Liver cancer is the third leading cause of all cancer deaths worldwide, and the number of diagnoses is expected to nearly double by 2050. However, a new study suggests that upwards of 60% of those cases could be preventable, ultimately saving between 8 million and 15 million lives.
A growing, but reversible issue
The Lancet Commission on liver cancer released a study Monday suggesting that with increased vaccination rates and lifestyle changes, the death rate from liver cancer could be dramatically reversed.
Absent any changes in health policy, the number of liver cancer deaths is projected to reach 1.37 million in 2050, compared to 760,000 in 2022.
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“There is an urgent need to raise awareness within society about the severity of the growing health issue of rising liver cancer cases,” Lancet Commission author Valérie Paradis said. “Compared with other cancers, liver cancer is very hard to treat but has more distinct risk factors, which help define specific prevention strategies.”
The global impact of liver cancer
In 2022, there were 870,000 cases of liver cancer, making it the sixth most common cancer worldwide. According to the Lancet Commission, that number is expected to hit 1.52 million cases by 2050. Those cases include cancers that result from hepatitis B and C infections, as well as alcohol- and obesity-related complications.
While the numbers of hepatitis B and C infections are expected to fall from 39% to 37% and 29% to 26% by 2050, respectively, alcohol- and obesity-related cancers are expected to increase from 19% to 21% and 8% to 11%. These numbers account for the total proportion of projected diagnoses between 2022 and 2050.
“Liver cancer is a growing health issue around the world,” said lead researcher Jian Zhou, a professor at Fudan University in China.
Zhou described liver cancer as “one of the most challenging cancers to treat,” adding, “We risk seeing close to a doubling of cases and deaths from liver cancer over the next quarter of a century without urgent action to reverse this trend.”
China accounts for the world’s largest liver cancer population, with roughly 367,657 new cases diagnosed in 2022. That number far outpaces the U.S., which ranks second with 43,492 new cases in 2022, and Japan’s 41,388 new cases, according to the World Cancer Research Fund.
Liver cancer in the U.S. is pretty uncommon, accounting for just 2.1% of new cancer cases to date, in 2025, according to the National Cancer Institute. Nevertheless, liver cancer precursors such as metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) affect around 1 in 4 U.S. adults. Both of those diseases are associated with cirrhosis of the liver, a disorder most people correlate with heavy drinking.
“I think for most people, if you say cirrhosis, they immediately think of a relative, of someone who was a heavy drinker,” said Baylor College of Medicine’s Dr. Hashem El-Serah, a co-author of the report. “I think the vast majority do not make the tie between MASLD, or fatty liver, and cirrhosis and liver cancer.”
What can be done?
Liver cancer may be hard to treat, but researchers and doctors note it’s not difficult to prevent. They point to greater hepatitis vaccination rates, GLP-1s to treat obesity, universal screening for adults, increased alcohol taxes and warning labels, and more robust detection methods –– especially for those with liver disease –– as just a few of the ways policymakers could mitigate liver cancer rates.
“With joint and continuous efforts, we believe many liver cancer cases can be prevented, and both the survival and quality of patients with liver cancer will be considerably improved,” said Paradis.