerbates systemic inflammation, and induces overactivation of the immune system, thereby contributing to the onset and progression of RA,” the authors wrote.

Activation of TAM receptors, meanwhile, helps restore tissue integrity, in part by suppressing innate immune cell activation, enhancing AC clearance, and promoting tissue repair.

However, the authors said the different TAM receptors have different roles to play in RA. Axl and MerTK have been shown to have protective benefits in RA.³ Tyro3 appears to exacerbate inflammation and joint destruction, they said.

“This functional dichotomy suggests distinct therapeutic strategies: targeted activation of Axl/MerTK pathways may restore immune balance, whereas Tyro3 inhibition could mitigate synovitis and bone erosion,” the authors wrote, adding that a wave of research has been exploring ways to capitalize on our emerging understanding of TAM receptors.¹

One possible application is the use of soluble forms of TAM receptors (sTAM) as biomarkers for evaluating RA disease status, the authors said.

“These soluble variants are generated through metalloproteinase-mediated cleavage of the extracellular domains of their membrane-bound counterparts and are markedly elevated in the synovial fluid of RA patients, showing promise as indicators of disease activity, severity, and prognosis,” the authors said.

Studies have shown correlations between different sTAMs and clinical characteristics, including a link between serum sTyro3 levels and systemic inflammation. However, the authors said it will be important to come up with standardized detection methods for sTAMs, which they said require further investigation and validation.

A number of TAM-targeted therapies are currently in clinical development, the authors noted. The focus, they said, is largely on small molecules that can inhibit receptor-ligand binding and/or suppress kinase activity. The investigators said most of the development thus far has centered on oncology indications, but they said the therapies’ mechanisms of action suggest they can potentially be effective in autoimmune diseases.

Approximately 20 small-molecule TAM inhibitors have entered the clinical evaluation phase, of which 15 remain in active commercial development. They said oncological applications of the therapies have centered on using TAM inhibitors to mediate drug resistance as part of combination strategies.

Additionally, the authors said a diverse range of multiple small-molecule TAM inhibitors are also in the preclinical stage.

“These emerging compounds highlight the continuing diversification of TAM-targeting strategies in preclinical development,” they said.

Future therapeutic development in the RA context “should focus on receptor-specific modulators to overcome structural homology challenges and explore combination strategies with existing therapies,” the authors wrote.

The authors said understanding TAM signaling and its correlation with different diseases and stages will be necessary before drug developers can realize the full therapeutic potential of the TAM pathway.

References

1. Dai M, Yang X, Yao F, et al. From pathogenesis to therapeutic targeting: new insight into TAM receptors in rheumatoid arthritis. Cell Biosci. 2025;15(1):157. Published 2025 Nov 19. doi:10.1186/s13578-025-01503-w

2. Waterborg CEJ, Koenders MI, van Lent PLEM, van der Kraan PM, van de Loo FAJ. Tyro3/Axl/Mertk-deficient mice develop bone marrow edema which is an early pathological marker in rheumatoid arthritis. PLoS One. 2018;13(10):e0205902. Published 2018 Oct 18. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0205902

3. Gao L, He C, Yang A, et al. Receptor tyrosine kinases Tyro3, Axl, and Mertk differentially contribute to antibody-induced arthritis. Cell Commun Signal. 2023;21(1):195. Published 2023 Aug 3. doi:10.1186/s12964-023-01133-0

Brent crude oil futures were flat on Friday and US crude futures rose as drawn-out Russia-Ukraine peace talks kept geopolitical risks elevated and traders kept an eye on Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting for clues about potential output changes.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures resumed trading after being frozen due to a system outage at exchange operator CME Group, blamed on a cooling issue at CyrusOne data centres. Brent trades on the Intercontinental Exchange, or ICE.

Front-month Brent crude futures for January, which expire on Friday, were up 6 cents, or 0.09 per cent, at $63.40 a barrel at 12:44 p.m. EDT (1744 GMT). The more active February contract changed hands at $63.24, up 37 cents, or 0.59 per cent.

WTI crude traded at $59.47 a barrel, up 82 cents, or 1.4 per cent, from Wednesday’s close. There was no settlement on Thursday due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the US

Longest losing streak since 2023

Despite being up more than 1 per cent for the week, both contracts are headed for a fourth straight monthly loss, their longest losing streak since 2023, as expectations for higher global supply weighed on prices.

The strength of fuel refining profit margins has supported crude demand in some places, but the bearish impact of an expected oil surplus is pressuring prices, said Rystad analyst Janiv Shah.

US oil production rose to record highs in September, data from the Energy Information Administration showed on Friday, deepening concerns that the market is heading towards a surplus.

US crude oil output rose 44,000 barrels per day in September to a record 13.84 million bpd, according to the EIA data.

A Reuters survey of 35 economists and analysts showed respondents expect Brent to average $62.23 per barrel in 2026, down from October’s forecast of $63.15. The benchmark has averaged $68.80 per barrel so far in 2025, LSEG data showed.

Signs that a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia might be close pushed oil prices down sharply earlier this week, but they have recovered over the past three sessions as negotiations dragged on.

“Futures had been anticipating some sort of a peace agreement which has kept pressure on prices,” Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial, said in a note on Friday.

“Still, little is known at this time, and no agreement will likely mean even tighter sanctions on Russia’s oil exports.”

On Sunday, OPEC+ is likely to leave oil output levels unchanged at its meetings and to agree on a mechanism to assess members’ maximum production capacity, two delegates from the group and a source familiar with the group’s talks told Reuters.

Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, is expected to lower its January crude price for Asian buyers for a second month to its lowest in five years, under pressure from ample supplies and the surplus outlook, sources told Reuters on Friday.

Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) has caught investor attention as upward revisions to earnings estimates suggest growing confidence in the company ahead of its next quarterly report. This has fueled renewed market activity around the stock.

See our latest analysis for Interactive Brokers Group.

After a strong showing in the latest session, Interactive Brokers Group’s stock reflects building momentum, with a 1-day share price gain of 1.29% and a robust 42.5% share price return so far this year. Despite some short-term fluctuations, the company’s longer-term track record remains impressive, boasting a 36.7% total shareholder return over one year and an enormous 385% over five years.

If you’re curious about what’s catching investor attention lately, it could be an ideal moment to broaden your scope and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

With upgraded analyst outlooks and a history of outperformance, is Interactive Brokers Group still trading at an attractive value, or has the market already factored in all of its future growth potential?

With a fair value estimate of $76.82 from the most widely followed narrative, Interactive Brokers Group’s last close of $65.02 stands notably below this projection. This intensifies the spotlight on the stock’s future prospects.

The introduction of new products and enhancements, such as the strengthened ATS with new liquidity providers and order types, enhancements to the IBKR Financial Advisor Portal, and the launch of securities lending for Swedish stocks, suggests potential for increased trading activity and higher commission revenue. Record client credit balances at $107.1 billion, up 36% over last year, indicate a strong trust in the platform and substantial funds availability for trading, possibly leading to higher net interest income from margin loans as clients leverage their positions.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know what’s powering this aggressive price target? The secret may lie in new product launches and surging client assets. But there is a bold forecast for future profit margins and growth rates hidden beneath the surface. Find out what assumptions drive this valuation narrative and see if you agree with the analyst consensus.

Result: Fair Value of $76.82 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, unexpected shifts in global interest rates or intensifying competition in key markets could challenge Interactive Brokers Group’s growth trajectory and valuation outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this Interactive Brokers Group narrative.

Looking from a different angle, Interactive Brokers Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.6x, which is higher than both its industry peers at 23.6x and a market fair ratio of 21.1x. The gap signals the market may be pricing in a lot of future optimism, which could create valuation risk if expectations shift. Could a high rating eventually align with the company’s long-term reality?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

If you have a different perspective or want to dive into the numbers yourself, it’s easy to craft your own storyline in just minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Interactive Brokers Group research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

Smart investors never settle for one opportunity. Expand your outlook and seize potential winners before the crowd does with these powerful ways to generate new ideas on Simply Wall Street:

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include IBKR.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

What’s going on here?

China’s yuan is on its best run in years, but the country’s central bank already looks like it’s trying to tap the brakes.

What does this mean?

The onshore yuan is on track for a fourth straight monthly gain versus the dollar – its longest winning streak in four years – after touching a 13‑month high. Both the onshore and offshore yuan are up solidly this year, by about 3.2% and 3.7% against the dollar as of early Friday. But traders say that strength doesn’t quite square with China’s softer backdrop, with recent data pointing to weak domestic demand and factory activity still under scrutiny. The rally is mostly riding on a broadly weaker dollar, which is heading for its worst week in four months, with thin US Thanksgiving trading exaggerating moves. That leaves the People’s Bank of China in a tricky spot, and it’s pushing back by setting its daily midpoint fix weaker than market models suggest for a second day in a row, using its 2% trading band to lean against further gains.

Why should I care?

For markets: Currency moves are shouting more than the economy is whispering.

The yuan’s climb is coming even as China’s money markets loosen, with the volume‑weighted overnight repo rate down to around 1.29% – its lowest level in more than two years. Easier cash conditions and ongoing policy support usually point to a weaker, not stronger, currency, which is why the PBOC seems wary of letting the yuan run too far. Morgan Stanley reckons the real driver from here will be the dollar and the Fed, and expects the yuan to gradually strengthen toward 7.0 per dollar by mid‑2026, before easing slightly to roughly 7.05 by the end of that year. In the short term, though, traders are zeroing in on November factory data and the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference – two events that could jolt Chinese stocks, bonds, and regional currencies.

The bigger picture: A stronger yuan does not mean a stronger China just yet.

A firmer yuan can help tamp down imported inflation and project confidence, but it can also squeeze exporters at a time when China’s recovery is still fragile. Recent indicators have underscored weak domestic demand, right as policymakers try to shore up growth with targeted easing and looser funding conditions. That tension helps explain why the PBOC seems comfortable with relative currency stability, but not with an unchecked rally driven mainly by a wobbly dollar. For global investors and governments, how China manages that balance between growth, currency control, and capital flows into 2025 and 2026 will influence trade patterns, commodity demand, and how other Asian central banks steer their own exchange rates.

A newly validated noninvasive scoring tool has shown superior performance in identifying metabolic dysfunction–associated steatohepatitis (MASH) patients with advanced liver fibrosis, offering a potential step forward in reducing reliance on biopsy and improving risk stratification in the most common chronic liver disease worldwide.¹

The findings, published by researchers in Spain in Biomarker Research, confirmed that the BMP8A Fibrosis Score (BFS) more accurately classifies patients with severe fibrosis than several widely used diagnostic algorithms while eliminating the grey-zone results that often complicate clinical decision-making.

Although liver biopsy remains the gold standard for staging fibrosis, it is invasive, costly, and impractical to perform routinely. Existing noninvasive scoring systems, such as the Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) Index, NAFLD Fibrosis Score (NFS), Hepamet Fibrosis Score (HFS), and AST-to-Platelet Ratio Index (APRI), are widely used but have limitations, explained the researchers. Many patients fall into intermediate “grey zones,” where results are inconclusive and further testing is required. Variability in sensitivity and specificity across clinical settings further limits their reliability.

Researchers previously identified circulating bone morphogenetic protein 8A (BMP8A) as a promising biomarker after observing that serum levels rise progressively with fibrosis severity.² Building on these earlier findings, the team developed the BFS, which integrates BMP8A concentration with patient age and platelet count. In its initial derivation study, BFS showed encouraging accuracy in distinguishing advanced fibrosis in patients with biopsy-confirmed MASH.

To validate the score in an independent population, investigators analyzed serum BMP8A levels in 302 patients with MASH across 7 university hospitals in Spain. Of these, 171 had no or mild fibrosis (F0-F2), and 131 had advanced fibrosis (F3–F4). Serum BMP8A concentrations were significantly higher in patients with advanced fibrosis, averaging 339.6 pg/mL compared with 230.5 pg/mL in earlier-stage disease, with a clear stepwise increase across fibrosis stages.

Diagnostic accuracy was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves and compared directly against other noninvasive scores. BMP8A alone had an AUROC of 0.669, while the composite BFS achieved 0.750, outperforming FIB-4 (0.747), HFS (0.723), APRI (0.706), and NFS (0.650). Although not dramatically higher, BFS delivered the strongest overall accuracy and, crucially, provided a single cutoff value of 0.46. Unlike competing scores that rely on dual thresholds and create indeterminate zones, BFS eliminates ambiguous results.

Using that cutoff, BFS correctly classified 70.9% of patients with advanced fibrosis, with a specificity of 80.7% and a positive predictive value (PPV) of 69.7%. Its negative predictive value (NPV) of 71.5% and likelihood ratio profile (LR+ 3.0; LR– 0.5) supported both ruling in and ruling out advanced disease. In contrast, FIB-4 at its commonly used ≥2.67 threshold correctly identified only 63.6% of advanced cases and misclassified a substantial proportion due to false negatives and indeterminate outputs. HFS and APRI performed similarly or worse, especially when restricted to higher cutoffs, and NFS showed the lowest diagnostic utility in this cohort.

By eliminating grey-zone classifications, BFS categorized 63.9% of the cohort as F0–F2 and 36.1% as F3–F4, providing a decisive result in every case. The authors noted that this feature may be particularly important in clinical trial screening, where rapid and reliable fibrosis stratification is required without exposing patients to unnecessary biopsy. The group noted that the multicenter design of their study strengthens generalizability, reflecting diverse patient populations and real-world variability across laboratories and hospitals.

However, the researchers acknowledged limitations of their findings. Because BFS requires ELISA-based measurement of serum BMP8A, it may be costlier and less accessible than scores derived exclusively from routine laboratory data.

“This drawback parallels other specialized biomarkers, such as MACK3, which improve accuracy but require additional assays, sometimes not available in commercial laboratories, as is the case with BFS,” wrote the researchers.

They emphasized that additional validation in broader populations, inter-laboratory reproducibility studies, and commercial assay availability will be necessary before widespread adoption. They also noted that BFS, like other biomarkers, should be interpreted alongside imaging tools such as elastography, which continue to play an expanding role in fibrosis assessment.

References

1. Isaza SC, Fernández-García CE, Rojo D, et al. Validation of BMP8A fibrosis score to identify patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis with advanced liver fibrosis. Biomark Res. Published online November 19, 2025. doi:10.1186/s40364-025-00862-3

2. Marañón P, Isaza SC, Fernández-García CE, Rey E, Gallego-Durán R, Montero- Vallejo R, et al. Circulating bone morphogenetic protein 8A is a novel biomarker to predict advanced liver fibrosis. Biomark Res. 2023;11(1):46. doi:10.1186/s40364-023-00489-2