Category: 3. Business

TORONTO, Dec. 16, 2025 /CNW/ – Raymond Chun, Group President and Chief Executive Officer, TD Bank Group, will present at the RBC Capital Markets 2026 Canadian Bank CEO Conference in Toronto on Tuesday, January 6, 2026. His presentation will begin at 1:20 p.m. ET. A live audio webcast will be available on the Investor Relations section of TD’s website at Investor Relations. The webcast will also be archived at the same location.

About TD Bank Group

The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its subsidiaries are collectively known as TD Bank Group (“TD” or the “Bank”). TD is the sixth largest bank in North America by assets and serves over 28.1 million clients in four key businesses operating in a number of locations in financial centres around the globe: Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking, including TD Canada Trust and TD Auto Finance Canada; U.S. Retail, including TD Bank, America’s Most Convenient Bank®, TD Auto Finance U.S., and TD Wealth (U.S.); Wealth Management and Insurance, including TD Wealth (Canada), TD Direct Investing, and TD Insurance; and Wholesale Banking, including TD Securities and TD Cowen. TD also ranks among North America’s leading digital banks, with more than 13 million active mobile users in Canada and the U.S. TD had $2.1 trillion in assets on October 31, 2025. The Toronto-Dominion Bank trades under the symbol “TD” on the Toronto Stock Exchange and New York Stock Exchange.

SOURCE TD Bank Group

As part of its community and sustainability initiatives, Hawaiian is expanding a partnership with business accelerator Mana Up through an investment in its Mana Up Capital II fund to help more local companies scale for the global market. Hawaiian has featured more than a dozen local retailers in the food, fashion, beauty and home and art sectors in its onboard service since becoming Mana Up’s official airline sponsor in 2017.  

Hawaiian last month announced it is investing in locally produced sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to reduce flight emissions and support agriculture in partnership with Pono Pacific and Par Hawaii, and that it would be the first airline to take deliveries of Hawai‘i-made SAF later this year. The airline is also working to advance innovative lower-emission options for short-haul air service with an investment in hybrid-electric propulsion developer Ampaire and increasing use of electric ground service vehicles at Honolulu airport. 

Finally, the airline will be providing grants to nonprofit organizations promoting cultural programs, environmental preservation and perpetuation of native Hawaiian art and language through the Alaska Airlines | Hawaiian Airlines Foundation, a newly integrated 501(c)(3) foundation dedicated to these efforts in their two namesake states. 

The Hawaiian Airlines’ Kahuʻewai Hawai‘i Investment Plan is part of Alaska Air Group’s Alaska Accelerate strategic plan to deliver on the combined airline’s vision of connecting guests to the world with a remarkable travel experience rooted in safety, care and performance. 

The New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center (NOENMCC) has hired Jessica Barnes as the new National Sales Manager. In this role, she focuses on attracting new organizations and businesses to the Convention Center and New Orleans. Her efforts will benefit the entire city by boosting tourism, driving economic development and supporting small businesses.

 

She is responsible for promoting the Convention Center and securing new events from various markets, while working closely with New Orleans & Company and the local hospitality community. Barnes will also lead site visits for prospective clients, negotiate facility use contracts, and collaborate across departments to ensure events are efficiently planned and executed.

 

“Jessica is the ideal addition to our sales team, bringing both exceptional expertise in meetings and events and a passion for New Orleans culture,” said Elaine Williams, Chief Commercial Officer of the New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center. “She is already drawing on her years of experience to introduce fresh ideas and strong leadership. She is a standout in our field, and we are excited to see the impact she will make for New Orleans.”

 

Barnes’ professional background spans hospitality, corporate sales and nonprofit program management, equipping her to manage complex event logistics with clients and stakeholders across sectors. With more than 13 years of experience, she has led national programs, improved event systems and amplified engagement across multiple organizations. A native New Orleanian, Barnes earned her master’s degree in leadership and administration from Boston College and a bachelor’s in hospitality and tourism from Delaware State University.

 

While contributing an average of $2.4 billion annually and $4 million in direct spending with small business partners with capital projects, the New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center remains a valuable resource to the Greater New Orleans region. For more information, visit mccno.com.

 

 

About the New Orleans Ernest N. Morial Convention Center

New Orleans is Built to Host! With 1.1 million square feet of prime exhibit space on one level, all under one roof, NOENMCC is tied for the sixth-largest convention center in the United States. NOENMCC is a 2025 Exhibitor Magazine Centers of Excellence recipient and is consistently named a regional top workplace by The Times-Picayune/The New Orleans Advocate. A recent LEED Gold certification makes NOENMCC the largest LEED-certified project in Louisiana and the largest convention center project in the U.S. certified under LEED v4.1 Operations and Maintenance, as well as the first convention center in the world to be awarded initial certification under LEED Gold v4.1 O+M. A leading contributor to the city’s robust tourism economy, NOENMCC event activity has produced $90.1 billion in economic impact since its 1985 opening. 

 

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Claire’s has 154 stores and 1,355 staff, while The Original Factory shop has 140 stores and 1,220 staff.

Modella purchased Claire’s in September, six weeks after its previous collapse into administration, in a deal which saw around 1,000 job losses at the retailer, while 145 stores closed.

The investment firm has owned The Original Factory Shop since early last year.

“This has been a very tough decision,” said Modella. “We have worked intensively in an effort to save both businesses, having made last-ditch attempts to rescue them, but neither has a realistic possibility of trading profitably again.”

Modella said that the chains were “highly vulnerable” even before it bought them. It also blamed challenges including the climate on the high street, which it said “remains extremely challenging”, and government policy.

The two shops are the latest casualties of a tough trading environment which has seen high street sales fall as shoppers move online, ditching old favourites facing the high cost of maintaining brick-and-mortar stores.

“A combination of very weak consumer confidence, highly adverse government fiscal policies and continued cost inflation is causing many established and much-loved businesses to suffer badly,” Modella said.

The investment firm has become increasingly prominent on Britain’s high streets, having bought WH Smith’s high street chain last year and taken over arts and crafts retailer Hobbycraft a year earlier.

In line with established practice, Slovenia has once again issued a bond at the beginning of the year to finance the state budget needs for 2026.

On Friday, 2 January 2026 at circa 11:25 CET, the Republic of Slovenia announced the mandate for its return to the debt capital markets with a EUR 10-year benchmark issuance.

After gathering supportive investor feedback, books were opened on Monday, 5 January 2026 at circa 09:05 CET. Initial price guidance was released at MS+45bps area for a new EUR 10-year benchmark due March 2036.

The orderbook momentum was strong from the outset and demand exceeded already EUR 6.4bn (incl. 700mn JLM interest) at the first updated shared at 11.35 CET. On the back of that the price guidance was revised significantly lower to MS+40bps area.

Books continued to grow, reaching above EUR 7.2bn (incl. EUR 700mn JLM interest), allowing the Republic to set the spread another 3bps tighter at MS+37bps at circa 13:20 CET. The transaction was launched at circa 14:30 CET with the final issue size set at EUR 1.75bn and orderbooks in excess of EUR 10bn (incl. EUR 912mn JLM interest).

The offering ultimately priced at 17:22 CET with the following transaction parameters: EUR 1.75bn RegS notes with a coupon of 3.275 percent / reoffer spread of MS+37bps / reoffer yield of 3.312 percent / reoffer price of 99.675 percent. All-in-all, a very successful transaction for the Republic of Slovenia, as demonstrated by the sizable investor demand and low reoffer spread achieved.

Under the 2026 Financing Program, the Republic of Slovenia may borrow up to EUR 5.251 billion this year to cover budgetary requirements. The primary instrument for financing most of these needs is the issuance of government bonds, complemented by the issuance of treasury bills and, if necessary, other instruments specified in the financing program. The choice of instrument and the amount raised will depend on market conditions at the time of the respective issuance.

The Ministry of Finance estimates public debt at the end of 2025 at 66.1 percent of GDP, compared to 66.6 percent of GDP at the end of 2024. For 2026, a further reduction in public debt as a percentage of GDP is envisaged, in line with fiscal rules at the EU level. These rules, among other things, require countries with public debt between 60 percent and 90 percent of GDP to reduce it by an average of at least 0.5 percentage points of GDP per year during the fiscal adjustment period, which is duly taken into account in budget financing.

The joint bookrunners for this transaction were Barclays (B&D), DZ BANK, HSBC, J.P. Morgan, OTP Banka Slovenia and Raiffeisen Bank International.

Geographical distribution:

27 percent        Germany, Austria, Switzerland

25 percent        United Kingdom, Ireland

15 percent        France, Benelux

11 percent        Southern Europe

8 percent          Nordics

7 percent          Slovenia

5 percent          CEE

2 percent          Other Countries

Institutional investor distribution:

43 percent        Banks

28 percent        Asset Managers

13 percent        Central Banks / Official Institutions

10 percent        Insurance / Pension Fund

6 percent          Hedge Funds

Not to be released, published or distributed directly or indirectly in whole or in part in or into or to any person located in or resident in the United States or into any other jurisdiction where it would be unlawful to do so. 

The Notes are being offered and sold pursuant to an exemption from the registration requirements of the U.S. Securities Act, outside the United States in offshore transactions, in reliance on, and in compliance with Regulation S under the U.S. Securities Act. This announcement has been prepared for use in connection with the offer and sale of the Notes and does not constitute an offer to any person in the United States. Distribution of this announcement to any person within the United States is unauthorised. In member states of the EEA, this announcement is directed only at persons who are “qualified investors” within the meaning of Regulation (EU) 2017/1129 (the “EU Prospectus Regulation”). In the UK, this announcement is directed only at persons who are “qualified investors” within the meaning of Regulation (EU) 2017/1129 as it forms part of domestic law of the UK by virtue of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 (the “UK Prospectus Regulation”). This communication is being distributed to, and is directed only at, persons in the United Kingdom in circumstances where section 21(1) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000, as amended, does not apply.

A rating is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold securities and may be subject to revision, suspension or withdrawal at any time by the assigning rating organisation.

Manufacturer target markets (MIFID II product governance) as assessed by the lead managers are eligible counterparties, professional and retail (all distribution channels).

This announcement shall not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy the Notes or any other securities, nor shall there be any offer, solicitation or sale of the Notes or any other securities in any state or other jurisdiction in which such an offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful. 

The Department of Accounting and Finance recently welcomed Nadia Matthie, partner at Withum, one of the nation’s top 20 accounting firms, along with Jesse Shearer, Withum’s campus recruiter, for a day of professional development and networking with York College students.

During their visit, Matthie and Shearer conducted one-on-one interviews, presentations, and networking sessions, giving students a firsthand look at career opportunities beyond the Big Four accounting firms. The event underscored Withum’s commitment to fostering a supportive and inclusive workplace culture, demonstrating that success in accounting can be achieved across a variety of professional settings.

Students left the November 2025 sessions feeling inspired and encouraged, gaining not only practical career insights but also a clearer sense of the professional culture they aspire to join. The interactive presentations and mock interviews offered valuable preparation for future careers in accounting and finance.

Dr. Chris Hsu, Chair of the Department of Accounting and Finance, expressed gratitude for Withum’s time and dedication.

“The firm’s engagement reflected a genuine investment in students’ potential and future,” said Dr. Hsu. “Plans are already underway for Withum 2.0 events next year, promising continued opportunities for students to connect with industry leaders.”

Students also expressed confidence and gratitude for Withum’s generosity of time and expertise.

“This event was intentionally designed to inspire growth and confidence,” said Felicia Emina. “It reminded us that we belong in every conversation and any boardroom, while remaining our authentic selves. Regardless of major, students can thrive at a firm like Withum and continue to elevate.”

And Roopa Narine expressed a similar sentiment. “My experience at Deloitte has been truly inspiring. The mentorship and the opportunity to engage with professionals who generously shared their journeys and insights have strengthened my motivation and determination to one day become part of the company. The collaborative environment and exposure to real-world challenges have further fueled my passion for continuous growth, both academically and professionally.

-Roopa Narine      Sophomore   

Jan 5, 2026 12:22 PM

Photo (LTR): Dr. Christian Spies, Dr. David Daniels, Dr. Mark Lebehn, Dr. Bob Bellerose

Clinical research at Sutter is advancing real-world care for mitral valve disease.

When a multidisciplinary heart care team at Sutter’s California Pacific Medical Center (CPMC) gathered early one morning last month, they were preparing to deliver a new option for patients living with severe mitral valve disease.

The team was set to perform one of the first commercial transcatheter mitral valve replacement (TMVR) procedures in the United States using Edwards Lifesciences’ SAPIEN M3™ system, a new therapy approved by the U.S. FDA Dec. 23 for real-world care.

Led by cardiologist Dr. David Daniels, structural heart section chief for Sutter Health’s Advanced Heart & Vascular Service Line and national principal investigator of the pivotal ENCIRCLE trial, the team successfully completed two TMVR procedures in a single morning. They also marked another milestone – together, the cases represented some of the most streamlined SAPIEN M3™ TMVR procedures performed to date.

“It’s incredibly gratifying to see this innovative therapy move from research into real-world care,” says Dr. David Daniels. “The fact that our first commercial cases at Sutter were also among the most efficient performed to date speaks to the expertise and precision of our team. More importantly, it illustrates what’s now possible for patients who once had very limited treatment options. It truly feels like science fiction that both of these patients were successfully treated in 30 minutes each from start to finish with a fully percutaneous mitral valve replacement.”

Dr. Daniels notes he has been involved with this technology since its earliest days, when procedures could take hours. “To witness the evolution of this therapy and to help bring forward what’s possible in cardiac care is an immense honor,” he says. “I’m truly grateful to be part of this work.”

Expanding Options for Complex Mitral Valve Disease

The SAPIEN M3™ system is the first transcatheter mitral valve replacement therapy in the United States to use a transseptal approach. It is approved for patients with significant mitral regurgitation or mitral valve dysfunction who are not candidates for surgery or transcatheter edge-to-edge repair.

For decades, many of these patients had few or no viable options. Now, TMVR allows physicians to replace the mitral valve through a small catheter inserted through the femoral vein, avoiding open-heart surgery and often shortening recovery

“This technology represents a major step forward for a group of very sick patients with no other option,” says Dr. Matthew Solomon, vice president and chief scientific officer at Sutter Health. “Our physician-researchers and cardiovascular care teams have worked side-by-side to bring this therapy from clinical trials to everyday practice. That collaboration and relentless commitment to clinical excellence are exactly what accelerate innovation across Sutter.”

The CPMC team included Dr. Daniels, Dr. Christian Spies, Dr. Mark Lebehn and anesthesiologist Dr. Bob Bellerose, along with a highly skilled nursing, imaging and cardiac catheterization lab team supporting the effort.

“Our structural heart teams are committed to delivering complex care with the highest level of safety, coordination and compassion,” says Dr. Michael Pham, chair of Sutter’s Advanced Heart & Vascular Service Line. “Moments like this highlight the training, trust and teamwork – including close collaboration with industry partners like Edwards Lifesciences – it takes to bring groundbreaking therapies to patients who need them most.”

Read Sutter patient’s Karine Gasparyan’s story here.

Clinical Research Driving Real-World Impact

The one-year ENCIRCLE pivotal trial, published in The Lancet, demonstrated that 95.7% of patients treated with the SAPIEN M3™ transcatheter mitral valve replacement system achieved near-complete elimination of mitral regurgitation with meaningful improvement in symptoms and quality-of-life.

Sutter’s Dr. Daniels played a key role in the research that helped make FDA approval possible, and now its clinicians are among the first to bring this therapy into clinical care.

“For our patients, it’s all about access to having the latest therapies. This progress in care will directly impact how they feel and function. It will mean greater energy, less limitation and more freedom in their daily life, and that’s huge,” says Dr. Daniels.

Looking Ahead

As adoption of TMVR grows, Sutter’s structural heart teams will continue advancing minimally invasive therapies for complex valve disease, grounded in research, collaboration and patient-centered care.

Find heart and vascular care close to home and join clinical trials at Sutter for those eligible. 

WASILLA – An upcoming project will install medians along the middle of the Parks Highway on the west side of Wasilla, blocking most left turns from the center lane and lengthening a stop light turn lane on Palmer-Wasilla Highway Extension heading toward Home Depot, state and city officials said last month.

The update also includes extending a right-turn lane at the Palmer-Wasilla Highway stop light below Home Depot to allow more space for vehicles turning right onto the Parks Highway away from Wasilla, they said.

Officials said the projects are intended to reduce collisions and improve traffic flow near the Parks and Palmer-Wasilla Highway intersection.

The area has been the site of dozens of vehicle accidents since 2018, including at least four that resulted in a fatality or serious injury, according to Matanuska-Susitna Borough accident data. About 38,000 vehicles travel the thoroughfare each day, according to state traffic data.

Work on the $3.5 million project could start this summer but will likely continue into 2027, transportation officials said.

Crews will add a median blocking left turns over about 1.5 miles between the Parks and Palmer-Wasilla Highway intersection and Broadview Avenue, officials said. A pre-existing median near the Palmer-Wasilla Highway intersection will be updated to eliminate a left-hand turn into MATCOM or from the Target shopping area.

The median will include new turn pockets at designated intervals to allow for some left turns across oncoming traffic in certain locations, they said. No new turn signals are planned.

Exactly where those turn areas will be placed will be determined through a traffic analysis, said Chris Bentz, a Department of Transportation project manager.

“We’re going to evaluate during the course of this effort to figure out what we can do to, firstly, reduce the amount of left-turning traffic with the median. But secondly, where will it be prudent to maintain some amount of left turn?” he said.

Known for its mile-long evening rush hour backup, collisions and vehicle standoffs in the center two-way lane as drivers attempt to make offset left turns, the corridor is also the center of rapid business growth. A new 107-room Hilton Home2 Suites hotel is expected to open in the area in 2027, the first national hotel chain to open a new property in the Mat-Su in decades.

That growth means the traffic problems must be addressed now, said Wasilla City Council member Ian Crafton, who proposed a resolution in late 2024 requesting that the state tackle the project.

The changes will ultimately force shoppers to alter how they enter and exit some businesses along the corridor – including Lowe’s, Evangelos, and the Sun Mountain Shopping Center – changes that are likely to cause heartburn among some of the area’s business owners, Crafton said.

“I’m hoping we’re going to minimize the access to these businesses, and really the goal here is safety,” he said. “Sometimes that means road changes we could not foresee. Nobody knew this was going to grow like this.”

Traffic along the area may eventually also be eased by a separate project to extend Herman Road from where it starts near Lowe’s north to connect with the Palmer-Wasilla Highway. Construction on that project is expected to start in 2027, according to a state fact sheet.

How traffic flows along the Sun Mountain frontage road and through the series of three-way stop signs will be addressed in a future project, Bentz said. Those intersections are also the site of regular collisions, according to borough traffic data.

This story originally appeared in the Mat-Su Sentinel and is republished here with permission.

The 15% increase in the average U.S. tariff rate in 2025 was the largest in the modern era. Assessing the likely impacts of such a large and sudden change, or tariff shock, on unemployment and inflation is crucial for monetary policy discussions. In general, if a tariff shock raises inflation, tighter monetary policy could help tame the inflation increase, if other factors remain constant. By contrast, if a tariff shock has little effect on inflation but leads to an increase in unemployment, loosening monetary policy could be helpful. 

However, there is little consensus on the overall economic effects of tariff shocks—mainly because there have not been such large changes in tariff rates for decades. Since World War II, global tariffs have steadily fallen under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), dropping from 10% in 1945 to under 3% by January 2025. The last time average tariffs were above 15% was during the interwar period between World Wars I and II.

In this Economic Letter, we take a historical perspective and study the effects of tariff rate changes in past eras, specifically when changes were similar in speed and magnitude to those in 2025. In particular, we look back at the so-called first wave of globalization—the period of increased global economic integration in trade and finance between 1870 and 1913—as well as the interwar period. These two eras saw large fluctuations in tariff rates.

Analysis shows that shifting policy priorities—rather than reactions to contemporaneous economic conditions—were the main drivers of tariff adjustments from past eras. We find that these tariff hikes raised unemployment, which slowed economic activity, while simultaneously lowering inflation.

Background from historical data

While numerous theoretical studies have analyzed the economic effects of changes in tariffs (see, for example, Rodríguez-Clare, Ulate, and Vasquez 2025), there has been little empirical work on the topic, and recent studies have been limited to post-1960 variation (see, for example, Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe 2025).  Since World War II, global tariffs have steadily fallen under GATT agreements, dropping from 10% in 1945 to under 3% by January 2025. Figure 1 illustrates the average tariff rate in the United States since 1865, showing that the last time average tariffs were above 15% was before World War II. Major tariff changes have been absent in recent history until 2025.

However, during the first wave of globalization—the period of increased global economic integration in trade and finance between 1870 and 1913—and the interwar period, tariff rates displayed large fluctuations that were similar in size and speed to the 2025 average tariff rate increase. Indeed, while the general trend has been downward over the past 150 years, earlier periods show that tariffs occasionally rose or fell as much as 20 percentage points in a year.

Estimating the effects of unexpected tariff changes on the economy

The large and abrupt tariff changes in the historical data can provide some insights into how tariffs affect inflation and economic activity. However, it could be misleading to assume that the data depict a relationship between the two. If tariff rates could change in response to economic conditions, subsequent economic activity may simply reflect the normal evolution of the economy rather than the effects of tariffs. For example, if policymakers thought that higher tariffs helped raise employment in the short run by making imports more expensive and thereby boosting spending on domestic goods, they might raise tariffs whenever the unemployment rate started increasing to protect domestic workers. In that case, the data might appear to mistakenly suggest a correlation between higher tariffs and higher unemployment.

To learn about the causal effects of tariff changes, one must isolate the changes in tariffs that are independent of the state of the economy, such as those associated with policy shifts following elections. For example, in the 1888 presidential election, Benjamin Harrison defeated incumbent Grover Cleveland by a narrow margin, when the economy was neither in a recession nor overheating. The Harrison victory led to the Tariff Act of 1890—also known as the McKinley tariff—which raised average tariffs to almost 50%. That change was driven by the new administration’s policy stance that tariffs were needed to protect domestic industries from cheaper foreign competition. Since the tariff change was motivated by long-run considerations, we can study its effect by observing how inflation and economic activity fared in the years afterward. We acknowledge that other developments could have also influenced the economy. However, by averaging over many such tariff changes, we can isolate the effects of tariffs on the economy in that period.

In Barnichon and Singh (2025), we carefully reviewed the major historical tariff changes in the United States since 1870. We found no systematic relationship between the state of the economic cycle and the direction of tariff changes. This reflects that, throughout the 19th century and up until 1935, elected officials from different parties held opposite views on the desirability of tariffs. One side favored higher tariffs to protect their constituents in industrialized regions. The other favored lower tariffs because their constituents were focused less on industry and more on imported goods. Since changes in the economic cycle are not associated with either side winning elections, there was no general relationship between the direction of tariff changes and the state of the economy. Thus, relying on this “narrative identification” approach, we can study the causal effects of tariff shocks using simple regressions of economic activity or inflation on tariff changes.

Estimating tariff effects

The dots in Figure 2 show each case of a change in the average tariff rate, either positive or negative, on the horizontal axis and the changes in inflation in the year of that tariff change on the vertical axis. The data suggest a strong negative correlation between changes in tariffs and inflation: A 1 percentage point increase in tariffs is associated with a 0.6 percentage point decline in inflation. Focusing only on large tariff changes that can be directly tied to shifting policy priorities gives very similar results, as indicated by the red dots in the figure.

Next, to estimate the dynamic effects of tariff changes, we use a statistical model called a vector autoregression, which allows us to capture the effects of shocks over time after making mild assumptions about the underlying economic structure (see Barnichon and Singh 2025 for details). Figure 3 shows the responses of inflation and unemployment over time following a 1 percentage point increase in the tariff rate.

The figure suggests that a temporary tariff increase leads to a rise in unemployment (blue line) and a decline in inflation (red line) that both last up to two years after the initial shock before becoming statistically insignificant. In other words, and perhaps surprisingly, our estimates show that an increase in tariffs decreases inflation.

How can higher tariffs lower inflation?

One prominent theory about tariff shocks is that they tend to drive up domestic production costs through more expensive imported inputs while raising the prices of final goods that are made abroad (see, for example, Werning, Lorenzoni, and Guerrieri 2025). Under this framework, higher tariffs would be expected to lead to lower economic activity and higher inflation in the short run.

Our estimates suggest the opposite, however, with shocks from higher tariffs leading to both higher unemployment and lower inflation. A possible explanation relies on the effects of uncertainty: A tariff shock tends to coincide with an uncertain economic environment, which by itself depresses economic activity by lowering consumers’ and investors’ confidence and puts downward pressure on inflation (see, for example, Leduc and Liu 2016). Another possible explanation is that an adverse tariff shock leads to a drop in asset prices, which then depresses overall demand and leads to higher unemployment and lower inflation.

To study the plausibility of these two mechanisms, we use our statistical model to estimate the effects of tariff shocks on a common stock price index and on stock market volatility as a proxy for uncertainty. Figure 4 shows that both uncertainty (blue line) and a drop in stock prices (red line) are plausible explanations for the economic effect of tariffs. The immediate effect of higher tariffs on stock prices is negative, but the effect quickly fades within the first year. Stock market volatility increases notably after the tariff shock, although the estimates are statistically precise only in the first and second year after a tariff increase.

Conclusion

In this Letter, we show that large and abrupt tariff increases before World War II were associated with lower inflation and higher unemployment, potentially spurred by higher uncertainty and lower wealth. Because many aspects of the economy were different a hundred or more years ago, those historical experiences may not fully apply to current conditions. For instance, the share of imported inputs in production is higher today than in the past, which means a tariff shock may be more likely to raise inflation (Bergin and Corsetti 2023). Nevertheless, our analysis of historical data highlights a possibility that the large tariff increase of 2025 could put upward pressure on unemployment while putting downward pressure on inflation.

References

Barnichon, Regis, and Aayush Singh. 2025. “What Is a Tariff Shock? Insights from 150 Years of Tariff Policy.” FRB San Francisco Working Paper 2025-26.

Bergin, Paul, and Giancarlo Corsetti. 2023. “The Macroeconomic Stabilization of Tariff Shocks: What Is the Optimal Monetary Response?” Journal of International Economics 143(103758).

Leduc, Sylvain, and Zheng Liu. 2016. “Uncertainty Shocks Are Aggregate Demand Shocks.” Journal of Monetary Economics 82, pp. 20–35.

Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, Mauricio Ulate, and Jose P. Vasquez. 2025. “The 2025 Trade War: Dynamic Impacts Across U.S. States and the Global Economy.” FRB San Francisco Working Paper 2025-09.

Schmidt-Grohé, Stephanie, and Martin Uribe. 2025. “Transitory and Permanent Import Tariff Shocks in the United States: An Empirical Investigation.” NBER Working Paper 33997.

Werning, Iván, Guido Lorenzoni, and Veronica Guerrieri. 2025. “Tariffs as Cost-Push Shocks: Implications for Optimal Monetary Policy.” NBER Working Paper 33772.

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