Category: 2. World

LONDON: Eight months after the fall of the Bashar Assad regime, the world is watching and hoping that Syria, despite its fragility, can avoid partition along sectarian lines.

The latest crisis erupted in mid-July in the southern province of Suweida. On July 12, clashes broke out between militias aligned with Druze leader Sheikh Hikmat Al-Hijri and pro-government Bedouin fighters, according to Human Rights Watch.

Within days, the fighting had escalated, with interim government forces deploying to the area. On July 14, Israel launched airstrikes on government buildings in Damascus and Syrian troops in Suweida with the stated aim of protecting the Druze community.

Although they constitute just three to five percent of Syria’s overall population, the Druze — a religious minority — make up the majority in Suweida, with further concentrations in Israel and the Israeli-occupied Golan.

Diplomatic maneuvers quickly followed. On July 26, Israeli and Syrian officials met in Paris for US-mediated talks about the security situation in southern Syria. Syria’s state-run Ekhbariya TV, citing a diplomatic source, said both sides agreed to continue discussions to maintain stability.

The human cost has been severe. Fighting in Suweida has displaced roughly 192,000 people and killed at least 1,120, including hundreds of civilians, according to the UN refugee agency, citing a UK-based monitoring group.

The bloodshed in Suweida has cast a long shadow over Syria’s post-Assad transition. “Syria is already fractured,” Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, told Arab News. “The Druze region is under Druze control and the much more important northeast is ruled by the Kurdish-led SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces).

“The real question is whether (President Ahmad) Al-Sharaa’s new government can bring them back under government control.”

Analysts say the surge in violence reflects the fragility of Syria’s political and social landscapes.

“This violence is not only disturbing; it’s also revealing a lot about the internal dynamics inside Syria,” Ibrahim Al-Assil, who leads the Syria Project for the Atlantic Council’s Middle East programs, told CNN last month.

“It also shows how fragile not only the ceasefires are but also the whole transition inside Syria.”

Al-Assil said the turmoil also tests the ability of Syria’s government, its society, and regional powers — including Israel — to guide the country toward stability.

Despite a US-mediated ceasefire declared on July 16, sporadic clashes persist. Residents report severe shortages of food, fuel and medicine, blaming a government blockade — an allegation Syria’s interim authorities deny.

Camille Otrakji, a Syrian-Canadian analyst, describes Syria as “deeply fragile” and so vulnerable to shocks that further stress could lead to breakdown.

He told Arab News that although “officials and their foreign allies scramble to bolster public trust,” it remains “brittle,” eroded by “daily missteps” and by abuses factions within the security forces.

From a rights perspective, institutional credibility will hinge on behavior. Adam Coogle, deputy Middle East director at Human Rights Watch, stresses the need for “professional, accountable security forces that represent and protect all communities without discrimination.”

Coogle said in a July 22 statement that de-escalation must go hand in hand with civilian protection, safe returns, restored services and rebuilding trust.

The battlefield map complicates the political storyline. Tensions between the SDF and government troops threaten an agreement reached in March to integrate the Kurdish-led coalition into the national military.

Talks were set back earlier this month when the two sides clashed, with both accusing the other of striking first. The interim government announced it was backing out of talks planned in Paris in objection to a recent conference calling for a decentralized, democratic constitution.

The August 8 meeting in the northeastern city of Hasakah brought together Kurds, Druze and Alawite figures and called for a new democratic constitution and a decentralized system that respects Syria’s cultural and religious diversity.

State-run news agency SANA quoted an official accusing the SDF-hosted event of having a separatist agenda and of inviting foreign intervention.

Meanwhile, religion and identity remain combustible. The coalition of rebel groups that ousted Assad in December was led by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, which was led by Al-Sharaa.

The insurgent pedigree of parts of the new administration fuels mistrust among communities already raw from years of war.

Meanwhile, fear continues to grip Alawite communities in coastal areas amid reports of ongoing revenge attacks. Assad belonged to the sect and promoted many in his government, making them a target since his downfall, even though most had nothing to do with his repression.

A UN-backed commission that investigated violence in coastal areas in March found that killings, torture, looting and burning of homes and tents primarily targeted Alawites and culminated in massacres.

These developments across the war-weary country have heightened fears of sectarian partition, though experts say the reality is more complex.

“The risk is real, but it is more complex than a straightforward territorial split,” Haian Dukhan, a lecturer in politics and international relations at the UK’s Teesside University, told Arab News.

“While Syria’s post-2024 landscape is marked by renewed sectarian and ethnic tensions, these divisions are not neatly mapped onto clear-cut borders.”

He noted that fragmentation is emerging not as formal borders but as “pockets of influence” — Druze autonomy in Suweida, Kurdish self-administration in the northeast, and unease among some Alawite communities.

“If violence persists,” Dukhan says, “these local power structures could harden into semi-permanent zones of authority, undermining the idea of a cohesive national state without producing formal secession.”

In Suweida, communal confidence is buoyed by a sense of agency — and by outside deterrence. Al-Hijri, the most prominent of Syria’s three Druze leaders, has resisted handing control of Suweida to Damascus.

“There is no consensus between us and the Damascus government,” he told American broadcaster NPR in April. Landis, for his part, argues that Israel’s military posture has been decisive in Suweida’s recent calculus.

Taken together, these incidents underscore the paradox of Syria’s “local” conflicts: even the most provincial skirmishes are shaped by regional red lines and international leverage.

Against this backdrop, Damascus has drawn closer to Turkiye. On August 14, Reuters reported the two had signed an agreement for Ankara to train and advise Syria’s new army and supply weapons and logistics.

“Damascus needs military assistance if it is to subdue the SDF and to find a way to thwart Israel,” Landis said. “Only Turkiye seems willing to provide such assistance.”

Although Landis believes it “unlikely that Turkiye can help Damascus against Israel, it is eager to help in taking on the Kurds.”

While the SDF has around 60,000 well-armed and trained fighters, it is still reliant on foreign backers. “If the US and Europeans are unwilling to defend them, Turkiye and Al-Sharaa’s growing forces will eventually subdue them,” said Landis.

For Ankara, the endgame is unchanged. Turkiye’s strategic aim is to prevent any form of Kurdish self-rule, which it views as a security threat, said Dukhan.

“By helping the government bring the Kurdish-led SDF into the national army and reopening trade routes, Turkiye is shaping relations between communities and Syria’s place in the region.”

Could there be more to Syria’s flareups than meets the eye? Ghassan Ibrahim, founder of the UK-based Global Arab Network, thinks so. “It looks like a sectarian conflict, but at the same time, it has a strong element of political ambition,” he told Arab News.

He pointed to the unrest in Suweida as one example. “On the surface, what happened there looks sectarian, but at its core, it’s more about political autonomy.”

Elaborating on the issue, he noted that Al-Hijri had long supported Assad and believed Suweida should have a degree of independent self-rule.

“When that ambition was crushed — by the (interim) government — things spiraled out of control, taking on a stronger sectarian appearance,” he said. “But I still see it mainly as a struggle for power — each side is trying to bring areas under its control by force.”

This perspective dovetails with Dukhan’s view that “sectarian identity in Syria is fluid and often intersects with economic interests, tribal loyalties and local security concerns.”

He noted that “even in areas dominated by one community, there are competing visions about the future.” That fluidity complicates any blueprint for stabilization. Even if front lines quiet, the political map could still splinter into de facto zones where different rules and loyalties prevail.

To Landis, the government’s current instinct is consolidation. He believes the leadership “has chosen to use force to unify Syria,” which he adds “has proven successful” in the coastal region “because the Alawites are not united and had largely given up their weapons.”

Success by force in one region, however, does not guarantee the model will travel. In Suweida, Israel’s tripwire and Druze cohesion have raised the price of any government offensive. In the northeast, the SDF’s numbers, organization, and foreign ties complicate any quick military integration.

If raw power cannot produce a durable settlement, what could? For Dukhan, the transitional government’s challenge is “to prevent local self-rule from drifting into de facto partition by offering credible political inclusion and security guarantees.”

That formula implies a real negotiation over autonomy, representation, and local policing — sensitive subjects that arouse deep suspicion in Damascus and among nationalists fearful of a slippery slope to breakup.

Landis agrees that compromise is possible, but unlikely. “Al-Sharaa has the option of compromising with Syria’s minorities, who want to retain a large degree of autonomy and to be able to ensure their own safety from abuse and massacres,” he said. “It is unlikely that he will concede such powers.”

Still, experts say Syria can avoid permanent fracture if all sides — domestic and foreign — work toward reconciliation.

As Syria’s conflict involves multiple domestic factions and foreign powers, Ibrahim said international actors could foster peace by pressuring their allies on the ground. Responsibility, he stressed, lies with all sides.

“The way forward is cooperation from all,” he said. “For example, Israel could pressure Sheikh Al-Hijri and make it clear that it’s not here to create a ‘Hijristan’.”

Ibrahim was referring to the Druze leader’s purported ambition to carve out a sovereign state in Suweida.

Otrakji said that “after 14 years of conflict, Syria is now wide open — a hub not just for diplomats and business envoys, but also for military, intelligence and public relations operatives.”

The previous regime was rigid and combative, he said, but the new leadership “seems intent on pleasing everyone.”

That balancing act carries dangers — overpromising at home, underdelivering on reforms, and alienating multiple constituencies at once.

Otrakji stressed that without full implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 2254, Syria will remain trapped “on a dizzying political rollercoaster” and in uncertainty.

The UNSC reaffirmed on August 10 its call for an inclusive, Syrian-led political process to safeguard rights and enable Syrians to determine their future.

Global Arab Network’s Ibrahim concluded that Syria does not need regime change, but rather reconciliation, education and a leadership capable of dispelling the idea that this is a sectarian war.

Sectarian and religious leaders, he said, “must understand that Syria will remain one unified, central state with some flexibility — but nothing beyond that.”

 

Authorities in Bagh, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, have ordered the temporary closure of all schools and educational institutions following a high flood alert issued by the Meteorological Department.

A notification stated that both public and private schools in the district will remain closed on August 18 and 19, as a precautionary measure to protect students and staff.

The Met Office has predicted heavy rain and thunderstorms across several districts, including Muzzafarabad, Rawalakot, Bagh, Haveli, Kotli, Mirpur and Bhimber over the coming days.

These weather conditions can lead to flash flooding and landslides, particularly in hilly areas.

Additionally, heavy rainfall is expected in Islamabad within the next 24hours. Officials emphasised that the closure of schools in Bagh is a necessary step to mitigate risks as the region prepares for the ongoing monsoon season.

Temperatures in major cities recorded this morning include: Islamabad at 26°C, Lahore and Peshawar at 28°C, Karachi at 29°C, Quetta and Gilgit at 21°C, Murree at 17°C, and Muzaffarabad at 23°C.

In Indian occupied Kashmir, the weather forecast indicates cloudy conditions with the chances of rain and thunderstorms in Srinagar, Jammu, Leh, Pulwama, Anantnag, Shopian and Baramula.

Temperatures recorded this morning were Srinagar, Pulwama, and Baramula at 18°C, Jammu at 26°C, Leh at 10°C, and Anantnag and Shopian at 19°C.

Baghaei told reporters that Tehran remained ready to take steps to reassure the world about the peaceful nature of its nuclear program, but only if sanctions were lifted.

“We are prepared to adopt a series of measures to provide assurances about the peaceful nature of our nuclear program, conditional upon the removal of oppressive sanctions,” he said at his weekly press briefing.

Baghaei dismissed speculation about third-party mediation in its relations with the UN nuclear watchdog, saying, “Our relationship with the Agency is direct. Last week, one of its deputies visited Tehran. We also had discussions on drafting a cooperation framework,” he said. “Our representative in Vienna is in constant contact with the Agency.”

‘European have no right for snapback’

The spokesperson also criticized Britain, France, and Germany over threats to use the so-called snapback mechanism that could restore UN sanctions.

“The very act of Europe using this tool as a means of pressure against Iran is an illegal move,” Baghaei said.

“The three European countries failed to fulfill their obligations under the 2015 nuclear deal, and after the US and Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities, they neither condemned it nor even tried to provide a logical explanation of their positions. We believe the three European countries have no right to use this mechanism.”

He added: “We never cut off negotiations with these three countries. They must decide whether they want to play a constructive role or a negative role aligned with the interests of the Zionist regime.”

Responding to a question on whether Iran might consider extending the deadline set by Britain, France and Germany in their recent letter to the United Nations, Baghaei said Tehran had no such plans. “The Islamic Republic has no program to extend the snapback mechanism,” he said.

His comments followed a letter sent last week by the foreign ministers of the three European powers — known as the E3 — to UN Secretary-General António Guterres and the Security Council, warning that they were prepared to reimpose international sanctions unless Tehran resumed nuclear negotiations with Washington and restored cooperation with the IAEA before the end of August, or accepted an extension.

Caucasus concerns

On regional issues, Baghaei said Iran closely monitored developments in the South Caucasus.

“We have been very clear that we are sensitive to the presence of extra-regional actors,” he said.

“We conveyed this explicitly to our friends in Armenia and listened to their explanations. For us, the unblocking of routes must not harm internationally recognized borders or contradict Armenia’s national sovereignty. We are monitoring the situation carefully and will raise concerns whenever necessary.”

Last week, US President Donald Trump brokered a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which gives Washington leasing rights to develop the Zangezur transit route connecting Azerbaijan with its exclave, Nakhchivan. It will be renamed the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP).

Epstein case not linked to talks

Asked about reports linking the Jeffrey Epstein case to negotiations with Washington, Baghaei said Iran would not speculate.

“The so-called Epstein case is an issue that is not limited to the United States; many officials from different countries were implicated. We do not engage in speculation about the motives of US officials. What matters to us are their actions and Iran’s interests,” he said.

Australia barred far-right Religious Zionism MK Simcha Rothman from visiting the country for a series of appearances, Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke said Monday, accusing the politician of intending to “spread division.”

Israel later responded in anger, revoking the residency visas of Australia’s representatives to the Palestinian Authority and implementing other steps.

Rothman, a far-right lawmaker, had been slated to make a series of appearances at Jewish schools and synagogues and meet with victims of a recent wave of antisemitic attacks, according to the Australian Jewish Association, which invited him and confirmed that Rothman’s visa had been cancelled.

“If you are coming to Australia to spread a message of hate and division, we don’t want you here,” Burke said. “Australia will be a country where everyone can be safe, and feel safe.”

As an automatic condition of the visa cancellation, Rothman is unable to travel to Australia for three years.

It was unclear which, if any, specific actions or comments by Rothman had triggered the move by Canberra.

However, in a statement, Rothman said the decision was “a surrender to terrorism and antisemitism that is rampant on the streets of Australia,” and had been made due to the Knesset’s vote last month to pass a motion in favor of annexing the West Bank, a symbolic move by the parliament that is non-binding.

He also said that he had been invited to speak as his views “reflect the mainstream of Israeli society: that Hamas has shown that Israel must defeat it, and that a Palestinian state poses a danger to the existence of the State of Israel.”

Rothman claimed in an interview with the Kan public broadcaster on Monday that the Australian government was “threatened by Islamist jihadists about what will happen if I am allowed to visit, and so instead of worrying about public order, instead of standing firm against terror, they surrendered to terror.”

According to the AJA, the visa was canceled hours before Rothman was slated to fly to Australia.

“This is a viciously antisemitic move from a government that is obsessed with targeting the Jewish community and Israel,” AJA head Robert Gregory said in a statement posted online by the group, which describes itself as a center-right organization.

Gregory said Jews should think twice before visiting Australia, claiming that increasing numbers of Australian Jews are looking into emigrating.

“Israel is fully justified in taking strong measures in response to this, and we have briefed contacts in the Trump Administration who are also concerned about events in Australia,” he added.

Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (C) and members of the local Jewish community visiting the torched Adass Israel Synagogue in Melbourne on December 10, 2024. (DEPARTMENT OF PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET / AFP)

Hours after the announcement, Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar decided to revoke the residency visas of Australia’s representatives to the Palestinian Authority, according to a statement from his spokesperson.

In addition, Sa’ar instructed Israel’s embassy in Canberra “to carefully examine every official Australian visa request for entry into Israel,” the statement added.

Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar addresses a joint press conference with his Lithuanian counterpart at the Foreign Ministry in Vilnius on July 1, 2025. (Petras Malukas / AFP)

The decisions, which were presented to the Australian ambassador a short while ago, “come in response to Australia’s decisions to recognize a ‘Palestinian state’” in September, as well as its refusal earlier today, “without any justification, to grant entry visas to a series of Israeli figures, among them former Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked and Knesset Constitution, Law and Justice Committee chairman MK Simcha Rothman,” the statement continued.

“At a time when antisemitism in Australia is running rampant — including incidents of violence against Jews and Jewish institutions — the Australian government has chosen to inflame it further, by falsely claiming that visits by Israeli figures would disturb public order and harm Australia’s Muslim population,” Sa’ar added in the statement.

Coalition condemnation

Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir condemned Australia’s decision on X, calling it “a historical stain and a shame for the Australian government” and criticizing what he calls “the gloating cries of Israeli left-wing activists, the collaborators of Hamas, and those who defame Israel worldwide.”

Diaspora Affairs Minister Amichai Chikli, also in a post on X in English, argued that barring Rothman from entry is “a direct extension of [Australia’s] disgraceful choice to honor the rapists and murderers of Hamas,” reflecting “a broken moral compass, discrimination, and a grave assault on free speech.”

He warned that Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is “wrong to think appeasement of Islamist terror will advance Australia” and said such policies risk following “Britain’s disastrous path.” It was unclear exactly what Chikli was referring to with regards to the UK.

Rothman, who heads the Knesset’s Constitution, Law and Justice Committee, is one of the architects of the controversial overhaul of the judicial system being pushed by the Israeli government.

He is a member of Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s far-right Religious Zionism party. In June, Smotrich and Ben Gvir were both sanctioned by Australia, alongside the UK, Canada, New Zealand and Norway, for having “incited extremist violence” against Palestinians in the West Bank.

Smotrich openly calls for the resettlement of Gaza and said in May that Israel will not withdraw from the Strip even if there is another hostage deal, telling Israelis to embrace the word “occupation.”

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and Knesset Constitution, Law and Justice Committee Chairman MK Simcha Rothman hold a press conference in the Knesset, March 21, 2023. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)

Canberra has taken an increasingly critical stance toward Israel in recent weeks, including announcing plans to recognize a Palestinian state next month, alongside a number of other Western nations.

There are also tensions between the government and Australia’s Jewish community amid a wave of antisemitic attacks.

In June, Australia barred pro-Israel activist and influencer Hillel Fuld because his presence would constitute a risk to “health, safety or good order,” Burke’s office said at the time.

Last year, it blocked former justice minister Ayelet Shaked for similar reasons.

In July, Canberra canceled US rapper Kanye West’s visa over his song glorifying Nazi leader Adolf Hitler.

Ariela Karmel contributed to this report.

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Updated On: Mon, 18 Aug 2025

12:03:21 PKT

MOSCOW (Reuters) – The death toll from an unexplained blast last week at a production facility in Russia’s Ryazan region has jumped to at least 20 dead with another 134 people injured, local emergency services said on Monday.

Pavel Malkov, governor of the Ryazan region that lies just southeast of Moscow, said on Friday that the incident had been triggered by a fire breaking out inside a workshop at the factory.

But it was unclear from Russian media reports what caused the fire or what exactly the factory was producing. Official Russian sources gave no details beyond efforts to find and treat the injured.

“As of August 18, 20 people died as a result of the emergency incident,” the local emergency service headquarters said in a post on Telegram.

“There are 134 injured, of which 31 patients are in hospitals in Ryazan and Moscow, while 103 patients are undergoing outpatient treatment.”