Category: 3. Business

Annual inflation rose to a 16-month high of 3.8% in October, adding to pressure on the government as it seeks to make savings across the public sector.

When governments, whether Commonwealth, state or local, increase spending it adds to inflation. Opinions differ on whether Commonwealth spending makes a significant difference. Opposition finance spokesperson Jane Hume argues it does; Treasurer Jim Chalmers countering “the Reserve Bank hasn’t mentioned that in their recent statements”.

Reducing government spending will, however, help curb inflation. It may be one of the motives for a reported federal government decision to seek budget cuts of up to 5% across its departments and agencies.

Finance Minister Katy Gallagher has denied the reports, saying in question time:

the idea that we are imposing a 5% cut on agencies is incorrect. […] What we have asked agencies to do is to think about […] all the programs they administer and to consider whether they are still priorities.

Put like that, it is normal budget process. Departments are always asked to consider priorities.

If, however, the report of a 5% savings target is true, we will likely see cuts to various kinds of departmental spending including salaries, overtime, consultants, IT and travel.

Cuts such as these, although hard for the public service, would be welcome for the Reserve Bank. Then Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe put the case bluntly in a 2023 speech that fiscal policy (that is, government tax and spending) should align better with monetary policy (setting interest rates) to support economic growth.

What the inflation report shows

The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics report showed inflation over the year to October rose to 3.8%, up from 3.6% in the year to September.

The largest contributors to annual inflation were the things people notice the most: housing (up 5.9%), food and beverages (3.2%), and recreation (3.2%). The housing component was driven by a 37.1% jump in electricity costs as some state energy rebates unwound.

It means cost of living will remain front-of-mind for voters and politicians.

The group with the lowest increase in prices was communications (up 0.8%). This reflects the highly competitive structure of the telecommunications industry and the impact of technological change.

The annual figure was also affected by a negative inflation number from October 2024 dropping out of the annual calculations.

The new, complete CPI

This is the first release of the improved “complete” monthly consumer price index (CPI). Previously, the monthly update was called an “indicator” because it covered fewer goods and services than the long-running quarterly CPI report.

But even the improved monthly series will be more volatile than the quarterly report.

Underlying inflation, which takes out the items with the most extreme price changes and is called the “trimmed mean”, was 3.3% in October. This was only marginally changed from 3.2% in September.

This measure is generally a better guide to the ongoing trend in inflation, but it too remains above the Reserve Bank’s 2–3% target band.

What does it mean for my mortgage?

At its meeting earlier this month, the Reserve Bank board considered the most recent forecasts prepared by its staff. These implied that if the central bank cut interest rates again, as markets were expecting, underlying inflation was “expected to be above 3% until the second half of 2026”. But if they left interest rates unchanged, inflation would be “settling closer to the midpoint” of the 2–3% inflation target.

The implication was that the Reserve Bank would not be cutting (or raising) rates unless incoming economic data was sufficiently dramatic to change the forecasts materially. Today’s data would probably not be regarded as being sufficiently dramatic.

The Reserve Bank regards the underlying “trimmed mean” measures of the monthly and quarterly inflation rates as the more important. But it will still be concerned about today’s high “headline” number.

Expectations matter

Most economists expect the central bank to leave rates on hold for several months at least.

Media stories about high inflation may lift inflationary expectations in the community. If businesses think suppliers and competitors are raising prices, they are more likely to do so themselves. And if union leaders think prices are rising faster than wages (currently growing by 3.4%), they may be more likely to push for higher wage increases.

Some of the change between September and October could have arisen from the Bureau of Statistics adopting a new methodology, expanding the sample of prices of goods and services it measures. The bureau did not say how much of an impact this has had. It complicates the picture for the Reserve Bank and makes it even more likely they will adopt a “wait and see” approach.

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Venture Global has accused Shell of waging a “three-year campaign” to damage its liquefied natural gas business, as a boardroom battle to dominate the market for the super-chilled fuel heats up.

In an note to staff obtained by the Financial Times, the US company’s co-founders Michael Sabel and Robert Pender blasted Shell’s “misguided decision” to appeal a recent arbitration loss to Venture Global, labelling it the actions of an “upset” industry incumbent.

“[Shell’s] action relies on completely baseless claims and is an unfortunate continuation of their three-year campaign to damage Venture Global. This behaviour should be very concerning to Shell’s employees, board of directors and shareholders,” read the email, which was sent as a Thanksgiving message to the LNG company’s 2,000 employees.   

The letter also toasts Venture Global’s success in signing $28bn in customer supply deals in Japan, Greece and Spain in the past month, saying it would face down competitors to enable it to become the “single largest LNG producer” in the world.

Venture Global has had a tumultuous year after battling arbitration cases filed by some of its largest customers, including Shell, BP and other European companies.

They alleged the US LNG provider breached supply contracts by failing to deliver shipments under long-term supply contracts, instead selling them on the spot market to profit from higher prices triggered by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Venture Global denies it violated the contracts, arguing it was not obliged to ship the gas because its export plant on the US Gulf coast had not started commercial operations. The company had declared force majeure on its contractual commitments because its facility’s power supply needed repair.  

In August, Venture Global defeated Shell at the International Chamber of Commerce. But in October it lost a separate case against BP, which is seeking damages worth in excess of $1bn.

Earlier this month Shell challenged its arbitration defeat in a New York state court in an attempt to overturn the panel’s finding.

In their note to employees, Venture Global’s co-founders said the company would continue to defend itself in the case.  

“There’s no question the competition in our industry is fierce, and its clear Venture Global is outcompeting the rest. While that undoubtedly will continue to upset some of the industry incumbents, our team will continue to work hard and deliver real results,” says the note.

Shell did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Venture Global’s legal difficulties have not limited its ability to sign new supply deals. Late on Tuesday the company said Tokyo Gas had signed an agreement to buy 1mn tonnes per annum of LNG over 20 years, starting from 2030 — the most recent supply deal signed by the producer.

 

We recently hosted a healthcare event at our Dubai offices titled “AI & Genomics in the UAE Healthcare Landscape – Opportunities, Supervision & Outcomes”. The event brought together a diverse panel of experts from across the healthcare ecosystem, including policymakers, clinicians, technology leaders, investors and advisors, for a dynamic discussion on how artificial intelligence (AI) and genomics are reshaping the region’s healthcare future.

Our discussions built on the themes of our earlier article, Genomics and the future of healthcare in the Middle East, by focusing on the practical, ethical and commercial questions that AI-driven genomics raises.

As a follow-up to this insightful panel, we invited our experts to share a few thoughts and highlights, based on the discussions exchanged during the event but also with an eye to the future outlook of AI & genomics in the UAE.

From policy to practice: the UAE’s positioning

A recurring theme is the UAE’s ability to rapidly translate national vision into tangible outcomes. As one panellist, Dr. Narges Sheikhansari, observed:

Both the Emirati Genome Programme and AI partnerships through platforms such as M42 are examples of how the UAE is not merely keeping pace but beginning to set the pace in healthcare innovation.

 

Opportunities in the next 12–24 months

Panelists agreed that immediate opportunities lie in applying AI to diagnostics, screening and early detection. As PwC’s Health Consulting Partner, Ahmed Faiyaz mentions:

Genomic screening for markers associated with cancer, metabolic, and cardiac conditions remains a key near-term priority. Genetic counsellor Maria Axinte underscores the crucial role of genetic counselling within national initiatives:

Building collaboration and infrastructure

Effective collaboration between public and private stakeholders is seen as essential to scaling innovation. Suggestions include co-funded pilot programmes, integration of genomic services into insurance coverage and shared data infrastructure. Cross-collaboration between GCC and additional Middle Eastern countries allowing for data sets to be shared and analysed together could contribute to a significant advancement.

Ahmed Faiyaz highlighted Abu Dhabi’s HELM initiative as a positive example, noting the importance of aligning collaboration with broader economic benefits such as job creation and investment attraction.

Ethics, culture and data

Beyond opportunities, our experts unanimously stress the ethical and cultural sensitivities of deploying AI in genomics. Maria Axinte in particular notes:

Dr. Narges echoes the importance of careful positioning:

Investment priorities

While diagnostics remains a clear opportunity, panellists highlight the foundational role of data ecosystems.

Maria Axinte adds that rare disease diagnostics and reproductive genomics represent untapped areas where AI-driven tools could have transformative impact in the UAE context.

Cross-industry collaboration

Another element that all practitioners and stakeholders should duly consider is the importance of cross-collaboration as Ahmed Faiyaz correctly stresses: 

Clyde & Co’s perspective

As legal advisors, Clyde & Co recognises that this rapid innovation brings both opportunities and complexities. Regulatory frameworks governing genetic data, IP rights in AI-driven outputs and cross-border data transfers remain evolving areas of law.

Our team advises clients at the intersection of law, healthcare and technology, supporting on matters including:

• Regulatory compliance and licensing under UAE and GCC healthcare laws
• Data privacy, cybersecurity and genetic data governance
• Structuring joint ventures and investment in biotech ventures
• Supporting M&A activity and market entry in health tech

Looking ahead

The discussions between experts underscore that the UAE is uniquely positioned to lead in AI-driven genomics, thanks to its ambitious national strategy, agile regulatory environment and diverse population base. The key challenge, and opportunity, will be ensuring that innovation is matched with robust governance, ethical safeguards and sustainable collaboration between public and private actors.

At Clyde & Co, we are proud to facilitate conversations at this frontier and to support clients navigating the legal and commercial dimensions of healthcare innovation in the region and working with key stakeholders to develop frameworks that balance business objectives with patient and consumer interests.

For more information, or to discuss how Clyde & Co can support your healthcare and life sciences initiatives, please contact Dr. Roshanak Bassiri Gharb, Julia Ofer or Sinan Amso.

Thank you to our external contributors:

Dr Narges Sheikansari

Ahmed Faiyaz

Maria Axinte

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The share of electronic trading in the nearly $30tn Treasury market has fallen to its lowest level in eight years, as exotic Wall Street bets on US debt push investors to make more trades manually.

Almost half of all trading in Treasuries this year has been done by one-to-one messaging or over the telephone in transactions too large and complex to be conducted without human involvement — the biggest share since 2017, according to industry research group Crisil Coalition Greenwich.

The comeback of so-called voice trading — which had been falling as a share of overall Treasury trading for decades — reflects the growing importance of what are known as package trades, often conducted by hedge funds.

“The volume growth [in voice trading] is coming in large part from these large package trades that are executed manually,” said Kevin McPartland, Coalition Greenwich’s head of market structure and technology research.

Academics and analysts say hedge funds are among the primary users of package trades, which include strategies such as the basis trade and interest rate swaps that demand direct contact between the two sides of a transaction.

“The increased volume of package trades is very likely ascribable to hedge funds that are arbitraging the cash-futures basis and now sizeable swap spreads,” said Darrell Duffie, a professor at Stanford University who is an expert in Treasury market structure.

“As to why this has generated relatively more voice trades than electronic trades . . . I would guess this is [because] the three legs of basis trades are executed separately,” he said.

Coalition’s data shows that for this year to the end of October, 54 per cent of the notional value of Treasury trading was placed electronically, down from a peak of 67 per cent in the full year of 2019.

Instead, a growing share of Treasury trading has involved complex, multi-step wagers such as the highly leveraged hedge fund strategies that many analysts say exacerbated the turmoil that hit the Treasury market after US President Donald Trump’s “liberation day” tariff blitz in April.

Manual trading had been in decline for decades, as advances in technology enable more and more transactions to be done by machines interacting with other machines.

But the growth of electronic trading is happening at a slower pace than the growth of the overall market. Voice trading, meanwhile, has started to grow more quickly.

It is commonly used in the basis trade, for example, in which hedge funds exploit differences in price between a cash Treasury bond and its equivalent futures contract. While such differences tend to be small, hedge funds borrow heavily in short-term lending markets to fund their bets, turning small differences into large profits.

The complexity and the pricing of these transactions mean that they are typically done over the phone or through messaging chats.

Since 2020, Coalition Greenwich has calculated the breakdown of trading by measuring the volume at big electronic trading venues such as Tradeweb and Bloomberg, as well as trading conducted directly between banks and clients against the total value of Treasuries traded.

The use of electronic trading on Wall Street has been gaining ground for decades, initially with the buying and selling of equities. This shift has given rise to so-called non-bank liquidity providers such as Citadel Securities and Jane Street. These firms have captured market share at the expense of large investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase, which had traditionally dominated Wall Street market making.

“We’re seeing growing demand for new ways to access electronic liquidity, with trade sizes increasing,” said Michael de Pass, global head of rates trading at Citadel Securities.

“That being said, our clients continue to want to execute larger trades with us via voice and that requires a strong human element of trust and comfort. This is a dynamic that we believe will continue to exist in the market.”

Fixed income markets, including the giant Treasury market, have been slower to embrace electronic trading because of their more opaque pricing systems and complex structures. While a company will typically have just one traded stock, for example, it may have multiple tradeable bonds of various maturities.

Nevertheless, the parameters of what can be done electronically have expanded. Two decades ago, a rough rule of thumb was that Treasury trades of more than $50mn needed to be done over the phone. This has since swelled to about $250mn.

Platforms such as Tradeweb say the trend towards electronification is still well under way in the Treasury market.

Bhas Nalabothula, head of US institutional rates at Tradeweb, said the volume of Treasury trading conducted on the platform had grown fivefold since 2017, while turnover on the total Treasury market had doubled over the same period.

“The trend towards more electronic trading in Treasures is unmistakable — it is a one-way train and there is no going back,” he said.

SYDNEY, Nov 26 (Reuters) – A senior Australian central banker said on Wednesday the country’s financial conditions were influenced by global factors, with low equity risk premia and credit spreads suggesting conditions may be easier than otherwise.

In a speech in Sydney, Penelope Smith, head of international department at the Reserve Bank of Australia, said the cash rate is not the only influence on the cost of finance in Australia, but the extent of impact from international developments was highly uncertain.

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The structure of the financial system, which is dominated by banks, could mean the developments in capital markets are less important for financial conditions than in other economies like the United States, Smith said.

“There is a lot of uncertainty about where neutral rates are and where they are going. What we can perhaps conclude, though, is that they have not fallen since the pandemic and may have even risen,” she added.

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A substudy of the ANRS 174 DOXYVAC randomized trial found that men who have sex with men (MSM) using doxycycline postexposure prophylaxis (DoxyPEP) had significantly higher rates of high-level tetracycline-resistant Neisseria gonorrhoeae compared with MSM who did not use PEP, raising new concerns about antimicrobial resistance (AMR) associated with this prevention strategy. The analysis also identified a greater frequency of isolates with decreased cefixime susceptibility among DoxyPEP users, although all isolates remained fully susceptible to ceftriaxone and cefixime.¹

In the substudy, MSM receiving HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis were randomized to DoxyPEP (n = 362) or no-PEP (n = 183). Participants were tested for gonorrhea by culture and nucleic acid amplification testing at baseline and every 3 months. Minimum inhibitory concentrations were determined using Etest (Biomerieux) and interpreted per EUCAST guidelines, and whole-genome sequencing or PCR sequencing was performed on N gonorrhoeae isolates and NAAT-positive samples. Fisher’s exact tests were used for between-group comparisons.¹

From January 2021 to February 2023, the investigators obtained MIC data for 78 isolates and performed molecular analysis on 233 NAAT-only positive samples. All isolates were tetracycline-resistant, but high-level resistance mediated by the tetM gene occurred significantly more often in the DoxyPEP arm (35.5%) than in the no-PEP arm (12.5%) (p = .043). MIC distributions for ceftriaxone, fluoroquinolones, and azithromycin were similar across study arms. All isolates remained susceptible to ceftriaxone and cefixime, but isolates with decreased cefixime susceptibility associated with the mosaic penA34.007 allele were more common among DoxyPEP recipients (32.3% vs 10.0%; p = .033).¹

Investigators concluded that DoxyPEP use was associated with a significant increase in high-level tetracycline resistance and a higher prevalence of molecular markers linked to reduced cefixime susceptibility, emphasizing the need for close AMR surveillance as DoxyPEP adoption expands.¹

These findings align with a broader pattern of emerging gonococcal resistance documented in recent research. Contagion previously reported on Debio 1453, a first-in-class FabI inhibitor that demonstrated potent activity against multidrug-resistant and extensively drug-resistant N gonorrhoeae in preclinical models and has now entered first-in-human testing, underscoring the need for new therapeutic classes as traditional agents lose effectiveness.²

Similarly, a genomics-based strain-selection analysis for an upcoming oropharyngeal gonorrhea controlled human infection model excluded thousands of isolates due to clinically significant resistance, highlighting how AMR increasingly shapes prevention, treatment, and vaccine-evaluation strategies.³ Together, these complementary data reinforce that the rising AMR burden in N gonorrhoeae, including shifts associated with DoxyPEP, requires ongoing surveillance and the development of novel antimicrobial and prevention approaches.

By Sophia Abene

References

1.Bercot B, Assoumou L, Caméléna F, et. al. Antimicrobial drug-resistant Neisseria gonorrhoeae (GC) infections in men using doxycycline postexposure prophylaxis. A substudy of the ANRS 174 DOXYVAC trial, Clinical Infectious Diseases, 2025;, ciaf591, https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciaf591

2.Gerusz V, Regenass P, Rousseau Q, et al. The bactericidal FabI inhibitor Debio 1453 clears antibiotic-resistant Neisseria gonorrhoeae infection in vivo. Nat Commun 16, 8309 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-63508-w

3.Williams E, Low SJ, Pollock GL, et al. Selecting candidate Neisseria gonorrhoeae strains for oropharyngeal gonorrhoea human challenge: a genomics-based analysis of clinical isolates. Lancet Microbe. 2025;6(9):101105. doi:10.1016/j.lanmic.2025.101105