Category: 7. Science

Researchers said they have developed an artificial intelligence system that can predict and simulate people’s decisions across a wide variety of situations.

Dubbed Centaur, the model was trained on 160 psychology studies involving 60,000 participants making more than 10 million choices while completing different tasks, like memory games, gambling, and problem solving.

Researchers found that Centaur was able to capture human behavior across several language-based scenarios, including ones it hadn’t been trained on.

Some experts not involved with the project argued that Centaur doesn’t meaningfully mimic human cognition.

Still, Centaur’s creators ultimately hope the model could be used to run experiments faster than conventional cognitive science studies.

The Permian-Triassic Mass Extinction – sometimes referred to as the “Great Dying,” happened around 252 million years ago, leading to the massive loss of marine species and significant declines in terrestrial plants and animals.

The event has been attributed to intense global warming triggered by a period of volcanic activity in Siberia, known as the Siberian Traps, but scientists have been unable to pinpoint why super-greenhouse conditions persisted for around five million years afterwards.

Now a team of international researchers led by the University of Leeds and the China University of Geosciences in Wuhan has gathered new data which supports the theory that the demise of tropical forests, and their slow recovery, limited carbon sequestration – a process where carbon dioxide is removed from the atmosphere and held in plants, soils or minerals.

During extensive field studies, the team used a new type of analysis of fossil records as well as clues about past climate conditions found in certain rock formations to reconstruct maps of changes in plant productivity during the Permian-Triassic Mass Extinction.

Their results, which are published on July 2 in Nature Communications,show that vegetation loss during the event led to greatly reduced levels of carbon sequestration resulting in a prolonged period where there were high levels of CO2.

The paper’s lead author, Dr Zhen Xu, from the School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, said: “The causes of such extreme warming during this event have been long discussed, as the level of warming is far beyond any other event.

“Critically, this is the only high temperature event in Earth’s history in which the tropical forest biosphere collapses, which drove our initial hypothesis. Now, after years of fieldwork, analysis and simulations, we finally have the data which supports it.”

The researchers believe their results reinforce the idea that thresholds, or ‘tipping points’ exist in Earth’s climate-carbon system which, when reached, means that warming can be amplified.

China is home to the most complete geological record of the Permian-Triassic mass Extinction and this work leverages an incredible archive of fossil data that has been gathered over decades by three generations of Chinese geologists.

The lead author Dr Zhen Xu is the youngest of these and is continuing the work begun by Professor Hongfu Yin and Professor Jianxin Yu, who are also authors of the study. Since 2016, Zhen and her colleagues have travelled throughout China from subtropical forests to deserts, including visiting areas accessible only by boat or on horseback.

Zhen came to the University of Leeds in 2020 to work with Professor Benjamin Mills on simulating the extinction event and assessing the climate impacts of the loss of tropical vegetation which is shown by the fossil record. Their results confirm that the change in carbon sequestration suggested by the fossils is consistent with the amount of warming that occurred afterwards.

Professor Mills added: “There is a warning here about the importance of Earth’s present day tropical forests. If rapid warming causes them to collapse in a similar manner, then we should not expect our climate to cool to preindustrial levels even if we stop emitting CO2.

“Indeed, warming could continue to accelerate in this case even if we reach zero human emissions. We will have fundamentally changed the carbon cycle in a way that can take geological timescales to recover, which has happened in Earth’s past.”

Reflecting on the study’s broader mission, Professor Hongfu Yin and Professor Jianxin Yu of the China University of Geosciences, underscored the urgency of blending tradition with innovation: “Paleontology needs to embrace new techniques — from numerical modelling to interdisciplinary collaboration — to decode the past and safeguard the future,” explained Professor Yin.

Professor Yu added: “Let’s make sure our work transcends academia: it is a responsibility to all life on Earth, today and beyond. Earth’s story is still being written, and we all have a role in shaping its next chapter.”

This research is primarily funded by the UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC), with additional funding for collaborators provided by UKRI, ETH+, and the Australian Research Council. The work was conducted in collaboration with the following institutions:

• School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
• State Key Laboratory of Geomicrobiology and Environmental Changes, School of Earth Sciences, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, P.R. China
• School of Physics, Chemistry and Earth Science, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia
• Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT, UK
• Department of Biosystems Science and Engineering, ETH Zürich, Basel, 4056, Switzerland
• Computational Evolution Group, Swiss Institute of Bioinformatics, Lausanne, 1015, Switzerland
• State Key Laboratory of Geological Processes and Mineral Resources, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, P.R. China
• Department of Biology, Howard University, Washington DC, USA
• Géosciences Environnement Toulouse, CNRS-Université de Toulouse III, Toulouse, France
• CEREGE, Aix Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, INRA, Coll France, Aix-en-Provence, France

As winter gives way to spring, seasonal snowpack in the American West begins to melt.

Though some of that melt flows over and through shallow alpine soil, new research shows that much of it sinks into bedrock where it percolates for years before resurfacing. Fresh snowmelt makes up less than half of the water in the region’s gushing spring streams, according to the study.

The new finding could improve water resources forecasts. Hydrologic models, which inform the forecasts, largely overlook groundwater contributions and assume the spring’s heavy flows come directly from seasonal snowmelt.

The authors of the study, published in Communications Earth & Environment, used a radioactive isotope of hydrogen known as tritium to measure when the water in 42 western U.S. catchments fell as precipitation.

They found that during late winter, when rain and snowmelt were scarce and streams were fed primarily by groundwater, the water fell as precipitation an average of 10.4 years ago. Even during spring, when the same streams were overflowing with fresh runoff, their chilly waters had an average age of 5.7 years, still indicating significant contributions from groundwater.

A Subterranean Bucket

Hydrologic models typically simulate mountains as impermeable masses covered with a thin sponge of alpine soil, said the study’s first author, Paul Brooks, a hydrologist at the University of Utah. The sponge can absorb some water, but anything extra will quickly drain away.

“Snowmelt is being recharged into groundwater and is mobilizing groundwater that has been stored over much longer [periods].”

However, over the past few decades, scientists have uncovered a steady stream of hints that mountains may store huge volumes of water outside their spongy outer layer. Many high-elevation creeks carry dissolved minerals similar to those found in groundwater, suggesting a subterranean origin. Scientists studying healthy alpine ecosystems in arid conditions have wondered whether plants were tapping into a hidden reservoir of water.

Though snowmelt and rainfall immediately increase streamflow, the relationship is not intuitive. “What appears to be happening is that snowmelt is being recharged into groundwater and is mobilizing groundwater that has been stored over much longer [periods],” said James Kirchner, a hydrologist at Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich who was not involved in the research.

In areas where the mountains were made of porous sandstone, waters monitored in the new study were much older. In one such stream, the average age of water in winter was 14 years.

Mountains are “more like a bucket with a sponge on top.”

The authors were able to convincingly demonstrate the age of the flows because they used tritium, Kirchner said. Though scientists have previously used tritium to date water from individual streams and large bodies such as oceans and lakes, this study is the first to use tritium to date alpine groundwater and snowmelt across multiple catchments, Brooks said.

On the basis of historic flows, annual precipitation, and the ages of the stream water, the mountains could store an order of magnitude more water than accounted for in current models, Brooks said. As opposed to the impermeable masses in traditional models, he explained, mountains are “more like a bucket with a sponge on top.”

This finding could change how scientists think about the alpine water cycle. “If precipitation takes, on average, years to exit as streamflow, that means that streamflow in any one year is a function of years of climate and weather,” Brooks said. That means forecasters should consider more than just the most recent snowpack when estimating spring flows and potential flooding.

But further research is needed to unearth the role mountains play in water storage. The current study is limited because it covers only snowmelt-driven streams in the arid western United States, Kirchner said. Things might work differently in wetter places, he added.

—Mark DeGraff (@markr4nger.bsky.social), Science Writer

Citation: DeGraff, M. (2025), Years-old groundwater dominates spring mountain streams, Eos, 106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EO250238. Published on 3 July 2025.

Text © 2025. The authors. CC BY-NC-ND 3.0
Except where otherwise noted, images are subject to copyright. Any reuse without express permission from the copyright owner is prohibited.

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