LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – JUNE 19: A help wanted sign hangs in the window of a store in the Fashion District on June 19, 2025 in Los Angeles, California.
Scott Olson | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Markets have been rising on hopes that weak jobs data will lead to rate cuts. But they could be staring at an oncoming freight train if the U.S. nonfarm payrolls data due Friday sends recessionary signals.
The ADP private payrolls report on Thursday showed an increase of 54,000 jobs in August, lower than the 75,000 expected by economists polled by Dow Jones. The figure is also less than the revised 106,000 jobs added in July.
Jobless claims for the week ended Aug. 30 also increased to 237,000. That number came in above estimates and marked an 8,000 gain from the prior week, providing more evidence of labor market slowdown.
Currently, the market has shrugged off that data. All three major U.S. indexes ended in positive territory Thursday, with the S&P500 notching a record high.
But that's the thing about freight trains. You hear them them faintly in the distance, and all of a sudden, you're scrambling to jump out of the way as it barrels down on you.
Friday's nonfarm payrolls report is expected to show 75,000 additions last month, according to a Dow Jones poll.
Investors will then know if the train is simply pulling into a station, or their portfolios are about to get run over — and optimism in itself isn't always a great armor.
— CNBC's Sean Conlon and Sarah Min contributed to this report.
What you need to know today
S&P notches new record high. The S&P 500 closed at its 21st record high of the year after an afternoon boost pushed stocks solidly into the green as traders shook off weak private employment data earlier in the day. The Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average also recorded gains. Asia-Pacific markets traded higher Friday, led by Taiwan's Taiex with a gain of over 1%.
Trump formalizes Japan trade deal. U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order Thursday stateside which implements a 15% baseline tariffs on most Japanese goods, including autos. The deal had been reached in July after months of negotiations.
Chip tariffs incoming. Trump reiterated a warning that he will soon impose "fairly substantial" tariffs on semiconductor imports from companies that do not shift production to the U.S., but will spare firms like Apple that expand investments domestically.
Trump vs FTC. U.S. President Donald Trump asked the Supreme Court to allow him to fire Federal Trade Commission commissioner Rebecca Slaughter, who lower courts ordered reinstated after he terminated her. Trump in March removed Slaughter and another Democratic commissioner, Alvaro Bedoya, as part of a sprawling effort to exert his influence over federal agencies.
[PRO] Global banks and gold miners preferred. There's been a rush into international equities in 2025, and demand appears to be increasing. Portfolio managers at Lazard Asset Management tell CNBC where they are seeing opportunities.
And finally...
Artificial intelligence technology concept with text AI on electronic circuit board.
Teera Konakan | Moment | Getty Images
AI skills are in high demand — and employers are willing to pay a premium for them
Rather than replacing roles with AI, many companies are hiring workers who can leverage artificial intelligence, a new study published in July found.
In an analysis of over a billion job postings, labor insight platform Lightcast identified not only a surge in demand for AI skills, but also higher average pay for jobs that required them.
"Job postings are increasingly emphasizing AI skills and there are signals that employers are willing to pay premium salaries for them," Elena Magrini, head of global research at Lightcast, told CNBC.
— Dylan Butts, Shreya Ghosal
