DHARAMSHALA, India (AP) — The Dalai Lama has announced that he intends to reincarnate, paving the way for a successor to take on a mantle stretching back 500 years after his death.
But as he approaches his 90th birthday, that news hasn’t eased the worries of Tibetan Buddhists who wonder: What will happen when this Dalai Lama is gone?
For decades, the 14th Dalai Lama has been more than a spiritual leader. He has sustained a nation in exile and managed to build a community that’s kept the Tibetan culture and identity alive. He is the China -reviled spokesperson for a Tibetan homeland that many, like him, can see only from afar. He has received a Nobel Peace Prize and been courted by royalty, politicians and Hollywood stars, helping him draw global attention and support for Tibet.
An exiled Tibetan prostrates in prayer at the Tsuglakhang temple in Dharamshala, India, Tuesday, July 1, 2025. (AP Photo/Ashwini Bhatia)
When his death comes, it will pitch the global Tibetan community into uncertainty, perhaps for years. His successor will have to be found through the traditional process of reincarnation. China, whose troops took control of Tibet in 1950, says it will reject anyone chosen without Beijing’s consent.
Tibetans in India’s Himalayan town of Dharamshala, the Dalai Lama’s home in exile, and scattered around the world fear a new onslaught on their cultural and religious identity.
“The absence of His Holiness would be a huge setback for the Tibetans,” said Penpa Tsering, the head of the democratically elected Tibetan government-in-exile. “The responsibility lies on us as to how we carry forward the legacy of His Holiness.”
A long gap
The Dalai Lama has become one of the world’s most recognizable figures while leading a Tibetan diaspora through their struggle for autonomy and opposition of China’s control of Tibet. He has not named a successor, but he says they will be born in the “free world” — outside China.
Previous Dalai Lamas have been identified by senior monastic disciples, under strict religious rituals meant to identify their predecessor’s reincarnation. Monks interpret signs, consult oracles and send search committees to Tibetan households looking for a child who exhibits the qualities of the Dalai Lama.
All of this takes years of effort, leaving a leadership vacuum. Years of religious education and training are needed before the identified successor grows up and takes up full responsibilities as spiritual leader.
China has already sought to elevate other spiritual figures, particularly Tibetan Buddhism’s No. 2 figure, the Panchen Lama, whose legitimacy is highly contested by many Tibetans at home and in exile.
Gyaltsen Norbu was installed by Beijing as the 11th Panchen Lama in 1995 after followers of the Dalai Lama recognized a different boy as the Panchen’s incarnation. That boy disappeared soon after.
Joy and stubbornness
And there’s no guarantee the successor will have the current Dalai Lama’s charisma, or his ability to balance a sense of joy with the stubbornness needed to counter China.
“He is a fulcrum, he’s the epitome of the Tibetan movement,” said writer and activist Tenzin Tsundue, who was born in India.
Tsundue for years has advocated for Tibet’s autonomy. To him, the current Dalai Lama’s absence will be hugely felt.
Like many other Tibetans, however, his hopes are pinned on the government in exile. “How is home not anything but a genuine human demand?” he added.
Such concerns are most prevalent in Dharamshala, where a Tibetan community of over 20,000 administers its own schools, hospitals and monasteries and elects its own lawmakers and president. The Dalai Lama handed over his political powers to a democratically elected government in 2011.
Devotees wait to welcome Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama at an event celebrating his 90th birthday according to a Tibetan calendar in Dharamshala, India, Monday, June 30, 2025, ahead of his birthday according to the Gregorian calendar on July 6. (AP Photo/Ashwini Bhatia)
Beijing is likely to appoint its own candidate
China doesn’t recognize the Tibetan government-in-exile and brands the Dalai Lama a dangerous separatist. It has shunned direct contact with his representatives for more than a decade.
It has insisted that the Dalai Lama’s successor will be from inside China and must be approved by its government.
Tibetans in exile have long been wary of the officially atheist Chinese government’s attempts to meddle with the Tibetan Buddhism reincarnation system. They see it as part of Beijing’s plan to tighten its control over Tibet.
“If they do it, they are actually making a mockery of themselves among the free countries,” said Geshe Lhakdor, a Tibetan Buddhist scholar, calling Beijing’s stance “hypocrisy.”
Tibetans say they were effectively independent for centuries and accuse China of trying to wipe out Tibet’s Buddhist culture and language. Many of the more than 7 million Tibetans living under Chinese rule accuse Beijing of stifling religious freedoms, changing its ethnic makeup by moving millions of Han Chinese into the region and torturing political prisoners.
The Chinese government denies these allegations.
Waning global attention
For years, governments across the world have feted the Dalai Lama for advocating for Tibetan rights and spreading a message of nonviolence. They have also helped him raise tens of millions of dollars to build Tibetan cultural and religious institutions.
But Tsundue said that global powers have become more unreliable in their support of the Tibetan cause as China’s influence grows.
“Everybody has benefited at our cost because they have been trading with China,” Tsundue said. “We are, in a way, a victim of geopolitics.”
Some countries, including the United States, view Beijing’s attempts to control the reincarnation of the Dalai Lama as a violation of religious freedom and Tibetan cultural tradition. Others, like the European Union and India, have maintained a cautious stance to avoid friction with China.
Penpa Tsering, President of the Tibetan government-in-exile, gestures as he speaks to the Associated Press at his office in Dharamshala, India, Tuesday, July 1, 2025. (AP Photo/Ashwini Bhatia)
Tsering, the president of the government-in-exile, acknowledged this, calling Tibetans’ efforts to keep the issue of Tibet alive “a miracle.”
He also cautioned that the future depends on the Tibetan people at large.
Under the Dalai Lama’s “Middle Way” policy, the movement for Tibet’s autonomy has largely been nonviolent. It espouses autonomy under Chinese sovereignty.
The newly announced succession plan, however, can prompt a reckoning of that policy, and it is unclear how the Dalai Lama’s successor might approach dialogue with Beijing.
Tsering cautioned that much could change in the coming years. His biggest worry is that the Dalai Lama’s death in exile could trigger a violent response inside Tibet, where in recent years hundreds of monks and others reportedly set themselves on fire in protest against Chinese rule.
“I hope the Tibetans won’t get radicalized,” he said.
