THE Israel-Iran and America war is a web of conspiracies—there are wheels within wheels.
President Trump announced that the war has ended. But has it? It is merely a pause. A new chapter in interstate relations is bound to open. The USA, having been pounded at its bases in Qatar and Iraq, saw Qatar broker a ceasefire. However, the roles of China and Russia are crucial and must not be ignored.
By attacking Iran, the USA has committed a grave strategic error. The bigger the power, the greater the enormity of the mistake. Iran could never have been subdued in the first place. Conversely, the USA has lost credibility and suffered political damage, contradicting its own proclaimed role as a global superpower. Iran’s response—hitting American bases in Gulf States and Iraq—sent a clear message to the region. Ironically, the USA had been pre-informed. The follow-up response from the US was unprecedented for a superpower.
There were fears that the conflict would engulf the entire region and have global repercussions. That narrative was advanced by the US and it was reported that Washington contacted both China and Russia to help mediate a ceasefire. The Trump-Putin phone call on June 14 further shadowed American moves. It is presumed that the ceasefire proposal, officially attributed to Qatar, actually originated from the United States. While not widely reported, Israel also suffered heavy losses in infrastructure and its military’s aura of invincibility. Financial losses are estimated to be in the hundreds of billions of US dollars. Thankfully, both Israel and Iran have accepted the ceasefire, which still holds—making it, at least temporarily, a win-win situation for all sides.
The broader context remains deeply rooted in Israel’s Gaza-oriented game plan: weaken Iran to neutralize Gaza resistance. The US is fully complicit in this strategy. The origin of the conflict dates back to 1917 with the imposition of the Balfour Declaration by the British, initiating the trauma and suffering of the Palestinian people. Since then, Palestine has remained a bleeding wound. The global narrative of “threat” is shaped by Western and Israeli lenses, often influenced by powerful Jewish lobbies that, despite being just 2.3% of the US population, wield immense control over its financial, media and political institutions.
The state of Israel is essentially an extension of US power in the Arab world, representing Western interests in the region. It is the only non-Arab, white-majority state in the Middle East, enjoying unmatched financial and military support. The Ottomans’ hold over the region was broken through a network of conspiracies. It was only in 1973, when King Faisal nationalized Saudi oil, that the political landscape began to shift. While this wealth enriched Arab monarchies, it also made them vulnerable, compelling them to rely on Western security guarantees—an opening Israel has exploited to expand from a tiny territory to its present scale.
The Gulf States’ newfound wealth and suggestions to delink oil sales from the US dollar are alarming for the USA, crossing strategic red lines. In the post-Ukraine war context, the world is divided into the Western global North and the emerging global South. A stronger Iran, aligned with Russia and China, now challenges Israel—the US’s watchdog in the Middle East. Pakistan, a nuclear power, watches the growing regional instability with grave concern.
The USA adopted a two-pronged strategy in the Gulf and Saudi Arabia. Western firms invested heavily, gaining control over these economies, leaving Arab rulers as mere figureheads. As part of this plan, the so-called Arab Spring was initiated, leading to the destruction of several Arab states under various pretexts and reinforcing Israel’s image as invincible.
In response, Iranian-supported proxies emerged to resist Western-imposed imperialism. Meanwhile, US backing emboldened Israeli leaders, making them more ruthless in their political and military actions against Arabs. Israel instigated the Lebanese civil war and conducted multiple destructive operations. Palestinians in Gaza remain confined to an open prison, subjected to a genocide with no accountability. Any proposed solution is sabotaged by Israel’s extreme-right leadership under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Since 1992, Israel has aimed to attack Iran, waiting to create the right pretext. Thus emerged rhetoric like “weapons of mass destruction,” “denuclearization,” and “rogue regimes.” The current escalation, including the June 13 attack, was reportedly coordinated with the CIA and US President. Denials of US involvement are deceptive. The drone and missile strikes involved external and internal actors within Iran, supported by a spy network embedded in Iranian elite circles. Intelligence was coordinated by the CIA, Mossad, MI6 and cyber communications teams, with even ground operatives involved.
Israel’s recent assault had three primary goals: de-nuclearize Iran, instigate regime change and force Iran into submission. While the regime change narrative is now downplayed, the underlying objectives remain. However, none of these goals have been achieved. Contrary to expectations that killing Iranian leaders would spark domestic unrest, the Iranian people rallied behind their government, chanting “Marg bar Israel, Marg bar America” (“Death to Israel, Death to America”). Within 24 hours, the leadership vacuum was filled, order restored and a swift response launched.
Iran’s drone and missile attacks penetrated multiple air defence layers in Iraq, Syria, Cyprus and Israel itself. Despite Iron Dome and other systems, 10–20% of Iranian warheads reached their targets, causing massive destruction in Tel Aviv, Haifa and other cities—inflicting billions in damages. As a gunner myself, I affirm that no system is fully impenetrable. Strategically, Israel’s myth has been shattered, making it more dangerous. The attacks also revealed that Israel cannot defend itself without American support. Over 12 days of war, none of Israel’s or the USA’s stated objectives were achieved.
China and Russia will never tolerate a geopolitical imbalance that brings the United States closer to their borders. Though all sides claim victory—USA boasting of nuclear facility destruction, Iran initially denying but later admitting some damage—the truth is murky. Iran’s strategic U-turn to acknowledge damage was a prudent move. Forewarning allowed it to move its critical assets before the US B-2 attack.
The ceasefire is just a pause. Each power is reassessing its strength, losses and vulnerabilities. Trump may attack again if Iran rebuilds its nuclear program. Yet any further move is unlikely to proceed without resistance from China and Russia. Reportedly, Trump has offered Iran $30 billion, lifting sanctions and unfreezing assets if it agrees to peaceful nuclear use and a two-state solution for Gaza—though this has been denied. Iran will likely reject this offer. Israel also accuses Pakistan of aiding Iran, placing Pakistan at risk.
Strategic dynamics in the region and globally have shifted significantly. The world is now multipolar. The battle lines are drawn. Iran pledges long-term resistance. The USA and Israel will seek to reclaim their prestige. Meanwhile, India seems poised to side with them, with aggressive behavior—such as its conduct at the recent SCO ministerial meeting—hinting at future hostility. The India-Israel axis is a worrying development.
The June 13 strike on Iran inflicted significant internal damage, allegedly facilitated by RAW-Mossad collaboration. Both agencies reportedly have a footprint in Pakistan as well, necessitating a thorough security sweep. The coming year will be fraught with regional and global dangers. Pakistan’s handling of the situation thus far is commendable. However, Pakistan must brace for multidirectional threats through internal unity and sound economic foresight.
—The author is a Brigadier Retired, a decorated officer with 32 years of active combat experience, 30 years in corporate sector as MD/COO. A column writer, Researcher and TV analyst.
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