Category: 3. Business

HONG KONG — The fallout from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is being felt sharply in Asia, with authorities from New Delhi to Manila implementing emergency measures to shield consumers from mounting shortages and surging oil prices.

On Friday, people in Nepal lined up at gas-filling stations, carrying their empty, red cooking-gas cylinders as the country’s main oil company said it would only fill them halfway with LPG, or liquefied petroleum gas, as it tries to make stocks last longer.

Neighboring India, which is the world’s second-largest importer of LPG after China, is grappling with panic-buying among its own citizens amid wild swings in the price of international Brent crude oil, which as of early Friday was above $100 a barrel.

The unease highlights just how much a region dependent on oil from Gulf nations is affected by the Iran war, which the International Energy Agency says has created the “largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.”

Unlike the U.S. or Europe, which have more diverse sources of oil, Asia relies heavily on imports that pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route along southern Iran that carries about a fifth of the world’s oil.

“The ability to refine different oils from different places is complicated and not easily shifted in Asia,” Robert Savage, the head of markets strategy and insight at Bank of New York Mellon, told NBC News on Thursday.

Among the countries most affected are Singapore, Thailand, South Korea, Pakistan and Japan, according to a research note Thursday from Eurasia Group, a New York-based geopolitical risk analysis firm.

The escalating conflict in the Middle East has set off an energy frenzy across the continent, forcing governments to ration fuel and scramble for alternative supplies.

In India, which has invoked emergency powers directing refineries to maximize LPG production, oil companies say they are focused on ensuring the stability of domestic supplies, including to essential services such as hospitals.

Though authorities have said the measures are precautionary and that India has plenty of oil, panic-buying threatens to strain domestic resources. “We request everyone not to believe such rumors or crowd fuel stations unnecessarily,” Mumbai-based Bharat Petroleum said on X Saturday.

Even as India struggles to reassure its own population, it is getting additional pressure from its South Asian neighbors.

Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and the Maldives have all requested supplies from New Delhi, Indian foreign ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said Thursday.

Muslim-majority Bangladesh also closed universities and brought forward the Eid al-Fitr holidays to save electricity and fuel. Worried consumers have flocked to gas stations to fill up their vehicles.

In Southeast Asia, the Philippines has initiated a four-day workweek for government employees, while Vietnam has urged its citizens to work from home and limit vehicle usage.

Coffee is the original biohack and the nation’s most popular productivity tool. As we’ve battled the changeover to daylight saving time, the caffeine-addicted WIRED Reviews team has spent the past week writing about our favorite coffee brewing routines and devices that’ll keep us alert and maybe even happy in the morning. Today, we finally write about the mighty Chemex. You can also check out other Java.Base stories where WIRED writers sharing their favorite brewing methods.

It is a profound disappointment to me that, despite reviewing consumer goods while working for the world’s finest publisher of periodicals, I spend very little of my time interacting with objects that would be at home in the lives of Don Draper or James Bond. Writing and editing for WIRED means testing some very nice things, but so few of those things are truly elegant, let alone arguably perfect.

The exception is any morning that I make my coffee with a Chemex. The hourglass-shaped Chemex coffee maker is perhaps the most beautiful everyday object I regularly lay my hands on, and quite possibly the best designed. The sturdy and shock-proof borosilicate glass holds a thick, bonded paper filter at the perfect 60-degree angle to keep your water exposed to the ground beans before gravity fills the pot below. No mechanical parts or plastic leaves nothing to go wrong. My mornings begin with beauty and consistency.

Though it’s typically seen as an icon of midcentury modern design, the Chemex is actually a little older. The device was invented by a German chemist in 1941 and was already vintage by the early 1960s when Mad Men is set. When the Chemex appeared in From Russia With Love, it was already older than the Blu-Ray disc is to us now. When it appeared on Friends in 1994, it was a technology as old as the Betamax is today.

It’s stayed around that long because there’s really never been anything that does what it does as well, let alone while looking as good as it does while doing it.

It’s common to discuss the learning curve in mastering the Chemex, even compared to other pour-over methods. I think that’s overstated and a little unfair to the device. I suppose the Chemex is more difficult than scooping preground Folgers into a Mr. Coffee or punching a K-Cup into the office machine. But that’s not really a fair comparison—the Chemex is for people who care enough about their coffee to make manual espresso or use an Aeropress. And compared to those methods, it’s dead simple to use and extremely forgiving.

Yes, you can be extraordinarily fussy about your morning cup of Chemex, and if you’re militant about the methods, it is capable of making a peerless cup of drip coffee. Go to Stumptown Coffee or Onyx Coffee Labs or Milstead and Co. or any of the other high temples of coffee snobbery and order a pour-over of the Peru Timbuyacu Maragogype from a 50-acre low-yield farm in northern Peru, and there’s a very good chance they’ll make it with a Chemex. At Onyx, they might carefully pour 900 grams of water in 200-gram increments with 90-second breaks between each, and carefully pour the water from a gooseneck kettle into the center of the cone until the final wash. The process will take six or seven minutes, and if you do it at home, it will not only show respect for Panama Esmeralda Special Geisha beans that cost $85 per pound, but also give you a result that is extraordinarily clean and flavorful.

Your flight has been delayed as a result of the Middle East crisis and you want to find out what’s happening, so you go online for an answer. You find a social media account run by the airline you are booked with and post a question, and get a reply offering help.

You’re asked to send a direct message with details, which seems reasonable. A conversation starts and you are told to give your phone number as you may be due compensation. This is where it all starts going wrong: instead of being given money, you have it taken. Although it looked official, the account that replied was a scam.

Fake airline accounts are not new but scammers have leapt on the disruption caused by the Iran war to target people around the world, setting up scams in the names of the carriers most affected by the crisis.

Santander says it has already heard from customers who were caught up in cancellations and delays – and then caught out by fraudsters. On the social media site X, customers say they have been contacted by accounts purporting to be run by the airlines Qatar Airways, Etihad and Emirates.

Chris Ainsley, the head of fraud risk management at Santander UK, says: “Fraudsters are quick to exploit uncertainty and the travel disruption caused by the conflict in the Middle East is no exception.

“We’re already seeing criminals target people seeking refunds for booked travel and holidays, sending them a link to supposedly receive a refund but instead people’s accounts are being charged.”

What the scam looks like

The fraudster has set up what looks like a legitimate account for an airline – it will typically have the logo at the top. The name of the account could include the airline’s name, or be something generic such as support team, quick response team or guest services care.

The description for the account may ask you to share your email address or phone number, or there may be no detail at all.

While you might come across the account while looking for help, typically the fraudsters scan social media for passengers who are attempting to contact legitimate accounts and reply to them offering help. This can make it harder to spot that the message is from a scammer.

You will be asked to share your details on a direct message. The fraudster will then contact you, claiming to be from the airline, and say they can process a refund. They will send you a link to a money transfer app and ask you to use your digital wallet to accept the refund. Once they have all this in place, instead of paying you they will debit your account.

What to do

Be very wary of any accounts on social media that you do not find via the airline’s website, or via another source you know to be legitimate. When an airline has a separate social media account for customer service questions it will usually include the name in the description on the main account.

If any account replies to your post, check the name to make sure it is the real account.

When you click on the page of a fake account the follower number will be very low – usually in single figures. This is a red flag.

Do not hand over payment details or passwords. Etihad has posted a warning to customers on X saying: “Etihad will never request passwords, one‑time codes, payment details, or any sensitive information through social media messages.” If you are asked for any of this, do not hand them over.

Ainsley says: “Always look for updates on the airline or travel companies’ official website or the Foreign Office website.”

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A “mini army” of North Korean IT operatives is increasingly using AI to pose as workers, secure jobs and earn wages at some of Europe’s biggest companies.

Cyber experts say the “fake worker” phenomenon stems almost exclusively from Kim Jong Un’s regime, which has become a global expert in full-scale deception to earn US dollars.

North Korean operatives posing as remote workers infiltrated more than 300 US companies between 2020 and 2024, generating at least $6.8mn for Pyongyang, according to Department of Justice figures.

Jamie Collier, lead adviser in Europe at Google Threat Intelligence Group, told the FT there were now indications that the phenomenon was spreading to Europe, with North Korean agents setting up “laptop farms” in the UK.

“Recruitment has not naturally been seen as a security issue, so it’s an area of weakness in companies’ systems and these operatives are targeting that vulnerability,” he said.

Collier added: “When we had to tell a client that one of their workers was actually a fake North Korean operative, the feedback was ‘are you 100 per cent sure, because he’s one of our best employees’.”

The scam typically involves stealing an identity, sometimes by hijacking dormant LinkedIn accounts or even paying the account holders for access. After forging CVs and identity documents and relying on other operatives to provide LinkedIn endorsements, the fake workers then use AI to create digital masks or avatars and deepfake video filters to appear in remote job interviews.

Alex Laurie, chief technology officer at cyber security firm Ping Identity, said the use of AI had radically enhanced false applicants’ credibility.

“By using large language models, operatives can generate culturally appropriate names and matching email address formats, ensuring that their communications do not trigger linguistic or cultural ‘red flags’ that previously spotted such scams,” he said.

“The future of UK national security will be determined by the ability of its corporate sector to authenticate its workforce in the face of persistent, AI-enhanced adversarial impact.”

After many companies tightened their online recruitment processes amid concerns that applicants were using AI prompts and answers, North Korean operatives started paying real people, or “facilitators”, to be interviewed online instead, experts say.

The second stage of the scam typically involves intercepting laptops sent to new starters by companies, then logging in remotely and using LLMs and chatbot commands to undertake tasks — sometimes working multiple jobs.

Rafe Pilling, director of threat intelligence at Sophos’ counter-threat unit, called it a state-backed enterprise: “A mini army of North Koreans have been targeting high-salary, fully remote tech jobs. Framing themselves as talent with around seven to 10 years’ experience, getting jobs, drawing a salary — rinse and repeat.”

In a January LinkedIn post, Amazon’s security chief Stephen Schmidt said Amazon had stopped more than 1,800 suspected North Korean operatives from getting jobs since April 2024.

These were increasingly targeting AI and machine learning roles, he said: “This isn’t Amazon specific — this is likely happening at scale across the industry.”

Cyber security firm KnowBe4 was one of the first US companies to admit that it had fallen victim to such a scam. In this case the fake worker was motivated by a desire to gain access to the firm’s security systems and had attempted to load malware before being identified.

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• If you are wondering whether Danske Bank shares still offer value after a strong run, you are not alone. This article breaks down what the current price might be implying.

• The stock now trades at Dkr316.60, with returns of 41.1% over 1 year and 179.6% over 3 years, even though the past month and year to date show modest declines of 2.9% and 0.9% respectively.

• Recent attention on large European banks, including Danske Bank, has focused on how they are positioned on capital strength, asset quality and their ability to support shareholders through different rate settings. That context has kept investors focused on the gap between current share prices and what various valuation measures suggest the business could be worth over time.

• Danske Bank currently has a valuation score of 4 out of 6, reflecting the checks where it screens as undervalued. Next, we will walk through what different valuation approaches say about that score and introduce an even broader way to think about valuation at the end of the article.

Find out why Danske Bank’s 41.1% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.

The Excess Returns model looks at how much value a bank can create above the return that shareholders require. It starts from the book value of equity, then adds the extra earnings that come from earning a higher return on that equity than the assumed cost of equity.

For Danske Bank, the model uses a book value of DKK222.29 per share and a stable earnings figure of DKK30.70 per share, based on weighted future Return on Equity estimates from 10 analysts. The average Return on Equity used in the model is 13.29%, while the cost of equity is set at DKK14.40 per share. That implies an excess return of DKK16.30 per share, which is what the model treats as value created above the required return.

The stable book value is set at DKK231.06 per share, using weighted future book value estimates from 6 analysts. Combining this with the excess returns stream produces an intrinsic value estimate of DKK604.12 per share. Compared with the current price of DKK316.60, this Excess Returns valuation implies the shares are trading at a 47.6% discount.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Excess Returns analysis suggests Danske Bank is undervalued by 47.6%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 228 more high quality undervalued stocks.

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Danske Bank.

For a profitable bank, the P/E ratio is a straightforward way to think about value because it links what you pay directly to the earnings the business is already generating. In general, higher expected growth and lower perceived risk tend to justify a higher P/E, while more uncertain outlooks or weaker profitability usually go with a lower multiple.

Danske Bank currently trades on a P/E of 11.18x. That sits above the Banks industry average of about 10.75x, but below the peer group average of 13.31x. Simply Wall St also calculates a “Fair Ratio” of 15.05x. This is an estimate of what P/E could be reasonable for this company given factors such as its earnings growth profile, profit margins, industry, market size and risk characteristics.

This Fair Ratio is more tailored than a simple comparison with peers or the broad industry, because it adjusts for company specific traits rather than assuming all banks should trade on the same multiple. Set against the current P/E of 11.18x, the Fair Ratio of 15.05x indicates the shares are trading below that modelled level.

Result: UNDERVALUED

P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 99 top founder-led companies.

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives. On Simply Wall St these are simple story driven forecasts where you and other investors connect your view of Danske Bank to specific numbers for future revenue, earnings, margins and a fair value. You can then see that fair value continuously compared with the current price and refreshed when new news or results arrive. For example, one investor on the Community page might build a more optimistic Danske Bank Narrative around a fair value near Dkr370.00, while another might build a more cautious one closer to Dkr234.54. You can see both side by side and decide which story and price you think makes more sense.

For Danske Bank however we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Danske Bank Narratives:

🐂 Danske Bank Bull Case

Fair value in this bullish analyst narrative sits at about Dkr350.38 per share.

At the last close of Dkr316.60, that works out to roughly a 9.6% gap to this narrative fair value using the formula in this article.

The revenue growth assumption feeding into this view is about 3.17% per year.

• Analysts in this camp link their view to expectations for revenue of Dkr55.9b and earnings of Dkr22.1b by around 2028, with profit margins easing slightly but still staying close to 40%.

• The narrative assumes Danske Bank trades on a future P/E of 12.1x on those earnings. This is a higher multiple than the current GB Banks industry figure cited in the text, and it also assumes that ongoing dividends, buybacks and easing legal overhang remain important for shareholder returns.

• Overall, these assumptions roll up into a consensus price target of Dkr280.50. The narrative describes this as fairly close to the recent share price anchor and therefore frames it as broadly in line with analyst expectations.

🐻 Danske Bank Bear Case

Fair value in the more cautious analyst narrative is Dkr234.54 per share.

Against the last close of Dkr316.60, that implies the shares sit about 35.0% above this bearish fair value estimate using the same approach.

The revenue growth assumption in this case is about 2.52% per year.

• This view leans on a lower fair value of about Dkr234.54 and ties it to a bearish price target of roughly Dkr240.31. This is framed as two standard deviations below a consensus target of Dkr282.79.

• The narrative describes a future P/E of 10.9x on expected 2028 earnings of Dkr21.1b, with profit margins edging down toward about 40% and revenue sitting closer to Dkr53.3b.

• Analysts behind this view focus on risks from digital competition, regulation, legacy reputational issues and the possibility that the market applies a lower valuation multiple even if top line and margins track modest growth.

If you want to see how other investors are framing their own upside and downside cases around these numbers, Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives can help you compare different storylines for Danske Bank side by side.

Do you think there’s more to the story for Danske Bank? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Companies discussed in this article include DANSKE.CO.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

Investing.com — Global energy services giant Slb NV (NYSE:SLB) is bracing for a hit to its first-quarter earnings as escalating hostilities in the Middle East disrupt regional operations and effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz.

According to a new report from Morgan Stanley, the oilfield services (OFSE) sector is navigating a complex landscape of curtailed output and rising logistical costs, with SLB warning that the conflict could shave nearly a dime off its per-share profits.

SLB, which has a significant footprint in the Middle East, expects a $0.06 to $0.09 impact on its first-quarter earnings per share (EPS). The disruption is most pronounced in Iraq, Qatar, and Kuwait, where energy infrastructure has been heavily impacted.

The impact in major markets like Saudi Arabia and the UAE remains “marginal” for now, but analysts note that storage facilities are filling rapidly as producers are forced to curtail output due to the Hormuz blockade.

“The escalating conflict has largely halted Hormuz flows,” the analysts stated, noting that the Middle East accounts for approximately 15% of total revenue for the OFSE firms under their coverage.

Morgan Stanley remains “Overweight” on SLB despite the immediate financial sting, suggesting that the recent 6% slide in share price since late February may present a buying opportunity for investors willing to look past the short-term volatility.

American drilling and completion (D&C) companies are showing uncharacteristic restraint despite the spike in global oil prices following the joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. Some private explorers are considering marginal activity increases, but public U.S. E&Ps remain tethered to capital discipline.

Morgan Stanley suggests that D&C companies are currently “hesitant to underwrite” significant gains in U.S. activity until the long-term path of the regional conflict becomes clearer.

The report highlights a cautious stance across the North American energy landscape, with firms like Patterson-UTI Energy Inc (NASDAQ:PTEN) and Helmerich and Payne Inc (NYSE:HP)) waiting for a more sustained signal before deploying additional rigs.

“Should disruptions extend, we would expect SLB to address costs more proactively,” the analysts noted, signaling that a prolonged conflict would force a more aggressive recalibration of the global energy services supply chain.

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SLB warns of $0.09 EPS hit as Hormuz blockade shuts down Middle East flows

Households can expect significant additional cost-of-living pressures because of the war in the Middle East, with Jim Chalmers confirming that the government expects inflation to rise beyond 4.5% in Australia.

But the treasurer said he did not expect the economy to fall into recession because of the war sparked by US and Israeli bombings in Iran.

Now at 3.8% and putting pressure on the Reserve Bank to lift interest rates as soon as this week, inflation could peak at the “mid to high fours” according to Treasury modelling, Chalmers said.

Speaking on Sky News on Sunday, he was asked about National Australia Bank forecasts that inflation could peak above 5% in the next quarter.

“We’ve run a couple of scenarios which make it clear on some realistic assumptions about global oil prices and how that would potentially flow through to inflation, and for how long,” he said.

“If we were putting pencils down on those forecasts today, we’d have inflation peaking somewhere between the mid to high fours, which isn’t far off some of those private forecasts.”

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Just how long the conflict continued would be critical to the economy hit, Chalmers said.

But recession – two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth – was not something the federal government was “anticipating or expecting”.

“If you look at the scenarios that Treasury has already run, they expect there to be a hit to growth but not a hit to growth that would deliver, you know, a shrinking economy in the quarters to come,” Chalmers said.

“Again, there are a lot of unknowns, there’s a lot of volatility. There’s a lot of uncertainty that existed even before the dramatic escalation of hostilities in the Middle East a couple of weeks ago.”

The Reserve Bank board, who aim to bring inflation back within the RBA’s 2% to 2% target, will meet this week to consider the cash rate. Economists at the big four banks are tipping an increase, followed by another in May – a decision due days before the 12 May budget.

The Greens leader, Larissa Waters, called on the RBA not to increase interest rates. “A rate rise will not stop the chaos of this illegal war that is driving inflation,” Waters said.

“People are already struggling with price gouging at the petrol pump and the supermarket. The RBA should not lift rates when this latest inflation pressure is a supply side mess caused by a pointless war that rate rises can’t stop.”

Chalmers said the economic shock would not stop reform priorities for his fifth federal budget, expected to include a reduction to the capital gains tax discount. He said the Treasury was “working up a number of tax reform options” for cabinet to consider.

Chalmers said Australia had more than enough fuel supply, despite growing interruptions because of the Iranian regime’s moves to block the strait of Hormuz.

The One Nation MP Barnaby Joyce said Australia should join countries moving to shore up international fuel supplies by sending a navy ship to the Middle East.

The US president, Donald Trump, has urged countries to send warships to defend the strategic strait after US strikes on Kharg Island, Iran’s largest export terminal for oil.

“You have to be part of a global effort,” Joyce told ABC TV. “If you are part of a beneficiary of it being resolved, you got to do something for it.”

The energy minister, Chris Bowen, on Friday cut fuel companies’ minimum stock obligations to about 700m litres of petrol and 2.2bn litres of diesel respectively, a move to free fuel for regional Australia.

Australia held about 36 days of petrol and 32 days of diesel in reserve on 3 March.

Nearly one in ten people on board a Princess cruise ship touring the Caribbean became ill with norovirus, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said this week.

The total number of people who fell ill was 153, 104 of whom were passengers and 49 of whom were crew members, the CDC said in a report on the outbreak Thursday.

The vessel, the Star Princess, was on a one-week voyage that ended Sunday, the CDC said. Passengers and crew members were stricken with diarrhea and vomiting, it said.

Princess Cruises reported that additional rounds of cleaning and disinfection were done, ill passengers and crew members were isolated until they could disembark, and staff members consulted with the CDC on best practices for eliminating the highly contagious, long-lasting virus, the agency said.

Princess Cruises did not immediately respond to a request for comment Saturday.

The outbreak was reported Wednesday to the CDC’s Vessel Sanitation Program, whose members went to the ship to investigate, the CDC said.

According to cruise ship tracking site CruiseMapper, the 4,300-passenger vessel returned to Ft. Lauderdale on Sunday before it embarked on a new voyage that had it headed to Princess Cays in the Bahamas on Sunday evening.

Norovirus is the leading cause of diarrhea and vomiting outbreaks in the United States, according to the CDC. It can spread through direct contact with others, consuming food and liquids contaminated with the virus, and touching contaminated surfaces. Norovirus can be prevented by disinfecting surfaces and washing hands frequently, the CDC says.

The Star Princess, with a clear dome over its concert venue and 30 bars and restaurants, embarked on its maiden voyage, from Europe, in October, and was christened the next month by actor Matthew McConaughey and wife Camila, who were designated its godparents, according to a statement from Princess Cruises last year.