Category: 1. Pakistan

SOUTH Asia is more than a geographical reg­ion; it is an interlinked ecosystem where decision-makers, service providers and communities must collaborate through coordinated and inclusive planning to build resilience and safeguard lives.

As the global power axis pivots towards Asia, China’s role in South and Southwest Asia becomes central to advancing regional climate security and addressing shared environmental concerns. The urgency of this shift is underlined by the limited progress made under multilateral frameworks like the Conference of the Parties and the Paris Agreement. As COP30 convenes in Brazil this year and the Paris Agreement turns 10, millions remain vulnerable to rising climate threats with no immediate mechanisms to mitigate risks.

Climate change is multidimensional, the solutions multilateral, and the power dynamics multipolar. These three elements must align to secure a fair and sustainable future for all. This demands a strategic rethink and a policy reset prioritising ecological survival as the region’s foremost foreign policy challenge.

In this context, three countries — China, India, and Pakistan — and one issue — water — will shape the fate of the Third Pole countries.

China’s transformation since the 1980s from a closed agrarian society to a global powerhouse with advanced technology and robust human capital makes it the most influential player in the region. With a $19.23 trillion economy, China has lifted 800 million people out of poverty and made progress in other critical areas. As the uppermost riparian in the Himalaya-Karakoram-Hindukush (HKH) system, China commands a total reservoir capacity nearing 1tr cubic metres.

Political thinking must evolve to meet the existential threat of climate change.

India, with a population of 1.4 billion and an economy worth $4.37tr, has made significant progress since the 1990s. Although malnutrition remains a concern, it has lifted 171m people out of extreme poverty. As a mid-riparian country, India possesses many major reservoirs, with a water storage capacity of 170 days. It remains a critical player in regional water-sharing arrangements.

Pakistan, with 240m people, faces a shrinking resource base. The state has shown resilience during periods of sluggish economic growth and aims to transition to a middle-income country. However, mounting climate losses, unsustainable population growth, and rising inflation will make the task challenging. As a lower riparian, Pakistan relies on a single basin and one river with just 30 days of water storage capacity.

All three nations are nuclear powers, possess strong militaries, and are entangled in unresolved political disputes. Ironically, they choose to ignore a common threat — climate change — that is far more dangerous than any military adversary. Rapidly warming temperatures are destabilising the cryosphere, especially in the Third Pole, where snow and glacial melt sustain over a billion lives. The consequences of this ecological breakdown will be more destructive than any damage inflicted by the most advanced war machinery.

The future ‘climate wars’ will be multi-domain battles involving melting glaciers, collapsing cryospheres, rising sea levels, devastating floods, forest fires, extreme heatwaves and violent storms. Ignoring these escalating threats, while signs of carbon feedback loops manifest across ecosystems, is reckless.

A cooperative riparian governance mechanism is crucial for stabilising the hydrological regime in the HKH region. Failure to do so will deepen existing vulnerabilities and could spark tensions over diminishing resources. To move forward will require focusing on immediate threats that necessitate working together despite differences in other areas. Water security must be seen as the cornerstone and hydro diplomacy placed at the heart of regional security to avert a flashpoint situation.

As the world’s second-largest economy with growing technological capabilities and a rising middle class, China has the capacity to shape the 21st-century geopolitical landscape and must now extend that leadership to climate security. As the uppermost riparian, China could initiate a regional COP, followed by rotational country hosting focusing on the cryosphere.

Historically, China has used stability to fuel prosperity. Hosting a regional COP will not only unite HKH countries to develop joint strategies for risk reduction and sustainable water governance but also demonstrate leadership grounded in shared ecological interests, not political divisions.

A collective regional strategy to manage the Third Pole can bring key stakeholders to the table and foster an ecological coalition centred on natural systems and human well-being. This would provide a much-needed platform for collaboration, risk reduction, and long-term ecological sustainability among HKH countries. Without it, the region faces the dual risk of environmental collapse and political conflict.

Leadership in climate diplomacy would also align with the region’s civilisational values. Chinese philosophy has long revered water as the source of life. In the Analects, Confucius draws parallels between the nature of water and the qualities of wise people — fluid, adaptable and ever-changing. Water’s strength lies in its flexibility; so too must nations adapt to shifting circumstance.

It is time to heed this civilisational wisdom. Just as rivers must flow to sustain life, so too must political thinking evolve to meet the existential threat of climate change. A new climate security axis must emerge, rooted in cooperation, ecological stewardship and a shared vision for human security.

South Asia is in peril and needs a regional water accord for peace. Climate change is a non-traditional threat that cannot be resolved through tactical warfare. Nukes will not be able to stop hydrometeorological disasters, nor will tanks and fighter jets be able to rebuild shattered lives or restore fractured societies.

Talks, however, could avert conditions from becoming flashpoints of conflict and lead to solutions that work for all. This is a time for peace, not war.

The writer is chief executive of the Civil Society Coalition for Climate Change.

aisha@csccc.org.pk

Published in Dawn, July 26th, 2025

PESHAWAR: With the Pakistan Meteorological Department forecasting more downpours from July 27 to 31 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the Provincial Disaster Management Authority has warned district administrations about floods and landslides, asking them to act immediately to minimise damage to public life and property.

It stressed the need for clearing rainwater drainage systems and strengthening vulnerable structures.

In an advisory for the deputy commissioners across the province, the PDMA quoted the PMD as revealing that another bout of monsoon rains will begin in most parts of the province on July27 that will last until July 31.

It pointed out that under the influence of the new meteorological conditions, rain accompanied by lightning and gusty winds was very likely over Haripur, Abbottabad, Mansehra, Chitral, Dir, Swat, Buner, Malakand, Battagram, Shangla, Kohistan, Kolai Pallas Kohistan, Torghar, Peshawar, Mardan, Swabi, Nowshera, Charsadda, Bajaur, Mohmand, Khyber, Orakzai, Kurram, Kohat, Hangu, Bannu, Karak, Lakki Marwat, Dera Ismail Khan, Tank, North and South Waziristan from July 27 night to 31 with occasional gaps.

PDMA asks authorities to clear drainage channels, strengthen vulnerable structures

The PDMA said that heavy to very heavy rainfall was likely at isolated and scattered locations over the province during the period.

It sounded the alarm, saying that the downpours could cause flash floods in nullahs and streams of Galiyat, Mansehra, Kohistan, Kolai- Palas Kohistan, Abbottabad, Buner, Bajaur, Battagram, Buner, Hangu, Torghar, Haripur, Karak, Chitral, Dir, Swat, Shangla, Khyber, Kohat, Nowshera, Swabi, Mardan, Peshawar, Shangla, Kurram, Lakki Marwat, Malakand, Mansehra, Mohmand, Orakzai, Dera Ismail Khan, Bannu, Tank and North and South Waziristan districts.

Also, there is a likelihood of flooding in low-lying areas of Mardan, Nowshera, Peshawar, Kohat and Dera Ismail Khan as well asin the Chitral, Swat, Panjkora and Kabul rivers.

The PDMA also warned authorities about landslides, which, it said, could cause road closures in the vulnerable hilly areas of Abbottabad, Battagram, Buner, Chitral, Dir, Khyber, Kohistan, Kolai-Palas, Kohistan, Kurram, Malakand, Mansehra, Mohmand, Orakzai, Shangla, Swat, Torghar and North Waziristan.

It pointed out that heavy rainfall, windstorms and lightning could damage weak structures like roofs and walls of mud houses, electric poles, billboards, vehicles and solar panels.

The PDMA urged district administrations to take precautionary measures to minimise damage to public and animal lives and infrastructure.

It also recommended assessment and planning of the deployment of additional resources, checking traffic to and in the vicinity of vulnerable choke points and tourist spots, and keeping people away from loose structures like buildings under construction, advertisement hoardings, electric poles, solar panels to prevent losses and save lives.

The PDMA urged district administrations to regularly monitor flow of water into rivers and streams, clear waste from drainage systems to facilitate the smooth flow of water and minimise the risk of urban flooding, coordinate with municipal administrations for mitigation and preparedness measures for landslides and urban flooding and protect billboards and hoardings from strong winds, thunderstorms and hailstorms.

It also said that farmers should take necessary measures to protect their crops from winds, rain and hailstorms.

“Travellers on provincial and national highways in at-risk and affected areas should be forewarned of adverse conditions and detoured to safe waiting areas under the guidance of local authorities, national highway and motorway police and law-enforcement agencies,” it said in the advisory.

Published in Dawn, July 26th, 2025

ISLAMABAD: President Asif Zardari on Friday met Saudi Ambassador Nawaf bin Saeed Ahmed Al-Malki to discuss ways to enhance bilateral cooperation, particularly in trade, economy and culture.

During the meeting, President Zardari invited Saudi investors to explore opportunities in Pakistan.

“Pakistan and Saudi Arabia enjoy deep-rooted and historic relations based on shared faith and mutual trust,” the president said, emphasising the importance of strengthening economic ties for the mutual benefit of both nations.

He expressed gratitude to the Kingdom for its continued support, especially during times of need, and noted that both countries share similar views on regional and international issues.

Published in Dawn, July 26th, 2025

• Fifth monsoon spell to hit Punjab; urban flooding feared
• Landslides may block roads in Murree, Galiyat, GB, AJK
• Karakoram Highway blocked again; tourists evacuated via C-130 flights

RAWALPINDI / LAHORE / GILGIT: The Pakistan Meteo­rological Department (PMD) has forecast another spell of monsoon rains across the country from July 29 to 31, urging provincial and district administrations to take precautionary measures.

According to the Met Office, weak monsoon currents are continuously penetrating the upper and central parts of the country and are likely to intensify next week. A westerly wave is expected to approach on July 29.

Rain accompanied by wind and isolated heavy showers is expected in Azad Jammu and Kashmir (including Neelum Valley, Muzaffarabad, Rawalakot, Poonch, Hattian, Bagh, Haveli, Sudhanoti, Kotli, Bhimber, Mirpur) and Gilgit-Baltistan (Diamer, Astore, Ghizer, Skardu, Hunza, Gilgit, Ghanche, Shigar) from July 27 to 31 with occasional gaps.

In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, rain and thundershowers are forecast from July 28 to 31 for several districts, inclu­ding Dir, Chitral, Swat, Kohi­stan, Shangla, Battagram, Mansehra, Abbot­tabad, Haripur, Buner, Mala­kand, Bajaur, Mohmand, Khyber, Orakzai, Kurram, Kohat, Peshawar, Char­sadda, Nowshera, Mardan, Swabi and Dera Ismail Khan.

In Punjab and Islamabad, rain with scattered heavy showers is expected in Rawalpindi, Islamabad, Murree, Galiyat, Lahore, Gujra­nwala, Fais­alabad and several other cities between July 28 and 31. Southern Punjab, including DG Khan, Multan and Bahawalpur, will see similar weather from July 29 to 31.

In Balochistan, rain and thundershowers with isolated heavy falls are expected in the north-eastern and southern districts from the night of July 29 to 31 July, including Barkhan, Musakhel, Loralai, Sibbi, Dera Bugti, Lasbela, Awaran, Khuzdar, Quetta, Zhob, Qilla Saifullah, Qila Abdullah, Ziarat and Kalat.

In Sindh, mainly hot and humid weather will prevail, but rain and thunder showers are expected in several parts, including Tharparkar, Umerkot, Dadu, Larkana and Sukkur, on July 30 and 31.

The PMD warned of potential flash floods in hilly streams of KP, northeast Balochistan, northeast Punjab and Kashmir from July 29 to 31. Urban flooding is likely in low-lying areas of Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Gujranwala, Lahore and Sialkot from July 28 (night) to July 31.

Landslides and mudslides may block roads in hilly areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, Murree, Galiyat and Kashmir during the forecast period.

Fifth monsoon spell

In a joint advisory, the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) of Punjab and the PMD forecast the fifth spell of monsoon rains in the province for the upcoming week.

Rain, wind and thundershowers with scattered heavy falls are expected in Lahore, Rawalpindi, Faisalabad and several other districts, while southern Punjab will receive rainfall between July 29 and 31.

PDMA Director General Irfan Ali Kathia ordered all commissioners and deputy commissioners to remain alert and complete precautionary measures. Civil defence, rescue services and related departments have been instructed to ensure preparedness.

He warned of possible landslides in Murree and Galiyat and damage to mud houses and weak structures. He also urged citizens to avoid unnecessary travel, refrain from crossing flooded roads and stay away from electrical infrastructure.

According to a PDMA fact sheet, Punjab witnessed rainfall in many parts over the last 24 hours, with Multan receiving 117mm, Lahore 43mm, Sheikhupura 37mm, Hafizabad 15mm, Okara 13mm and Sahiwal 12mm.

Moreover, 10 people were injured due to roof collapses in the last 12 hours. However, there was no loss of life due to accidents caused by rain in the last 24 hours.

The fact sheet also revealed 54 per cent water storage in Mangla Dam, 79pc in Tarbela and medium-level flooding in the Indus River at Chashma and Taunsa.

The flow of water in the Chenab, Ravi, Jhelum and Sutlej rivers is currently at normal levels.

The Punjab government has banned bathing in rivers, canals and storm drains, warning of strict action against violators.

GB faces climate emergency

Meanwhile, the Gilgit-Baltistan government said on Friday that the region is in the grip of severe climate change impacts, as floods triggered by melting glaciers and cloudbursts continue to cause widespread devastation.

People in several areas faced shortages of drinking and irrigation water, electricity, internet, telephone services and road access, as floods, landslides and soil erosion damaged roads, water channels, irrigation systems, power infrastructure and optical fibre networks.

In a media briefing, GB Chief Secretary Abrar Ahmed Mirza confirmed that nine people, including two women and two children, have died since July 10, including eight in Diamer’s Babusar and Thor valleys and one in Astore.

He said many areas were cut off due to landslides and mudflows. The Karakoram Highway was blocked again at Chilas, after which C-130 flight operations were started to evacuate stranded tourists and patients to Islamabad. Four tourists were airlifted from Fairy Meadows near Nanga Parbat.

Floods destroyed 196 homes, damaged another 200 and swept away over 12km of roads, 26 bridges, 20 vehicles, agricultural land and other infrastructure, including water channels and communication lines.

Mr Mirza said relief efforts are underway, with tents, food and emergency supplies being delivered. He acknowledged the growing frequency of cloudbursts and glacier melt, attributing the disasters to climate change.

Special flights from Skardu and Gilgit to Islamabad have begun, with 135 people, including 80 tourists, flown out so far. Search operations are underway for 10 to 12 missing tourists in Babusar Valley.

The GB government asked citizens to follow travel advisories and announced plans to review early warning systems, including the UNDP-funded Glof-II project.

Published in Dawn, July 26th, 2025

We reaffirm the importance of conserving and restoring one of the most vital coastal ecosystems. In Pakistan, mangroves are predominantly found in the Indus Delta region of Sindh, which supports one of the largest arid climate mangrove systems in the world. We also have number of sites that are home to some of the rich mangrove ecosystem along the coast of Balochistan.

Mangroves play a critical ecological and socio-economic role. They serve as nursery habitats for marine life, protect coastal settlements from erosion and storm surges, and support the livelihoods of thousands of people engaged in fishing and small-scale resource use. Most notably in today’s context, mangroves are highly effective carbon sinks, which have the capacity to sequester several times more carbon per hectare than many terrestrial forests. Their conservation is therefore essential not only for biodiversity but also for climate resilience.

With sustainable management, the restoration and conservation of mangrove ecosystems offer a promising pathway for generating carbon credits, attracting international climate finance, and creating meaningful livelihood opportunities through green jobs, strengthened local economies, and the promotion of nature based enterprises in coastal communities.

IUCN Pakistan has remained committed to the protection and restoration of mangrove ecosystems. Over the years, in partnership with the Sindh Forest Department and other stakeholders, IUCN has facilitated community-based restoration activities, capacity building, and technical support to strengthen coastal resource management using the approach of Nature-based Solutions.

IUCN Pakistan also helped to formulate the National Coordinating Body (NCB) which comprises of 27 Member organisation including the Ministry of Climate Change and Environmental Coordination, provincial government departments, non-traditional partners and civil society organisation. Such forums are available for restoration and upscaling of conservation initiatives.

Only recently, IUCN Pakistan completed a comprehensive nationwide assessment of mangrove forests in Pakistan under the monitoring of the Upscaling Green Pakistan Programme. The study provided updated data on mangrove distribution, condition, and the pressures they face. The report outlines the status of mangrove forests along Pakistan’s coastline, identifying key threats such as freshwater scarcity, pollution, and land-use change, and highlights the role of institutions in their protection and restoration. The assessment goes on to urge the need to further the mangrove conservation agenda in light of heightened climate impacts and reinforces the role of mangroves as vital contributors to fisheries-based livelihoods.

I would like to pay tribute to the late Mr Tahir Qureshi, fondly known as the Mangrove Man or Baba e Mangroves, for his lifelong dedication to the plantation and restoration of mangroves in Pakistan. His passion and commitment left a lasting positive impact on our coastal ecosystems.

As we commemorate World Mangroves Day 2025, IUCN Pakistan urges all stakeholders including the Government, non-traditional partners, local communities, civil society organisations, the private sector, and the media, for coordinated and sustained efforts towards the conservation and restoration of mangrove ecosystems. This day serves as a timely reminder that mangroves are not merely coastal vegetation; they also constitute essential natural infrastructure that builds climate resilience, supports biodiversity, and contributes directly to national priorities.

Together, through knowledge, commitment, and action, we can ensure that mangroves continue to thrive and provide for future generations.

Mahmood Akhtar Cheema
Country Representative
IUCN Pakistan
 

ISLAMABAD: As jailed former PM Imran Khan completes two years in prison, his sons – Sulaiman and Qasim – have stepped into the political spotlight, launching an aggressive lobbying campaign in the United States to press for their father’s release just days before Khan’s call for a nationwide protest on Aug 5, which has put the state on edge.Khan, arrested on Aug 5, 2023, remains behind bars despite some convictions being overturned. He is currently serving time in three major cases that his party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), claims are part of a broader effort to keep him out of politics.He was convicted in the Toshakhana case, involving the illegal sale of state gifts received during his premiership. He was sentenced in the cipher case, accused of leaking classified diplomatic correspondence for political gain. And in the Al-Qadir Trust case, Khan and his wife were held liable for controversial land deals linked to a charitable trust.PTI has consistently maintained that the charges are politically motivated, aimed at “eliminating the most popular leader” in the country.Now, with most of PTI’s senior leadership jailed, exiled, or forced to resign, Khan’s sons have taken the international route. Based in the UK, the brothers have held meetings in Washington DC with US lawmakers, policy groups and human rights organisations, and are reportedly preparing to testify before congressional panels.Their message: Imran Khan is being held in solitary confinement in inhumane conditions, denied light, medical access, and family contact.The campaign has triggered speculation about whether the two sons might return to Pakistan, possibly to appear at the planned protest. While PTI has not confirmed this, party insiders say their presence could act as a powerful morale boost for the party’s dispersed support base.Meanwhile, the state has moved swiftly to neutralise any protest momentum. On July 22, an anti-terror court in Lahore sentenced eight senior PTI leaders, including Dr Yasmin Rashid, to 10 years in prison for their alleged role in the May 9 riots, when military installations were targeted after Khan’s initial arrest. Observers see the convictions as a tactical strike to undercut mobilisation ahead of the Aug 5 protest. The verdicts have raised concerns among legal experts about the selective use of terrorism laws against political opponents.From prison, Khan has issued a call for unity among PTI ranks, urging supporters to “shun differences” and prepare for what he called a decisive moment for Pakistan’s democracy. But the party remains fractured and leaderless, with ongoing rifts between loyalists and factions seen as open to negotiations with the establishment.At the heart of the political storm is the army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, who was controversially elevated to five-star rank in May. PTI blames him, along with PML-N and PPP leaders, for orchestrating what it calls a civil-military clampdown to sideline Khan and crush dissent.In a recent prison note, Khan mocked Munir as the “King of the Jungle”, accusing him of ruling the country through “fear, not law”.

Federal Minister for Climate Change and Environmental Coordination, Dr Musadik Malik, has strongly urged global climate leaders to honour their climate finance commitments and foster greater cooperation between developed and developing nations.

Malik’s remarks were made during the COP29 Heads of Delegation (HoD) Retreat, a closed-door dialogue involving Heads of Delegation from around the world, held in Shamakhi, Azerbaijan.

The retreat aimed to build trust and strategise for significant outcomes at the upcoming COP29 summit, slated for later this year in Azerbaijan.

Key unresolved issues dominated the discussion, including critical matters of climate financing, mechanisms for addressing loss and damage, and the persistent gap in implementing emissions reduction pledges.

Speaking during the high-level gathering, Malik emphasised the need for “climate justice, equity, and stronger collaboration between the Global North and South” in tackling the escalating climate crisis.

He highlighted Pakistan’s acute vulnerability to climate change, noting that despite contributing minimally to global emissions, the country faces severe climate-related disasters, including floods, droughts, and extreme heat.

“The time for promises is over. Developing countries like Pakistan need inclusive and transparent access to climate finance, technology, and adaptation support,” said Malik. “The world cannot afford delay — the Paris Agreement must be honoured in both letter and spirit.”

He reiterated Pakistan’s commitment to a climate-resilient and sustainable development pathway and its active participation in shaping a fair and effective international climate framework.

The minister also called on developed nations to meet their pledged contributions to the $100 billion annual climate finance goal, a promise made under the 2015 Paris Agreement to help poorer countries cope with climate impacts.

Pakistan, ranked among the top 10 most climate-vulnerable countries globally, has in recent years faced deadly monsoons and rising temperatures that have displaced millions and damaged infrastructure.

The country has been a vocal advocate for equitable climate action and greater support for adaptation and mitigation efforts in the Global South.

The HoD retreat marks an important milestone in the lead-up to COP29, offering an opportunity for countries to align on key priorities ahead of formal negotiations.