The traditional post-summer rentrée feels almost incomplete without an accompanying political crisis in France. And right on cue this year’s return from les grandes vacances has delivered – but in the form of a shock move that could collapse the government within a fortnight, plunging Europe’s second biggest economy into chaos.
Prime minister François Bayrou stunned the country on Monday by announcing he would seek a “back me or sack me” confidence vote in the national assembly on 8 September. For a minority prime minister, it is a risky gamble indeed – he has almost no chance of winning the vote, wrote Angelique Chrisafis, the Guardian’s Paris correspondent.
France is now bracing for political paralysis or destabilisation – as well as its debt crisis – at a time when geopolitical demands are intensifying: the war in Ukraine and Russia’s threat to Europe’s security; EU/US trade tensions and an escalating row with the Trump administration over France’s expected recognition of Palestine. As the EU’s biggest military power, France is co-leader of the western coalition that could potentially send troops to Ukraine in the event of a peace deal. Yet President Macron’s international focus may soon have to switch to the domestic search for a new prime minister.
Bayrou, appointed by Macron just nine months ago, vowed on Tuesday to “fight like a dog” to remain in power. But the parliamentary arithmetic is stacked against him, with opposition parties on the far right and the left already declaring they will vote against him.
The PM’s troubles escalated after he outlined proposals for a budgetary freeze in 2026 and the abolition of two public holidays, a plan that drew howls of outrage from all sides. Bayrou says austerity is imperative because France is broke and on the cusp of a “national emergency” over its deficit and debt.
By now putting his own job on the line he appears to be daring political opponents on the far right and left to press the nuclear button – hoping they won’t want the blame for the ensuing upheaval with France already facing pressure on the bond markets.
The timing suggests he is also hoping to outmanoeuvre the anonymous organisers of “Bloquons Tout”, a grassroots campaign that is threatening to bring the country to a standstill with nationwide anti-cuts protests on 10 September.
Either way, Bayrou’s days in the Matignon appear to be numbered. Angelique pointed out that the veteran politician recently achieved the distinction of becoming the most unpopular French prime minister since the start of the Fifth Republic in 1958.
A snap poll for the French TV channel TF1 published Wednesdsay morning showed that 63% are in favour of dissolving parliament – in other words, fresh elections – and 68% think Macron should resign if an election perpetuated the current parliamentary gridlock.
Paul Taylor, a France-based Guardian opinion contributor and senior visiting fellow with the European Policy Centre, says Bayrou’s calculus is that if the vote is purely on the fiscal crisis and the need to take drastic measures to reduce the debt mountain, enough opposition MPs will abstain and the government will survive with enhanced legitimacy.
“But it doesn’t look as if either the political class or the public are buying Bayrou’s argument that France is on the brink of a debt crisis,” he noted.
Bayrou was appointed after his predecessor, Michel Barnier, was ousted after using special powers to force through spending cuts after just three months in the role.
Because of the size of the French economy, the uncertainty is a concern for the eurozone more broadly. The Paris stock market tumbled after Bayrou’s announcement, shares in French banks slid and borrowing costs have risen.
Peace in Ukraine?
Talks between Kyiv and its western allies on “security guarantees” for a postwar Ukraine are said to be making progress, even if the bigger picture suggests that Donald Trump’s peace initiative is going nowhere.
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Vladimir Putin has hardened his stance since his red-carpet summit with Trump in Alaska, wrote Pjotr Sauer, the Guardian’s Russia affairs reporter. Moscow is flatly rejecting the prospect of troops from countries in Europe being positioned in Ukraine.
Donald Trump has also ruled out US “boots on the ground” in Ukraine, offering only a vague, undefined US coordinating role. This means that despite the upbeat mood after last week’s Washington summit, where Macron and other European leaders flanked President Zelenskyy, the realisation is sinking in, wrote Paul Taylor, that Europe is on its own in defending Ukraine and hence its own security against Russian aggression.
There is anger but little surprise in Donetsk, from where Dan Sabbagh sent this vivid dispatch, at the lack of a breakthrough. Putin apparently demanded the industrial region’s handover during the Alaska summit.
As Ukraine prepared to mark 34 years of independence from the Soviet Union last weekend, the Ukrainian novelist Andrey Kurkov articulated the Ukrainian fear that peace remains “a distant dream”. He writes: “Trump’s peace plans once again have turned out to be an illusion, and the only person who has not yet realised this is the US president.”
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