Category: 3. Business

• In Study 2 of the pivotal Phase 3 UP-AA clinical program, upadacitinib (RINVOQ^®) achieved the primary endpoint, demonstrating that 44.6% and 54.3% of patients with severe alopecia areata treated with upadacitinib 15 mg and 30 mg, respectively, reached 80% or more scalp hair coverage at week 24 as defined by the severity of alopecia tool (SALT) score ≤ 20¹
• Key secondary endpoints, including improvements in eyebrows and eyelashes, as well as the percentage of subjects with 90% or more scalp coverage (SALT ≤ 10) and complete scalp hair coverage (SALT=0) at week 24, were also met¹
• The safety profile in alopecia areata was generally consistent with that in approved indications, and no new safety signals were identified in this study¹
• Results from the parallel replicate study (Study 1) of the Phase 3 UP-AA clinical program are also expected in the third quarter of 2025

NORTH CHICAGO, Ill., July 30, 2025 /PRNewswire/ — AbbVie (NYSE: ABBV) today announced positive topline results from the first of two pivotal studies of the Phase 3 UP-AA clinical program evaluating the safety and efficacy of upadacitinib (RINVOQ^®; 15 mg and 30 mg, once daily) in adult and adolescent patients with severe alopecia areata (AA) with a mean baseline SALT score of 83.8 (approximately 16% scalp hair coverage).¹

In Study 2, both doses of upadacitinib achieved the primary endpoint, with 44.6% and 54.3% of patients treated with upadacitinib 15 mg and 30 mg, respectively, reaching 80% or more scalp hair coverage (SALT score ≤ 20) at week 24, compared to 3.4% of patients receiving placebo (p<0.001).¹

“Often misunderstood as a cosmetic issue, AA is a systemic immune-mediated disease that can cause total hair loss, involving the scalp, eyebrows and eyelashes. People living with AA may face difficulties in managing their disease, which can significantly affect their quality of life,” said Kori Wallace, M.D., Ph.D., vice president, global head of immunology clinical development, AbbVie. “UP-AA is the first pivotal program to have ranked and met the rigorous standard of SALT=0, indicating complete scalp hair regrowth. These data underscore AbbVie’s commitment to advancing novel treatments that have the potential to improve the lives of individuals with immune-mediated diseases.”

36.0% and 47.1% of patients treated with upadacitinib 15 mg and 30 mg, respectively, reached 90% or more scalp hair coverage (SALT ≤ 10), compared to 1.4% of patients receiving placebo at week 24 (p<0.001).¹ Additional key secondary endpoints that were met included percentage of subjects with improvements in eyebrows and eyelashes, as well as the percentage of subjects with complete scalp hair coverage (SALT=0) with both doses of upadacitinib at week 24.¹

“The sudden and often unpredictable hair loss people living with AA experience can profoundly impact their self-esteem and mental well-being,” said Arash Mostaghimi, M.D., M.P.A., M.P.H., associate professor of dermatology and vice chair of clinical trials and innovation, Brigham & Women’s Hospital, Harvard Medical School. “There is a pressing need for more treatments that help enable regrowth of scalp and non-scalp hair. I am encouraged by these results that demonstrate the potential of upadacitinib to be an important new treatment option.”

The safety profile of both doses of upadacitinib in the 24-week, placebo-controlled period (Period A) was generally consistent with that observed in approved indications.¹ Treatment-emergent serious adverse events occurred in 1.4% and 2.8% of patients in the upadacitinib 15 mg and 30 mg groups, respectively, and none in the placebo group.¹ Discontinuations due to treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs) occurred in 0.7% and 1.4% of subjects in the upadacitinib 15 mg and 30 mg groups, respectively, and none in the placebo group.¹ The most common TEAEs observed were acne, nasopharyngitis and upper respiratory tract infection.¹ Serious infections were reported infrequently with 0.7% in the upadacitinib 15 mg group and 1.0% in the upadacitinib 30 mg group, and none in the placebo group.¹ There were no adjudicated MACE, malignancies or deaths reported.¹ One adjudicated venous thromboembolism was reported in the upadacitinib 15 mg group in a patient with multiple risk factors.¹

Use of upadacitinib in AA is not approved and its safety and efficacy have not been evaluated by regulatory authorities.

About UP-AA Clinical Trial 

UP-AA M23-716 was conducted as a single protocol that includes two replicate pivotal studies (Study 1 and Study 2) with randomization, investigative sites, data collection, analysis and reporting independent for each study. The Phase 3 randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind studies evaluate efficacy and safety of upadacitinib in adult and adolescent subjects with severe alopecia areata. In Study 1 and Study 2 Period A, participants are randomized to one of three groups to receive upadacitinib 15 mg, upadacitinib 30 mg or placebo for 24 weeks. In Study 1 and Study 2 Period B, participants originally randomized to upadacitinib dose groups in Period A will continue their same treatment in Period B for 28 weeks. Participants originally randomized to placebo in Period A will either remain on placebo in Period B, or be randomized in one of two groups, based off of their SALT score at week 24. In total, Study 1 and Study 2 Periods A and B span 52 weeks. Participants who complete Study 1 or Study 2, can join Study 3 and may be re-randomized to receive 1 of 2 doses of upadacitinib for up to 108 weeks. The two trials randomized 1,399 participants with severe AA ages 12 to 64 across 248 sites worldwide. More information on this trial can be found at www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT06012240).

About RINVOQ

Discovered and developed by AbbVie scientists, RINVOQ is a JAK inhibitor that is being studied in several immune-mediated inflammatory diseases. In human leukocyte cellular assays, RINVOQ inhibited cytokine-induced STAT phosphorylation mediated by JAK1 and JAK1/JAK3 more potently than JAK2/JAK2 mediated STAT phosphorylation.² The relevance of inhibition of specific JAK enzymes to therapeutic effectiveness and safety is not currently known.

Upadacitinib (RINVOQ) is being studied in Phase 3 clinical trials for alopecia areata, hidradenitis suppurativa, Takayasu arteritis, systemic lupus erythematosus and vitiligo.^3,4,5,6,7

RINVOQ (upadacitinib) U.S. Uses and Important Safety Information¹

RINVOQ is a prescription medicine used to treat:

• Adults with moderate to severe rheumatoid arthritis (RA) when 1 or more medicines called tumor necrosis factor (TNF) blockers have been used, and did not work well or could not be tolerated.
• Adults with active psoriatic arthritis (PsA) when 1 or more medicines called TNF blockers have been used, and did not work well or could not be tolerated.
• Adults with active ankylosing spondylitis (AS) when 1 or more medicines called TNF blockers have been used, and did not work well or could not be tolerated.
• Adults with active non-radiographic axial spondyloarthritis (nr-axSpA) with objective signs of inflammation when a TNF blocker medicine has been used, and did not work well or could not be tolerated.
• Adults with giant cell arteritis (GCA).
• Adults with moderate to severe ulcerative colitis (UC) when 1 or more medicines called TNF blockers have been used, and did not work well or could not be tolerated.
• Adults with moderate to severe Crohn’s disease (CD) when 1 or more medicines called TNF blockers have been used, and did not work well or could not be tolerated.

It is not known if RINVOQ is safe and effective in children with ankylosing spondylitis, non-radiographic axial spondyloarthritis, ulcerative colitis, or Crohn’s disease.

• Adults and children 12 years of age and older with moderate to severe eczema (atopic dermatitis [AD]) that did not respond to previous treatment and their eczema is not well controlled with other pills or injections, including biologic medicines, or the use of other pills or injections is not recommended.

It is not known if RINVOQ is safe and effective in children under 12 years of age with atopic dermatitis.

It is not known if RINVOQ LQ is safe and effective in children with atopic dermatitis.

RINVOQ/RINVOQ LQ is a prescription medicine used to treat:

• Children 2 years of age and older with active polyarticular juvenile idiopathic arthritis (pJIA) when 1 or more medicines called TNF blockers have been used, and did not work well or could not be tolerated.
• Children 2 to less than 18 years of age with active psoriatic arthritis (PsA) when 1 or more medicines called TNF blockers have been used, and did not work well or could not be tolerated.

It is not known if RINVOQ/RINVOQ LQ is safe and effective in children under 2 years of age with polyarticular juvenile idiopathic arthritis or psoriatic arthritis.  

IMPORTANT SAFETY INFORMATION FOR RINVOQ/RINVOQ LQ (upadacitinib)

What is the most important information I should know about RINVOQ<*>?

RINVOQ may cause serious side effects, including:

• Serious infections. RINVOQ can lower your ability to fight infections. Serious infections have happened while taking RINVOQ, including tuberculosis (TB) and infections caused by bacteria, fungi, or viruses that can spread throughout the body. Some people have died from these infections. Your healthcare provider (HCP) should test you for TB before starting RINVOQ and check you closely for signs and symptoms of TB during treatment with RINVOQ. You should not start taking RINVOQ if you have any kind of infection unless your HCP tells you it is okay. If you get a serious infection, your HCP may stop your treatment until your infection is controlled. You may be at higher risk of developing shingles (herpes zoster).
• Increased risk of death in people 50 years and older who have at least 1 heart disease (cardiovascular) risk factor.
• Cancer and immune system problems. RINVOQ may increase your risk of certain cancers. Lymphoma and other cancers, including skin cancers, can happen. Current or past smokers are at higher risk of certain cancers, including lymphoma and lung cancer. Follow your HCP’s advice about having your skin checked for skin cancer during treatment with RINVOQ. Limit the amount of time you spend in sunlight. Wear protective clothing when you are in the sun and use sunscreen.
• Increased risk of major cardiovascular (CV) events, such as heart attack, stroke, or death, in people 50 years and older who have at least 1 heart disease (CV) risk factor, especially if you are a current or past smoker.
• Blood clots. Blood clots in the veins of the legs or lungs and arteries can happen with RINVOQ. This may be life-threatening and cause death. Blood clots in the veins of the legs and lungs have happened more often in people who are 50 years and older and with at least 1 heart disease (CV) risk factor.
• Allergic reactions. Symptoms such as rash (hives), trouble breathing, feeling faint or dizzy, or swelling of your lips, tongue, or throat, that may mean you are having an allergic reaction have been seen in people taking RINVOQ. Some of these reactions were serious. If any of these symptoms occur during treatment with RINVOQ, stop taking RINVOQ and get emergency medical help right away.
• Tears in the stomach or intestines. This happens most often in people who take nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) or corticosteroids. Get medical help right away if you get stomach-area pain, fever, chills, nausea, or vomiting.
• Changes in certain laboratory tests. Your HCP should do blood tests before you start taking RINVOQ and while you take it. Your HCP may stop your RINVOQ treatment for a period of time if needed because of changes in these blood test results.

Do not take RINVOQ if you are allergic to upadacitinib or any of the ingredients in RINVOQ. See the Medication Guide or Consumer Brief Summary for a complete list of ingredients.

What should I tell my HCP BEFORE starting RINVOQ?

Tell your HCP if you:

• Are being treated for an infection, have an infection that won’t go away or keeps coming back, or have symptoms of an infection, such as:

• Have TB or have been in close contact with someone with TB.
• Are a current or past smoker.
• Have had a heart attack, other heart problems, or stroke.
• Have or have had any type of cancer, hepatitis B or C, shingles (herpes zoster), blood clots in the veins of your legs or lungs, diverticulitis (inflammation in parts of the large intestine), or ulcers in your stomach or intestines.
• Have other medical conditions, including liver problems, low blood cell counts, diabetes, chronic lung disease, HIV, or a weak immune system.
• Live, have lived, or have traveled to parts of the country, such as the Ohio and Mississippi River valleys and the Southwest, that increase your risk of getting certain kinds of fungal infections. If you are unsure if you’ve been to these types of areas, ask your HCP.
• Have recently received or are scheduled to receive a vaccine. People who take RINVOQ should not receive live vaccines.
• Are pregnant or plan to become pregnant. Based on animal studies, RINVOQ may harm your unborn baby. Your HCP will check whether or not you are pregnant before you start RINVOQ. You should use effective birth control (contraception) to avoid becoming pregnant during treatment with RINVOQ and for 4 weeks after your last dose.
• There is a pregnancy surveillance program for RINVOQ. The purpose of the program is to collect information about the health of you and your baby. If you become pregnant while taking RINVOQ, you are encouraged to report the pregnancy by calling 1-800-633-9110.
• Are breastfeeding or plan to breastfeed. RINVOQ may pass into your breast milk. Do not breastfeed during treatment with RINVOQ and for 6 days after your last dose.

Tell your HCP about all the medicines you take, including prescription and over-the-counter medicines, vitamins, and herbal supplements. RINVOQ and other medicines may affect each other, causing side effects.

Especially tell your HCP if you take:

• Medicines for fungal or bacterial infections
• Rifampicin or phenytoin
• Medicines that affect your immune system

If you are not sure if you are taking any of these medicines, ask your HCP or pharmacist.

What should I avoid while taking RINVOQ?

Avoid food or drink containing grapefruit during treatment with RINVOQ as it may increase the risk of side effects.

What should I do or tell my HCP AFTER starting RINVOQ?

• Tell your HCP right away if you have any symptoms of an infection. RINVOQ can make you more likely to get infections or make any infections you have worse.
• Get emergency help right away if you have any symptoms of a heart attack or stroke while taking RINVOQ, including:
  • Discomfort in the center of your chest that lasts for more than a few minutes or that goes away and comes back
  • Severe tightness, pain, pressure, or heaviness in your chest, throat, neck, or jaw
  • Pain or discomfort in your arms, back, neck, jaw, or stomach
  • Shortness of breath with or without chest discomfort
  • Breaking out in a cold sweat
  • Nausea or vomiting
  • Feeling lightheaded
  • Weakness in one part or on one side of your body
  • Slurred speech
• Tell your HCP right away if you have any signs or symptoms of blood clots during treatment with RINVOQ, including:

• Tell your HCP right away if you have a fever or stomach-area pain that does not go away, and a change in your bowel habits.

What are other possible side effects of RINVOQ?

Common side effects include upper respiratory tract infections (common cold, sinus infections), shingles (herpes zoster), herpes simplex virus infections (including cold sores), bronchitis, nausea, cough, fever, acne, headache, swelling of the feet and hands (peripheral edema), increased blood levels of creatine phosphokinase, allergic reactions, inflammation of hair follicles, stomach-area (abdominal) pain, increased weight, flu, tiredness, lower number of certain types of white blood cells (neutropenia, lymphopenia, leukopenia), muscle pain, flu-like illness, rash, increased blood cholesterol levels, increased liver enzyme levels, pneumonia, low number of red blood cells (anemia), and infection of the stomach and intestine (gastroenteritis).

A separation or tear to the lining of the back part of the eye (retinal detachment) has happened in people with atopic dermatitis treated with RINVOQ. Call your HCP right away if you have any sudden changes in your vision during treatment with RINVOQ.

Some people taking RINVOQ may see medicine residue (a whole tablet or tablet pieces) in their stool. If this happens, call your HCP.

These are not all the possible side effects of RINVOQ.

How should I take RINVOQ/RINVOQ LQ?

RINVOQ is taken once a day with or without food. Do not split, crush, or chew the tablet. Take RINVOQ exactly as your HCP tells you to use it. RINVOQ is available in 15 mg, 30 mg, and 45 mg extended-release tablets. RINVOQ LQ is taken twice a day with or without food. RINVOQ LQ is available in a 1 mg/mL oral solution. RINVOQ LQ is not the same as RINVOQ tablets. Do not switch between RINVOQ LQ and RINVOQ tablets unless the change has been made by your HCP.

<*>Unless otherwise stated, “RINVOQ” in the IMPORTANT SAFETY INFORMATION refers to RINVOQ and RINVOQ LQ. 

This is the most important information to know about RINVOQ. For more information, talk to your HCP.

You are encouraged to report negative side effects of prescription drugs to the FDA. Visit www.fda.gov/medwatch or call 1-800-FDA-1088.

If you are having difficulty paying for your medicine, AbbVie may be able to help. Visit AbbVie.com/PatientAccessSupport to learn more. 

Please click here for the Full Prescribing Information and Medication Guide.

Globally, prescribing information varies; refer to the individual country product label for complete information.

About AbbVie
AbbVie’s mission is to discover and deliver innovative medicines and solutions that solve serious health issues today and address the medical challenges of tomorrow. We strive to have a remarkable impact on people’s lives across several key therapeutic areas including immunology, oncology, neuroscience and eye care – and products and services in our Allergan Aesthetics portfolio. For more information about AbbVie, please visit us at www.abbvie.com. Follow @abbvie on LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram, X (formerly Twitter) and YouTube.

Forward-Looking Statements
Some statements in this news release are, or may be considered, forward-looking statements for purposes of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The words “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “project” and similar expressions and uses of future or conditional verbs, generally identify forward-looking statements. AbbVie cautions that these forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Such risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, challenges to intellectual property, competition from other products, difficulties inherent in the research and development process, adverse litigation or government action, changes to laws and regulations applicable to our industry, the impact of global macroeconomic factors, such as economic downturns or uncertainty, international conflict, trade disputes and tariffs, and other uncertainties and risks associated with global business operations. Additional information about the economic, competitive, governmental, technological and other factors that may affect AbbVie’s operations is set forth in Item 1A, “Risk Factors,” of AbbVie’s 2024 Annual Report on Form 10-K, which has been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, as updated by its Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q and in other documents that AbbVie subsequently files with the Securities and Exchange Commission that update, supplement or supersede such information. AbbVie undertakes no obligation, and specifically declines, to release publicly any revisions to forward-looking statements as a result of subsequent events or developments, except as required by law.

 

 

SOURCE AbbVie

For patients with intermediate- to high-risk myelofibrosis, the combination of imetelstat (Rytelo) and ruxolitinib (Jakafi) may represent a promising strategy to enhance disease modification and deepen responses when introduced earlier in the treatment course, according to John Mascarenhas, MD.

In the second part of our interview, Mascarenhas shared preliminary findings from the phase 1/1b trial IMproveMF study (NCT02426086) presented at 2025 ASCO Annual Meeting, evaluating imetelstat in combination with ruxolitinib in patients with suboptimal response to ruxolitinib alone.

No dose-limiting toxicities (DLTs) were reported with the combination, and the recommended phase 2 dose of imetelstat was established at 8.9 mg/kg. The combination also led to symptom reductions and spleen volume reductions.

Mascarenhas is a professor of medicine at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, director of the Center of Excellence for Blood Cancers and Myeloid Disorders, and a member of The Tisch Cancer Institute in New York.

OncLive: What was the rationale for combining these two agents in patients with intermediate- to high-risk myelofibrosis?

Mascarenhas: We have all of this data now—and the ongoing phase 3 [IMpact-MF] trial [NCT04576156]—on the benefit of imetelstat as monotherapy. However, the field has definitely moved toward combination therapies in this setting. We’ve seen a lot of data demonstrating synergy and deeper responses, and I would argue it’s very similar here.

We have data showing that combining the two drugs [imetelstat and a JAK inhibitor] makes sense, and that data initially comes from preclinical studies demonstrating that there is biological synergy when you combine imetelstat with JAK inhibitors like ruxolitinib. Interestingly, the sequencing of the drugs actually had the most potent anticlonal activity in the lab.

We took that into the clinic to ask: Can we synergize? First, in this phase 1b study, is it safe, and can we identify a DLT? And second, can we enhance the activity seen with imetelstat monotherapy in the relapsed/refractory setting, where the biology is more advanced, by adding it earlier on in combination before patients [progress on a] JAK inhibitor?

The idea is to move treatment earlier in the disease course as a combination approach to achieve deeper, more meaningful responses. That’s the developmental trajectory.

What were the results from this study thus far?

This phase 1b study, at least the initial results we presented at ASCO 2025, enrolled 19 patients in a dose-escalation design. Four dose cohorts were evaluated in patients with myelofibrosis who were already on ruxolitinib for at least 48 weeks. Most patients had been on therapy for 12 to 15 months. Investigators determined there was a suboptimal response to ruxolitinib, and then imetelstat was added to that stable dose.

We didn’t observe any DLTs, so we escalated up to the highest dose of 8.9 mg/kg IV every 4 weeks, and found that the toxicity profile was quite favorable. We did not see significant additive non-hematologic or hematologic toxicities. In fact, only one patient experienced grade 3/4 thrombocytopenia, and no patients came off study due to hematologic toxicity.

Overall, the regimen proved to be quite well tolerated in combination, and we were able to reach the full dose of [imetelstat].

We also saw some preliminary efficacy signals [in terms of] spleen responses, symptom responses, and reductions in driver mutations, including JAK2, CALR, and subclonal high-risk mutations like ASXL1. Again, we’ve seen this kind of effect with imetelstat as monotherapy in the relapsed/refractory setting, but this is the first data showing tolerability and potential clinical impact when combined earlier with ruxolitinib.

As we continue to follow patients and expand the cohort, we’ll gather more efficacy data, including changes in bone marrow fibrosis and cellularity, circulating CD34-positive cells, and other biomarkers. Most importantly, we’ll evaluate whether patients can stay on this drug and derive clinical benefit. This is where the phase 1b expansion becomes critical.

There is also a part 2 of this study now ongoing, which is combining imetelstat with ruxolitinib in the JAK inhibitor–naive population. This aligns with other trials looking to combine therapies up front, earlier in the disease course.

What would you say are the potential future clinical implications of these data?

Imetelstat is already an approved drug for transfusion-dependent, lower-risk MDS based on the phase 3 IMerge trial [NCT02598661]. It has clear potential to move forward as monotherapy in the relapsed/refractory myelofibrosis setting, and that’s the goal of the IMpact-MF.

This new combination study may also offer a pathway to use the drug earlier in the disease course. Rather than waiting for patients to [progress on] ruxolitinib, we might be able to introduce imetelstat in combination earlier. I could see imetelstat moving toward the commercial space as a future combination partner.

Reference

Mascarenhas J, Bradley TJ, Scott BL, et al. IMproveMF update: a phase I/IB trial of imetelstat (IME) plus ruxolitinib (RUX) in patients with intermediate-1, intermediate-2, or high-risk myelofibrosis (MF). J Clin Oncol. 2025;43(suppl 16):6515. doi:10.1200/JCO.2025.43.16_suppl.6515

By Barbara Kollmeyer

Yves Lamoureux says he’s no longer ‘extremely bullish’ on equities

The stock market has become a casino full of gamblers and now’s the time for caution.

So says our call of the day from the president of market research firm Lamoureux & Co., Yves Lamoureux, who has switched from “extremely bullish” to neutral on stocks because of a powerful rally seen this year.

“It’s very rare to see a market rally this dramatically, so one part of the change in my view is because of the behavior of this market,” the forecaster who has made prescient past calls told MarketWatch on Tuesday.

In early April, just as tariff fears were hammering stocks, Lamoureux told MarketWatch he expected upside surprises ahead, maybe within six months, but the speed of the bounce has shocked him.

“I’ve argued for 50,000 when the market was really, really low,” he said -his past call was for the Dow industrials DJIA to reach 50,000 by 2027. “Well, look we got to 45,000, we were almost at 46,000, so I’m very close to my target. But rather than doing this thing in say, one year, we’ve done this in just what two months? It’s crazy.”

Lamoureux said that’s “a sign that gambling is back, risk-taking is back and I don’t see risk-taking as a good sign.” He noted the resurgence of meme stock mania and record trading in extremely short-dated options contracts.

“What I see today is now very similar to 2021. People are in the market, they’re gambling, they don’t know what they’re doing and that’s why my stance is really to look forward,” he said.

The forecaster sees a “topping process” ahead, which means stocks could move sideways for couple of years. “A topping process means that maybe we don’t go higher than the 45,000 on the Dow for maybe the next two to three years,” he said.

“So when there’s risk, you have to take some money off the table. I’m not saying to go cash completely, I’m just saying you have to reduce your portfolio and build back some cash,” to buy stocks when they get cheaper, he said.

He suggests investors raise cash gradually, just as he did in November before the market pulled back. “When things start to drop, you scale in. You buy a little bit and it goes down, you buy a little bit more, it goes down, buy a little bit more. Same thing the other way when it goes up. When it goes up and you don’t know when to sell, you scale out,” he said.

Montreal-based Lamoureux says higher inflation will make interest rates cuts challenging. “I’m expecting inflation to move up in 2026 and in 2027, so if inflation moves up, the whole structure of the market isn’t very safe.”

He has previously maintained the 10-year Treasury yield BX:TMUBMUSD10Y could reach 6% to 7% further out, but sees 6% likely in 2026. That’s as companies that have been losing money by absorbing tariffs, will “gradually” start to pass that onto customers, he said. He also flags a global fee agreed this year on greenhouse gases targeting shipping to “increase the cost of everything.”

Among other problems, he flags that many U.S. companies are simply carrying too much debt.

“If rates keep climbing, they’re in trouble,” he said, adding that he prefers “companies in tech that have cash and pay no dividends because they’re investing in their business.”

One name he likes is Nebius Group (NBIS) a Dutch-based AI infrastructure company, as “one of the best pure plays,” which Goldman Sachs initiated with a buy rating earlier this month.

“They hold a portfolio of AI assets, so they have many companies related to AI,” he said, noting that one of Nebius’ investments is privately held ClickHouse, a database that stores and quickly analyzes big batches of data.

“This portfolio of different AI companies they have gives them a lot of upside,” Lamoureux said. “I would stick my neck out to say, ‘Hey, I really like this and I would buy even if the market is volatile.’”

Read: Why the man behind ‘The Hater’s Guide to the AI Bubble’ thinks Wall Street’s hottest trade will go bust

The markets

U.S. stock futures (YM00)(ES00) (NQ00) are inching up, Treasury yields BX:TMUBMUSD10Y BX:TMUBMUSD02Y are steady, and the dollar DXY is slipping.

   Key asset performance                                                Last       5d      1m      YTD     1y 
   S&P 500                                                              6370.86    0.97%   2.79%   8.32%   17.19% 
   Nasdaq Composite                                                     21,098.29  0.98%   4.43%   9.26%   23.04% 
   10-year Treasury                                                     4.33       -5.80   4.60    -24.60  29.50 
   Gold                                                                 3325.1     -2.13%  -1.29%  25.98%  33.36% 
   Oil                                                                  69.16      5.67%   5.54%   -3.77%  -8.12% 
   Data: MarketWatch. Treasury yields change expressed in basis points 

Need to Know starts early and is updated until the opening bell, but sign up here to get it delivered once to your email box. The emailed version will be sent out at about 7:30 a.m. Eastern.

The buzz

Humana stock (HUM) is rising on an earnings beat and higher guidance. Meta (META) (see preview) and Microsoft (MSFT) will report after the close, along with Ford (F).

Humana stock (HUM) is rising on an earnings beat and higher guidance.

Hershey (HSY) has cut its outlook for this year over tariff fallout.

Starbucks (SBUX) is up after mixed results, and promises for a “wave of innovation.”

Visa (V) said consumer spending remains resilient, though shares are down after results.

ADP private-sector payrolls are due at 8:15 a.m., gross domestic product for the second quarter at 8:30 a.m., (read preview), a Fed decision at 2 p.m., and a news conference with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at 2:30 p.m.

A massive earthquake struck off Russia’s coast, sparking tsunami warnings and across the Pacific, with waves hitting Japan, Hawaii and the west coast.

Best of the web

Portrait of a young DOGE coder dismantling America’s institutions.

Top FDA official resigns after pressure from social media campaign.

Behold, the first AI-native investment bank.

The chart

Viraj Patel, fx and global macro strategist at Vanda Research, provides this chart showing how dissents by dovish Federal Reserve governors often lead policy moves. In an X thread, he explains that markets expect Fed Gov. Christopher Waller, possibly Fed. Gov Michelle Bowman too, will provide that opposition when the meeting outcome is revealed later. “There have only been 14 dovish Governor dissents since 1987. Excluding hiking cycles, the Fed has typically gone on to cut 50bps in the next 3M [months],” he said. “There will potentially be a leading signal if Waller/Bowman dissent today. No dissent = hawkish surprise (rates & $USD higher)”

Top tickers

These were the top-searched tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m.:

   Ticker  Security name 
   NVDA    Nvidia 
   TSLA    Tesla 
   GME     GameStop 
   AMD     Advanced Micro Devices 
   PLTR    Palantir Technologies 
   PLUS    EPlus 
   NVO     Novo Nordisk 
   SOFI    SoFi Technologies 
   OPEN    Opendoor Technologies 
   NIO     NIO 

Random reads

“CatVideoFest will save us all.”

The ‘other’ Michelin award – for world’s best budget grub.

If you’re just starting out on your money or career journey and have questions about how to navigate your finances, we want to hear from you. Write to Dollar Signs, MarketWatch’s new advice column, at dollarsigns@marketwatch.com.

-Barbara Kollmeyer

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