Stay informed with free updates
Simply sign up to the US economy myFT Digest — delivered directly to your inbox.
The continuing US government shutdown has stopped official data releases, which will leave investors without the September inflation data that had been scheduled for publication on Wednesday.
Economists polled by Bloomberg had expected the consumer price index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to show an increase in inflationary pressures. Instead, the BLS said on Friday that it planned to release its data on October 24.
The CPI release, while more than a week late, will still come in time for the Federal Reserve’s rate-setters, which next meet on October 28-29, to factor it into their policy decision. At their last meeting, they signalled a greater focus on the risks from a slowing labour market than from rising inflation. The “dot plot”, the Fed’s survey of its own members’ forecasts, suggests that policymakers expect inflation to be running at 3 per cent by year-end, slightly above the current rate.
The absence of inflation data could keep investors from making big moves in markets. In place of the BLS data, many have resorted to a slew of private data providers alongside survey data from the Fed, such as its “beige book”, for insights into the US economy.
Still, President Donald Trump’s Truth Social post on Friday promising new tariffs on China led to a drop in stocks and a jump in volatility, suggesting that if the risks are high enough, some investors may jump, with or without the economic data to hand. Kate Duguid
How healthy is the UK economy?
Investors will scrutinise UK labour market data on Tuesday and GDP figures on Thursday for insights into underlying inflation pressures and the health of the economy.
Economists polled by Reuters expect annual wage growth (excluding bonuses) for the three months to August to edge down to 4.7 per cent, from 4.8 per cent in the three months to July. They expect the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.7 per cent.
Bank of England policymakers are concerned that wage growth is running too hot for their 2 per cent inflation target, particularly given the UK’s weak productivity record.
While the labour market figures remain uncertain because of poor survey response rates in recent years, analysts will focus on whether recent declines in employment are enough to cool wage growth. A sharp slowdown in wages and a deterioration in hiring could reinforce expectations of interest rate cuts in 2026.
Markets are pricing that the BoE will make one or two quarter-percentage-point cuts next year.
As for the GDP data, economists expect month-on-month growth in August of 0.1 per cent, up from zero growth in July, taking the three-month-on-three-month rate — now the Office for National Statistics’ preferred measure — to 0.3 per cent, up from 0.2 per cent previously.
Ellie Henderson, economist at Investec, also forecasts marginally stronger growth in August but said tax increases expected in the November Budget would have an impact on activity in the autumn.
“Various surveys suggest the prospect of fiscal tightening is already prompting households and firms to delay spending and investment,” she said. “Speculation around the scale of adjustment needed is likely to grow in the run-up to [the Budget on November 26], acting as a further drag on output.” Valentina Romei
Will China’s trade surplus keep defying gravity?
Chinese exports are expected to jump again when Beijing reports trade figures for September on Monday, as the outward flow of goods continues to swell despite the Trump administration’s tariffs.
Economists expect Beijing to report a year-on-year rise of 7.1 per cent in exports during the month, up from 4.4 per cent growth in September. With imports seen rising at a 1.5 per cent pace (up slightly from 1.3 per cent), China’s monthly trade surplus is expected to come in at a hefty $100bn.
The persistently strong figures have defied many economists’ expectations that China’s export machine would slow as Trump’s tariffs took effect — especially since the weakening dollar has sent the renminbi up 2.4 per cent against the greenback this year.
However, a growing chorus of analysts has pointed out that, on a trade-weighted basis, the renminbi is depreciating. It has fallen 8.6 per cent this year against the euro, for example, making exports to Europe more competitive.
China’s trade surplus with the Eurozone is growing rapidly. For the first eight months of the year, exports to the continent grew 5.4 per cent, while imports fell 9.9 per cent. China’s shipments of steel and textiles, for example, have surged, adding to trade tensions.
Jacqueline Rong, chief China economist at BNP Paribas, said China’s resilient exports to non-US markets were down to more than rerouting of trade with the US. The robust growth of its exports to Europe, she said, has been “driven mostly by China’s gain in market share . . . rather than trans-shipments.” William Sandlund
