Category: 3. Business

Morningstar (MORN) shares have taken investors on a ride over the past year, with returns down nearly 38% in that span. Market watchers are looking closely at recent performance to gauge where value opportunities might emerge.

See our latest analysis for Morningstar.

After a tough year for Morningstar, the share price is showing some early signs of stabilizing, climbing 1.82% over the last trading day after months of negative momentum. While the company’s long-term total shareholder returns have held up better than recent dips might suggest, there is no denying that short-term sentiment remains cautious as investors look for signals of a turnaround.

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With shares trading well below long-term analyst price targets and recent results showing some signs of progress, the key question is whether Morningstar is undervalued at current levels or if the market is anticipating growth ahead.

Morningstar’s price-to-earnings ratio of 23.6x puts it just below the Capital Markets industry average, suggesting the market sees value but is not pricing in outsized upside. At the last close price of $215.49, this signals Morningstar trades at a slightly lower valuation than its peers, though not at a dramatic discount.

The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio reflects how much investors are willing to pay today for a dollar of earnings tomorrow. For financial services firms like Morningstar, the P/E ratio is often used as a barometer of growth expectations and profitability.

In this case, the P/E multiple is lower than the average for similar companies in the sector, meaning investors are not overpaying relative to the industry. However, compared to the estimated “fair” P/E of 14.1x, the current valuation could be seen as stretched if the company does not deliver higher earnings growth to justify the market’s premium. The current level is above what might be expected if the market consensus shifts closer to intrinsic value.

Explore the SWS fair ratio for Morningstar

Result: Price-to-Earnings of 23.6x (ABOUT RIGHT)

However, continued earnings volatility or slower revenue growth could pressure the stock, particularly if broader market sentiment remains defensive in the near term.

Find out about the key risks to this Morningstar narrative.

Taking another approach, our SWS DCF model presents a very different picture for Morningstar. Based on future cash flows, the model finds the current price of $215.49 is well above its fair value estimate of $93.05. This suggests Morningstar could be significantly overvalued at the moment. How do investors reconcile these sharply opposing signals as they look ahead?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Morningstar for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 875 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match – so you never miss a potential opportunity.

If you have a different perspective or prefer to dive into the numbers yourself, you can easily assemble your own narrative in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Morningstar.

Keep your portfolio ahead of the curve by uncovering top stocks in booming sectors and fast-changing markets. Now is your chance to stay a step ahead.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include MORN.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

• XPO, Inc. recently reported its third quarter 2025 earnings, posting sales of US$2.11 billion and net income of US$82 million, alongside the completion of a US$60 million share repurchase program.

• The company’s focus on technology-driven operational improvements and premium service expansion fueled margin gains, positioning XPO as the only public less-than-truckload carrier to expand margins this quarter despite a soft freight market.

• We’ll examine how XPO’s operational gains in premium and high-margin shipments influence its investment narrative and future performance outlook.

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To own XPO shares, I need to believe the company can sustainably expand margins and grow premium offerings amid freight market swings. The latest results reinforce XPO’s reputation for margin improvement, but the soft freight environment leaves near-term volume recovery and persistent cost pressures as the big catalysts and main risk. These quarterly updates do not materially alter either factor at this stage.

One news item fitting this context is XPO’s buyback program completion, with US$60 million in share repurchases this quarter. While this supports capital return, it does not address industry-specific risks such as margin pressures from labor costs, or the importance of future volume trends for earnings growth.

However, investors should not overlook the potential longer-term impact of freight market cyclicality if end-market demand remains weaker for longer periods than expected…

Read the full narrative on XPO (it’s free!)

XPO’s narrative projects $9.2 billion in revenue and $661.0 million in earnings by 2028. This calls for 4.7% annual revenue growth and a $316 million increase in earnings from the current $345.0 million.

Uncover how XPO’s forecasts yield a $141.52 fair value, in line with its current price.

Fair value estimates from three Simply Wall St Community members range from US$91.89 to US$141.52 per share, revealing a wide spread of views. Consider how XPO’s heavy concentration in the US less-than-truckload segment shapes these outlooks and impacts the company’s future resilience.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on XPO – why the stock might be worth as much as $141.52!

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes – extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your XPO research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

• Our free XPO research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual – the Snowflake – making it easy to evaluate XPO’s overall financial health at a glance.

Early movers are already taking notice. See the stocks they’re targeting before they’ve flown the coop:

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include XPO.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

Nintendo (TSE:7974) shares edged slightly lower today, slipping 1.4%. This move follows a relatively quiet trading session with no major company news released. Investors are left to weigh recent performance and valuation metrics.

See our latest analysis for Nintendo.

With Nintendo’s share price up more than 53% so far this year and an impressive 72% total shareholder return over the past twelve months, the recent slip feels more like a pause rather than a reversal. Momentum remains firmly on the company’s side after such a strong run, which suggests that investors are recalibrating expectations rather than abandoning the growth story.

If Nintendo’s recent surge has you curious about other opportunities, now is a great moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

But with shares trading near all-time highs, investors must now ask themselves whether Nintendo is undervalued after such gains, or if the market has already priced in every bit of its future potential.

Nintendo’s price-to-earnings ratio stands at 43.9x based on the latest close of ¥13,905, making it look expensive relative to both its peer group and the broader entertainment industry.

The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio measures how much investors are willing to pay for each yen of current earnings. For a major entertainment company with widely recognized franchises, the P/E highlights how the market is weighing sustained profit generation and future growth prospects.

At 43.9x, investors are pricing Nintendo shares above the average for direct peers (35.8x) and notably above the JP Entertainment industry average (22.5x). This premium suggests that the market is confident in the company’s blockbuster franchises and its ability to post future earnings growth. However, it also sets a higher expectation for future performance. Compared to the estimated fair P/E of 46.7x, the current multiple is relatively close to what the market could reasonably support given Nintendo’s growth profile.

Explore the SWS fair ratio for Nintendo

Result: Price-to-Earnings of 43.9x (OVERVALUED)

However, risks remain, such as slowing profit growth or negative surprises in upcoming earnings, which could quickly test investor conviction in Nintendo’s rally.

Find out about the key risks to this Nintendo narrative.

While Nintendo looks expensive on earnings multiples, our SWS DCF model suggests a different story. According to this approach, the shares are currently trading well above our fair value estimate. This challenges the market’s optimism and raises the question: is sentiment running ahead of fundamentals?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Nintendo for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 877 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match – so you never miss a potential opportunity.

If you see things differently or want to reach your own conclusions, you can dive into the numbers and craft your own take in just a few minutes using our tools. Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward investors are optimistic about regarding Nintendo.

Don’t let Nintendo’s story be the last opportunity you act on. There is a world of high-potential stocks waiting that you do not want to miss.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include 7974.T.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

JFrog (FROG) captured market attention after releasing third quarter results that beat expectations on revenue and earnings. Cloud revenue jumped 50% year over year, which reflects broader adoption across enterprise customers.

See our latest analysis for JFrog.

Following these blowout results, JFrog’s share price has soared, jumping nearly 27% in a single day and delivering a 95% year-to-date share price return. That momentum reflects investor excitement about cloud growth, product innovation, and a brighter outlook, even as some long-term holders are still just above breakeven on a five-year total shareholder return basis.

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Yet with share prices approaching new highs and analyst targets, it raises an important question: is JFrog still undervalued after this rally, or has the market already priced in most of its future growth potential?

With JFrog last closing at $60, the most widely followed narrative puts fair value at $56.44, just under current levels. This sets up a lively debate about whether the rally has sprinted beyond reasonable expectations, given where growth and profitability might land in the coming years.

Continued product expansion and innovation targeting advanced security features, ML model lifecycle management, and new pricing packages position JFrog to raise contract values and further penetrate its growing addressable market. This supports both revenue acceleration and long-term earnings growth as digital transformation intensifies across industries.

Read the complete narrative.

Wondering which bold forecasts are fueling this premium valuation? The narrative builds a case on aggressive top-line growth and a dramatic turn-around in profitability. See the concrete assumptions that drive this punchy fair value and decide if they stack up to reality.

Result: Fair Value of $56.44 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, slowing cloud migration or rising competition in security could dampen JFrog’s growth outlook and challenge the assumptions behind these bullish forecasts.

Find out about the key risks to this JFrog narrative.

If you see things differently or want to follow your own hunches, it’s easy to dive in and craft your own take in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your JFrog research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Expand your investment playbook right now by targeting the boldest opportunities screeners reveal. These picks can give you an informed edge and help you avoid missing the next breakout star.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include FROG.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

• Alarm.com Holdings recently reported third quarter 2025 results, surpassing revenue and earnings expectations and raising full-year guidance with projected total revenue of US$1.00 billion.

• The company’s highlighted expansion through the acquisition of CHeKT and deepened partnerships in its Energy Hub segment underlines its focus on broadening market presence and recurring SaaS revenue streams.

• With upgraded guidance and enhanced product offerings, we’ll explore how Alarm.com’s business expansion efforts influence the investment narrative going forward.

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To be a shareholder in Alarm.com Holdings, you need to believe in the company’s ability to consistently grow its cloud-based SaaS revenues while expanding across residential, commercial, and energy management markets. The latest quarterly results and raised guidance provide support for the key short-term catalyst of recurring revenue growth, with little immediate change to the biggest risk, margin pressure tied to hardware-related costs and supply chain volatility.

Among recent announcements, Alarm.com’s acquisition of CHeKT stands out, directly strengthening its commercial and residential capabilities through enhanced remote video services, aligning squarely with the recurring SaaS growth catalyst highlighted in its upgraded guidance. This move complements the company’s progress in expanded product offerings and deeper partner integrations noted in the latest earnings.

However, on the other side of the coin, investors should consider the risk that increased hardware tariffs and potential supply chain issues…

Read the full narrative on Alarm.com Holdings (it’s free!)

Alarm.com Holdings is projected to reach $1.1 billion in revenue and $161.6 million in earnings by 2028. This outlook assumes a 4.1% annual revenue growth rate and a $32 million increase in earnings from current earnings of $129.5 million.

Uncover how Alarm.com Holdings’ forecasts yield a $68.71 fair value, a 38% upside to its current price.

Three fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community range from US$60.63 to US$78.16 per share. With participants holding varied outlooks, consider how margin volatility from rising hardware costs could influence future results.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Alarm.com Holdings – why the stock might be worth just $60.63!

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes – extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Alarm.com Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.

• Our free Alarm.com Holdings research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual – the Snowflake – making it easy to evaluate Alarm.com Holdings’ overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include ALRM.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

• On October 30, 2025, Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. announced a 7% increase in its quarterly dividend to US$0.48 per share for Q4 2025 and reported record futures trading volumes, rising open interest, and mixed third-quarter results with higher adjusted earnings and continued buybacks.

• The combination of strong trading activity, ongoing returns to shareholders, and growth in key business lines demonstrates the company’s ability to generate cash and adapt amid shifting market conditions.

• We’ll explore how record futures open interest and sustained revenue growth may reshape Intercontinental Exchange’s investment narrative and outlook.

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To be a shareholder in Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), you need to believe in the company’s ability to deliver steady earnings and cash flow through diverse trading, data, and technology services, even as market cycles and competitors evolve. The latest news of higher dividends, share buybacks, and record futures volumes reinforces underlying strengths, but in the short term does not completely offset the key risk posed by heavy reliance on energy and commodity markets, which remain cyclical and vulnerable to external shocks or regulatory changes.

Among recent developments, ICE’s announcement of a 7% dividend increase to US$0.48 for Q4 2025 stands out as especially relevant. This boost in shareholder returns underscores the company’s confidence in ongoing profit generation, even as revenue in some segments showed mixed performance and external conditions remain unpredictable for core markets.

By contrast, investors should also consider the ongoing risk of regulatory shifts or sudden drops in energy trading volumes, especially since…

Read the full narrative on Intercontinental Exchange (it’s free!)

Intercontinental Exchange is expected to reach $11.4 billion in revenue and $4.1 billion in earnings by 2028. This outlook is based on analysts anticipating a 5.7% annual revenue growth rate and a $1.1 billion increase in earnings from the current $3.0 billion.

Uncover how Intercontinental Exchange’s forecasts yield a $192.38 fair value, a 29% upside to its current price.

Six community members on Simply Wall St estimate ICE’s fair value between US$115.65 and US$192.38 per share. Despite these wide-ranging views, reliance on cyclical energy and commodity markets could weigh on overall confidence in the company’s profit growth, so you should compare multiple viewpoints before deciding.

Explore 6 other fair value estimates on Intercontinental Exchange – why the stock might be worth 22% less than the current price!

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes – extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

Markets shift fast. These stocks won’t stay hidden for long. Get the list while it matters:

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include ICE.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

Nov 8 (Reuters) – U.S. payment firms Visa (V.N), opens new tab and Mastercard (MA.N), opens new tab are nearing a settlement with merchants that aims to end a 20-year-old legal dispute by lowering fees stores pay and giving them more power to reject certain credit cards, the Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday, citing people familiar with matter.

Reporting by Abu Sultan in Bengaluru; Editing by Leslie Adler