Private credit has swiftly emerged as one of the hottest corners of global finance, and its rapid rise is prompting alarm bells. Once a niche player catering to middle-market borrowers — or companies that fall between small businesses and large corporations, which are typically underserved by traditional banks — private credit has grown into a $1.7 trillion industry . It is now a key financing engine behind private equity deals, asset-based finance, and even retail investor portfolios. Some caution that the boom, if left unchecked, could morph into the next source of systemic risk. Managers may find themselves lowering lending standards in a bid to lend more money, which leads to a higher default risk. Morningstar Shihan Abeyguna “The growing interconnectedness between private credit funds and other financial institutions can amplify financial instability, as evidenced by higher correlation and network connectivity during stress,” Moody’s Analytics said in a recent report. While a more interconnected network of financial institutions may enhance efficiency and capital allocation, the increased number of connections is also a “shock amplifier” during periods of market stress, Moody’s analysts noted. This opacity means stress can build unnoticed — and if investors suddenly demand redemptions, fire sales of illiquid loans can exacerbate market dislocations. “The same linkages that facilitate risk-sharing in calm conditions can become conduits for contagion under strain.” Lower underwriting standards? It comes as no surprise that industry observers are saying private credit could become a locus of contagion in the next financial crisis, said Shihan Abeyguna, Morningstar’s Southeast Asia managing director. According to PitchBook data, the private debt industry is sitting on $566.8 billion worth of funds ready for deployment— a historic level of dry powder. Fund managers are incentivized to lend quickly and put them to work, as one cannot collect fees on cash that is lying around, added Abeyguna. “If this becomes reality, then managers may find themselves lowering lending standards in a bid to lend more money, which leads to a higher default risk,” he told CNBC. “So yes, there is the possibility that it could lead to a financial crisis,” said the Morningstar director. The sentiment is shared by JPMorgan. As more capital flows into private credit, including that from traditional banks, a potential concern could be more relaxed underwriting standards and less stringent covenants, echoed Serene Chen, the bank’s APAC head of credit, currency and emerging markets sales. “I think that happens with any asset, if there’s too much money chasing it,” she said. However, Chen noted that this is not happening yet. House of cards? Additionally, the rising use of paid-in-kind (PIK) loans in the sector, in which borrowers defer cash interest payments, also bears watching, said industry experts. “What’s taking shape is there’s a lot of PIK loans that go into private direct lending,” said PIMCO’s managing director and portfolio manager, David Forgash. How PIKs work is that instead of paying cash interest on these loans, the borrower adds more debt, essentially “paying” by promising even more IOUs. So lenders aren’t getting any real cash payments, just more paper promises. By skipping cash payments and piling on more debt, companies that borrow on PIK loans end up owing a lot more in the future . The risk is that all this unpaid interest quietly adds up, creating a mountain of hidden debt. In the event of a recession, private credit will be “one of the shoes to drop,” Forgash noted, given how recessions are bad news for any companies that rely on borrowed money, especially those with a lot of debt. But not everyone agrees that private credit is the next subprime crisis. Despite some warning bells, many investors and analysts remain confident in the sector’s long-term resilience. The direct exposure of banks to private credit is relatively limited through their loans to Business Development Companies (BDC), said Michael Ostro, Union Bancaire Privee’s head of private markets in Asia, who explained that most of the lending sits atop solid capital structures, often with 50–60% equity cushions. This means that even if something goes awry with the businesses that BDCs lend to, the businesses will have to lose over 50 to 60% of their value before BDCs start taking losses. Suvir Varma, advisory partner at Bain & Company, also believes fears of a contagion are overblown. “Given the lessons learned from the GFC, underwriting is now far more disciplined. Private credit managers typically hold the risk themselves rather than slicing and distributing it across the market like CLOs used to do.” “This implies that losses to the bank loans would require seismic losses at the underlying portfolio levels [to really hit them]” said Ostro. In the lead up to the 2008 global financial crisis, leaders were issuing risky loans, usually bundled with complex financial products like collateralized loan obligations or mortgage-backed securities. These products were then sold to investors, which led to the risk being “distributed” and reckless borrowing from poor underwriting standards. Historically, systems with many interlinked relationships have proven vulnerable in crises. However, while there’s potential for fragility, the current financial ecosystem is not comparatively more fragile than before 2008, said Ludovic Phalippou, professor of Financial Economics at Saïd Business School, University of Oxford. That said, he cautioned that the view that private credit is safe because it’s not subject to classic bank runs is “a bit naïve.” “The pressure points are different: investor defaults, margin calls, asset revaluations could create a new type of issues,” he said. “This isn’t a house of cards, but it smells like one, and definitely a house with a lot of mezzanine floors and a very expensive elevator.”
Category: 3. Business
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Gold (XAUUSD) Eases Lower as Traders Seek Clarity on US Trade Deal Talks
Gold fell as traders sought to track shifts in US trade policy, with bullion edging lower as President Donald Trump signaled an additional 10% tariff would apply to countries aligned with the BRICS group of nations.
Bullion lost as much as 0.9% to near $3,306 an ounce following the president’s threat, which gave the US dollar a small lift. With the US negotiating deals ahead of an initial July 9 tariff deadline, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated a possible extension to negotiations, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said country-by-country tariffs would take effect Aug. 1.
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Stocks slip in Asia on US tariff confusion, oil skids – Reuters
- Stocks slip in Asia on US tariff confusion, oil skids Reuters
- The world is now better positioned to call Trump’s bluff as allies and markets push back The Economic Times
- Investors head into Trump tariff deadline benumbed and blasé Reuters
- Asia Eyes Cautious Open on Tariff Deals, Oil Falls: Markets Wrap Bloomberg.com
- Asia open: Traders appear to be leaning into a derivative of the “TACO” trade FXStreet
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Why has Google’s ‘AI overviews’ sparked an antitrust firestorm in the EU? | Explained
The story so far:
Google’s AI-powered summaries, known as AI Overviews, are facing a formal antitrust complaint from a coalition of independent publishers in the European Union, as per a report by Reuters. Their complaint, lodged with the European Commission, alleges that Alphabet’s Google is abusing its market dominance, siphoning traffic and revenue from publishers, and threatening the viability of independent journalism. The feature, rolled out in over 100 countries, represents Google’s major strategic bet on integrating generative AI directly into its core search experience. However, this move has ignited fierce opposition from content creators who claim it undermines the very ecosystem that Google’s search engine relies on.
What is Google AI Overviews?
AI Overviews are AI-generated summaries that appear at the top of Google’s search results page, positioned above the traditional list of blue links. Their purpose is to provide users with a quick, synthesised answer to their query, drawing information from multiple web sources. These overviews can range from a few paragraphs to lists or tables and often include links to the source websites within the generated text.
First introduced as an experiment called Search Generative Experience (SGE) in May 2023, the feature is now a core part of Google Search in many regions.
How do AI Overviews work?
When a user enters a search query, Google’s systems determine if generative AI could be particularly helpful in providing a comprehensive answer. If so, it employs a customised version of its advanced AI model, Gemini, to process the request.
The system doesn’t rely solely on the AI’s pre-existing knowledge. Instead, it uses a technique called Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG), where it actively fetches and analyses relevant information from its web index. The AI then synthesises this information into a coherent summary. Google states that these overviews are designed to be backed up by top web results, and include links to allow users to “dig deeper.”
Why are publishers accusing Google?
The crux of the dispute lies in how these AI-generated answers impact the businesses that create the original content. The Independent Publishers Alliance, alongside groups like the Movement for an Open Web and the legal advocacy non-profit Foxglove, argues that this new feature hurts competition and is causing “serious irreparable harm,” as per the Reuters report citing documents it has seen.
The publishers’ key complaints stem from the concern that their content will be disincentivised because of Google’s AI feature. By providing a direct summary at the top of the page, users have less incentive to click through to their websites.
This leads to a significant drop in traffic, which in turn slashes advertising revenue and subscriber numbers, the lifeblood of many online publications.
Their complaint alleges that Google is “misusing web content” by scraping information from publisher sites to train its AI models and generate summaries without fair compensation. Since May 2024, Google has also begun placing ads within these AI Overviews, meaning it is directly monetising content that publishers have invested in creating.
The complaint highlights that there is no way to opt out of having their content used for AI Overviews without also being removed from Google’s main search results. Given Google’s dominance in search, becoming invisible on the platform is not a feasible option for any publisher.
How are regulators getting involved?
The formal complaint, per the report, was filed with both the European Commission and the U.K.’s Competition and Markets Authority (CMA). The publishers are asking for “interim measures” to stop Google from using the feature while the case is investigated, to prevent further damage.
While the European Commission has not commented publicly on the complaint, it has previously investigated Google for other anticompetitive practices.
The U.K.’s CMA has confirmed receipt of the complaint and noted that AI Overviews fall within the scope of its ongoing work to designate Google with a “strategic market status.”
This designation would grant the CMA more power to regulate Google’s conduct, potentially including rules that give publishers more control over how their content is used in AI summaries without having to be de-listed from search entirely.
How is Google defending AI Overviews?
Google has pushed back against the publishers’ claims. A company spokesperson stated that “New AI experiences in Search enable people to ask even more questions, which creates new opportunities for content and businesses to be discovered.”
The company maintains that it sends billions of clicks to websites every day and that traffic fluctuations can be due to many factors, such as seasonal interest and regular algorithm updates. Google also claims that clicks from pages with AI Overviews are of “higher quality,” meaning users are more likely to stay on the sites they visit.
Published – July 07, 2025 08:30 am IST
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Why France is toasting China’s new tariff on European brandy
China’s new anti-dumping duty targeting European brandy unexpectedly became the toast of France over the weekend, after Beijing granted exemptions to a string of French cognac makers.
The cordial reaction in Paris came as a surprise to many analysts, who had initially predicted that China’s decision to impose the tariff might further raise tensions with the European Union and sour preparations for an upcoming leaders’ summit in Beijing.But French leaders ended up hailing the ruling as a “positive step”, after a deal was brokered that saw major producers including Hennessy, Martell and Rémy Martin sign on to a minimum export price that exempted them from the levy.
That allowed Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi to wrap up his European tour on a positive note on Sunday, with Beijing having published an official list of 34 companies exempted from the tariff and French industry insiders sharing that the move could have a huge impact.
The exemptions will cover roughly 90 per cent of French cognac exports to China in volume terms, according to France’s Union Générale des Viticulteurs pour l’AOC Cognac (UGVC), a producers’ union with 2,000 members.
French foreign minister Jean-Noël Barrot framed China’s announcement as an “agreement” reached between China and the cognac industry at a joint press conference with Wang on Friday evening, Paris time.
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Watch These Datadog Price Levels After Stock Soars on News of S&P 500 Inclusion
Key Takeaways
- Datadog shares remain in focus after soaring to a six month high at the end of last week on news that the cloud monitoring company will be joining the S&P 500 on July 9.
- The stock broke out from a rising wedge pattern on the highest daily volume since going public in September 2019.
- Investors should watch key overhead areas on Datadog’s chart around $170 and $205, while also monitoring important support levels near $135 and $125.
Datadog (DDOG) shares remain in focus after soaring to a six-month high at the end of last week on news that the cloud monitoring company will be joining the S&P 500 on July 9.
Typically, stocks that get included into benchmarks like the large cap S&P 500 receive a boost as they become visible to new investors and get added to index-tracking exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Datadog shares lost more than half their value between December and April as uncertainty over the Trump administration’s tariffs and downbeat earnings projections from the compamy pummeled the stock. However, they have nearly doubled from their 2025 low and are up about 9% since the start of the year, boosted by renewed investor appetite for cloud and AI stocks. The stock jumped 15% to around $155 on Thursday, ahead of the July 4th break.
Below, we take a closer look at Datadog’s chart and use technical analysis to point out price levels that investors will likely be watching.
Bullish Rising Wedge Breakout
After bottoming in early April, Datadog shares traded higher within a rising wedge before staging a decisive breakout in Thursday’s trading session. Importantly, the jump occurred on the highest daily volume since the stock went public in September 2019, signaling strong buying conviction from larger market participants.
While the relative strength index confirms bullish price momentum, it also flashes extreme overbought conditions, potentially raising the possibility of short-term profit-taking.
Let’s identify two key overhead areas on Datadog’s chart to watch and locate important support levels worth monitoring.
Key Overhead Areas to Watch
Follow-through buying this week could see the shares climb to the $170 area. The price may run into selling pressure in this location near the prominent December swing high.
Investors can project an upside target above this area by using the bars pattern tool. When applying the analysis, we take the stock’s trend higher that followed an earlier breakaway gap on the chart in November 2023 and reposition it from the low of Thursday’s gap. This projects a bullish target of around $205, about 32% above last week’s closing price.
Important Support Levels Worth Monitoring
Profit-taking in the stock could see a retracement toward $135. This area would likely attract strong support near a trendline that connects the top of the rising wedge with a series of price action on the chart stretching back to January last year.
A deeper correction could trigger a decline to lower support around $125. Datadog shares find a confluence of support in this region near the 200-day moving average and a horizontal line that links a range of corresponding trading activity on the chart between December 2023 and June this year.
The comments, opinions, and analyses expressed on Investopedia are for informational purposes only. Read our warranty and liability disclaimer for more info.
As of the date this article was written, the author does not own any of the above securities.
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Samsung Electronics second-quarter profit likely to drop 39% on weak AI chip sales – Reuters
- Samsung Electronics second-quarter profit likely to drop 39% on weak AI chip sales Reuters
- Samsung’s profit in Q2 2025 could be much lower than expected SamMobile
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- Samsung Electronics, which has been sluggish compared to the KOSPI this year, has been on a sharp ri.. 매일경제
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Trade deal developments to drive Indian rupee; bond yields to track Treasuries – Reuters
- Trade deal developments to drive Indian rupee; bond yields to track Treasuries Reuters
- Indian rupee ends week little changed, looming tariff deadline in focus Business Recorder
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- Rupee Gains 31 Paise To Settle At 85.31 Against US Dollar MSN
- Rupee Carry Trade Opportunities in the Shadow of U.S.-India Trade Deal Deadlines AInvest
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#WorldChocolateDay: Paan, chilli, chai: Desi flavours meet decadent chocolates
Forget the usual salted caramel or white chocolate. A new wave of Indian chocolatiers and pastry chefs is infusing flavours like paan, kaapi, gulkand, and even imli into European-style bonbons, truffles, and ganaches. The result? Artisanal chocolates that surprise, comfort, and stir a deep sense of nostalgia. This Chocolate Day, we explore some bold desi flavours redefining the cocoa experience. Smriti Bhatia, chocolatier, says, “Our choco-paan wraps, chocolate chutney tadka and kabuli chana chocolates are absolute bestsellers. These flavours may sound experimental, but they’re deeply familiar to Indian palate.” Ananya Deshpande, chocolatier, adds, “Indian flavours like cardamom and masala chai work beautifully with chocolate – they add warmth, depth, and a familiar comfort that people instantly connect with.”
Flavours that are getting a gourmet spin:Paan: Betel leaf, gulkand, and fennel in dark ganacheFilter coffee: South Indian kaapi reduction in milk chocolateKesar-pista: Saffron-pistachio pralines in white chocolate shellsJamun: Tart fruit purée folded into ruby chocolateNolen gur: Bengal’s winter jaggery in caramel trufflesMasala chai: Black tea and spice blend in semi-sweet ganacheKaala namak & imli: Tangy bonbons with tamarind caramel
Occasion meets flavour:
Meetha paan: After-dinner mini indulgence or mehendi favourMasala chai: Rainy-day indulgence, festive boxesNolen gur: Winter gifting, corporate hampersKesar-pista: Bridal showers, Rakhi treatsKaapi: Wedding return gifts, festive trays
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PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1506 vs. 7.1535 previous
On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1506 as compared to Friday’s fix of 7.1535 and 7.1626 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs
The primary monetary policy objectives of the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
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