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Precious metal prices have risen after the US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro increased investors’ concerns about geopolitical risks.

Gold was about 2.2% higher at $4,424 (£3,292) an ounce, while the price of silver was up by 3.9%, as money was moved into so-called “safe-haven” assets.

Meanwhile, crude oil prices fell back and share indexes in Europe and Asia were mostly higher.

Both gold and silver hit record highs in 2025 before losing ground in the last few days of the year.

Despite dipping at the end of last year, gold still saw its best annual performance since 1979 after rising by more than 60%, reaching an all-time high of $4,549.71 on 26 December.

Those gains were driven by several factors including expectations of more interest rate cuts, major purchases of bullion by central banks and investor concerns about global tensions and economic uncertainty.

Oil fluctuated in early trade before slipping back as investors weighed whether Washington’s intervention in Venezuela would affect crude supplies. Brent crude was down 50 cents, or 0.8%, to $60.26 a barrel.

US President Donald Trump has vowed to tap into Venezuela’s vast oil reserves after seizing Maduro and said that the US will “run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition”.

But industry analysts have said the move is unlikely to have an immediate impact on how much people and businesses pay for energy.

Experts have also said it would cost billions of dollars to fix Venezuela’s oil infrastructure, which has been in sharp decline since the early 2000s.

Venezuela’s crude production has been “lacklustre” for years and now only accounts for around 1% of global oil output, said investment strategist Vasu Menon from OCBC bank.

The former chief executive of BP, Lord Browne, told the BBC’s Today programme that for Venezuela to revive its oil production would take “a tremendous amount of skill investment and time”.

While there might be a “quick pick up” of some production, he added, output might actually fall while the industry is reorganising.

Stock markets in Europe opened higher, with the UK’s FTSE 100 index up 0.3% and close to the 10,000 mark that it hit for the first time on Friday.

Following the events of the weekend firms involved in the defence industry saw some of the biggest gains, with BAE Systems up 4.5% and Babcock International 3.6% higher.

Mining firms also rose following the gain in precious metals prices, with Fresnillo up 3.6%.

Share markets in Asia made gains as investors focused on news unrelated to developments in Venezuela.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up by 2.6% on the first day of trading of the year and new data showed that manufacturing activity stabilised in December.

Major indexes in South Korea and China were also higher.

The jumps reflect confidence that the fallout from events in Venezuela will remain distant, said Zavier Wong from investment firm eToro.

In the echoing exhibition halls of Abu Dhabi’s International Hunting and Equestrian Exhibition, hundreds of falcons sit on perches under bright lights. Decorated hoods fit snugly over their heads, blocking their vision to keep them calm.

In a small glass room marked Elite Falcons Hall, four young birds belonging to an undisclosed Emirati sheikh are displayed like expensive jewels. Entry to the room, with its polished glass, controlled lighting and plush seating, is restricted to authorised visitors only.

These falcons are granted Emirati passports, jet around the world and have entire hospitals that specialise in their healthcare. Some cost more than luxury cars – an American falcon at the exhibition will sell for AED 350,000 (£71,000). The most prestigious birds travel in Range Rovers and Bentleys fitted out with a perch between the front seats.

For thousands of years, people have hunted using falcons over the vast Arabian desert. In the UAE, however, this Bedouin tradition has evolved into a spectacle of wealth and prestige to meet the tastes of the modern Gulf elite. As falconry has become a multimillion-dollar international industry that stretches around the world, an investigation by the Guardian and Arab Reporters for Investigative Journalism (ARIJ) shows that it is fed by a shadow industry of the smuggling and illegal capture of wild birds.

Vanishing chicks

Far from the hot plains and glass skyscrapers of Abu Dhabi, in rural counties across the UK conservationists and police are reporting a troubling pattern. Peregrine falcon chicks are vanishing from remote cliff ledges and treetop nests unreachable without specialist climbing gear. Later, some of these chicks are ending up in deserts in the Middle East, having been issued with fabricated documents, according to police witness statements from people who bought them thinking they were legitimate.

The cold climate of northern Europe is considered the ideal for creating tough, fast birds, and British-bred birds from established lines carry additional prestige. Legally only captive-bred peregrine falcons can be traded. Birds cannot be taken from the wild, as they are strictly protected under the Wildlife and Countryside Act.

Exclusive data shared with the Guardian and ARIJ by Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB) investigations shows that from 2014 to 2023 there were 126 reports of nests being raided, 21 of which have been confirmed using camera footage, DNA work or eyewitness accounts. All are believed to be linked to the peregrine falcon trade.

“There are hundreds of birds going missing each year,” says Kevin Kelly, head of the National Wildlife Crime Unit (NWCU).

Demand for wild birds appears to be coming from two directions, experts and police say. The first is direct from falconers in the Middle East who want wild birds for racing. The second is from some breeding facilities that need them as parents to feed a booming appetite for hybrid falcons and legally exportable, captive-bred birds.

At the Abu Dhabi exhibition, traders will happily discuss their desire for wild-caught birds – although they are not formally advertised, as the practice is illegal.

“British falcons are in very high demand in the UAE because of their record in winning races, their purity of bloodline and their speed,” says one employee of a high-profile Emirati falconry body. He says most Emirati falconers prefer wild-caught falcons since “farm-bred falcons might come from mixed bloodlines, while wild-caught birds are pure and perform better”. This preference for wild-caught British falcons was echoed by four other farm owners and sellers, as well as two falconers interviewed at the exhibition.

The demand for British birds has driven soaring exports. Last year, 4,000 peregrine or peregrine hybrids were exported from the UK to the Middle East, and this year the number rose to 5,000, according to the police. In 2023 (the last year data is available), 88% of all peregrine falcons exported out of the UK were sent to the UAE, according to data extracted from the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (Cites) database. It is not known how many of those exported birds are wild caught, but police have identified at least some that are.

Wild birds held captive

To feed the booming export demand, there has also been a huge growth in UK breeders. There are now about 160 breeding facilities in the UK, up from about 27 in the 1980s, according to NWCU. All of the facilities have links to the Middle East (either owned by a resident from the region or selling directly to a buyer there).

The most valuable falcon for export is the gyr peregrine – known for its speed and strength – which has a peregrine falcon as the mother and gyr falcon as the father. The female offspring are infertile, which is why there is high demand for female peregrine falcons in breeding facilities. In 2024, 1,200 peregrine falcons were registered in captive breeding facilities, up from 750 in 2000, freedom of information (FoI) data shows.

DNA techniques – which rely on volunteers sending in hundreds of samples from wild birds – prove that some of these birds are wild caught. “The DNA work shows there are a number of wild birds within captive breeding centres up and down the country,” says PC Gavin Ross, who has led the crackdown on falcon thieves.

Police don’t have the capacity to inspect all of the country’s facilities, but say more than half of the facilities they do investigate are non-compliant, with offences ranging from non-registration of birds and false declarations of parentage to selling birds that have been taken from the wild. There were 27 physical inspections of facilities breeding peregrine falcons in 2023 and 2024, according to FoI data – a significant increase from previous years. During those checks, 15 wild birds were discovered and confirmed using DNA testing.

A ‘minor’ issue

These findings have been disputed by some experts in the industry, who argue that the trafficking is minor or nonexistent. “In reality, the level of illegal take described by the NWCU is a handful of birds per year,” says Dr Nick Fox, director of International Wildlife Consultants (UK) Ltd, who has supplied the royal families of UAE and Bahrain with falcons.

“Breeding falcons in the UK has increased hugely over the past 25 years as expertise has developed,” says Fox, who has an OBE for falcon conservation. “Basically we have succeeded in killing the market for wild birds.”

The suggestion that Emirati falconers are actively seeking wild-caught British birds is false, says Julian Mühle, CEO of the International Association for Falconry and Conservation of Birds of Prey (IAF). “Comments gathered informally at an exhibition do not reflect the established preferences in the region,” he says.

Mühle says the discovery of wild falcons in breeding facilities “should not be interpreted as evidence of widespread criminality”. Instances of chicks being taken from wild nests “while serious, are extremely rare and, crucially, not linked to the legitimate falconry community”.

Khaled Bin Soufan, a prominent falcon trader in the UAE, says there is “zero” smuggling of wild birds from the UK: “It is not allowed.”

The Abu Dhabi’s International Hunting and Equestrian Exhibition did not respond to a request for comment.

Threatened by greed

Wild peregrine falcons spend their lives soaring above cliffs and cathedrals up and down the UK, slicing through the cool air at breakneck speed. A few will swap that for a life of flying over golden deserts and sprawling glass cities. Yet many kept in captivity rarely – if ever – fly, according to Ross. Some who spend their lives in breeding facilities are “treated like battery chickens”, he says, fed supplements to produce up to 14 eggs a season.

Peregrine falcons were on the verge of extinction in the UK in the 1950s until the banning of insecticide DDT and stronger legal protection. Their return has been a conservation success story, with 1,750 breeding pairs in the wild. Now they are threatened by greed, says Ross. “If a blind eye was turned to [the illegal taking of birds], the peregrine would again be under threat of extinction.”

The population is now classed as stable, but some areas are more targeted than others. “Locally we’re seeing a decline in peregrine falcons,” says George Smith, who monitors 60 nests over an area of south-east Scotland. “When they disappear, the food chain gets wrecked.”

Smith has been monitoring the birds for nearly 40 years. This year he believes that four nests containing at least 10 chicks in his area were raided for falconry, and that nationally about 100 are taken. He tries not to get too attached to the birds he monitors. “It’s pretty bad just now,” he says. “Nest raiding was bad in the early 70s, and now it has returned.”

Find more age of extinction coverage here, and follow the biodiversity reporters Phoebe Weston and Patrick Greenfield in the Guardian app for more nature coverage

Distinguished guests, partners, and friends,

Introduction

1.               I am really happy to open the T5 in the Making exhibition today.

The Changi Story

2.               Prime Minister Wong was here just six months ago to break ground for Terminal 5, or T5.

a.               In his speech, he said that the Changi story is a reflection of the Singapore story – where we continue to defy the odds, exceed expectations, and to keep striving to reach new heights.

3.               The T5 in the Making exhibition brings this story to life.

a.               It takes us back to the decision that our founding leaders took to move the airport from Paya Lebar to Changi.

b.               It is an obvious decision now; but in the 1970s, no one could have foreseen how international air traffic would grow so rapidly.

c.                Paya Lebar’s capacity was then only 8 million passengers per year. Today, Changi already handles about 70 million. And T5 will increase Changi’s existing capacity by about 50 million passengers per year. And no expansion of Paya Lebar could have met these needs.

d.               That was of course a lot of work to make this happen. It would have been easier to expand the airport at Paya Lebar because The infrastructure was already there, and it would have been more cost effective. To create Changi Airport, we had to reclaim land along East Coast and Tanah Merah and reshape our geography. Doing so gave us the potential to expand further in the future, as we are doing now.

4.               Over the decades, Changi has fulfilled its potential, and more.

a.               It has expanded in step with the growth of global aviation

b.               New terminals were added, existing ones regularly refurbished, to maintain Changi’s world leading standards

c.                We built Jewel, which set a new bar in passenger experience.

d.               I have no doubt that the world is watching to see what T5 represents for the future of aviation.

Keeping Singapore Aviation on the Map

5.               We first announced the decision to build T5 in 2013.

a.               Not too long ago, but I was at MOT then as a public officer, not directly working on aviation, but on land transport. But I remember discussing with the airport officers the future taxi operations and being bewildered by how many more taxis we would need, with the sheer scale of T5.

b.               The decision to build T5 was one of confidence and conviction. Confidence in our future, and conviction in our ability to secure our place in a competitive world.

c.                That confidence was shaken when global aviation demand collapsed during the COVID-19 pandemic. For a moment, we were not sure what the future of aviation would hold. And we reconsidered deeply whether to proceed with T5. In the end, we decided to go ahead.

6.               The strong post-COVID recovery for global aviation shows that we made absolutely the right decision.

a.               Last year, IATA announced that the airline industry had fully recovered from its worst crisis in history. Changi’s passenger volumes have also surpassed pre-COVID levels.

b.               And the future looks bright. By 2050, global air traffic is expected to double, with Asia-Pacific leading this growth.

T5 and the Changi East Development

7.               With T5 in the Making, we will be part of this growth story.

a.               When T5 opens in the mid-2030s, we aim to increase our number of city connections from around 170 cities to over 200 cities.

b.               With T5 and the Changi East Industrial Zone, we also have the opportunity to grow our air cargo capacity, and solidify Singapore’s role as a logistics hub.

c.                And the Changi East Urban District will create a new lifestyle and business hub for both Singaporeans and visitors to connect, work, and play.

d.               You will see some of these exciting plans at the exhibition.

T5: A Terminal for the Future

8.               T5 represents the future of aviation for us. As we build T5 over the next ten years, we have to make sure that it will meet the needs of the airlines and passengers tomorrow, not just today.

9.               First, we have designed T5 to be technology-intensive – empowered by automation and AI

a.               For example, autonomous vehicles and robotics are already being trialled for labour-intensive processes, such as baggage and cargo handling

b.               To optimise airport operations, AI can be used to improve flight planning and passenger services, and respond quickly to disruptions like changing weather conditions.

10.            Second, T5 is designed to show the way for aviation sustainability.

a.               T5 will support our efforts to catalyse the use of Sustainable Aviation Fuels and new energy sources to decarbonise air travel.

b.               T5 will  also be fully electrified, and will be powered by one of Singapore’s largest rooftop solar panels.

11.            Third, T5 is designed to put the customer first.

a.               It has incorporated ideas from passengers, airlines, and airport tenants, from the layout of lounges to the design of retail spaces.  

b.               For example, passengers will have a seamless journeys from immigration to security to boarding, with personalised recommendations for dining, retail, and transit along the way

c.                And although T5 is a  bigger airport, its design reduces walking time, and consequently, transit passengers can make their connections more quickly.

Jobs and Opportunities for Singaporeans

12.            With T5, the number of jobs in the aviation sector will only continue to grow. Many of them will be new jobs, such as in data science, systems operations, and sustainability. These are areas where future Singaporeans will want to work in.

a.               Annually, there are more than 2,000 students graduating from aviation and aerospace-related courses in our Institutes of Higher Learning.

b.               It is imperative that the  sectors continue to attract its share of talent and work closely with the IHLs to make sure that the skills of our workforce remain relevant and future-ready.

Building a Next Generation Air Hub Together

13.            The construction of T5 is advancing steadily.

a.               I visited the Changi East Project Office just last week. I met the team working on the project, several of whom have been involved in the project since the very beginning  in 2013.

b.               I told them that they deserved great credit for bringing the project to where it is today.

14.            Changi Airport Group has awarded contracts, including to local contractors, for the T5 substructure, tunnel works, and early remote stands. A few days ago, you might have read  media reports on the progress of the T2 to T5 inter-terminal connection tunnel. In the next few weeks, Changi Airport Group will also be launching the superstructure tender.  

15.            Changi Airport is regarded by many as one of the best, if not the best, airports in the world. This success is thanks to the hard work and collaboration of all our OneAviation family. 

16.            Delivering T5 will require a whole-of-ecosystem effort. I am glad that Changi Airport Group and CAAS have been working closely alongside airlines, ground handlers, contractors, tenants, technology partners, and crucially, our unions and workers to make Changi what it is today – a beacon of Singapore’s excellence.

17.            Through the exhibition T5 in the Making, I invite all Singaporeans to join the One Aviation Family, as we build T5 and the future of aviation together.

Thank you.