Category: 3. Business

• Gold slips below $3,350 as rising US yields and a stronger US Dollar pressure prices.
• Hopes for progress in US–China and EU–US trade talks lift risk appetite, reducing demand for Bullion..
• XAU/USD threatens triangle support as sellers pressure prices below $3,350.

Gold is trading lower on Friday as risk appetite improves, trade tensions ease, and the US Dollar firms.
At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading below $3,330, down over 1% on the day, pressured by rising US Treasury yields and fading demand for safe-haven assets.

Friday’s US Durable Goods Orders report showed a 9.3% decline in June, better than the 10.8% drop expected but still a sharp reversal from May’s 16.5% surge.

The data, which tracks new orders for long-lasting manufactured goods like vehicles and machinery, is a key proxy for business investment and broader economic momentum. While the headline print was less negative than forecast, the underlying weakness reinforced concerns about slowing growth.

However, with risk appetite improving, equity markets stable, and traders focused on upcoming central bank decisions and trade negotiations, the softer data failed to meaningfully shift sentiment or revive safe-haven demand for Gold.

Gold remains sensitive to trade talks as risk sentiment shifts

The easing of global trade tensions has been a central driver of this week’s pullback in Gold. US President Donald Trump has signaled that countries offering greater access to US markets could receive preferential tariff treatment, citing the recently concluded Japan trade agreement as a model for ongoing negotiations with the European Union.

Under the proposed deal, most EU goods would face a 15% baseline tariff, a notable reduction from the 30% rate scheduled to take effect on August 1 if no agreement is reached.

Attention is also turning to next week’s high-stakes US–China trade talks. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Stockholm between Sunday and Tuesday to discuss extending the current tariff truce, which is set to expire on August 12.

Under the current agreement, tariffs on US imports of Chinese goods are subject to a 55% total tariff rate, while Chinese imports of US goods face a levy of 10%. The 55% tariff rate consists of a 10% baseline tariff, a 20% “fentanyl” tariff, and a 25% Section 301 tariff. The upcoming meetings in Stockholm will focus on potentially extending this truce and addressing other economic issues.

Should talks collapse, tariff rates would revert to 145% on Chinese imports and 125% on US exports, a development that could trigger a sharp deterioration in risk sentiment and reignite safe-haven demand for Gold.

Meanwhile, Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao has expressed support for improving trade ties with the US, noting the mutual interest in restoring long-term economic stability. His comments helped ease market fears earlier in the week, reinforcing the broader risk-on environment.

Gold daily digest market movers: US employment data and Fed expectations keep pressure on Bullion

• On Thursday, US Initial Jobless Claims fell to 217,000, marking a sixth consecutive weekly decline and the lowest level since April. The report reinforced the strength of the US labor market and reduced pressure on the Fed to act quickly on rate cuts. 
• A resilient jobs backdrop supports higher yields and the US Dollar, putting pressure on non-yielding assets, such as Gold.
• According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in a 62.3% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, while the likelihood of no change stands at 36.1%. Although at least one rate cut remains priced in this year, recent Fed commentary suggests growing caution. 
• The Minutes of the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting revealed that most officials were hesitant to ease monetary policy, citing inflation risks driven by higher import costs, especially in the context of unresolved trade disputes.
• This makes the outcome of ongoing US-EU and US-China trade negotiations particularly important. A failure to reach new agreements could reintroduce tariff-related price pressure and complicate the Fed’s policy path. In such a scenario, investors could return to Gold as a hedge against renewed market volatility and inflation.

Gold technical analysis: XAU/USD threatens triangle support, bringing $3,300 into focus

Gold is under pressure on Friday, as the price threatens to break below a key ascending triangle support on the daily chart.

After failing to hold above the psychological $3,400 level earlier this week, the metal is now trading near $3,327, signaling a potential shift in short-term momentum. The breach of both the triangle pattern and the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $3,340 reinforces a bearish technical bias.

Sellers appear to be gaining control following the rejection from the recent swing high at $3,452. Immediate support lies at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near $3,292, followed by the 50% retracement at $3,228. A sustained move below these levels could expose deeper downside toward the $3,200 zone. Meanwhile, RSI has slipped below 50, reflecting fading bullish momentum.

Momentum has also weakened, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering just below neutral at 47, signaling growing downside risk if buyers fail to defend the current support zone.

Gold daily chart

Despite the recent breakdown, the broader uptrend remains intact unless key support levels are taken out. For bulls, the immediate goal would be to reclaim the $3,340 level (50-day SMA) and push back above $3,400, which has acted as both psychological and structural resistance.

A daily close above that zone would invalidate the bearish breakout and shift focus back toward $3,452—the recent high. A breakout beyond $3,452 would confirm bullish continuation, opening the door for a retest of the all-time high near $3,500.

• US jobless claims beat forecasts; Durable Goods mixed but signal underlying strength.
• Trump says most trade deals are finalized; EU deal odds seen at 50-50.
• UK Retail Sales rise 0.9% MoM in June, below 1.2% forecast, fueling BoE rate cut bets.

The GBP/USD tumbles to a day’s low after clearing the 1.3500 figure, following economic data from the United States (US) that justified the Federal Reserve’s need to maintain its current monetary policy. Conversely, UK Retail Sales disappointed investors after missing the mark. The pair trades at 1.3434, down 0.52%.

Cable drops 0.52% as solid US labor and core orders data offset contraction in manufacturing and UK sales miss

On Thursday, a stronger-than-expected Initial Jobless Claims report highlighted the economy’s robustness, although S&P Global reported that manufacturing activity contracted. Recently, US Durable Goods Orders declined due to lower aircraft orders, as reported in a headline of The Wall Street Journal.

Durable Goods, although plunged -9.6% MoM in June from a 16.5% growth in May, it was less than the estimated -10.8% by analysts. Transportation equipment fell by -22.4% in June. Core Durable Goods Orders rose 0.2% for the same period.

In US trade news, President Donald Trump stated that most deals are currently finalized, and the letters to be sent would indicate a 10% to 15% tariff rate. When asked about an agreement with the European Union (EU), he said there’s a 50-50 chance.

Across the pond, UK Retail Sales in June missed expectations, albeit rebounding from a drop in May. Sales rose by 0.9% MoM, below forecasts for a 1.2% growth. In the twelve months to June, it jumped 1.7%, missing estimates for a 1.8% recovery after declining 1.3% the previous month.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The GBP/USD remains upward biased even though it has cleared the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3527. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned bearish as sellers outpaced buyers in the last two weeks. That said, the pair could challenge the 1.3400 figure in the near term.

If cleared, the next support would be the June 23 swing low of 1.3369, followed by the 100-day SMA at 1.3320. On the other hand, if GBP/USD surges past the 1.3450 mark, a test of 1.3500 is likely.

Lucy Gilder
BBC Verify journalist

Image source, Getty Images

President Emmanuel Macron announced last night that France will officially recognise a Palestinian state in September, in a move that has angered Israel and the US.

Of the UN’s 193 member states, at least 147 recognise Palestine. More than 80 countries, including nations in the then-Soviet Union like Ukraine and Russia, recognised Palestine in 1988.

Most major Latin American economies, including Brazil, Argentina and Mexico, have all since established relations with Palestine.

Sweden was the first EU member in western Europe to recognise the state of Palestine 2014, and Spain, Ireland, Norway and Slovenia did so a decade later.

But many other powerful Western nations have been reluctant to do so.

France is just the the first of the large industrialised G7 countries to recognise Palestine. Others – including Germany, the UK and Canada – have expressed willingness to do so, but only in the context of a long-term two-state solution and not unilateral recognition.

A £7m pay package for the Nationwide chief executive, Debbie Crosbie, has been labelled an “obscenity” and hypocritical by members of the mutual, even as it gained approval at the building society’s AGM on Friday.

Concerned members who tuned into the online-only meeting on Friday morning criticised the board’s plan to increase Crosbie’s maximum payout by 43%, saying the move was out of touch and did not align with the mutual’s principles.

One member, identified as Ms Andrews, said: “No one needs to earn more than £1m in salary, and certainly not £7m.” Another member, Mr Fisher, asked :“Does the CEO see both the irony and the hypocrisy of the size of her bonus: an amount in one year that most people would struggle to spend in a lifetime?”

Meanwhile, a member identified as Dr Standon said that Nationwide already had the option of paying Crosbie up to £4.8m, and that pushing that figure to £7m was “an obscenity”.

“One would expect Nationwide to set an example to others,” she said.

Nationwide argued that Crosbie’s pay rises reflected new demands after its £2.9bn takeover of Virgin Money, and its remuneration should be close to packages offered by rivals including Lloyds Banking Group and NatWest.

“We pay more than most building societies, but then again, we are larger,” the head of Nationwide’s remuneration committee, Tracey Graham, said. “We are five times larger than Coventry, we are more complex, and we are more important to the UK economy than other building societies … We are now the second largest mortgage lender and savings provider in the UK, and yet we pay less than compared to the high street banks.

“Our job is to ensure that we have the very best leaders here at Nationwide, and we do operate in a competitive marketplace. That is what we need to pay them, for us to believe that we are paying them equally or fairly.”

Standon acknowledged that Nationwide had done “lots of good things for members … and it’s commendable that you followed through on the principles behind mutuality by not prioritising profit”. But she said that while the building society claimed to value people over profits, its justification for the rise “suggests that unfortunately, your executive team are primarily motivated by money”.

“If they do leave purely because of the money, then, is it not the case that they were not in line with Nationwide principles in the first place?” Standon asked.

The Nationwide chair, Kevin Parry, defended the building society’s bosses, saying: “I don’t think that money is the primary motivation … I’m very confident in saying this is not about personal greed. This is about equity with people that do similar jobs elsewhere.”

Members ultimately gave the green light to the pay policy: 627,982, or 94.8%, voted in favour. Nationwide said 34,492 members, accounting for 5.2% of voters, rejected the pay package.

Nationwide’s board was criticised by one member over the fact that members were not given a binding votes. Parry, confirmed that while votes to re-elect board members are binding – meaning members have a final say – Nationwide is not required to hold binding votes on pay under building society rules.

The board was also forced to admit during the livestreamed AGM that a £316m accounting error was missed by the building society and its auditor EY, and only came to light as a result of one of its eagle-eyed members, Mr Dugan.

Nationwide explained that while it did force the building society to correct its 2024 results, the mistake related to the way it had deducted expenses from its income, but did not affect profitability.

Dugan pushed the matter, saying the error was six times larger than the £55m threshold at which errors are deemed material, meaning the point at which they could end up influencing business decisions. He asked why Nationwide was willing to reappoint EY on that basis.

“We were very grateful last year when you identified the issue,” the chair of Nationwide’s audit committee, Phil Rivett, said during the AGM. However, he said the society was still “very satisfied with the quality of the work they [EY] do, and the challenge that they provide to management on accounting judgments and issues”.

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