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  • Advanced Micro Devices vs. Micron Technology

    Advanced Micro Devices vs. Micron Technology

    • Shares of AMD and Micron Technology have soared impressively in the past three months.

    • Both are set to benefit from identical end markets, but one of them is growing at a much faster pace.

    • The valuation will make it clear which of these semiconductor stocks is worth buying right now.

    • 10 stocks we like better than Micron Technology ›

    The demand for artificial intelligence (AI) chips has been increasing at a nice pace in the past few years. Major cloud service providers (CSPs), hyperscalers, and governments have been spending a lot of money on shoring up their cloud infrastructure so that they can run AI workloads.

    This explains why the businesses of Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) and Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) have gained terrific traction in recent quarters. As a result, shares of both these chip designers have clocked impressive gains in the past three months. AMD has jumped 32% during this period, and Micron stock is up 36%.

    But if you had to put your money into just one of these AI semiconductor stocks right now, which one should it be? Let’s find out.

    Image source: Getty Images.

    AMD designs chips that go into personal computers (PCs), servers, and gaming consoles, and for other applications such as robotics, automotive, and industrial automation. AI has created impressive demand for the company’s chips in these areas, leading to healthy growth in its top and bottom lines.

    The company’s revenue in the first quarter of 2025 was up by 36% from the year-ago period to $7.4 billion, while non-GAAP earnings per share shot up by 55% to $0.96. This solid growth was primarily driven by the data center and PC markets, which accounted for 81% of its top line. AMD’s data center revenue was up by 57% from the year-ago period, while the PC business reported a 68% increase.

    In the data center business, AMD sells both central processing units (CPUs) and graphics processing units (GPUs) that are deployed in AI servers. The demand for both these products is strong, which is evident from the terrific growth the company recorded in Q1. Importantly, AMD estimates that the market for AI accelerator chips in data centers could create a $500 billion annual revenue opportunity in 2028.

    So, the outstanding growth that AMD clocked in the data center business in Q1 seems sustainable, especially considering that it generated $12.6 billion in revenue from data center chip sales last year — nearly double the 2023 revenue. AMD is pushing the envelope on the product development front with new chips that are expected to pack in a serious performance upgrade and may even help it take market share away from Nvidia.

    Meanwhile, AMD’s consistent market share gains in PC CPUs make it a solid bet on the secular growth of the AI PC market, which is expected to clock an annual growth rate of 42% in shipments through 2028. All this indicates that AMD is on track to take advantage of the growing adoption of AI chips in multiple applications, and that’s expected to lead to an acceleration in its bottom-line growth.

    Consensus estimates are projecting a 17% jump in AMD’s earnings this year, followed by a bigger jump of 45% in 2026. As such, this semiconductor company is likely to remain a top AI stock in the future as well.

    Micron Technology manufactures and sells memory chips that are used for both computing and storage purposes, and the likes of AMD and Nvidia are its customers. In fact, just like AMD, Micron’s memory chips are used in AI accelerators such as GPUs and custom processors, PCs, and the smartphone and automotive end markets.

    Micron has been witnessing outstanding demand for a type of chip known as high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which is known for its ability to transmit huge amounts of data at high speeds. This is the reason why HBM is being deployed in AI accelerators, and the demand for this memory type is so strong that the likes of Micron have already sold out their capacity for this year.

    Not surprisingly, Micron is ramping up its HBM production capacity, and it’s going to increase its capital expenditure to $14 billion in the current fiscal year from $8.1 billion in the previous one. The company’s focus on improving its HBM production capacity is a smart thing to do from a long-term perspective, as this market is expected to grow to $100 billion in annual revenue by 2030, compared to $35 billion this year.

    Micron’s memory chips are used in PCs and smartphones as well. Apart from the growth in unit volumes that AI-enabled PCs and smartphones are expected to create going forward, the amount of memory going into these devices is also expected to increase. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra remarked on the company’s latest earnings conference call:

    AI adoption remains a key driver of DRAM content growth for smartphones, and we expect more smartphone launches featuring 12 gigabytes or more compared to eight gigabytes of capacity in the average smartphone today.

    Similarly, AI-enabled PCs are expected to sport at least 16GB of DRAM to run AI workloads, up by a third when compared to the average DRAM content in PCs last year. So, just like AMD, Micron is on its way to capitalizing on multiple AI-focused end markets. However, it is growing at a much faster pace than AMD because of the tight memory supply created by AI, which is leading to a nice increase in memory prices.

    The favorable pricing environment is the reason why Micron’s adjusted earnings more than tripled in the previous quarter to $1.91 per share on the back of a 37% increase in its top line. Analysts are forecasting a 6x jump in Micron’s earnings in the current fiscal year, and they have raised their earnings expectations for the next couple of years as well.

    MU EPS Estimates for Current Fiscal Year Chart
    MU EPS Estimates for Current Fiscal Year data by YCharts.

    So, Micron stock seems poised to sustain its impressive growth momentum, thanks to the AI-fueled demand for HBM.

    Both AMD and Micron are growing at solid rates, with the latter clocking a much faster pace thanks to the favorable demand-supply dynamics in the memory industry. What’s more, Micron is trading at a significantly cheaper valuation compared to AMD, despite its substantially stronger growth.

    AMD PE Ratio Chart
    AMD PE Ratio data by YCharts.

    Investors looking for a mix of value and growth can pick Micron over AMD, considering the former’s attractive valuation and the phenomenal earnings growth that it can deliver. However, one can’t go wrong with AMD either. The company should be able to justify its valuation in the long run, considering its ability to clock stronger earnings growth.

    Before you buy stock in Micron Technology, consider this:

    The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Micron Technology wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

    Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004… if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $699,558!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005… if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $976,677!*

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    Harsh Chauhan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Advanced Micro Devices and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

    Better Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock: Advanced Micro Devices vs. Micron Technology was originally published by The Motley Fool

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  • A clinical-metabolic prediction model for suicidal behaviors risk stra

    A clinical-metabolic prediction model for suicidal behaviors risk stra

    Introduction

    Suicide is a critical global public health issue. The World Health Organization estimates over 800,000 annual suicide deaths worldwide.1,2 It ranks as the 18th leading cause of death across all ages, but is the second leading cause among those aged 15–29, surpassed only by unintentional injuries.3 Alarmingly, one suicide occurs approximately every 40 seconds.3 Suicide rates are high in many nations.4 The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported in 2018 that the US age-adjusted suicide rate rose 33% from 1999 to 2017.5 Critically, global rates are likely significantly underestimated. Some suicides may be misclassified (eg, as undetermined causes), potentially making actual figures 10–50% higher than reported.6,7 Suicide deaths represent merely the tip of the iceberg: non-fatal attempts are estimated to be 10–20 times more frequent, and suicidal ideation without action is vastly more common than completed suicide.8–10

    Suicidal behaviors (SB) arises from complex interactions between psychiatric illness, environmental stressors, and sociocultural determinants.11 Among psychiatric disorders, Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) emerges as the most potent predictor, implicated in >90% of suicide fatalities.12,13 MDD, characterized by profound disability and high recurrence rates,14–16 diminishes quality of life,17 disrupts occupational functioning,18 and exacerbates socioeconomic burdens,19 and also significantly elevates the risk of suicide.20 Despite therapeutic advances, persistent SB vulnerability during antidepressant treatment reveals critical shortcomings in current risk stratification paradigms.21 Specifically, the inability to identify subgroups at high risk of SB that are resistant to conventional interventions highlights the need to develop refined predictive models that integrate biomarkers.

    Current literature predominantly investigates SB prevalence in mixed outpatient/inpatient cohorts or recurrent MDD populations,22,23 with limited focus on first-hospitalized patients—a high-risk subgroup requiring urgent intervention. This gap is significant because the initial hospitalization often represents the first major clinical presentation and intervention point for severe MDD. Individuals experiencing their first severe depressive episode necessitating hospitalization may present distinct clinical profiles, biological correlates, and vulnerability to SB compared to those with chronic or recurrent illness.24–26 Factors such as the acute onset of severe symptoms, potential treatment naivety, and the profound psychological impact of a first psychiatric hospitalization could uniquely shape SB risk trajectories.26,27 Understanding SB determinants at this pivotal juncture is crucial for developing effective early intervention strategies. Furthermore, while metabolic dysregulation and thyroid dysfunction are increasingly recognized as SB correlates,28 potential neurobiological mechanisms include: dyslipidemia and visceral adiposity may promote neuroinflammation,28,29 serotonergic dysfunction,30 and HPA axis hyperactivity;31 elevated TSH may impair monoaminergic neurotransmission,32 reduce GABAergic inhibition,33 and diminish neurotrophic support.34 These disturbances likely synergize with psychopathology to exacerbate suicide risk through convergent effects on prefrontal-limbic circuitry.35,36 Nevertheless, clinically applicable biomarkers remain elusive despite compelling pathophysiological links.28,37

    This study addresses these gaps through three primary objectives: 1) establishing SB prevalence in first-admission MDD patients within China’s Han population; 2) identifying clinical and metabolic correlates of SB occurrence and severity; 3) constructing a multidimensional prediction model integrating psychometric and biological markers. By focusing on treatment-naïve inpatients during acute-phase MDD, our findings aim to enhance early risk detection and inform targeted prevention strategies.

    Study Design and Participants

    The sample size was determined using the formula:


    In this equation, n stands for the sample size, Z refers to the Z-score associated with the desired confidence level (1.96 for a 95% confidence interval), P indicates the estimated prevalence or proportion (chosen as 0.2 based on the rate of dyslipidemia in the general Chinese population), and d is the acceptable margin of error (set at 0.05). Based on these values, the calculated sample size came to 246 individuals.

    Participants were consecutively recruited from all first-admission MDD inpatients meeting inclusion criteria at Wuhan Mental Health Center (It is the largest public institution with psychiatric specialty in central China, visited by the patient population throughout the region) between July 2017 and August 2022. All eligible patients during this period were approached for enrollment, and those providing informed consent were included in the study. Diagnosis of MDD was confirmed through structured clinical interviews aligned with the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition (DSM-5) criteria (Figure 1: Participant Flow Diagram).

    Figure 1 Study Flowchart.

    Inclusion required: (1) no prior psychiatric hospitalization history; (2) age 18–60 years; (3) male or female; (4) Han Chinese ethnicity; (5) acute-phase depressive severity (HAMD-17 score ≥24).

    Exclusion criteria encompassed: (1) pregnancy/lactation; (2) substance use disorders; (3) severe medical comorbidities or personality disorders; (4) diabetes mellitus diagnosis; (5) current use of psychotropic medications or drugs affecting metabolic/endocrine parameters; (6) cognitive/behavioral impairment precluding assessment compliance.

    The study was approved by the Ethics Committee of Wuhan Mental Health Center. All participants provided written informed consent prior to their involvement in the research, in accordance with the principles of the Declaration of Helsinki.

    Clinical and Biochemical Assessments

    Demographic profiles (age, sex, marital status), illness characteristics (age of onset, disease duration), and treatment history were systematically recorded. Within 24 hours post-admission, certified psychiatrists administered validated instruments:

    Depressive Severity

    Assessed using the 17-item Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HAMD-17), quantifying symptoms via clinician-administered ratings (0–4/0–2 per item; total range 0–52).

    Anxiety Severity

    Measured with the 14-item Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale (HAMA-14) evaluating somatic and psychic symptoms on 0–4 scales (total range 0–56).

    Psychotic Features

    Evaluated by the Positive subscale (P1–P7) of the PANSS (PSS) scoring seven psychotic symptoms on 1–7 severity dimensions (subscale range 7–49).

    Global Illness Severity

    Rated via the Clinical Global Impression–Severity Index (CGI-SI), a clinician-determined 7-point global metric (1=normal to 7=extremely ill).

    Fasting venous blood samples collected on Day 2 were analyzed for:

    Thyroid Function

    Thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH), free triiodothyronine (FT3), free thyroxine (FT4).

    Metabolic Indices

    Total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high-/low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C/LDL-C), fasting blood glucose (FBG).

    Anthropometrics

    Waist circumference (WC), body mass index (BMI), systolic/diastolic blood pressure (SBP/DBP).

    Suicidal Behaviors Evaluation

    Current SB (past 30 days) was ascertained through semi-structured interviews with patients and corroborated by family members/guardians. The clinician-administered Columbia Suicide Severity Rating Scale (C-SSRS) quantified SB severity through six ordinal levels (passive ideation to lethal attempts) in SB-positive cases. The C-SSRS was administered by raters trained to reliability standards (kappa>0.80) through the official Chinese C-SSRS certification program. To ensure validity: All interviews followed the standardized C-SSRS structured guide.38

    Trained psychiatrists (≥5 years experience) administered all instruments following standardized protocols, with inter-rater reliability maintained at κ > 0.80 through monthly calibration sessions.

    Data Analysis

    Categorical variables were expressed as frequencies (%), continuous variables as mean±SD or median (IQR) based on distribution normality (Shapiro–Wilk test). Between-group comparisons employed χ²-tests for categorical data, independent t-tests for normally distributed variables, and Mann–Whitney U-tests for nonparametric measures. Variables with p < 0.10 in univariate analyses were entered into binary logistic regression (backward elimination) to identify SB correlates. Model discrimination was evaluated via receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, with area under the curve (AUC) >0.70 considered clinically informative.39,40 SB severity correlates were analyzed through multiple linear regression. Significance was set at two-tailed p<0.05. Analyses utilized SPSS 27 and GraphPad Prism 8.4.3.

    Results

    Clinical and Metabolic Profile of SB Subgroups

    A total of 132 cases of MDD accompanied by SB were recorded, accounting for 13.46% (132/981) of the total. Comparative analysis revealed substantial disparities between MDD patients with SB (n = 132) and non-SB counterparts (n = 849). The SB cohort demonstrated elevated psychopathological severity across multiple domains: PANSS positive symptom scores were markedly higher (Z = −14.49, p < 0.001), as were anxiety symptoms (HAMA: Z = −12.43, p < 0.001) and global illness severity (CGI-SI: Z = −11.76, p<0.001). Metabolic dysregulation was prominent in SB patients, evidenced by increased TSH (Z = −6.59, p < 0.001), WC (Z = −2.15, p = 0.032), FBG (t = −3.98, p < 0.001), and TC (Z = −7.35, p < 0.001). Notably, SB patients exhibited shorter median disease duration (9.5 vs 10.5 months, p=0.004) (Table 1).

    Table 1 The Demographic and General Clinical Data in Different Clinical Subgroups

    Multivariate Predictors of Suicidal Behaviors

    Binary logistic regression identified six factors independently associated with SB (Table 2). Anxiety severity (HAMA: OR=1.37, 95% CI=1.25–1.51) and psychotic features (PSS: OR=1.08, 95% CI=1.01–1.14) showed dose-dependent associations with SB risk. Clinical global severity (CGI-SI: OR=3.52, 95% CI=2.38–5.22) emerged as the strongest predictor, while metabolic parameters including WC (OR=1.04, 95% CI=1.01–1.07), DBP (OR=1.04, 95% CI=1.01–1.08), and TC (OR=1.51, 95% CI=1.07–2.12) contributed additively. Paradoxically, higher LDL-C levels reduced SB likelihood (OR=0.58, 95% CI=0.40–0.84).

    Table 2 Binary Logistic Regression Analyses of Determinants of SB in MDD Patients

    Discriminative Capacity and Severity Associations

    ROC analysis demonstrated differential discriminatory capacity among SB-associated factors (Table 3). The HAMA scale achieved superior performance (AUC=0.83, 95% CI=0.80–0.87), followed by CGI-SI (AUC=0.79) and PSS (AUC=0.76). A composite model integrating these three clinical measures yielded exceptional classification accuracy (AUC=0.87, 95% CI=0.83–0.91), significantly outperforming isolated metabolic parameters (AUC range: 0.56–0.69) (Figure 2). Linear regression of SB severity (C-SSRS scores) identified HAMA as a positive contributor (β=0.21, p=0.029) and TC as a mitigating factor (β=−0.98, p=0.032), accounting for 18.7% of severity variance (adjusted R²=0.187) (Table 4).

    Table 3 ROC Analysis of Factors Influencing SB

    Table 4 Multiple Linear Regression Analysis of Correlates of SB Severity

    Figure 2 The discriminatory capacity of related factors for distinguishing between patients with and without SB in MDD patients. The area under the curve of PSS score, HAMA score, CGI-SI score, and the combination of these three factors were 0.76, 0.83, 0.79, and 0.87, respectively.

    Discussion

    This investigation provides novel insights into SB among first-hospitalized MDD patients, addressing critical gaps in characterizing this high-risk population. Four principal findings emerge: (1) SB prevalence of 13.46% in treatment-naïve inpatients; (2) distinct psychopathological and metabolic profiles in SB subgroups; (3) validated discriminative utility of a multidimensional clinical model; (4) anxiety severity as an independent correlate of SB intensity. These findings could inform risk stratification for SB and support targeted prevention strategies in high-risk clinical populations.

    Current literature extensively documents the prevalence of SB in patients with MDD. A large-scale meta-analysis reveals a lifetime SB prevalence of 23.7% among MDD patients.41 For individuals experiencing their first MDD episode and receiving outpatient care, SB detection rates range from 17.3% to 20.1%,42,43 comparable to hospitalization-based SB detection rates (17.3%),41 but notably lower than those observed in chronic/recurrent MDD cohorts (20–36%).24,25 Intriguingly, our study identified a significantly reduced SB detection rate of 13.46%, which markedly deviates from the previously reported benchmarks. This observed pattern suggests that illness chronicity, rather than treatment setting alone, may be a more significant modulator of SB vulnerability. The coexistence of heightened psychotic symptoms (PSS), anxiety severity (HAMA), and metabolic abnormalities in SB patients aligns with integrative “brain-body” models of suicidality, wherein neuroendocrine-metabolic dysregulation synergizes with psychopathological processes was associated with increased SB risk.28,35 Notably, thyroid dysfunction and lipid anomalies may impair prefrontal-limbic circuitry through neuroinflammatory pathways,35 while visceral adiposity (reflected by elevated WC) co-occurred with insulin resistance, potentially reflecting a shared pathway underlying mood dysregulation.37 The shorter disease duration in SB subgroups further suggests acute biopsychosocial decompensation—rather than illness chronicity—may drive SB emergence, urging reevaluation of duration-based risk paradigms.

    Secondly, comparative analyses of sociodemographic and clinical features between MDD patients with and without SB revealed significantly heightened severity of psychopathology, psychological symptoms, and metabolic disturbances in the SB subgroup. This aligns with findings from large-scale studies in Chinese populations, which have consistently reported similar clinical and metabolic abnormalities associated with SB in MDD.26,28,37,40,44,45 While the precise mechanisms, including lipid dysregulation, HPA axis dysfunction, neuroplasticity alterations, and inflammation, remain to be fully elucidated,35 our findings suggest that SB in MDD co-occurs with characterized by a more adverse psychophysical state.

    Thirdly, we identified several key factors associated with SB in MDD patients. These factors are multifaceted, encompassing both clinical symptoms (eg, PSS, HAMA, CGI-SI scores) and metabolic parameters. Prior research has underscored the roles of elevated anxiety symptoms, psychotic features, and specific lipid markers as factors associated with SB in MDD.27,45,46 However, it has to be emphasized that LDL-C levels were considered by this study yet as an inverse predictor of SB in patients with MDD, contrary to the vast majority of other metabolic parameters addressed in this study. A large-scale meta-analysis yielded similar conclusions and was not confounded by ethnicity,47,48 which emphasizes the special status of LDL-C in distinguishing it from other metabolic parameters in terms of their association with SB. While the specific clinical parameters identified in our study may differ, these findings collectively emphasize the significant association value of clinical and biological indicators in assessing SB risk in MDD.

    Fourthly, we developed discriminative models for characterizing SB in MDD patients. Our analyses demonstrated robust discriminative ability of PSS, HAMA, and CGI-SI scores in distinguishing patients with and without SB. Previous studies have also explored similar approaches, achieving success using peripheral blood inflammatory cytokines and some other serum indicators.49–51 Among these, the combination of IL-17C and TNF-β, and the combination of IL-1α, IL-5, and ICAM-1 demonstrated accuracy in distinguishing SB with AUC values of 0.848 and 0.850, respectively. However, the combination of α1-antitrypsin, transferrin, HDL-C, and apolipoprotein A1 demonstrated higher discriminatory ability (AUC = 0.928).49–51 Our model, with a combined AUC of 0.87, also demonstrates strong capacity to differentiate SB subgroups, highlighting the efficacy of traditional clinical indicators even in the absence of advanced biomarkers.

    Finally, by assessing SB severity as a continuous variable, we found HAMA scores to be predictive of more severe SB. The detrimental impact of anxiety symptoms on SB is well-established, with studies in both general university populations and MDD patients highlighting the role of anxiety in increasing the risk of suicidal ideation and behaviors.52–54 Consequently, MDD patients with comorbid anxiety may require augmented treatment and care to mitigate the potential for SB.

    Study limitations include: (1) inherent cross-sectional causality constraints; (2) acute-phase sample homogeneity, limiting generalizability to chronic MDD; (3) undocumented antipsychotics and antidepressants exposures potentially confounding metabolic findings; and (4) potential circularity in CGI-SI assessment, as clinicians’ awareness of suicide risk may inflate severity ratings. Although collinearity tests showed no critical bias, CGI-SI likely captures global severity context rather than SB-specific pathways. (5) some key psychosocial determinants of SB—including recent life stressors, substance use patterns, and socioeconomic status—were not systematically assessed. Future longitudinal designs tracking SB trajectories from first-admission through maintenance phases—while incorporating blinded CGI ratings—could elucidate dynamic risk interactions and reduce assessment bias.

    Conclusion

    This study establishes the clinical and metabolic signatures of SB in first-hospitalized MDD patients. The operationalized discriminative model, leveraging clinical and metabolic variables, shows utility in distinguishing high-risk subgroups.

    Data Sharing Statement

    All relevant data are within the manuscript.

    Acknowledgments

    We express our gratitude to all the medical staff and patients who participated in our study, as well as to those who contributed to the diagnosis and clinical evaluation of the subjects.

    Funding

    The authors received no specific funding for this work.

    Disclosure

    The authors report no conflicts of interest in this work.

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    32. Singh B, Sundaresh V. Thyroid hormone use in mood disorders: revisiting the evidence. J Clin Psychiatry. 2022;83(5). doi:10.4088/JCP.22ac14590

    33. Yajima H, Amano I, Ishii S, et al. Absence of thyroid hormone induced delayed dendritic arborization in mouse primary hippocampal neurons through insufficient expression of brain-derived neurotrophic factor. Front Endocrinol. 2021;12:629100. doi:10.3389/fendo.2021.629100

    34. Sui L, Ren WW, Li BM. Administration of thyroid hormone increases reelin and brain-derived neurotrophic factor expression in rat hippocampus in vivo. Brain Res. 2010;1313:9–24. doi:10.1016/j.brainres.2009.12.010

    35. Capuzzi E, Caldiroli A, Capellazzi M, Tagliabue I, Buoli M, Clerici M. Biomarkers of suicidal behaviors: a comprehensive critical review. Adv Clin Chem. 2020;96:179–216. doi:10.1016/bs.acc.2019.11.005

    36. Girgis RR. The neurobiology of suicide in psychosis: a systematic review. J Psychopharmacol. 2020;34(8):811–819. doi:10.1177/0269881120936919

    37. Liu W, Wu Z, Sun M, et al. Association between fasting blood glucose and thyroid stimulating hormones and suicidal tendency and disease severity in patients with major depressive disorder. Bosn J Basic Med Sci. 2022;22(4):635–642. doi:10.17305/bjbms.2021.6754

    38. Ji Y, Liu X, Zheng S, et al. Validation and application of the Chinese version of the Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale: suicidality and cognitive deficits in patients with major depressive disorder. J Affect Disord. 2023;342:139–147. doi:10.1016/j.jad.2023.09.014

    39. Li Z, Wang Z, Zhang C, et al. Reduced ENA78 levels as novel biomarker for major depressive disorder and venlafaxine efficiency: result from a prospective longitudinal study. Psychoneuroendocrinology. 2017;81:113–121. doi:10.1016/j.psyneuen.2017.03.015

    40. Zhou Y, Ren W, Sun Q, et al. The association of clinical correlates, metabolic parameters, and thyroid hormones with suicide attempts in first-episode and drug-naïve patients with major depressive disorder comorbid with anxiety: a large-scale cross-sectional study. Transl Psychiatry. 2021;11(1):97. doi:10.1038/s41398-021-01234-9

    41. Dong M, Wang S-B, Li Y, et al. Prevalence of suicidal behaviors in patients with major depressive disorder in China: a comprehensive meta-analysis. J Affect Disord. 2018;225:32–39. doi:10.1016/j.jad.2017.07.043

    42. Zhao K, Zhou S, Shi X, et al. Potential metabolic monitoring indicators of suicide attempts in first episode and drug naive young patients with major depressive disorder: a cross-sectional study. BMC Psychiatry. 2020;20(1). doi:10.1186/s12888-020-02791-x

    43. Liu J, Jia F, Li C, et al. Association between body mass index and suicide attempts in Chinese patients of a hospital in Shanxi district with first-episode drug-naïve major depressive disorder. J Affect Disord. 2023;339:377–383. doi:10.1016/j.jad.2023.06.064

    44. Jiang Y, Lu Y, Cai Y, Liu C, Zhang XY. Prevalence of suicide attempts and correlates among first-episode and untreated major depressive disorder patients with comorbid dyslipidemia of different ages of onset in a Chinese Han population: a large cross-sectional study. BMC Psychiatry. 2023;23(1):10. doi:10.1186/s12888-022-04511-z

    45. Li H, Huang Y, Wu F, Lang X, Zhang XY. Prevalence and related factors of suicide attempts in first-episode and untreated Chinese Han outpatients with psychotic major depression. J Affect Disord. 2020;270:108–113. doi:10.1016/j.jad.2020.03.093

    46. Shen Y, Wu F, Zhou Y, et al. Association of thyroid dysfunction with suicide attempts in first-episode and drug naïve patients with major depressive disorder. J Affect Disord. 2019;259:180–185. doi:10.1016/j.jad.2019.08.067

    47. Li H, Zhang X, Sun Q, Zou R, Li Z, Liu S. Association between serum lipid concentrations and attempted suicide in patients with major depressive disorder: a meta-analysis. PLoS One. 2020;15(12):e0243847. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0243847

    48. Segoviano-Mendoza M, Cárdenas-de la Cruz M, Salas-Pacheco J, et al. Hypocholesterolemia is an independent risk factor for depression disorder and suicide attempt in Northern Mexican population. BMC Psychiatry. 2018;18(1). doi:10.1186/s12888-018-1596-z

    49. Xu Y, Liang J, Gao W, et al. Peripheral blood cytokines as potential diagnostic biomarkers of suicidal ideation in patients with first-episode drug-naïve major depressive disorder. Front Public Health. 2022;10:1021309. doi:10.3389/fpubh.2022.1021309

    50. Xu Y, Liang J, Sun Y, et al. Serum cytokines-based biomarkers in the diagnosis and monitoring of therapeutic response in patients with major depressive disorder. Int Immunopharmacol. 2023;118:110108. doi:10.1016/j.intimp.2023.110108

    51. Bai S, Fang L, Xie J, Bai H, Wang W, Chen JJ. Potential biomarkers for diagnosing major depressive disorder patients with suicidal ideation. J Inflamm Res. 2021;14:495–503. doi:10.2147/jir.S297930

    52. Casey SM, Varela A, Marriott JP, Coleman CM, Harlow BL. The influence of diagnosed mental health conditions and symptoms of depression and/or anxiety on suicide ideation, plan, and attempt among college students: findings from the Healthy Minds Study, 2018–2019. J Affect Disord. 2022;298(Pt A):464–471. doi:10.1016/j.jad.2021.11.006

    53. Moller CI, Badcock PB, Hetrick SE, et al. Predictors of suicidal ideation severity among treatment-seeking young people with major depressive disorder: the role of state and trait anxiety. Aust N Z J Psychiatry. 2023;57(8):1150–1162. doi:10.1177/00048674221144262

    54. Sanches M, Nguyen LK, Chung TH, et al. Anxiety symptoms and suicidal thoughts and behaviors among patients with mood disorders. J Affect Disord. 2022;307:171–177. doi:10.1016/j.jad.2022.03.046

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  • Totnes artist gives away £84,000 of work to comfort ill

    Totnes artist gives away £84,000 of work to comfort ill

    Artist Anita Nowinska is donating paintings worth £84,000 to a hospice to help comfort those who are ill.

    Nowinska, 60, from Totnes, Devon, said she decided to donate her original paintings “to bring light into difficult places”.

    “Painting is what keeps me well, but the paintings were building up, and I wanted them to do more than sit in storage, to bring joy to others,” she said.

    Forty five paintings will be donated to St Peter’s Hospice in Bristol and Nowinska has pledged to donate half of all her future work.

    Nowinska’s journey into painting came from personal crisis after a career in recruitment ended in the late 1990s.

    She found herself with no home, no job, no partner and expecting a child so turned to art as a lifeline.

    In the darkness of that moment, quite literally by candlelight after her electricity was cut off, she said she rediscovered a box of pastels.

    That night, she created her first flower painting.

    “While I was painting, the stress just melted away. I felt peace for the first time in ages,” she said.

    Nowinska said she received a call a few days later from a local gallery which, having seen a painting she had framed as a gift for her mother, asked if she had more work to exhibit.

    “It felt like the universe was answering my prayer,” she said.

    She said she had embraced her art fully, raising her son in Devon, where nature and creativity became “central to her life and healing”.

    “Even a dandelion growing through pavement cracks has beauty, that’s what I try to capture,” she said.

    Her work has been exhibited across the UK, but 2024 brought new challenges for her with the market for her work tightening, leading to a decision to donate 50% of her work.

    “If one painting can bring a moment of relief or joy to someone in pain, then it’s worth everything,” she said.

    “Art is meant to be shared. If it can bring comfort, then it’s doing its job.”

    She asked for any hospices, hospitals and care homes interested in taking her work in the future to get in touch via her website.

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  • Bike check: Maya Kingma’s Cannondale LAB71 SuperSix EVO

    Bike check: Maya Kingma’s Cannondale LAB71 SuperSix EVO

    Unless you’re Maya Kingma.

    The former professional triathlete signed with EF Education-Oatly last month and soon learned that her first race would be the Giro d’Italia Women. Fortunately, Maya is an endurance athlete and is looking forward to taking on the eight-stage Giro with her Cannondale LAB71 SuperSix EVO.

    Our mechanics have been working closely with Maya to get her set up dialed in before the race kicks off on Sunday. She will ride Vittoria Corsa Pro 30mm tires, offering her the low rolling resistance and traction she’ll need for Italy’s roads.

    The Fizik Solocush Tacky bar tape allows her to grip with confidence and in comfort as she navigates the winding descents. Maya will track all her data using her Wahoo ELEMNT BOLT 3.

    “I’m new to Cannondale but I’m already so impressed with my bike,” Maya said. “It feels super fast, especially when accelerating. When you stand on the pedals, the power transfer feels really direct. And with the handling, it feels very secure so I feel like I can really put it inside in the corners. It lets me give a little more, go a little harder. You can tell – this bike just wants to go fast.”

    Check out the full specs of Maya’s Cannondale LAB71 SuperSix EVO.

    Maya Kingma’s Cannondale LAB71 SuperSix EVO

    Frame:

    Cannondale LAB71 SuperSix Evo size 48

    Cockpit:

    Cannondale System Bar 100X380

    Bar tape:

    Fizik Solocush Tacky

    Groupset:

    Shimano DURA-ACE Di2

    Cranks:

    FSA K-Force Team Edition

    Pedals:

    Wahoo SPEEDPLAY AERO

    Wheelset

    Vision Metron 45 RS

    Tires:

    Vittoria Corsa Pro 30mm

    Saddle:

    Fizik Tempo Argo R1 – 150 Team

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  • Fluminense book Club World Cup semi-final place with win over Al-Hilal | Club World Cup 2025

    Fluminense book Club World Cup semi-final place with win over Al-Hilal | Club World Cup 2025

    Brazil’s Fluminense continued their fairytale run at the Club World Cup with a 2-1 victory over Saudi Arabia’s Al-Hilal on Friday in Orlando to book their place in the semi-finals.

    The tournament underdogs struck first through Matheus Martinelli in the opening half before Al-Hilal hit back after the break when Marcos Leonardo found the net.
    But Fluminense refused to be denied and regained their lead in the 70th minute through Hércules to secure a memorable win over Al-Hilal in the first meeting between the two clubs.

    “If you asked me a while ago whether we would reach this stage, a semi-final, I wouldn’t say I wouldn’t believe it because I believe in everything that I do, but it was so far away from us,” said the captain Thiago Silva. The Brazilian side, who entered the tournament as one of the biggest long shots, will now face the winners of Friday’s other quarter-final clash between Palmeiras and Chelsea.

    Fluminense opened the scoring when João Cancelo failed to clear his line, allowing Gabriel Fuentes to roll the ball to Martinelli who brilliantly picked out the far post with a left-footed strike into the top right corner.

    “Many people didn’t believe in our potential, in our team but each game and each step we proved we can be tough,” said Martinelli, who will miss the semi-final after picking up a yellow card shortly after his goal. When we step on the pitch it’s difficult to beat our team.”

    During first-half stoppage time, a rising Kalidou Koulibaly headed the ball on target but a fully-stretched Fabio used his left hand to swat it away and keep Fluminense in front.

    Al-Hilal made a quick start to the second half and drew level after a cushioned header from a wide-open Koulibaly hit the legs of Leonardo, who quickly reset his feet and fired home from close range.

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    Moments later, Fluminense’s Samuel Xavier looked to have tripped Leonardo in the area, prompting the referee to immediately point to the spot, but after a VAR review it was considered “normal football contact” and the call was reversed.

    Fluminense nearly restored their lead in the 55th minute when German Cano broke free but rather than shooting he tried to take the ball around Yassine Bounou and the Moroccan goalkeeper managed to poke away the ball.

    Hércules, who scored off the bench in the last-16 win over Inter Milan, came in for Martinelli after the break and struck again when he took a brilliant touch into the area and fired into the bottom corner.

    “I really want to congratulate my squad for the way that they played, they poured their hearts out on the pitch tonight,” said the Al-Hilal coach Simone Inzaghi. “And of course we are sorry but we need to be proud.”

    The match began with players and fans observing a minute’s silence in memory of Liverpool’s Portuguese forward Diogo Jota and his younger brother Andre Silva, who both died in a car crash on Thursday.

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  • Saved by the Bel: Cameroon make history with first-ever win

    Saved by the Bel: Cameroon make history with first-ever win

    LAUSANNE (Switzerland) – Cameroon made their fans back home proud by defeating Dominican Republic in FIBA U19 Basketball World Cup 2025 classification action for their first win in the history of the competition.

    Hermann Bel scored only one-field goal in this game, but it turned out to be the most important one. Bel scored a go-ahead put-back basket with just 6.2 seconds in the game to break the tie and get the win.

    Cameroon’s hero

    Cameroon rallied from 18 points down to knock off the Americas side 86-84 in Classification 13-16 action. Noe Bom led the way with 19 points, Franck Belibi had 18 points, Wilf Kingue collected 18 points and 8 assists and Amadou Seini contributed 6 points and 14 rebounds.

    Ronny Ewanke shined with a double-double of 18 points and 11 rebounds.

    Cameroon will next play against the winner of China versus Jordan for 13th place.

    It was a victory the Africans had hoped would come earlier.

    Steve Tchiengang’s team came so close to getting their first win in the second game of the group stage against Australia. The Africans led by six points with 50 seconds to play but ended up watching Australia take the game to overtime where Cameroon lost 101-96 in double OT.

    Cameroon then lost a 14-point lead in the Round of 16 and were defeated 86-82 to Israel in the Round of 16. That was followed by a loss to Argentina in Classification 9-16 action.

    Today, however, they emerge victorious.

    Support your favorite player and vote:

    Who will be named FIBA U19 Basketball World Cup 2025 TISSOT MVP?

    FIBA

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  • For the First Time, Scientists Witness an Undersea "Slow Slip" Earthquake Unzip – SciTechDaily

    1. For the First Time, Scientists Witness an Undersea “Slow Slip” Earthquake Unzip  SciTechDaily
    2. Scientists detect a rare slow-motion earthquake along Japan’s tsunami fault  Earth.com
    3. World-first: Slow-motion earthquake that travels miles in weeks captured, stuns scientists  Yahoo
    4. Scientists capture slow-motion earthquake in action  Phys.org

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  • Prompt versus delayed triple therapy in COPD: Solutions to time-relate

    Prompt versus delayed triple therapy in COPD: Solutions to time-relate

    Introduction

    Maintenance therapy is recommended for patients diagnosed with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). These treatments include long-acting muscarinic antagonists (LAMAs) and long-acting beta2-agonists (LABAs), with an inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) added according to the frequency of exacerbations.1 Currently, several single-inhaler triple combinations of these treatment classes are available.

    Besides the general recommendations for which inhaler combination to use, the question of when to initiate maintenance therapy with these inhalers has been put forward. Recent observational studies have investigated the comparative effectiveness of prompt versus delayed timing of initiating single-inhaler triple inhaler therapy after a COPD exacerbation.2–6 These studies found that prompt initiation of single-inhaler triple therapy was associated with significant reductions in the rates of moderate and severe exacerbations, compared with delayed initiation. Such observational studies present major methodological challenges related to the definition of timing of initiation in relation to the timing of the outcome events, that can result in time-related biases.

    We review these studies and discuss methodological aspects of their study design that can introduce bias in the results. We illustrate the biases using a general practice clinical database and present results of the analysis using an approach that avoids these biases.

    The Published Studies

    As the published observational studies used a similar design, we describe the first one in detail to explain the approach.2 The Mannino study evaluated the impact of prompt versus delayed initiation of single-inhaler triple therapy (SITT) with fluticasone furoate, umeclidinium, and vilanterol, following a COPD exacerbation, using a US claims database. Patients with a COPD exacerbation between September 2017 and September 2019 were identified, with the first exacerbation occurring in that period taken as the index exacerbation. The index date was taken as the date of discharge for exacerbations requiring hospitalisation and the date of the physician visit for moderate exacerbations. The study cohort was formed exclusively from those who initiated a SITT within 6 months after the index date, with SITT timing classified as prompt (initiation within 30 days after the index date; N = 529) or delayed (initiation 31–180 days after the index date; N = 1,375). Patients were aged 40 years or more at the index date, had at least 12 months of continuous health insurance coverage before index (baseline), no exacerbation and no SITT prescription during this baseline period. The subjects needed at least 6 months of coverage after the index. Subjects were followed from the index date until the end of the observation period for the occurrence of COPD exacerbations and other outcomes. The technique of inverse probability of treatment weighting was used to adjust the rate ratio of these outcomes for differences in baseline characteristics between the prompt and delayed groups. Patients in the prompt initiation group had a 21% lower rate of COPD exacerbation (rate ratio 0.79; 95% CI: 0.65–0.94) and a 28% lower incidence of a first exacerbation (hazard ratio 0.72; 95% CI: 0.62–0.83) compared with delayed initiators.

    Methodological Issues

    A randomized trial of this question would enroll patients at the index exacerbation and randomly allocate them to either the prompt or delayed treatment strategy. The allocation of the two groups is thus known at the time of randomization (index date) with outcome events counted as of this time, and which can thus occur prior to treatment initiation. The published observational studies, on the other hand, had to peek into “future” to define the two treatment groups, such as treatment initiation within 30 days after the index (prompt) or at 31–180 days after the index (delayed). This use of “future” time creates several methodological challenges and can lead to potential biases in observational studies. We use the Mannino study described in detail above as an example to explain the methodological issues.2

    The first methodological issue with the observational studies involves the outcome (exacerbations) allowed to occur prior to the initiation of triple therapy, which can introduce protopathic bias.7 Indeed, some physicians may wait for a second exacerbation, namely the first during follow-up, as an indication to initiate triple therapy, as per guidelines.1 Thus, it may not be the treatment that led to the exacerbation, but the reverse. In particular, patients with early exacerbations will likely receive their triple inhaler after day 30, when the exacerbation ended, and thus more likely to be classified in the “delayed” treatment group, a bias compounded by the longer duration of this delayed period. This could explain the observational study’s reported median times to the first COPD exacerbation of 367 versus 200 days for the prompt and delayed initiation groups, respectively.2 Moreover, the corresponding Kaplan–Meier curve shows that around 10% of the delayed group had their first exacerbation in the first 30 days, the period defining “prompt” treatment, and that 48% of that group had their first exacerbation before 6 months, the end of the “delayed” treatment period.

    The second methodological issue relates to the cohort selection that imposes a period of continuous health insurance coverage after the index date, resulting in potential selection bias from immortal time.8,9 Indeed, the cohort included only patients with at least 6 months of coverage after the index date, thus excluding patients who die in this 6-month period, even if they had initiated triple therapy and had exacerbations before death. By this criterion, patients must survive to initiate treatment, whether prompt or delayed, even if they had exacerbations before death. This imposition of 6 months of coverage after an index that inherently excludes deaths can result in selection bias that could favor one group over the other. The Mannino study reports that 25% of the original 668,011 subjects were excluded because they had less than 6 months of eligibility, with no information on mortality.2

    Study Design to Avoid Bias

    The study design that avoids these biases must attempt to emulate the randomized trial when using these observational data, while not looking into the future. The key with the randomized trial is that the timing of inhaler initiation, namely allocation to a prompt or delayed treatment regimen, is known at the time of randomisation, so that the two groups can be properly compared on the rate of exacerbation during a prespecified follow-up period after the index exacerbation. In this case, exacerbation events can precede the inhaler initiation but will follow the random treatment group assignment time. The difference in the rates between the two groups will provide the effect of prompt versus delayed treatment.

    The observational study must thus also seek to allocate “exposure” (prompt or delayed inhaler initiation) at the index date to avoid the methodological biases raised above when this exposure allocation is based on looking in the future. To accomplish this, it is important to recognize that a subject who has not yet received the inhaler at the index date could, in fact, belong to both the prompt and delayed group at that time point and up until inhaler therapy is initiated. To resolve this dilemma, the concept of “cloning” is used in observational research to assign each patient to the two possible treatment strategies (prompt and delayed inhaler initiation) that the patient could belong to at the index date.10–12 Thus, the patient is “cloned” so that their data are included twice in the analysis, though the follow-up will be censored according to the timing of the inhaler initiation and the outcome events, which could be counted in one, two, or none of the groups depending on where the clones are censored.

    As an illustration for the outcome of time to first exacerbation, consider, for example, a patient who initiates triple therapy on day 15, thus within 30 days (Figure 1, subject 1). This patient will generate two clones, a “prompt” clone that will be considered as exposed to the prompt treatment strategy for the entire follow-up, whose follow-up will end at the time of the event, and a “delayed” clone that will be considered as exposed to the delayed treatment strategy and censored at 14 days, the day at which we still did not know the membership of its parent. The second example (subject 2) is a patient who initiates triple therapy on day 60 (during the 31–180-day period). This patient will generate two clones, the first is a “prompt” clone that will be censored at 30 days, the time they can no longer be prompt, and a “delayed” clone that will be classified as “delayed” exposure for the entire follow-up, whose follow-up will end at the time of the event (Figure 1, subject 2). The third example (subject 3) does not initiate triple therapy at all during follow-up. The “prompt” clone will be censored at 30 days and the delayed clone follow-up will end at the time of the event within the 31–180 period (Figure 1, subject 3). The fourth example (subject 4) is a patient who initiates triple therapy on day 35 (during the 31–180-day period), who has their first exacerbation on day 20. The two generated clones, one prompt and one delayed, will both have an outcome event at day 20, at which point their follow-up stops (Figure 1, subject 4). Figure 2 displays the corresponding cloning patterns illustrating the situation where the outcome involves the frequency of exacerbations over time.

    Figure 1 Illustration of cloning approach for the analysis of time to first exacerbation.

    Figure 2 Illustration of cloning approach for the analysis of the frequency of exacerbations.

    This cloning approach addresses the bias resulting from peeking into the future to define exposure. Nonetheless, simply computing the corresponding cumulative incidences or rates of exacerbation for the two cloned treatment strategies will still produce bias from giving equal weights to the clones. This is addressed by accounting for the artificial censoring of the clones at specific times, which can be done using inverse probability of censoring weights (ICPW).11

    Illustration

    We formed a cohort of patients with COPD from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), a primary care database from the United Kingdom (UK) that contains primary care medical records for over 50 million people enrolled in more than 1800 general practices. These data have shown to be of high quality, including for studies of COPD.13–17

    The study cohort included all patients with a diagnosis of COPD, treated with maintenance therapy, at or after age 40 who had a moderate or severe exacerbation of COPD after 15 September 2017, the year single-inhaler triple therapy became available in the UK. A moderate exacerbation was defined by a new prescription for prednisolone, while a severe exacerbation was defined as a hospitalization for COPD (ICD-10: J41, J42, J43, J44). The first such exacerbation defined the index date. All subjects had to have at least one year of medical history prior to the index date (baseline period). Patients receiving triple therapy, either in a single inhaler or multiple inhalers, in the year before the exacerbation defining cohort entry, were excluded. All subjects were followed for up to one year after the index date, with follow-up ending at death, 31 March 2021, or the end of the patient’s registration in the practice, whichever occurred first.

    The covariates measured at baseline included age, sex, body mass index (BMI), smoking status and alcohol abuse. The severity of COPD was measured using the type of index exacerbation (moderate, severe), the number of COPD hospitalisations and the use of other respiratory drugs (SABA, SAMA, theophylline), during the one-year baseline period, as well as by the percent predicted FEV1. A prescription for prednisolone, LABA, LAMA, ICS, and respiratory antibiotics in the month prior to the index date were also considered. Baseline co-morbidity in the one-year baseline period was measured using clinical diagnoses, hospitalizations, and prescriptions (Table 1).

    Table 1 Baseline Characteristics of the Overall Study Cohort of 91,958 Subjects with an Index Exacerbation, Generating 91,958 Clones of Prompt and 91,958 Clones of Delayed Initiation of Single-Inhaler Triple Therapy, After Weighing by Inverse Probability of Censoring

    Each cohort subject was cloned and assigned to both the prompt initiators arm (initiation within 30 days of the index date) and to the delayed initiators arm (initiation 31–180 days after the index date). Within each treatment group, clones were artificially censored at the time that the treatment they received was no longer compatible with their group membership. To account for the bias introduced by this artificial censoring mechanism, IPCW was estimated by pooled logistic regression, separately for prompt initiators at day 30, for delayed initiators at index date, between day 1 and day 30 and at day 180, as a function of the baseline covariates. IPCW estimation for prompt initiators, delayed initiators at index date and at day 180, was based on time updated values of the baseline covariates and the type of initial exacerbation (moderate or severe). For the delayed initiators, estimation of IPCW between day 1 and day 30 also included the time since cohort entry (linear, quadratic and cubic terms). Only prompt initiators starting treatment between day 16 and 30 were upweighted to replace clones censored on day 30. Similarly, only delayed initiators between day 152 and 180 were upweighted to replace clones censored on day 180. In addition to the artificial censoring associated with the cloning process, patients were also censored when they initiated triple therapy in multiple inhalers (same day prescription for LABA, LAMA and ICS). To account for this type of censoring another IPCW was estimated in the full cohort and before cloning, using pooled logistic regression and with the same set of variables. Final time-varying weights for each section of person-time were obtained from the cumulative product of all IPCWs.

    For data analysis, we used the Cox proportional hazards model to compare the incidence of an exacerbation during the one-year follow-up, weighted for the inverse of the probability of censoring. The corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the hazard ratios were obtained using the non-parametric bootstrap method based on 1000 random samples. Similarly, weighted cumulative incidence curves were estimated over the one-year follow-up, as well as differences and ratios of cumulative incidence at 3-month time points during follow-up.

    We also replicated the approach used in the Mannino study, as described above.2 Briefly, the study cohort included exclusively the subjects who had a prompt (within 30 days after the index date) or delayed (31–180 days after the index date classification) treatment initiation, restricted to those who had no exacerbation prior to the index date and at least 6 months of coverage after the index date. Inverse probability of treatment weighting, with stabilised weights, was used to adjust the hazard ratio of exacerbation, using the bootstrap method based on 1000 random samples outcomes to estimate the corresponding confidence interval. Since our study cohort on which the cloning analysis was based included subjects with exacerbations prior to the index date, we repeated the analysis, but not restricted to those who had no exacerbation prior to the index date and at least 6 months of coverage after the index date. The study protocol was approved by CPRD’s Research Data Governance Committee (protocol # 23_002846) and the Research Ethics Board of the Jewish General Hospital (protocol # JGH-2024-3847), Montreal Canada.

    Results

    The overall study cohort included 91,958 eligible subjects who had an exacerbation after September 2017. There were 4,876 new-users of single-inhaler triple therapy within 180 days after the index COPD exacerbation. Of these, 1,394 were prompt initiators and 3,482 delayed initiators of single-inhaler triple therapy, with 87,082 who either received it after 180 days or not at all. The prompt initiators appear more severe, with lower FEV1 percent predicted and more likely to have a hospitalised exacerbation as the index event (Table S1).

    The cloning of these subjects generated 91,958 prompt initiator clones and the same number of delayed initiator clones, including 426 clones who initiated triple therapy in multiple inhalers on the index date and 419 clones who initiated single-inhaler triple therapy on the index date (Table 1).

    Of the 91,532 clones assigned to the prompt initiation strategy, 18,748 had a moderate or severe exacerbation after the index date, during 86,431 person-months of follow-up, resulting in an unadjusted incidence rate of a first exacerbation of 0.217 per patient per month (Table 2). The corresponding incidence rate for clones assigned to the delayed initiation strategy was 0.130 per patient per month. After weighing for censoring, the incidence rates are 0.101 and 0.103 per person per month, respectively, for the clones assigned to the prompt and delayed initiation regimens (HR 0.98; 95% CI: 0.80–1.19). The adjusted cumulative incidence curves of a moderate or severe exacerbation, weighted for censoring, are displayed in Figure 3. For severe exacerbations, the weighted incidence rates are 0.011 and 0.008 per person per month for the clones assigned to the prompt and delayed initiation regimens, respectively (HR 1.26; 95% CI: 0.81–1.96), with the corresponding adjusted cumulative incidence curves displayed in Figure 4. For the cumulative incidence curves given in Figures 3 and 4 the estimates of the differences and ratios of these cumulative incidences between the prompt and delayed initiators at different time points in follow-up are displayed in Table 3.

    Table 2 Hazard Ratio of a Moderate or Severe Exacerbation for Prompt versus Delayed Initiation of Single-Inhaler Triple Therapy, Estimated Using Cloning to Define the Treatment Strategy Over Time, Weighed by Inverse Probability of Censoring

    Table 3 Difference and Ratio of the Cumulative Incidence of Exacerbation Over Follow-up Time Comparing Prompt versus Delayed Initiation of Single-Inhaler Triple Therapy, Estimated Using Cloning to Define the Treatment Strategy Over Time, Weighted by Inverse Probability of Censoring

    Figure 3 Cumulative incidence of the first moderate or severe exacerbation, for the prompt and delayed initiators, using the cloning approach, weighted by inverse probability of censoring.

    Figure 4 Cumulative incidence of the first severe exacerbation, for the prompt and delayed initiators, using the cloning approach, weighted by inverse probability of censoring.

    For the replication of the Mannino study, the analysis was restricted to the 2,650 new-users of single-inhaler triple therapy within 6 months after the index COPD exacerbation, with no prior exacerbations and at least 6 months of follow-up. Of these, 809 were prompt initiators of single-inhaler triple therapy and 1,841 were delayed initiators, who were similar in terms of baseline clinical characteristics after weighing (Table 4). The hazard ratio of a first moderate or severe exacerbation was 0.73 (95% CI: 0.65–0.81), comparing prompt with delayed initiation, while it was 0.58 (95% CI: 0.46–0.74) for a severe exacerbation (Table 5). These results were similar after removing the restrictions of 6 months of coverage and no prior exacerbations (Table 5).

    Table 4 Baseline Characteristics of the 809 Prompt and 1,841 Delayed Initiators of Single-Inhaler Triple Therapy, Identified from the Cohort of 91,958 Subjects with an Index Exacerbation, Crude and Weighted by Inverse Probability of Treatment, Used to Replicate the Approach of Mannino

    Table 5 Hazard Ratio of Moderate or Severe Exacerbation for Prompt versus Delayed Initiation of Single-Inhaler Triple Therapy, Used to Replicate the Approach of Mannino, Estimated Using the Cox Proportional Hazards Model, Adjusted by Inverse Probability of Treatment Weighing

    Discussion

    In this large-scale real-world study, we found that prompt treatment with single-inhaler triple therapy after a COPD exacerbation was not more effective than delayed treatment on reducing the incidence of a subsequent exacerbation. We showed that the methods used by previous studies that suggested significant effectiveness with prompt therapy, were affected by major time-related biases that favored the prompt treatment group.2,3,6 For example, our illustration showed that, using the corrected approach, the hazard ratio of a COPD exacerbation was 0.98 (95% CI: 0.80–1.19) with prompt versus delayed treatment, while the corresponding HR with the time-related biased method employed by the previous studies was a significant 0.73 (95% CI: 0.65–0.81).

    The time-related biases affecting the previous studies first involved “peeking into the future” to define prompt and delayed treatment, with a return to time zero to start follow-up for outcome exacerbation events. This approach thus allowed treatment initiation occurring after outcome events, which introduces protopathic bias.7 Indeed, multiple exacerbations, the study outcome, are an indication to initiate triple therapy, as recommended by the GOLD guidelines.1 The other source of bias, namely selection bias from immortal time, resulting from imposing 6 months of coverage after the index date, was present in two of the studies to date.2,6 This criterion excludes subjects who died during this period, when they could have initiated triple therapy and had exacerbations, which could be differential in the two treatment groups. While other studies did not impose this 6-month condition, they did introduce protopathic bias.3–5 Our bias analysis showed that this 6-month imposition did not affect the findings, implying that the major time-related bias in these studies is protopathic bias, a bias present in all studies.

    This approach has also been used in several other observational studies have investigated the comparative effectiveness of prompt versus delayed initiation of triple therapy, though including triple therapy in multiple inhalers after a COPD exacerbation.18–22 These studies also found that prompt initiation of triple therapy was associated with significant reductions in the rates of exacerbations, and related costs, compared with delayed initiation. These findings are thus also affected by the same protopathic bias.

    The “cloning” approach that we used is specifically designed to avoid the protopathic bias resulting from peeking into the future to define the treatment strategy. This cloning approach emulates a randomized trial by allocating the treatment strategy, prompt or delayed initiation of triple therapy, as of the index date, thus not looking in the future. Cloning involves creating data replicates of each patient, one for each of the study treatment strategies (in this case, prompt and delayed initiation) that the patient could belong to at the index date.10–12 The patient’s data are thus included twice in the analysis, censored by the timing of exposure and outcome events. While the same outcome events can be counted in multiple regimens in this approach, a censor-weighted data analysis and the bootstrap can account for the replicated data.

    Our study has some limitations typical to observational studies. The inhaler information is based on written prescriptions and can thus introduce some exposure misclassification, including on the timing of the actual treatment initiation, which can lag behind the prescription date. Thus, the 30- and 180-day thresholds used to define prompt and delayed treatment will necessarily be affected by this misclassification, which should differentially affect the shorter prompt treatment period. Indeed, we can assume that some subjects with a prescription date just prior to 30 days will be misclassified as prompt initiators if they in fact initiate their inhaler after 30 days. The use of censoring weights, however, because they are calculated using the observed exposure timing, does not account for this misclassification. To account for such exposure measurement error would require validating exposure in a subset of the study population and incorporating sensitivity analyses alongside censoring weights. Also, the outcome of a moderate exacerbation is defined only based on a prescription for prednisolone which, while a common practice in the UK, could introduce some misclassification. Our study also has strengths, besides the cloning approach that avoids the time-related biases of previous studies. Indeed, this approach is not affected by confounding as the cloning results in the same patients being replicated, making the two comparison groups identical on all subject characteristics.

    In conclusion, this large-scale real-world study found that prompt treatment with single-inhaler triple therapy after a COPD exacerbation was not more effective than delayed treatment on reducing the incidence of a subsequent exacerbation. We showed that the methods used by previous studies that suggested significant effectiveness with prompt therapy, were affected by time-related biases that favored the prompt treatment group. For example, using the corrected approach, we found no reduction in the risk of a COPD exacerbation with prompt versus delayed treatment, while the time-related biased method used in previous studies suggested a significant 27% reduction in the outcome event.

    Data Sharing Statement

    This study is based in part on data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink obtained under license from the UK Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency. The data are provided by patients and collected by the UK National Health Service as part of their care and support. Because electronic health records are classified as “sensitive data” by the UK Data Protection Act, information governance restrictions (to protect patient confidentiality) prevent data sharing via public deposition. Data are available with approval through the individual constituent entities controlling access to the data. Specifically, the primary care data can be requested via application to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (https://www.cprd.com).

    Author Contributions

    All authors made a significant contribution to the work reported, whether that is in the conception, study design, execution, acquisition of data, analysis and interpretation, or in all these areas; took part in drafting, revising or critically reviewing the article; gave final approval of the version to be published; have agreed on the journal to which the article has been submitted; and agree to be accountable for all aspects of the work.

    Funding

    This research was funded in part by grants from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) and the Canadian Foundation for Innovation (CFI). Pr. Suissa is the recipient of the Distinguished James McGill Professorship award.

    Disclosure

    SS attended, in the last three years, scientific advisory committee meetings or received speaking fees from AstraZeneca, Boehringer-Ingelheim, Novartis, and Panalgo. The authors report no other conflicts of interest in this work.

    References

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    2. Mannino D, Bogart M, Germain G, et al. Benefit of prompt versus delayed use of single-inhaler Fluticasone Furoate/Umeclidinium/Vilanterol (FF/UMEC/VI) following a COPD exacerbation. Int J Chron Obstruct Pulmon Dis. 2022;17:491–504. doi:10.2147/COPD.S337668

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    4. Strange C, Tkacz J, Schinkel J, et al. Exacerbations and real-world outcomes after single-inhaler triple therapy of Budesonide/Glycopyrrolate/Formoterol Fumarate, among patients with COPD: results from the EROS (US) Study. Int J Chron Obstruct Pulmon Dis. 2023;18:2245–2256. doi:10.2147/COPD.S432963

    5. Czira A, Akiyama S, Ishii T, et al. Benefit of prompt vs delayed initiation of triple therapy following an exacerbation in patients with COPD in Japan: a retrospective cohort study. Int J Chron Obstruct Pulmon Dis. 2023;18:2933–2953. doi:10.2147/COPD.S419119

    6. Mannino D, DiRocco K, Germain G, et al. Fluticasone Furoate/Umeclidinium/Vilanterol initiation following a COPD exacerbation: benefits of prompt initiation on COPD outcomes. Adv Ther. 2024;41(12):4557–4580. doi:10.1007/s12325-024-02999-3

    7. Horwitz RI, Feinstein AR. The problem of “protopathic bias” in case-control studies. Am J Med. 1980;68(2):255–258. doi:10.1016/0002-9343(80)90363-0

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    9. Suissa S. Immortal time bias in pharmacoepidemiology. Am J Epidemiol. 2008;167(4):492–499. doi:10.1093/aje/kwm324

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    12. Gaber CE, Ghazarian AA, Strassle PD, et al. De-mystifying the clone-censor-weight method for causal research using observational data: a primer for cancer researchers. Cancer Med. 2024;13(23):e70461. doi:10.1002/cam4.70461

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    14. Rothnie KJ, Müllerová H, Thomas SL, et al. Recording of hospitalizations for acute exacerbations of COPD in UK electronic health care records. Clin Epidemiol. 2016;8:771–782. doi:10.2147/CLEP.S117867

    15. Suissa S, Dell’Aniello S, Ernst P. Comparative effectiveness of LABA-ICS versus LAMA as initial treatment in COPD targeted by blood eosinophils: a population-based cohort study. Lancet Respir Med. 2018;6(11):855–862. doi:10.1016/S2213-2600(18)30368-0

    16. Herrett E, Thomas SL, Schoonen WM, Smeeth L, Hall AJ. Validation and validity of diagnoses in the general practice research database: a systematic review. Br J Clin Pharmacol. 2010;69(1):4–14. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2125.2009.03537.x

    17. Herrett E, Gallagher AM, Bhaskaran K, et al. Data resource profile: clinical practice research datalink (CPRD). Int J Epidemiol. 2015;44(3):827–836. doi:10.1093/ije/dyv098

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    19. Sicras Mainar A, Huerta A, Navarro Artieda R, et al. Economic impact of delaying initiation with multiple-inhaler maintenance triple therapy in Spanish patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Int J Chron Obstruct Pulmon Dis. 2019;14:2121–2129. doi:10.2147/COPD.S211854

    20. Sansbury LB, Wood RP, Anley GA, Nam Y, Ismaila AS. Quantifying the economic impact of delayed multiple-inhaler triple therapy initiation in patients with COPD: a retrospective cohort study of linked electronic medical record and hospital administrative data in England. Int J Chron Obstruct Pulmon Dis. 2021;16:2795–2808. doi:10.2147/COPD.S312853

    21. Tkacz J, Evans KA, Touchette DR, et al. PRIMUS – prompt initiation of maintenance therapy in the US: a real-world analysis of clinical and economic outcomes among patients initiating triple therapy following a COPD exacerbation. Int J Chron Obstruct Pulmon Dis. 2022;17:329–342. doi:10.2147/COPD.S347735

    22. Evans KA, Pollack M, Portillo E, et al. Prompt initiation of triple therapy following hospitalization for a chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbation in the United States: an analysis of the PRIMUS study. J Manage Care Specialty Pharm. 2022;28(12):1366–1377. doi:10.18553/jmcp.2022.28.12.1366

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  • Lions vs NSW Waratahs LIVE: Latest score, updates & line-ups

    Lions vs NSW Waratahs LIVE: Latest score, updates & line-ups

    Some random half-time thoughtspublished at 11:57 British Summer Time

    HT: NSW Waratahs 5-14 Lions

    Nigel Ringland
    BBC Sport at Allianz Stadium

    Finlay Bealham, not originally selected to go on the tour, could be playing his way into the starting number three jersey for the first Test.

    The scrum, in the games he’s started, has looked better than the games he hasn’t.

    Tadhg Furlong will come on in the second half and will need to prove his fitness.

    Everything Hugo Keenan has tried in the first half has gone wrong. There was an early knock-on, a missed tackle for the try, a couple of high balls he didn’t catch (and he is usually reliable).

    Tough opening forty minutes for the Leinster man in his Lions debut, perhaps trying too hard.

    Playing on the left wing, Blair Kinghorn, also making his Lions debut, has been a virtual spectator. I can’t remember a meaningful contribution.

    Not necessarily his fault as there has been a lack of service but again for someone wanting to make an impression, surely not what he was hoping for.

    Huw Jones will continue to push Gary Ringrose for the starting 13 shirt. He has taken his chances.

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  • Salanersen Shows Promise in Phase 1, MESA Open-Label Data Released, Fenfluramine Meets End Points in Phase 3 GEMZ Trial

    Salanersen Shows Promise in Phase 1, MESA Open-Label Data Released, Fenfluramine Meets End Points in Phase 3 GEMZ Trial

    WATCH TIME: 4 minutes

    Welcome to this special edition of Neurology News Network. I’m Marco Meglio.

    Newly announced interim data from a phase 1 study showed that treatment with salanersen (Biogen), an investigational antisense oligonucleotide administered once a year, was safe and led to slowing of neurodegeneration in patients with spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) previously on gene therapy. Based on these findings, Biogen plans to test the therapy in phase 3 studies, the design of which is being discussed with the FDA. Building on the mechanism of action of nusinersen (Spinraza; Biogen), salanersen is designed to enhance potency and allow for once-yearly dosing, offering potential improvements in convenience and efficacy. Mechanistically, salanersen targets the SMN2 gene, modulating its splicing to increase production of functional survival motor neuron (SMN) protein, which is deficient in SMA.

    Edgewise Therapeutics has announced positive topline data from the MESA open-label extension study, with results showing that treatment with investigational sevasemten led to notable improvements in North Star Ambulatory Assessment (NSAA) scores over an 18-month period in patients with Becker muscular dystrophy (BMD). In addition, the company shared encouraging data from its phase 2 LYNX and FOX trials of Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD), as well as completion of a Type C meeting with the FDA, paving a path for sevasemten to become the first approved therapy for BMD. MESA, an open-label extension, featured 99% of eligible participants from the previously completed ARCH, CANYON, GRAND CANYON, or DUNE trials. In the latest data update, results showed a 0.8-point increase in NSAA scores among participants from CANYON, the major phase 2 trial of sevasemten, after 18 months of treatment. More notably, those who switched from placebo to sevasemten demonstrated a 0.2-point improvement since their crossover.

    In a new announcement from UCB, fenfluramine (Fintepla), an FDA-approved antiseizure medication, met its primary and secondary end points in the phase 3 GEMZ trial of patients with CDKL5 deficiency disorder (CDD). Based on these data, the company plans to submit an application for fenfluramine to become a potential treatment option for patients living with CDD. Between baseline and the titration plus maintenance phase, fenfluramine demonstrated statistically significant changes relative to placebo on the primary end point of percent change in countable motor seizure frequency. In this phase 3, double-blind, placebo-controlled, fixed-dose study, fenfluramine continued to show a safety profile that was consistent with its previous indications in Dravet syndrome (DS) and Lennox-Gastaut syndrome (LGS).

    For more direct access to expert insight, head to NeurologyLive.com. This has been Neurology News Network. Thanks for watching.

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