Category: 1. Pakistan

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s benchmark KSE-100 Index rose by 60 percent during the outgoing fiscal year, a top brokerage firm said in its report this week, crediting the stock market’s impressive performance to macroeconomic stability, improved credit ratings and “aggressive” easing of the monetary policy. 

Pakistan has undertaken a series of International Monetary Fund-recommended structural reforms and fiscal adjustments aimed at stabilizing the economy since it came to the brink of a sovereign default in 2023. These measures have led to increasing macroeconomic stability, reduced inflation and improved ratings from international credit agencies. 

“Pakistan’s benchmark KSE-100 index is up 60 percent YoY in PKR terms and 57 percent in USD terms in FY25,” Topline Securities, a Karachi-based top brokerage firm, said on Monday. 

The report said that over the past two fiscal years (FY24 and FY25), the PSX has recorded a total gain of 203 percent in terms of the Pakistani rupee and 206 percent in terms of the US dollar. It credited the Pakistan Stock Exchange’s (PSX) rise to macroeconomic stability achieved by the country after it secured a $7 billion International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) loan program. 

Topline Securities said other factors contributing to the “remarkable rally” at the stock market are the completion of the IMF’s first review by Pakistan in March, the central bank’s “aggressive” monetary easing from 20.5 percent to 11 percent, and improvement in the country’s credit rating by Fitch from CCC+ to B-.

“As per Bloomberg data, Pakistan’s market was the 8th best performer in FY25 with a total USD return of 57 percent,” the report said. “However, over the cumulative two-year period (FY24 and FY25), it ranked as the best-performing market in the world.”

The report noted that average traded volumes in the cash/ready market increased by 37 percent YoY to an average of 631 million shares per day during FY25, adding that the average traded value also jumped by 80 percent YoY to Rs28 billion per day.

The report warned Pakistan may face pressure in achieving its revenue targets for FY26 but said it expected the government to pass the IMF’s program reviews in a timely manner by meeting the lender’s objectives. This, the report said, Islamabad would achieve through cutting development and other non-essential expenditures.

Topline Securities said it also expected a credit rating upgrade for Pakistan in the current fiscal year.

“The rating upgrade in our view is quite likely as debt ratios and FX reserves are showing improvements,” the report said. “With the credit rating upgrade to ‘B’ category, Pakistan may resort to the international bond market by issuing Eurobond and Sukuks which will further support FX reserves and strengthen the debt maturity profile of the country,” it added. 

The report pointed out that any developments in Pakistan–US relations under President Donald Trump’s administration, along with regional tensions, could “significantly influence market sentiment.”

“Currently, a ceasefire is in place between India and Pakistan; however, any escalation could negatively affect investor confidence,” it said.

It also warned that any further conflict in the Middle East is likely to have broader macroeconomic implications for Pakistan amidst its dependency on oil imports, which could then weigh on the stock market’s performance.

• Report says alerts were sent multiple times to DCs, PDMA.
• Dept recommends providing flood rescue equipment to Rescue 1122.
• It suggests developing policy to confine tourists to safe areas.

---

PESHAWAR: As the concerns regarding the tragic death of 12 people by drowning in the Swat River due to a deluge grow, worrisome reports of official negligence continue to emerge. 

A departmental probe revealed that the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa irrigation department had issued multiple warnings to relevant organisations and the deputy commissioners of Swat, Charsadda, and Nowshera just hours before a flash flood in the Swat River that lead to the loss of precious lives.

The tragedy occurred when 17 members of a family from Sialkot were swept away by a sudden surge in the river while picnicking on a mound near the bank. Disturbing videos circulating on social media showed the family stranded on a rapidly shrinking patch of land, crying out for help for nearly an hour, with no immediate rescue response.

So far, 12 bodies have been recovered, including that of a child found in Charsadda on Sunday. Search is still underway as one person remains missing.

The report stated that the river’s flow at Khwazakhela spiked dramatically from 6,738 cusecs to 77,782 cusecs within a few hours on June 27. The first warning was issued at 8:41am, alerting all concerned authorities — including the deputy commissioners of Swat, Charsadda, and Nowshera — of the potential flood risk.

The department continued to send real-time updates through WhatsApp and issued a severe flood warning by 10:30am. Repeated alerts were sent to the DCs, the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA), ADC Relief, and other relevant bodies, indicating that the department had issued timely and comprehensive warnings.

According to the report, tourists at Khwazakhela had entered the river when water levels were still normal but became trapped as the flow rose sharply due to heavy rainfall. 

It also noted that silt accumulation in the riverbed since 2022 has made it easier for visitors to wade deeper into the stream, increasing the risk during sudden surges.

In its recommendations, the Irrigation Department suggested equipping Rescue 1122 with flood rescue gear, restricting access to tourist areas, and holding hotel owners accountable for allowing visitors into hazardous zones. 

It also proposed that local administrations develop a policy to confine tourists to safe areas and recommended the installation of additional telemetry gauges in Madyan and Kalam to enhance monitoring of river levels.

Failures in oversight, rescue efforts

The rescue services has also come under fire after the Swat River tragedy. Despite being stationed just 3 to 4 kilometres from the site, Rescue 1122 teams reportedly took 19 minutes to arrive and were ill-equipped, lacking boats, ropes, and trained divers. Equipment had to be ordered during the operation, arriving too late to make a meaningful difference.

Additionally, attention has turned to encroachments along the riverbank. Critics have questioned how structures were allowed to be built within 200 feet of the river, in violation of safety regulations.

Although the government has since launched a crackdown on such illegal constructions, there are calls for accountability against the officials who issued no-objection certificates (NOCs) and building permits.

Observers stress that for the operation to be effective and accepted by the public, it must be carried out without bias, regardless of the socioeconomic or political status of those affected.

In response to the incident, the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government has imposed a complete ban on mining along riverbeds and initiated a province-wide operation to remove illegal structures.

The authorities are now under increased pressure to address the systemic issues that contributed to the deadly incident and to implement reforms that prioritise safety and accountability.

KURRAM: Two terrorists were killed during an operation conducted by the security forces in the border area of Teri Mangal in Kurram district on Monday.

According to sources, the terrorists, who carried Rs5 million head money each, were involved in the May 4, 2023, attack at Teri Mangal school, in which seven people, including four teachers, were killed.

The terrorists were identified as Abdul Rehman Mangal and Wajid Gul Mangal. They were wanted in multiple acts of terrorism, including attacks on police and security forces.

In July 2024, the provincial government had announced a bounty of Rs5 million each on five terrorists, including Abdul Rehman and Wajid Gul.

Published in Dawn, July 1st, 2025

• FBR had set out Rs12.97tr tax revenue target in FY25.
• Tax target was revised twice during last fiscal year.
• Was brought down to Rs12.332tr and then Rs11.9tr.
  

---

ISLAMABAD: With the Fiscal Year 2024-25 coming to an end, it has come to light that the Federal Bureau of Revenue (FBR) missed its tax collection target of Rs12.97 trillion by Rs1.235 trillion, collecting only Rs11.735 trillion.

As per a report published in The News, the tax collection target was revised downward twice — first in February-March 2025, from Rs12.97tr to Rs12.332tr, and then during the 2025-26 budget, when it was further reduced to Rs11.9tr.

Achieving next year’s tax collection target of Rs14.131tr for FY 2025-26, starting July 1, 2025 (today) will be challenging for the FBR, as it failed to meet the base collection of Rs11.9tr. This means the revenue authority will have to intensify efforts to reach the upcoming fiscal year’s goal.

Due to this shortfall, the government has limited options but to restrict expenditures to keep the fiscal deficit—particularly the primary balance — within the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) agreed limit for June 2025. Reduced interest payments, initially projected at Rs9.7tr for the outgoing fiscal year, were lowered to Rs8.9tr, resulting in savings of Rs0.8tr.

“The annual tax collection target was ambitiously set at Rs12.3tr, marking a substantial 32% increase compared to the Rs9.3tr collected during FY 2023-24,” a FBR statement said.

It stated the target was formulated based on the assumption of an autonomous growth rate of 15 per cent in FY25.

“Given the subdued economic environment and lower than expected autonomous growth, the estimated tax collection for FY25 without any corrective measures would have been projected to Rs10.07tr,” it added.

The tax collection body further said: “If the government had opted for fiscal policies that sustained higher inflation, it would have led to a corresponding increase in interest rates along with an increase in debt repayments. Such policies would have disproportionately burdened lower-income households, decreasing their purchasing power and deepening economic inequality. In contrast, by maintaining inflation at relatively low levels, the government has provided critical relief to vulnerable segments of the population, particularly those living near or below the poverty line, and safeguarded their real incomes and cost-of-living pressures.”

It explained that in response to the challenge of lower collection due to macroeconomic pressures, the FBR undertook significant efforts to strengthen enforcement, improve administrative efficiency, and implement new policy measures. “These interventions successfully elevated the provisional total tax collection to Rs11.735tr, representing a 26% increase over the previous year,” it added.

Provisionally, the total collection of Rs11.735tr consists of Rs5.784tr in income tax (28% growth from previous year), Rs3.9 trillion in sales tax (26% growth from previous year), Rs0.767tr in customs duty (16% growth from previous year), and Rs1.284tr in customs duty (27% growth from previous year).

ISLAMABAD: While the capital police have devised a security plan for Muharram, 13 points have been identified as potential trouble spots with a history of tension in the past.

The points included Burma Town, Alipur, Noorpur Shahn, Shah Allah Ditta, Imambargah Musa Kazim, Imambargah Qadeemi Talha Syedan, Darbar Shah Mubarak, Darbar Sakhi Mehmood, Ali Masjid G-7 and Imambargah Qadeemi Dhoke Mohri.

Police officers said as part of security, organisers of processions will be asked not to accept Niaz or any kind of drink for distribution amongst the participants without prior checking. There had been incidents in which poison was mixed in Niaz by saboteurs in the past.

Police officials said 88 processions were taken out from Muharram 1 to 10 – 20 from Muharram 11 to 20, 18 from Muharram 21 to 29/30 and 55 in Safar. Out of the total, 16 are placed in category A, 93 in B and 72 in C.

About 31 processions are also scheduled to be taken out without getting no-objection certificates. Besides, 27 new processions will be held first time this year.

About 956 majalis are also scheduled to be held; 681 from Muharram 1 to 10, 95 from 11 to 20 and 31 from 21 to 29/30 and 158 in Safar.

Police will be deployed in three tiers as part of the security plan. The first tier will be deployed at 200 yards from a procession’s front.

On the request of the police, the district administration has banned the entry of 17 firebrand Ulema belonging to different schools of thought in the capital for two months. Besides, the administration has also restricted seven Ulema from delivering speeches and sermons at any public and religious gathering in Islamabad for two months.

Police along with magistrates will inspect mosques and seminaries and will ensure that no stranger is allowed to stay on the premises without due verification and their particulars incorporated in their registers.

The routes of processions will be cleared by Bomb Disposal Squad of Special Branch.

The squad will also carry out checking of vehicles through their special gadgets at different places.

Special Branch will collect and communicate information concerning terrorism/sabotage. It will also make arrangements for recording of speeches and sermons in mosques and majalis.

Security Division will make arrangements at all key points, foreign installations, diplomatic enclave and high security zone. All guest houses, hotels will maintain a proper record of all visitors.

Counter Terrorism Department will depute police in plainclothes at shrines, including Bari Imam, Golra Sharif and Sain Boota Sarkar. Traffic police will make diversions and parking arrangements.

Police will check pillion riders especially youngsters and record their details, especially around Imambargahs.

A flag march involving all forces and district administration will be held on Muharram 6 and 8.

Published in Dawn, July 1st, 2025

GUJRAT: There has been a one-party rule in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa for the past 13 years but the province suffers from administrative incompetence.

“The Chief Minister of KP should resign and an FIR should be registered against him for the Swat tragedy,” said Punjab Governor Sardar Saleem Haider Khan and KP Governor Faisal Karim Kundi while speaking to media in Daska (Sialkot) on Monday.

Earlier, both the governors met with families of Swat tragedy victims and prayed for the departed souls.

Sardar Saleem Haider said people trapped in the floodwater drowned helplessly, whereas timely action could have saved precious lives.

He said Rescue 1122 and the administration failed to act timely as the family remained stranded on a mound for two hours. He said Rescue 1122 teams had nothing except ropes for rescue mission. He said the administrative machinery in KP was completely dysfunctional.

Kundi said he had come to Daska to apologise to the bereaved family on behalf of the people of KP. He said an FIR should be lodged against Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur who also held the portfolio of minister for tourism.

Meanwhile a delegation of Pakistan Tehreek Insaaf being led by party secretary general Salman Akram Raja also visited Daska and offered condolences. Sialkot PTI leader Umar Dar and others also accompanied the party leaders.

Jamaat-i- Islami emir Hafiz Naeemur Rehman and federal minister for defence Khwaja Asif had also visited the grieved families on Sunday.

Published in Dawn, July 1st, 2025

LAHORE: In a surprise move, the Jinnah Institute of Cardiology has been renamed as the Maryam Nawaz Institute of Cardiovascular Diseases.

Punjab Health Minister Khwaja Salman Rafique told a private news channel on Monday that “renaming reflects the hospital’s new identity as a separate, independent entity, no longer functioning as an expansion project of the Jinnah Hospital Lahore”.

He said the Maryam Nawaz Institute of Cardiovascular Diseases had been made autonomous and would not be under the administrative control of Jinnah Hospital.

The plan for this new institute (Jinnah Institute of Cardiology) was announced by the then chief minister Mohsin Naqvi in October 2023 in the building adjacent to Jinnah Hospital.

Published in Dawn, July 1st, 2025

ISLAMABAD: Federal Minister for Power Division, Sardar Awais Ahmed Khan Leghari has written letters to all the chief ministers about the decision to discontinue the collection of electricity duty through electricity bills starting July 2025.

In his letters, the federal minister sought support of all the chief ministers in removing complexity arising from multiple charges, taxes, and duties being collected through consumer bills.

He said that high electricity tariffs are already a significant challenge, and the additional burden of various levies further complicates the billing structure, making it difficult for consumers to understand and manage their electricity costs.

Power smart app introduced to get rid of over-billing

The federal minister in his letters highlighted the federal government efforts regarding various measures to reduce power tariffs, including renegotiating Independent Power Producer (IPP) contracts, lowering the Return on Equity (ROE) for government-owned power plants, and implementing other structural reforms.

He said in parallel, we are also committed to simplifying electricity bills so that they primarily reflect the actual cost of power consumption rather than serving as a collection mechanism for various additional charges.

Leghari in his letter wrote that to achieve this objective, we are considering the removal of non-electricity-related charges from consumer bills.

“As part of this initiative, the Power Division has decided to discontinue the collection of Electricity Duty through electricity bills starting from July 2025. We request provincial governments to explore alternative mechanisms for collecting provincial levies and duties, rather than relying on electricity bills as a collection channel.” He expressed the confidence that this will not only make electricity bills more transparent and easier to comprehend but also ensure that consumers are paying only for the cost of electricity, rather than a mix of other charges.

The federal minister also sought cooperation of all the chief ministers in identifying and implementing alternative revenue collection methods instrumental in making this initiative a success.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2025

ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Monday unveiled a bold vision to propel the country into the ranks of the world’s premier tourist destinations, aiming to revive the struggling tourism sector and unlock vast untapped economic potential.

The prime minister while chairing a high-profile meeting on tourism promotion, painted a vivid picture of Pakistan’s breathtaking natural assets – from towering snow-capped peaks and lush forests to rushing rivers, vast plains, and sun-drenched deserts. “Pakistan is a hidden gem, brimming with beauty and resources that rival any global hotspot.”

PM Sharif said we are determined to re-brand Pakistan on the world tourism map, with provinces working hand-in-hand to showcase our country’s stunning diversity.

Tourism industry promotion: PM for preparing comprehensive plan

The prime minister gave a clear directive to the Pakistan Tourism Development Authority (PTDA) to fast-track the creation of exclusive tourism zones and promised a seamless partnership between public and private sectors to roll out the red carpet for international visitors.

Domestic tourism was also in PM Sharif’s sights, with calls for bold measures to entice locals to explore and rediscover their own backyard. He stressed the need for sustainable investment and innovative campaigns to spotlight medical tourism and the majestic northern regions. “Under our national development agenda, Pakistan will no longer be a well-kept secret – we will rise as a top global tourist destination.”

The meeting drew key players including federal ministers, Attaullah Tarar, Hanif Abbasi, Engineer Amir Maqam, Prime Minister’s Adviser Rana Sanaullah, and senior officials, signalling a united push to turbo charge the sector.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2025

ISLAMABAD: Real GDP grew by 2.68 percent in fiscal year 2025, while inflation eased steadily, which is expected to remain within the range of 3-4 percent for June 2025, said Finance Division.

The Division in its monthly “Economic update and outlook June 2025” stated that cumulatively, Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) declined by 1.5 percent during July-April fiscal year 2025, in contrast to a marginal growth of 0.3 percent recorded in the comparable period of last year.

LSM showed a mixed performance in April 2025, registering a year on year (YoY) growth of 2.3 percent while contracting by 3.2 percent month-on-month (MoM) basis. The outlook for LSM in the coming months appears positive, supported by encouraging trends in high-frequency indicators such as cement dispatches and automobile sales.

Fitch upgrades Pakistan’s rating: macroeconomic stabilisation acknowledged

It further stated that the country’s economy continued growth momentum in fiscal year 2025, supported by strengthened macroeconomic fundamentals, prudent fiscal management, and improved external sector performance.

Current account recorded a surplus of $1.81 billion, the fiscal deficit declined, and the primary surplus reached 3.2 percent of GDP in July-April fiscal year 2025. The ongoing International Monetary Fund (IMF) programs (Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), along with upgraded credit ratings, bolstered policy credibility and investor’s sentiment.

The government remains committed to structural reforms focused on tax harmonization, energy pricing, and privatization, while also advancing climate action through dedicated initiatives to lay the foundation for inclusive and sustainable growth, it added.

The uptake in loans to private sector businesses suggests rising production activities and improved investor confidence. On the external front, higher remittances and exports will continue to keep the current account in surplus for fiscal year 2025.

The report did not include information about public sector development program (PSDP) releases. Credit flow to private sector registered Rs676.6 billion during July 1 to June 13, fiscal year 2025 against Rs323.5 billion in the comparable period of last year.

In May 2025, YoY Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation recorded at 3.5 percent, compared to 11.8 percent in May 2024. MoM, it has declined by 0.2 percent, following a 0.8 percent decrease in April and a 3.2 percent decline in May 2024.

For the Kharif season 2025-26, the federal government has set targets of 2.2 million hectares for cotton cultivation area and 10.18 million bales for production. During July-April 2025, agricultural credit disbursement reached Rs 2,066.6 billion, an increase of 15.7 percent, moving steadily toward the annual target of Rs 2,572.3 billion.

During July-April 2025, the increase in revenues outpaced the growth in expenditures, showing the effectiveness of ongoing consolidation efforts. Net federal receipts grew by 44.4 percent to Rs 8,124.2 billion during July-April 2025 from Rs 5,627.5 billion last year.

The rise in revenues is primarily contributed by 68.1 percent growth in non-tax collections. Further, tax collection witnessed a significant increase, as in July-May fiscal year 2025, it grew by 25.9 percent to Rs 10,233.9 billion from Rs 8,125.7 billion last year. The increase is attributed to a 33.8 percent increase in FED, followed by a 27.0 percent increase in direct tax, a 26.5 percent increase in sales tax, and a 16.3 percent increase in customs.

Total expenditure increased by 18.5 percent to Rs 12,948.3 billion during July-April fiscal year 2025 compared to Rs 10,922.5 billion last year. This growth in expenditure is driven by a significant increase in development spending, relative to moderate growth in current expenditures. Current spending grew by 17.8 percent, while PSDP expenditure increased by 40.6 percent.

Overall, the fiscal deficit reduced to 3.2 percent of GDP during July-April 2025 from 4.5 percent last year. While primary surplus increased to Rs 3,648.9 billion (3.2 percent of GDP) during July-April 2025 from Rs 1,611.5 billion (1.5 percent of GDP) last year. With ongoing efforts, the fiscal deficit is expected to stay well below the level observed last year.

The external account position continued to improve during July-May fiscal year 2025 on account of rising remittances and exports. The current account posted a $1.8 billion surplus, reversing the deficit of $1.6 billion last year.

Goods exports rose 4 percent to $29.7 billion, while imports increased 11.5 percent to $54.1 billion, widening the trade deficit to $24.4 billion from $20.0 billion last year. Gains in key exports were observed in knitwear (14.5 per cent), garments (16.4 per cent), and bedwear (10.6 per cent).

Increases in major imports were recorded in palm oil (26.3 per cent), electrical machinery (13.6 per cent), while crude oil imports decreased (1.7 per cent). Service exports grew 8.5 percent to $7.6 billion; imports rose 6.6 percent to $10.3 billion, resulting in a service trade deficit of $2.7 billion. IT exports increased by 18.7 percent to $3.5 billion.

Remittances reached $34.9 billion, up 28.8 percent from $27.1 billion, led by inflows from Saudi Arabia (24.4 per cent share) and UAE (20.4 per cent). Net FDI recorded at $2.0 billion compared to $2.1 billion last year. Financial services sector attracted the highest FDI ($628.9 million), followed by power ($562.8 million), and oil & gas exploration ($265.6 million) attracted the most FDI.

However, Foreign Portfolio Investment, private and public, recorded net outflows of $312.5 million and $311.9 million, respectively. As of June 13th, 2025, foreign exchange reserves stood at $17.0 billion, including $11.7 billion with the State Bank of Pakistan.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), in its meeting held on June 16, 2025, decided to maintain the policy rate at 11 percent, citing potential inflation risks, along with external imbalances and regional uncertainties. The MPC noted that while YoY inflation in May stood at 3.5 percent, it is expected to remain within the range of 5.0 to 7.0 percent in fiscal year 2026.

During July 1stMay 30th fiscal year 2025, broad money (M2) grew by 6.3 percent, compared to 9.5 percent last year. This expansion was primarily driven by a sharp increase in Net Foreign Assets (Rs 1,279.2 billion compared to Rs 480.6 billion last year), while growth in Net Domestic Assets moderated to Rs 982.7 billion from Rs 2,460.3 billion a year earlier.

Private sector credit demonstrated significant expansion, rising to Rs 831.8 billion, more than double the Rs 351 billion recorded in the corresponding period last year. In May 2025, the KSE-100 index performed well, gained 8,365 points and closed at 119,691 points at month end. Similarly, the market capitalization of PSX increased by Rs 982billion to close at Rs 14,503 billion.

In May 2025, the Bureau of Emigration & Overseas Employment registered 59,995 workers, a 12.7 percent increase from 53,231 in April. The Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund, in partnership with 24 organizations, disbursed 18,525 interest-free loans worth Rs 894 million in May 2025. Since 2019, a total of 3.01 million loans amounting to Rs 117.61 billion have been provided.

During July-April fiscal year 2025, Rs 411.56 billion was spent under the BISP, representing a 29 percent increase compared to last year, against an allocation of Rs 592.5 billion.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2025