Cancer charities call for earlier diagnosis as cases projected to surge in England by 2040 | Cancer

Cancer cases are projected to surge in England by 2040, with a person diagnosed every two minutes, up from one every four minutes in the 1970s.

More than 6 million new cases of the disease are predicted to be diagnosed over the next 15 years, with the NHS at risk of being unable to cope unless action is taken to prevent more cases and diagnose the disease earlier, when it is more treatable.

One Cancer Voice, the coalition of 60 cancer charities that published the projections on Tuesday, called on ministers to set early diagnosis targets and introduce strong prevention policies to save lives and transform cancer outcomes.

The projected increase in cases is likely to be due to a range of factors, including a rapidly expanding and ageing population, improvements in detection and diagnosis, and a higher prevalence of known risk factors for the disease.

There have been 5.5 million cases in the last 15 years, the analysis says. There will be a 14.2% increase in the next 15 years, with 6.3 million cancer cases expected by 2040.

Regionally, the south-east could have the biggest rise in diagnoses, with more than 1 million cases between now and 2040, the study suggests.

This is followed by the north-west, with 865,000 cases, the east of England and the south-west with 722,000, and London with 714,000.

The analysis also found that cases of common cancers are expected to reach record highs.

Between now and 2040, there will be 1,050,000 cases of prostate cancer diagnosed, as well as 906,000 cases of breast cancer and 821,000 cases of lung cancer, according to the coalition.

Despite progress in survival – which has doubled since the 1970s – the surge in cases threatens to pile pressure on an already overstretched NHS. Without decisive action, England risks falling behind comparable countries in cancer outcomes, the analysis warns.

The projections come after the Department of Health and Social Care launched a call in February for evidence to help shape a national cancer plan.

Michelle Mitchell, the chief executive of Cancer Research UK and a One Cancer Voice representative, said: “Nearly one in two of us will be diagnosed with cancer in our lifetime – everyone will be impacted by the disease, whether they receive a diagnosis themselves, or have a friend, family member or loved one who does.

“The national cancer plan for England could be a defining moment. If the UK government delivers an ambitious, fully funded strategy, we could save more lives and transform cancer outcomes, propelling England from world-lagging to among world-leading when it comes to tackling this disease.

“We’ve seen progress before – now is the time to act again and make a difference for cancer patients.”

The coalition is calling on ministers to meet six “tests” to make England a world-leader in cancer care.

They are:

• A pledge to meet all cancer waiting times by the end of parliament in 2029.

• A new earlier diagnosis target, with improved screening programmes.

• The introduction of strong cancer prevention policies.

• Addressing inequalities in patient care.

• Improving access to clinical trials for cancer patients.

• Better support for people to live well with and beyond cancer.

A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said: “This government is prioritising cancer care as we turn around more than a decade of neglect of our NHS.

“We’re already making an impact, with 95,000 more people having cancer diagnosed or ruled out within 28 days between July 2024 and May 2025, compared to the same period the previous year. This will soon be supported by our new national cancer plan, setting out how cancer care will improve over the coming years.

“We’re also making it easier for people to get tests, checks and scans with DIY screening kits for cervical cancer, new radiotherapy machines in every region, and by creating the first smoke-free generation.”