MUZAFFARABAD: Former Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) Prime Minister and Regional President of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), Sardar Abdul Qayyum Niazi, was arrested by Mirpur police on Sunday for allegedly disturbing public order, sparking protests by party workers in several areas.
Mr Niazi was taken into custody near the shrine of Baba Shadi Shaheed in Bhimber district while returning from Samahni to Bhimber city—constituency of incumbent AJK Prime Minister Chaudhry Anwarul Haq—to lead another rally as part of PTI’s mobilisation campaign for the August 5 protests, called by the party’s incarcerated founder Imran Khan.
Mr Niazi had spent Saturday night in Mirpur but, anticipating his arrest, left his accommodation via a back exit and used someone else’s vehicle to reach Samahni.
There, he led a rally from Pir Galli to Samahni from 2pm to 4pm, urging people to participate in large numbers in the upcoming protest against both the “unlawful arrest” of Mr Khan and India’s abrogation of occupied Jammu and Kashmir’s special status six years ago.
According to Mr Niazi’s press secretary, Habib Ahmed, a large contingent of police led by SSP Mirpur Khurram Iqbal intercepted his entourage and detained him.
Mr Niazi was among several PTI leaders—including former President Dr Arif Alvi—who were booked on November 24 last year at Karachi Company police station in Islamabad under seven sections of the Pakistan Penal Code, two provisions of the Anti-Terrorism Act, and one clause of the Peaceful Assembly and Public Order Ordinance.
His nephew, Advocate Sardar Moteeb, told Dawn that Mr Niazi had secured protective bail from the Islamabad High Court on July 13, which was further extended on July 26 until August 17.
“Despite this, Islamabad police had new arrest warrants issued based on additional charges,” he said.
Eyewitnesses said that apart from AJK policemen, the arresting party included nearly 20 plainclothed officials, reportedly from Islamabad police.
However, DIG Mirpur region Dr Liaqat Ali clarified to Dawn that Mr Niazi was taken into custody on the orders of the Mirpur deputy commissioner under Section 16 of the Maintenance of Public Order (MPO).
“Given his health condition, he has been kept at the Industrial Area rest house in Mirpur, which has been declared a sub-jail by the deputy commissioner,” he added.
The DIG also rejected reports that two PTI activists accompanying Mr Niazi were also arrested.
Soon after news of Mr Niazi’s arrest spread across the region, PTI workers staged protest demonstrations in various areas, blocking roads and burning tyres.
Meanwhile, in a statement issued from the United States, where he is currently on a private visit, PTI regional information secretary and former minister Chaudhry Maqbool Gujjar condemned what he called the “uncalled-for arrest” of Mr Niazi on “frivolous charges,” accusing Prime Minister Haq of betrayal.
“Anwarul Haq owes his return to the AJK Assembly after a decade to PTI’s platform and Imran Khan’s personal campaigning. It’s shameful that the same man is now ordering crackdowns on party workers who are peacefully demanding Khan Sahib’s release,” he said.
The PTI under the auspices of an opposition parties’ alliancethe Tehreek Tahaffuz Ain-e-Pakistan (TTAP)is going to launch its much touted protest movement against the “illegal” detention of PTI founder Imran Khan from tomorrow — Tuesday.
According to the protest plan, August 5 — the day when Imran Khan was arrested from Lahore two years back in a corruption case — will be observed as a Black Day across the country.
“On August 5 (tomorrow), a nationwide protest will be held under the flags of Pakistan, the PTI, and the white flag of peace,” announced TTAP Secretary General Asad Qaiser in an emergency press conference held on Sunday at the PTI District Secretariat in Swabi.
He said August 5 marks the completion of two years since Imran Khan’s “illegal” arrest and the opposition will hold peaceful protests throughout Pakistan.
Qaiser emphasized that the movement would remain entirely within the constitutional and legal framework and would be conducted in a peaceful manner. He said if there is any evidence against Imran Khan then it should be presented in an open court on merit so the nation can learn the truth.
He claimed the judiciary is no longer independent, and that court decisions are now influenced by the executive. “Imran Khan is the most popular and dignified leader of this nation, who not only elevated Pakistan’s image internationally but also gave the nation a vision,” he added.
“His legal and constitutional rights are being violated, which is a direct attack on democracy, the Constitution, and the rule of law.”
PTI’s Shahram Khan Tarakai, who also spoke at the press conference, said on August 5, provincial organizations and elected assembly members will stage protests in various cities, adding that both the TTAP and the PTI are fully prepared.
He stressed that the movement is not a temporary reaction but a sustained democratic struggle that will continue until its objectives are achieved. “Our movement is peaceful and we will once again prove that Imran Khan’s supporters are law-abiding citizens who respect the Constitution.”
He further stated that their struggle is for the supremacy of the Constitution, protection of fundamental human rights, and judicial independence. “Every individual must raise their own voice for their rights — only then will they be heard.”
Asad Qaiser, who served as the National Assembly speaker during the PTI’s rule, demanded that judges ensure justice by delivering verdicts on merit in open courts with media presence.
He called for the formation of a judicial commission to investigate the events of May 9 thoroughly, and for those found responsible to be punished in accordance with the law.
He also questioned the weakening state of parliament, noting that now a government official deletes words from members’ speeches, “which reflects the degradation of the speaker’s role”.
Qaiser said the party would soon decide whether or not to remain part of the current parliamentary system. He demanded transparent judicial proceedings in all pending cases in the Islamabad High Court concerning Imran, his wife Bushra Bibi, and other party leaders, with full protection of their legal and constitutional rights.
Speaking at a rally in Buner as part of the protest movement, PTI Chairman Gohar Ali Khan said political tensions escalated nationwide after the events of May 9 and have yet to subside.
“Our members have been subjected to legal cases, punishments, and disqualifications. PTI’s MPAs, MNAs, and Senators are being declared ineligible, which is only adding fuel to the fire,” he added.
He said the demand for the release of Imran is the voice of 70% of the people, the voice of 170 million citizens. “This voice cannot be suppressed any longer because the voice of the people is the voice of democracy,” he said.
The PTI has finalized its plan of action for the August 5 protest, according to the instruction of Imran Khan.
Instead of marching toward Islamabad or holding a central rally, it has been decided that protests will be held in every district. In Peshawar, a rally will be taken out from Hayatabad Toll Plaza to Qila Bala Hisar, which will continue into the night.
In Peshawar and Khyber districts, a rally will begin at 3:30pm from Hayatabad Toll Plaza on Ring Road and proceed to Qila Bala Hisar, led by Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur.
In Swabi, participants will gather at the Ambar Interchange, and a one-day protest will be held. The protest will start at 3:30 pm and continue until Isha prayers.
In Nowshera, party workers will gather at Khairabad, Nowshera and also hold a one-day protest, beginning at 3:30pm and continuing until Isha prayers.
All members of the National Assembly and the K-P Assembly and ticket holders have been instructed to record videos of their gatherings from their Hujras, Deras, or starting points and submit these to their respective district organizations, which will then forward them to the regional leadership.
Recent analysis of the May 7th air engagement, notably a detailed report by Reuters, has prompted considerable discussion surrounding the efficacy of Chinese weapon systems, like the J-10CE and PL-15E air-to-air missile (AAM), and Pakistan’s strong execution in the air on 07 May 2025.
These reports examine the tactical variables that led to the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) inflicting notable losses on the Indian Air Force’s Rafale fleet, highlighting the performance of the J-10CE fighter and its associated long-range munitions.
The outcome challenges long-held assumptions about the dominance of Western platforms, suggesting a potential shift in the calculus of air power where intelligently integrated systems from non-Western suppliers demonstrate the capacity to contest the airspace.
While a technical and tactical examination of the engagement is crucial, a complete understanding of the outcome requires a deeper, historical perspective.
The proficiency demonstrated by the PAF – i.e., its capacity for rapid adaptation, tactical innovation, and effective battle management – is not a recent phenomenon. It is, instead, the product of a decades-long process of institutional and doctrinal evolution.
The factors that enabled PAF pilots to effectively leverage their platforms in 2025 have their origins in foundational decisions made over 70 years ago, creating a unique strategic culture.
In the latest episode of the Defence Uncut podcast, we delve into this critical backstory.
We are joined by historians Usman Shabbir and Yawar Mazhar, authors of Eagles of Destiny, to analyze the formative years of the PAF. Their insights illuminate how a specific warfighting philosophy was institutionalized, shaping the culture of training, planning, and tactical execution that persists today and provides the essential context for understanding the headlines.
You can buy the book(s) from Helion (if you are located outside of Pakistan) or Readings (for readers residing in Pakistan). Note: If you are purchasing the book from within Pakistan, you will get both Volume I and Volume II in one copy rather than two separate books.
Listen to the full episode on YouTube or your favorite podcast platform.
This Week’s Defence News Briefing: New Procurements and Capabilities
Before our main discussion, the Defence Uncut team provides a briefing on recent developments in Pakistan’s defense landscape.
Pakistan Army Inducts Z-10ME Attack Helicopter
The Pakistan Army Aviation Corps has officially begun inducting the Chinese Z-10ME, concluding a protracted and complex search for a modern attack helicopter.
This journey, which previously involved considerations for the American AH-1Z Viper and the Turkish T129 ATAK , has culminated in the acquisition of a platform that appears purpose-built for Pakistan’s high-threat environment. As discussed in the podcast, the Z-10ME is not merely a replacement for aging Cobras but a significant strategic asset.
It features a sophisticated suite of electronic warfare (EW) and defensive systems, a millimeter-wave (MMW) radar, and a varied weapons arsenal that includes air-to-air missiles, loitering munitions, and non-line-of-sight (NLOS) missiles like the CM-501, which provides a standoff range of over 25 km.
This standoff capability is critical, reflecting lessons from recent global conflicts about the vulnerability of helicopters in contested airspace. The induction represents a steep learning curve for the Army, which must now develop new doctrines to leverage these advanced systems effectively.
The procurement also serves to offset India’s significant investment in its own attack helicopter fleet, which includes the Apache and the indigenous Prachand, ensuring Pakistan can maintain a credible deterrent on its eastern front.
Pakistan Navy Launches New Patrol Craft
We also briefly cover the Pakistan Navy’s launch of the first of a new series of 20 locally built 38-meter gunboats, in collaboration with Swiftships. These vessels are intended for maritime security operations, acting as a middle layer between the coast guard and high-end naval assets.
The noteworthy inclusion of an Electronic Support Measures (ESM) suite suggests a secondary intelligence-gathering role, enhancing the Navy’s electronic surveillance capabilities in Pakistan’s littoral waters.
The Doctrinal Framework: From the F-86F to the J-10CE
The core of our conversation explores the thesis that the PAF’s contemporary performance is intrinsically linked to its formative period. The journey from a nascent post-colonial force to a modern, professional air arm was neither accidental nor inevitable; it was the result of deliberate, strategic choices.
Our guests identify several key aspects of this transformation:
A Nascent Force: The Post-Independence Challenge
The core of our discussion focused on the profound limitations of legacy data-links in the face of future oAt its inception in 1947, the Royal Pakistan Air Force (RPAF) lacked nearly everything required for an independent air arm, most critically, experienced leadership. As our guests note, there was not a single Pakistani officer who had completed a staff course at the time of independence.
The most senior Pakistani officer had less than a decade of total experience. The RPAF was, by necessity, led by seconded British officers who, while professional, were not tasked with the visionary nation-building required. This initial state of dependency underscores the magnitude of the transformation that was to come.
The American Inflection Point: More Than Just Hardware
The US Mutual Defense Assistance Program in the 1950s was the pivotal inflection point. While the program provided advanced hardware like the F-86 Sabre, its most profound impact was doctrinal.
The PAF leadership, most notably Air Marshal Asghar Khan, recognized that the Americans were offering not just equipment, but an entirely new and systematic “way of doing things.” The PAF seized this opportunity, choosing to absorb and adapt the USAF’s operational philosophy.
This was a conscious and radical break from the inherited British model. Asghar Khan’s vision was evident in symbolic yet powerful decisions, such as moving the Air Headquarters to Peshawar, away from the Army’s center of gravity in Rawalpindi, specifically to cultivate a distinct identity and culture for the Air Force.
Building the Institution Brick-by-Brick
This transformation manifested in several concrete ways discussed in the podcast. The PAF moved from the British model of squadron-level maintenance to a centralized, depot-level system favored by the Americans, vastly improving efficiency and standardization.
The entire organizational structure was reformed, shifting from the RAF’s “Group” system to a centralized branch structure for operations, maintenance, and administration. This change was critical for knowledge management, allowing best practices and lessons learned to be consolidated and disseminated across the entire force, rather than remaining siloed within individual squadrons.
Perhaps most telling was the evolution of a professional flight safety culture. The podcast recounts how Air Marshal Nur Khan, known as a risk-taker in his youth, later became a rigid enforcer of safety standards, once dismissing a squadron commander on the spot for performing a low-level barrel roll.
This anecdote illustrates a deep, top-down cultural shift from bravado to disciplined professionalism. The meticulous, multi-faceted process of institutional development, established over decades, created the framework that enables the PAF to master and effectively employ complex modern systems today.
Contemporary Implications: From Historical Doctrine to Modern Strategy
This historical context is directly relevant to understanding the May 2025 air battle. The institutional DNA of the PAF – its emphasis on rigorous training, analytical planning, and doctrinal flexibility – is what allows it to maximize the potential of its assets. The J-10CE is a capable platform, but its effective use in a complex, large-force engagement is a testament to the quality of the institution that operates it.
The PAF’s strategy of focusing on inflicting a high attrition rate on the IAF finds a direct parallel in the 1971 war. As our guests discuss, the PAF’s air strategy then was also designed to provoke the IAF into attacking well-defended Pakistani airbases, where PAF fighters could engage them at an advantage and impose unsustainable losses.
This approach, prioritizing the degradation of the enemy’s air power to achieve a strategic effect, appears to be an enduring feature of PAF doctrine, successfully reprised in 2025.
Looking forward, the engagement has highlighted the growing challenge of standoff weapons. India’s reliance on systems like the BrahMos and SCALP cruise missiles necessitates a robust Pakistani response.
This involves not only layered air defenses, potentially including systems like the CAMM-ER, but also a credible offensive deterrent. As discussed in the podcast, Pakistan must invest in its own standoff capabilities, such as the CM-302 supersonic-cruising missile, and have them available in sufficient numbers to ensure that any aggression can be met with a potent and proportional response, thereby maintaining strategic stability.
Listen to the Full Discussion
For a comprehensive discussion on these historical underpinnings and their contemporary implications, the latest episode of Defence Uncut offers an in-depth analysis from leading historians on the subject. The conversation connects the strategic choices of the past to the tactical outcomes of the present, providing essential context for understanding modern air power in the region.
If you would like to read more about what was discussed in this episode, check out the links below:
If you have any questions, comments, or news topic suggestions you would like to hear us discuss, then send us an email at podcast@quwa.org.
ISLAMABAD – The Islamabad High Court (IHC) will Monday (today) resume hearing in a petition filed against closure of a road due to Baloch protestors in the federal capital.
In this matter, the bench had already issued directions to the Deputy Inspector General (DIG) of Police (Operations) and Deputy Commissioner Islamabad to appear before the court in person. A single bench of IHC comprising Chief Justice of IHC Justice Sardar Sarfraz Dogar will conduct hearing of the petition filed by an owner of a petrol pump at F-6 who is aggrieved that due to continuing protest by Baloch in front of press club. He adopted the stance that protests be managed that roads be opened so that business may not suffer. Previously, the counsel for the petitioner contended that the petitioner runs a fuel station near National Press Club (NPC), located in Sector F-6/1, Islamabad and due to ongoing and indefinite protests in the area, several roads have been closed that have severely impacted the fuel station’s operations.
He added that the employees, suppliers, and even emergency vehicles are unable to access the premises. As a result, the counsel said that the petitioner’s business has become unsustainable and the indefinite access restrictions violate the petitioner’s fundamental right of doing business protected by the Constitution of Pakistan, 1973. He added that while peaceful protest is a constitutional right under Article 16 of the Constitution, but, it cannot be exercised in a way that completely blocks public movement and effects uninvolved citizens and businesses.
He also argued that it is the duty of the administration to regulate protests and ensure that traffic flows freely and access to both public and private properties is maintained and prolonged and unregulated blockades reflects a failure of this responsibility. After hearing the arguments, the IHC Chief Justice directed Deputy Inspector General of Police (Operations) Islamabad and Deputy Commissioner Islamabad to appear in person and assist this Court as to what steps have been taken so far to address the matter. Later, the bench deferred hearing of the case till August 4 (Monday) for further proceedings.
BAJAUR: Another round of negotiations between the members of Bajaur Amn Jirga and leaders of banned Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan took place on Sunday, wherein both sides agreed to a ceasefire until the conflict was completely resolved through talks.
Sahibzada Haroon Rashid, the head of the 50-member Bajaur Amn Jirga, didn’t say anything about the details of the third round of talks with TTP leaders that concluded after Maghrib prayers. However, two members of the jirga told Dawn on Sunday that the third round of talks was held in Lowi Mamund tehsil, following conditional agreement of TTP leaders to vacate civilian areas during Saturday’s meeting, which was one of the two key demands of Bajaur Amn Jirga.
Sources said that the Sunday’s talks between both sides, aimed at convincing terrorists to either return to Afghanistan or retreat to mountains if they wanted to fight against security forces, were held after high-ups met with jirga members late on Saturday night to discuss the latest developments.
“Officials expressed satisfaction over the outcome of Saturday’s talks between both sides in a meeting with Bajaur Amn Jirga leaders headed by Sahibzada Haroon Rashid and decided to give negotiations another chance to resolve the conflict peacefully, leading to third round of talks,” they said.
Third round of talks between local elders and terrorists continues for several hours
On Saturday night, Sahibzada Haroon Rashid in his Facebook post also stated that the third round of talks between them and terrorists would be held on Sunday to resolve the issue through dialogue.
Sahibzada Haroon Rashid, the sole authorised person to inform local media about the outcome of the meeting, did not share details of talks with journalists till filing of this report as he and some other members of the jirga were busy in a meeting with senior officials to brief them on new developments.
However, in a social media post shared just before meeting with officials, he said: “I’m satisfied with today’s meeting, which lasted for seven hours.”
Meanwhile, the residents of Thangi area of Salarzai tehsil on Sunday urged authorities not to abandon a security post in their locality, fearing that the move would put their lives in peril.
Addressing a jirga held at Toot Shah Chowk, local elders said that authorities had planned to abandon the security post, established several years ago in the area.
The participants of the jirga demanded of relevant authorities to reconsider the plan.
ISLAMIC LAW: Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-Fazl local leaders on Sunday vowed to continue their peaceful struggle for enforcement of Islamic law in the country and for peace and socioeconomic development of the district.
They made the pledge while addressing an event to mark the second anniversary of the July 30, 2023, bombing at a party’s gathering near Khar that left 64 people dead and 122 others wounded, mostly JUI-F workers, according to a statement.
The gathering, meant to pay homage to the martyrs, was held at Madressah Jamia Rashidia in Saroo Wanoo area of Salarzai.
JUI-F local chapter head Maulana Abdur Rashid and other senior party leaders including Maulana Kareemullah, Maulana Fataullah, Mufti Mohammad Naeem, and Maulana Mohammad Imran were among the key speakers at the event.
“Despite the deadly bombing of the party’s rally on July 30, 2023, JUI-F is still standing firm on its narrative and position,” the statement quoted Maulana Rashid as saying.
He said that JUI-F would continue the martyrs’ mission and play an active role in promoting peace and people’s prosperity.
The speakers also expressed great concerns over poor law and order in the district, particularly the launch of a military operation in several areas of Lowi Mamund tehsil.
Describing the military operations as no solution to the issue of terrorism, they called for negotiated settlement of the matter.
The speakers urged all political figures, social and political activists, elders, religious leaders and locals to play their part in promoting peace and stability in the district.
The ceremony concluded with a joint prayer for the departed souls of the martyrs.
Just after midnight on May 7, the screen in the Pakistan Air Force’s operations room lit up in red with the positions of dozens of active enemy planes across the border in India.
Air Chief Marhall Zaheer Sidhu had been sleeping on a mattress just off that room for days in anticipation of an Indian assault.
New Delhi had blamed Islamabad for backing militants who carried out an attack the previous month in Indian Kashmir, which killed 26 civilians. Despite Islamabad denying any involvement, India had vowed a response, which came in the early hours of May 7 with airstrikes on Pakistan.
Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Authority relief consignment to Gaza and Lebanon in Karachi, Pakistan, on October 29, 2024. —PID
ISLAMABAD: Deputy Prime Minister/Foreign Minister Senator Muhammad Ishaq Dar Sunday oversaw the dispatch of Pakistan’s 17th consignment of humanitarian aid to Gaza, consisting of 100 tons of vital supplies, including food, ready-to-eat meals, powdered milk and medical equipment.
According to the Foreign Office spokesperson, this relief effort is part of Pakistan’s ongoing commitment to supporting the Palestinian people, who continue to endure extreme suffering amid an ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
Since October 2023, Pakistan has sent multiple consignments of humanitarian aid to Gaza, totalling 1,615 tons of relief goods. This ongoing effort aims to alleviate the suffering of civilians, particularly women and children, affected by the brutal conflict.
The timely delivery of this consignment has been made possible due to the dedicated efforts of Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), which has coordinated the swift dispatch of aid to Gaza, ensuring that vital relief reaches those in need without delay. The NDMA’s seamless collaboration with relevant international partners has been instrumental in making this operation a success.
In his statement, the deputy prime minister emphasized that Pakistan remains steadfast in its support for Palestine during these trying times. He reiterated Pakistan’s call for an immediate and unconditional ceasefire in Gaza, the protection of civilians, and unhindered access for humanitarian assistance.
Additionally, he called for renewed international support for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), which is essential for the survival of millions of Palestinian refugees.
He added that Pakistan also continues to advocate for the restoration of a political process leading to a just and lasting two-state solution based on pre-1967 borders in accordance with international law and relevant UNSC resolutions. Pakistan has actively participated in various international forums, including the UN Security Council, Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), and International Court of Justice (ICJ), to ensure accountability for Israel’s actions.
The humanitarian assistance provided by Pakistan reflects the country’s unwavering commitment to the Palestinian cause and its determination to help bring peace, dignity, and justice to the Palestinian people. Pakistan will continue to provide relief and advocate for a just resolution to the ongoing crisis, the spokesperson concluded.
US President Donald Trump speaks after signing the VA Home Loan Program Reform Act at the White House in Washington, DC, US, July 30, 2025. — Reuters
On Wednesday, July 30, 2025, Donald Trump took to Truth Social to declare that the US and Pakistan had “concluded a deal … we will work together on developing their massive oil reserves”, adding that the US was “choosing the oil company” for the project.
On the same day, he issued a blunt threat to India, announcing a 25 per cent tariff on Indian imports beginning August 1, along with an unspecified “penalty” tied to New Delhi’s defence and energy purchases from Russia. Though he referred to India as “our friend”, he harshly criticised its high average tariff levels and burdensome non-monetary trade barriers, accusing it of being “Russia’s largest buyer of ENERGY … at a time when everyone wants Russia to STOP THE KILLING IN UKRAINE”.
A Bloomberg columnist says that India’s refusal to fall in line irritated Trump, who emphasised that, while “he received fulsome praise from Pakistan’s leaders after he announced a ceasefire; the Indians pointedly ignored him”.
Combined, these messages signal a coordinated diplomatic design: the oil deal with Islamabad is not merely economic but geopolitical, while the tariff on India serves as both pressure and provocation. It should be highlighted that after the recent tariff agreement, Pakistan now faces reciprocal tariffs broadly aligned with those imposed on key regional competitors like Bangladesh, Cambodia, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Sri Lanka. India is currently the only major competitor in the region facing higher tariff rates. In a broader international perspective, 42 countries have been granted lower tariffs than Pakistan’s 19 per cent. Trump’s treatment of Pakistan has been friendly but not exceptional.
Pakistan’s proven oil reserves – around 353.5 million barrels as estimated by the US Energy Information Administration in 2016 – are modest and unlikely to shift global energy equations. Pakistan may have potential. But that’s very different from proven reserves. No one doubts the country is underexplored. But ‘untapped riches’ is a phrase that’s been used too often without results.
It is claimed that seismic surveys suggest large potential in the Offshore Indus Basin. However, this is not new: a similar narrative surfaced in November 2015, when the then Minister of Petroleum claimed that Pakistan had recoverable reserves of around 200 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of natural gas and around 58 billion barrels of oil in its shale structure. ExxonMobil’s much-hyped offshore Kekra-1 well near Karachi, drilled in 2019 with ENI, OGDC and PPL, was abandoned after a $100 million effort failed to find commercially viable reserves.
Export-grade infrastructure is limited, and exploratory data remains sparse. But as ‘Foreign Affairs’ argued in July 2025, the value of the agreement lies in geographic strategy: Pakistan borders the Arabian Sea, Iran and Afghanistan and lies along China’s Belt and Road routes. It presents Washington with a lever in a region where strategic influence matters more than oil volumes. ‘The Washington Post’ further noted that US–China competition, strained Gulf supply chains, and rising energy insecurity have made geography a proxy for influence in South Asia.
Diplomatic posture toward Pakistan has shifted rapidly since Trump assumed office in January 2025. In June, General Michael Erik Kurilla praised Pakistan during testimony before the US House Armed Services Committee, calling it a “phenomenal partner in the counter-terrorism world” for its operations against ISIS-K, collaboration in capturing militants like Mohammad Sharifullah and sharing intelligence. Importantly, he asserted that US engagement with Pakistan “does not have to come at India’s expense”, marking a departure from earlier zero-sum frameworks. Soon after, Pakistan was excluded from a broader $397 million US aid cut affecting other regional partners. As recognition of the deepening partnership – and despite Kurilla’s pending retirement – Pakistan awarded him the Nishan-e-Imtiaz (Military). These developments suggest the shift is structural rather than personal.
The parallel imposition of a tariff threat on India does more than open a trade row; it deliberately disrupts India’s strategic alignment. At the same time that Pakistan is courted via an energy deal, New Delhi is publicly scolded for protectionism and its procurement from Moscow. The trade standoff comes amid ongoing bilateral negotiations aimed at doubling US–India trade by 2030. India’s resistance to opening its agricultural markets, combined with high domestic tariff levels on key exports, has drawn sharp US rebuke.
Trump’s framing seeks to penalise these policies while signalling that alignment with Russia carries real costs. International media noted India’s economic markets immediately reacted: stock futures fell sharply, the rupee weakened and foreign institutional investors sold off, reflecting destabilising uncertainty in bilateral commerce.
While Washington applies pressure on both Pakistan and India, Islamabad has not neglected its ties with China. On July 24–25, Army Chief Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir made an unplanned high-level visit to Beijing – skipping scheduled stops in Sri Lanka and Indonesia – to meet Foreign Minister Wang Yi, PLA leaders including Zhang Youxia and Vice President Han Zheng.
The focus: reinforcing the ‘iron-clad’ partnership, reviewing CPEC security and ensuring protection for Chinese nationals amid rising attacks. Chinese state media emphasised mutual support, joint counterterrorism and deepening defence and infrastructure ties. Wang pressed for tighter security; Munir reaffirmed Pakistan’s commitment in return for long-term Chinese investment.
The visit reflects Pakistan’s strategic bind. Billions in CPEC financing remain vital, but delays, mounting debt and insecurity have strained relations. Beijing has reportedly asked for expanded counterterrorism cooperation and discreet Chinese security deployments – demands Islamabad has so far resisted. The US-Pakistan thaw further complicates the picture: as Trump wields economic carrots and sticks, Islamabad must juggle China’s expectations without provoking US backlash over Gwadar or CPEC transparency.
Viewed together, the US-Pakistan oil agreement, India tariff threats, and Munir’s China diplomacy sketch triangular geopolitics. Washington is extending strategic latitude to Islamabad, asserting its right to shift alignments and leverage geography; concurrently, China is tightening its hand via economic and military partnership. Pakistan has placed itself at the centre of two great power vectors, but the vectors pull in different directions.
Risks to this configuration abound. Pakistan’s economy is fragile: high debt to China, currency instability, IMF conditionality and lack of investor confidence threaten the oil deal’s viability. Chinese investments are under increasing scrutiny for debt sustainability and security liabilities in Balochistan. US and multilateral financial leverage might constrain Pakistan’s ability to continue unconditional alignment with Beijing. If Pakistan fails to maintain sufficient neutrality, it risks alienating either Goliath. If Washington overplays pressure on India, it could damage its broader Indo-Pacific architecture.
If this framework endures, it could mark the most deliberate US-Pakistan strategic reorientation since the post-9/11 era. But it would be too much to expect much in official US aid, unlike in the past when Pakistan received $12 billion in economic assistance from 2002 to 2015. However, if Pakistan cannot sustain its balancing act, it could become a structural mistake rather than a pivot.
For now, the engagement is audacious, consequential, but risky. Trump is unpredictable and tends to get angry rather quickly. The pivot’s legacy will depend on whether Washington and Islamabad translate transactional openings into enduring strategic currency – and whether Islamabad can navigate the Sino-American tug without fracturing its own strategic identity.
The writer is former head of Citigroup’s emerging markets investments and author of ‘The Gathering Storm’.
SARGODHA (APP) – A total of 53,000 metric tons of sugar was released collectively by four sugar mills in the district to ensure the availability of sugar, stabilise prices, and provide relief to the public.
A spokesman for the district administration said here on Sunday that on the special direction of Deputy Commissioner Sargodha Capt (R) Muhammad Waseem, a huge quantity of sugar supply was carried out from local sugar mills to maintain ample supply in the market and prevent any artificial shortage or price hike.
He said that Noon Sugar Mills released 19,000 MT, Unicol Sugar Mills 12,000 MT, SW Sugar Mills 12,000 MT, while Al-Arabia Sugar Mills released 10,000 MT.
All mills reportedly have adequate stock and are maintaining daily supplies, he added.
He confirmed that sugar was being supplied at an ex-mill price of Rs 165 per kg, while in the retail market, it was available at Rs 173 per kg across Sargodha and surrounding areas.
The DC urged the citizens not to heed rumors or panic, as the availability of sugar had been ensured.
He advised the people to purchase according to need and refrain from hoarding, so that everyone could access sugar at government-fixed rates.
To further tighten monitoring, the Deputy Commissioner directed price control magistrates to remain active in the field.
On Sunday, action was taken on 13 complaints regarding overcharging. Legal proceedings were initiated against 12 retailers and one wholesaler, with one shopkeeper arrested and a total fine of Rs 120,000 imposed.
The Deputy Commissioner also directed the price control magistrates to continue market surveillance on Sundays and strictly enforce rates of sugar and other essential commodities.
THE institutions of governance have long needed reform and restructuring. This is apparent from the deterioration in public service delivery and people’s eroding confidence in the state machinery.
Weakening of the state’s institutional capacity has affected the quality of advice available to governments and meant even the most well-crafted policy cannot be effectively implemented.
The increase in the size of the civil service over the years — with federal employees now around half a million — has not made it fit for purpose or produced improvements in efficiency and reskilling of personnel. It has had the opposite effect. Around 2.4m civil servants are employed in provincial governments.
Acknowledging the need for change, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif recently convened a meeting where he heard proposals for reform from a committee set up earlier and chaired by Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal. The committee met over a dozen times and came up with recommendations for “transition to a smart civil service”, which were placed before the PM. Iqbal’s committee has now been given a month to translate these into an action plan for the PM’s approval.
Before discussing the key proposals, it is important to place this issue in its historical context. The declining capacity of the state machinery is the cumulative result of several factors. Among these, two stand out. One, postponed reforms and two, politicisation of the civil service. After independence, governance required transforming the colonial-era administrative system into one responsive to public expectations and the needs of a developing country. For decades, this task was ignored, which left the administrative system unable to meet the requirements of modern governance.
When reform was attempted in 1973, it was limited and controversial. Various government commissions and committees were set up in the 2000s and subsequently, whose recommendations were usually not implemented. At other times, ‘reform’ efforts took the form of isolated steps in select areas and not what was needed to make the civil service competent and people-friendly. Patchwork measures instituted from time to time tinkered with the system and fell short of a transformational overhaul of the civil service. No provincial government even undertook such an endeavour.
A systemic problem needs a systemic response and not patchwork reform.
Meanwhile, politicisation of the bureaucratic and police cadres from the 1970s onwards distorted their functioning and entailed a number of damaging consequences — undermining of efficiency, erosion of authority and draining of morale. It also meant the civil service ceased to attract the best and the brightest as it once did. Merit and professionalism were cast aside by both military and civilian governments in manipulating the state machinery for political ends. They failed to see this would ultimately leave governments with less rather than more control.
It is against this backdrop that the government is contemplating reform on the basis of around 50 recommendations from the Iqbal committee. These focus on areas of recruitment, training, performance management, institutional restructuring and compensation. The proposal for greater specialisation in the civil service is a welcome one. Downsizing is missing from the top recommendations except a passing mention of the need to implement those made by another committee.
The main recommendation is the establishment of a ‘National Executive Service’ to provide for lateral entry by opening a certain percentage of senior posts at Grade 20 or above to experts in different areas from outside the civil service.
It is unclear whether NES would have both lateral entrants and career civil servants. The last time lateral entry was attempted was in 1973, with mixed results. There is little doubt that professional talent inducted from outside can inject fresh ideas, encourage innovation and bring specialised expertise to a ‘closed service’.
But if one of the aims of reform is to end the ‘elitist’ nature of the higher civil service, the proposed NEC risks setting up another elite cadre akin to the Pakistan Administrative Service and the District Management Group. Creation of another service may raise both administrative and legal issues that would have to be resolved. Perhaps lateral inductions of professionals can be done while avoiding these problems, especially the risk of politicisation to ensure candidates are not selected on political criteria. The ‘competitive and transparent process’ promised by the proposal will need to be rigorously enforced.
Instead of creating a new separate service, the government could consider identifying select ministries where outside expertise and specialisation are sorely needed and initially open these to lateral entry above grade 19. Induction should be through the Federal Public Service Commission. It would be important to ensure representation of all provinces in lateral entry inductions to preserve the federal character of the service.
Downsizing the civil service is not addressed by the reform package but is essential for reform. A bloated bureaucracy is not just a drain on the exchequer but also contributes to its dysfunctionality. No serious effort has been made in the past to ‘rightsize’ the government.
There are several ways to do this. Reduce the tiers in the bureaucratic hierarchy, merge divisions which have proliferated and abolish posts lying vacant for over three years. Another way is to ensure federal and provincial expenditures are strictly aligned with constitutional mandates, which will both save money and reduce personnel.
The reform proposals do not deal with provincial and local government structures. Yet service delivery takes place at the local and provincial level. Excluding them in the reform effort means overlooking the crucial coordination the federal government maintains with them. Meaningful reform to improve service delivery means it has to be comprehensive with a whole-of-government vision. Strong local government institutions are essential for effective service delivery. Officials argue provincial and local government structures are the purview of provincial governments. But that doesn’t mean reform suggestions cannot be made to them to consider.
Comprehensive reform should involve the following interlinked aspects: fundamental changes in recruitment and training to meet today’s governance needs, professionalising the service by acquisition of specialised skills and technological know-how, incentivising performance by clear criteria, spelling out measurable deliverables, streamlining decision-making processes for quicker decisions, merit-based promotions and weeding out deadwood and poor performers by severance packages. It is yet to be seen how far the government’s final reform proposals meet these requirements. A systemic problem needs a systemic response.
The writer is a former ambassador to the US, UK and UN.
