Category: 2. World

On August 5 and 7, Lebanon’s cabinet met to discuss the fraught issue of Hezbollah’s disarmament. The first session ended with an announcement from the government that the Lebanese army would be tasked with forming a plan of action and carrying it out before the end of the year. The second session ended with all four Shia members of the cabinet who attended the session walking out in protest. The cabinet then voted in favor of a plan, pushed by the US, to disarm Hezbollah.

Bringing Hezbollah’s weapons under the control of the Lebanese state would bring an end to the era in which the group maintained military superiority. It would also be a boon to Hezbollah’s domestic opponents; both reformers and members of the sullied political establishment that created the conditions under which Hezbollah kept their weapons after the 1989 Taef Agreement that ended the civil war, and despite the 2000 Israeli withdrawal and subsequent end to the south’s occupation (with the exception of the Shebaa Farms area).

Some of those opponents treat Hezbollah’s arms as the sole issue holding back the country. While that is hardly true, bringing Hezbollah’s weapons under state control would be a big victory for the reformist government and president which have been in power since the beginning of the year. And they need all the support they can get, locally and internationally.

Eight months into their tenure, however, few of the promises [Aoun and Salam] had made have come to pass

Hezbollah’s military and political influence was heavily diminished after last year’s brutal Israeli war on Lebanon. This gave the opportunity for a new president, Joseph Aoun, and prime minister, Nawaf Salam, to be named earlier this year, marking a potential new phase in Lebanese politics. Eight months into their tenure, however, few of the promises they had made have come to pass, and Lebanon is currently going through its most sensitive phase with the current attempts to bring Hezbollah’s weapons under the control of the Lebanese state. 

For the Lebanese government to gain the faith of the population, exert its control over the entirety of Lebanese territory, and convince Hezbollah and a segment of their supporters that it can disarm and that the state has the best interest of all citizens at heart, it needs to stabilize South Lebanon. However, Israel has continued to act with impunity, violating the ceasefire that has been in place since November 2024 hundreds of times, and is still occupying Lebanese land. 

Israel’s aggression undermines the Lebanese government’s efforts at state building and reconstruction, and only one party can get them to stop: the United States. Instead, Aoun and Salam reportedly risked losing US and international support over the lack of progress in disarming Hezbollah, as the US is pushing for an unrealistic timeline to resolve the issue.

A new page in Lebanese politics

In September 2024, Israel launched a full-on war and major ground invasion of Lebanon for the fourth time in 50 years. A ceasefire that aimed to end the war, stop Israeli attacks, withdraw the Israeli military from southern Lebanon within two months, pull back Hezbollah’s fighters north of the Litani River and to deploy the Lebanese Armed Forces in their place, came into effect on November 27, 2024.

As the dust settled from Israel’s offensive, much of the eastern Bekaa Valley, the South, and Beirut’s southern suburbs were devastated and lying in rubble. Already amid one of the worst economic and financial collapses, Lebanon does not have the funds to rebuild, though it desperately needs to rebuild the destroyed areas. The World Bank estimates $11 billion is needed for reconstruction and recovery. 

After coming to power, Aoun and Salam announced reformist agendas aimed at rebuilding the damaged parts of Lebanon, pushing for accountability for the financial collapse and port explosion, and bringing all military capability under the supervision of the state—essentially a call to disarm Hezbollah as a militia. They both brought with them a wave of optimism, both domestically and internationally. However, the international community, primarily the United States but also the countries of the Arab Gulf, tied badly needed reconstruction aid to the issue of reforms and disarming Hezbollah, limiting the new leadership from the beginning.

Patience is starting to wear thin among the Lebanese population and there is a deep desire to see progress

The Lebanese government made some progress concerning economic reforms that had been blocked for at least five years, including an important win by lifting banking secrecy and some other banking reform legislation. Lebanon’s Minister of Social Affairs Haneen Sayed also wrote on X that her ministry was giving “more than 260,000 Lebanese in areas directly impacted by the war…direct cash assistance…for a period of six months.” Still, patience is starting to wear thin among the Lebanese population and there is a deep desire to see progress.

The US has been more openly active in Lebanon. It seemingly has tied support for the reformist government to the issues of disarmament and economic reform, though the latter issue seems to have taken a back seat these last few months. While the US has pressed the Lebanese government hard, it has failed to ensure that their Israeli allies uphold their end of the ceasefire bargain.

In fact, the continued Israeli attacks and lack of power by the Lebanese state to react have led to some conspiracies that the new government, Salam in particular, are working either directly or indirectly on behalf of Israel. In May, when Salam visited Sports City in Beirut for the inaugural match of the Lebanese Premier League football championship, he was met with chants of “Zionist, Zionist, Nawaf Salam is a Zionist.”

It was an acute example of how a failure to stop Israeli assaults on Lebanese territory fuels misinformation campaigns and narratives that undercut the reform projects Salam and Aoun are undertaking, as well as emboldens calls from Hezbollah and their supporters for the need to hold onto their arms.

The disarmament timetable

The Lebanese army was tasked by the government to submit a plan on September 2 that will see them disarm Hezbollah before the end of the year. The initial cabinet session, held on August 5, to discuss the issue ended with two ministers—who are reportedly aligned with Hezbollah and their allies Amal—leaving in disapproval. The follow-up session ended with all of the Shia ministers in attendance leaving the session altogether.

Hezbollah is clearly displeased with the decision. The party’s chief Naim Qassem said he will treat the decision as though “it doesn’t exist,” while prominent Hezbollah MP Mohammad Raad called it akin to “suicide” for the group and Hezbollah MP Ali Mokdad said that the statement is only “ink on paper.” During a speech on August 15, Qassem said that the cabinet would “bear responsibility for any internal explosion and any destruction of Lebanon,” and accused the leadership of “leading the country to ruin.”

Aoun mentioned Qassem’s speech, and said that the threats of civil unrest were “words, and were not justified.”

For his part, President Aoun mentioned bringing all arms under the state’s authority in his inaugural speech after he was elected, and in the following months, he admitted that the process was “delicate.” After the cabinet decision of August 7, and ahead of US Special Envoy Tom Barrack’s visit, Aoun and Salam gave television interviews to discuss the matter. Salam said that “What matters to [the government] is that all these weapons come under the authority of the state,” and explained that “concretely, Lebanon [was] leaving the camp it has been in for decades.” Aoun mentioned Qassem’s speech, and said that the threats of civil unrest were “words, and were not justified.” He further explained that the country faced “two options: either accept the document and ask” the international community to have Israel stop attacking Lebanon, “or not accept it and see the aggressions and economic isolation of Lebanon intensify.”

Walking a tightrope

Lebanon’s government has to make progress on various issues, but it cannot succeed if Israel does not stop attacking Lebanese territory and undermining all efforts at state building and reconstruction. The United States has a big role to play in this matter.

Last month, US Special Envoy Barrack did not give assurances to the government about having Israel stop its attacks and has delivered conflicting messages on the US’ stance and support on multiple occasions. However, after his latest meeting with President Aoun on August 18, Barrack stated “the Lebanese government has done their part. They’ve taken the first step. Now what we need is Israel to comply.” Only time will tell if actions follow this statement.

The failure to hold Israel accountable undercuts any efforts the Lebanese state makes toward disarmament. And the fact that there has been no aid for reconstruction hurts the government directly. Indeed, many of the Lebanese from the most impacted areas of Israel’s attacks have seen little to no state support enter, increasing their frustration toward the authorities and not necessarily the countries that have been withholding the aid. Thousands of others are still displaced from villages that were razed during the war or during the ceasefire period.

Europe and the Gulf states also have a role to play. Gulf leaders, including Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman, showed they have the ear of US President Donald Trump when they convinced him to lift sanctions on Syria. A few Gulf leaders also want to see Hezbollah’s power diminished and have been thawing relations with the current government, after nearly a decade of disengagement with Lebanon.

They could also tell the Trump administration and Israel that the best way to build a strong Lebanese state and counter Hezbollah’s influence is to let the Nawaf government build faith among the Lebanese people. Stopping the attacks and abiding by the November 2024 ceasefire agreement is the first step toward building that faith. Supporting the reconstruction of the country is another priority that needs to be encouraged.

Should Aoun and Salam fail, the political establishment which led Lebanon to the current reality will potentially rebound and consolidate its control

The last six years have been brutal for residents of Lebanon, Lebanese and non-Lebanese alike. The endemic corruption and culture of impunity established at the tail end of Lebanon’s civil war from 1975 to 1990 manifested in complete economic collapse, mass emigration, and, for many, a loss of hope in Lebanon’s future. For decades, Lebanon’s political establishment has hoarded the country’s wealth and resources at the expense of citizens and residents of the country. It has derailed any attempts at justice or accountability for historic crimes.

For the first time in the post-civil war period, Lebanon has a chance at taking the first steps to build a state for all its citizens in a country that prioritizes justice and accountability and includes segments of the population historically under or unserved by the state. These are the bare minimums needed for Lebanon to begin rebuilding, reforming, and becoming a place where people can live in dignity. Should Aoun and Salam fail, the political establishment which led Lebanon to the current reality will potentially rebound and consolidate its control over every lever of government and return to the status quo where all efforts at reform were stifled. 

As the talk over disarmament heats up, so too does political and social tension in Lebanon. The Lebanese government will need to walk a tightrope to manage that tension by showing they are building a project for all Lebanese citizens, no matter the sect or geographical disposition. To walk that tightrope, the government will need all the help it can get. 

Justin Salhani is a Nonresident Fellow at TIMEP focusing on misinformation and disinformation in the Levant.

Reuters

Reuters

Rescue workers in northern Nigeria are still searching for about 25 missing passengers after a boat accident in Sokoto state on Sunday, a local councillor has said.

The National Emergency Management Agency (Nema) said the boat was carrying more than 50 people to a local market when it capsized in the River Goronyo.

Aminu Bare, a councillor in Sokoto, said that 25 people had been found alive, as rescue efforts continued on Monday.

Earlier, Nema said it was “intensifying efforts alongside local authorities to locate [those] still missing”. Boat accidents occur regularly in Nigeria due to overcrowding, poorly maintained boats and the failure to enforce safety regulations.

In December 2024, 54 bodies were recovered from the River Niger after a boat that may have been carrying more than 200 passengers capsized.

A month earlier, a wooden dugout canoe, packed with nearly 300 passengers, overturned and sank in the middle of the Niger killing nearly 200 people.

In another accident that gained a lot of attention, more than 100 people drowned two years ago in the south-western part of the country.

The vessel they were in was carrying around 300 passengers travelling from Kwara state to Niger state after a wedding celebration.

According to government regulations all passengers are supposed to wear life jackets, but they are not always available, especially in rural areas.

Wia dis foto come from, ABIR SULTAN/POOL/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

36 minutes wey don pass

Wia dis foto come from, Reuters

Wetin be di E1 settlement plan?

Wia dis foto come from, Reuters

Settlements na one of di most contentious issues between Israel and di Palestinians.

Di E1 settlement project, wey first dey proposed under Yitzhak Rabin for di 1990s, begin wit initial plans for 2,500 homes.

For 2004 e bin dey expanded to around 4,000 units along wit commercial and tourism facilities.

Between 2009 and 2020 new phases dey announced, including land confiscations, design plans and road construction.

But di proposals dey frozen each time sake of international pressure.

Why e dey so controversial?

Developing di E1 area dey seen as effectively blocking di establishment of a Palestinian state.

Dat na sake of say di E1 site strategic position: e separate areas south of Jerusalem from those to im north and go prevent a contiguous Palestinian urban area wey connect Ramallah, East Jerusalem and Bethlehem.

According to di Israeli group Peace Now, wey dey monitor settlement activity in di West Bank, di new housing units go represent a 33% increase in di size of di Maale Adumim settlement, wey currently get population of around 38,000 residents.

Di project go connect di residential area to surrounding industrial zones and go pave di way for expanding Israeli control over large parts of di West Bank, according to Peace Now.

Di group tok say di final approval hearing for di E1 settlement plan go hold next Wednesday by a technical committee wey don already reject all objections to di proposals.

Wetin be di occupied West Bank?

Wia dis foto come from, Reuters

Di West Bank na di land between Israel and di River Jordan and na home to an estimated three million Palestinians.

Along wit East Jerusalem and Gaza, e be part of wetin dey widely known as di Occupied Palestinian Territories.

E get about 160 Israeli settlements, housing about 700,000 Jews, in di West Bank and East Jerusalem.

Di Palestinians don always oppose Israel presence in dis areas. Israel still get overall control of di West Bank, but since di 1990s, a Palestinian govment – known as di Palestinian Authority – don run most of im towns and cities.

Since Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October 2023, Israel pressure on West Bank Palestinians don increase sharply, wey justify as legitimate security measures.

In June, di UN recorded di highest monthly injury toll of Palestinians in over two decades – state say 100 Palestinians don dey injured by Israeli settlers.

During di first half of 2025, e bin record 757 settler attacks wey bin result in Palestinian casualties or property damage – a 13% increase on di same period in 2024.

Palestinians and human rights groups also accuse di Israeli security forces say dem fail for dia legal duty as occupiers to protect Palestinians as well as dia own citizens – not just turning a blind eye to settler attacks, but even join in, according to a 2024 report from Human Rights Watch.

Israel claims say di Geneva Conventions wey forbid settlement for occupied territories no apply – a view disputed by many of im own allies as well as international lawyers.

Palestinians want all Israeli settlements to dey removed as dey see di occupied West Bank as land for a future independent Palestinian state.

However, di Israeli govment no recognise di right of di Palestinians to have dia own state and argue say di West Bank na part of di Israeli homeland.

In July 2024, di top court of di UN, di International Court of Justice (ICJ), tok say Israel kontinu presence in di Occupied Palestinian Territories dey illegal and Israel should withdraw di settlers.

Among im oda far-reaching conclusions, di court tok say Israeli restrictions on Palestinians in di occupied territories constitute “systemic discrimination based on, inter alia, race, religion or ethnic origin”.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu say court don make a “decision of lies”.

“Di Jewish pipo no be occupiers in dia own land – not in our eternal capital Jerusalem, nor in our ancestral heritage of Judea and Samaria [di West Bank]”, Mr Netanyahu tok for statement.

Wia dis foto come from, Reuters

How di world don react to di E1 plan?

Following im announcement on di plan, Smotrich bin thank US President Donald Trump and Ambassador Mike Huckabee for dia support, affirm say, in im view, di West Bank na “one inseparable part of di Land of Israel promised by God”.

E also tok say di Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu support im plans to bring one million new settlers into di West Bank.

Di Palestinian Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned di E1 project, call am an attack on di unity of Palestinian territory and a blow to di possibility to establish a state.

Tok na say di plan undermine geographic and demographic cohesion and entrenches di division of di West Bank into isolated areas wey dey surrounded by colonial expansion, making annexation easier.

In response to di plans to build in di E1 area, di US State Department tok say “a stable West Bank keep Israel secure and dey in line wit dis administration goal to achieve peace in di region”.

However, di UN and di EU don instead urge Israel not to progress di plan.

Di UN tok say construction in di E1 area go sever di northern and southern West Bank, “severely undermine di prospects for di realization of a viable, contiguous Palestinian State”.

Kaja Kallas, di EU foreign policy chief, tok say di E1 new settlement plan “further undermine di two-state solution while e be breach of international law”.

UK Foreign Minister David Lammy bin oppose di plans, say dey go “divide a future Palestinian state in two and mark a flagrant breach of international law”.

Turkey foreign ministry also condemn di decision, say e “disregards international law” and targets di “territorial integrity” of di state of Palestine.

Egypt bin call di project a “flagrant violation of international law and Security Council resolutions.”

Di Jordanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs also oppose di scheme, describe am as assault on di “inalienable right of di Palestinian pipo to establish an independent and sovereign state based on di 4 June 1967 borders, wit East Jerusalem as im capital”.

Di E1 announcement come shortly afta various kontries, such as France and Canada, say dey plan to recognise one Palestinian state later dis year.

Currently most kontries – 147 of di UN 193 member states – formally recognise a Palestinian state.

UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer say di UK go also recognise a Palestinian state in September unless Israel meet certain conditions, including agreeing to a ceasefire in Gaza and revive di prospect of a two-state solution.

Following di announcement of di E1 new settlement plan, Smotrich tok say go be “no state to recognise”.

“Whoever in di world dey try to recognise a Palestinian state today go receive our answer on di ground. No be wit documents nor wit decisions or statements, but wit facts. Facts of houses, facts of neighbourhoods,” e add.

Additional reporting by Alla Daraghme and Muhannad Tutanji from BBC News Arabic.

Countries were unable to reach consensus on the text of an agreement on plastic pollution during the resumed fifth session of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC-5.2), held in Geneva, Switzerland, August 5-14, 2025. Plastics play a critical role in every sector of every economy, including food packaging, medical devices, information technology, aerospace, and automobile production. The U.S. delegation pushed for common-sense and pragmatic approaches in the agreement that will reduce plastic pollution in our environment while also protecting American industries that rely on plastic to produce high-performance and cost-effective products used by Americans every day. The United States supports an agreement that allows countries to use tailored and cost-effective solutions that will work best in their country. We did not support prescriptive top-down regulatory approaches that will stifle innovation and drive consumer inflation across the U.S. economy and all over the world.

Foreign Families On the Rise

According to the Immigration Services Agency of Japan, the number of foreign nationals living in the country as of the end of 2024 was 3,769,000. This represents an increase of 358,000 from the end of 2023 and is 1.8 times higher than a decade ago.

A particularly fast-growing category is foreigners with the “engineer/specialist in humanities/international services” visa, which includes a wide range of occupations such as technicians, interpreters, designers, language instructors, and more. Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare data shows that the number of foreign workers in this ESHIS category reached 411,000, a 3.9-fold increase in the 10 years leading up to 2024.

ESHIS visa holders are permitted to bring their families to Japan, just like those with visas for work such as university teaching, legal services, and accounting. Naturally, this has led to a rise in the number of foreign children living in Japan. It’s within the context of these structural changes that the urgent need for Japanese language education for foreign children has arisen.

The number of foreign children enrolled in public elementary and junior high schools reached some 129,000 in fiscal 2024, a 9.0% increase from the previous year, according to the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology (MEXT).

The problem is that many schools lack the staff needed to teach JFL, or Japanese as a foreign language, to these children. As a result, more and more children are growing up without sufficient Japanese language skills. Without a shared base in language, which is crucial for communication, their academic and career prospects will be adversely affected and they will tend to be isolated in their communities.

70,000 Children in Need of Japanese Instruction

In MEXT’s statistics for fiscal 2023, there were almost 70,000 students that require JFL instruction in public schools, double the number from a decade earlier.

In Matsudo, a city in Chiba Prefecture adjacent to Tokyo, 23,000 of its approximately 500,000 residents as of the end of 2024 were foreign nationals.

To address their needs, the city’s Board of Education set a policy to establish JFL classrooms in elementary schools with at least 18 students requiring instruction in fiscal 2022. As of fiscal 2025, 15 out of the city’s 45 public schools had established these classrooms. From fiscal 2024, a school readiness program was established, where foreign children receive 20 days of intensive instruction before entering school, covering Japanese language essentials for school life such as greetings and reporting health issues. The Board of Education has assigned 33 staff members for this language education and has also secured 37 paid volunteers.

Matsudo’s efforts are relatively comprehensive. In urban parts of Japan, such as the Tokyo metropolitan area and Aichi Prefecture, where there are many students requiring this instruction, it is easier for schools to provide adequate support.

Growing Crisis at Regional Schools

On the other hand, the situation is particularly serious in more rural areas, where foreign children are more thinly dispersed. In terms of the rate of increase of foreign children requiring JFL instruction from 2021 to 2023, Tottori Prefecture was the highest, seeing growth of 2.4 times, from 18 to 44 students. It was followed by Ōita (2.3 times, from 50 to 114), Kōchi (2.3 times, from 12 to 27), Kagoshima (1.9 times, from 28 to 53), and Saga (1.9 times, from 40 to 74). Because the number of foreign children in these areas is much smaller than in urban areas and securing teaching staff is more of a challenge, local governments tend not to have sufficient systems in place.

In fiscal 2023, roughly 30% of public elementary and middle schools across Japan (9,241 schools) had students who needed JFL instruction. According to Wakabayashi Hideki, a visiting associate professor at Utsunomiya University’s School of International Studies who has been involved with the education of foreign children, 70% of these schools had four or fewer foreign children, demonstrating the situation of foreign children being thinly dispersed.

Looking at the breakdown of children requiring JFL instruction by their native tongue, the highest is Portuguese-speaking children, many of whom are of Japanese-Brazilian descent. The number of children native in Chinese, Filipino, and Vietnamese languages is also rising quickly, and some regions are seeing an increase in those with Nepali and Burmese backgrounds.

“The problem is more likely to go unrecognized when only a few students need support, and municipalities often can’t secure budgets and staff,” says Wakabayashi. “Homeroom teachers and other staff are often left to handle the situation alone. And when students come from multiple linguistic backgrounds, that can make the challenge even greater.”

Many children are unable to keep up with classes taught in Japanese through school instruction alone. That’s why, in urban areas, an increasing number of Japanese language classes are being offered outside of schools by public organizations, NPOs, and local governments to support their learning. By contrast, such programs are often lacking in certain regional areas.

MEXT has issued a Guide for Accepting Foreign Children, and included Japanese instruction in the national curriculum guidelines starting in fiscal 2018. While the government sets staffing standards, it leaves decisions about actual staffing levels and local JFL programs to municipalities, offering mainly subsidies.

The Limits of Keeping It Local

There is also the more fundamental issue of children not attending school. In fiscal 2023, a record 970 foreign children of school age were not enrolled, a 24.6% increase from the previous year. Adding also children whose enrollment status could not be confirmed, MEXT puts the number of such children who may not be attending school at 8,601.

The Constitution of Japan guarantees children the right to receive an education and stipulates that guardians must ensure their children are educated. Legally speaking, this applies only to children with Japanese citizenship, but based on the International Covenants on Human Rights and the Convention on the Rights of the Child, foreign children are guaranteed the opportunity, if desired, to receive the same education as Japanese children.

Japan’s foreign population is expected to hit 9.39 million in 2070, making up 10% of the nation’s total, according to 2023 projections by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. However, the inflow of foreign nationals is already outpacing these projections, making it likely that the 10% mark will be reached as early as 2050.

“In Japan, there is little awareness of the need to build social infrastructure with the settlement of foreign residents in mind,” says Menju Toshihiro, visiting professor at Kansai University of International Studies. “As a result, the education system for foreign children has largely been left to local governments and individual schools, leading to significant regional disparities. To ensure that foreign children, who will help support Japan’s future, can acquire the same academic abilities as Japanese children, the national government must establish a clear policy and restructure the education system.”

(Originally published in Japanese. Banner photo © Pixta.)

At last week’s Alaska summit, Vladimir Putin made full control of Donbas – Ukraine’s industrial heartland in the east – a central condition for ending the war.

According to sources briefed on the talks, the Russian leader demanded that Ukrainian forces withdraw from Donetsk and Luhansk, the two regions that make up Donbas, in exchange for a freeze along the rest of the frontline.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy has consistently rejected giving up any territory under Kyiv’s control, making Donbas one of the defining faultlines of the peace talks. The idea is also deeply unpopular at home: about 75% of Ukrainians oppose formally ceding any land to Russia, according to polling by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.

Putin’s drive to dominate the region dates back to 2014 when Moscow armed and financed separatist proxies and sent covert troops across the border. That campaign escalated into the full-scale invasion of 2022, when Russian forces seized much of the region outright.

Today, Russia holds about 17980 square miles (46,570 sq km), or roughly 88%, of Donbas, including the entirety of Luhansk and about three-quarters of Donetsk.

Ukraine continues to hold several key cities and fortified positions in the Donetsk region, defended at the cost of tens of thousands of lives. More than 250,000 civilians remain in the parts of the region still under Ukrainian control.

---

Where is Donbas and why does Putin want it?

Short for Donets Basin, Donbas is an industrial heartland in eastern Ukraine rich in coal and heavy industry. It has long been one of Ukraine’s most Russian-speaking regions, shaped by waves of Russian migration during the Soviet industrial drive that turned its coalmines and steel plants into the engine of the USSR.

Its political loyalties often leaned eastwards: Viktor Yanukovych, the Kremlin-backed president ousted in 2014, was born in Donetsk and built his power base there.

Donbas was thrust into conflict in 2014 after Yanukovich was toppled by mass protests and fled the country. In the aftermath, Moscow seized Crimea and unrest spread across eastern Ukraine. Armed groups backed by Russian weapons and fighters declared the creation of self-proclaimed “people’s republics” in Donetsk and Luhansk.

The separatist war fuelled resentment toward Moscow in Ukraine-held parts of Donbas. In Ukraine’s 2019 presidential election, voters there backed Zelenskyy by a wide margin. A Russian speaker himself, Zelenskyy campaigned on ending the conflict while safeguarding Ukraine’s sovereignty.

From the outset of the invasion in February 2022, Putin cast the protection of Donbas residents as a central justification for launching what he termed his “special military operation”. In a televised address, he said the self-proclaimed people’s republics of Donetsk and Luhansk had appealed to Moscow for help, and he repeated unfounded claims that Russian-speaking residents were facing “genocide” at the hands of Kyiv.

In reality, Donbas served as a pretext: within hours, Russian forces advanced far beyond the region, driving on Kyiv in an attempt to overthrow Zelenskyy’s government and seize control of the entire country.

Donbas map

---

How does the average Russian view Donbas?

For years, Russian state media tried to cultivate sympathy for Donbas, portraying Ukraine as discriminating against its Russian-speaking population, but it never truly struck a chord with the wider public.

Unlike Crimea, which carried deep historical and emotional resonance for many Russians, Donbas remained a more distant and industrial region with little symbolic weight.

On the eve of the full-scale invasion, independent polls showed that only about a quarter of Russians supported the idea of incorporating Donetsk and Luhansk into Russia.

Since the invasion, however, the narrative has shifted: surveys indicate that a majority of Russians accept and support Putin’s stated aim of “protecting” the population of Donbas, and a majority back the annexation of the territories.

---

Will Putin’s ambitions end with Donbas?

Putin reportedly told Donald Trump in Alaska that in exchange for Donetsk and Luhansk, he would halt further advances and freeze the frontline in the southern Ukrainian region of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, where Russian forces occupy significant areas.

In public, Putin has repeatedly said Russia was seeking full control of the four regions it claimed to have annexed in autumn 2022, including Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. He has also spoken of establishing so-called “buffer zones” inside Ukraine’s Kharkiv, Sumy and Chernihiv regions.

“Putin has acted opportunistically; when he launched the invasion he had no fixed territorial limits in mind,” said a former high ranking Kremlin official. “His appetite grows once he’s tasted success.”

Military analysts doubt whether Russia has the economic or military capacity to push much beyond Donbas and say the conflict could instead drag on for years as a grinding war of attrition in Ukraine.

Ukraine has warned that conceding Donbas, with its string of fortified cities such as Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, would hand Russia a launchpad for deeper advances into central Ukraine.

Fearing an imminent Israeli ground offensive, thousands of Palestinians have left their homes in eastern areas of Gaza City, now under constant Israeli bombardment, for points to the west and south of the shattered territory.

Israel’s plan to seize control of Gaza City has stirred alarm abroad and at home where tens of thousands of Israelis held some of the largest protests seen since the war began, urging a deal to end the fighting and free the remaining 50 hostages held by Palestinian militants in Gaza.

The planned offensive has spurred Egyptian and Qatari ceasefire mediators to step up efforts in what a source familiar with the talks with Hamas militants in Cairo said could be “the last-ditch attempt.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has described Gaza City as Hamas’ last big urban bastion. But, with Israel already holding 75% of Gaza, the military has warned that expanding the offensive could endanger hostages still alive and draw troops into protracted and deadly guerrilla warfare.

Read More: Hamas rejects Israel’s Gaza relocation plan

In Gaza City, many Palestinians have also been calling for protests soon to demand an end to a war that has demolished much of the territory and wrought a humanitarian disaster, and for Hamas to intensify talks to avert the Israeli ground offensive.

An Israeli armoured incursion into Gaza City could see the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people, many of whom have been uprooted multiple times earlier in the war.

Ahmed Mheisen, Palestinian shelter manager in Beit Lahiya, a war-devastated suburb abutting eastern Gaza City, said 995 families had departed the area in recent days for the south.

With the Israeli offensive looming, Mheisen put the number of tents needed for emergency shelter at 1.5 million, saying Israel had allowed only 120,000 tents into the territory during a January-March ceasefire.

The UN humanitarian office said last week 1.35 million people were already in need of emergency shelter items in Gaza.

“The people of Gaza City are like someone who received a death sentence and is awaiting execution,” said Tamer Burai, a Gaza City businessman.

“I am moving my parents and my family to the south today or tomorrow. I can’t risk losing any of them should there be a surprising invasion,” he told Reuters via a chat app.

A protest is scheduled for Thursday in Gaza City by different unions, and people took to social media platforms vowing to participate, which will raise pressure on Hamas.

The last round of indirect ceasefire talks ended in late July in deadlock with the sides trading blame for its collapse.

Sources close to the Cairo talks said Egyptian and Qatari mediators had met with leaders of Hamas, allied militant group Islamic Jihad and other factions with little progress reported. Talks will continue on Monday, the sources added.

Hamas told mediators it was ready to resume talks about a U.S.-proposed 60-day truce and release of half the hostages, one official, who asked not to be named, told Reuters, but also for a wider deal that would end the war.

Diplomatic deadlock

Israel says it will agree to cease hostilities if all the hostages are released and Hamas lays down its arms – the latter demand publicly rejected by the Islamist group until a Palestinian state is established.

A Hamas official told Reuters on Monday the group continues to reject Israeli demands to disarm or expel its leaders from Gaza.

Gaps also appear to linger regarding the extent of an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and how humanitarian aid will be delivered around the enclave, where malnutrition is rife and aid groups warn of unfolding famine.

On Saturday, the Israeli military said it was preparing to help equip Gazans with tents and other shelter equipment ahead of relocating them from combat zones to the south of the enclave. It did not provide further details on quantities or how long it would take to get the equipment into the enclave.

“Existing tents where people are living (in the south) have worn out and won’t protect people against rainwater. There are no new tents in Gaza because of the Israeli restrictions on aid at the border crossings,” Palestinian economist Mohammad Abu Jayyab told Reuters.

He said some Gaza City families had begun renting property and shelters in the south and moved in their belongings.

“Some people learned from previous experience, and they don’t want to be taken by surprise. Also, some think it is better to move earlier to find a space,” Abu Jayyab added.

The war began when Hamas-led militants stormed across the border into southern Israel on October 7, 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages back to Gaza, according to Israeli tallies.

More than 61,000 Palestinians have since been killed in Israel’s ensuing air and ground war in Gaza, according to local health officials, with most of the 2.2 million population internally displaced.

Five more Palestinians have died of malnutrition and starvation in the past 24 hours, the Gaza health ministry said on Monday, raising the number of people who died of those causes to 263, including 112 children, since the war started.

Israel disputed the figures provided by the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory.

Gaza tribunal urges UN armed action to stop genocide

Former UN official Richard Falk warns in Istanbul that failure to act against Israel’s Gaza offensive would mark ‘historic failure of humanity’

The Gaza Tribunal on Monday called for an urgent international armed intervention to stop what it described as Israel’s “most lethal phase of genocide” in Gaza, warning that failure to act would mark “an historic failure of humanity.”

At a press conference in Istanbul, tribunal president Richard Falk urged governments to bypass the UN Security Council and let the General Assembly authorize armed intervention in Gaza. PHOTO: ANADOLU

At a press conference held in Istanbul, the president of the independent tribunal, Richard Falk, professor emeritus of international law at the US’ Princeton University and the former UN special rapporteur on human rights in the Palestinian territories (2008–2014), urged governments to bypass the Security Council and empower the UN General Assembly to authorize armed intervention.

“If we do not take action of a serious and drastic kind at this time, anything done in a more moderate fashion will be too late, too late to save the surviving people who have already been traumatized by more than 22 months of genocide,” Falk said.

“The eyes and the ears of the world have been exposed, as never before, including the Holocaust, to the transparency of genocide carried out in real time. It challenges our humanity.”

Falk criticized Western democracies for what he called “complicit behavior,” while noting shifts in public opinion.

“We are trying to address the conscience of all people and encourage the kind of activism that will produce changes in government ahead, particularly an arms embargo and various forms of sanctions … including the kind of solidarity with the Palestinian struggle that proved so effective in the anti-apartheid campaign,” he said.

‘Not only for Gaza but for well-being of the world’

Handed over to Anadolu, the tribunal’s emergency statement, titled Time to ACT: Mobilizing Against Israel’s Planned Conquest on Gaza City and Central Gaza, highlighted Israel’s Aug. 7 National Security Cabinet decision, which Falk said was “opposed by Israel’s own military high command,” to press forward with the conquest of Gaza City, where nearly 1 million displaced Palestinians are sheltering.

“The imminent escalation deeply challenges member governments of the UN … to take drastic action now,” Falk declared, citing legal pathways such as the 1950 Uniting for Peace Resolution and the Responsibility to Protect framework adopted at the UN’s 2005 summit.

Quoting Palestinian UN envoy Riyad Mansour’s appeal for immediate protection forces, the tribunal declared: “We, as the Gaza Tribunal, join with those who treat silence in the face of genocide as complicity.”

Falk also condemned what he called systematic efforts to silence truth-telling. He pointed to sanctions against UN human rights rapporteurs and the “August 10th assassination of Assas al-Shafir and his Al Jazeera colleagues in another violent deliberate effort to silence truth tellers.”

“Part of the Gaza Tribunal is to strengthen the role of truth or conceptions of reality. And that is of strategic importance not only for Gaza but for the well-being of the world,” he added.

The tribunal is now preparing to raise the issue at the upcoming UN General Assembly in New York next month. “We hope to have laid the groundwork for doing that by the action of releasing this statement today,” Falk said.

What is Gaza Tribunal?

The Gaza Tribunal was launched in London in November 2024 by nearly 100 academics, intellectuals, human rights advocates, and civil society figures, citing “the total failure of the organized international community to implement international law” in Gaza.

Since then, it has convened multiple sessions, including a February 2025 chamber meeting in London and a strategy gathering in the Turkish metropolis Istanbul to brief the international public.

In May, the tribunal held a four-day public session in Sarajevo, Bosnia, hearing testimony from witnesses, journalists, academics, and experts.

That session culminated in the Sarajevo Declaration, which formally accused Israel of genocide, war crimes, and apartheid.

There will be a final hearing in October in Istanbul, where the “Jury of Conscience will deliver a moral verdict based on all testimonies and evidence,” noted another statement handed to Anadolu by the tribunal.

Palestinian PM: Interim body to govern Gaza after ceasefire

‘Gaza is an integral part of our state, and our government is the only executive body authorized to manage its affairs,’ Mohammad Mustafa says

An interim Palestinian committee will govern the Gaza Strip after a ceasefire is reached, Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa said on Monday.

“The Gaza Management Committee, which will be announced soon, is an interim committee under the authority of the Palestinian government,” Mustafa told a press conference with Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty at the Rafah border crossing with the Gaza Strip.

Also Read: 39 killed in Gaza as Israel expands offensive

“Gaza is an integral part of our state, and our government is the only executive body authorized to manage its affairs,” he added.

Mustafa stressed that the Israeli assault on Gaza “does not give any party, local or international, legitimacy to impose superior arrangements” on the enclave.

An interim Palestinian committee will govern the Gaza Strip after a ceasefire is reached, Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa said on Monday. PHOTO: ANADOLU

The premier said the Palestinian Authority is working with Egypt to prepare a conference for the reconstruction of Gaza “as soon as possible.”

Israel’s closure of the Rafah crossing to the entry of aid trucks into Gaza is “a message to the world that Israel is starving the Palestinian people to force their displacement,” Mustafa said.

On Aug. 8, the Israeli Security Cabinet approved Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s proposal to gradually occupy the Gaza Strip, beginning with Gaza City.

The plan envisions the takeover of Gaza City by displacing nearly 1 million residents to the south, surrounding the city, and then carrying out raids into its neighborhoods. A second phase would involve retaking refugee camps in central Gaza, much of which has already been reduced to rubble.

Israel has killed more than 61,900 Palestinians in Gaza since October 2023. The military campaign has devastated the enclave and brought it to the verge of famine.

Last November, the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza.

Israel also faces a genocide case at the International Court of Justice for its war on the enclave.