Category: 1. Pakistan

ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif has called for a “comprehensive and structured dialogue” to discuss all outstanding disputes to ensure a lasting peace in South Asia.

In the context of relations with neighbours, the Prime Minister said that Pakistan sought normal relations with all its neighbours, preferred dialogue and diplomacy over confrontation.

Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif led the Pakistan delegation to the Summit meetings of the SCO Council of Heads of State (CHS) and SCO CHS Plus presided by President Xi Jinping of China in Tianjin, China, on 31 August – 01 September 2025.

Prime Minister of Pakistan heaps praise on Chinese President Xi’s vision

In his statement during the SCO CHS Summit, Prime Minister Sharif reaffirmed Pakistan’s commitment to the “Shanghai Spirit” that stands for mutual trust and respect for shared prosperity and development.

Reaffirming the purposes and principles of UN and SCO Charters, the Prime Minister underscored that Pakistan respects the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all SCO members as well as all international and bilateral treaties. Hoping that all SCO members follow these principles, he called for unhindered access to due share of water as per existing treaties among the SCO member States.

Condemning terrorism in all its forms and manifestations, including state terrorism, the Prime Minister underlined that Pakistan had rendered great sacrifices in combating terrorism for the regional and global stability. He mentioned that Pakistan had irrefutable evidence of foreign involvement in the Jaffar Express train hostage incident and numerous other terror attacks in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces.

Prime Minister outlined the Government’s economic transformation plan, that is founded on three pillars: expansion of trade, innovation and enhanced revenue generation.

The Prime Minister unequivocally denounced Israel’s inhuman military offensive against Gaza and called for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire. He condemned the attack on Iran, a fellow SCO member State.

Reiterating the negative implications of instability in Afghanistan on the development of the entire SCO region, Prime Minister Sharif called for engagement with Afghanistan in a meaningful manner.

The Prime Minister highly praised the SCO’s vision of regional connectivity and economic integration and underscored Pakistan’s strategic geographical location as an ideal trade and transit hub for the entire SCO region. He noted the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor as a key initiative for achieving trans-regional economic and trade integration.

The CHS discussed important regional and international strategic political, security and economic issues, challenges, and developments.

The Council approved and adopted several decisions and statements in various areas of cooperation. Besides adopting the Tianjin Declaration that outlines the views of SCO leadership on important regional and global issues of interest to the Organization, the CHS adopted statements of cooperation among SCO countries on: Multilateral Trading System; Artificial Intelligence; Strengthening Scientific, Technical and Innovative Cooperation; Green Industry Cooperation and others.

The Heads of State signed two agreements establishing two new permanent bodies of SCO, i.e. Universal Centre in Moscow and the Anti-Drug Centre in Dushanbe. The Council also approved various plans and strategies for the ongoing cooperation in the economic and security fields. The SCO Development Strategy until 2035 was also adopted.

In his statement during the SCO CHS Plus meeting on the theme “Promoting multilateralism a reality, ensuring regional security, and promoting sustainable development.”, the Prime Minister stressed the need for multilateralism and respecting the purposes and principles of the UN Charter and resolution of disputes through peaceful means.

Expressing Pakistan’s firm belief in the promise and power of multilateralism, he advised to uphold dialogue, mutual respect, and inclusive diplomacy. He advocated that SCO must prioritize innovation-driven growth. He welcomed SCO’s commitment to cooperation in development and assured that Pakistan would contribute as a reliable partner.

The Prime Minister welcomed the Lao People’s Democratic Republic as a new Dialogue Partner of SCO. He also welcomed President Xi Jinping’s Global Governance Initiative and appreciated the able Chinese Chairmanship of SCO during last one year.

On the sidelines of these Summits, the Prime Minister had important bilateral meetings with the Presidents of SCO member States and Dialogue Partners States.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2025

The Taliban has called for international aid as Afghanistan reels from an earthquake that killed more than 800 people and left thousands injured.

Rescuers searched into the night for survivors on Monday after the 6.0 magnitude quake struck on Sunday. Many were trapped under the debris of simple mud and stone homes built into steep valleys.

Rescuers struggled to reach remote areas due to rough mountainous terrain and inclement weather. The worst of the destruction was in Kunar province, which borders Pakistan.

The dead, some of them children, were wrapped in white shrouds by villagers who prayed over their bodies before burying them, while helicopters ferried the wounded to hospitals.

“The rooms and walls collapsed … killing some children and injuring others,” said 22-year-old Zafar Khan Gojar, who was evacuated from Nurgal to Jalalabad along with his brother, whose leg was broken.

The disaster will further stretch the resources of the war-torn nation’s Taliban administration, already grappling with crises ranging from a sharp drop in foreign aid to deportations of hundreds of thousands of Afghans by neighbouring countries.

Sharafat Zaman, spokesperson for the health ministry in Kabul, called for international aid to tackle the devastation wrought by the quake of magnitude 6 that struck around midnight local time, at a depth of 10 km (6 miles).

“We need it because here lots of people lost their lives and houses,” he told Reuters.

The quake killed 812 people in the eastern provinces of Kunar and Nangarhar, administration spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid said.

Ziaul Haq Mohammadi, a student at Al-Falah University in the eastern city of Jalalabad, was studying in his room at home when the quake struck. He said he tried to stand up but was knocked over by the power of the tremor.

“We spent the whole night in fear and anxiety because at any moment another earthquake could happen,” Mohammadi said.

Rescuers were battling to reach remote mountainous areas cut off from mobile networks along the Pakistani border, where mudbrick homes dotting the slopes collapsed in the quake.

“The area of the earthquake was affected by heavy rain in the last 24-48 hours as well, so the risk of landslides and rock slides is also quite significant – that is why many of the roads are impassable,” Kate Carey, an officer at the UN Office for the coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA), told Reuters.

Rescue teams and authorities are trying to dispose of animal carcasses quickly so as to minimise the risk of contamination to water resources, Carey said.

Casualties could rise as rescue teams access more isolated locations, authorities said.

“All our … teams have been mobilised to accelerate assistance, so that comprehensive and full support can be provided,” said health ministry spokesperson Abdul Maten Qanee, citing efforts in areas from security to food and health.

Reuters Television images showed helicopters ferrying out the affected, while residents helped security forces and medics carry the wounded to ambulances in an area with a long history of earthquakes and floods.

Military rescue teams fanned out across the region, the defence ministry said, with 40 flights carrying away 420 wounded and dead.

The quake razed three villages in Kunar, with substantial damage in many others, authorities said. At least 610 people were killed in Kunar with 12 dead in Nangarhar, they added.

Some villagers sat weeping amid the piled ruins of their homes. Others began laboriously clearing the debris by hand, or carried out the injured on makeshift stretchers.

“This is Mazar Dara in Nurgal district. The entire village has been destroyed,” one victim told reporters. “Children and elders are trapped under the rubble. We need urgent help.“

Another survivor said: “We need ambulances, we need doctors, we need everything to rescue the injured and recover the dead.”

It was Afghanistan’s third major deadly quake since the Taliban took over in 2021 as foreign forces withdrew, triggering a cut to the international funding that formed the bulk of government finances.

Diplomats and aid officials say crises elsewhere in the world, along with donor frustration over the Taliban’s policies towards women, including curbs on those who are aid workers, have spurred the cuts in funding.

Even humanitarian aid, aimed at bypassing political institutions to serve urgent needs, has shrunk to $767m this year, down from $3.8b in 2022.

On Monday, Britain set out emergency funding support for those affected by the recent earthquakes, saying it would ensure that the aid does not go to the South Asian country’s current Taliban administration by channelling it through its partners.

Britain’s 1-million-pound ($1.35-million) assistance will be split between the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) and the International Red Cross (IFRC) to deliver critical healthcare and emergency supplies to Afghans in the most affected regions, the government statement said.

“The UK remains committed to the people of Afghanistan, and this emergency funding will help our partners to deliver critical healthcare and emergency supplies to the most hard-hit,” British foreign minister David Lammy said in the statement.

A spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry said it was ready to provide disaster relief assistance “according to Afghanistan’s needs and within its capacity”.

Meanwhile, foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar of India said it had delivered 1,000 family tents to Kabul and was moving 15 tonnes of food material to Kunar, with more relief material to be sent from India starting on Tuesday.

The US state department’s Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs posted its condolences on X on Monday for the loss of life in the earthquake, but did not immediately respond when asked if the United States would provide any assistance.

With Reuters and Agence France-Presse

Rasheeda Bano

Rasheeda Bano

AFP via Getty Images

MORE provinces or empowered local governments? The debate has been sparked, it seems. And it wasn’t just due to forwarded-as-received WhatsApp posts, which ‘announced’ multiple, smaller provinces but also the research presented by media owners-turned-public intellectuals, who are so convinced of the need for this reform that they are now trying to shape opinion at large.

The government and its allies profess ignorance and deny that any such move is in the offing. But the rest of us know better and are taking these ‘mazameen’ (inspiration) from ‘ghaib’ (unknown) rather seriously. After all, unlike the government, the rest are openly aware of the importance of the unknown. As a result, the debate rages on.

More provinces are needed, we are told. India has been carving out states whenever needed. It helps improve governance because the ‘seat’ of the government is closer to the people; for instance, the people of south Punjab would find, say, Multan more accessible than Lahore. It would also ensure cities such as Karachi get the resources and attention they deserve. And, aside from these other benefits, some argue, it would also weaken political dynasties that control entire provinces.

But not everyone is convinced. In fact, there has been commentary and discussions highlighting how cumbersome and time-consuming the process of establishing new provinces could be. For instance, every new province requires a two-thirds majority in the relevant assembly and even if this is managed, it would be followed by a drawn-out process of administrative measures (such as the drawing up of new boundaries) and the setting up of governments in multiple parts of the country. It has been asked if this would not add to the existing polarisation. Local government has been offered as a solution — an alternative that has, perhaps, more supporters than the idea of new provinces.

Whether the empowerment of the people is really the objective is the question.

These proposals have generated an interest because of the acknowledgment that the current political system is not working and — whether in democratic set-up or a hybrid dispensation — all political parties have struggled with governance and implementation of the needed reform. This is the silent consensus regardless of party affiliation — other than the party heads who have turned parties and provinces into fiefdoms and have no interest in any change. Indeed, the 18th Amendment has ensured the older, mainstream parties now only have regional ambitions, ie, dominating the provinces rather than trying to increase their cross-country appeal. There is a direct link between the 18th Amendment and the increasing focus of the PPP in Sindh and the PML-N in Punjab.

But this is a digression. Most others realise the need for change in the political set-up, assuming, or rather hoping, that this will lead to badly needed reform, especially in the economic sphere, and an improvement in governance.

However, the various discussions on the topic should not ignore the larger, political context in which these solutions are conjured up. And this larger context is one in which political parties are hampered, civilian space is limited (if not non-existent) and very unsubtle efforts are being made to argue that parliamentary politics and parties have failed to deliver.

In the past, whenever we have had similar moments, the devolution of power has always been offered as the magical solution. This age-old formula is supposed to ease the people’s misery, empower them and rid them of corrupt politicians. But whether the empowerment of the people is really the objective is the question because it is offered at moments when the centralisation of power is also at play. It appears as if the present times may prove to be no different.

But this is not all. The second issue is that such efforts rarely prove permanent. Just consider Pervez Musharraf’s local government system. By the time general elections were held in 2002 and ‘parliamentary democracy’ restored, the politicians at the provincial and national level began to slowly reverse or weaken the local government systems. Come 2008, and the system was more or less wrapped up.

Once the 18th Amendment was passed, power was concentrated at the provincial level, and the local governments were left to the mercy of each government (the amendment conveniently allowed each provincial assembly to pass its own local government act and decide how much powers to devolve). Initially, even this legislation was delayed till pressure from the courts forced the hand of the provincial governments. And the parties running the provinces made sure they passed legislation that led to weak and ineffective local governments. Perhaps one can say that the local governments enjoyed about as much power as the present federal government does. Even the PTI, which introduced a relatively stronger local government in KP, progressively weakened them as time went on.

Hence, it might not be a waste of time to ask how long-lasting any such move will be. Partly because half the challenge in Pakistan is the back and forth between different experiments as elites try to strengthen themselves against their rivals. This tug of war means there is little stability in terms of the path ahead.

Perhaps what we need additionally at the moment is not just a discussion on the political reform needed but also a debate about what could create a consensus on the need for more devolution of power. What would push political parties to not just acknowledge but also accept the need for local governments or more provinces? Without this kind of a consensus, any such effort to devolve power will not be easy and if pushed through coercion, it will last as long as its creators enjoy power. Beyond that moment, anything is possible. Such formulas bring neither stability nor progress.

The writer is a journalist.

Published in Dawn, September 2nd, 2025

• PTI parliamentary body says international community showed little interest in flood relief
• Endorses boycott of by-polls and resignation from parliamentary committees; daily walkouts planned in NA and Senate to highlight ‘lack of democracy’ in country

ISLAMABAD: Claiming that the international community has not shown interest in supporting Pakistan after floods, the parliamentary committee of the PTI on Monday urged former prime minister Imran Khan to appeal to overseas Pakistanis to donate funds through Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) government to help flood-hit people in Punjab and KP.

The committee endorsed the decision of Imran Khan to boycott the by-elections and resign from parliamentary committees. It also decided to stage a daily boycott of the National Assembly to send a message to national and international community that the democracy does not exist in the country.

PTI leader Asad Qaiser, while talking to Dawn, said that during the meeting, Barrister Gohar Ali Khan briefed the committee on his meeting with party patron-in-chief Imran Khan, after which the committee endorsed the decision to boycott the by-elections and resign from parliamentary committees.

“However, as international community has hardly shown any interest in supporting the flood victims, the committee decided to urge Imran Khan to appeal to overseas Pakistanis to donate funds for their support,” he said.

Replying to a question, Mr Qaiser further said that the overseas Pakistanis would be asked to transfer funds either to KP government or charity organisations of Imran Khan. The funds would be used to support flood victims in both Punjab and KP, he said.

“We fear that the crops will be ba­­dly affected due to floods, and next year there will be enormous pressure on the rupee as government will have to import food items including wheat and rice,” he warned. He said that the committee had decided to boycott the parliamentary sessions on a daily basis.

To another question, the PTI leader explaining the decision said that members of parliament would attend the sessions of the Senate and National Assembly and then walk out in protest.

He added that the country lacked the democracy, which was leading to continuous problems and growing security issues.

Rain hits Gandapur meeting

Meanwhile, PTI had arranged a meeting of media persons with KP Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur at KP House in Islamabad but heavy rain disrupted the event.

Strong winds dislodged the canopy set up in the lawn, forcing organisers to cancel the meeting. Media persons were later informed that the session could not be held.

Published in Dawn, September 2nd, 2025

INTENSE rainfall is not uncommon in our plains and mountains. Rainfall exceeding 200mm has occurred several times in every province of Pakistan. ‘Climate change’, ‘cloudburst’ and ‘urban flooding’ are only recent additions to our media lexicon. Flood disasters, landslides, furious hill torrent flows and terrible droughts have been causing loss of life and damage to property, crops and infrastructure for decades. However, a hysterical media and a clumsy social media have sparked paranoia. The cacophony they have raised has kept us from discussing the underlying causes of these disasters. Regurgitating climate change and cloudburst rhetoric will not prevent catastrophic events.

Three human-induced factors, in particular, have made the hydro-climatic events more intense. Rampant deforestation that has denuded mountains of their green cover, increased obstructions on waterways that impede natural flows and climate-insensitive infrastructure are the root cause of the havoc. August’s second half proved calamitous for the provinces and Gilgit-Baltistan. In one week, the number of casualties dwarfed the total toll of the previous five weeks.

The disaster in these areas did not result from a few abnormal downpours or landslides. Havoc was being nurtured in the belly of the mountains for decades. Malakand, famous for its dense forests, is now infamous for its menacing pace of illegal deforestation. The Swat valley has several areas where deforestation takes place. The massive logging in Bahrain, Madyan, Kalam, Matta, Malam Jabba, Gabin Jabba and other areas is no secret. The woodlots policy has been blatantly abused in these areas. A news report last year revealed that up to 15 to 20 timber-loaded trucks were being transported to Punjab every day. Forests are a natural glue that protect mountains from fragmentation and abrasion. As forest cover thins out, the mountains are exposed to gushing flows. When natural barriers are removed, these flows attain a ferocious velocity that erodes big boulders and rocks.

Boulders roll down these denuded hills into roaring streams that rise from high altitudes and plummet sharply to thousands of metres. Buner, which endured terrible devastation, inclines upwards from 360 metres in the south to reach a maximum height of 2,910m at the Dosara Peak in the north. Given such drastic variations in altitude, a bout of intense rainfall can generate torrents of unimaginable potency. Forests in Swat were ruthlessly devoured during 2007 to 2009 when the Taliban seized the territory.

The disaster was not caused by a few abnormal showers.

Kashmir tells a similar story. A news report last month mentioned that floods in the Neelum Valley brought a huge bounty of illegally cut timber to Nauseri Dam near Muzaffarabad. Clandestine deforestation in the area intensified the floods. Research based on variations in forest cover maps in 2023 concluded that GB lost over 1,700 square kilometres of forest cover in two decades. It disclosed that Chilas subdivision witnessed the highest rate of deforestation between 2000 and 2010 when over 8,600 acres of forest vanished from the map. Darel/Tangir and Astore ranked second and third in this race to the bottom. These areas felt the impact of the recent devastation.

The upper Indus Basin is dotted with more than 3,000 glacial lakes that burst due to heavy rains and generated lethal flows. GB’s population has nearly doubled since 1998. New settlements have been created. Careless tourism has further tested the fragility of the ecosystem. The burgeoning population, especially the poor, tend to occupy empty land in

the mountains, the river plains, forests and deserts everywhere in the country, as witnes­sed in the floodplains of Punjab and Sindh, where large numbers of people were displaced from katcha areas due to the devastating floods in the last week of August. As admitted by Defence Minister Khawaja Asif, Sialkot was submerged due to encroachments hindering the waterways. The dry beds of the Sutlej, Ravi and Chenab rivers were massively encroached upon and hence witnessed damage and displacement when the floods roared in after four decades.

Encroachments have clogged the waterways in the urban and rural areas. Infrastructure has been developed without giving any thought to the impact of the raging climatic events. From the mountain peaks to the coastline, a comprehensive climate audit and a grand overhaul of the ecosystem has become a necessity.

Recurring disasters in the mountains of Swat and GB and the floodplains of southern Punjab and Sindh need to be scrutinised from a different angle. Putting toge­ther the pieces of the jigsaw puzzle, a sad picture reveals itself: disasters are trigge­red more by frequent and sustained bursts of misgovernance than cloudbursts.

The writer is a civil society professional.

nmemon2004@yahoo.com

Published in Dawn, September 2nd, 2025

ISLAMABAD: Despite strong reservations from the ministries of finance and power, the government has approved a dollar-based guaranteed return on the transportation of petroleum products through the 477-kilometre Machike-Thallian-Tarujabba White Oil Pipeline, estimated to cost $300 million.

The project will be executed on a government-to-government basis by a joint venture comprising Azerbaijan’s state-owned oil company SOCAR, Pakistan State Oil (PSO), and the Frontier Works Organisation (FWO). Positioned as a strategic investment from Azerbaijan, the project had long been advocated by the FWO using local resources.

At a recent meeting, the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the Cabinet approved the terms and conditions proposed by the Petroleum Division to launch the project, citing its potential to enhance bilateral ties with Azerbaijan and attract future investment.

However, official documents reviewed by Dawn reveal that Power Minister Sardar Awais Leghari cautioned against offering guaranteed dollar returns. He noted that lessons should have been learned from the experience with Independent Power Producers (IPPs). He urged a detailed assessment of costs and internal rate of return (IRR) before proceeding.

ECC clears $300m oil pipeline project with Azerbaijan amid ministries’ concerns

SOCAR had conditioned its investment on a “ship-or-pay” model — similar to the “take-or-pay” model used in IPP agreements — requiring full payment for the pipeline’s annual capacity of 7-8 million tonnes, regardless of actual throughput.

The Ministry of Finance also raised objections, warning that dollar-based returns should be linked strictly to foreign investment. It stressed that such returns should not apply if local financing is used. The ministry also recommended extending the payback period from four to seven years to mitigate the early-stage tariff impacts and called for more realistic assumptions regarding interest rates and the weighted average cost of capital (WACC).

Despite these concerns, the Petroleum Division argued that the proposed changes would render the project unattractive to investors. The ECC, siding with the Petroleum Division, overruled both ministries’ objections, terming the pipeline a strategic opportunity that could unlock further foreign investment.

The FWO had initially proposed a 14.6pc IRR and a 25pc equity IRR. The Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) noted that the project’s final cost would depend on the adopted financing and operational model. The ECC partially addressed concerns by deciding that dollarised returns would apply only if foreign investment is involved.

Currently, about 70pc of petroleum products in Pakistan are transported by road, 28pc through an existing pipeline from Karachi to Machike, and only 2pc by rail. The new pipeline aims to shift a greater share of oil transport to pipeline infrastructure, reducing costs and inefficiencies.

As part of the approved framework, Ogra will allow transportation tariffs to be denominated in US dollars and will declare the pipeline as the default mode of oil transport.

Oil Marketing Companies will be required to commit to minimum annual pipeline volumes. Any shortfall will be adjusted through their existing Inland Freight Equalisation Margin (IFEM). If collective commitments fall below the threshold, the shortfall will be covered through the national IFEM mechanism.

The FWO has already submitted a revised tariff petition for the Machike–Thallian section, which Ogra has accepted. A separate petition for the Thallian–Tarujabba section is under review. Although Ogra has determined a provisional dollar-based tariff, the details remain confidential.

Published in Dawn, September 2nd, 2025

WE may be among the most crisis-prone nations globally. In this writer’s view, we have faced nearly 30 crises since 1990 or one every 14 months on average. This includes political crises when the ruling set-up or its head were removed in contentious circumstances (seven); economic crunches that led us to the IMF (eight); natural and health-related calamities like earthquakes, floods and Covid-19 (four); internal or external security challenges (five) and crises due to street unrest (five).

This sorry status arises from the state’s predatory, security and autocratic bent. The economic crises arise as our predatory rulers induce fickle growth via high twin deficits. The external security crises reflect the hold of hawks on both sides of our eastern border. The internal challenges come from the gripes of excluded ethnicities or our tolerance in the past of violent groups to gain a regional security edge. The political crises and street unrests relate mainly to establishment feuds with politicians. Natural crises cause excessive harm as our rulers eschew disaster management. Economic progress requires peace and economic stability, which need political stability, which, in turn, requires political legitimacy. So, a prolonged loss of political legitimacy lies at the root of all our crises.

The longest crisis-free phase after 1990 was 2001-2005 when a military-led set-up induced questionable stability via fickle US aid and repression. But it only delayed and magnified the inevitable crises that erupted during our first polycrisis from 2005-08. We witnessed the 2005 earthquake, the start of Baloch and TTP violence, Benazir Bhutto’s death and street unrest, and the 2007-08 economic crisis the set-up caused. They led to its fall despite its macho aura of invincibility and debatable claims of progress.

Flawed policies are fomenting future trouble.

The Baloch and TTP-linked crises have raged on since then. The frequency of crises has gone up. The PPP inherited the 2007-08 economic crisis that was boosted by the 2008 global recession. It witnessed the mega floods of 2010 and the removal of its prime minister in 2012. Its government caused an economic crisis in 2013. The PML-N inherited the economic crisis, faced the PTI dharna in 2014, lost its prime minister in 2017 to court decisions, and caused an economic crisis itself in 2018. The PTI inherited the problems, faced Covid-19 in 2020, caused an economic crisis in 2021 and saw its prime minister removed through a no-trust vote in 2022. This started our second polycrisis with floods in 2022, mismanaged economic crisis, PTI protests till 2024, spikes in militant violence and war with India in 2025.

Given the internal boost from the war, resurgent ties with the US and (fickle) economic stability, this hybrid set-up is claiming stability and invincibility. But Pakistan is the humbling ground of many a haughty regime that exuded sham invincibility. In trying to escape the strong pull of the root causes of crises, it faces the same insoluble puzzle as past set-ups — achieving elusive stability. Repression may only delay the inevitable and cause a bigger polycrisis.

Flawed policies are already fomenting future trouble. The failure to fix our perennial external deficits may cause an economic crisis as growth picks up. Given the government’s inability to fix the deeper causes of insecurity, our three external and local security foes may jointly try to inflict more violence. If civilians are supposed to forego democratic freedoms in order to fortify the ‘same page’, it may, instead, lead to cracks and divisions in the regime, ie, establishment-civilian, the PPP-PML-N, intra-PML-N, and cause a political crisis. Gre­ater autocracy may spark national ang­er against oppr­es­sive policies, which may ignite Arab Spring-type prote­sts. Natural crises remain a wildcard given the neglect of disaster control.

So, despite the rulers’ incumbency plans, based on dubious assumptions of durable stability, we may be an external shock away from an economic crisis, a terrorist attack away from war, a spark away from street unrest, a civilian refusal away from a political crisis and a big monsoon season away from a natural crisis. Such events may quickly negate the desperate attempts to exude an aura of invincibility that set-ups with low legitimacy need badly and that cause their fall.

A crisis-weary nation can see an end to the recurrent crises only through political legitimacy based on fair polls and civilian sway. Otherwise, with external, economic, demographic, security and natural threats set to increase in the coming decades, we may become even more crisis-prone.

The writer has a PhD from the University of California, Berkeley, in political economy and 25 years of grassroots to senior-level experiences across 50 countries.

murtazaniaz@yahoo.com

X: @NiazMurtaza2

Published in Dawn, September 2nd, 2025

ISLAMABAD:

The newly constituted bench formed to hear the case regarding incarcerated Pakistani neurosci-entist Dr Aafia Siddiqui’s health and repatriation has been dissolved.

Justice Inaam Ameen Minhas of the Islamabad High Court (IHC) on Monday forwarded the file to the IHC chief justice, Sardar Muhammad Sarfraz Dogar, for the for-mation of a larger bench.

This case had earlier been transferred from the court of Justice Sardar Ejaz Ishaq Khan, who had issued contempt notices to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and his cabinet members for disregarding its order to provide reasons for not assisting a US court hearing the case of Dr Aafia.

On Monday, Justice Minhas heard arguments regarding Dr Aafia’s health and return from a US prison while hear-ing the petition filed by Dr Aafia’s sister, Dr Fowzia Sid-diqui,

Counsel for the petitioner, Advocate Imran Shafiq, told the court that the matter had become quite complicated. The judge stated that it was not the case and that his ruling was clear regarding the chief justice being the master of the roster.

“Justice Munib [Akhter] also held [that the CJ is the mas-ter of the roster], and I have given the same ruling. How-ever, since another [judge’s] opinion differs, I am referring this issue to a larger bench. The larger bench will decide who the master of the roster is.”

Earlier, this case was heard by Justice Sardar Ejaz Ishaq Khan, who, on July 21, initiated contempt proceedings against PM Shehbaz and his entire cabinet. “The replies of all the ministers, including the prime minister, shall be filed within two weeks from today,” said the order authored by Justice Khan.

The judge noted that in his last order he had given the government time to revert with its decision, while cau-tioning the state law officer that inaction would result in contempt proceedings.

The federal government on July 15 approached the Su-preme Court, seeking to overturn the May 16, 2025, or-der of the IHC that allowed amendments to a previously settled petition concerning Dr Aafia—nearly a decade af-ter its filing.

Justice Ejaz Ishaq Khan was to go on summer vacation from July 21. However, he had announced at the last hearing that he would hear the case on July 21. Interest-ingly, the IHC did not list the case for hearing before his bench.

The judge, nevertheless, heard the case and later issued a blistering order. He also criticized IHC Chief Justice Dogar and the entire “demolition squad catapulted into” the IHC after the 26th amendment.

Dr Aafia Siddiqui is a Pakistani neuroscientist and educator who gained international attention following her conviction in the United States.