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US prices rose 2.7% in the year to November, according to federal data released a day after Donald Trump claimed they were falling “very fast” on his watch.

The latest consumer price index, released on Wednesday morning, was down from 3% in September, and short of economists’ expectations of about 3.1% for last month.

It comes amid questions over the strength of the US economy. The longest US federal government shutdown in history halted collection of key data. There was no inflation report for October, and data was only collected for the second half of November.

Latest inflation chart

In a live TV address on Tuesday night, Trump claimed prices were falling “rapidly”, despite evidence to the contrary. “I am bringing those high prices down, and bringing them down very fast,” the US president said.

Price growth, which surged in the US to its highest level in a generation three years ago amid economic disruption wrought by Covid, fell back sharply. It has stubbornly remained above standard levels, however, and after retreating to 2.3% in April, it has since climbed higher – amid persisting concerns around affordability.

The latest rise in prices coincides with a climbing unemployment rate, which hit 4.6% in November – a four-year high. Despite this growth, the number of jobs added to the economy last month was higher than economists anticipated, rising 64,000 after 105,000 jobs were lost in October.

The White House has insisted that any inflation are remnants from the Biden administration. “I have no higher priority than making America affordable again,” Trump told his supporters at a rally in Pennsylvania last week, echoing promises he made during his presidential campaign. “They caused the high prices and we’re bringing them down.”

When inflation hit a 40-year high in June 2022, at 9.1%, many economists put it down to a combination of pandemic stimulus and recovery rippling through the economy. By summer 2024, inflation had fallen back to 3%, though Americans were still feeling the pain of high prices.

Economists widely agree that Trump’s tariffs have made prices rise. Even though the US president eventually exempted certain imports like coffee, bananas and beef from tariffs, the overall effective tariff rate is still the highest it’s been since 1938. The Yale Budget Lab estimated that, even with exemptions, Trump’s tariffs will cause prices to rise $1,700 for the average American household.

Recent polls show that Americans, still price sensitive from increases seen in 2022, are now shifting the blame onto Trump. Among other national issues listed in the YouGov/Economists poll, Trump’s net approval on prices have fallen the most compared to other issues like immigration and national security. Meanwhile, another poll from the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers shows that consumer expectation of inflation has soared this year since January.

The rise in both prices and unemployment has created a tricky situation for the Federal Reserve, which is tasked with trying to keep both low. The central bank reduced interest rates three times this year, but defied Trump’s demands for deeper cuts.

“We are committed to 2% inflation, and we will deliver 2% inflation, but it is a complicated and difficult situation where the labor market is also under pressure,” the Fed chair, Jerome Powell, said last week.

Fed officials have signaled that it may pause any further rate cuts as inflation and unemployment appear to be reaching a balance. Interest rates are currently sitting at a range of 3.5% to 3.75%.

Powell also noted that Fed officials will be careful about assessing economic data from November, given the impact of the shutdown. “We are going to get data, but we are going to have to look at it carefully and [with] a somewhat skeptical eye by the January meeting,” he said.

Dear Colleagues,

Today sees this government’s landmark Planning and Infrastructure Act 2025 receive Royal Assent, which marks the conclusion of its passage through Parliament. This legislation will speed up and streamline the planning process for housing and critical infrastructure, including major clean energy and transport projects, accelerating delivery while securing better outcomes for nature. Together with the government’s wider planning agenda, the Act will ensure this country has a planning system which supports the delivery of our ambitious targets to build 1.5 million homes in England, fast-tracks 150 planning decisions on major infrastructure projects, and supports the delivery of our Clean Power 2030 target.

I want to highlight in particular, however, the role this Act will play in safeguarding the UK’s long-term energy security in a clean and cost-effective manner by enshrining in law a new mechanism to support the delivery of the next generation of long duration electricity storage (LDES). As set out in the ‘Clean Power 2030 Action Plan’, LDES is critical to achieving this government’s Clean Power 2030 ambition, which will in turn help us to develop homegrown energy with the enhanced energy security and affordability that it brings. It has been over 40 years since the last new LDES asset was commissioned on the GB grid and this measure addresses the specific LDES market failure.

LDES can encompass pumped storage hydro (PSH), compressed and liquid air energy storage (CAES and LAES), and certain types of battery that can supply electricity continuously for eight hours or more without recharging. This 8-hour plus duration, which is significantly higher than existing electricity storage assets, meets a specific electricity system security need. It enables the electricity system to store clean wind and solar power when it is plentiful and use it when most needed. It’s a crucial part of making Britain a clean energy superpower.

In the government response to the LDES consultation in October last year which followed extensive industry consultation, government confirmed that to enable investment in LDES, a cap and floor scheme should be introduced, similar to that used successfully by Ofgem to significantly increase GB electricity interconnection capacity. It also confirmed that Ofgem would act as the delivery body and regulator responsible for delivering and administering the LDES cap and floor scheme.

The cap and floor scheme is technology neutral. It provides revenue support to developers should their returns fall below a set threshold known as the ‘floor’, to provide additional confidence to investors that debt costs will be recovered. In return, if profitability is above a defined ‘cap’, developers will have to return most or all the returns above the cap to energy consumers. This gives the market confidence to deliver the LDES we need without undue risk to consumers. Under the interconnector cap and floor regime, a floor has never been engaged, though a cap has and energy consumers have been able to share in high revenues.

Ofgem began work to develop the LDES cap and floor scheme as soon as it was announced in the government consultation response in October 2024. Ofgem opened the first application window for the scheme in April 2025 and plans to make final decisions on successful projects in Summer 2026. In parallel to Ofgem’s delivery work commencing, the government introduced legislation to Parliament, via the Planning and Infrastructure Act, directing Ofgem to implement this scheme. Government had the firm expectation that this legislation would be enacted in advance of Ofgem’s decisions on the identity of LDES projects to award a cap and floor scheme to within a scale of capacity Ofgem has been advised by NESO is required to meet electricity system needs.

I am grateful that Ofgem has already made great progress in taking steps to implement the cap and floor scheme. In March, we jointly published a Technical Decision Document. In April, Ofgem opened the scheme for applications, assessing 171 bids for eligibility over the summer. In September, Ofgem shortlisted 77 eligible projects alongside its publication of the Financial and Multi-Criteria Assessment Frameworks. Given the importance of LDES to achieving this government’s ambition of becoming a Clean Energy Superpower, I am delighted that delivery of this scheme by Ofgem remains on track, and that Ofgem’s design of the scheme ensures the interests of consumers are protected.

Ofgem will have some difficult decisions to make over the coming months on the scale and identity of LDES projects to support with a cap and floor agreement. I know Ofgem will have the interests of energy consumers at heart as it ensures GB develops the LDES needed to deliver reliable and cost-effective clean energy that reduces our dependency on volatile international fossil fuel markets. There are a small minority who oppose this scheme, or who would prefer that its design shifted focus to some goal other than supporting investment in the very best LDES assets under the best terms for consumers. Let me be clear: this government gives full support to Ofgem for its overall approach to delivering the LDES cap and floor scheme. I look forward to an exciting 2026 for LDES, in which Ofgem successfully concludes the first application window of the scheme with the support of government, Parliament, NESO and industry.

Michael Shanks MP,
Minister of State (Minister for Energy)

Released: 2025-12-18

The number of employees receiving pay and benefits from their employer—measured as “payroll employment” in the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours—increased by 21,200 (+0.1%) in October, largely offsetting a decline of 24,300 (-0.1%) in September. On a year-over-year basis, payroll employment was up 68,300 (+0.4%) in October.

In October, monthly payroll employment increases were recorded in 9 of the 20 sectors, led by health care and social assistance (+10,300; +0.4%), followed by finance and insurance (+5,500; +0.6%), public administration (+5,100; +0.4%), and transportation and warehousing (+4,700; +0.5%). The gains were partially offset by declines in administration and support, waste management and remediation services (-5,200; -0.6%), retail trade (-2,000; -0.1%), wholesale trade (-1,600; -0.2%), and professional, scientific and technical services (-1,500; -0.1%).

Meanwhile, job vacancies in Canada decreased by 19,100 (-3.9%) to 467,000 in October, more than offsetting the uptick in September (+11,000; +2.3%). The number of vacancies in October was the lowest since October 2017. On a year-over-year basis, job vacancies were down 65,200 (-12.3%) in October 2025.

Health care and social assistance records payroll employment increase in October

Payroll employment in health care and social assistance rose by 10,300 (+0.4%) in October, following an increase of 9,100 (+0.4%) in September. Payroll employment in this sector has generally trended upward since 2022. On a year-over-year basis, payroll employment in health care and social assistance was up by 71,700 (+3.0%) in October 2025.

In October, monthly payroll employment increases were recorded in 13 out of 18 industries in the sector, led by child day-care services (+2,900; +1.4%), nursing care facilities (+2,100; +0.9%) and general medical and surgical hospitals (+1,900; +0.3%).

Payroll employment in finance and insurance increases for the fourth consecutive month

Payroll employment in finance and insurance (+5,500; +0.6%) rose for the fourth consecutive month in October, bringing the cumulative gain to 16,700 (+2.0%) since July. The increase since July was concentrated in credit intermediation and related activities (+8,700; +2.1%) and in insurance carriers and related activities (+5,500; +2.0%).

On a year-over-year basis, payroll employment in finance and insurance was up by 15,600 (+1.8%) in October.

Payroll employment in public administration increases in October

Payroll employment in public administration (+5,100; +0.4%) increased for the third consecutive month in October, bringing the cumulative gain to 9,000 (+0.7%) since August. The three-month gain in the sector partially offset the cumulative decline of 10,300 (-0.8%) recorded from April to July 2025.

Year over year, payroll employment in public administration was up 7,100 (+0.5%) in October. Net gains in provincial and territorial public administration (+11,800; +3.4%) and local, municipal and regional public administration (+10,000; +2.0%) were partially offset by a decline in federal government public administration (-16,500; -4.3%).

Transportation and warehousing records payroll employment increase in October

Payroll employment in transportation and warehousing increased by 4,700 (+0.5%) in October, following little variation from July to September.

On a year-over-year basis, payroll employment in the sector was up by 15,100 (+1.8%) in October. Year-over-year increases were recorded in 8 out of 11 subsectors, led by warehousing and storage (+5,300; +7.1%), couriers and messengers (+4,600; +5.9%), transit and ground passenger transportation (+4,200; +3.4%) and rail transportation (+3,200; +7.5%). Meanwhile, truck transportation (-4,500; -2.1%) was the lone subsector to record a year-over-year decline in October.

Payroll employment in administrative and support, waste management and remediation services decreases for the second consecutive month

Payroll employment in administrative and support, waste management and remediation services (-5,200; -0.6%) fell for a second consecutive month in October, following a decline of 5,900 (-0.7%) in September. The cumulative decline over September and October was led by employment services (-5,700; -3.0%) and business support services (-1,900; -2.9%).

On a year-over-year basis, payroll employment in the sector was down 3,400 (-0.4%) in October.

Average weekly earnings continue to increase on a year-over-year basis

Year over year, average weekly earnings were up 2.2% to $1,312 in October, following a 2.9% increase in September. In general, growth in average weekly earnings can reflect a range of factors, including changes in wages, composition of employment, hours worked and base-year effects.

Month over month, average weekly earnings were little changed in October.

In October, average weekly hours worked were down 0.3% to 33.3 hours, compared with 33.4 hours in September. On a year-over-year basis, average weekly hours were down 0.3% in October.

Job vacancies decrease in October

In October, job vacancies in Canada decreased by 19,100 (-3.9%) to 467,000, more than offsetting the uptick in September (+11,000; +2.3%). The number of vacancies in October was the lowest since October 2017. On a year-over-year basis, job vacancies were down 65,200 (-12.3%) in October 2025.

The job vacancy rate—which corresponds to the number of vacant positions as a proportion of total labour demand—was 2.6% in October, down 0.1 percentage points from September (2.7%) and down 0.4 percentage points from October 2024 (3.0%).

There were 3.3 unemployed persons for every job vacancy in October 2025, little changed from September. On a year-over-year basis, the unemployment-to-job vacancy ratio was up by 0.5. This reflected a decrease in the number of job vacancies (-64,800; -12.2%, excluding the territories), coupled with an increase in the number of unemployed persons (+81,000; +5.5%). Over the same period, the unemployment rate rose from 6.6% to 6.9% (according to the Labour Force Survey). The unemployment-to-job vacancy ratio excludes the territories for consistency with the comparable Labour Force Survey data.

Job vacancies decrease in four sectors and increase in one

In October, job vacancies were down in finance and insurance (-4,500 to 14,300), administrative and support, waste management and remediation services (-3,200 to 23,200), real estate and rental and leasing (-1,600 to 6,300), as well as information and cultural industries (-1,100 to 6,700). Meanwhile, job vacancies increased in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction (+1,400 to 5,000).

In administrative and support, waste management and remediation services, the decline in October brought the number of vacancies (23,200) to a level comparable with January 2016. The job vacancy rate in the sector fell to 2.7% in October 2025, the lowest since comparable data became available in the Job Vacancy and Wage Survey in April 2015.

On a year-over-year basis, the job vacancy rate fell in 11 out of 20 sectors in October 2025. Health care and social assistance (-1.0 percentage points to 3.8%) saw the largest percentage point decline in the job vacancy rate, followed by agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting (-0.8 percentage points to 2.9%) and transportation and warehousing (-0.7 percentage points to 2.6%).

The only sector to record a year-over-year increase was manufacturing, where the job vacancy rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 2.2% in October. This increase in the job vacancy rate in manufacturing was primarily due to the decline in payroll employment over the period.

Job vacancy rate down in seven provinces on a year-over-year basis

Year over year, the job vacancy rate in October was down in seven provinces, with Saskatchewan (-0.8 percentage points to 2.8%), Manitoba (-0.7 percentage points to 2.7%) and British Columbia (-0.7 percentage points to 3.0%) recording the largest declines.

In October, there were 7.2 unemployed persons for every job vacancy in Newfoundland and Labrador, the highest ratio among the provinces. In comparison, the unemployment-to-job vacancy ratio was lowest in Quebec (2.3), followed by Saskatchewan (2.5) and Manitoba (2.7).

Products

More information about the concepts and use of the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours is available in the Guide to the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (Catalogue number72-203-G).

The product “Earnings and payroll employment in brief: Interactive app” (14200001) is now available. This interactive data visualization application provides a comprehensive picture of the Canadian labour market using the most recent data from the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours. The estimates are seasonally adjusted and available by province and largest industrial sector. Historical estimates that go back 10 years are also included. The interactive application allows users to explore and personalize the information presented quickly and easily. Combine multiple provinces and industrial sectors to create your own labour market domains of interest.

Contact information

For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact us (toll-free 1-800-263-1136; 514-283-8300; infostats@statcan.gc.ca) or Media Relations (statcan.mediahotline-ligneinfomedias.statcan@statcan.gc.ca).