The cotton crop across key growing zones has been hit hard by recent rains and floods, raising fears that Pakistan may once again fail to achieve its dream of bumper cotton production in the 2025-26 cotton year.
Alongside flood and rain damage, virus attacks have also been reported in parts of Sindh and in Punjab’s cotton belt with underground freshwater reserves. Therefore, the true scale of losses to the cotton crop can only be assessed once the rains and flooding subside.
Cotton Ginners Forum Chairman Ihsanul Haq told The Express Tribune that this year’s cotton season began on a highly encouraging note across all zones of Pakistan, with some areas of Punjab and Sindh witnessing the earliest cotton ginning season in May — the first such occurrence in the country’s history.
Expectations were high that cotton production would rise by 20-25% compared to last year. However, unexpected rainfall, elevated temperatures especially at night, humidity, and virus attacks have hampered crop growth, sparking fears of reduced per-acre yields.
“Punjab’s cotton crop has suffered the most damage, particularly in Bahawalnagar — the province’s largest cotton-producing district — where an estimated 40% of the crop has already been destroyed.”
He said with more rain and floods forecast over the next few days, further losses are expected.
“In areas with underground freshwater, locally known as Kacha lands, excessive cultivation of sugarcane compared to previous years has worsened environmental stress, leaving cotton more vulnerable to virus attacks,” he added.
According to weather forecasts, more rainfall across Punjab and Sindh cotton zones this week, along with flood threats in Rahim Yar Khan and other parts of Sindh, could further harm cotton fields.
Farmers have been advised to keep drainage routes clear so that flood and rainwater does not remain standing in fields for long. Prolonged waterlogging could lead to excessive weed growth and expose crops to armyworm and fungal infections, which may cause greater damage.
He added that due to reduced arrivals of seed cotton, several ginning factories in Punjab and Sindh have gone inactive. Despite limited availability of quality lint, cotton prices have shown a downward trend in recent days, falling from Rs16,500-16,600 per maund to Rs16,200-16,300 per maund, causing concern among both farmers and ginners.
He further noted that reliable national production figures for cotton in the 2025-26 cotton year will only be possible by the first week of October after the full impact of rains and floods becomes clear.
Meanwhile, Federal Commerce Minister Jam Kamal, in a meeting with a large delegation of textile mill owners in Islamabad last week, announced that the government will soon unveil a new five-year textile policy aimed at reducing sectoral challenges and boosting textile exports.
LAHORE, Pakistan — Pakistan’s eastern Punjab province is dealing with the biggest flood in its history, a senior official said Sunday, as water levels of rivers rise to all-time highs.
Global warming has worsened monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change, according to a new study. Downpours and cloudbursts have triggered flash floods and landslides across the mountainous north and northwest in recent months.
Residents in eastern Punjab have also experienced abnormal amounts of rain, as well as cross-border flooding after India released water from swollen rivers and its overflowing dams into Pakistan’s low-lying regions.
“This is the biggest flood in the history of the Punjab. The flood has affected 2 million people. It’s the first time that the three rivers — Sutlej, Chenab and Ravi — have carried such high levels of water,” the senior minister for the province, Maryam Aurangzeb, said at news conference Sunday.
Local authorities were evacuating people and using educational institutions, police and security facilities as rescue camps, she said. Pakistani TV channels showed people clambering into rescue boats and sailing across fully submerged farmland to safety. Others loaded belongings into boats, salvaging what remained from damaged homes, now abandoned.
“The Foreign Ministry is collecting data regarding India’s deliberate release of water into Pakistan,” Aurangzeb said. There was no immediate comment from India.
India had alerted Pakistan to the possibility of cross-border flooding last week, the first public diplomatic contact between the rivals since a crisis brought them close to war in May.
Punjab, home to some 150 million people, is a vital part of the country’s agricultural sector and is Pakistan’s main wheat producer. Ferocious flooding in 2022 wiped out huge swathes of crops in the east and south of the country, leading Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to warn that the country faced food shortages.
Figures from Pakistan’s national weather center show that Punjab received 26.5% more monsoon rain between July 1 and Aug. 27, compared to the same period last year.
‘We cannot fight the water or stop it’
In Multan, authorities installed explosives at five key embankments to divert water away from the city, if needed, ahead of a massive wave on its way from the Chenab River.
Multan Commissioner Amir Kareem Khan said drones were used to monitor low-lying areas while teams tried to persuade residents who had not yet evacuated to do so.
“The water is coming in large quantities — we cannot fight it, we cannot stop it,” Deputy Commissioner Wasim Hamad Sindhu said, appealing on people to seek shelter in government-run camps.
Resident Emaan Fatima went to a camp after water surrounded her home.
“Our animals are starving, and we are also not getting food anywhere else,” she said. “We are not sitting here by choice. Our houses are in danger. We are very worried.”
Pakistan’s disaster management authority said 849 people have been killed and 1,130 injured nationwide in rain-related incidents since June 26.
The chief minister of southern Sindh province, Murad Ali Shah, said he had instructed the Irrigation Department to get ready for a “super flood” at barrages.
“We call it a super flood when the water level exceeds 900,000 cusec (cubic foot per second),” Shah told reporters. “We hope that the water will not reach the 900,000 level, but we still have to be prepared. The most important thing for us is that we save human lives and livestock.”
Pakistan’s monsoon season usually runs to the end of September.
Why do so many devastating earthquakes happen in Afghanistan?published at 02:20 British Summer Time
02:20 BST
Afghanistan is very prone to earthquakes because it is located on top of a number of fault lines where the Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates meet.
In 2022, at least 1,000 people were killed and another 3,000 were injured when a 5.9-magnitude earthquake struck eastern Afghanistan – the deadliest such disaster in the country in two decades.
While that earthquake had been of moderate magnitude, it was so destructive because it was shallow – happening at just 10km (6 miles) under the earth’s surface.
The depth of the quake on Sunday was even shallower, at 8km (5 miles). Hundreds are feared dead or wounded.
Afghanistan’s residents are also particularly vulnerable to earthquakes because the buildings there, built with timber, mud brick, or weak concrete, tend not to be earthquake resistant.
A lot of damage from earthquakes in Afghanistan’s mountains also comes from the landslides they cause, which can flatten houses and block rivers. Landslides also impact roads, which make it difficult for rescue workers and equipment to reach remote locations.
NAROWAL: As many as 1,007 prisoners have been shifted from the Sialkot district jail to different jails in Punjab owing to the flood situation in the area.
Chief Minister Task Force for Prisons Chairman Rana Manan Khan told Dawn that 565 prisoners at the Sialkot district jail were shifted to the Gujranwala district jail, 274 to the Narowal district jail and 168 to the Hafizabad district jail. He said the prisoners shifted to the Gujranwala, Narowal and Hafizabad jails included both men and women. He said the prisoners had been transferred in order to protect them from the prevailing flood situation.
Meanwhile, labourers from adjoining areas, who worked in factories of Sialkot, had been trapped in their homes and were struggling to eat three square meals a day.
As heavy rains and flash floods in Sialkot have caused severe damage to roads coupled with the closure of industries, thousands of labourers from Pasrur, Chawinda, Badiana, Chaprad, Bajwat and hundreds of villages in the area are finding it hard to earn a living.
The collapse of the bridge near Islam Center on Pasrur-Sialkot road had suspended traffic, while the roads connecting Sialkot from Bhagwal Road, Kushnawali Stop, Head Marala Road, Sherpur, Bajwat and Chaprad Sector and other areas had also been washed away in the flood. Public and private transport had been suspended and workers were trapped in their homes for six days.
Workers Muhammad Ashiq and Muhammad Afzal said that they were unable to reach their jobs. They said that it had become difficult to even afford food and the rains and floods had taken away their livelihoods.
Muhammad Imran, a resident of Kushnawali village, said that his mother was seriously ill and the local doctor had referred her to the Allama Iqbal Memorial Teaching Hospital, Sialkot. However, he was unable to shift her to the hospital due to the dilapidated roads. He said that due to poverty, he could not afford her treatment at private hospitals.
Dozens of villages had been cut-off due to the rains and floods and the floodwater was accumulated in people’s houses and animal shelters. The residents of these villages have been waiting for relief from the government. The affectees have demanded that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz take immediate notice of the situation.
• Saving humans and cattle comes first, water infrastructure later, says CM Murad • Visits Guddu and Sukkur barrages, says handling 900,000 to one million cusecs will be extremely challenging
SUKKUR: Sindh Chief Minister Syed Murad Ali Shah on Sunday said the provincial government, with the support of the army, navy and Rangers, was fully prepared to deal with what he described as the looming “super flood” in the Indus river.
Talking to the media during his visit to the Sukkur and Guddu barrages, the CM said that the provincial government’s foremost priority is to protect human lives and livestock, followed by safeguarding the province’s three major barrages.
“We have devised a comprehensive strategy for a super flood [when inflows are recorded at 900,000 cusecs or more]. First, we will save people and cattle, then ensure the safety of Guddu, Sukkur, and Kotri barrages,” he said.
The chief minister explained that water levels in the Ravi was rising and were being closely monitored, as inflows from Trimmu would reach Sindh in about five days via Panjnad. “By tonight, Trimmu may touch its highest point, which will give us a clear estimate of how much water Sindh will receive,” he said.
The CM said mapping had already been completed to identify vulnerable villages. “We know exactly which areas will be affected at different water levels — 500,000 to 700,000 cusecs, 700,000 to 900,000, or even beyond. If inflows cross 900,000 cusecs, over 200,000 people may be impacted,” he warned.
He noted that Sindh’s terrain poses greater risks than Punjab’s. “In Punjab, designated breaches allow water to return quickly to the river. But Sindh lies below river level, so once water spreads, it does not recede easily,” he explained.
On the embankments, he highlighted six sensitive locations on the Right Bank of the Indus. “KK (Kashmore-Kandhkot) Bund is particularly vulnerable, while on the Left Bank, Shank Bund is structurally weak and may not withstand 800,000 to 900,000 cusecs. Still, our top priority is to protect it,” he stressed.
Recalling past floods, the chief minister said the inflows of 1.1 million cusecs had passed from Guddu Barrage in 2010. “This time, even 900,000 to one million cusecs would be extremely challenging. On Aug 24, 550,000 cusecs had already flowed through Guddu, which touched embankments and damaged crops in some areas. If inflows remain limited, losses will be manageable, but crops may still not survive,” he observed.
The CM was briefed by Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) and Minister Makhdoom Mahboobzaman on flood preparedness at Guddu and Sukkur barrages, where water flow may cross 900,000 cusecs.
According to the briefing, 15 districts, 167 UCs and 1,651 villages could be affected in case of a “super flood”, endangering over 1.63 million people (273,148 families).
The chief minister told the media that 948 relief camps have been set up, mobile health units are functional, and the PDMA has established medical camps with essential medicines, including anti-snakebite vaccines.
“Pakistan Navy, Army and Rangers are fully coordinating with us. Around 192 rescue boats are already deployed in katcha areas,” he added.
He assured that cooked food would be provided at relief camps and that houses destroyed in riverine areas would later be rebuilt on higher ground.
The CM said all ministers, MPAs and officials had been deployed on flood emergency duties, while security arrangements were being ensured with the help of the Corps Commander and DG Rangers.
He added that PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari was in constant contact, President Asif Ali Zardari had been issuing directions, and provincial party president Nisar Khuhro had mobilised workers.
He was accompanied by provincial ministers Sharjeel Memon, Nasir Shah and Jam Khan Shoro, while Mukesh Chawla joined him at Guddu and Mohammad Bux Khan Mahar at Qadirpur-Ghotki.
Inspects water flows, embankment conditions
Earlier, the chief minister visited the Guddu and Sukkur barrages to review water flows, embankment conditions, and ongoing rehabilitation projects.
At Guddu Barrage, Minister for Irrigation Jam Khan Shoro and Secretary Irrigation Zareef Khero told the CM that the rehabilitation and modernisation project, launched in 2017, had achieved 72.6 per cent physical and 78.6pc financial progress. The project, being executed by China’s New Era Development Group, is now expected to be completed by March 2026.
The chief minster directed that the project must be finished within the revised timeline without compromising on quality.
During his visit to Sukkur Barrage, the chief minister reviewed the Sindh Barrages Improvement Project (SBIP), funded jointly by the Sindh government and the World Bank.
The CM was told that work on the project was progressing as planned and is scheduled for completion by June 2027.
CM Murad termed the rehabilitation of barrages a “historic milestone” for Sindh’s agriculture and economy, stressing that timely completion would ensure sustainable irrigation, better flood management, and protection of millions of families.
The chief minister also inspected the Kashmore-Kandhkot (KK) Bund to review measures for their protection against the River Indus.
At KK Bund, the secretary irrigation briefed the CM that the river had been attacking the structure since 1995. After the 2010 “super flood”, studs and spurs were installed, with seven new structures completed in 2021 between miles 11 and 18. However, the river is now threatening the downstream side of mile 18. Emergency measures, including stone dumping, stockpiling, and 24/7 monitoring, are in place.
In Qadirpur, Ghotki, CM Murad inspected the Shank Bund, a sensitive structure protecting 5,000 acres of katcha land and the Qadirpur Loop Bund. The bund has remained vulnerable for decades, with a major breach recorded in 2022, when a thunderstorm widened it to 550 feet. Remote sensing maps prepared on the CM’s instructions showed 739 acres out of 4,029 acres were flooded.
ISLAMABAD: The main opposition party, Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI), has announced boycott of the upcoming Senate by-election for the seat that fell vacant due to the disqualification of party senator Ejaz Chaudhry.
The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) has set Sept 9 for polling to fill the vacant Punjab seat.
According to party’s media wing, the announcement has been made by expected candidate Salma Ejaz, wife of Mr Ejaz. She has made it clear that she will not contest the by-election as she does not want to become part of the ‘fraudulent elections’.
PTI Central Secretary Information Sheikh Waqas Akram said that the founding chairman PTI Imran Khan has stated in his message that members of assemblies and senators affiliated with PTI, have been unjustly imprisoned under the false pretext of May 9 cases.
He also said that it will be an insult to them if the party decided to contest the election on seats which have been vacated due to their disqualification.
He said that, after getting the message, party’s political committee also decided that no candidate will be fielded on any seat apart from Mian Azhar’s seat which has been vacated after his death and his son Hammad Azhar will contest the election from there in Lahore.
“This decision gives a clear message that PTI will not accept any unjust or imposed electoral process. The party stands firmly with its workers and leaders and it will continue its struggle under all circumstances,” Mr Waqas said. According to media reports, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz has awarded the ticket to former interior minister Rana Sanaullah Khan for the seat.
• Next 48 hours critical; PDMA warns of ‘exceptionally high flood’ levels at Sutlej, Chenab through Sept 3 • Death toll rises to 33 in Punjab; monsoon claims 850 lives nationwide • UN envoy visits flood-hit Sialkot • Sindh preparing for ‘super flood’, CM Murad fears 200,000 people may be affected • Woman, two daughters killed in roof collapse in South Waziristan
LAHORE: The overflowing Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej rivers have displaced more than two million people across 2,200 villages since Aug 23, while Sindh braces for what officials warn could be a “super flood” as massive inflows from Punjab move downstream.
Rescue and relief operations are underway on an unprecedented scale in Punjab, where the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) has warned that the next 48 hours are critical. In Sindh, Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah has cautioned that inflows of nearly one million cusecs could threaten barrages and inundate vast swathes of land, endangering more than 200,000 people.
The Punjab PDMA has warned that the next two days are critical, as heavy rainfall in India’s Madhya Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh catchment areas is expected to push additional floodwaters into Pakistan.
Officials fear that if India releases an additional 300,000 cusecs into the Sutlej, areas around Lahore and its outskirts could face massive devastation. Already, localities such as Mohlanwal on Multan Road have been inundated, forcing emergency evacuations as water entered residential homes.
Monsoon rains over the past week swelled the three major rivers that cut through Punjab. The flooded rivers have affected mostly rural areas near their banks, but heavy rain also flooded urban areas, including several parts of Lahore. While South Asia’s seasonal monsoon brings rainfall that farmers depend on, climate change is making the phenomenon more erratic, and deadly, across the region.
Landslides and floods triggered by heavier-than-usual monsoon rains have killed more than 850 people nationwide since June.
PDMA Director General Irfan Ali Kathia confirmed that very high to exceptionally high floods are expected to persist in the Sutlej at Ganda Singh Wala, while the Chenab at Trimmu and Panjnad is likely to attain exceptionally high flood levels through Sept 3.
Addressing the media, the PDMA chief said the situation regarding the release of water from Indian dams has been sensitive and all relevant departments remained alert.
He said the Indus Water Commission, the NDMA and all departments remained active and they spoke with the Indian Commission regarding the Sutlej water.
The Indian Commission did not give any official update regarding the release of water from the Salal Dam, he said.
The decision to conduct breaches in the flood dykes was taken to save populated areas, he said, adding that the Sutlej River caused more destruction in Kasur.
He said the Punjab Irrigation Department had managed the flow of Sutlej water. There is an expected flow of 253,000 cusecs there, which will further decrease at the Kasur point and there will be more water at Head Islam and Vehari.
Mr Kathia said that when the water reaches the Panjnad at Ali Pur, there will be a flow of over 900,000 cusecs, and a flow of 1.1 million cusecs is expected to enter Sindh.
Water flow
According to data released by the Flood Forecasting Division (FFD) at 11pm on Sunday, the flow at Marala Headworks on the Chenab River was recorded at 114,550 cusecs (falling trend), while Khanki Headworks was at 154,339 cusecs (steady trend).
The flow at Qadirabad Headworks stood at 154,865 cusecs (steady trend). At the Chiniot Bridge, the flow was 209,457 cusecs (falling trend).
A significant concern was Trimmu Headworks, where the flow was in the “very high flood” category at 479,743 cusecs but was falling.
On the River Ravi, the flow was 479,743 cusecs at Jassar, 69,780 at Shahdara, 179,730 (very high) at Balloki, and 50,158 at Sidhnai.
As for the Sutlej River, the flow at Ganda Singh Wala was in “exceptionally high flood” at 253,068 cusecs. The flow was 134,970 at Sulemanki Headworks and 69,730 cusecs at Islam Headworks.
The key point of observation is the Panjnad Headworks, where the flow was normal at 87,564 cusecs at 11pm but was rising.
Death toll rises to 33
PDMA’s latest Flood Situation Report revealed that 33 people lost their lives and eight others were injured due to high floods in the Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej rivers from Aug 23 to 31.
According to the report, 2,066,785 people of 2,222 mouzas were affected and 506 relief camps were established to provide shelter to 10,654 people in the province. As many as 352 medical camps were established, in which 17,853 people were treated.
The rescue teams evacuated 760,424 people and 516,258 animals and transported them to safe locations. Veterinary services are being provided through 331 camps.
Meanwhile, National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) Chairman Lt Gen Inam Haider Malik said on Sunday that recent rains and flash floods have claimed 850 lives and left more than 1,150 people injured across the country.
Speaking to the media alongside Climate Change Minister Dr Musadik Malik, the NDMA chief said that over 600,000 people were relocated to safer areas during the flooding, and thousands of livestock were also rescued across the country.
He said the final monsoon spell is expected in the first 10 days of September, with heavy rainfall likely in eastern Punjab, Azad Kashmir and nearby regions.
Over 2m displaced
Climate Minister Musadik Malik told the briefing that nearly 2m people have been displaced across the country, mostly in Punjab, due to devastating floods, warning that the brunt of the crisis is falling on the country’s poorest families.
“Our first, second and third priority is around the 800,000 poorest people who do not have wealthy relatives to rely on and are in dire need of aid,” Mr Malik told the media.
He urged the nation to stand with the poor. “If there is any NGO in your area or if you personally can help a displaced family, please do so,” he emphasised.
Mr Malik pointed to Punjab’s geography, where five rivers converge, as a challenge, warning that the Panjnad system could face flows as high as 3m cusecs if conditions worsen.
Earlier, Punjab Senior Minister Marriyum Aurangzeb also confirmed that over 2m people have been affected by floods in Punjab. Of them, nearly 750,000 have been safely evacuated, Ms Aurangzeb said, calling it the “largest evacuation operation in the country’s history”.
UN delegation visits flood-hit Sialkot
Meanwhile, a United Nations delegation led by Resident Coordinator Dr Muhammad Ahmad Yahya visited the flood-affected areas of Sialkot to assess damage and distribute aid.
Accompanied by local officials, including Deputy Commissioner Saba Asghar Ali, Additional Deputy Commissioner General Ayub Bukhari, and Regional Director of Rescue 1122, Syed Kamal Abid, the eight-member delegation embarked on a tour.
They spent two hours visiting the flood-hit areas, including Kot Dasu and Daska, using Rescue 1122 boats. During their visit, they provided rations, ready-to-eat food and drinking water to people impacted by the floodwaters.
“The United Nations stands with the people of Pakistan in this difficult time,” Dr Yahya said.
Sindh braces for ‘super flood’
Meanwhile, Sindh Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah said the provincial government had devised a comprehensive plan to deal with the looming “super flood” — a term used when inflows reach 900,000 cusecs or more.
On Sunday, the chief minister visited the Guddu and Sukkur barrages, where he was briefed by the PDMA and other officials regarding flood preparations and relief measures.
He told the media that inflows from Trimmu would reach Sindh in about five days via Panjnad.
He said that in 2010, inflows of 1.1 million cusecs had passed from the Guddu Barrage. “This time, even 900,000 to one million cusecs would be extremely challenging. If inflows remain limited, losses will be manageable, but crops may still not survive,” he said.
Mr Shah said the provincial government’s foremost priority was to protect human lives and livestock, followed by safeguarding the Guddu, Sukkur and Kotri barrages.
“We know exactly which areas will be affected at different water levels — 500,000 to 700,000 cusecs, 700,000 to 900,000, or even beyond. If inflows cross 900,000 cusecs, over 200,000 people may be impacted,” he warned.
He noted that Sindh’s terrain poses greater risks than Punjab’s. “In Punjab, designated breaches allow water to return quickly to the river. But Sindh lies below river level, so once water spreads, it does not recede easily,” he explained.
Also on Sunday, authorities relocated thousands of people from Sindh’s riverine areas to safer locations.
Woman, two daughters killed in KP
Meanwhile, a woman and her two daughters died after the roof of their house caved in due to heavy rains in the Spin Mazak area of Upper South Waziristan’s Sararogha tehsil late on Saturday night.
According to the district administration officials, the incident occurred when the roof of a room collapsed owing to heavy rains. Locals rushed to the scene and managed to recover bodies from debris before shifting them to Wana Hospital.
Deputy Commissioner Upper South Waziristan Asmat Ullah Wazir expressed grief over the loss of lives and directed officials to provide non-food items and other basic relief to the affected family. He said that compensation and further assistance measures were being arranged.
Only last week, torrential rains and flash floods wreaked havoc across the district, sweeping away three key bridges and destroying three houses completely.
In a separate incident, an 18-year-old girl was swept away by floodwaters and lost her life. The deputy commissioner said the district administration in South Waziristan Upper was making all-out efforts to support the affected families.
Abid Baig in Narowal and A.K. Wazir in Upper South Waziristan also contributed to this report. With input from APP and AFP
With torrents continuing to rise in Punjab’s rivers, Sindh is bracing to cope with a potential super flood of 900,000 cusecs or more, with protection of human lives, livestock, barrages and embankments declared the government’s foremost priority.
“The entire katcha (riverine) belt of Sindh is going to be inundated,” Chief Minister Murad Ali Shah cautioned during visits to dykes and barrages in Sukkur and Larkana divisions on Sunday.
CM Shah, however, expressed hope that the flood level would not cross the 900,000-cusec mark. Yet, recalling the 2010 super flood, he stated that the province had then prepared for 650,000 to 700,000 cusecs at Guddu barrage but the actual flow surged to 1.15 million cusecs. That disaster displaced millions, damaged tens of thousands of houses, crops and businesses, claimed more than 400 lives, wiped out hundreds of thousands of livestock, and inflicted losses worth Rs373 billion.
According to the chief minister, the government’s extensive mapping of riverine populations has projected different scenarios of displacement. Between Guddu and Sukkur barrages alone, some 459,000 people would be affected if a torrent of 900,000 cusecs or more strikes. Earlier, Senior Minister Sharjeel Inam Memon had estimated that 1.65 million people reside in Sindh’s riverine belt.
CM Shah shared that 130,941 people and 21,823 families would be affected between Guddu and Sukkur if water flow remained between 500,000 and 700,000 cusecs. The number would swell by another 104,255 people and 17,376 families if the flow rises to between 700,000 and 900,000 cusecs.
The provincial government has planned to set up 948 relief camps, though Shah estimated that around 514 would practically be established. Two Pakistan Navy teams have already been deployed on both banks of the river while more would be sent if required. CM Shah said the army’s assistance would also be sought if needed.
Uncertain forecasts
Irrigation experts are still unable to estimate the volume of water that will enter Sindh at Guddu. CM Shah said clearer figures would emerge once peak flows from the Chenab and Jhelum rivers reach Trimu in Punjab. From Trimu, the torrent takes over three days to reach Panjnad — the confluence of Punjab’s five rivers — and then about two more days to Guddu.
The chief minister said the deluge is expected to reach Guddu in five to six days, but expressed hope that its intensity would lessen. He pointed out that the flow recorded 855,000 cusecs under Chiniot bridge but had dropped to 435,000 cusecs at Trimu on Sunday afternoon, as water spread into settled areas of Punjab.
Vulnerable embankments
CM Shah disclosed that six vulnerable dykes have been identified between Guddu and Sukkur, with Qadirpur Shaink bund in Ghotki (left bank) and KK bund (right bank) posing the highest concern. On August 24, a flow of 550,000 cusecs passed through Guddu and both embankments held, but the CM admitted it was unclear if they could withstand 900,000 cusecs.
The chief minister explained that Shaink is a protective bund backed by a loop bund, which would prevent water from reaching outside settlements, but warned that people living between the two embankments would still be affected.
He urged residents of riverine villages to evacuate voluntarily and cooperate with authorities, while also appealing to the media to avoid spreading panic.
Monitoring and rehabilitation
Sindh Irrigation Minister Jam Khan Shoro and Secretary Irrigation Zareef Khehro briefed CM Shah that 3,280 staff had been deployed along the left bank embankments and 2,064 along the right bank between Guddu and Sukkur. The Qadirpur Shaink, Qadirpur loop, Raonti, Baiji and RN levees were declared highly sensitive to potential breaches or overflow.
The CM was also informed that rehabilitation of Guddu barrage, initiated in 2017, has been 72 per cent completed, while gate repairs and installation are still in progress. Shah directed that the project must be completed by March 2026 without further delay.
While reiterating his hope that the flood quantum would remain lower than the 2010 deluge, CM Shah stressed that his government was fully mobilised to protect people, infrastructure and agriculture from any eventuality.
Assistant Commissioner Pattoki, Furqan Ahmed Khan, was found dead under mysterious circumstances after being discovered unconscious in the washroom of his official residence.
According to police, the 33-year-old officer had sustained a severe head injury that proved fatal on the spot.
DSP Circle Patoki, Rana Sajjad Akbar, stated that Furqan Ahmed Khan had joined the civil service through CSS and Patoki was his first posting. He had recently assumed charge as Assistant Commissioner. His family members revealed that he was suffering from brain tumour and epilepsy, and used to procure medicines regularly from Islamabad. Police also recovered epilepsy medication from his room.
Sources disclosed that the late officer had been actively supervising relief arrangements for flood victims in recent days and was staying at the Bluoki Rest House. On the night prior to his death, he retired to his room but failed to wake up in the morning. When his gunman, Asad, received no response after repeated knocks, the door was broken open and Furqan was found lying face down in the washroom with blood oozing from his head injury. Rescue 1122 and police were immediately informed.
He was shifted to hospital where doctors declared him dead. Police collected evidence from the scene and summoned a forensic team.
Initial investigation suggests that he sustained the fatal injury after falling in the washroom, but officials said the exact cause of death would be confirmed only after the forensic report.
Belonging to Lakki Marwat, Furqan Ahmed had married about one and a half years ago but had no children. He was residing with his wife at the government residence.
News of his untimely demise spread grief not only in Pattoki but also in his native town Lakki Marwat.
Tremors from a 6.0 magnitude earthquake were felt across several districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab in the early hours of Monday, according to the authorities but no casualties or damage were reported.
According to the state-run PTV which cited the Pakistan Meteorological Department, the earthquake was recorded at 12:18am.
It added that the tremors were felt in Peshawar, Manshera, Abbottabad, Hangu, Malakand, Swat, Chitral, Rawalpindi, and Islamabad.
A Punjab Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) spokesperson said the quake was recorded at a depth of 10 kilometres with its epicentre located southwest of Asadabad, Afghanistan.
Shocks were also felt in India and Tajikistan.
Following the tremors, district administrations across Punjab began inspections of buildings to assess structural safety.
“However, no casualties or damage have been reported so far,” PDMA Director General Irfan Ali Kathia confirmed.
The PDMA stated that its provincial control room and all district emergency operation centers remain on 24/7 alert.
Citizens have been urged to report any earthquake-related losses or emergencies by calling the PDMA helpline at 1129.
Pakistan falls on three major tectonic plates — the Arabian, Euro-Asian and Indian — which create five seismic zones under the country. The intersection of multiple fault lines means that tectonic movements remain a frequent occurrence in the region.
