Category: 2. World

Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun received American diplomat Thomas Barrack in Beirut on Monday and gave him the Lebanese state’s reply to a proposal from the United States about disarming Hezbollah.

Barrack, ambassador to Turkiye and special envoy for Syria, said Lebanon’s response was “something spectacular” and that he was “unbelievably satisfied” by the reply, which has not been made public as of yet.

The visit comes amid continued Israeli attacks on alleged Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, which have killed civilians, since a ceasefire went into effect on November 27, 2024.

Here’s what you need to know about the visit and what it means for Lebanon and Israel:

Why did the US envoy visit Lebanon?

Not for the summer weather.

Barrack went to receive the Lebanese state’s official response to a US proposal, delivered to Lebanon on June 19, to disarm the Hezbollah group.

Under the terms of a ceasefire deal with Israel from last November, Hezbollah was to withdraw its fighters from south of the Litani River – which runs across south Lebanon and up into the Bekaa Valley – and turn over military infrastructure and bases there.

However, according to diplomatic and political sources with knowledge of the agreement, the language was purposefully undefined, leaving it open to interpretation by both sides.

The US and Israel have chosen to interpret the ceasefire as contingent on Hezbollah’s complete disarmament in the entirety of the country.

Barrack insinuated in his statement after the meeting that support for Lebanon would be contingent on the Lebanese government acting in line with what he said was a “region moving at Mach speed”, although he did not specify what it was moving towards.

Over the past two years, Israel has waged war on Gaza, Iran, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen, with full US support.

Developments have often been touted as victories against Iran and its allies in the region.

What was the Lebanese government’s response to the US demand?

The response has not yet been made public.

But reports indicate the government demanded that Israel withdraw from all Lebanese territories, including five points it occupied during the recent ceasefire and areas it stayed in after the 2000 withdrawal from southern Lebanon.

It also reportedly called on the US to pressure Israel to:

• abide by the ceasefire,
• return Lebanese prisoners it took, and
• adhere to United Nations  Security Council Resolution 1701, which calls for a cessation of hostilities, for Hezbollah to withdraw from south of the Litani, and for financial and economic reforms, among other provisions.

Barrack said he received a seven-page reply from Aoun’s team and had not yet had time to study it, but that he was satisfied.

His comments also seemed to suggest Lebanon needs to meet certain expectations if it wants US support, talking about Lebanon turning over a new leaf, similar to neighbouring Syria, which has indicated it is willing to have a peace agreement with Israel.

“If you don’t want change, it’s no problem,” Barrack said, before adding: “The rest of the region is moving at high speed.”

Barrack did not specify if US support would be in the form of reconstruction financing – the World Bank says Lebanon needs $11bn for recovery following the latest Israeli aggression – or in terms of reining in Israel, which continues daily attacks on southern Lebanon and occasionally on Beirut and its periphery.

What are the demands for Hezbollah to disarm?

There are external and internal demands.

The external demands come mostly from the US and Israel. Before Hezbollah was battered in this latest war and lost much of its military leadership, Israel saw the group as a military threat.

Many Gulf states have also opposed Hezbollah and its benefactor Iran’s influence over Lebanon and the Levant.

Internally, Lebanon’s president and prime minister, as well as a variety of political parties and figures, want Hezbollah to disarm and for the Lebanese army and state to control the use of force and decisions of war and peace.

In much of Lebanon’s post-civil war period (1990 onwards), Hezbollah has been Lebanon’s political and military hegemon. Its support comes mostly from the Shia community, and most elected Shia officials are members of Hezbollah or their allies, the Amal Movement.

The group’s critics say the party has isolated Lebanon from good relations with regional and international countries and has grown from a party outside the corrupt Lebanese political system to that system’s protector.

What pressures are there on the Lebanese government to comply?

The US seems to have become the only power that can rein in Israel’s attacks, which are undermining the new government’s efforts at reform and at helping a segment of the population that feels they are not being properly supported by the state.

Historically, Hezbollah filled the void left by the state, while at times undermining the state’s attempts to fill that void.

Further pressure is on the country because it is badly in need of foreign investment and aid for reconstruction, which the US has signalled may be tied to disarming Hezbollah.

Here, Hezbollah seems to agree with the Lebanese government and has expressed some willingness to cooperate, as it knows many of its supporters need their homes or villages liberated or rebuilt.

What are the obstacles to Hezbollah disarming?

There are a few.

One is the continued Israeli attacks and presence in south Lebanon, in the five points that the Israeli military occupied during the ceasefire period and the continued occupation of the Shebaa Farms and Kfarchouba Hills.

Few in Hezbollah or among their supporters believe the group should disarm as long as Lebanese territory is under occupation or attack.

“We cannot be asked to soften our stance or lay down arms while [Israeli] aggression continues,” Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem told supporters in Beirut’s southern suburbs on Sunday for Ashura, an important Shia commemoration.

Hezbollah says it is unwilling to disarm as long as Israeli presence remains in the south of the country and as long as the fear of invasion exists. Israel invaded Lebanon in 1978 and again in 1982, occupying the south until Hezbollah drove them out in 2000.

They reinvaded last year.

Hezbollah has also raised concerns about the Lebanon-Syria border, where clashes erupted earlier this year.

While both countries said they want border delineation, a resumption of tensions is not out of the question.

What about Israel?

That is the big question.

Whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will heed any pressures from the US to stop attacking Lebanon and to implement fully the terms of the agreements between the two countries remains to be seen.

It is unclear if Barrack’s visit to Beirut and the Lebanese state’s response had any effect on a meeting between Trump and Netanyahu in Washington, DC, on Monday.

What is clear from Lebanon is that it is hoping the US will get the Israelis to stop attacking the country, enforce the ceasefire, and support the Lebanese state as it attempts to complete the fragile task of bringing Hezbollah’s weapons under state control without isolating the Shia community from the nation-building project.

Search teams plodded through muddy riverbanks and flew aircraft over flood-ravaged central Texas on Monday as hopes dimmed of finding survivors among dozens still missing from a disaster that has claimed at least 96 lives, many of them children.

However, some sources said the death toll is actually near 100. 

Three days after a torrential predawn downpour transformed the Guadalupe River into a raging, killer torrent, a Christian girls’ summer camp devastated by the flash flood confirmed that 27 campers and counselors were among those who had perished.

Ten girls and a camp counselor were still unaccounted for, officials said on Monday, as search-and-rescue personnel faced the potential of more heavy rains and thunderstorms while clawing through tons of muck-laden debris.

The bulk of the death toll from Friday’s calamity was concentrated in and around the riverfront town of Kerrville and the grounds of Camp Mystic, situated in a swath of Texas Hill Country known as “flash flood alley.”

By Monday afternoon, the bodies of 84 flood victims – 56 adults and 28 children – were recovered in Kerr County, most of them in the county seat of Kerrville, according to the local sheriff.

As of midday Sunday, state and local officials said 12 other flood-related fatalities had been confirmed across five neighboring south-central Texas counties, and that 41 other people were still listed as missing outside Kerr County.

The New York Times, one of numerous news media outlets publishing varying death tolls, reported that at least 104 people had been killed across the entire flood zone.

Debate also intensified over questions about how state and local officials reacted to weather alerts forecasting the possibility of a flash flood and the lack of an early warning siren system that might have mitigated the disaster.

On Monday, Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick vowed that the state would “step up” to pay for installing a flash-flood warning system in Kerrville by next summer if local governments “can’t afford it.”

“There should have been sirens,” Patrick said in a Fox News interview. “Had we had sirens here along this area…it’s possible that we would have saved some lives.”

Rough week ahead

While authorities continued to hold out hope that some of the missing would turn up alive, the likelihood of finding more survivors diminished as time passed.

“This will be a rough week,” Kerrville Mayor Joe Herring Jr said at a briefing on Monday morning.

Camp Mystic, a nearly century-old Christian girls’ retreat on the banks of the Guadalupe was at the epicenter of the disaster.

“Our hearts are broken alongside our families that are enduring this unimaginable tragedy,” the camp said in a statement on Monday.

Richard “Dick” Eastland, 70, Mystic’s co-owner and director, died trying to save children at his camp from the flood, local news media reported. He and his wife, Tweety Eastland, have owned the camp since 1974, according to its website.

“If he wasn’t going to die of natural causes, this was the only other way, saving the girls that he so loved and cared for,” Eastland’s grandson, George Eastland, wrote on Instagram.

Mishaps in the sky

Authorities lost one of their aviation assets on Monday when a privately operated drone collided in restricted airspace over the Kerr County flood zone with a search helicopter, forcing the chopper to make an emergency landing. No injuries were reported, but the aircraft was put out of commission, according to the Kerr County Sheriff’s Office.

National Weather Service forecasts on Monday predicted that up to 4 more inches of rain could douse the Texas Hill Country, with isolated areas possibly receiving as much as 10 inches (25 cm).

Officials said the region remained especially vulnerable to renewed flooding due to the saturated condition of the soil and mounds of debris already strewn around the river channel.

State emergency management officials had warned on Thursday, ahead of the July 4 holiday, that parts of central Texas faced the possibility of flash floods based on National Weather Service forecasts.

But twice as much rain as was predicted ended up falling over two branches of the Guadalupe just upstream of the fork where they converge, sending all of that water racing into the single river channel where it slices through Kerrville, City Manager Dalton Rice said.

Rice said the outcome was unforeseen and unfolded in a matter of two hours, leaving too little time to conduct a precautionary mass evacuation without the risk of placing more people in harm’s way.

Authorities in flood-prone areas like the Guadalupe River basin also must balance the odds of misjudging a catastrophe against not wanting to “cry wolf,” he said.

Still, a team of European scientists said climate change has helped fuel warmer, wetter weather patterns that make extreme rain and flood events more likely.

“Events of this kind are no longer exceptional in a warming world,” said Davide Faranda, of the French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS). “Climate change loads the dice toward more frequent and more intense floods.”

The Houston Chronicle and New York Times reported that Kerr County officials had considered installing a flood-warning system about eight years ago but dropped the effort as too costly after failing to secure a $1 million grant to fund the project.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday he has nominated Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, presenting the US president with a letter he sent to the prize committee.

The move comes as Israel continues its onslaught on Gaza, which has so far killed 57,523 Palestinians. Last year, the UN-backed International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu, citing allegations of war crimes and crimes against humanity. The court said he, along with ex-defence minister Yoav Gallant, “intentionally and knowingly deprived the civilian population in Gaza of objects indispensable to their survival”, including food, water, medicine, fuel, and electricity.

“He’s forging peace as we speak, in one country, in one region after the other,” Netanyahu said at a dinner with Trump at the White House.

Trump has received multiple Nobel Peace Prize nominations from supporters and loyal lawmakers over the years and has made no secret of his irritation at missing out on the prestigious award.

The Republican has complained that he had been overlooked by the Norwegian Nobel Committee for his mediating role in conflicts between India and Pakistan, as well as Serbia and Kosovo.

In 2024, he insisted that he was more deserving of a Nobel than ex-president Barack Obama, and complained how it was unfair that “anybody else” but him would have been honoured with one.

In June, Pakistan had also decided to formally recommend Trump for the coveted prize, given his role in de-escalating the India-Pakistan conflict when both neighbours stepped back from the brink of war after US mediation.

However, as the US joined Israel’s war with Iran and launched attacks on three Iranian nuclear facilities, Pakistani lawmakers, activists, authors and ex-diplomats criticised the move. A resolution was also submitted in the Senate by the Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-Fazl to rescind the decision but led to no tangible outcome as Pakistan had not officially submitted the nomination.

A day earlier, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said that Trump has delivered “wins for the American people” and referenced
Pakistan’s nomination following the US-brokered ceasefire.

During a press briefing, she said, “Pakistan nominated President Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize in recognition of his decisive diplomatic intervention to prevent a nuclear war between India and Pakistan.”

Trump has also demanded credit for “keeping peace” between Egypt and Ethiopia and brokering the Abraham Accords, a series of agreements aiming to normalise relations between Israel and several Arab nations.

He campaigned for office as a “peacemaker” who would use his negotiating skills to quickly end conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, although both conflicts are still raging more than five months into his presidency.

Benjamin Netanyahu told Donald Trump that he would nominate him for the Nobel peace prize on Monday, as the two leaders met for the first time since the US launched strikes on Iran’s nuclear program as part of a short-lived war between Israel and Iran.

Trump was expected to press Netanyahu to agree to a ceasefire in Israel’s 21-month-old war against Hamas in Gaza amid an outcry over the humanitarian cost of an offensive that has led to nearly 60,000 deaths, most of them Palestinian.

Israeli and Hamas negotiators met for indirect talks for the first time in six weeks in Qatar on Monday. While both sides have spoken positively about the prospects for a ceasefire, a number of crucial negotiating points remain including guarantees from the Israeli side that the war would not continue and Netanyahu’s insistence that Hamas be banished from Gaza for good.

Before a dinner in the Blue Room at the White House, Trump was asked whether he believed that Palestinians should be forcibly removed from Gaza, amid reports that Israel has laid out plans to force all Palestinians in Gaza into a camp on the ruins of Rafah – a plan that has been criticised as a blueprint for ethnic cleansing. Trump directed Netanyahu to answer the question.

“It’s called free choice,” said Netanyahu, who is wanted by the international criminal court for alleged war crimes relating to the Gaza war. “You know, if people want to stay, they can stay, but if they want to leave, they should be able to leave.”

“It shouldn’t a prison,” Netanyahu said. “It should be an open place and give people a free choice. We’re working with the United States very closely about finding countries that will seek to realize what they always say they wanted – to give the Palestinians a better future. And … I think we’re getting close to finding several countries.”

At the beginning of the meeting, Netanyahu presented Trump with a letter that he said he had sent to a committee for the Nobel peace prize commending Trump’s efforts to end conflicts in the Middle East.

“I want to express the appreciation and admiration not only of all Israelis, but of the Jewish people,” Netanyahu said before presenting the letter. “You deserve it,” Netanyahu added.

“Coming from you in particular, this is very meaningful,” Trump said.

It was the second high-profile nomination for the president: last month Pakistan said it would recommend Trump for the prize.

During the meeting, Trump also said that he “hoped” that the US would not strike Iran again.

“They want to work something out,” he said. “They’re very different now than they were two weeks ago.”

He declined to give a date for upcoming talks with Iran, but told reporters they would find out more details tomorrow.

Asked about Russia’s war in Ukraine, Trump suggested that he would resume weapons shipments to the Ukrainian army, although the White House had recently confirmed it had halted some weapons deliveries due to a Pentagon review of dwindling US munitions stocks.

In impromptu remarks, Trump said he was “not happy with president Putin at all.” “I’m disappointed, frankly, that President Putin hasn’t stopped,” he said. “I’m not happy about it.”

“We’re going to send some more weapons” to Ukraine, he continued. “We have to. They have to be able to defend themselves. They’re getting hit very hard now. They’re getting hit very hard. We’re going to have to send more weapons.”

Trump claimed during the meeting that Hamas “want to meet and they want to have that ceasefire.” But he did not share any additional details on preparations for a ceasefire, and when asked about a two-state solution with the Palestinians, directed the question to Netanyahu, who repeated Israeli insistences that they would maintain a “security guarantee” over territories like the Gaza Strip.

“I think the Palestinians should have all the powers to govern themselves, but none of the powers to threaten us,” Netanyahu said. “And that means that certain powers like overall security will always remain in our hands.”

“I think we can work out a peace between us and the entire Middle East with President Trump’s leadership and by working together,” he continued. “I think we can establish a very, very broad piece that will include all our neighbours.”

Before departing for Washington on Sunday, Netanyahu said he was confident a deal could be achieved and that Israeli negotiators had been given clear instructions to achieve a ceasefire – but only with conditions that Israel has already agreed.

Sources in the prime minister’s entourage described the talks in Qatar as positive, according to Israel’s military radio station and an Israeli official quoted by Reuters. Palestinian officials were more downbeat and said initial meetings on Sunday had ended inconclusively.

Netanyahu had met with Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and secretary of state Marco Rubio earlier on Monday. He is expected to remain in Washington to meet with vice-president JD Vance and senior officials, including house speaker Mike Johnson.

CNN
 — 

President Donald Trump cranked up the pressure Monday on America’s trading partners, firing off letters to heads of several countries, informing them of their new tariff rate. But at the same time, Trump took some of the edge off by signing an executive action Monday to extend the date for all “reciprocal” tariffs, with the exception of China, to August 1.

Those “reciprocal” tariffs were expected to go into effect Wednesday. In some cases, the letters Trump sent specify new “reciprocal” tariff rates that are higher or lower compared to April levels.

Trump was not definitive when asked if the new August 1 deadline was “firm” ahead of a dinner at the White House on Monday night. “I would say firm, but not 100% firm. If they call up and they say would like to do something a different way, we’re going to be open to that.”

Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and South Korea’s President Lee Jae-myung were the first recipients of Trump’s letters.

Both countries will face a 25% tariff come August 1, according to the letters, but both nations said on Tuesday they plan to engage in further talks with the US, with Japan saying it was working towards a trade deal.

Trump announced similar letters were sent to Malaysia, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Myanmar and Laos, informing their leaders of new tariff rates as high as 40%.

Then later in the day, he posted seven new letters sent to leaders of Tunisia, Bosnia and Herzegovina (which is set to reach a 30% tariff), Indonesia, Bangladesh, Serbia, Cambodia and Thailand, putting the running total at 14 letters delivered on Monday.

In the letters, Trump said he takes particular issue with the trade deficits the United States runs with them, meaning America buys more goods from there compared to the amount that American businesses export to those countries. Trump also said the tariffs would be set in response to other policies that he deems are impeding American goods from being sold abroad.

He encouraged country leaders to manufacture goods in the United States to avoid tariffs.

This comes ahead of his initial 12:01 a.m. ET July 9 deadline for countries to make deals or face the threat of higher tariffs. That date marks the end of the pause on “reciprocal” tariffs, which briefly went into place in April. Since then, impacted countries have faced a minimum 10% tariff.

In all 14 letters, Trump threatened to raise tariffs even higher than the specified rates if a country retaliated against the United States with tariffs of their own. Trump said these rates would be “separate from all Sectoral Tariffs,” meaning, for instance, the new tariff won’t be stacked on top of the current auto tariff of 25%, the White House confirmed. That would apply to any future sector-specific tariffs, too, a White House official said.

Despite the many trade qualms Trump has broadcast as having with the European Union, prompting him to threaten higher tariffs on several occasions, the trading bloc appears to have not received a letter from him.

“We’re not going to comment on letters that we haven’t received,” Olof Gill, a European Commission spokesperson, told reporters Monday afternoon.

“My understanding is that we can now expect an extension of the current status quo until August 1 to give further time for the EU and the US to reach an agreement in principle on a mutually beneficial agreement that works for both sides,” Simon Harris, Irish Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade, said in a statement on Monday.

Many of the nations that have received the letters have welcomed the extension of the deadline, and appear eager to continue discussions with the US to strike better deals.

Japan’s Ishiba convened a cabinet task force on Tuesday morning and voiced Tokyo’s deep “regret that the U.S. government has imposed additional tariffs and announced plans to raise tariff rates.” He said the country would continue negotiations with the United States to seek a bilateral trade deal that benefits both countries.

South Korea’s finance ministry said in a statement that it would monitor developments closely, but warned that if market fluctuations become “excessive” the government would “take immediate and bold action in accordance with its contingency plans,” though it did not immediately detail what that action may entail.

Thailand is still facing tariffs at the higher end, at 36%, but its finance minister Pichai Chunhavajira told reporters on Tuesday that he’s confident Bangkok will be able to negotiate a more competitive levy, saying it has submitted a proposal to the US in “good faith.”

Malaysia, facing a 25% tariff rate, also plans to “continue discussions” with the US to reach a “balanced and mutually beneficial trade agreement,” its trade ministry said on Tuesday, Reuters reported.

South Africa’s president Cyril Ramaphosa said diplomatic efforts would continue, but urged local businesses to accelerate their diversification efforts, in a post on X. Ramaphosa also said that the US had based the 30% tariff rate for South Africa on an “inaccurate representation” of trade data.

CNN has reached out to the foreign ministries of Indonesia, Cambodia, Myanmar and Kazakhstan, and the commerce ministry of Bangladesh for comment.

Collectively, the US bought $465 billion worth of goods last year from the 14 countries that received letters on Monday, according to US Commerce Department figures. Japan and South Korea, America’s sixth- and seventh-largest trading partners, accounted for 60% of that, shipping a total of $280 billion worth of goods to the US last year.

The prospect of higher tariffs on goods could translate into higher prices for American consumers. Among the top goods America imports from South Korea and Japan, for example, are cars, auto parts, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and machinery. Trump has placed or threatened to levy industry-specific tariffs on many of these goods.

In April, Japan was set to face a 24% tariff, while South Korea was set to face a 25% tariff. Now, both face the same 25% rate.

While the other countries ship less to the US compared to Japan and South Korea, in many cases they are among the top foreign sources of goods.

For instance, South Africa, which is set to face 30% tariffs, accounted for roughly half of the platinum the US imported from other countries last year and was the top foreign supplier of it.

Malaysia, which is set to face a 24% tariff versus the 25% rate Trump announced in April, was the second-top source of semiconductors shipped to the US last year, with Americans purchasing $18 billion worth of them from there.

Meanwhile, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Cambodia are top manufacturing hubs for apparel and accessories.

Trump’s letter to Cambodia’s prime minister threatened a tariff rate of 36%, 13 percentage points lower than what had been in place in April, before it was paused.

Stocks dropped lower midday after Trump announced the first batch of letters and continued to fall as Trump announced tariffs of varying rates from 25% to 40% on countries including Myanmar, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, Laos and South Africa.

Despite Trump saying country-specific tariffs won’t be stacked on top of sectorial ones, shares of auto companies that have a heavy manufacturing presence in Japan and South Korea declined sharply. US-listed shares in major Japanese automakers Toyota, Nissan and Honda dropped by 4%, 7.16% and 3.86%, respectively.

Those declines, however, may reflect the increased likelihood of Trump potentially raising tariffs on cars from the two countries should they retaliate against the general 25% tariffs, were they to go into effect, by slapping higher tariffs on American goods.

“These Tariffs may be modified, upward or downward, depending on our relationship,” Trump ended the letters before signing off.

The Dow closed lower by 422 points, or 0.94%. The S&P 500 fell 0.79% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.92%. The three major indexes posted their worst day in about three weeks. Meanwhile, stocks in Asia started Tuesday trading flat.

WASHINGTON: Although US President Donald Trump has brushed off Elon Musk’s plans for a new political party as “ridiculous”, the tech billionaire’s announcement underscored the threat the disaffected former ally poses to US Republicans defending paper-thin congressional majorities.

Musk’s weekend launch of the “America Party” came in the wake of Trump signing into law a sprawling domestic policy bill that the tech mogul has slammed over estimates that it will balloon the deficit.

The Tesla founder has been light on policy detail, but is expected to target a handful of House and Senate seats in next year’s midterm elections where the sitting Republican voted for Trump’s bill after preaching fiscal responsibility.

“[Elon] Musk’s America Party is a wild card that could upend the midterms in 2026, particularly for Republicans,” said political analyst Matt Shoemaker, a former Republican congressional candidate and an ex-intelligence officer.

“With bare majorities in Congress, the Republicans should be worried.”

Musk, the world’s richest person, had teased the idea of a new party for weeks, running an informal social media poll in June that showed 80% support among 5.6 million respondents.

Unlike previous third parties, his would have almost limitless resources, and a talisman with a large constituency of young American men who see him as a maverick genius and a superstar.

“Musk’s brand appeals to disaffected independents and younger, tech-savvy voters who might otherwise break for Republicans in swing districts,” Shoemaker told AFP.

Lower favourability than Trump

With a personal wealth estimated at $405 billion, Musk has already demonstrated that he is willing to spend big on politics, lavishing $277 million on Trump’s 2024 campaign.

Yet a more recent foray into Wisconsin politics — he spent $20 million only to see his candidate for the state supreme court lose handily — has underlined the limits of wealth and celebrity in politics.

And then there is the political difficulty of building support in the American heartland, among voters who are not part of Musk’s Silicon Valley “tech bro” bubble.

Time magazine۔s 2021 Person of the Year was once liked by a broad cross-section of Americans, but he saw his numbers plunge after joining the Trump administration as the president۔s costcutter-in-chief.

Musk’s net favorability in the most recent rating published by Nate Silver, one of the most respected US pollsters, is underwater at -18.1, compared with a slightly less subaquatic -6.6 for Trump.

“While you don’t want to paint with too broad a brush, the Republican base and MAGA movement are fairly inseparable in today’s political climate,” said Flavio Hickel, associate professor of political science at Washington College in Maryland.

“And their support for Trump has been unwavering despite recent controversies. It۔s hard to imagine any political project associated with Musk siphoning off votes from individuals who approve of [Donald] Trump,” he added.

History, record of third parties

While multiple Republicans and Democrats have switched to independent, wins for third parties have been rare in modern US history.

The Conservative Party of New York State in the 1970s and the Farmer-Labour Party in the 1930s are the only minor parties to win Senate seats in the last century.

Smaller parties saw more success in the House in the early 20th century but have only won one seat since the 1950s.

AFP spoke to multiple analysts who pointed to the many hurdles thrown in front of third-party candidates trying to get onto the ballot in a system designed to favour the status quo.

These include minimum signature requirements, filing fees and other onerous state-specific regulations on age, residency and citizenship.

“Remember in early 2024 the so-called ‘No Labels’ party that was going to chart a middle course for the 2024 elections?” said veteran political strategist Matt Klink.

“They fizzled out in epic fashion.”

Analysts agree that winning seats in Congress may be a stretch, but say Musk can inflict pain on Trump by syphoning votes from vulnerable sitting Republicans or throwing cash at primary opponents of the president´s preferred candidates.

“Musk’s party won’t win seats, but it could cost Republicans plenty,” said Evan Nierman, the founder and CEO of global crisis PR firm Red Banyan.

“In tight districts, even a few points siphoned off from the right could flip control,” he added.