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Statistics Canada’s final major data release of 2025 showed Canadian GDP contracting by 0.3% in October, a tick lower than our pre-release expectation but in line with Statistics Canada’s preliminary estimate. With the advance estimate pointing to a small rebound in November, current tracking leaves GDP growth roughly in line with our base-case forecast of stabilizing conditions in Q4.
While this marks a slowdown from Q3’s jump, domestic demand appears to be on firmer footing. Trade-related uncertainty continues to weigh on export-oriented sectors, but conditions appear to be stabilizing rather than collapsing. October’s data were also influenced by a handful of one-off factors that should unwind, reinforcing the view that October’s softness does not point to a broader deterioration.
Canadian GDP posted a 0.3% pullback in October, mainly driven by goods-producing sectors, while services-providing industry growth also edged lower.
Early indicators, including hours worked rising 0.4% month-over-month, the advance retail sales indicator up 1.2%, and early wholesale sales indicator rising 0.1%, all pointed to a potential recovery in November. On a quarterly basis, Q4 GDP is still tracking at around 0.5% annualized following a 2.6% jump in Q3.
Within goods-producing industries, weaknesses were concentrated in manufacturing, oil and gas (O&G) extraction. Statistics Canada attributed the O&G decline to maintenance activities at oil sands facilities. Supporting activities for mining also dropped by 2.4%, but mining excluding oil and gas posted gains, offsetting some weaknesses.
Trade-exposed sectors reported weaker activities. Manufacturing saw a 1.5% decline in output following a 1.8% increase in September. Transportation and warehousing output (-1.1%) was hit by a nationwide postal service work stoppage early in the month. With the strike shifting to a rotating format on October 11 and the advance GDP estimate for November pointing to growth in that sector, a rebound from strike-related weakness is suggested.
Some service-producing industries were affected by temporary factors. Arts and entertainment received a boost from the Blue Jays’ playoff run, although this support was likely reversed in November. Offsetting stronger activity, Alberta’s teachers’ strike temporarily weighed on education services. Wholesale and retail trade GDP also declined, by 0.9% and 0.6%, respectively.
Statistics Canada’s advance estimate for November points to GDP growth of 0.1%, driven by gains in educational services, construction and transportation and warehousing were partially offset by decreases in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction and manufacturing.
About the Author
Abbey Xu is an economist at RBC. She is a member of the macroeconomic analysis group, focusing on macroeconomic forecasting models and providing timely analysis and updates on economic trends.
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