Category: 3. Business

ACI Worldwide (ACIW) shares moved lower after the company’s latest trading session, closing down 3% to $48.96. While the decline caught some attention, it follows an otherwise resilient performance over the past month.

See our latest analysis for ACI Worldwide.

Zooming out, ACI Worldwide’s 1-year total shareholder return is down 15.6%, even as the stock still holds a notable 135.6% total return over three years. While momentum has been uneven, longer-term holders have seen substantial gains compared to short-term setbacks. This indicates that sentiment can change quickly based on recent events or evolving risks.

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With mixed signals from recent returns and a sizable discount to some analyst price targets, the question is whether ACI Worldwide is an overlooked bargain or if the market has already priced in its growth potential.

ACI Worldwide’s most followed narrative places its fair value sharply above the current stock price. This makes the recent dip appear even more striking. The gap suggests upbeat future expectations and invites a closer look at what is fueling such optimism.

The official launch and positive customer reception of Connetic, ACI’s next-generation cloud-native payments hub with AI-powered decisioning and real-time capabilities, positions the company to capitalize on increasing demand for scalable, secure digital payment processing and real-time payments globally. This supports accelerating recurring revenue growth and higher margins. ACI’s established ability to facilitate alternative payment types, including stablecoins and digital currencies, enables it to capture new market opportunities as the complexity and adoption of digital payment methods rise. This development may translate into increased transaction volumes and elevated per-transaction economics, potentially driving revenue uplift.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to discover the secret behind this premium price tag? The narrative depends on a future where record bookings, cutting-edge innovation, and shifting profit margins shape a bold valuation. Could these projections become game-changers or merely raise more questions? Explore the full story to see the metrics that matter most.

Result: Fair Value of $64.6 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, intensifying competition from fintechs and ongoing heavy investment demands could limit ACI Worldwide’s ability to deliver on its ambitious earnings projections.

Find out about the key risks to this ACI Worldwide narrative.

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A great starting point for your ACI Worldwide research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include ACIW.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

Chevron (CVX) caught investors’ attention this week after the company topped third-quarter earnings forecasts and set a new production record. This was supported by the freshly integrated Hess assets and output growth in key fields.

Even as oil prices wavered and analysts weighed short-term concerns, Chevron maintained steady shareholder returns through both dividends and share buybacks. These latest results have become a talking point on Wall Street.

See our latest analysis for Chevron.

Shares of Chevron have climbed 5.7% year-to-date, and while the 1-year total shareholder return stands at a modest 3.3%, the company is coming off a highly active quarter. The quarter capped record output and the completion of its transformative Hess acquisition. Recent board changes and robust buybacks further highlight Chevron’s evolving strategy, keeping sentiment constructive even as near-term earnings forecasts soften. Overall, momentum is steady, and big-picture performance remains healthy for long-term holders.

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With Chevron trading at a double-digit discount to analyst price targets, but facing declining earnings estimates, investors are left to consider whether there is value still on the table or if the market fully reflects its future growth prospects.

Chevron’s most widely followed narrative places its fair value at $172.04, which is noticeably above the last close of $155.02. With this gap in focus, Chevron’s current price may not reflect the narrative’s full expectations for long-term growth, earnings, and operational leverage.

Strength in low-cost production and strategic acquisitions positions Chevron for revenue growth, operational leverage, and resilience to commodity price cycles. Investment in efficiency, renewables, and cost reductions supports industry-leading margins, shareholder returns, and diversified growth amid regulatory shifts.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know the growth blueprint behind this high valuation? The key element of this narrative is record-breaking earnings and a future profit multiple usually associated with tech leaders. Interested in which bold financial projections support that price target? Dive deeper to see the surprising numbers that drive this fair value calculation.

Result: Fair Value of $172.04 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, persistent reliance on hydrocarbons and slow progress in renewables could impact Chevron’s revenue growth and long-term earnings stability.

Find out about the key risks to this Chevron narrative.

When we compare Chevron’s share price using standard industry ratios, the numbers present a very different story. The company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.4x, which is much higher than both the US Oil and Gas industry average (13.5x) and the peer average (20.7x). This suggests that, even accounting for Chevron’s scale and strengths, investors are paying a substantial premium. This premium exceeds what our fair ratio of 23.5x would indicate. Is this premium justified, or could it be leaving investors with less upside?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

If you see Chevron’s value differently or want to examine the numbers from another angle, you can build your own narrative in minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Chevron research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include CVX.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

• JFrog has reported third-quarter results that exceeded analyst expectations, highlighted by a record US$136.91 million in revenue and a 50% year-over-year increase in cloud revenue, with the company also raising its outlook for the fourth quarter and full year 2025.

• Cloud revenue now accounts for 46% of total sales, indicating a marked shift toward cloud-based services and reinforcing JFrog’s role in software supply chain management as enterprises increase adoption of AI-driven solutions.

• We’ll explore how JFrog’s accelerating cloud revenue growth impacts its investment narrative and future expectations for sustainable earnings expansion.

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Owning JFrog means believing that trusted software supply chain management, especially with a focus on cloud and AI model delivery, will see ongoing enterprise adoption at scale. The recent Q3 results and raised 2025 guidance are clear positives for near-term sentiment, particularly given the 50% surge in cloud revenue; however, the most important catalyst, continued acceleration of cloud and security product adoption, remains vulnerable to competition and evolving enterprise IT buying patterns, while ongoing operating losses highlight the biggest risk right now. The strong quarter strengthens the company’s growth narrative, but does not remove the risk of lumpy enterprise deal flow and longer sales cycles tied to cloud migration trends. One announcement standing out this quarter is JFrog’s launch of new AI agent-based features and JFrog Fly, which enhance automation and developer workflow within its core platform. These innovations tie directly to the catalyst of deeper enterprise integration for trusted AI and hybrid deployments, supporting the potential for sustained growth but not fully offsetting risks associated with margin pressure as larger rivals embrace similar strategies. Yet even amid this progress, investors should pay close attention to how heightened competition could pressure JFrog’s pricing power and margins…

Read the full narrative on JFrog (it’s free!)

JFrog’s narrative projects $736.3 million revenue and $96.4 million earnings by 2028. This requires 15.8% yearly revenue growth and a $182.7 million increase in earnings from -$86.3 million.

Uncover how JFrog’s forecasts yield a $56.44 fair value, a 6% downside to its current price.

Four recent fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community put JFrog’s share price between US$35 and US$141. Some see opportunities as AI-driven DevOps gains traction, but others caution that risks like pricing pressure could limit upside. Consider exploring a range of these views.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on JFrog – why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

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• A great starting point for your JFrog research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include FROG.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

A battle for control of a little-known chipmaker has threatened global auto production by choking off the semiconductor supply chain, though there are signs the crisis is inching toward a resolution.

The power struggle over Nexperia, a Chinese-owned Dutch semiconductor maker, highlights how technology supply chain vulnerabilities are squeezing auto makers, most notably forcing Honda to halt production at a Mexican factory making its popular HR-V crossover for North American markets. It also exposes how Europe is caught in the middle of the wider geopolitical showdown between Washington and Beijing.

Here’s a look at the dispute:

The turmoil erupted into public view in mid-October, when the Dutch government announced it had invoked a rarely used World War II-era law to take effective control of Nexperia weeks earlier.

The Dutch ministry of economic affairs said it took action because of national security concerns. Officials said they intervened because of “serious governance shortcomings” at Nexperia, asserting control to prevent the loss of crucial tech know-how that could threaten Europe’s economic security.

Nexperia’s Chinese owner Wingtech Technology, a partially state-owned company, is at the heart of the dispute. Amid the boardroom battle, a Dutch court granted the ministry’s request to oust Nexperia’s Chinese CEO Zhang Xuezheng. American officials told the Dutch government he would have to be replaced to avoid trade restrictions, according to a court filing.

Nexperia makes simple semiconductors such as switches and logic chips. The auto industry — one of Nexperia’s biggest markets — uses its chips for numerous functions, such as adaptive LED headlight controllers, electric vehicle battery management systems and anti-lock brakes.

Headquartered in the Dutch city of Nijmegen, Nexperia was spun off from Philips Semiconductors two decades ago. It was eventually purchased by China’s Wingtech Technology in 2018 for $3.6 billion.

Nexperia has wafer fabrication plants in Britain and Germany. It operates an assembly and testing center in China’s southern manufacturing heartland of Guangdong — which accounts for around 70% of its end-product capacity — and similar centers in the Philippines and Malaysia.

The dispute is part of the broader struggle between the U.S. and China over tech supremacy, which has left Europe caught in the middle.

It stems from Washington’s decision late last year to place Wingtech on its “entity list,” which subjects companies to export controls because of national security risks. In late September, the U.S. expanded that list to Wingtech’s subsidiaries, including Nexperia, pressuring allies to follow suit.

After the Dutch government asserted control of Nexperia, Beijing responded soon after, blocking the export of Nexperia chips from its assembly plant in the Chinese city of Dongguan. It blamed the Netherlands for “turmoil and chaos” in the chip supply chain.

There were signs of hope following last month’s high-profile meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, when the White House said Beijing would ease the export ban as part of a U.S.-China trade truce.

Despite Beijing also confirming exports would be allowed to resume, Nexperia’s Chinese unit said headquarters suspended shipments of wafers used to make chips to its Chinese factory, potentially crimping its ability to deliver finished products.

Nexperia’s head office hit back in a statement Wednesday, saying the Chinese unit refused to pay for the wafers and accused it of “ignoring the lawful instructions” from its global management team. The company said it can’t guarantee the quality of any chips delivered from its China plant since Oct. 13.

Modern automobiles rely on so-called discrete chips made by companies like Nexperia, which, unlike more advanced microprocessors, perform a single function. Leaders at big carmakers spelled out their worries in the latest round of earnings calls, saying that finding a replacement for Nexperia at scale in the short term will be difficult.

“While Nexperia makes up only about 5% of the automotive silicon discrete market in term of revenue, its share is much higher in terms of discrete chip volume,” S&P Global Mobility analysts wrote in a recent note.

Nexperia’s parts are widely used across vehicle systems — often dozens to hundreds per vehicle — and carmakers in North America, Japan and South Korea are at risk, they added.

“It’s an industrywide issue. A quick breakthrough is really necessary to avoid fourth quarter production losses for the entire industry,” Ford CEO Jim Farley said.

General Motors CEO Mary Barra warned that production could be hit. The company has “teams working around the clock with our supply chain partners to minimize possible disruptions,” she said.

Nissan CEO Ivan Espinosa told CNBC that the company is setting aside a 25 billion yen ($163 million) provision for supply risks, in part to “absorb” the impact from the Nexperia crisis on production.

Mercedes-Benz is “scurrying around the world to look for alternatives,” CEO Ola Kallenius said. The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association said members including BMW, Renault, Volkswagen and Volvo have been forced to use their reserve stockpiles of chips and warned of assembly line stoppages if they run out.

The European Union’s trade commissioner, Maros Sefcovic, on Saturday noted “encouraging progress,” writing on X that China’s Commerce Ministry had confirmed “further simplification” of export procedures for Nexperia chips to the EU and global customers.

In Beijing, the Commerce Ministry also said Saturday that it agreed to a Dutch request to send representatives to China for “consultations.”

But it noted that the Netherlands had not taken any concrete actions yet to restore the global semiconductor supply chain since the Dutch government said days earlier it would take “appropriate steps on our part where necessary.”

Economics Affairs Minister Vincent Karremans had said in that statement that “the Netherlands trusts that the supply of chips from China to Europe and the rest of the world will reach Nexperia’s customers over the coming days.”

Honda has received word that Nexperia’s shipments from China have resumed, Executive Vice President Noriya Kaihara told reporters Friday. He said the Japanese automaker expects to resume production during the week of Nov. 21 at its plant in Celaya, Mexico, which can make up to 200,000 vehicles a year.

___

AP Business Writer Yuri Kageyama in Tokyo contributed to this report.

The chair of the ABC has warned that AI could become “dangerous and sinister” considering some who finance it hold views that are “extremely autocratic”.

Kim Williams, who has been chair of the national broadcaster since March 2024, is a prolific user of various AI applications, including ChatGPT, Gemini and Perplexity, saying it is important for people to understand the technology.

“I make myself use it and try to understand it … I don’t pretend to be an expert, but I’m certainly actively, passionately interested because it’s the next major technology that is going to change our world,” he told Guardian Australia.

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“As with all technology, this is an immensely useful tool. But it’s a tool and we should not treat it as so many others … have: in a rather undisciplined, romantic way.”

Williams warned that technology can encompass the values of those who create or control it, and said he was concerned what this might mean for AI.

“There are many value constructs that are reflected in AI that can be seen in some ways as being potentially dangerous and sinister,” he said.

“Many of the participants in the financing – and even in the origination and leadership of some of the AI [companies] – have unusually severe views of human organisation and politics, and in some instances … have views that are extremely autocratic, and believe in an anointed few being in charge of the many.”

Williams said that as a believer in democracy and the contest of ideas, it’s “clearly immensely socially dangerous” for people to limit and censor the views of those they disagree with.

“We should not underestimate the potency and power of these technologies – and we are seeing living examples of the technologies in the hands of some governments, where we have real life demonstrations of just how dangerous this can be.”

Asked whether, he thought media organisations – including News Corp and the Guardian – should be signing deals with AI companies, Williams said everyone needed to carry the responsibility of using these technologies with a sense of the public and national interest.

“I speak about it openly with colleagues because I think these things are immensely important.”

AI companies failed to insert a text and mining data exemption into Australian copyright law, which would have allowed them to train AI on creative works without paying for it. Last month, the Albanese government ruled out introducing such an exemption.

Williams, who chaired the Copyright Agency for six years said people have a right to derive income from their creative work.

“Anything that is going to compromise that is not cool, and it’s not acceptable, and that is, as far as I know, illegal,” he said.

“And it should get the full … defence and prosecution by government. You’ve got to pay people who have invested their lifetimes in creating works.”

Williams said he saw AI as potentially devastating for entry-level jobs in industries such as accounting or law, but he believed the effect on journalism jobs would not be as damaging.

“I think the impact on journalism will probably be a lot more benign. Well, actually, a lot more positive than people think because journalists are smart, perspicacious people, and they’ll figure out ways that AI will actually make them better and stronger and will improve journalism,” he said.

“But boy, in so many other areas, I just think it can be an employment destroyer.”