The signs of a slowdown in growth have been evident in recent data on music consumption.
Now the latest figures from the BPI confirm that the market momentum is slowing in the UK, where single digit growth rates for streaming now appear to be the new normal.
According to the half-year market figures (based on Official Charts Company data), streaming consumption (SEA – streaming equivalent albums) was up 6.4% year-on-year in the first six months of 2025 to 93,632,987 units. The rate of growth has slowed during the course of the year with streaming consumption up 6.3% year-on-year in Q2, compared with 6.6% in Q1.
It means the market will have to really motor in the rest of the year if it’s to even come close to matching the 11% year-on-year SEA growth in 2024. That was consistent with the 11% growth at the mid-way point of 2024.
The overall music consumption results (Album Equivalent Sales – AES) across all formats for the half-year period showed an increase of 5.2%. Again, momentum was slowing in Q2 with a year-on-year increase of 4.3% compared to 6.2% in Q1.
The AES overall market results for the first half of 2025 compares with a 9.8% increase for the first six months of 2024. The overall result for 2024 was almost identical at 9.7%.
The BPI results for the UK coincide with a new report from industry analysts MIDiA, which found that the global music industry is “navigating a crucial period of recalibration”. It follows MIDiA’s warning on slowing growth earlier this year.
MIDiA Research Global Music Forecasts 2025-2032 report stated that 2024 marked a year of “tempered growth”, with global recorded music revenues up by a modest 4.5%.
Despite the near-term slowdown, the long-term outlook remains positive, according to the report. Retail revenues will reach $110.8 billion by 2032, surpassing the $100bn mark in 2030. Label trade revenues are expected to reach $58.2bn by 2032.
As streaming user growth slows in the West, getting music consumers to spend more is going to be central to revenue growth
Mark Mulligan
“As streaming user growth slows in the West, getting music consumers to spend more is going to be central to revenue growth,” said Mark Mulligan, managing director and senior music analyst at MIDiA Research. “The question is whether consumers have an appetite for spending that matches the industry’s expectations, which is why continued diversification of income will be so important for long term market growth.”
PHYSICAL SALES
The upbeat story about physical album sales in the past year has also taken a knock with these latest results.
Physical sales are back into negative territory with the half-year numbers. Overall physical sales for the first six months are down 4.7% year-on-year to 7,664,596 units. While that’s not disastrous, the Q2 results for physical were dreadful – down 14.5% year-on-year – and that has dragged the half-year result down. Just three months ago, the physical sector was still buoyant with unit sales growth of 5.7%.
The main reason for the decline was an eye-watering 22.4% slump in CD sales in Q2 (and the format is down 12.8% so far this year). Last summer there had been talk of a CD revival.
Worryingly, vinyl sales are wobbling so far in 2025. While they were up 6% year-on-year to 3,235,244 units for the first six months, that compares to growth of 12.4% at this time last year (and 9.1% overall in 2024).
The real concern is that vinyl sales were down in Q2 by 2.8% year-on-year (1,532,884), despite another successful edition of Record Store Day during the quarter.
However, a one-off factor in that decline may be the absence of a Taylor Swift album in 2025. In Q2 of 2024, Swift’s The Tortured Poets Department moved 180,236 physical copies (109,392 CDs, 66,388 vinyl albums, 4,457 cassettes) in week one alone. That 66,388 for TTPD’s vinyl sales in the opening week outstrips the 43,979 decline in Q2 2025 vinyl units compared to the prior year quarter.
Nevertheless, it means that vinyl growth can no longer be taken for granted.
HALF-YEAR CHART RESULTS
Alex Warren’s long-running No.1 Ordinary (Atlantic) was the biggest song of the first half of 2025 with consumption of 1,095,807 (Official Charts Company) – the only million-seller of the year so far.
Messy (Island) by Lola Young, which was No.1 overall in Q1, is in second place with 996,063 units – although it has total consumption of 1,174,749 when counting streaming for the track in 2024.
Chrystal is the only other UK artist in the Top 10 (No.7, 680,923) with The Days (Chaos/Polydor), though RCA’s streaming sensation Myles Smith secures two entries in the year-to-date Top 20 with Nice To Meet You (No.19, 505,924) and Stargazing (No.20, 476,805). Stargazing has consumption to date of 1,489,504.
In the albums chart, Sabrina Carpenter is on top overall for the half-year with Short ’N Sweet (Polydor) on 347,717 units in 2025 (720,673 to date). With a follow-up album, Man’s Best Friend, out in August there’s a strong possibility that Carpenter could have two of the biggest albums of 2025.
Atlantic-signed Ed Sheeran is at No.2 with +–=÷× (Tour Collection) on 216,299 units so far this year. Sheeran, who has lined up new studio album Play for Q4, is one of five UK acts in the Top 10 (including Anglo-Americans Fleetwood Mac at No.4).
Sam Fender’s album People Watching (Polydor) is at No.3 overall (188,682 units), making it the biggest new release of 2025.
He is joined by fellow UK acts Elton John with Diamonds (EMI/UMR) at No.8 (152,094 units this year) and Charli XCX’s Brat at No.9 (143,827 units this year).
As well as Top 10 album appearances for the half-year by The Weeknd, Chappell Roan and SZA, Tate McRae is just outside at No.11 with So Close To What (139,279). Released via Sony Music’s Ministry Of Sound, the Q1 album release has actually gained momentum in Q2 where it finished at No.7 overall.
Ahead of their comeback tour, Oasis also had a strong result in Q2 with a No.5 finish for Time Flies – 1994-2009 (Big Brother) on consumption of 74,001 in the quarter.
PHOTO: Banquet