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NEW YORK—The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the November 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that households’ inflation expectations remained unchanged at the short-, medium-, and longer-term horizons.  Expectations about the growth in medical care costs increased to its highest level since January 2014. Labor market expectations improved slightly, but respondents’ perceptions and expectations about their current and future financial situation became more negative. The survey was fielded from November 1 through November 30, 2025.

The main findings from the November 2025 Survey are:

Inflation

• Median inflation expectations in November remained unchanged at the one-year-ahead horizon (3.2%) and remained steady at the three-year and five-year-ahead horizons (3.0%). The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at all horizons
• Median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed regarding future inflation outcomes—remained unchanged at the one-year and three-year horizons and decreased at the five-year horizon.

• Median home price growth expectations remained unchanged at 3.0% for the sixth consecutive month.
• Median year-ahead commodity price change expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point for food (to 5.9%), 0.6 percentage point for gas (to 4.1%), 0.7 percentage point for the cost of medical care (to 10.1%), 0.2 percentage point for the cost of a college education (to 8.4%) and by 1.1 percentage points for rent (to 8.3%). The reading for the expected change in the cost of medical care is the highest since January 2014, shortly after the series began.

Labor Market

• Median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations remained unchanged at 2.6% in November.
• Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—decreased by 0.4 percentage point to 42.1%.
• The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 13.8%, the lowest reading since December 2024. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily, or the expected quit rate, in the next 12 months decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 17.7%, the lowest reading since February 2025.
• The mean perceived probability of finding a job in the next three months if one’s current job was lost increased by 0.5 percentage point to 47.3%, while remaining below the trailing 12-month average of 49.8%.

Household Finance

• The median expected growth in household income increased to 2.9% in November from 2.8% in October, equaling its trailing 12-month average.

• Median nominal household spending growth expectations increased by 0.2 percentage point to 5.0%.
• Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated, with the net share of respondents expecting it will be easier versus harder to obtain credit a year from now decreasing, while expectations for future credit availability were largely unchanged.
• The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased by 0.6 percentage point to 13.7%, modestly above the trailing 12-month average of 13.3%.
• The median expectation regarding a year-ahead change in taxes at current income level increased by 0.9 percentage point to 4.1%, the highest reading since June 2024. The increase was broad-based across age, education, and income groups.
• Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt increased by 2.0 percentage points to 9.2%, the highest reading since July 2024.
• The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher in 12 months decreased by 0.8 percentage point to 24.1%.
• Perceptionsabout households’ current financial situations compared to a year ago deteriorated notably with a larger share of respondents reporting that their households were worse off compared to a year ago, and a smaller share reporting they were better off. Expectations about year-ahead financial situations also deteriorated slightly with a smaller share of respondents reporting that their households are expecting to be better off a year from now.
• The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 37.9%.

 
About the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE)

The SCE contains information about how consumers expect overall inflation and prices for food, gas, housing, and education to behave. It also provides insight into Americans’ views about job prospects and earnings growth and their expectations about future spending and access to credit. The SCE also provides measures of uncertainty regarding consumers’ outlooks. Expectations are also available by age, geography, income, education, and numeracy. 

The SCE is a nationally representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,200 household heads. Respondents participate in the panel for up to 12 months, with a roughly equal number rotating in and out of the panel each month. Unlike comparable surveys based on repeated cross-sections with a different set of respondents in each wave, this panel allows us to observe the changes in expectations and behavior of the same individuals over time. For further information on the SCE, please refer to an overview of the survey methodology here, the FAQs, the interactive chart guide, and the survey questionnaire.